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Sorted Recent Tweets



  • “When women stay home and they raise their kids & maintain the household, it is a job. It’s a job of love.” #wellsaid Apr 13, 2012
  • @historysquared Have not seen anything definitive on that, but production from fracking decays faster than conventional production. $$ Apr 13, 2012
  • 10 Things I Hate About Tax Day “There is absolutely no defense for it – none – & yet it persists, year after year.” Apr 11, 2012
  • @TimABRussell It varies. Most of the books I review are within a year of (re)publication. Some are as old as the 1960s. >95% last 10 yrs $$ Apr 09, 2012
  • So, you did an article ghostwritten by Robert Berman, Cinium’s CEO? Lovely. He gets around. But what does Smartmo… Apr 09, 2012
  • Voices: Phil Cioppa, On Hiring Advisers Most sales positions have high turnover, particularly w/intangible products Apr 11, 2012
  • McDonald’s Pursuit of Perfect Fries Risks Overpromising Harder 2 assure consistent quality if $MCD locally sources $$ Apr 09, 2012




  • Agree that America declines, but China also RT @historysquared: Historian warns of sudden collapse of American ‘empire’ Apr 13, 2012
  • Shadow Banks on Trial as China’s Rich Sister Faces Death It is morally wrong to put someone 2 death 4a property crime Apr 11, 2012
  • Is China slowing down? From the AEI, very clueless piece: China should raise its exchange rate & lower the central rate Apr 11, 2012
  • Hong Kong’s Tsang ‘Highly Concerned’ About Property Price Bubble Devel Nations monetary policy fuels many bubbles $$ Apr 10, 2012
  • ‘Jackie Kennedy of China’ at Center of Political Drama The politics of China r dirtier than the US & more secretive Apr 10, 2012
  • China Inflation Exceeds Forecast Too little attention paid here; too much confidence in Chinese central bankers $$ Apr 09, 2012
  • @valuewalk Yes, saw it and the followup bet. I owe a decent amount of my intl economics thinking to Pettis, but not my errors ;) $$ Apr 09, 2012
  • The ways China can rebalance Michael Pettis on the constraints the China faces as it tries 2 rebalance its economy $$ Apr 09, 2012




  • +1 RT @The_Analyst: I feel like unless its a special situation, everyone who “gets” newspapers would never make a LT investment in them Apr 12, 2012
  • Buffett “didn’t get tech.” I don’t get newspapers. $$ RT @WSJDealJournal: Warren Buffett Building Newspaper Empire? Apr 12, 2012
  • I don’t get the economics of the newspaper biz $$ RT @WSJDealJournal: Warren Buffett Building Newspaper Empire? Apr 12, 2012


Electronic Bond Markets


  • BlackRock’s Street Shortcut Would work better 4 stocks than bonds. Most bonds r held a long time & do not trade $$ Apr 12, 2012
  • If the buyside created their own internal stock exchange, they could reduce the effect of the HFTs on the market & make life harder 4 retail Apr 12, 2012
  • But an internal bond exchange as proposed by $BLK won’t do that much, institutional transaction costs aren’t that hi 4 commonly traded bonds Apr 12, 2012
  • When I was a bond mgr 1998-2003, aside from obscure & illiquid bonds my commissions were $1/32nd or $1/64th per $100 — 1-3 basis points $$ Apr 12, 2012
  • @TFMkts So I would ask you, have comm rates 4 bonds gone up since 2002? My normal trade size back then was $5-20Mil, comms 1-3 bps then $$ Apr 12, 2012
  • @TFMkts Most bonds don’t trade, though. When I was a bond mgr, I needed guys who could find bonds. Always paid them; never let them cross2me Apr 12, 2012


Delta Airlines


  • It is usually a bad sign when a company can’t manage its current business well, & it tries to enter a difficult unrelated business. $DAL $$ Apr 11, 2012
  • Best quote: “Edward Hirs…says he can think of one reason why Delta would try to get into the refining business: ‘because they’re stupid.’” Apr 11, 2012
  • Why Buying A Refinery Could Be A Disaster For Delta Air Lines (Even With JPMorgan’s Help) & $$ Apr 11, 2012


Rest of the World


  • Qatari Bright Lights Prompt EU’s Hedegaard to Urge Climate Plan Another reason why multilateralism doesn’t work. $$ Apr 12, 2012
  • Kenyans Almost Dead on Worst Roads Getting New Highways Next time u r stuck in traffic b thankful u r not in Kenya $$ Apr 11, 2012
  • These Charts Point to Trouble for Australia Housing bubble, co-dependent relationship w/China, & large pool of hot $$ Apr 10, 2012
  • It’s rich 2c Dilma Rousseff criticizing Obama. But Brazil is further down the line in the devel nations game of monetary crack-the-whip $$ Apr 10, 2012
  • Rousseff Tells Obama Rich Nations’ Policies Harm Growth Devel nations force emerg nations 2 swallow loose $$ policy Apr 10, 2012
  • Bank of Canada stressed about housing Nothing like a debt financed housing bubble 2 make a central banker flinch $$ Apr 09, 2012




  • Good Jobs News: More People Are Quitting The job market is more healthy if people are quitting to take other jobs. Apr 12, 2012
  • Obama’s Fantasy Budget Suggests Tax Hike Surprise Obama would likely b more radical in a 2nd term #nothing2lose $$ Apr 11, 2012
  • Tax Breaks for Wealthy Should Be Cut, Paul Ryan Says “focus our poverty-eradication policies on treating root causes” Apr 11, 2012
  • @DavidSchawel I don’t think the paper changes my main point, it will be very difficult for the Fed to remove “stimulus.” Apr 11, 2012
  • Bernanke Gives College Lecture Series High Marks H/L overstates: “I was very happy with the lectures,” he said. $$ Apr 10, 2012
  • The Fed sold half its short-term notes via Operation Twist Will have no short assets if the pace continues 4 6 mos $$ Apr 10, 2012
  • Job Gains in US Trail Most-Pessimistic Forecasts People asked me y I was more pessimistic than most, well… $$ Apr 08, 2012


Asset Markets


  • Does “Sell in May” Really Work? Reality is more complex than adages. The rule should be sell September, buy November $$ Apr 12, 2012
  • Gunning for yield and “quality” leaves little room for error High quality junk does not offer enough yield 4 risks $$ Apr 12, 2012
  • High-Yield Bond ETF Breaks March Low I sold a lot of my credit-sensitive bond investments today. Market feels weak $$ Apr 11, 2012
  • @munilass @carney High earned & discount rate assumptions did lower contributions by assuming investment earnings would carry the load $$ + Apr 10, 2012
  • @munilass @carney & many municipalities substituted benefit increases 4 salary increases, b/c no immed $$ effect; many factors in play here Apr 10, 2012
  • Flouting Risks, Investors Gorge on Fat Yields of Emerging Market Debt Will eventually end badly; Russia 1998 $$ Apr 10, 2012
  • Retweet after me. I HATE HFT TRADING BOTS ;) RT @merrillmatter: Repeat after me. I HATE HFT TRADING BOTS $$ Apr 09, 2012
  • How to Improve the Potential of Less Volatile Stocks Adding a quality screen further improves returns & risk/vol $$ Apr 09, 2012
  • A Laugh @brucekrasting suggests that clearinghouses will concentrate risk rather than dissipating it. $$ #nomagic Apr 08, 2012
  • The Dividend-Fund Dilemma I buy dividend-paying stocks because they generate good cash flows, not for the dividend. Apr 08, 2012




  • Much $$ stuck overseas MT @ThemisSal: Just 5 companies, $AAPL, $MSFT, $CSCO, $GOOG and $PFE now hold nearly 25% of all corporate cash, $250B Apr 09, 2012
  • Yeh, like dat. 2 much $$ chasing 2 little value RT @The_Analyst: @AlephBlog another brilliant cerberus deal like chrysler, gmac? Apr 09, 2012
  • AT&T to Sell Majority of Yellow Pages Business to Cerberus Cigar butt industry; internet changes everything published Apr 09, 2012
  • Both MT @ktbenner: who’s overpaying now: The Zuck or Steve Feinberg… @Pfro: $T sells Yellow Pages 4 ~$1bn 2 Cerberus Apr 09, 2012
  • $AOL to Sell Patents to $MSFT 4 $1.1B Too much $$ chases a legal arms race in Infotech Intellectual property #waste Apr 09, 2012
  • @ReformedBroker I didn’t know Instagram that well, but they don’t seem to have a revenue model. What could $FB do with it? $$ Apr 09, 2012




  • RE: @marketfolly He compares AIG to P&C companies,  but the life companies are a valuation drag here.  Not a fair com… Apr 12, 2012
  • Property insurance rates rising worldwide – Marsh When surplus is reduced at (re)insurers, premium rates rise $$ Apr 11, 2012
  • Statutory Statements under Affiliated party transactions. Regulators would b annoyed if terms indicate transaction that’s not “arm’s-length” Apr 10, 2012
  • A Costly Toy Subsidized by Others If Guggenheim is using its insurers 2 fund Dodgers purchase, will show up in + $$ Apr 10, 2012




  • Spain’s spreads breaking away from other risk indicators “we r in an uncharted territory with respect to this widening” Apr 11, 2012
  • Has bad implications for EZ sustainability $$ RT @pdacosta: Who’s peripheral now? French economy grinds to a halt Apr 10, 2012
  • Currency disunion Why Europe’s leaders should think the unthinkable; EZ can breakup on own terms, or unfavorable terms Apr 09, 2012
  • Eurozone’s banks cutting dollar businesses European banks will never again rely hard on US MMFs to finance their $$ ops Apr 09, 2012
  • Euro Was Flawed at Birth and Should Break Apart Now All the things that I predicted have come true & more. Bye, Euro. Apr 08, 2012




  • Wind Power Seen Surging as Custom Barges Cut Set-up Costs Don’t see how this makes the cost of wind power economic $$ Apr 10, 2012
  • For Feds, ‘Lying’ Is a Handy Charge Law in the US becomes more arbitrary; crimes can b dreamed up by bureaucrats $$ Apr 10, 2012
  • Complexity Is Bad for Your Health Antonin Scalia & Stephen Breyer agree (!): Obama’s health care law unreadable $$ Apr 09, 2012
  • High-Speed Rail Takes Californians 4 a Ride Rail makes sense in densely populated areas, won’t work in California $$ Apr 09, 2012


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David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.

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