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On Fourth Quarter 13Fs

I often look through 13F filings to get investment ideas.  The last time I did it, one of my readers asked a question like this:

It’s nice to see how large the positions are of the investors that you track, but wouldn’t it be better to track the changes in positions?  After all, new allocations are more indicative of better value than older holdings.

That’s probably correct, though for my own investing it might not be as accurate, because I rank current positions against challengers – my current positions have to justify their existence to stay in the portfolio.

But I thought it would be worth trying to do that, and also do it as a percentage of each stock’s market capitalization.

Now, there are difficulties in doing an analysis like this:

  • CUSIP changes
  • M&A (takeovers, spinoffs
  • CUSIP formats (some managers make it difficult to read)
  • Deliberately difficult formatting
  • One firm fills out the from wrong, swapping fields
  • Multiple holders within a given firm
  • You have to create a CUSIP/ticker database (paid my 13-year old assistant $50 to do that.)
  • In short, a lot of data scrubbing.

Now the results of looking at 13Fs can be valuable, and there is a small cottage industry doing so.  Mebane Faber has done good work with this, as has Insider Monkey, Manual of Ideas and Street of Walls.  Following the ideas of some of the best investors leads to better returns, even if there is a lag involved.

And the lag doesn’t matter much.  Most of these investors invest for years not months, so if you get a signal it should be valid for some time after it is received.

Anyway, I calculated the positions for 74 investors that I have some respect for (listed at the bottom).  My objective is to look at them as a group.  For the most part, I don’t care which of them is investing in a given company.

Following this are a variety of tables with some commentary on what might be going on.  I think you might find some valuable ideas in the companies where  there are large additions or holdings as a proportion of market capitalization.

Tables

Stocks with the most new investors:

NewTickerName

9

DLPHDelphi Automotive PLC

6

LVLTLEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS INC

6

LMCALIBERTY MEDIA CORP NEW

5

ORCLOracle Corp

4

TRIPTRIPADVISOR INC

4

KORSMICHAEL KORS HLDGS LTD

3

BACBANK OF AMERICA CORP

3

CVXCHEVRON CORP NEW

3

DELLDell Inc

3

EPEL PASO CORP

3

VRUSPHARMASSET INC

3

TDCTERADATA CORP

 

Stocks that had the most investors increase positions (including new owners):

IncreasedTickerName

15

GOOGGOOGLE INC.

9

DLPHDelphi Automotive PLC

9

AAPLAPPLE INC

8

ORCLOracle Corp

7

LMCALIBERTY MEDIA CORP NEW

7

CCITIGROUP INC

7

LOWLOWES COS INC

7

PEPPEPSICO INC

7

MSFTMICROSOFT CORP

7

VVisa Inc-Class A Shares

6

LVLTLEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS INC

6

INTCIntel Corporation

6

SYYSYSCO CORP

 

Stocks that have the most owners at the end of the fourth quarter:

OwnedTickerName

22

GOOGGOOGLE INC.

21

MSFTMICROSOFT CORP

17

AAPLAPPLE INC

14

CSCOCISCO SYS INC COM

14

WMTWAL-MART STORES INC

14

WFCWELLS FARGO & CO NEW

13

JNJJOHNSON & JOHNSON

12

ORCLOracle Corp

12

CCITIGROUP INC

12

MAMastercard Inc – Class A

11

BACBANK OF AMERICA CORP

11

BRK.BBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B

11

BRK.ABERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL A

 

Stocks with the most selling out entirely (including M&A-related):

SoldTickerName

6

EXPEExpedia Inc.

6

LVLTLevel 3 Communications

5

CCITIGROUP INC

5

SINASINA CORP

5

AcquiredNALCO HOLDING COMPANY

4

EBAYEBAY INC

4

CVICVR Energy Inc

4

CCECOCA COLA ENTERPRISES INC NE

3

LINTALIBERTY INTERACTIVE CORP-A

3

CVSCVS CAREMARK CORPORATION

3

AMZNAMAZON COM INC

3

VIABViacom Inc Cl B

3

EXCExelon Corp

3

DVNDEVON ENERGY CORPORATION

3

COVCOVIDIEN PLC

3

XOMEXXON MOBIL CORP

3

MOSThe Mosaic Company

3

RLRALPH LAUREN CORP

3

IRMIRON MTN INC

3

HFCHOLLYFRONTIER CORP

3

GRGOODRICH CORP

3

CTXSCITRIX SYS INC

3

AcquiredCEPHALON INC

3

ELNKEARTHLINK INC

3

TINTEMPLE INLAND INC

 

Stocks with the most decreases in positions (including selling out in entire):

DecreasedTickerName

12

MSFTMICROSOFT CORP

10

WFCWELLS FARGO & CO NEW

10

CCITIGROUP INC

8

BACBANK OF AMERICA CORP

8

PFEPFIZER INC

8

EBAYEBAY INC

8

NWSANEWS CORP

8

LINTALIBERTY INTERACTIVE CORP-A

7

AAPLAPPLE INC

7

CSCOCISCO SYS INC COM

7

WMTWAL-MART STORES INC

7

BRK.BBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B

7

CVSCVS CAREMARK CORPORATION

7

DELLDell Inc

7

AONAON CORP

7

AMZNAMAZON COM INC

7

EXPEExpedia Inc.

 

With a few exceptions, the above reads like lists of common large cap stocks, with a few midcaps thrown in.  It doesn’t look that much different when the lists are done by dollar amount of change.  But what if we do this as a fraction of market capitalization?

(Please note, the 13F filings measure as of 12/31/2011, and my market caps are from mid-February.  That induces some distortion, but I don’t think that much.  Also note that large holdings as aproportion of market cap often come from one hedge fund and not necessarily many.

Here is a list of new purchases, in declining order of percentage of market capitalization:

NewTickerName

16.50%

TRGTTARGACEPT INC

15.02%

DLPHDelphi Automotive PLC

10.73%

CMVTCOMVERSE TECHNOLOGY INC

10.54%

NTKNORTEK INC

7.54%

AROAeropostale Inc

6.41%

MTGMGIC INVT CORP WIS

6.21%

HIIHUNTINGTON INGALLS INDS INC

5.76%

IREBank of Ireland

5.64%

TRIPTRIPADVISOR INC

5.08%

LMCALIBERTY MEDIA CORP NEW

4.75%

AVYAvery Dennison

4.58%

SEMGSEMGROUP CORP

4.41%

VPRTVISTAPRINT N V

4.25%

MPCMARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

3.92%

CSTRCOINSTAR INC

3.49%

SBHSALLY BEAUTY HLDGS INC

3.44%

KMTKennametal Inc.

3.34%

SIROSirona Dental Systms

3.18%

EPEL PASO CORP

3.10%

HGGHHGREGG INC

3.06%

CVICVR Energy Inc

3.04%

NTAPNETAPP INC

 

Here is a list of position increases, including new purchases, in declining order of percentage of market capitalization:

IncreasedTickerName

16.50%

TRGTTARGACEPT INC

15.02%

DLPHDelphi Automotive PLC

10.77%

CPCANADIAN PAC RY LTD

10.73%

CMVTCOMVERSE TECHNOLOGY INC

10.54%

NTKNORTEK INC

8.55%

WBMDWEBMD HEALTH CORP

7.54%

AROAeropostale Inc

6.57%

NAVNavistar International Corp

6.41%

MTGMGIC INVT CORP WIS

6.21%

HIIHUNTINGTON INGALLS INDS INC

5.76%

IREBank of Ireland

5.74%

AVYAvery Dennison

5.64%

TRIPTRIPADVISOR INC

5.19%

LMCALIBERTY MEDIA CORP NEW

4.58%

SEMGSEMGROUP CORP

4.48%

EPAXAmbassadors Group Inc.

4.44%

CBGCBRE GROUP INC

4.42%

CSTRCOINSTAR INC

4.41%

VPRTVISTAPRINT N V

4.25%

MPCMARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

4.08%

PCLNPRICELINE COM INC

 

Here is a list of position decreases, including total sales, in declining order of percentage of market capitalization:

DecreasedTickerName

-17.83%

VGRVECTOR GROUP LTD

-13.66%

EMMSEMMIS COMMUNICATIONS CORP

-10.43%

DIODDIODES INC

-9.12%

CLXClorox Co

-9.02%

NEWPNEWPORT CORP

-8.93%

IWMISHARES TR

-8.61%

EXPEExpedia Inc.

-6.86%

GENGENON ENERGY INC

-6.60%

PANLUNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP

-6.43%

LVLTGLOBAL CROSSING LTD

-6.32%

AAMRQAMR Corp

-6.22%

NIHDNII HLDGS INC

-6.15%

CVICVR Energy Inc

-6.03%

AMEDAMEDISYS INC

-5.85%

CISCAMELOT INFORMATION

-5.60%

SINASINA CORP

-5.46%

CQBCHIQUITA BRANDS INTL INC

-5.44%

STESTERIS CORP

-5.37%

CJESC&J ENERGY SERVICES INC

-5.30%

PDLIPDL BIOPHARMA INC

 

Here is a list of positions sold out in entire, in declining order of percentage of market capitalization:

SoldTickerName

-17.83%

VGRVECTOR GROUP LTD

-13.66%

EMMSEMMIS COMMUNICATIONS CORP

-10.43%

DIODDIODES INC

-9.08%

CLXClorox Co

-9.02%

NEWPNEWPORT CORP

-7.41%

EXPEExpedia Inc.

-6.60%

PANLUNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP

-6.56%

IWMISHARES TR

-6.43%

LVLTGLOBAL CROSSING LTD

-6.32%

AAMRQAMR Corp

-6.22%

NIHDNII HLDGS INC

-6.03%

AMEDAMEDISYS INC

-5.85%

CISCAMELOT INFORMATION

-5.60%

SINASINA CORP

-5.27%

CQBCHIQUITA BRANDS INTL INC

-5.10%

CVICVR Energy Inc

-4.97%

ITGARTNER INC

-4.90%

ACFCAtlantic Coast Financial Corp

-4.73%

BIDZBIDZ.com Inc.

-4.55%

CVCCABLEVISION SYS CORP

-4.52%

SAFMSANDERSON FARMS INC

-4.32%

LEALEAR CORP

-4.31%

TINTEMPLE INLAND INC

-4.05%

WGOWINNEBAGO INDS INC

 

Holdings by Total Dollar Amount at the end of the Fourth Quarter

HeldTickerName
  15,763,863,000KOCOCA COLA COMPANY
  13,896,920,000WFCWELLS FARGO & CO NEW
  11,801,570,000IBMINTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHS
     7,498,749,000AXPAMERICAN EXPRESS CO
     7,124,564,000PGPROCTER & GAMBLE CO/THE
     5,561,149,000WMTWAL-MART STORES INC
     4,965,749,000KFTKRAFT FOODS INC-CLASS A
     4,828,136,000MSFTMICROSOFT CORP
     4,720,375,000GOOGGOOGLE INC.
     4,539,055,000NWSANEWS CORP
     4,504,224,000AAPLAPPLE INC
     4,007,205,000HPQHEWLETT PACKARD CO
     3,387,821,000MSIMOTOROLA SOLUTIONS INC
     3,285,855,000GLDSPDR GOLD TRUST
     3,261,413,000GSKGLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC-SPON ADR
     3,137,451,000JNJJOHNSON & JOHNSON
     3,106,083,000USBUS BANCORP DEL
     3,089,445,000FDXFEDEX CORP
     2,986,973,000COFCAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP
     2,869,898,000EPEL PASO CORP
     2,836,729,000IEPICAHN ENTERPRISES LP
     2,809,578,000SLBSchlumberger Ltd
     2,807,657,000NVSNOVARTIS AG-ADR
     2,776,985,000BKBANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP
     2,762,244,000COPCONOCOPHILLIPS
     2,704,595,000PEPPEPSICO INC
     2,620,576,000CMCSACOMCAST CORP-CLASS A
     2,618,651,000PFEPFIZER INC
     2,524,873,000DELLDell Inc
     2,475,713,000GEGENERAL ELECTRIC CO
     2,321,383,000OXYOCCIDENTAL PETE CORP DEL
     2,314,288,000TWXTIME WARNER INC
     2,290,333,000MRKMERCK & CO. INC.
     2,252,588,000AONAON CORP
     2,246,712,000DTVDIRECTV-CLASS A
     2,205,486,000PCLNPRICELINE COM INC
     2,166,225,000MMIMOTOROLA MOBILITY HLDGS INC
     2,124,678,000SNYSANOFI-ADR
     2,075,367,000QCOMQUALCOMM INC

 

And the greatest holdings by percentage of market capitalization:

Held/MCTickerName

73.30%

IEPICAHN ENTERPRISES LP

71.98%

BAGLEINSTEIN NOAH REST GROUP INC

69.22%

HRGHARBINGER GROUP INC

65.92%

FDMLFEDERAL MOGUL CORP

51.38%

SPBSPECTRUM BRANDS HLDGS INC

46.89%

ARIIAMERICAN RAILCAR INDS INC

40.88%

CDCOComdisco Holding

38.77%

NOANORTH AMERN ENERGY PARTNERS

37.92%

DYNDYNEGY INC DEL

36.46%

BFLYBLUEFLY INC

32.11%

LEAPLEAP WIRELESS INTL INC

29.37%

QUADQUAD / GRAPHICS INC

29.34%

TXITexas Industries Inc.

28.92%

BIOFBIOFUEL ENERGY CORP

27.83%

ENZNENZON PHARMACEUTICALS INC

27.56%

HPPHUDSON PAC PPTYS INC

27.54%

BKUBANKUNITED INC

27.54%

OSTKOVERSTOCK COM INC DEL

27.35%

SIXSIX FLAGS ENTMT CORP NEW

26.41%

DINDINEEQUITY INC

26.27%

WPOWashington Post

26.04%

LORLLORAL SPACE & COMMUNICATNS INC

25.12%

LGFLIONS GATE ENTMNT CORP

25.00%

VSATVIASAT INC

24.85%

JEFJEFFERIES GROUP INC NEW

24.71%

INSINTELLIGENT SYS CORP NEW

24.59%

LVLTLEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS INC

24.21%

ZLCZALE CORP NEW

23.40%

ABHABITIBIBOWATER INC

23.19%

CTOConsolidated Tomoka Land Co

22.71%

XCOEXCO RESOURCES

22.34%

THRXTHERAVANCE INC

22.28%

MLIMUELLER INDS INC

21.96%

MSIMOTOROLA SOLUTIONS INC

21.49%

SNBCSun Bancorp Inc

 

I appreciate the analysis as a portion of market capitalization, because it reflects the limitations of what managers can do.  Again, I will look most closely at current holdings and additions as a proportion of market capitalization.

Investor list:

  • Akre
  • Altai
  • Ancient Art
  • Appaloosa
  • Atlantic
  • Bares
  • Baupost
  • Blue Ridge
  • BP Capital (Pickens)
  • Brave Warrior
  • Breeden
  • BRK
  • Capital Growth
  • Centaur
  • Centerbridge
  • Chou
  • Coatue
  • Dodge & Cox
  • Dreman
  • Eagle Capital
  • Eagle Value
  • Edinburgh
  • Fairfax
  • Farallon
  • Fiduciary
  • Force
  • FPA
  • Gates
  • Glenview
  • GoldenTree
  • Greenhaven
  • Greenlight
  • H Partners
  • Harbinger
  • Hawkshaw
  • Hayman
  • Hound
  • Hovde
  • Icahn
  • Invesco Private
  • Jana
  • Jensen
  • Joho
  • Lane Five
  • Leucadia
  • Lone Pine
  • M3F
  • Markel
  • Matrix
  • Maverick
  • MHR
  • Montag
  • MSD
  • Muhlenkamp
  • PabraI
  • Parnassus
  • Passport
  • Paulson
  • Pennant
  • Perry
  • Pershing Square
  • Sageview
  • Scout
  • Soros
  • Southeastern
  • Third Point
  • Tiger Global
  • Tweedy Browne
  • ValueAct
  • Viking
  • Weitz
  • West Coast
  • Wintergreen
  • Yacktman

 

Full disclosure: Long WMT, ORCL, INTC, VOD, HPQ, COP, Short SPY






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One Response to On Fourth Quarter 13Fs

  1. [...] Fourth quarter 13F review, and what the hedgies like the [...]

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


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