Sorted Weekly Tweets



  • High Yield Closed End Funds 68% over NAV, 3% avg premium. Loan Participation CEFs 40% over NAV, -1% avg discount. Conditions r medium hot $$ Apr 07, 2012
  • Why Stocks Look Too Pricey Various Indicators Suggest the Market Is No Longer a Bargain, at best fairly valued $$ Apr 07, 2012
  • Contra: The alarming fall in syndicated lending With the high yield mkt running hot why not avoid restrictive banks $$ Apr 06, 2012
  • Not so new… Eddy Elfenbein said something similar 4 months ago: http://www.crossingwallstreet… Apr 04, 2012 (on inflation expectations driving stock prices in the short run)
  • Time to take some risk off the table Trends breaking globally, US looks okay. Humble Student has made good calls lately Apr 04, 2012
  • The Dangers of an Interventionist Fed QE Removal: what happens to banks if Fed does & 2 inflation if Fed doesn’t $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • Junk Bonds – Getting Risky for a New Reason? Record pace of junk issuance bodes ill 4 performance… 3 yrs from now. $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • Two Pros Weigh In on U.S. Stocks: Ben Inker’s Bearish View Katie Nixon’s Bull View $$ Apr 02, 2012
  • Eichengreen on Credit Bubbles Leading indicator of finl stress in em mkts: loan growth > 2x GDP growth 2 yrs earlier $$ Apr 01, 2012
  • Taking the High Out of High Yield Nonprofessionals are the ones buying junk at the margin. This won’t end well. $$ Apr 01, 2012


Central Banking


  • The ECB has completely lost control over the monetary policy for Greece Massive liquidity drain; total credit failure Apr 07, 2012
  • Post-war financial repression is back If the post-war experience is any guide, savers face many years of suffering. Apr 06, 2012
  • Bernanke – I’m Slowing Down the Ship Stocks don’t like less inflation coming and so they fall. But bonds rally. $$ Apr 06, 2012
  • Draghi Scotches ECB Exit Talk as Spain Keeps Crisis Alive LTRO can only go so far; can solve liquidity, not solvency Apr 06, 2012
  • The Market’s Obsessive Fixation on The Fed & QE Runs through a Fed tightening scenario, thinks Fed won’t sell bonds $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • Oest.. Nationalbank follows Bundesbank in refusing some periphery collateral Not so big in itself; Tear in EZ fabric Apr 04, 2012
  • Draghi Tested as German Pay Deals Add to Euro Divergence Inflation rising @ core? May even labor productivity some $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • @federalreserve Tried using your Data Download Program today I managed 2get the data I needed, but it was tough 2use Apr 03, 2012
  • Bernanke – ‘The Fed never makes mistakes’ He goes, speaks to soft audiences, argues that no one could have known #dope Apr 01, 2012




  • Coup Rumors in China Have Deeper Meaning Small fissures appearing in the Communist Party’s hold on power $$ Apr 07, 2012
  • Australia’s Export Slump Intensifies Rate-Cut Pressure China sneezes, Australia catches a cold, mate. $$ Apr 06, 2012
  • China doomsayer sees crash coming Hardly a crash, but GDP shrinking. Wait, that *is* a crash for China? $$ Apr 06, 2012
  • The Revenge of Wen Jiabao Long read. Eye-opening. Formal system of Comm Party eclipsed by family coalitions that war $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • The informal aspects of how China is governed relies on rival coalitions of elite families over the long run. Short-run, Comm party rules $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • China Accelerates Markets Opening as QFII Quota Doubles May prove 2b significant due to unintended consequences $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • China Manufacturing Gain Masks Exporters’ Woes Goods unneeded by the rest of the World build up in China $$ #glut Apr 03, 2012


United States


  • When safe assets return Long piece on the status of money-like instruments, public and private. Many questions. $$ Apr 07, 2012
  • Income Inequality Is Killing the Economy, Obama Says—Is He Wrong? Going up in developed world, going down globally $$ Apr 07, 2012
  • And I don’t get it as well, Josh.  I’m as Libertarian as they come, but with financial services, I know that trickery… Apr 05, 2012
  • More woes in Fedl subsidized solar power: & ht: @zerohedge | Send bureaucrats 2study physics? $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • The return of the US manufacturer Manufactured goods represented 61 per cent of all US exports during 2010 $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • +1 RT @ReformedBroker: ADP is the Diet Arizona Iced Tea of Employment gauges. Like, we’ll take it if it’s there but no one’s looking for it Apr 04, 2012
  • When does the US Treasury bubble burst? “Pomboy pointed out that Treasury yields are less than current CPI rates” $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • Why Are the Fed and SEC Keeping Wall Street’s Secrets? Fed & SEC view those they regulate as their clientele $$ Apr 02, 2012
  • US consumers dipping into savings Implies that the recovery is weaker than presently posited, demand comes from savings Apr 01, 2012
  • Obama Campus Fervor Losing 2 Apathy as Students Sour on 2012 Students thought they were getting change, got Bush-plus Apr 01, 2012
  • How Stockton, California Went Broke in Plain Sight If you hand out benefit increases like they are candy… $$ Apr 01, 2012




  • Quants: The Alchemists of Wall Street Recommend this video, features Paul Wilmott, Matthew Goldstein, & more $$ Apr 07, 2012
  • The 401(k): Americans ‘just not prepared’ 2 manage their own retirement funds Conclusions similar Apr 06, 2012
  • Hedge Funds Accomplishing Very Little in the Aggregate… HFs tend 2b volatility-averse, weaker funding than long-only $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • Ackman SPAC a nice touch, no? RT @ReformedBroker: Private Equity-held Burger King coming public again. “Hooray!” said no one to no one else Apr 04, 2012
  • Performance persistence in hedge funds How do hedge funds differ v unlevered value investors? $$ gets pulled vals drop Apr 04, 2012
  • ETN Double Dipping With GAZ? Interesting piece. An ETN issuer can make more $$ stopping creation & lending shares Apr 04, 2012
  • Loan classes “season” over 10-30% of the life of loan… defaults/prepays stabilize. Large cohorts 4 bond issuance go bad in the 3rd yr $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • Merrill, Morgan Stanley seen losing grip on rich Top 4 brokers mkt share 56% in 2007, 45% in 2011 & still falling $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • Low Vol Underperforming Every valid strategy has times when it doesn’t work, to shake out the weak hands $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • Corporate pension funds break away from equities Yes, when yields r low, DB plans move 2 bonds. Brilliant. $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • Does Danger Loom for Multiemployer Pension Plans? Plans that are <80% funded must take steps 2 nurse plans 2 health $$ Apr 01, 2012
  • Credit Suisse Opened Volatility Bets to Small Investors Wall Street produces products 2 benefit itself, not retail $$ Apr 01, 2012
  • Keynes: One Mean Money Manager “The board of King’s College gave him uncontested authority to invest as he wished.” Apr 01, 2012




  • Just a guess, but after Japan’s Current Account goes into deficit for ~2 years, the big adjustment down in the Yen will happen. $$ #ouch Apr 06, 2012
  • @valuewalk Probably because so many have lost money shorting the yen, & some have made $$ long the yen, that many just trust the momentum $$ Apr 06, 2012
  • @valuewalk long-dated yen currency puts have fairly low vol 😉 Not doing that either, but… someone will. Apr 06, 2012
  • Yen Forecast: Xie Sees 40% Drop, Japan Bubble Bursting Wow. Thinks Japan near tipping point 4 internal financing fail Apr 06, 2012
  • Japan’s Strongest Storm Since 1959 Slams Into Tokyo Region Very unusual 4 Tokyo 2 have such strong winds w/no typhoon Apr 03, 2012
  • Yen Losing Most Since ’95 Not Enough for Toyota Japanese Industry cheerleaders 4 “penny parity” $$ #race2thebottom Apr 02, 2012




  • Advisers, B-Ds retreat from Hartford Not offering new annuities means can’t roll to $HIG products when surr chg ends $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • Agents will try to get holders of $HIG annuities to roll elsewhere when surr charge ends (new commission $$ ), but be careful if you own an+ Apr 03, 2012
  • annuity from $HIG, b/c one reason they are getting out of the biz, I think, is that some of the secondary gtees were 2 generous + Apr 03, 2012
  • there is probably a business in analyzing secondary gtees, b/c some r quite valuable, &u wouldn’t want 2get tricked into rolling it by agent Apr 03, 2012
  • Contra: Rising equity markets to drive US life insurers-Barclays Catch my comment at the end, didn’t get new DAC issue Apr 02, 2012
  • Insurance Fees, Revealed NY State says agents must disclose how compensated & offer to provide full details #woohoo Apr 01, 2012




  • Sinkhole at the bottom of my street after a water main break. The water is more than 5′ deep & and hollowing out the road beneath. Apr 07, 2012
  • Street is one way, so I took my son who is a Police Explorer 2 talk to the policeman there. They knew each other. It’s a one-way street so + Apr 07, 2012
  • I asked the policeman (who was short handed) if he would like us 2 block street 2 traffic. Gratefully “yes.” We set up the safety gear. Apr 07, 2012
  • This is the opposite of last summer where we didn’t have power 4 6+ days, but we had water. We have power but no water. Hope it won’t b long Apr 07, 2012
  • Three Year Anniversary Congratulations, Hunter! @DDInvesting is our internet guide to all distressed debt $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • LinkedIn Events: Towson University Investment Group – Markets Summit I’ll b participating on a panel. See you there! $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • @Frank_McG @volatilitysmile As I said to my wife today, “Take care of your wife, and she will take care of you.” Worked for the last 25 yrs Apr 02, 2012




  • Reprise: The Elfenbein Gold Model @eddyelfenbein at his best, I fully subscribe to his model, reflecting cost of carry Apr 06, 2012
  • Matzo Ball Soup, Check. iPad, Check. For Passover, Jews Try Techie Seders I dislike technology in religion. Yuck $$ Apr 06, 2012
  • Flying Auto Reviving Dreams of Chitty Chitty Bang Bang Cheap @ $279K, this one might actually work $$ Apr 06, 2012
  • This discussion has problems because there is no agreed upon definition of what “free will” means.  As with all quest… Apr 04, 2012
  • Here Come Tablets. Here Come Problems. Five common mistakes: a slow rollout is better to get the bugs out. $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • Gene Maps Are No Cure-All Study Warns That DNA Scanning to Predict Disease Can Mislead; ‘Not a Crystal Ball’ $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • Ten Claims in Support of IFRS Adoption by the SEC – & Why They are False & & Apr 03, 2012
  • The Mighty Mathematician You’ve Never Heard Of Never heard of her & her impact on physics was as great as that of math Apr 01, 2012
  • Mangled Horses, Maimed Jockeys Maybe there is a public policy reason to close down racetracks, & after that boxing $$ Apr 01, 2012




  • Australia LNG Boom Threatened by US Shale Exporters Cheap US Hydrocarbons invert prior economic certainties $$ #shale Apr 04, 2012
  • Shale oil: from curse to cure for East Coast refiners? US Shale oil is high quality; challenge is delivery2refineries Apr 04, 2012
  • Repsol Worst Debt Swaps on YPF Seize Threat Argentina not 2b trusted; would buy $REP bonds on weakness, stock a ?? $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • Encana in Play as Petronas Seeks Natural Gas Petronas looking long-term, b/c prospects for natgas pricing r poor $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • Why high gas prices at the pump? The answer is BICS Brazil, India, China, & Saudi Arabia have increased gasoline demand Apr 03, 2012
  • The rapidly shifting supply fundamentals in US natural gas Injection cycle starting early w/supplies high already $$ Apr 03, 2012


Rest of the World


  • Contra: The Buck Stops Here: A BRIC Wall The BRIC nations r2 statist 2 link 2 gold. Good idea, doesn’t fit the politics Apr 06, 2012
  • Germany Asked to Forgo $1.3 Billion Deutsche Telekom Payout Interesting how Capex constrains euro-telcos, not US $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • Europe’s Ratings Revenge Founders on Market Reality Eurocrats stumble in dark; will return 2 old system; it worked $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • How A Baby Bust Will Turn Asia’s Tigers Toothless Economic growth is partially population growth; sterile societies $$ Apr 01, 2012
  • Swedish High Street Rebound Ends Bets for Riksbank Cuts A relative bright spot in Europe; having the Knonor helps $$ Apr 01, 2012


Company News


  • RE: @emergingmoney Never been crazy about firms that perpetually run w/neg working capital. Interesting idea, though. Apr 04, 2012
  • Optical Delusion? Fiber Booms Again, Despite Bust Whouda thunk it? I knew this was getting close, demand 4new fiber Apr 04, 2012
  • Scarred Avon Is Takeover Target Don’t think $AVP is a good takeover target: toss dist syst or incompatible syst $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • Technology obsoletes too easily, particularly in hot sectors. Very difficult to get to $1T of Market Cap. Bit-by-bit… Apr 03, 2012
  • $AAPL ‘s War on Android Long, fascinating article; perversely, attempts to enforce patent can invalidate patents $$ Apr 02, 2012
  • Dude, is There any Value Left in $DELL ? U know your marketing is stale when people reference advertising >10yrs ago $$ Apr 02, 2012




  • The rebound is now Worth watching, but I would wait until the foreclosures have been mostly cleared, b4 saying bottom Apr 07, 2012
  • Home Prices Seen Dropping 10% in US on Foreclosures Once f/cs clear out, the market will normalize maybe even rise $$ Apr 03, 2012
  • McClellan on Lumber’s tendency to leading housing stocks If past is prologue, housing prices are set for another dip $$ Apr 01, 2012




  • I’ve owned this in the past, but not now.  It’s been around for 19 years as a CEF — just have to watch the premium/d… Apr 06, 2012
  • Why I Won’t Be Buying TAGS Expense ratio does not include the expenses paid on underlying ETFs owned by $TAGS $$ Apr 04, 2012


Financial Distress


  • Reddy Ice Considers Filing for Bankruptcy Is it just me, or are we seeing an uptick in insolvencies? $$ Apr 04, 2012
  • Hostess Serves Up New Batch of Cuts Future failure as people don’t buy so many of the “sugar fat bombs” 4 kids $$ Apr 02, 2012
  • Failures: Pinnacle Airlines AFA Foods Airlines & Meat renderers r born 2 fail $$ Apr 02, 2012