Archive for February 21st, 2012

Individual Investing Can Be Tough, Redux

Tuesday, February 21st, 2012

I have many software robots that scan for responses to what I write.  Most come directly to me.  Some do not like this one at Seeking Alpha:

Merkel’s reasons are, to be blunt, stupid.

1: Its too crowded and there is too much competition: While his goals may be to outperform many of us just want to build wealth.
2: Too much information: Just ignore the stuff that is unimportant. More information the better it certainly beats how things were decades ago.
3: “We are in a macroeconomic environment where we are delevering. That is not the best environment for making money”
For someone claiming 20 years of experience that is incredible naive.

First, we build wealth in competition with others, and the competition has grown, not shrunk.  The anomalies the allowed smaller investors to prosper are for the most part well-known.  Whether they are over-fished is another matter.  I think that previously profitable strategies still have value to the degree that they are ignored as no longer valuable.

Second, yes there is way too much noise, and I even create some of it.  Yes, I try to filter the information I receive, but I receive a ton of it, and filters are not perfect.  Please tell me how to construct a perfect filter, because mine are imperfect.  If we could create perfect filters we would be very, very rich, unlike me and the commenter.

Third, I don’t get the last comment, except that the person does not understand that periods where lending is expanding usually offers the highest returns for risk assets.  Presently we are contracting.

If I am naive, it is that I am an idealist.  I want better economic policy, and see lousy governance at the Fed, Treasury, and State levels.  As a result, on average, I see low real returns for assets over the next 5-10 years, unless policy changes dramatically.

 

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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