Sorted Weekly Tweets




  • China’s first bond default could be good market medicine Bond trader: “We don’t really have a credit risk culture.” $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • Is China’s slowdown worse than previously estimated? Could b business conditions that are worst since 2009. $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • China Banks Said to Underestimate Local Government Risks China has a clever bureaucracy; always has; big CYA $$ Mar 25, 2012
  • Chinese capitalism is just another knockoff China is not Capitalist; it rewards Party members, not citizens. $$ Mar 25, 2012
  • Debating a “Hard Landing” friendly debate – Andrew Batson & Patrick Chovanec over China facing a “hard landing” in 2012 Mar 25, 2012
  • I Am Jordan’s Complete Lack of Surprise: Chinese Co’s Forced to Falsify Data Command & control economy, not free $$ Mar 25, 2012


Market Dynamics


  • The Nature of a Crowded Trade A July 2008 article of mine where I reflected on the high correlations of the prior 3 yrs Mar 31, 2012
  • A Market Lacking Diversification Correlation conditions similar to 2006-2008, only diversifier hi-qual long bonds $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • Pension Deficit for 100 US Company Plans Increased 41% in 2011 Low long hi-qual rates & cruddy returns on risk assets Mar 31, 2012
  • 2277 Stocks and Still Not Diversified? Recommended solution is similar 2a levered version of the Permanent Portfolio $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • New from Aleph Blog The Rules, Part XXXI: The offering of liquidity through limit orders is a real service to th… Mar 30, 2012
  • Passive Aggressive: Index-Linked Securities and Individual Investors Curbs stock picking, encourages factor timing $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • Bankers are telling corporate clients this is their chance to refinance The window of cheap junk financing is open $$ Mar 28, 2012
  • New from Aleph Blog Replacing Defined Contributions: I think that it is pretty certain that defined contribution… Mar 27, 2012
  • What Will Replace the 401(k)? How about DB pensions where it depends on how much the employee kicks in plus match? $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • US Stocks Advance Following Bernanke’s Comments Stox react 2 increases in inflation expectations. TIPS & Bonds fall $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • Hedge Funds Capitulating Buy Most Stocks Since 2010 Short-term money alert! Will propel mkt 4 a while, then… $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • If Bloomberg Business Week is a better magazine than old Businessweek (I think so), what magazine should we use now 4 a dumb $$ indicator? Mar 26, 2012


Asset Management


  • Nontraded REITS should be a nonstarter for clients And here’s one that just announced a 72% loss: Mar 31, 2012
  • Oaktree IPO Could Pay 2 Founders $117.2M Each The Most Important Thing is getting rewarded 4 building AUM 😉 $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • The Trouble With Exchange Traded Notes Unsecured credit, total return swaps, low level of regulatory protection $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • Good 4 all of us RT @frankvoisin: My interview Research Magazine’s April issue: Also features @VitaliyK @alephblog $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Bain Gave Staff Way to Swell IRAs by Investing in Deals Letting employees in on the fun shares the wealth. Good $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Lying By Omission: Mutual Funds, Track Records & Departing Managers Track recrds shuld b suspended when critical ppl go Mar 29, 2012
  • New from Aleph Blog A Pox on Promoted Stocks (2): By this time, I would think that it would be worth the the tim… Mar 28, 2012
  • The Measured Approach to Value Features investors Vitaliy Katzenelson & Croft-Leominster, & smaller Frank Voisin & me Mar 28, 2012
  • GoodHaven Realizes Its Vision The CIO of Markel, Tom Gayner showed them favor and invested with them. Good for them. $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • What This Industry Needs is a Good Disruption There r a few areas of the financial industry that justify their fees $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • Found PDF slide presentation: The Market for Financial Advice: An Audit Study $$ Worth a read, paper not free @ SSRN Mar 26, 2012
  • Treasuries Rise for Fourth Day on Global Growth Concern Funny how the sentiment has reversed; who is surprised? $$ Mar 25, 2012


Monetary Policy


  • @kyles09 No, not a believer in MMT, MMR, or neoclassical macro. 2 much aggregation, not everything happens at once, goods/services central + Mar 30, 2012
  • @kyles09 and $$ only facilitates goods/services. Debt is important, but not central, some goods owned outright, w/no liabs. Money is a + Mar 30, 2012
  • @kyles09 creation of a culture, not the government, because @ the edges, FX & commodities will crowd out bad currencies. MMT -> inflation $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • What Does Bernanke Know? Introduces “The Guy Rate” Unemployment of older guys has hi costs Mar 29, 2012
  • Demand for U.S. Debt Is Not Limitless In 2011, the Fed purchased 61% of Treasury issuance. That can’t last. $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • Bitter Money Fights Shaped U.S History Abandoning Gold Helped Dollar Gain Preeminence $$ Mar 28, 2012
  • For the last tweet, those r2 good articles by Simon Johnson & James Kwak, authors of “13 Bankers” & co-founders of The Baseline Scenario $$ Mar 28, 2012
  • Housing bubbles and interest rates Makes my point that asset price levels should be part of monetary policy $$ Mar 31, 2012


Banking & Finance


  • FiveBooks Interviews > @Ritholtz on Causes of the Financial Crisis Many good perspectives from 6 authors on the crisis Mar 31, 2012
  • Geithner’s Math Puzzle Beyond Numbers for DeMarco Principal forgiveness would have moral hazard impacts. $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Why not make LIBOR off of binding offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group $10M short-term unsecured? Avg — LIBOR/LIBID $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Libor Links Deleted as UK Bank Group Backs Away From Rate British Bankers’ Association distances itself from LIBOR $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Branson’s Virgin Money Seen Disrupting U.K. Retail Banks Always been a Branson skeptic; he have audited financials? Mar 30, 2012
  • Why not make LIBOR off of binding bids/offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group 10 million dollars sh… Mar 29, 2012
  • Is Hartford Financial’s market exit a death knell for the annuity crowd or just more Hartford haplessness? Both. $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • The Birth (and Death) of the Moral Age of Wall Street At one point the moral code of $GS had some meaning, not much now Mar 29, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap More subtle than that; for insurance accounting &the concept of release from risk, it is the conservative side of realistic $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • A Proposal for the Resolution of Systemically Important Assets and Liabilities: The Case of the Repo Market +1 $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • But, disagree. Would b simpler and more effective to disallow repo financiers unrestricted access to collateral even in counterparty default Mar 26, 2012
  • Obama Relies on Debt Collectors Profiting From Student Loan Woe How independent debt collectors get people 2 pay $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • A Bailout by Another Name GSE writedowns would constitute a direct & sizable gift from taxpayers 2 the largest banks Mar 26, 2012
  • Banks’ preemptive strike against Dodd-Frank Banks adjusting strategies in order to keep doing as much biz as possible Mar 26, 2012
  • MF’s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says The most likely cause may prove to b correct $$ #corzine Mar 26, 2012
  • BOE’s Tucker: Rehypothecation Consequences ‘Under the Radar’ Good. Rehypothecation should b reviewed, perhaps limited Mar 26, 2012
  • @EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest I would still lay the blame @ the door of $GS mgmt. Could have grown via retained earnings &stayed private $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • @EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest Also, there r real advantages 2 partnership culture in an investment bank; risk control works a lot better $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • The Age of the Shadow Bank Run Borrow short, lend long; clip a spread. Surprise! During the crisis you lose big! $$ Mar 25, 2012
  • The Interest Rate Swaps that Are Bankrupting Local Governments Not true. Gov’ts tried to minimize taxes w/swaps, failed Mar 25, 2012
  • Three’s a Crowd Disagree w/the conclusion, because $GS did not have to go public; problem is mgmt, not shareholders $$ Mar 25, 2012




  • Brazil’s pension system They allow people to retire too early & offer too much. More unsustainable than Medicare $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • @AlexRubalcava Perhaps a cash balance plan would do that. DB plans are not expensive because of explicit costs. They r expensive b/c + Mar 28, 2012
  • @AlexRubalcava during boom times benefits look free and get set too high, leading to high costs in the bust phase & plan terminations. $$ Mar 28, 2012




  • Obama Is a Loser Who Wins, Like FDR in 1936 Don’t assume a bad economy insures the defeat of Obama. FDR won in ’36 $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • The Rejection of Austerity Begins Until failure, ppl vote 4 politicians who promise magic prosperity thru govt fiat $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Germany: The Final Frontier… Whose True Debt/GDP Is Now 140% When you add up the guarantees, doesn’t look so good. $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • Justices Suggest Parts of Health-Care Law May Be Thrown Out B best 2 throw the whole law out; let Congress start over Mar 29, 2012
  • Contra: Court Can’t Let Broccoli Get in Way of Health Care Law Sup Ct is moving 2 define interstate commerce better Mar 26, 2012
  • Death Tax Defying Eliminate the estate tax; Tax everyone on unrealized capital gains. $$ Same result. Mar 25, 2012
  • Intelligence community can keep data on Americans with no ties to terrorism for up to 5 years Stinks; call the ACLU $$ Mar 25, 2012


US Economy


  • Why Natural-Gas Prices Could Fade to Red When everyone tries 2 frack @ once, there is too much natgas, price falls Mar 30, 2012
  • US coal production declines as industry faces further stress Fracking has unpredictable consequences; affects energy $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • Bidding Wars Erupt as U.S. Supply of Homes for Sale Falls In certain locales, & on the low end, there r bidding wars Mar 29, 2012
  • The Biggest Bellwether In The World Is Giving Some Ominous Comments About Growth $FDX says things r slowing down $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • Planned Pipelines to Rival Keystone XL Enterprise Products Partners & Enbridge may build competing pipelines $$ Mar 28, 2012
  • ‘Pink slime’ producer suspends operations Goes from 4 factories to 1. 600 people will probably lose their jobs $$ Mar 28, 2012
  • @valuewalk @The_Analyst It is better for students to start small businesses. Forget economics, it is a waste. Profit/loss best teacher $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • The Economic Surprise Index is now trending down @soberlook reminds us that not everything is going well $$ Mar 27, 2012



  • Like it? I’ve actually bought cars that way! RT @mprobertson: How to buy a car using game theory. very interesting. $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • Eating Chocolate Regularly May Make You Leaner, Survey Suggests This means one dark chocolate Dove promise/day $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • The second most dangerous people in the world are smart people with wrong postulates. Mar 25, 2012
  • The most dangerous people in the world are politicians who peddle the views of the smart people with wrong postulates. $$ Mar 25, 2012
  • Madoff FBI Files Reveal How He Fooled His Own Employees Gives hope to those accused; Madoff controlled data tightly. Mar 25, 2012