Central Banking
- Been using FRED since it was a bulletin board in 1991. Great job, FRED team! http://t.co/kksvwllM Mar 24, 2012
- The Villain http://t.co/yYReRb4r On Bernanke, the man who expanded the power of the Fed far beyond constitutional limits, if there r any $$ Mar 24, 2012
- Bernanke Sees Need for Higher Household Spending to Fuel Growth http://t.co/3LQUTGji Yes Ben, we will spend more while we are inverted $$ Mar 24, 2012
- Fed’s Evans Calls for Stronger Commitment to Low Rates http://t.co/vSKfU36q Read paper; don’t buy it. ARIMA, no out of sample tests $$ Mar 24, 2012
- Bernanke Says Low Rates Didn’t Fuel Bubble http://t.co/XlF50zKV Perhaps Bernanke can’t remember minor crisis; RMBS extension mid-2003 $$ Mar 24, 2012
- That crisis created a very sharp move up in rates http://t.co/jfNAVN3o $$ Mar 24, 2012
- Bernanke: the man, the legacy and the law http://t.co/zA7OeFc4 “courts have shied away from developing jurisprudence on monetary policy.” $$ Mar 24, 2012
- @fatdaz It is my firm belief that no economic entity can dominate entirely; central banks have been destroyed b4; will happen again $$ Mar 24, 2012
- Masters of the Universe Start to Challenge Ben Bernanke http://t.co/31Pr1yrQ Markets are more powerful than Central Banks, watch out Fed! Mar 23, 2012
- European Banks Would Have Passed Fed’s Stress Test http://t.co/z5bCBeYy Ultimate insult 4 stringency of Fed’s stress tests $$ #devildetails Mar 20, 2012
- Bernanke Stands to Gain Capital-Market Experts With Nominees http://t.co/oX8xOdEU We need some people that doubt neoclassical economics $$ Mar 20, 2012
- Bernanke Returns to Academic Roots to Justify Fed’s Existence http://t.co/ORfma5sE Safe audiences let him talk publicly w/little risk $$ Mar 20, 2012
- Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets http://t.co/CQu827KD Ignores E-Zone contagion, increase in int rate volatility, etc $$ Mar 19, 2012
- Bernanke: “I Want to Bring Back Irrational Exuberance” http://t.co/p0qlQwXe @brucekrasting on overheating in some debt asset classes $$ Mar 19, 2012
China
- Ai Weiwei: “You’re There but You’re Not Existing” http://t.co/d7mLxHXm RARE interview w/Ai Weiwei, describing his detention in China $$ Mar 24, 2012
- China’s stock-market supervision suffering http://t.co/QEBPC5ya “Understaffed securities regulator, weak legal system cited” $$ #nosurprise Mar 21, 2012
- @Roy_Cam They can’t make money b/c of overcapacity; China invested too much in steel & global growth stinks. US exports of steel r rising $$ Mar 20, 2012
- @Roy_Cam We only import 30% of steel used in US, 4% of which comes from China = 1.2% of steel used is from China http://t.co/FTWt80oa $$ Mar 20, 2012
- @Roy_Cam You are right there, and that’s one reason why profitability is declining in steel industry globally. $$ Mar 20, 2012
- China to increase fuel prices 6-7% http://t.co/dBwrepDj Pump prices at record highs; biggest rise since June 2009 #ouch $$ Mar 20, 2012
- Sad Industry Mantra: Make Steel, Lose Money http://t.co/Pu9e6qFj Insanity; doing same thing, expecting different results. Future bailout $$ Mar 20, 2012
- The State-Owned Enterprises of China http://t.co/55nvgUMs I think a “big bang” would work, but the Communist Party would never do it $$ #Mao Mar 20, 2012
- Chinese property *alert* http://t.co/eklWzXkU Property sales value contracted 20% year on year in the two months ending in February. $$ Mar 20, 2012
- China’s new home prices “no longer rising” http://t.co/UL4T3yzQ The Chinese Gov’t always gets what it wants, until it gets too much of it $$ Mar 19, 2012
- Chinese Companies Forced to Falsify Data, Government Says http://t.co/tH0MUiYn AN example of why I don’t trust Chinese economic data. $$ Mar 18, 2012
- @Xiphos_Trading Don’t know if there will be a crash or not, but there has been a lot of malinvestment in China, like Late 80s Japan $$ Mar 18, 2012
Europe
- Those Catchy Spanish (Yield) Curves http://t.co/qoGmGl7E Yields backing up in the Spanish bond market; this could be the next crisis $$ Mar 24, 2012
- Euro-Zone Banks Get Show of Faith http://t.co/ZWqd8Df5 US MMFs begin adding back yieldy E-zone bank CP $$ #wedontlearnwereallydontlearn Mar 24, 2012
- On second thought, hold off moving that business to Ireland http://t.co/Bdu6ezon Ireland heading into recession; possibility of default? $$ Mar 23, 2012
- @Mapsofworld Gun to the head, I think it fails entirely, but that opinion is not held with high probability $$ Mar 22, 2012
- @Mapsofworld If the E-zone doesn’t move 2a full fiscal union, the Euro will either fail entirely, or become the currency of a smaller group Mar 22, 2012
- The Safe Haven of the Nordic Currencies Is No More http://t.co/FquH5ZWW It’s a little early to get categorical about this $$ Mar 21, 2012
- A Wall St. Firm Advises Greece, With Discretion http://t.co/Y12GeNZq $BLK is one powerful firm that many govts in crisis turn 2 4 help $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Swiss Secrecy Besieged Makes Banks Fret World Money Lure Fading http://t.co/qV197Px1 What good r Swiss banks if no secrecy, tax evasion $$ Mar 20, 2012
- Germany on a Different Track http://t.co/Gl3BNXBA While Much of EZone Deals W/Busts, Property Prices r Rising in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich Mar 20, 2012
Rest of the World
- Israel Billionaires Put Own Interest Ahead of Holders http://t.co/QSTpBn6E What’s mine is mine; what’s yours is negotiable $$ Mar 24, 2012
- Late Shah’s Son Selected As Iran’s Person Of The Year http://t.co/phWmAFRQ This is VOA so take it w/a grain of salt; still funny 2thinkabout Mar 24, 2012
- Latin American Nations in Worse Shape for Crisis, IDB Says http://t.co/zlZvDJi4 “result of lower budget surpluses b4 interest payments” $$ Mar 20, 2012
- What is the real rate of interest telling us? http://t.co/Vbk13I02 Excess capacity in devel world post bubble pop, send cap 2 emerg mkts Mar 20, 2012
Insurance
- @CflGator Life companies should be simple, but product design exploded to the point where reserving can’t keep up; I own only 1 life co. Mar 24, 2012
- @CflGator Variable & Universal life products have secondary gtee issues; there r a variety of long dated term products w/rsv issues $$ Mar 24, 2012
- @CflGator and P&C insurance — life insurance is capital intensive; they are sticking with their simplest biz, aside from long-tail P&C $$ Mar 24, 2012
- @CflGator It really depends; they wrote a lot of complex life products. On the bright side, a company in runoff is a cash cow. $$ Mar 24, 2012
- @CflGator That’s the tough Q. $HIG offered significant secondary guarantees when they were the #1 annuity writer. May not b prop reserved $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Hartford Shares Jump On Split, Analysts Like It Too http://t.co/APFbv4UA Not so fast on $HIG; regulators must approve a split; c my cmmt Mar 21, 2012
- Should Hartford’s Annuity Holders Be Worried? http://t.co/HfuZO3QO Probably not; small annuitants have protection from guaranty funds $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Annuity Case Chills Insurance Agents http://t.co/rHkg68Lw I’m always skeptical of products w/high commissions & surrender charges $$ Mar 19, 2012
Fixed Income
- Why Fixed Income Funds May Fall Short http://t.co/cHmF3hOj On the difficulties of combating tracking error in fixed income ETFs. $$ Mar 24, 2012
- Top Junk Pummels Treasuries for Safest Profits http://t.co/E5vl2qHB That’s the rearview mirror; will be harder to squeeze more returns out Mar 21, 2012
- The differentiation of Agency MBS risk profiles http://t.co/IJN2mbCm Interesting to see long avg life on high coupon underwater mortgages $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Bond Bear Market Yet to Roar http://t.co/oNENX9jc The selloff has been piddling so far, has not affected equities, & it may reverse $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Do High Yield Bonds Know Something Stocks Don’t? http://t.co/986Evuok Equities & Inv Grade corps outperforming HY Corps- call provisions? $$ Mar 19, 2012
- RE: @thearmotrader Thanks, you did the post that I wanted to do. Now I just have to point to it. http://t.co/Ru22nvom Mar 19, 2012
Exchange Traded Products
- “@HerbGreenberg mentions that once the creation/redemption mechanism “breaks” (my word, not his), that the ETF/ETN sh… http://t.co/jxK0bZfX Mar 23, 2012
- RE: Not likely, but maybe. If they were forced to see that they were getting a negative (or very low positive) yield… http://t.co/nnxLt2oj Mar 23, 2012
- Exchange-Traded Notes Are Worse Than You Think http://t.co/FAO4IS3H Path-dependent fees, shadow NAVs, high fees, tracking error, credit risk Mar 21, 2012
- Who Uses Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Anyway? http://t.co/cYpkVMr5 Retail owns 80%+. Normal ETFs r mostly held by institutions $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Know Your Client – Leveraged ETF Version http://t.co/gqPtiZtF Doesn’t matter if leverage is internal or external, client needs come first $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Money Managers Serving Clients First, Ego Second http://t.co/gY9bd1iR Using the investment vehicles of competing firms — a good thing $$ Mar 21, 2012
- RE: @finadd “Our results indicate that the extensive purchases of risky private-label mortgage-backed securities by t… http://t.co/cn5TM1cR Mar 20, 2012
- @amy_calistri at the levels implied by the CEF pricing at some funds, it would shave the yield 3% $DHF $MAV $HIX, 5% $PHT, 12% $PHK $$ Mar 19, 2012
- @amy_calistri Right. I watch the premiums on credit-sensitive CEFs as a measure of frothiness. If the underlying at some HY CEFs were bot + Mar 19, 2012
- Anybody know what was up with $EFT today? Floating-rate loan CEF up 4%+, Closed near par last Friday… odd. $$ Mar 19, 2012
- ‘Junk’ ETFs: Tread Lightly http://t.co/lXftKjwB Check the Price vs the NAV before you buy; also, if w/ds start, index bonds will get hit Mar 19, 2012
Individual Equities
- Leon Black’s Bid Gets No Respect as Great Wolf Surges http://t.co/kqS6pNyU Used 2call this stock “little dog;” badly managed frm beginning Mar 24, 2012
- @merrillmatter Bezos is scary-smart. I don’t own $AMZN either $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Just watched it. Wow, very impressive RT @merrillmatter: Skynet shall be renamed SkyBezos — Order Fetch http://t.co/6l9R9bHn $$ Mar 21, 2012
- +1, ugh RT @abnormalreturns: [post] America officially ran out of good corporate names today. http://t.co/lLGEmeAB $ABT $KFT $AAPL $NKE $MCD Mar 21, 2012
- You’re on a roll today @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog soon our robot overlords will deliver our bread and circuses to us in the Bezos Colosseum Mar 21, 2012
- No RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog I want to start a consultancy that veto’s stupid company names. Would your anti-consultancy veto that?
Mar 21, 2012 - Amazon Wrings Profit From Fulfillment as Spending Soars http://t.co/McHUqMhe Tough work 4 laborers, though. $AMZN pushes pretty hard $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Kraft to Be Renamed Mondelez After Grocery Unit Is Spun Off http://t.co/GONE6x47 Pronounced “Mohn-dah-LEEZ.” Sigh, who got paid 4 this? $$ Mar 21, 2012
- The 400% Man’s New Big Bet http://t.co/33rHut9y Implicitly a bet that $BRKa will always be able to buy back stock @ 1.1x book value $$ Mar 21, 2012
- In a Major Restructuring, $HPQ To Combine Printer and PC Groups http://t.co/Aj3zaKaY FD: +HPQ; seems like a marginal idea, maybe works $$ Mar 20, 2012
- Why $HPQ Really Needs A CEO Succession Plan http://t.co/hkPDVkAy Good cultures should promote from within; HP used to have that $$ FD: +HPQ Mar 20, 2012
- Buffett Message Is ‘Do as I Say, Not as I Do’ http://t.co/Gcblc8oZ Alice Schroeder very acidic on Buffett; half right & half wrong $$ Mar 20, 2012
- $AAPL to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash http://t.co/uxf6jEBP About time, if there aren’t opps 2use the $$ Mar 19, 2012
Money Market Funds
- @MarcHochstein Thanks, I found the CFA Institutes comment today, and their view is similar 2 mine in some ways: http://t.co/8yPLcXfX $$ Mar 22, 2012
- @MarcHochstein investment restrictions moved back to 2008 norms. The ability 2 have credit events frees MMFs to pursue best advantage $$ Mar 21, 2012
- @MarcHochstein My idea will work 4 MMFs using inv policies prior 2 2008. The MMF folks aren’t earning $$ now, but they could with + Mar 21, 2012
- @MarcHochstein After reading this: http://t.co/aUoaN4kb Ask them, what if you traded Merkel’s idea 4 a loosening of investment rules? $$ Mar 21, 2012
- @MarcHochstein 1 more thing; if they have any sympathy toward my idea, I live near DC & would be willing to testify to the SEC $$ Mar 20, 2012
- @MarcHochstein Does that help? I still think my proposal, one of the few compromise proposals out there would work best of all. Mar 20, 2012
- @MarcHochstein Having been a life actuary, most regulatory progress happens when actuaries talk w/smarter regulators & forge compromise Mar 20, 2012
- @MarcHochstein Does that help? MMFs are just saying “We r fine, nothing needs 2b done.” 2me that strategy prob loses. Mar 20, 2012
- @MarcHochstein Would ask them if they have any way of stopping MMF runs on a private basis; this is the SEC goal; solve that, they leave Mar 20, 2012
- @MarcHochstein More humbly, I would ask them if they really think they can beat the SEC. SEC’s proposal is horrible, but saying “no” loses Mar 20, 2012
- @MarcHochstein Not so humbly, I would ask that u show them my proposal that I sent to the SEC, & ask them to back it http://t.co/vuNL8tQE Mar 20, 2012
Market Dynamics
- The Easy Money’s Been Made, Four Reasons for Caution http://t.co/9kAXqEU4 E-zone calm, risk tolerance+ , VIX low, FOMC may move soon Mar 24, 2012
- …and then all of a sudden, THE BULLS WENT BERZERK! http://t.co/bJKCVJha Lots of bullishness out there, though Howard Marks thought otherwise Mar 21, 2012
- @byrneseyeview That’s true, & I did a presentation on that. One more complicating factor were financials, which looked cheap but weren’t $$ Mar 21, 2012
- @byrneseyeview Found it. Here: http://t.co/YupRW6yD It’s on a number of topics; it was well-received $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Contra: The Biggest Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of http://t.co/0tzkPyiA Value can’t b a bubble. Growth can b a bubble. Growth & ROE meanrevert Mar 21, 2012
- Is this time really different? http://t.co/eePs0aIV It’s never different. It’s always different. Profit margins will mean-revert; Q is when Mar 21, 2012
- Biggs boosts bullish bets on stocks to 90% net long http://t.co/5fYQDhUC Won’t be the first 2 say this, but makes me doubt the rally $$ Mar 21, 2012
- The Ax is Back http://t.co/B1j3f7nH @reformedbroker Reduced profits on Wall Street translates into reduced perks, bonuses & jobs $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Public Companies: The End Is Near http://t.co/KejHwYDu There r still advantages 2being publicly traded, but has eroded since Sarbox, etc $$ Mar 20, 2012
- S&P 500 Rises to Four-Year High as Apple Plans Dividend http://t.co/RnBf9yEw $AAPL raises the div yld on the S&P 500 by 0.08%. Big! $$ Mar 19, 2012
- Shares and shibboleths http://t.co/CspyJCNX The equity premium over a diversified portfolio of investment grade bonds is ~1%/yr IMO $$ Mar 19, 2012
- Hubble, Bubble, Index Trouble http://t.co/2q3CPx4g Been saying this for years, indexing changes market dynamics, what happens @ reversal? $$ Mar 18, 2012
Politics
- Why Are Your Neighbors Just Like You? http://t.co/0lcPOuLZ On the demise of really knowing your neighbors; we try 2 reach out; few others do Mar 24, 2012
- @traderscrucible @interfluidity My blog (& Steve’s) have always had a strong public policy emphasis. Dreaming, but we suggest better policy. Mar 23, 2012
- Agent Based Models http://t.co/0etJ20fL “Why not keep it simple, and just say, you pay an asset tax for every dollar over $100B?” $$ Mar 23, 2012
- The Warren Buffett Chain Letter http://t.co/31FFSrmm Draconian adjustments. What Buffett did & didn’t say. 3% deficit ejects Congress $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Migration of sovereign debt from private hands to public institutions http://t.co/rQbDTXg3 &the debt sits til liquidity is needed -> crisis! Mar 21, 2012
- To Stay On Top, The US Must Invest In Research Universities http://t.co/P4kyUqY0 FD: + $INTC; do it w/yr own $$ not taxes; c my comment Mar 20, 2012
- RT @BarbarianCap: “cnbc: California Cities Scrambling to Avoid Becoming Insolvent” > the die was cast years ago; clowns, path depende … Mar 20, 2012
- Stopping the National Debt: A Movement Led By a Cowboy, a Colonel, & a Citizens’ Cavalry http://t.co/frqAXCpy Natl Debt Relief Amendment Mar 20, 2012
- Who is REALLY paying in the $25bil TBTF mortgage settlement http://t.co/T2h1B5CO $5B from banks, rest MBS holders eg pension plans, insurers Mar 19, 2012
- The JOBS Act: Plutocracy in Action http://t.co/Fjo3Ppet Another article on the previous topic; don’t downgrade information quality $$ Mar 19, 2012
- Small Biz Jobs Act Is a Bipartisan Bridge Too Far http://t.co/AwBXg184 Would not mess w/securities laws in that way to create growth $$ Mar 19, 2012
- Public Unions Send Medical Bills to Taxpayers http://t.co/Lb2XgAv9 CA Sup Ct foolishly makes healthcare nonreducible. CA will die $$ Mar 18, 2012
- As Unions Lose Their Grip, Indiana Lures Manufacturing Jobs http://t.co/vj177CT2 Like my article that few like http://t.co/WgdN7Mmq $$ Mar 18, 2012
- Pension Legislation Could Cut Contributions, Hike Taxes http://t.co/Tj1UlUz8 Stupid proposals that weaken DB pensions, companies r strongnow Mar 18, 2012
Regulation
- Where is the Center for Audit Quality When We Actually Could Use It? http://t.co/jWt09bcw JOBS Act: destroy info reliability to create jobs Mar 23, 2012
- Fed’s Fisher Says ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ Problem Remains http://t.co/eLvHGmXt Richard Fisher favors breakup of the biggest banks. $$ Mar 21, 2012
- @carney just read your piece on the net capital rule. Similar to my piece last November http://t.co/tl28NPku Good piece. $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Top Court’s Patent Rejection Alarms the Biotech Industry http://t.co/oK11WlvR ’bout time we forced a more fundamental review of patents Mar 21, 2012
Economics
- Solar’s 80% Plunge Hurts Utilities From Hawaii to Spain http://t.co/m9eACVTp Overcapacity drives down prices of PV panels for now. $$ Mar 21, 2012
- Mean Time Between Failures http://t.co/zkT0z9cX The “recovery” is getting long in the tooth, eg it may end soon; graph: http://t.co/xOHA1IYA Mar 20, 2012
- Obama’s tax hikes threaten a new US recession http://t.co/uNHwBpeJ Looking @ 4 more years of divided govt & stalemate $$ #debtbombgrows Mar 20, 2012
- @The_Dumb_Money I would have liked to see the Banks/Etc. who owned the servicers bear more of the cost $$ Mar 20, 2012
- Partial equilibrium intuitions about choice http://t.co/215kIrmS @interfluidity more difficult to solve general equilibrium Qs than partial Mar 19, 2012
- Understanding the New Price of Oil http://t.co/TaMTaneR No surprise here; most cheap oil has been found, the price of oil should rise $$ Mar 18, 2012
Miscellaneous
- @merrillmatter Factoid: 100,000,000,000 to 1 for a monkey to type the word “banana” from random typewriter jumping Mar 21, 2012
- Is a Calorie a Calorie? http://t.co/4hyTfSvr Yes, but different nutrients come w/calories. Also, a unit of fat has 2x cals vs carbs/protein Mar 21, 2012
- Madoff’s Lament: I Was An Honest Money Manager Once http://t.co/OGp2xRHR The outside world should ignore Madoff now. Attention feeds him. Mar 21, 2012
- Trust no one http://t.co/cFYBkCA7 & http://t.co/ILP0dPlA Independent & regular journalists face conflicts of interest in giving speeches $$ Mar 20, 2012
- On Slime and Water http://t.co/8iezy0FK Pink Slime in burgers, and shortages of potable water in most of the globe, except Canada & US. $$ Mar 18, 2012
- The NSA Is Building the Country’s Biggest Spy Center (Watch What You Say) http://t.co/iUsN5D0t Time to increase encryption key sizes $$ Mar 18, 2012
- @TimABRussell I always read all the books I review; in rare cases when I don’t, I tell readers that I skimmed it. $$ Mar 18, 2012
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Central Banking
· Been using FRED since it was a bulletin board in 1991. Great job, FRED team! http://t.co/kksvwllMMar 24, 2012 
· The Villain http://t.co/yYReRb4r On Bernanke, the man who expanded the power of the Fed far beyond constitutional limits, if there r any $$ Mar 24, 2012
· Bernanke Sees Need for Higher Household Spending to Fuel Growth http://t.co/3LQUTGji Yes Ben, we will spend more while we are inverted $$ Mar 24, 2012
· Fed’s Evans Calls for Stronger Commitment to Low Rates http://t.co/vSKfU36q Read paper; don’t buy it. ARIMA, no out of sample tests $$ Mar 24, 2012
· Bernanke Says Low Rates Didn’t Fuel Bubble http://t.co/XlF50zKV Perhaps Bernanke can’t remember minor crisis; RMBS extension mid-2003 $$ Mar 24, 2012
· That crisis created a very sharp move up in rates http://t.co/jfNAVN3o $$ Mar 24, 2012
· Bernanke: the man, the legacy and the law http://t.co/zA7OeFc4 “courts have shied away from developing jurisprudence on monetary policy.” $$ Mar 24, 2012
· @fatdaz It is my firm belief that no economic entity can dominate entirely; central banks have been destroyed b4; will happen again $$ Mar 24, 2012
· Masters of the Universe Start to Challenge Ben Bernanke http://t.co/31Pr1yrQ Markets are more powerful than Central Banks, watch out Fed! Mar 23, 2012
· European Banks Would Have Passed Fed’s Stress Test http://t.co/z5bCBeYy Ultimate insult 4 stringency of Fed’s stress tests $$ #devildetails Mar 20, 2012
· Bernanke Stands to Gain Capital-Market Experts With Nominees http://t.co/oX8xOdEU We need some people that doubt neoclassical economics $$ Mar 20, 2012
· Bernanke Returns to Academic Roots to Justify Fed’s Existence http://t.co/ORfma5sE Safe audiences let him talk publicly w/little risk $$ Mar 20, 2012
· Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets http://t.co/CQu827KD Ignores E-Zone contagion, increase in int rate volatility, etc $$ Mar 19, 2012
· Bernanke: “I Want to Bring Back Irrational Exuberance” http://t.co/p0qlQwXe @brucekrasting on overheating in some debt asset classes $$ Mar 19, 2012
China
· Ai Weiwei: “You’re There but You’re Not Existing” http://t.co/d7mLxHXm RARE interview w/Ai Weiwei, describing his detention in China $$ Mar 24, 2012
· China’s stock-market supervision suffering http://t.co/QEBPC5ya “Understaffed securities regulator, weak legal system cited” $$ #nosurprise Mar 21, 2012
· @Roy_Cam They can’t make money b/c of overcapacity; China invested too much in steel & global growth stinks. US exports of steel r rising $$ Mar 20, 2012
· @Roy_Cam We only import 30% of steel used in US, 4% of which comes from China = 1.2% of steel used is from China http://t.co/FTWt80oa $$ Mar 20, 2012
· @Roy_Cam You are right there, and that’s one reason why profitability is declining in steel industry globally. $$ Mar 20, 2012
· China to increase fuel prices 6-7% http://t.co/dBwrepDj Pump prices at record highs; biggest rise since June 2009 #ouch $$ Mar 20, 2012
· Sad Industry Mantra: Make Steel, Lose Money http://t.co/Pu9e6qFj Insanity; doing same thing, expecting different results. Future bailout $$ Mar 20, 2012
· The State-Owned Enterprises of China http://t.co/55nvgUMs I think a “big bang” would work, but the Communist Party would never do it $$ #Mao Mar 20, 2012
· Chinese property *alert* http://t.co/eklWzXkU Property sales value contracted 20% year on year in the two months ending in February. $$ Mar 20, 2012
· China’s new home prices “no longer rising” http://t.co/UL4T3yzQ The Chinese Gov’t always gets what it wants, until it gets too much of it $$ Mar 19, 2012
· Chinese Companies Forced to Falsify Data, Government Says http://t.co/tH0MUiYn AN example of why I don’t trust Chinese economic data. $$ Mar 18, 2012
· @Xiphos_Trading Don’t know if there will be a crash or not, but there has been a lot of malinvestment in China, like Late 80s Japan $$ Mar 18, 2012
Europe
· Those Catchy Spanish (Yield) Curves http://t.co/qoGmGl7E Yields backing up in the Spanish bond market; this could be the next crisis $$ Mar 24, 2012
· Euro-Zone Banks Get Show of Faith http://t.co/ZWqd8Df5 US MMFs begin adding back yieldy E-zone bank CP $$ #wedontlearnwereallydontlearn Mar 24, 2012
· On second thought, hold off moving that business to Ireland http://t.co/Bdu6ezon Ireland heading into recession; possibility of default? $$ Mar 23, 2012
· @Mapsofworld Gun to the head, I think it fails entirely, but that opinion is not held with high probability $$ Mar 22, 2012
· @Mapsofworld If the E-zone doesn’t move 2a full fiscal union, the Euro will either fail entirely, or become the currency of a smaller group Mar 22, 2012
· The Safe Haven of the Nordic Currencies Is No More http://t.co/FquH5ZWW It’s a little early to get categorical about this $$ Mar 21, 2012
· A Wall St. Firm Advises Greece, With Discretion http://t.co/Y12GeNZq $BLK is one powerful firm that many govts in crisis turn 2 4 help $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Swiss Secrecy Besieged Makes Banks Fret World Money Lure Fading http://t.co/qV197Px1 What good r Swiss banks if no secrecy, tax evasion $$ Mar 20, 2012
· Germany on a Different Track http://t.co/Gl3BNXBA While Much of EZone Deals W/Busts, Property Prices r Rising in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich Mar 20, 2012
Rest of the World
· Israel Billionaires Put Own Interest Ahead of Holders http://t.co/QSTpBn6E What’s mine is mine; what’s yours is negotiable $$ Mar 24, 2012
· Late Shah’s Son Selected As Iran’s Person Of The Year http://t.co/phWmAFRQ This is VOA so take it w/a grain of salt; still funny 2thinkabout Mar 24, 2012
· Latin American Nations in Worse Shape for Crisis, IDB Says http://t.co/zlZvDJi4 “result of lower budget surpluses b4 interest payments” $$ Mar 20, 2012
· What is the real rate of interest telling us? http://t.co/Vbk13I02 Excess capacity in devel world post bubble pop, send cap 2 emerg mkts Mar 20, 2012
Insurance
· @CflGator Life companies should be simple, but product design exploded to the point where reserving can’t keep up; I own only 1 life co. Mar 24, 2012
· @CflGator Variable & Universal life products have secondary gtee issues; there r a variety of long dated term products w/rsv issues $$ Mar 24, 2012
· @CflGator and P&C insurance — life insurance is capital intensive; they are sticking with their simplest biz, aside from long-tail P&C $$ Mar 24, 2012
· @CflGator It really depends; they wrote a lot of complex life products. On the bright side, a company in runoff is a cash cow. $$ Mar 24, 2012
· @CflGator That’s the tough Q. $HIG offered significant secondary guarantees when they were the #1 annuity writer. May not b prop reserved $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Hartford Shares Jump On Split, Analysts Like It Too http://t.co/APFbv4UA Not so fast on $HIG; regulators must approve a split; c my cmmt Mar 21, 2012
· Should Hartford’s Annuity Holders Be Worried? http://t.co/HfuZO3QO Probably not; small annuitants have protection from guaranty funds $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Annuity Case Chills Insurance Agents http://t.co/rHkg68Lw I’m always skeptical of products w/high commissions & surrender charges $$ Mar 19, 2012
Fixed Income
· Why Fixed Income Funds May Fall Short http://t.co/cHmF3hOj On the difficulties of combating tracking error in fixed income ETFs. $$ Mar 24, 2012
· Top Junk Pummels Treasuries for Safest Profits http://t.co/E5vl2qHB That’s the rearview mirror; will be harder to squeeze more returns out Mar 21, 2012
· The differentiation of Agency MBS risk profiles http://t.co/IJN2mbCm Interesting to see long avg life on high coupon underwater mortgages $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Bond Bear Market Yet to Roar http://t.co/oNENX9jc The selloff has been piddling so far, has not affected equities, & it may reverse $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Do High Yield Bonds Know Something Stocks Don’t? http://t.co/986Evuok Equities & Inv Grade corps outperforming HY Corps- call provisions? $$ Mar 19, 2012
· RE: @thearmotrader Thanks, you did the post that I wanted to do. Now I just have to point to it. http://t.co/Ru22nvom Mar 19, 2012
Exchange Traded Products
· “@HerbGreenberg mentions that once the creation/redemption mechanism “breaks” (my word, not his), that the ETF/ETN sh… http://t.co/jxK0bZfX Mar 23, 2012
· RE: Not likely, but maybe. If they were forced to see that they were getting a negative (or very low positive) yield… http://t.co/nnxLt2oj Mar 23, 2012
· Exchange-Traded Notes Are Worse Than You Think http://t.co/FAO4IS3H Path-dependent fees, shadow NAVs, high fees, tracking error, credit risk Mar 21, 2012
· Who Uses Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Anyway? http://t.co/cYpkVMr5 Retail owns 80%+. Normal ETFs r mostly held by institutions $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Know Your Client – Leveraged ETF Version http://t.co/gqPtiZtF Doesn’t matter if leverage is internal or external, client needs come first $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Money Managers Serving Clients First, Ego Second http://t.co/gY9bd1iR Using the investment vehicles of competing firms — a good thing $$ Mar 21, 2012
· RE: @finadd “Our results indicate that the extensive purchases of risky private-label mortgage-backed securities by t… http://t.co/cn5TM1cR Mar 20, 2012
· @amy_calistri at the levels implied by the CEF pricing at some funds, it would shave the yield 3% $DHF $MAV $HIX, 5% $PHT, 12% $PHK $$ Mar 19, 2012
· @amy_calistri Right. I watch the premiums on credit-sensitive CEFs as a measure of frothiness. If the underlying at some HY CEFs were bot + Mar 19, 2012
· Anybody know what was up with $EFT today? Floating-rate loan CEF up 4%+, Closed near par last Friday… odd. $$ Mar 19, 2012
· ‘Junk’ ETFs: Tread Lightly http://t.co/lXftKjwB Check the Price vs the NAV before you buy; also, if w/ds start, index bonds will get hit Mar 19, 2012
Individual Equities
· Leon Black’s Bid Gets No Respect as Great Wolf Surges http://t.co/kqS6pNyU Used 2call this stock “little dog;” badly managed frm beginning Mar 24, 2012
· @merrillmatter Bezos is scary-smart. I don’t own $AMZN either $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Just watched it. Wow, very impressive RT @merrillmatter: Skynet shall be renamed SkyBezos — Order Fetch http://t.co/6l9R9bHn $$ Mar 21, 2012
· +1, ugh RT @abnormalreturns: [post] America officially ran out of good corporate names today. http://t.co/lLGEmeAB $ABT $KFT $AAPL $NKE $MCD Mar 21, 2012
· You’re on a roll today @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog soon our robot overlords will deliver our bread and circuses to us in the Bezos Colosseum Mar 21, 2012
· No RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog I want to start a consultancy that veto’s stupid company names. Would your anti-consultancy veto that? Mar 21, 2012
· Amazon Wrings Profit From Fulfillment as Spending Soars http://t.co/McHUqMhe Tough work 4 laborers, though. $AMZN pushes pretty hard $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Kraft to Be Renamed Mondelez After Grocery Unit Is Spun Off http://t.co/GONE6x47 Pronounced “Mohn-dah-LEEZ.” Sigh, who got paid 4 this? $$ Mar 21, 2012
· The 400% Man’s New Big Bet http://t.co/33rHut9y Implicitly a bet that $BRKa will always be able to buy back stock @ 1.1x book value $$ Mar 21, 2012
· In a Major Restructuring, $HPQ To Combine Printer and PC Groups http://t.co/Aj3zaKaY FD: +HPQ; seems like a marginal idea, maybe works $$ Mar 20, 2012
· Why $HPQ Really Needs A CEO Succession Plan http://t.co/hkPDVkAy Good cultures should promote from within; HP used to have that $$ FD: +HPQ Mar 20, 2012
· Buffett Message Is ‘Do as I Say, Not as I Do’ http://t.co/Gcblc8oZ Alice Schroeder very acidic on Buffett; half right & half wrong $$ Mar 20, 2012
· $AAPL to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash http://t.co/uxf6jEBP About time, if there aren’t opps 2use the $$ Mar 19, 2012
Money Market Funds
· @MarcHochstein Thanks, I found the CFA Institutes comment today, and their view is similar 2 mine in some ways: http://t.co/8yPLcXfX $$ Mar 22, 2012
· @MarcHochstein investment restrictions moved back to 2008 norms. The ability 2 have credit events frees MMFs to pursue best advantage $$ Mar 21, 2012
· @MarcHochstein My idea will work 4 MMFs using inv policies prior 2 2008. The MMF folks aren’t earning $$ now, but they could with + Mar 21, 2012
· @MarcHochstein After reading this: http://t.co/aUoaN4kb Ask them, what if you traded Merkel’s idea 4 a loosening of investment rules? $$ Mar 21, 2012
· @MarcHochstein 1 more thing; if they have any sympathy toward my idea, I live near DC & would be willing to testify to the SEC $$ Mar 20, 2012
· @MarcHochstein Does that help? I still think my proposal, one of the few compromise proposals out there would work best of all. Mar 20, 2012
· @MarcHochstein Having been a life actuary, most regulatory progress happens when actuaries talk w/smarter regulators & forge compromise Mar 20, 2012
· @MarcHochstein Does that help? MMFs are just saying “We r fine, nothing needs 2b done.” 2me that strategy prob loses. Mar 20, 2012
· @MarcHochstein Would ask them if they have any way of stopping MMF runs on a private basis; this is the SEC goal; solve that, they leave Mar 20, 2012
· @MarcHochstein More humbly, I would ask them if they really think they can beat the SEC. SEC’s proposal is horrible, but saying “no” loses Mar 20, 2012
· @MarcHochstein Not so humbly, I would ask that u show them my proposal that I sent to the SEC, & ask them to back it http://t.co/vuNL8tQE Mar 20, 2012
Market Dynamics
· The Easy Money’s Been Made, Four Reasons for Caution http://t.co/9kAXqEU4 E-zone calm, risk tolerance+ , VIX low, FOMC may move soon Mar 24, 2012
· …and then all of a sudden, THE BULLS WENT BERZERK! http://t.co/bJKCVJha Lots of bullishness out there, though Howard Marks thought otherwise Mar 21, 2012
· @byrneseyeview That’s true, & I did a presentation on that. One more complicating factor were financials, which looked cheap but weren’t $$ Mar 21, 2012
· @byrneseyeview Found it. Here: http://t.co/YupRW6yD It’s on a number of topics; it was well-received $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Contra: The Biggest Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of http://t.co/0tzkPyiA Value can’t b a bubble. Growth can b a bubble. Growth & ROE meanrevert Mar 21, 2012
· Is this time really different? http://t.co/eePs0aIV It’s never different. It’s always different. Profit margins will mean-revert; Q is when Mar 21, 2012
· Biggs boosts bullish bets on stocks to 90% net long http://t.co/5fYQDhUC Won’t be the first 2 say this, but makes me doubt the rally $$ Mar 21, 2012
· The Ax is Back http://t.co/B1j3f7nH @reformedbroker Reduced profits on Wall Street translates into reduced perks, bonuses & jobs $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Public Companies: The End Is Near http://t.co/KejHwYDu There r still advantages 2being publicly traded, but has eroded since Sarbox, etc $$ Mar 20, 2012
· S&P 500 Rises to Four-Year High as Apple Plans Dividend http://t.co/RnBf9yEw $AAPL raises the div yld on the S&P 500 by 0.08%. Big! $$ Mar 19, 2012
· Shares and shibboleths http://t.co/CspyJCNX The equity premium over a diversified portfolio of investment grade bonds is ~1%/yr IMO $$ Mar 19, 2012
· Hubble, Bubble, Index Trouble http://t.co/2q3CPx4g Been saying this for years, indexing changes market dynamics, what happens @ reversal? $$ Mar 18, 2012
Politics
· Why Are Your Neighbors Just Like You? http://t.co/0lcPOuLZ On the demise of really knowing your neighbors; we try 2 reach out; few others do Mar 24, 2012
· @traderscrucible @interfluidity My blog (& Steve’s) have always had a strong public policy emphasis. Dreaming, but we suggest better policy. Mar 23, 2012
· Agent Based Models http://t.co/0etJ20fL “Why not keep it simple, and just say, you pay an asset tax for every dollar over $100B?” $$ Mar 23, 2012
· The Warren Buffett Chain Letter http://t.co/31FFSrmm Draconian adjustments. What Buffett did & didn’t say. 3% deficit ejects Congress $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Migration of sovereign debt from private hands to public institutions http://t.co/rQbDTXg3 &the debt sits til liquidity is needed -> crisis! Mar 21, 2012
· To Stay On Top, The US Must Invest In Research Universities http://t.co/P4kyUqY0 FD: + $INTC; do it w/yr own $$ not taxes; c my comment Mar 20, 2012
· RT @BarbarianCap: “cnbc: California Cities Scrambling to Avoid Becoming Insolvent” > the die was cast years ago; clowns, path depende … Mar 20, 2012
· Stopping the National Debt: A Movement Led By a Cowboy, a Colonel, & a Citizens’ Cavalry http://t.co/frqAXCpy Natl Debt Relief Amendment Mar 20, 2012
· Who is REALLY paying in the $25bil TBTF mortgage settlement http://t.co/T2h1B5CO $5B from banks, rest MBS holders eg pension plans, insurers Mar 19, 2012
· The JOBS Act: Plutocracy in Action http://t.co/Fjo3Ppet Another article on the previous topic; don’t downgrade information quality $$ Mar 19, 2012
· Small Biz Jobs Act Is a Bipartisan Bridge Too Far http://t.co/AwBXg184 Would not mess w/securities laws in that way to create growth $$ Mar 19, 2012
· Public Unions Send Medical Bills to Taxpayers http://t.co/Lb2XgAv9 CA Sup Ct foolishly makes healthcare nonreducible. CA will die $$ Mar 18, 2012
· As Unions Lose Their Grip, Indiana Lures Manufacturing Jobs http://t.co/vj177CT2 Like my article that few like http://t.co/WgdN7Mmq $$ Mar 18, 2012
· Pension Legislation Could Cut Contributions, Hike Taxes http://t.co/Tj1UlUz8 Stupid proposals that weaken DB pensions, companies r strongnow Mar 18, 2012
Regulation
· Where is the Center for Audit Quality When We Actually Could Use It? http://t.co/jWt09bcw JOBS Act: destroy info reliability to create jobs Mar 23, 2012
· Fed’s Fisher Says ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ Problem Remains http://t.co/eLvHGmXt Richard Fisher favors breakup of the biggest banks. $$ Mar 21, 2012
· @carney just read your piece on the net capital rule. Similar to my piece last November http://t.co/tl28NPku Good piece. $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Top Court’s Patent Rejection Alarms the Biotech Industry http://t.co/oK11WlvR ’bout time we forced a more fundamental review of patents Mar 21, 2012
Economics
· Solar’s 80% Plunge Hurts Utilities From Hawaii to Spain http://t.co/m9eACVTp Overcapacity drives down prices of PV panels for now. $$ Mar 21, 2012
· Mean Time Between Failures http://t.co/zkT0z9cX The “recovery” is getting long in the tooth, eg it may end soon; graph: http://t.co/xOHA1IYA Mar 20, 2012
· Obama’s tax hikes threaten a new US recession http://t.co/uNHwBpeJ Looking @ 4 more years of divided govt & stalemate $$ #debtbombgrows Mar 20, 2012
· @The_Dumb_Money I would have liked to see the Banks/Etc. who owned the servicers bear more of the cost $$ Mar 20, 2012
· Partial equilibrium intuitions about choice http://t.co/215kIrmS @interfluidity more difficult to solve general equilibrium Qs than partial Mar 19, 2012
· Understanding the New Price of Oil http://t.co/TaMTaneR No surprise here; most cheap oil has been found, the price of oil should rise $$ Mar 18, 2012
Miscellaneous
· @merrillmatter Factoid: 100,000,000,000 to 1 for a monkey to type the word “banana” from random typewriter jumping Mar 21, 2012
· Is a Calorie a Calorie? http://t.co/4hyTfSvr Yes, but different nutrients come w/calories. Also, a unit of fat has 2x cals vs carbs/protein Mar 21, 2012
· Madoff’s Lament: I Was An Honest Money Manager Once http://t.co/OGp2xRHR The outside world should ignore Madoff now. Attention feeds him. Mar 21, 2012
· Trust no one http://t.co/cFYBkCA7 & http://t.co/ILP0dPlA Independent & regular journalists face conflicts of interest in giving speeches $$ Mar 20, 2012
· On Slime and Water http://t.co/8iezy0FK Pink Slime in burgers, and shortages of potable water in most of the globe, except Canada & US. $$ Mar 18, 2012
· The NSA Is Building the Country’s Biggest Spy Center (Watch What You Say) http://t.co/iUsN5D0t Time to increase encryption key sizes $$ Mar 18, 2012
· @TimABRussell I always read all the books I review; in rare cases when I don’t, I tell readers that I skimmed it. $$ Mar 18, 2012
This recent article also focused on bond ETFs not tracking NAV:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/384861-a-tale-of-2-muni-bond-etfs