Sorted Weekly Tweets

Busy week last week.  Here’s the economic and other news:




  • Bloomberg: Inflated Notions Patrick Chovanec questions whether Chinese economic statistics are correct. $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • China’s Political Stability Questioned, while Deposit Withdrawals Accelerate Deposits exit China’s banks; many worry $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Asia dominates new treasury purchases If you want to favor your exporters, you have to suck in the debts of the buyers Apr 22, 2012
  • China’s Achilles heel Very difficult to change the practice of having fewer children once it is entrenched $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Son is a good man, more worthy than Dad $$ RT @mprobertson: & the first wife had a son. extra extra, read all about it Apr 19, 2012
  • Chinese Move to Wealth Products May Undermine Bank Stability Disintermediation happening increasing shadow bank risk $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Chinese Officialdom Indulges in the Almost-Free Lunch A modest subsidy/perk looks big if the 1 looking in is poor $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • The Power Shift in China Shifts: 1.weak leaders < strong factions 2. government < interest groups 3. party < country $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • More Chinese get US green card They know where they’ve got it good, not in the Socialist worker’s paradise! $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • So many Chinese officials r arrested 4 embezzling funds through Macau that 2 scholars devoted a study to the subject $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • That’s Governor Zhou to you Check out chart of central bank balance sheet growth China leads $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • China widens the range 4 currency fluctuations. Is it really making x-rate more flexible? PBOC still targets x-rate $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Rotting From Within Investigates the massive corruption of the Chinese military; makes corruption in the US look small Apr 18, 2012
  • Bo Xilai’s first wife gets her revenge at last Some Chinese r very good @ maintaining a grudge 4a long time $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • China Doubling Yuan Band Signals Drive for Convertibility Importance overstated; will not have a big effect on x-rate Apr 18, 2012
  • China Adds Treasuries for Second Month on Reserve Growth Export earnings have 2b invested somewhere $$ is best of bad Apr 18, 2012
  • China New Yuan Loans Surge in March as Money Supply Quickens Sounds inflationary, if not 4 goods, then 4 assets $$ Apr 18, 2012




  • Peak oil goes mainstream (again) Oil & Gas will never run out, but the price to get them could get high $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Feeling peaky “But there is a simpler explanation: that supply is inadequate to keep up with rising demand.” $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Could US natural gas run out of storage capacity? Yes, it could, and we could see the price of spot gas go 2 zero $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Delta’s Oil Refinery Plan Flies Against Economic Sense It rarely makes sense to be vertically integrated. $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Obama’s oil market plan more politics than substance Crude oil market is so big; would be difficult 2 game secretly Apr 18, 2012




  • Odds of bankruptcy Short table of bankruptcy odds: European banks = E-Zone Fringe > US Banks > Other nations $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • The bank-sovereign linkage in the Eurozone Not 2 surprising; governments & banks comprise most systemic risk $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Spain’s loan delinquencies accelerate Really ugly graph: The Spain issue is not dead $$ #ezonedead Apr 22, 2012
  • Paulson Said to Short Europe Bonds Amid Spain Concern This one isn’t as easy as shorting subprime. Be careful $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Modell Deutschland über alles Suggests EZone imitate German labor rules, but not austerity $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • French Campaign Enters Final Week With Hollande Extending Lead & widening recently; could make Ezone matters messy $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Downgrades Loom 4 Banks Moody’s Weighing Ratings Cuts to 114 Institutions in 16 European Countries $$ #lookoutbelow Apr 18, 2012
  • Spanish Minister Asks ECB to Buy Bonds as Crisis Deepens Things r calmer now but this is the path of least resistance Apr 18, 2012
  • Spain’s Surging Bad Loans Cast New Doubts on Bank Cleanup NPLs /totallending jumped to 8.16% in February, <1% in 2007 Apr 18, 2012
  • Weidmann says not ECB job to tackle Spain’s problems Famous last words $$ ECB only entity w/flexbility 2act fast Apr 18, 2012
  • Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Says Spain Is Worse Off Than It Was Before The LTRO It’s a solvency, not a liquidity problem Apr 18, 2012
  • GEORGE SOROS: The Euro Crisis Just Entered A ‘Less Volatile But More Lethal Phase’ LTRO papers overinsolvency probs Apr 18, 2012


Rest of the World


  • Argentina’s shadow FX rate shows total loss of confidence Dishonesty in one area makes others distrust u elsewhere $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Cristina: she is not alone Many nations engage in expropriation from foreigners. $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Pakistan And India To Go To War Over Water? Whiskey’s for drinking, water’s for fighting over — Mark Twain $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Unlikely but never say never RT @SCMITHA: @AlephBlog Sir No chance of war bet India & Pakistan both Nuclear Army Chief Kayani wants peace Apr 18, 2012
  • Mexico Manifesting its Own Destiny “Mexico has clearly stood out to me for its relative and absolute strength.” $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Japan’s Teachers Fund to Start Investing in REITs, Hedge Funds Trend following; late to the alternative assets party Apr 18, 2012

US Tax Policy & Pensions


  • Congress Eyes 401(k)s Again Interesting article on some possible/unlikely proposals to change 401(k)s $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • How to Pay No Taxes: 10 Strategies Used by the Rich The main problem is defining income, not tax rates on the rich $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Occupy defined-benefit pension funds! Employees would be better off with DB plans, even if had to fund them themselves Apr 22, 2012
  • New Suits Over Do-It-Yourself IRAs They aim for the wrong target; the custodian is only a conduit, not a referee $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • As population ages, institutions reduce equity holdings A first: US pensions have allocated more to bonds than equities Apr 18, 2012




  • The New York Times Company in 2015 An optimistic view of $NYT three years from now. I will not buy it. $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Joel Kotkin: The Great California Exodus Y California is in deep trouble & will shrink as better places r found $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Contra: Climate Change Has Nothing to Do With Al Gore Misinterprets Lk 16:2, & I am to believe he is a Christian? $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • The Celestial Event That Sparked a Revolution Fascinating tale on the transit of Venus across the Sun $$ #June6th Apr 22, 2012
  • The Downside of Cohabiting Before Marriage For a man & woman 2 live together long run requires decisive commitment $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Amazon’s knock-off problem (35 Shades of Grey, anyone?) Fascinating that some r knocking off books & selling on $AMZN Apr 18, 2012
  • Median age for first marriage spikes to record, holding back family formation Long-run effect on society won’t b good Apr 18, 2012
  • To Pay Off Loans, Grads Put Off Marriage, Children Far better to skip college than put off marrying & children $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • The 101 Finance People You Have To Follow On Twitter: A good list, but where’s @moorehn, @interfluidity, @edwardnh $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Dark Meat Getting a Leg Up on Boring Boneless Breast “Every single day we have shortage of dark meat.” Who knew? $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • ‘Pink Slime’ Furor Means Disaster for U.S. Meat Innovator The other side of the story; fighting bacteria in beef $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • RAIL TRAFFIC CONTINUES TO SOFTEN Economy slowing; just another straw blowing in the wind. $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Freeport Deal Talk Intensifies on Cheap Copper Would be a big deal & difficult to pull off; Interesting idea tho $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Taxes are filed and now I have some time to tweet, making up for lost time… Apr 18, 2012
  • @danprimack Private Investment Limited Partnership. Features: asset & profit-based fees. Limited liquidity & information. Aims high gets low Apr 17, 2012 (DM: defining “hedge fund” in 140 chars)


Economics & Finance Theory


  • Is modern portfolio theory bunk? Low volatility anomaly says bunk; if you didn’t know MPT was bogus alre ady-> #hopeless Apr 22, 2012
  • U.S. money supply growth offers bullish signal It is bullish in nominal terms for risk assets; not bullish for the rest Apr 22, 2012
  • Slump Taught Profligate Americans Value of Saving Having slack assets & not being in debt is a virtue not a vice $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • The Great Depression as a Credit Boom Gone Wrong Until the great depression is viewed as the bust after a credit boom + Apr 22, 2012
  • …we won’t get policy right. The credit cycle is real, & the Fed ignores it, providing liquidity as if it were not a structural problem. $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • El-Erian Breaches The Final Frontier: What Happens If Central Banks Fail? Goal: print enough credit until promises -> 0 Apr 18, 2012
  • Deflation Does Not Lead to a Depression, suggests Research Separate probs; falling inflation vs systemic impaired debts Apr 18, 2012
  • Depression is a choice Every creditor wants 2b paid off @ par; many debtors would like compromise, enabling econ growth Apr 18, 2012
  • Difficulties in forecasting the impact of shadow inventory on the housing market Mtge > value makes sales slow, $$ low Apr 18, 2012


Financial Markets


  • Are fixed income ETFs the new “securitization” product? Shows the many ways that sponsors make $$ off of ETFs Apr 22, 2012
  • Time for the SEC to institute new disclosure rules on CEO leverage Insider CEO deals r material & should be revealed $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Fear Barometer Bubbling Puts getting more expensive relative to calls on the S&P Apr 22, 2012
  • Is This the Book that Inspired Jamie Dimon’s Warnings About Regulation? Regs make banks behave alike ->systemic risk $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • @historysquared One question I always ask is how mgmt/directors treat outside passive minority shareholders. Do we ride the back of bus? $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • @historysquared Yeh, don’t let management control audit, nominating, or compensation committees. Split Chairman & CEO, etc., etc., etc… $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Regulators should encourage more diversity in the financial system Consistent regs create less diversity forces conform Apr 18, 2012
  • In New Funds, Old Flaws Some have high fees, longer-term tracking error, hidden counterparty risk, enable stupidity Apr 18, 2012
  • Why Investors Should Pay Attention to the JOBS Act of 2012 Here’s what Hunter thinks are the positives of the JOBS Act Apr 18, 2012
  • Fannie Mae Fix Said to Retain Some US Mortgage Role Crazy people @ UST. 2much debt on housing in general->instability Apr 18, 2012
  • Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Label More Junior Liens as Bad Assets Wow, this took a long time to finally happen $$ #reality Apr 18, 2012
  • Structured-Note Fees (etc) IBs must disclose likely value of securities, fees incurred in creation of the notes $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Citadel, Millennium Above $115 Billion With Rule Change Many hedge funds have borrowed lots; now we know how much $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Year’s first outflows from HY bond funds May eventually lead to $$ weakness Apr 18, 2012
  • Green Light for Hedge-Fund Ads Means Caution on Main Street Most people will not fare well w/complex investments $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Doing the Right Thing: Upside? Zero. Downside? Financial Ruin… We aren’t paid 2b sheriffs a la: $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Do Jubilee shares make any sense? I don’t think so. Unnecessary complexity; increased illiquidity; would not work $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • 12 Intriguing Insights on Mutual Funds Interesting mutual fund trivia from Morningstar $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Interesting post. But a successful spec on 1 risk can morph into credit risk post-crisis. … Apr 17, 2012
  • Falcone looks like a one-trick pony who made one lucky bet and won. Now he loses regularly. Apr 16, 2012