The Aleph Blog » Blog Archive » Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Here’s the news of the past week:

US Economy


  • How the Government Lies About the Real Inflation Rate I agree inf is understated, but by 1-2%, not 6-8%/yr $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Tax Hunt Pushes Global Wealthy Into Offshore Trusts for Children in US Many clever ways 2cheat the taxman #thinkahead Mar 07, 2012
  • How Much Do Income Taxes Affect Our Behavior? Answer: not much, but people favor lower marginal tax rates anyway $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • On Politics, Social Security and Spine @brucekrasting on the Disability Income Trust & what it implies 4 politics $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Why Young People Might (Eventually) Like to Buy a House On the low end, this makes sense at present. $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Getting Ready to Buy a House Megan McArdle notes how low down payments r still prevalent; system not clean @ present $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Warren Buffett vs. the profiteers of doom Unless the US fails in entire, Buffett will be right & the scaremongers wrong Mar 06, 2012
  • NACM credit managers’ index trade credit increase Businesses r more confident in extending credit; coincident indicator Mar 04, 2012
  • @DavidSchawel Then they are having materially better performance than the FHA; I still think housing prices have further to fall on hi end Mar 04, 2012
  • Your Share of Fannie, Freddie Losses: $1,300 Even considering what they are paying the US in dividends, they lose. $$ Mar 03, 2012


Federal Reserve

  • @GonzaloLiraSPG Borrow, not print. Fed becomes huge hedge fund 2 arb risky debt spreads. Not in favor of this, but it is happening in small Mar 09, 2012
  • Thought experiment: What would happen if the Fed borrowed enough money to buy up all of the MBS, CMBS, ABS, Agys, Corps, Munis, etc? $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • What the Fed is Considering Doing in Layman’s Terms Levering up, taking more risk in an effort to reduce long yields $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Bernanke Seen Accepting Faster Inflation as Fed Seeks to Boost Employment Fed is asymmetric, only fights unemployment Mar 08, 2012
  • NY Fed never buys the on-the-run and near the run nominal bonds, does the opposite for TIPS, pushes up implied CPI $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Fed’s Money Monopoly Endangers Liberty and Peace Unsound money encourage governments 2b graspy & warlike $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Central bank policy driving corporate spreads When the Fed offers cheap financing, risk asset flourish $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Woodlands congressman battling Federal Reserve’s power Inflation only, expand role of Regional Feds; Fisher likes it $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • The eventual unwinding of QE: why it’s ignored and what it could mean The Fed will be reluctant 2 shrink the Bal Sht $$ Mar 03, 2012




  • Draghi Lays Groundwork for ECB Stimulus Exit as Inflation Takes Spotlight So u can’t get inflation thru debt growth? Mar 09, 2012
  • Bond And CDS Arbitrage Opportunities? Sov CDS “cheap” 2 bonds b/c of a lack of trust in the default trigger $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Portugal. Boo! Mar 09, 2012
  • Draghi Headache: Inflation Heating Up in Europe Draghi raised the 2012 forecasts for inflation to 2.1%-2.7% $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • Rift Grows Between Germany’s Bundesbank and ECB Wise Buba will take pain where ECB wil not. Follow this it will destroy Mar 08, 2012
  • Goldman’s Secret Greece Loan Reveals Sinners When u conspire 2b shady, u work w/the shady, who will cheat u2 $GS $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • French-German Border Shapes More Than Territory Culture matters. Policy matters. Similar people yield different results Mar 06, 2012
  • Everyone Loves Mario Draghi is popular at present, but this will not end well, b/c bank dependence on the ECB will tell Mar 04, 2012
  • The optimistic view of Europe Rogoff argues that these are the birth pangs of the USE: the United States of Europe $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • IMF Set to Curb Funds for Greece IMF has 2 much exposure to EZ-fringe; could it b global system hit peak debt? $$ Mar 04, 2012




  • An interesting model of asset bubbles Follows the debt-fueled model of asset bubbles, with momentum tossed in $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Model Thinking Notes I from Stanford Class Those applying models to political questions predict better than others $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Investors Crave a Taste of the Island Amazing how reducing deficits and cleaning up finances can bring growth $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Cicero quote of the week The budget should b balanced, the Treasury should b refilled, public debt should b reduced… Mar 08, 2012
  • Kindleberger’s Universal Bubble and Crash Scenario We are overindebted, should we be surprised that we face a crisis? Mar 08, 2012
  • After 3 years, we’re all hooked on free money Low base rates are creating a new kind of inflation, sad but true $$ Mar 08, 2012




  • Contra: China Inflation May Provide Room for Stimulus That is, if you can believe the Chinese inflation statistics $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Asian banks may b bust; tiger still bites Economic consultancy Lombard Street warned China is financial house of cards Mar 08, 2012
  • According to Credit Suisse, the global commodity demand has peaked China cannot increase its demand further $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • China Life Discount Swells on World Growth Woes I still don’t get China Life and its business model; avoid b careful Mar 08, 2012
  • China needs to enhance ability to win ‘local wars’, Premier says Dominance of the South China Sea is desired $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • China’s State of the Union China has fewer options by the day. GDP is shrinking because much production is worthless $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • +1 $$ RT @The_Analyst: @AlephBlog ha, newsflash: people whose livlihood depends on strong real estate market say market is strong… Mar 04, 2012
  • End of The World not nigh, say developers A lot of cross-currents in Chinese property markets, suspect trouble $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • China’s Politics in Rare Bloom A rare season where the hidden politics of China become publicly visible $$ Mar 04, 2012




  • ‘Internet-in-a-Suitcase’: The Web Technology That Wants You to Be Free Not live yet, but coming 2a revolution near u Mar 09, 2012
  • Wal-Mart Therapy Tried as Pentagon Copes With Traumatized Troops long $WMT | PTSD? Trips 2 WMT may help, really. $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • US public schools sell empty classroom seats abroad Solves a tough problem 4 rural districts w/falling enrollment $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • US Top Destination for Christian, Buddhist Immigrants, Study Says Interesting commentary on religion & migration $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • The Confucius quote is a lot like Hillel’s “Do not do unto others what you would not hav… Mar 07, 2012
  • RE: @dcrothers This is too important to be left to preschools only. Mothers and fathers must take an active role in t… Mar 06, 2012




  • Insurers to re-examine risk, capital structure in 2012 – PwC Low ins co valuations begets low interest for M&A $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Contra: Apollo Wants to ‘Be the New Bank’ in 2012, Co-Founder Rowan Says Might work in short-run; dangerous idea $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Tactical asset allocation — Another ripoff During bear markets, TAA gains temporary cache as market timing $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • Think Twice, Even Thrice, Before Trading Most of the time, trading leads to losses, people like the illusion of control Mar 08, 2012
  • Trade to improve your portfolio Features thoughts of those who agree. When will average people listen to the good guys? Mar 08, 2012
  • The mystery of the vanishing stock trader Volume is disappearing in Canada. That’s probably healthy; buy Canada $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • @CflGator My simple solution to all of that is that only hedgers may initiate trades, speculators may not trade with speculators. $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Contra: Managed money goes LONG oil In mid-2008, there weren’t as many speculative longs & the price was far higher $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Companies Float Up to $20 Billion in Bonds If that much is getting digested easily, maybe the corp rally continues Mar 07, 2012
  • @lcsonka39 @hedgefundinvest I did use the words “if” and “maybe.” I am far enough away that I’m not sure, but I have been through that b4 $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • US Insurers Face $2 Billion in Claims From Tornadoes, Risk Modeler Says I would expect a rough weather year $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • IBM’s Watson Computer Gets Wall Street Job Bloodless. Soulless. Brilliant. Ultimate Risk Manager or Disaster Creator Mar 07, 2012
  • Judge: Jefferson County Chapter 9 Case Can Continue Remember Ch 9 only gives breathing room, Empee benes relief $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Do You Need to Buy Big Oil Stocks? Arends: As fuel prices soar (again), it may make sense to invest where you spend Mar 06, 2012
  • How To Make Financial Content Funny takes from @reformedbroker on how various news organizations write their copy $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Demographic trends will depress portfolio returns, this researcher warns Arnott makes u look at the real economy $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Stocks Cheaper Than Any U.S. Peak in 23 Years Key Q: what will profit margins do? Only will 2 use capital is scarce Mar 06, 2012
  • Milwaukee’s Home-Grown Managers Shun Fads My hometown. People there are rational and not given to fads. $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Dan Zwirn, the Man Who Fell to Earth Grew hedge fund fast, inadequate operational support, scandal, business dies $$ Mar 04, 2012


International (rest of the world)


  • One Year Later, Japan City Sees Light—in a Long Tunnel Too much $$ being tossed at too few people in short-run Mar 09, 2012
  • Australian vs Canadian property Argues that Canada is in trouble, Australia in worse shape but a better economy for now Mar 07, 2012
  • Faros Trading: Yen to Weaken & Idea that the yen may weaken is gaining traction $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Canadian envoy to Iceland sparks loonie controversy Hey, I would link to the loonie if I could, smart idea $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • BRIC Investors Losing as Statists Forgo Earnings Worrisome trend, but political influence on firms tends 2b cyclical Mar 04, 2012
  • Why Japan Is Looking Good Argues that QE weakens the yen, leading to better corp performance of f low valuation $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • London Is Eating New York’s Lunch London has a greater share of international transactions; New York too regulated $$ Mar 04, 2012




  • Romney campaign says losing nomination would take ‘act of God’ Whom God would destroy, he first makes proud #hubris $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Paralyzed Kids Employ Florida Lobbyists With Millions at Stake When there r damage caps, pleading 4 special exceptions Mar 07, 2012
  • Hoping for a deadlocked convention that turns to Huckabee, or someone like him Mar 03, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense I do not trust Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich. They change positions too easily. I may not like everything about Huckabee+ Mar 04, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense or Ron Paul, but they don’t shift their views as much. Huckabee would be acceptable to both wings of the GOP. $$ Mar 04, 2012

Bonds, Fed Policy, Insurance, Macroeconomics, Portfolio Management, public policy, Stocks, Tweets | RSS 2.0 |

One Response to Sorted Weekly Tweets

  1. izimbra says:

    “Buy Canada” – It would be interesting to see more discussion and debate about that point. Some issues: are declines in Canadian exports to the U.S. – especially oil and timber – mainly in a secular decline or a cyclical one? If you acted on buy Canada, what vehicles would you choose? (I’d probably go with HEW.TO – an equal weight ETF on the TSE).


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.

Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.

Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

 Subscribe in a reader

 Subscribe in a reader (comments)

Subscribe to RSS Feed

Enter your Email

Preview | Powered by FeedBlitz

Seeking Alpha Certified

Top markets blogs award

The Aleph Blog

Top markets blogs Bull, Boards & Blogs

Blog Directory - Blogged

IStockAnalyst supporter

All Economists Contributor

Business Finance Blogs
OnToplist is optimized by SEO
Add blog to our blog directory.

Page optimized by WP Minify WordPress Plugin