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Sorted Weekly Tweets

Here’s the news of the past week:

US Economy

 

  • How the Government Lies About the Real Inflation Rate http://t.co/g6E4KxV5 I agree inf is understated, but by 1-2%, not 6-8%/yr $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Tax Hunt Pushes Global Wealthy Into Offshore Trusts for Children in US http://t.co/l53hjFH1 Many clever ways 2cheat the taxman #thinkahead Mar 07, 2012
  • How Much Do Income Taxes Affect Our Behavior? http://t.co/mADKt7a7 Answer: not much, but people favor lower marginal tax rates anyway $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • On Politics, Social Security and Spine http://t.co/N8O1Eu6h @brucekrasting on the Disability Income Trust & what it implies 4 politics $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Why Young People Might (Eventually) Like to Buy a House http://t.co/yC9FX7H5 On the low end, this makes sense at present. $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Getting Ready to Buy a House http://t.co/6aqzzPmI Megan McArdle notes how low down payments r still prevalent; system not clean @ present $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Warren Buffett vs. the profiteers of doom http://t.co/02XgQ9tB Unless the US fails in entire, Buffett will be right & the scaremongers wrong Mar 06, 2012
  • NACM credit managers’ index trade credit increase http://t.co/LUdFkYTZ Businesses r more confident in extending credit; coincident indicator Mar 04, 2012
  • @DavidSchawel Then they are having materially better performance than the FHA; I still think housing prices have further to fall on hi end Mar 04, 2012
  • Your Share of Fannie, Freddie Losses: $1,300 http://t.co/h9KdR5d3 Even considering what they are paying the US in dividends, they lose. $$ Mar 03, 2012

 

Federal Reserve

  • @GonzaloLiraSPG Borrow, not print. Fed becomes huge hedge fund 2 arb risky debt spreads. Not in favor of this, but it is happening in small Mar 09, 2012
  • Thought experiment: What would happen if the Fed borrowed enough money to buy up all of the MBS, CMBS, ABS, Agys, Corps, Munis, etc? $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • What the Fed is Considering Doing in Layman’s Terms http://t.co/dXZTMXL2 Levering up, taking more risk in an effort to reduce long yields $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Bernanke Seen Accepting Faster Inflation as Fed Seeks to Boost Employment http://t.co/AyixImcf Fed is asymmetric, only fights unemployment Mar 08, 2012
  • http://t.co/DR8SLua2 NY Fed never buys the on-the-run and near the run nominal bonds, does the opposite for TIPS, pushes up implied CPI $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Fed’s Money Monopoly Endangers Liberty and Peace http://t.co/TGhcvm8O Unsound money encourage governments 2b graspy & warlike $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Central bank policy driving corporate spreads http://t.co/YvV1djQb When the Fed offers cheap financing, risk asset flourish $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Woodlands congressman battling Federal Reserve’s power http://t.co/iUiwTimH Inflation only, expand role of Regional Feds; Fisher likes it $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • The eventual unwinding of QE: why it’s ignored and what it could mean http://t.co/BPRMaGaU The Fed will be reluctant 2 shrink the Bal Sht $$ Mar 03, 2012

 

Eurozone

 

  • Draghi Lays Groundwork for ECB Stimulus Exit as Inflation Takes Spotlight http://t.co/0y5znzjH So u can’t get inflation thru debt growth? Mar 09, 2012
  • Bond And CDS Arbitrage Opportunities? http://t.co/uRDRh59G Sov CDS “cheap” 2 bonds b/c of a lack of trust in the default trigger $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Portugal. Boo! http://t.co/ZED0TWOx Mar 09, 2012
  • Draghi Headache: Inflation Heating Up in Europe http://t.co/RQqvvOiC Draghi raised the 2012 forecasts for inflation to 2.1%-2.7% $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • Rift Grows Between Germany’s Bundesbank and ECB http://t.co/trwAlyWm Wise Buba will take pain where ECB wil not. Follow this it will destroy Mar 08, 2012
  • Goldman’s Secret Greece Loan Reveals Sinners http://t.co/eMzOvs2X When u conspire 2b shady, u work w/the shady, who will cheat u2 $GS $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • French-German Border Shapes More Than Territoryhttp://nyti.ms/zDuqpi Culture matters. Policy matters. Similar people yield different results Mar 06, 2012
  • Everyone Loves Mario http://t.co/2sDYYNXh Draghi is popular at present, but this will not end well, b/c bank dependence on the ECB will tell Mar 04, 2012
  • The optimistic view of Europe http://t.co/xtsVrfrY Rogoff argues that these are the birth pangs of the USE: the United States of Europe $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • IMF Set to Curb Funds for Greece http://t.co/XvNhtAcm IMF has 2 much exposure to EZ-fringe; could it b global system hit peak debt? $$ Mar 04, 2012

 

Economics

 

  • An interesting model of asset bubbles http://t.co/cHcFGHht Follows the debt-fueled model of asset bubbles, with momentum tossed in $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Model Thinking Notes I from Stanford Class http://t.co/qHD0UCzt Those applying models to political questions predict better than others $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Investors Crave a Taste of the Island http://t.co/fjWsoVDR Amazing how reducing deficits and cleaning up finances can bring growth $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Cicero quote of the week http://t.co/Y1e6KKYL The budget should b balanced, the Treasury should b refilled, public debt should b reduced… Mar 08, 2012
  • Kindleberger’s Universal Bubble and Crash Scenario http://t.co/Og2VYsX8 We are overindebted, should we be surprised that we face a crisis? Mar 08, 2012
  • After 3 years, we’re all hooked on free money http://t.co/oKRDzSPD Low base rates are creating a new kind of inflation, sad but true $$ Mar 08, 2012

 

China

 

  • Contra: China Inflation May Provide Room for Stimulus http://t.co/Qds1uBwx That is, if you can believe the Chinese inflation statistics $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Asian banks may b bust; tiger still bites http://t.co/2mW40PMJ Economic consultancy Lombard Street warned China is financial house of cards Mar 08, 2012
  • According to Credit Suisse, the global commodity demand has peaked http://t.co/GNXsHZwL China cannot increase its demand further $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • China Life Discount Swells on World Growth Woes http://t.co/Jl27DtCk I still don’t get China Life and its business model; avoid b careful Mar 08, 2012
  • China needs to enhance ability to win ‘local wars’, Premier says http://t.co/THUVeHVe Dominance of the South China Sea is desired $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • China’s State of the Union http://t.co/D2E2yaH0 China has fewer options by the day. GDP is shrinking because much production is worthless $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • +1 $$ RT @The_Analyst: @AlephBlog ha, newsflash: people whose livlihood depends on strong real estate market say market is strong… Mar 04, 2012
  • End of The World not nigh, say developers http://t.co/JTDwPtT3 A lot of cross-currents in Chinese property markets, suspect trouble $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • China’s Politics in Rare Bloom http://t.co/kmDFW8ou A rare season where the hidden politics of China become publicly visible $$ Mar 04, 2012

 

Miscellaneous

 

  • ‘Internet-in-a-Suitcase’: The Web Technology That Wants You to Be Free http://t.co/UXTNOHDo Not live yet, but coming 2a revolution near u Mar 09, 2012
  • Wal-Mart Therapy Tried as Pentagon Copes With Traumatized Troops http://t.co/7YIU2yqJ long $WMT | PTSD? Trips 2 WMT may help, really. $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • US public schools sell empty classroom seats abroad http://t.co/qTuefNqV Solves a tough problem 4 rural districts w/falling enrollment $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • US Top Destination for Christian, Buddhist Immigrants, Study Says http://t.co/gZW6T62o Interesting commentary on religion & migration $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • The Confucius quote is a lot like Hillel’s “Do not do unto others what you would not hav… http://t.co/XplJNuew Mar 07, 2012
  • RE: @dcrothers This is too important to be left to preschools only. Mothers and fathers must take an active role in t… http://t.co/4je2nZj2 Mar 06, 2012

 

Markets

 

  • Insurers to re-examine risk, capital structure in 2012 – PwC http://t.co/1Cl8bTc1 Low ins co valuations begets low interest for M&A $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Contra: Apollo Wants to ‘Be the New Bank’ in 2012, Co-Founder Rowan Says http://t.co/HjfMo5xx Might work in short-run; dangerous idea $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Tactical asset allocation — Another ripoff http://t.co/NVCwvCCQ During bear markets, TAA gains temporary cache as market timing $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • Think Twice, Even Thrice, Before Trading http://t.co/618YZMAB Most of the time, trading leads to losses, people like the illusion of control Mar 08, 2012
  • Trade to improve your portfolio http://t.co/fINnnvh1 Features thoughts of those who agree. When will average people listen to the good guys? Mar 08, 2012
  • The mystery of the vanishing stock trader http://t.co/y0jvQ6F8 Volume is disappearing in Canada. That’s probably healthy; buy Canada $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • @CflGator My simple solution to all of that is that only hedgers may initiate trades, speculators may not trade with speculators. $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Contra: Managed money goes LONG oil http://t.co/SartTMgC In mid-2008, there weren’t as many speculative longs & the price was far higher $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Companies Float Up to $20 Billion in Bonds http://t.co/CJTnGiTE If that much is getting digested easily, maybe the corp rally continues Mar 07, 2012
  • @lcsonka39 @hedgefundinvest I did use the words “if” and “maybe.” I am far enough away that I’m not sure, but I have been through that b4 $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • US Insurers Face $2 Billion in Claims From Tornadoes, Risk Modeler Says http://t.co/N6vW1uIn I would expect a rough weather year $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • IBM’s Watson Computer Gets Wall Street Job http://t.co/qP2mlQDZ Bloodless. Soulless. Brilliant. Ultimate Risk Manager or Disaster Creator Mar 07, 2012
  • Judge: Jefferson County Chapter 9 Case Can Continue http://t.co/MGn2sDTD Remember Ch 9 only gives breathing room, Empee benes relief $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Do You Need to Buy Big Oil Stocks? http://t.co/FlPMNBXN Arends: As fuel prices soar (again), it may make sense to invest where you spend Mar 06, 2012
  • How To Make Financial Content http://t.co/NRLLm00B Funny takes from @reformedbroker on how various news organizations write their copy $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Demographic trends will depress portfolio returns, this researcher warns http://t.co/yDXh8J8C Arnott makes u look at the real economy $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Stocks Cheaper Than Any U.S. Peak in 23 Years http://t.co/wZAnn7Ij Key Q: what will profit margins do? Only will 2 use capital is scarce Mar 06, 2012
  • Milwaukee’s Home-Grown Managers Shun Fads http://t.co/oSzOOjMh My hometown. People there are rational and not given to fads. $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Dan Zwirn, the Man Who Fell to Earth http://t.co/NmgWpqRm Grew hedge fund fast, inadequate operational support, scandal, business dies $$ Mar 04, 2012

 

International (rest of the world)

 

  • One Year Later, Japan City Sees Light—in a Long Tunnel http://t.co/3JfbCqWG Too much $$ being tossed at too few people in short-run Mar 09, 2012
  • Australian vs Canadian property http://t.co/7Q3pdBP1 Argues that Canada is in trouble, Australia in worse shape but a better economy for now Mar 07, 2012
  • Faros Trading: Yen to Weaken http://t.co/cSAp3Fra & http://t.co/aJkOCcXQ Idea that the yen may weaken is gaining traction $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Canadian envoy to Iceland sparks loonie controversy http://t.co/QZfE9Kvi Hey, I would link to the loonie if I could, smart idea $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • BRIC Investors Losing as Statists Forgo Earnings http://t.co/kuntGmOJ Worrisome trend, but political influence on firms tends 2b cyclical Mar 04, 2012
  • Why Japan Is Looking Good http://t.co/trw811WG Argues that QE weakens the yen, leading to better corp performance of f low valuation $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • London Is Eating New York’s Lunch http://t.co/UBEFijF7 London has a greater share of international transactions; New York too regulated $$ Mar 04, 2012

 

Politics

 

  • Romney campaign says losing nomination would take ‘act of God’ http://t.co/Q0VS1qRV Whom God would destroy, he first makes proud #hubris $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Paralyzed Kids Employ Florida Lobbyists With Millions at Stake http://t.co/fmS5UIHu When there r damage caps, pleading 4 special exceptions Mar 07, 2012
  • Hoping for a deadlocked convention that turns to Huckabee, or someone like him http://t.co/OCRBjpXF Mar 03, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense I do not trust Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich. They change positions too easily. I may not like everything about Huckabee+ Mar 04, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense or Ron Paul, but they don’t shift their views as much. Huckabee would be acceptable to both wings of the GOP. $$ Mar 04, 2012





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One Response to Sorted Weekly Tweets

  1. izimbra says:

    “Buy Canada” – It would be interesting to see more discussion and debate about that point. Some issues: are declines in Canadian exports to the U.S. – especially oil and timber – mainly in a secular decline or a cyclical one? If you acted on buy Canada, what vehicles would you choose? (I’d probably go with HEW.TO – an equal weight ETF on the TSE).

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


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