Sorted Recent Tweets


US Economy


  • Two bright spots in the US Economy: Manufacturing Oil & Gas Is housing next? $$ #cyclicals Feb 09, 2012
  • @The_Analyst That’s one reason why I typically don’t comment on nonfarm payrolls; calculation of the number is complex; hard to analyze. $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Farmers Plan Biggest Crops Since 1984, Led by Corn Farmers put Vegas to shame when it comes to risk. #rolldembones $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Total Says SunPower Can Withstand China Solar Panel Competition FD: long $TOT ; Watch other solar companies fold $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • American exposure What r the odds that continued European crisis will throw sand in2 the gears of America’s recovery? Feb 07, 2012
  • I think CR is right if we limit it to the housing that the GSEs lend on; I don’t think it is true of the… Feb 07, 2012




  • A few thoughts about the Euro snafu… The cost of Greece leaving the Euro would be very high… but so is the status quo. Feb 10, 2012
  • Inside the Head of Mario Draghi Favors large banks and an expanded role for central institutions in the Eurozone $$ Feb 10, 2012
  • On Banknotes Of safe boxes & paper money, particularly 1000 CHF-notes. Quick, hide $$ 4 a store of value against chaos! Feb 10, 2012
  • Graphic detail: European banks five-year subordinated CDS HT @Alea_ The LTRO has decreased EZ-bank CDS & raised stocks. Feb 10, 2012
  • Euro Finance Chiefs to Defer on Greece They await the deeds, rather than hearing the words $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Sarkozy Most Unpopular as Election Nears Confronting Unprecedented Rebound Broader EZ effects: policy disagreements Feb 09, 2012
  • Homeowners Who Would Be Moguls Make Comeback in UK Back a lot sooner than I expected or hoped. Spec leverage rises $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • UK Failure, Contagion, and Musings on Switzerland Euro Banking crisis -> Swiss crisis -> like Iceland ^ Banks/GDP $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • European repo has been contained! The ink on the LTRO is still wet, what happens when it the refi date comes? $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Europe Crisis Cuts at French Welfare State Pretty gloomy article. No wonder Sarkozy is doing badly in the polls. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Merkel Approval at Highest Level Since ’09 Coalition wouldn’t have a governing majority if elections were held now $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Irish Urge Children to Leave as Export Gain Masks Lost Jobs Perhaps we should call this the Irish export jobs famine. Feb 07, 2012
  • Denmark’s Credit Crunch Worsening as Retrenching Banks Spur Vicious Circle What did Soros say? Feb 07, 2012


Quantitative Investing/Methods


  • @kyles09 Where do you get figures for implied correlation? Pretty certain the figure I cited was for realized. Feb 10, 2012
  • Jeremy Grantham’s investing strategies for 2012 Favors: Quality & Value stocks, developed mkts. Dis: Bonds & Emerg mkts Feb 10, 2012
  • Defensive Stocks Lose First Time Since 1999 as Equities Resume Bull Market Odd, but telling of how surprised most are Feb 09, 2012
  • @tomkeene Simple ARMA models are used by those that have no structural model, & r highly subject to abuse, torturing data to make it confess Feb 09, 2012
  • The Inner Broker Resurfaces Correlations r down. Stock-picking returns. But why have correlations fallen? Ideas? $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • @DavidSchawel @PlanMaestro When I ran option hedging auctions among inv banks, we got the best execution when we limited the # & went AON $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Technical indicators point to need for caution I’ve been selling little by little into the rally. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Contra: PRESENTING: The Great Market Disconnect Seen All Around The Globe No reason y they should b connected $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • A Market Timing Rule that Works Volatility timing reduces portfolio volatility by 1/3 w/o sacrificing total return $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Contra: Is the 4% Rule Still Viable? I expected better from Smartmoney; a 4%/yr distribution is liberal if anything Feb 08, 2012
  • Stocks are cheap! Expensive! Comes down to your view on where profit margins are going $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Dividends Are All The Rage – The Clamour For Equity Yield Low growing dividends w/strong BalSht is the preferred combo Feb 08, 2012
  • Hedge Fund profits flow mostly to Industry Insiders W/2 & 20%, it takes a lot of gross returns 2 give big net 2 clients Feb 07, 2012
  • Contra: Junk Bonds Still Offer Margin for Error When Tsy rates r low, normal junk spreads s/b higher & reflect risk Feb 07, 2012
  • Buy growth and inflation hedge vehicles Model moves from neutral to Inflation. Commodity prices jumpy of late $$ #boing Feb 07, 2012

Fed Policy / Banking


  • Fed’s ‘Operation Twist’ Tangles Treasury Trade Fed has acquired 20-30Y Tsys = 91% of new issuance post-Twist. $$ Feb 10, 2012
  • Banks Not Off Hook With $25B Mortgage Agreement Only takes care of securitization, & not origination/underwriting $$ Feb 10, 2012
  • Why Dodd-Frank has already failed Regulators didn’t use their tools in the last boom, so better tools won’t help. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Bernanke Talks His Book Inflation implied by TIPS has been rising over the last four months, w/Ben Bernanke silent $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Investors too complacent with the Fed’s pledge? Volatility on a number of swaptions r multiple standard devs cheap $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Global liquidity fail — the role of skewed incentives Liquidity is more tenuous when leverage is layered $$ #dominos Feb 08, 2012
  • Bernanke Economy Shows Critics Wrong on Fed Too early. Sterilized base money takes 5-7 years 2 produce inflation $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • The Fed’s next hike will come at the end of 2014 Too definite. The economy is always more volatile than expected $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • The Fed Votes No Confidence Charles Schwab argues that overly loose Fed policy unnerves economic decisionmakers $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • Banks Pay Homeowners to Avoid Foreclosures ‘Bout time. Now we can clear the decks on the low end of housing $$ Feb 07, 2012


Politics / Governement


  • Judge Suggests US Misled Court on Immigration Policy What happens when #SCOTUS is deceived & issues opinion off it? Feb 10, 2012
  • I’ve interacted with Bruce Bueno De Mesquita over his book. It’s a good book, but a lot… Feb 10, 2012
  • USPS Loses $3.3B, Warns of Cash Drain The loss is for the last quarter; somthing is going to have to give here. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Contra: Live, From the Nation’s Capital, the Supreme Court Big mistake if #SCOTUS televises; cheapens deliberations. Feb 09, 2012
  • World Food Prices Rose Most in 11 Months #Agflation continues; we can print $$, credit, but can’t print food. Feb 09, 2012
  • Misreading Catholic Barometer Is a Political Risk Amer Catholics favor contraception, but dislike dissing bishops Feb 09, 2012
  • @ToddSullivan “Voting no were Reps. John Campbell (R-Calif.) and Rob Woodall (R-Ga.)” $$ Wonder what they own? Feb 09, 2012
  • “Can you imagine if you had to exchange your currency every time you crossed the state line?” The Confederation come… Feb 09, 2012
  • LA’s Six-Figure Carpenters Show Clout of Utility Union Nice work if you can get it; pity the poor taxpayers though $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Buffett Wants to Pay Higher Taxes—on Less Than 1% of His Income Buffett asks for tax raises where he does not earn Feb 08, 2012
  • Is falling U.S. unemployment a statistical mirage? More on the falling labor participation rate & discouraged workers Feb 08, 2012
  • Not a Fan of Santorum, but anything that deadlocks the Republican Convention is a good thing. Here is for someone totally new. Feb 08, 2012
  • The optimal endgame for the Republicans is that the convention deadlocks, & they choose someone else. The four remaining r fatally flawed $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • 6 Catholics he may not want 2 offend: #SCOTUS RT @BloombergView: @RameshPonnuru on Obama’s smackdown of Catholics $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • For Sale: AIG’s Subprime Bonds Color me wrong on this one; never thought the loan would get paid back at par $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • Are Credit Ratings Massively Overrated? Acid test: will regulators outsource the credit risk function to a formula? $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • Answer: Unlikely, because then they have no one to blame when something goes wrong. $$ Feb 07, 2012


Asset Management


  • Vanguard’s Forex-Hedged Foreign Bond ETFs Frustrating to see them finally do a foreign bond fund & then they hedge. Ugh Feb 09, 2012
  • Buffett: Bonds Among Most Dangerous Assets Loss of purchasing power, default, w/no upside. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • The Difference Between Owners and CEOs Companies w/dominant shareholders are typically more price-sensitive on buybacks Feb 09, 2012
  • everything is connected Very difficult to improve overall processes inside investment firms w/o looking @ everything $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • The twilight of the Bond King Long article, but way 2 early 2 write off Bill Gross. Pimco primer: Feb 09, 2012
  • RT @Frank_McG: @AlephBlog reminds me when nortel mkt cap eclipsed sum of same for all cad banks, back in 2000 – the new math….for a w … Feb 08, 2012
  • Merely to claim that $AAPL is an outlier begs the question of data reasonableness. Anyone know what had the largest negative surprise? Feb 08, 2012
  • Apple Results Distorting S&P 500 Earnings, Golub Says If you’re going to remove the best, then remove the worst too Feb 08, 2012
  • sudden shifts in capital flows – a risk for EM investors Increases in reserves can lead to asset bubbles. $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • BlackRock’s Fink Says Be 100% in Equities That’s quite a call; leaven it with short hi-qual debt and long Tsys $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Gold not a reliable inflation hedge A lot depends on how long the hedge horizon is; noisy in short-run certainly $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • The End of Wall Street As They Knew It Continued delevering means opportunities in finance r limited & so is future pay Feb 07, 2012
  • Just wanted to highlight a blog that has been having a discussion w/ @epicureandealmaker : Synthetic Assets Good stuff Feb 07, 2012
  • Gorman Embracing Vegemite in New Wall Street’s 15% Bogey at Morgan Stanley $MS looking more promising currently $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap $FNF is one bizarre company, almost like a merchant bank. Now that mortgages aren’t a gravy train, they go elsewhere $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • Why Dividend Stocks Aren’t the New Bonds Just because a stock pays a div doesn’t mean it ceases 2b a stock #caploss Feb 07, 2012


Money Market Funds (Resulted in this article)


  • @MarcHochstein worth to be published daily? Didn’t think so, and I am generally one that favors FMV acctg. FM NAV is a useful internally. Feb 09, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein I say that b/c a published floating NAV would cause more instability. Would bankers like the fair market value of bank net + Feb 09, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein Reinforces my view that academic economists r more frequently wrong than those working in business. We deal w/real world. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Money market mutual funds provide more transparency than banks frequent disclosure down 2 the individual security level Feb 09, 2012
  • Will SEC Rules Make Treasurers Flee Money-Market Funds? If I were a treasurer, I would probably buy CP directly. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Simplifies my logic & pushes it forward RT @MarcHochstein: @AlephBlog you’re the Blog of the Day, hope I did it justice Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein You did it justice. Thanks, many thanks. Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein Had some interesting arguments with the folks at . They seem to be playing for all marbles, and will lose. Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein I’m an actuary by training, and have developed stable value funds w/more complex protections, this one is simple, FWIW Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein I’ve actually talked w/some in the MMF industry; they prefer that nothing be done; I don’t think that’s realistic politically Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein So if the loss at the MMF had the NAV down to .9925, renormalizing to 1.0025 means ~1% of shares would disappear. Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein But it has to be lower than 1.005, or you’d have to set the NAV @ 1.01, which MMF don’t want. 1.0025 is the average. Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein 1.0025 is artificial; it just has to be great than 1 so that a run increases the NAV, and biases yields higher in the future Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein Yes, the number of shares is reduced, and the NAV re-normalized @ 1.0025, so that if there is a run, the MMF strengthens Feb 08, 2012
  • Ready for the next great ETF? Because of the undue persecution of money market funds,there is a lack of demand for A2/P2 commercial paper $$ Feb 08, 2012




  • Blogosphere, We Get It… Checked my blog. Only said “we get it” twice in 5 yrs & always followed by the word “wrong.” $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • And the point is, I get it wrong. Frequently. In economics & investing, the game isn’t simply 2 avoid errors, but 2 minimize their damage $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Kauffman Blogger Survey: Economic Sexiness Coming A mixed group of forecasters sees better times ahead $$ Feb 07, 2012




  • How to Be a Better Boss? Spend Time on the Front Lines Mgrs can learn a lot by spending time in the trenches $$ Feb 10, 2012
  • Best Disclaimer Language Ever “The future is unknowable. We have good intentions but all of our projections and…” $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • MF Global Trustee Sheds New Light on Chaos at Firm Key Q: how much $$ transferred in final 5 days can b clawed back? Feb 07, 2012



  • HistorySquared says:

    Although biased, the formatted tweet summary is clean and gives a lot of information in a compact format. I like it. Cheers.

    • Thanks, HS. Between you sharing your tweets, and my readers asking for my tweets, I started sharing them.

      Then I realized like my beginnings at the blog, that by categorizing my news coverage, I could cover areas better, and readers could choose what they wanted to look into easier.

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