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Book Review: How Markets Really Work

Do you want to make money in the short run? Beat the markets? This could be the book for you.

I am a longer-term investor, but  this book looks at a lot of strategies that are commonly understood by traders, and finds that the traders are wrong.

What are we talking about?  For the most part the book indicates that momentum strategies fail in the short run.  That’s not as radical as it sounds because the academic literature documents a short term reversal effect (one month) for stocks that are moving dramatically.

But this book shows the effect in many ways, looking at:

  • Changes vs 5 & 10-day highs/lows
  • When markets make higher highs or lower lows over three days
  • Days up or down in a row
  • Market Breadth
  • Large move up or down
  • Number of 52-week highs versus lows

When these factors are strong, the market tends to be weak in the short run.

Then there are these factors:

  • Volume
  • Put/Call ratio

They have little effect on future returns in the short run.  But what does have effect in the short run?

  • VIX
  • RSI(2)
  • Low Vol beats High Vol

High VIX relative to trend indicates a short-term rally, as does a low RSI(2) score.  As for the low volatility, it takes a different approach, segmenting the market by historical  volatility, and no surprise, low volatility wins.

At the end the book tries to draw all of the ideas into a trading strategy, but I have no idea how good it is, because I have no idea how many strategies they tested before announcing the one that fit the past the best.

This is an audacious book, but what would be needed to make this a great book is not what happens over the next five days, but what happens over the next year.  Capital does not recycle annually, much less weekly.

Most strategies that involve a lot of trading fail; this book may fall into that bucket.

Quibbles

Graph 3-7 is blank.

This is a very short book, with many graphs and tables taking up 80% of the book.  That can be a weakness or strength, depending on your point of view.

Who would benefit from this book: Those who want to improve their trading of the markets in the very short run would benefit from this book.  If you want to, you can buy it here: How Markets Really Work: Quantitative Guide to Stock Market Behavior (Bloomberg Financial).

Full disclosure: The publisher asked me if I wanted the book, so I asked for the book and he sent it to me.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.  This is my main source of blog revenue.  I prefer this to a “tip jar” because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.  Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don’t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don’t, I mention that I scanned the book.  Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.  Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.  Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don’t change.

 

 

 






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Book reviews, Portfolio Management, Speculation, Stocks | RSS 2.0 |

One Response to Book Review: How Markets Really Work

  1. [...] A review of How Markets Really Work by Laurence A. Connors.  (Aleph Blog) [...]

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


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