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Sorted Recent Tweets


US Economy


  • Two bright spots in the US Economy: Manufacturing Oil & Gas Is housing next? $$ #cyclicals Feb 09, 2012
  • @The_Analyst That’s one reason why I typically don’t comment on nonfarm payrolls; calculation of the number is complex; hard to analyze. $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Farmers Plan Biggest Crops Since 1984, Led by Corn Farmers put Vegas to shame when it comes to risk. #rolldembones $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Total Says SunPower Can Withstand China Solar Panel Competition FD: long $TOT ; Watch other solar companies fold $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • American exposure What r the odds that continued European crisis will throw sand in2 the gears of America’s recovery? Feb 07, 2012
  • I think CR is right if we limit it to the housing that the GSEs lend on; I don’t think it is true of the… Feb 07, 2012




  • A few thoughts about the Euro snafu… The cost of Greece leaving the Euro would be very high… but so is the status quo. Feb 10, 2012
  • Inside the Head of Mario Draghi Favors large banks and an expanded role for central institutions in the Eurozone $$ Feb 10, 2012
  • On Banknotes Of safe boxes & paper money, particularly 1000 CHF-notes. Quick, hide $$ 4 a store of value against chaos! Feb 10, 2012
  • Graphic detail: European banks five-year subordinated CDS HT @Alea_ The LTRO has decreased EZ-bank CDS & raised stocks. Feb 10, 2012
  • Euro Finance Chiefs to Defer on Greece They await the deeds, rather than hearing the words $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Sarkozy Most Unpopular as Election Nears Confronting Unprecedented Rebound Broader EZ effects: policy disagreements Feb 09, 2012
  • Homeowners Who Would Be Moguls Make Comeback in UK Back a lot sooner than I expected or hoped. Spec leverage rises $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • UK Failure, Contagion, and Musings on Switzerland Euro Banking crisis -> Swiss crisis -> like Iceland ^ Banks/GDP $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • European repo has been contained! The ink on the LTRO is still wet, what happens when it the refi date comes? $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Europe Crisis Cuts at French Welfare State Pretty gloomy article. No wonder Sarkozy is doing badly in the polls. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Merkel Approval at Highest Level Since ’09 Coalition wouldn’t have a governing majority if elections were held now $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Irish Urge Children to Leave as Export Gain Masks Lost Jobs Perhaps we should call this the Irish export jobs famine. Feb 07, 2012
  • Denmark’s Credit Crunch Worsening as Retrenching Banks Spur Vicious Circle What did Soros say? Feb 07, 2012


Quantitative Investing/Methods


  • @kyles09 Where do you get figures for implied correlation? Pretty certain the figure I cited was for realized. Feb 10, 2012
  • Jeremy Grantham’s investing strategies for 2012 Favors: Quality & Value stocks, developed mkts. Dis: Bonds & Emerg mkts Feb 10, 2012
  • Defensive Stocks Lose First Time Since 1999 as Equities Resume Bull Market Odd, but telling of how surprised most are Feb 09, 2012
  • @tomkeene Simple ARMA models are used by those that have no structural model, & r highly subject to abuse, torturing data to make it confess Feb 09, 2012
  • The Inner Broker Resurfaces Correlations r down. Stock-picking returns. But why have correlations fallen? Ideas? $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • @DavidSchawel @PlanMaestro When I ran option hedging auctions among inv banks, we got the best execution when we limited the # & went AON $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Technical indicators point to need for caution I’ve been selling little by little into the rally. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Contra: PRESENTING: The Great Market Disconnect Seen All Around The Globe No reason y they should b connected $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • A Market Timing Rule that Works Volatility timing reduces portfolio volatility by 1/3 w/o sacrificing total return $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Contra: Is the 4% Rule Still Viable? I expected better from Smartmoney; a 4%/yr distribution is liberal if anything Feb 08, 2012
  • Stocks are cheap! Expensive! Comes down to your view on where profit margins are going $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Dividends Are All The Rage – The Clamour For Equity Yield Low growing dividends w/strong BalSht is the preferred combo Feb 08, 2012
  • Hedge Fund profits flow mostly to Industry Insiders W/2 & 20%, it takes a lot of gross returns 2 give big net 2 clients Feb 07, 2012
  • Contra: Junk Bonds Still Offer Margin for Error When Tsy rates r low, normal junk spreads s/b higher & reflect risk Feb 07, 2012
  • Buy growth and inflation hedge vehicles Model moves from neutral to Inflation. Commodity prices jumpy of late $$ #boing Feb 07, 2012

Fed Policy / Banking


  • Fed’s ‘Operation Twist’ Tangles Treasury Trade Fed has acquired 20-30Y Tsys = 91% of new issuance post-Twist. $$ Feb 10, 2012
  • Banks Not Off Hook With $25B Mortgage Agreement Only takes care of securitization, & not origination/underwriting $$ Feb 10, 2012
  • Why Dodd-Frank has already failed Regulators didn’t use their tools in the last boom, so better tools won’t help. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Bernanke Talks His Book Inflation implied by TIPS has been rising over the last four months, w/Ben Bernanke silent $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Investors too complacent with the Fed’s pledge? Volatility on a number of swaptions r multiple standard devs cheap $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Global liquidity fail — the role of skewed incentives Liquidity is more tenuous when leverage is layered $$ #dominos Feb 08, 2012
  • Bernanke Economy Shows Critics Wrong on Fed Too early. Sterilized base money takes 5-7 years 2 produce inflation $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • The Fed’s next hike will come at the end of 2014 Too definite. The economy is always more volatile than expected $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • The Fed Votes No Confidence Charles Schwab argues that overly loose Fed policy unnerves economic decisionmakers $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • Banks Pay Homeowners to Avoid Foreclosures ‘Bout time. Now we can clear the decks on the low end of housing $$ Feb 07, 2012


Politics / Governement


  • Judge Suggests US Misled Court on Immigration Policy What happens when #SCOTUS is deceived & issues opinion off it? Feb 10, 2012
  • I’ve interacted with Bruce Bueno De Mesquita over his book. It’s a good book, but a lot… Feb 10, 2012
  • USPS Loses $3.3B, Warns of Cash Drain The loss is for the last quarter; somthing is going to have to give here. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Contra: Live, From the Nation’s Capital, the Supreme Court Big mistake if #SCOTUS televises; cheapens deliberations. Feb 09, 2012
  • World Food Prices Rose Most in 11 Months #Agflation continues; we can print $$, credit, but can’t print food. Feb 09, 2012
  • Misreading Catholic Barometer Is a Political Risk Amer Catholics favor contraception, but dislike dissing bishops Feb 09, 2012
  • @ToddSullivan “Voting no were Reps. John Campbell (R-Calif.) and Rob Woodall (R-Ga.)” $$ Wonder what they own? Feb 09, 2012
  • “Can you imagine if you had to exchange your currency every time you crossed the state line?” The Confederation come… Feb 09, 2012
  • LA’s Six-Figure Carpenters Show Clout of Utility Union Nice work if you can get it; pity the poor taxpayers though $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Buffett Wants to Pay Higher Taxes—on Less Than 1% of His Income Buffett asks for tax raises where he does not earn Feb 08, 2012
  • Is falling U.S. unemployment a statistical mirage? More on the falling labor participation rate & discouraged workers Feb 08, 2012
  • Not a Fan of Santorum, but anything that deadlocks the Republican Convention is a good thing. Here is for someone totally new. Feb 08, 2012
  • The optimal endgame for the Republicans is that the convention deadlocks, & they choose someone else. The four remaining r fatally flawed $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • 6 Catholics he may not want 2 offend: #SCOTUS RT @BloombergView: @RameshPonnuru on Obama’s smackdown of Catholics $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • For Sale: AIG’s Subprime Bonds Color me wrong on this one; never thought the loan would get paid back at par $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • Are Credit Ratings Massively Overrated? Acid test: will regulators outsource the credit risk function to a formula? $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • Answer: Unlikely, because then they have no one to blame when something goes wrong. $$ Feb 07, 2012


Asset Management


  • Vanguard’s Forex-Hedged Foreign Bond ETFs Frustrating to see them finally do a foreign bond fund & then they hedge. Ugh Feb 09, 2012
  • Buffett: Bonds Among Most Dangerous Assets Loss of purchasing power, default, w/no upside. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • The Difference Between Owners and CEOs Companies w/dominant shareholders are typically more price-sensitive on buybacks Feb 09, 2012
  • everything is connected Very difficult to improve overall processes inside investment firms w/o looking @ everything $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • The twilight of the Bond King Long article, but way 2 early 2 write off Bill Gross. Pimco primer: Feb 09, 2012
  • RT @Frank_McG: @AlephBlog reminds me when nortel mkt cap eclipsed sum of same for all cad banks, back in 2000 – the new math….for a w … Feb 08, 2012
  • Merely to claim that $AAPL is an outlier begs the question of data reasonableness. Anyone know what had the largest negative surprise? Feb 08, 2012
  • Apple Results Distorting S&P 500 Earnings, Golub Says If you’re going to remove the best, then remove the worst too Feb 08, 2012
  • sudden shifts in capital flows – a risk for EM investors Increases in reserves can lead to asset bubbles. $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • BlackRock’s Fink Says Be 100% in Equities That’s quite a call; leaven it with short hi-qual debt and long Tsys $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Gold not a reliable inflation hedge A lot depends on how long the hedge horizon is; noisy in short-run certainly $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • The End of Wall Street As They Knew It Continued delevering means opportunities in finance r limited & so is future pay Feb 07, 2012
  • Just wanted to highlight a blog that has been having a discussion w/ @epicureandealmaker : Synthetic Assets Good stuff Feb 07, 2012
  • Gorman Embracing Vegemite in New Wall Street’s 15% Bogey at Morgan Stanley $MS looking more promising currently $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap $FNF is one bizarre company, almost like a merchant bank. Now that mortgages aren’t a gravy train, they go elsewhere $$ Feb 07, 2012
  • Why Dividend Stocks Aren’t the New Bonds Just because a stock pays a div doesn’t mean it ceases 2b a stock #caploss Feb 07, 2012


Money Market Funds (Resulted in this article)


  • @MarcHochstein worth to be published daily? Didn’t think so, and I am generally one that favors FMV acctg. FM NAV is a useful internally. Feb 09, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein I say that b/c a published floating NAV would cause more instability. Would bankers like the fair market value of bank net + Feb 09, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein Reinforces my view that academic economists r more frequently wrong than those working in business. We deal w/real world. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Money market mutual funds provide more transparency than banks frequent disclosure down 2 the individual security level Feb 09, 2012
  • Will SEC Rules Make Treasurers Flee Money-Market Funds? If I were a treasurer, I would probably buy CP directly. $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • Simplifies my logic & pushes it forward RT @MarcHochstein: @AlephBlog you’re the Blog of the Day, hope I did it justice Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein You did it justice. Thanks, many thanks. Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein Had some interesting arguments with the folks at . They seem to be playing for all marbles, and will lose. Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein I’m an actuary by training, and have developed stable value funds w/more complex protections, this one is simple, FWIW Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein I’ve actually talked w/some in the MMF industry; they prefer that nothing be done; I don’t think that’s realistic politically Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein So if the loss at the MMF had the NAV down to .9925, renormalizing to 1.0025 means ~1% of shares would disappear. Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein But it has to be lower than 1.005, or you’d have to set the NAV @ 1.01, which MMF don’t want. 1.0025 is the average. Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein 1.0025 is artificial; it just has to be great than 1 so that a run increases the NAV, and biases yields higher in the future Feb 08, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein Yes, the number of shares is reduced, and the NAV re-normalized @ 1.0025, so that if there is a run, the MMF strengthens Feb 08, 2012
  • Ready for the next great ETF? Because of the undue persecution of money market funds,there is a lack of demand for A2/P2 commercial paper $$ Feb 08, 2012




  • Blogosphere, We Get It… Checked my blog. Only said “we get it” twice in 5 yrs & always followed by the word “wrong.” $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • And the point is, I get it wrong. Frequently. In economics & investing, the game isn’t simply 2 avoid errors, but 2 minimize their damage $$ Feb 08, 2012
  • Kauffman Blogger Survey: Economic Sexiness Coming A mixed group of forecasters sees better times ahead $$ Feb 07, 2012




  • How to Be a Better Boss? Spend Time on the Front Lines Mgrs can learn a lot by spending time in the trenches $$ Feb 10, 2012
  • Best Disclaimer Language Ever “The future is unknowable. We have good intentions but all of our projections and…” $$ Feb 09, 2012
  • MF Global Trustee Sheds New Light on Chaos at Firm Key Q: how much $$ transferred in final 5 days can b clawed back? Feb 07, 2012


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3 Responses to Sorted Recent Tweets

  1. HistorySquared says:

    Although biased, the formatted tweet summary is clean and gives a lot of information in a compact format. I like it. Cheers.

    • Thanks, HS. Between you sharing your tweets, and my readers asking for my tweets, I started sharing them.

      Then I realized like my beginnings at the blog, that by categorizing my news coverage, I could cover areas better, and readers could choose what they wanted to look into easier.


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.

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