Sorted Weekly Tweets

Market Dynamics


  • On Paradigm Shifts Hunter takes us through mental exercises 2 make us intelligently contrarian. “Invert, Always Invert” May 02, 2012
  • Hedgers’ net short position vanishes in US oil Commercial interests do not fear lower prices, could be bullish 4 crude May 02, 2012
  • There’s Plenty of Money for Junk Presently the credit cycle is virtuous; vicious part is coming, but no appt set $$ May 02, 2012
  • Bad Models Mistook Housing Bust for Dot-Com Bubble Busts of assets that are heavily levered harder than unlevered $$ May 02, 2012
  • Best U.S. Real Estate With Self-Storage Self storage a winner in the past, may not do so well in the future; hi vals May 02, 2012
  • Marginal oil production costs are heading towards $100/barrel Same as my reasoning on high crude prices $$ May 02, 2012
  • Four-percent rule a relic, advisers say Better rule: 10y Tsy yield plus 0% if bearish, 1% if neutral, 2% if bullish $$ May 01, 2012
  • The remarkable resurgence in synthetic credit tranches Increases in the notional amounts of several corp bond swaps May 01, 2012
  • Contra: Black Scholes & the formula of doom Debt levels & Asset-Liab mismatch largest causes of crisis not BS model Apr 30, 2012
  • Energy’s Pain is Consumer Discretionary’s Gain I have been on the wrong side of this trade. Sigh. $$ Apr 30, 2012
  • Notes from the DoubleLine Lunch with Jeffrey Gundlach, Spring 2012 Gives a good overview, w/a large topping of snark $$ Apr 30, 2012




  • China’s Auditing Train Wreck Any Chinese firm listed in the US, the auditors should be subject to SEC scrutiny. $$ May 05, 2012
  • China bear Pettis says world coming around to his view Pettis isn’t a bear but a realist; invt-led growth overplayd $$ May 04, 2012
  • The Family and Corruption Family ties & group affiliation dominate economic/political power among Chinese Communists $$ May 04, 2012
  • Who is Fu? Chinese exile is ‘God’s double agent’ Story of a Chinese Pastor in US & escape of Chen Guangcheng $$ May 02, 2012
  • Microblogs Survive Real-Name Rules–So Far Even the CCP would have a hard time shutting down their Twitter-apps $$ May 02, 2012
  • Beijing’s secret: It’s not really loosening There is not enough demand in China 2 pay all of the high prices. $$ May 02, 2012
  • China’s Left Behind Children Economic growth that separates parents from children imposes significant costs on China $$ May 02, 2012
  • China Closes Unirule Website Founder receives award from Cato Institute; China government shuts down his website $$ May 02, 2012
  • China’s property boom has peaked, forever Amount of deadweight in China property is so large that prices have peaked $$ Apr 29, 2012


Financial Services


  • Caution: Contents May Be Hot I worry about ETF slippage from bad creation/redemption unit design & bad trading by users May 04, 2012
  • Well, That Was Awkward… Bank Chiefs’ Regulatory Concerns Met With Official Silence; maybe regulators getting fed up May 04, 2012
  • A talent shortage looms as the industry booms Financial planners getting old/retiring faster than the Baby Boomers $$ May 04, 2012
  • 2nd attempt2 automate bond trading 1st failed RT @BloombergNews: Goldman preps trading system for corporate bonds | May 04, 2012
  • Mortgage Rates in US for 30-Year Loans Fall to Record Low Mtge rates b nimble, MR b quick, MR go under limbo stick $$ May 04, 2012
  • Spending A Year On An M&A Bidding War Is Apparently Overrated It’s well-known that scale acquirers underperform $$ May 04, 2012
  • Every liability has an asset, but not every asset has a liability. Some are owned outright. May 03, 2012
  • Canadians Dominate World’s 10 Strongest Banks Ask again after their housing bubble pops, same 4 other fringe nations May 03, 2012
  • Pimco’s latest ETF shields against price spikes I wonder if active ETFs will have more performance slippage. $$ May 02, 2012
  • Hedge Funds Hurt by Volatility Hedge funds r vehicles that do better when credit spreads r tightening $$ May 01, 2012
  • Bond Market Is Creating A New Galaxy for Trading Dealer inventories thin; trading costs rise; electronic mkts start May 01, 2012
  • US banks still cutting commercial real estate exposure Banks still rotating out @ an almost constant rate since 2009 $$ Apr 30, 2012
  • Largest U.S. Banks Resist Federal Reserve’s Credit Limits Big banks need 2b broken up or shrunk; they don’t accept it Apr 29, 2012


US Fiscal/Regulatory Policy


  • CEOs rank Texas tops for business, California worst 8th year in a row for this survey; high taxes/regs annoy CEOs $$ May 04, 2012
  • Exposing the Medicare Double Count Same $$ being spent twice, must borrow the difference. May 02, 2012
  • Coburn: `We Ought to Totally Revamp Our Tax Code’ Very similar to my proposals; simplify code eliminate deductions $$ May 02, 2012
  • U.S. Considers Notes That Float Intermediate-dated Tsy floaters would trade above par, neg yields like TIPS $$ May 01, 2012
  • Trying to Shed Student Debt Lawmakers Rethink Bankruptcy-Law Ban on Walking Away From Education Loans $$ #slavery Apr 30, 2012
  • Can the US Economy Recover Without a Housing Recovery? It will probably have to try w/o housing’s assistance $$ Apr 30, 2012
  • Central Bank paper suggests house prices have ‘over-corrected’ Have Irish housing prices overshot? Tough 2 say. $$ Apr 30, 2012
  • Treasury floaters could b issued @ premium 2 par 2 inflation speculators allowing the Tsy 2 finance @ negative rates Apr 30, 2012
  • U.S. Perfecting Formula for Budget Failure, Says Bowles It’s nice 2b a part of a nation that is a global leader 😉 $$ Apr 30, 2012
  • Will TARP Make a Profit? That’s the Wrong Question Conflicting govt goals make policy hard 2 implement & interpret $$ Apr 30, 2012
  • You will buy more Govvies, or else Financial Repression, Quantitative Easing, Debt Monetization, Hyperinflation $$ Apr 30, 2012
  • On Student Loans, Accounting Gimmicks, Electric Cars, FX and a note on SS Hodgepodge of insight from @brucekrasting $$ Apr 30, 2012
  • “The Treasury should be issuing 100 year or perpetual bonds until the market can’t stand it anymore to lock in these … Apr 30, 2012
  • The floating YTMs will probably be negative, as interest rate speculators will pay more than par for the floating rat… Apr 30, 2012




  • The euro crisis just got a whole lot worse Election of Hollande may lead2 Euozone policy paralysis; growth v austerity May 04, 2012
  • Making eurozonians, or not The Eurozone was never a natural place to set up a shared currency. $$ May 04, 2012
  • Madness in Spain Lingers as Ireland Chases Recovery Ireland may b rebounding, as Spain’s slump deepens #austerity $$ May 02, 2012
  • Why the New York Times’s Paul Krugman is clueless about the European economic crisis Aside frm Ireland no austerity yet May 02, 2012
  • Core infection and eurozone PMIs Core of the EZone sluggish @ a time when it can least afford it $$ #depressionary May 02, 2012
  • ECB Measures Pushing Domestic Bonds Into Domestic Banks, Planting Seeds for Euro Disintegration Yeh, this da future $$ May 02, 2012
  • The rise in the Eurozone money supply has not improved credit conditions Euro M3 diverges from bank loans $$ May 01, 2012
  • The ECB lending to periphery governments via “backdoor SMP” How to stuff the ECB full of Eurofringe debt, c/o LTRO $$ May 01, 2012


Rest of the World


  • Brazil: cutting at any cost? Pushes up asset & price inflation, as currency held down 2aid exporters; unsustainable $$ May 04, 2012
  • Turkey Credit Rating Outlook Cut by S&P on Worsening Trade Wide current account def & hi external financing needs $$ May 02, 2012
  • Once poster child of crisis, Iceland recovers Letting banks fail & stiffing foreign creditors -> winning solution $$ May 02, 2012
  • Which emerging economies are at greatest risk of overheating? A gauge from the Economist on which Em Mkts r2 hot $$ Apr 29, 2012


Company News


  • Buffett’s CTB Adds Chicken Eviscerators in Dutch Purchase Buffett’s firm is no chicken; it has a lot of guts! 😉 $$ May 04, 2012
  • Sorry, really sorry… May 04, 2012
  • Ackman Rejects Canadian Pacific Deal Ruling Out CEO Pick Pick is former CEO of $CP rival $CNI – Bad blood; good CEO May 02, 2012
  • Impressive work Mr. Einhorn. The analyst that wrote up the question deserves praise; if you did that… May 01, 2012
  • Phillips 66 aims to run more shale oil LD: + $COP $PSX First day of trading for the new $PSX. Combo up 2%+ so far $$ May 01, 2012
  • Value investing does not mean cheap. It means margin of safety. Cemex does not have that. Look at the debt. $CX $$ May 01, 2012
  • Falcone Agrees To Step Aside “a final agreement may not be reached, and a bankruptcy filing was still possible” $$ Apr 30, 2012
  • Delta to buy US refinery for $150 million If zero is dumb & 100 is very dumb, this one scores in the 90s. $$ Apr 30, 2012
  • Discuss “At $1.7 billion, Nook is worth more than Barnes Spin off Nook 2 create value $$ $BKS $AMZN #interneteatsbooks Apr 30, 2012
  • @ampressman Would it have been value-enhancing to $BKS 2 sell the whole Nook unit 2 $MSFT, in your opinion? $$ Apr 30, 2012


Statistical Analysis


  • trading-and-the-null-hypothesis Problem:No academic journal wants2 publish studies with ‘no result’ as their conclusion May 04, 2012
  • . @thenumb47 Allows for too much of a specification search; would be good to require disclosure of everything tried but not published $$ May 03, 2012
  • Have to allow for accidents! RT @incakolanews: just scrub the word “validate” and I think you have a great idea May 03, 2012
  • Thus my proposal for economists: come up w/research idea: goes 2a database. Randomly assigned economist will analyze & trash/validate it $$ May 03, 2012
  • Unlike double-blind studies, raw statistical research allows health analysts to inject their own bias into the analysis, as economists do $$ May 03, 2012
  • Analytical Trend Troubles Scientists Health researchers using statistics like economists find ambiguous results $$ May 03, 2012




  • 14 Lessons From Benjamin Franklin About Getting What You Want In Life Advice from 1 of the wealthiest men of America $$ May 04, 2012
  • Is Wall Street Meeting God’s Expectations? Many Christians misuse the Bible; almost all non-Christians misuse it $$ May 03, 2012
  • What would Jesus trade? Many Christians misuse the Bible; almost all non-Christians misuse it; another example $$ May 03, 2012
  • And in a more honest way than Google RT @SconsetCapital: Long good, short evil. May 03, 2012
  • Apparel-Swapping Millennials Eschew Stores and Malls “Is that a new outfit?” “Well, it’s new to me!” An odd trend $$ May 03, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Kasriel was different enough that he will be missed, kind of like the sound of one hand clapping $$ #littledoghasbuddhanature May 01, 2012
  • The record 4 tallest bldg s/b based on weighted average height; weighting based on cross-sectional area @ height $$ Apr 30, 2012
  • So if you have something thin at the top, it wouldn’t count 4 much. A rectangular parallpiped would get full credit 4 height $$ #usingmath Apr 30, 2012
  • That would work, simpler than mine $$ RT @Pollack7: @AlephBlog Meh.Highest continuous occupancy floor. Apr 30, 2012
  • As the smartest boss I ever had said “Make bets, but never bet the franchise.” Apr 30, 2012


Monetary Policy


  • Bernanke Charts New Mission For Fed: Financial Stability Fed has a hard enuf time w/a double mandate, triple will b wrs May 02, 2012
  • Then again, if focusing on financial stability forces the Fed to be more restrained in its monetary policy, that would be good. $$ May 02, 2012
  • Bernanke: Be Humble! The picture says it: Humility in BB’s view: leaving monetary policy loose $$ May 01, 2012
  • My Speech Delivered at the New York Federal Reserve Bank An Austrian let loose amid the marble palace in NYC?! Wow. $$ Apr 29, 2012


US Politics


  • Renewed Hope that Jon Corzine, President Obama’s Top Tier Campaign Bundler, Will Face Criminal Charges J. Tavakoli $$ May 01, 2012
  • Occupy Wall Street Plans Global Protests in Resurgence #OWS won’t b effective until they organize as a 3rd party $$ + May 01, 2012
  • Or, organize to influence the Democrats the way the t-party does the Republicans. #OWS is irrelevant until then, b/c it doesn’t do anything May 01, 2012
  • Is that a bailout in your pocket? Boyazny, panel’s populist, replied that the credit markets had become “undemocratic” May 01, 2012