Sorted Weekly Tweets

A note to all of the actuaries in the audience, all three of you 😉 : an old friend from my GIC days is seeking a multi-talented actuary to work in the stable value business.  Must understand how wraps work, etc.  If interested, drop me a note, and I’ll send you the contact info.

On with the tweets:




  • May not last long $$ RT @John_Hempton: @AlephBlog Spain imposing on bank junior bonds but prefs in Santander still trading at par! Strange. Jun 23, 2012
  • Buying Europe Banks Is Easy for Herro as Cheap Stocks Fall Key question here is accounting quality; not a buyer $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • Spain Said to Weigh Imposing Losses on Junior Bank Bondholders Fine, but they won’t fund jr debt for 20yrs or so $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • Spanish Aid Plan Is Flawed, Says IMF IMF doesn’t like the complexity of the E-Zone, wants it 2 behave like a nation Jun 23, 2012
  • Debt crisis: Angela Merkel defies Latin Europe and the IMF on bond rescue She who pays the $$ calls the tunes Jun 23, 2012
  • What’s So Special About the Euro Currency Area? Currency unions don’t work; must centralize or die $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Merkel Balks at Sovereign Debt Purchases to Overcome Crisis Physically, the crisis looks like it is wearing on Angela Jun 21, 2012
  • Spanish short-term debt costs reach alarm levels Yields high enough that Spain unlikely to grow out of the debt $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Cyprus Said to Face Europe Pressure for $13 Billion Aid Who wants to maintain influence in Cyprus? Russia, E-zone? $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • ‘ @aarontask He might b right. Key Q is how much Germans/Nordics/Dutch view themselves as Europeans 1st rather than Germans/Nordics/Dutch $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Greek Leaders Poised to Agree on Three-Way Coalition It will be difficult for that coalition 2 hold together $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Mañana-nomics at Los Cabos Weak Europoliticians blame US, when their banking system was overlevered & malregulated $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • G20 summit: perils of a half-baked rescue for Spain and Italy E-zone not ready 2 take strong actions; don’t force it $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Is Spain past the point of no return? ‘’I suspect the ECB will have to be the buyer of last resort for Spanish bonds.’’ Jun 19, 2012
  • Saddling Spain With Bank Burden Repeats Irish Error Protect deposits, not bank bonds, preferreds, or stocks $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • “Which is why $JPM had the hedge there in the first place $$” Dimon Says ‘Firewalls’ May Halt Spread of Europe Crisis Jun 19, 2012
  • Germany set to allow eurozone bailout fund to buy troubled countries’ debt Last refuge of scoundrels:blame speculators Jun 19, 2012
  • François Hollande said meeting btw Ezone & Obama rescheduled4this morning2brief Americans on “mechanisms that allow us to fight speculation” Jun 19, 2012
  • Spanish Yields at 7% Show Investors Slamming Door Spain is slowly passing the “tipping point” into hopelessness. $$ Jun 18, 2012
  • Where is the relief? RT @jennablan: Where is the relief rally? Jun 18, 2012

FOMC Meeting/Press Conference


  • Fed Seen Extending Operation Twist and Avoiding Bond Buys Fed can’t do nothing, so it does something that is nothing Jun 21, 2012
  • RT @ezraklein: Hypothesis: Bernanke doesn’t do more because he doesn’t think he can. He says otherwise is because he doesn’t want the ma … Jun 20, 2012
  • Dr. Bernanke: Couldn’t increased unemployment be structural, after all, there is a lot more competition from labor in emerging markets? Jun 20, 2012
  • That’s all folks!!! Jun 20, 2012
  • Dr. Bernanke, Isn’t stagflation a possibility here? I mean, no one expected it in the ’70s either. $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Q for Bernanke: If the Fed ever does shrink its balance sheet, what effect will it have on the banks? $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Stocks trading off — correlated with future inflation rates; long Treasuries rallying nominal yields falling -> real rates stable-ish $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • What Bernanke is describing in terms of hedging and risk management has to be done in the insurance industry; actuarial risk analyses Jun 20, 2012
  • W/MBS rates, those mtges that are underwater don’t benefit, same for Alt-A & Jumbo; low rates don’t help many in residential real estate $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Effect of Tsy ylds on corporate yields is stronger 4 AAA-A bonds, moderate 4 BBB bonds, little 4 junk & the effects get weaker w/maturity $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • That’s the wrap up for the central tendencies and averages of the FOMC’s additional data release. Anyone find those summaries useful? $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Changes in Avg Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End 2012-2014, Longer -0.07%, -0.10%, -0.22%, -0.09% $$ Levels: 0.30%, 0.50%, 1.11%, 4.11% Jun 20, 2012
  • Average appropriate timing of policy firming moved out 1.6 months to November 2013 $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Changes in PCE Inflation central tendency 2012-2014, Longer -0.4)%, -0.07%, -0.12%, 0% $$ Levels: 1.48%, 1.76%, 1.77%, 2.00% Jun 20, 2012
  • Changes in unemployment central tendency 2012-2014, Longer +0.18%, +0.20%, +0.24%, +0.03% $$ Levels: 8.10%, 7.71%, 7.28%, 5.60% Jun 20, 2012
  • Changes in real GDP growth central tendency 2012-2014, Longer -0.50%, -0.37%, -0.11%, -0.04% $$ Levels: 2.13%, 2.57%, 3.28%, 2.44% Jun 20, 2012
  • +1 RT @bondscoop: Steve Liesman is the Fed’s Helen Thomas Jun 20, 2012
  • Fed wants to see long TIPS up in price relative to long nominal Treasuries. Jun 20, 2012
  • @TheStalwart #FOMCGuesses OT extended, no QE3, central tendencies move back to where they were in January, shades lang down GDP, CPI, etc $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • C’mon, Ben, Just Say It; Please, Just Say QE3 Sad that equity guys beg 4 stimulus; think OT extends; no QE3 yet $$ Jun 20, 2012


Rest of the World


  • Glencore Protests Bolivia’s Move on Mine Bolivia has Venezuela envy; won’t end until Morales is shown 2b a fail. $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • Children of Mao’s wrath vie for power in China All of the current ruling class survived the Cultural Revolution $$ Jun 22, 2012
  • Riskier Bets Pitched to Asia’s Rising Rich Yield is the oldest scam in the books; Asia’s brokers fleece clients $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • China warns its rare earth reserves are declining I doubt this, but if true -> significant scarcity of rare earths $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Britain doomed, apparently Countries that don’t reset their systems through default, will experience money decay $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Suicides, Arrests Show Trouble at Korean Savings Banks Pride drives suicides, rather than confession of wrongdoing $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • The UN’s Internet Power Grab Never surrender an advantage for no gain; does the Obama administration get that? $$ Jun 18, 2012
  • The Return of Egypt’s ‘Deep State’ Islamists & liberals checkmated by Egyptian Army 4 now. Liberals s/b glad $$ Jun 17, 2012
  • @dpinsen Agreed, better H/L would have been: “Egyptian Army reveals full control, ends show that played w/democracy 2 smoke out enemies” $$ Jun 17, 2012
  • Noda Ends Japan Nuclear Freeze, Risking Voter Backlash at Polls He does the right thing, but will the voters agree $$ Jun 17, 2012




  • A History of Money Funds Let the critics of money market funds apply the same2banks; mark2market accounting. $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • Bank Investors Dismiss Moody’s Cuts as Years Too Late True. Moody’s should’ve done it in 2008; did politics stopthem? Jun 23, 2012
  • Citigroup Faces $5 Billion on Dollar’s Rise, Peabody Says So, on the heels of $JPM, $C has a currency mismatch? $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Eminent domain for underwater mortgages could have biggest impact on banks Comments at end; disagreement welcomed $$ Jun 20, 2012


Central Banking


  • Bernanke Acknowledges Tsy Strategy @ Odds W/Fed Policy “Thx, Unca Ben 4letting us issue morre 30s” Ben:”Arrrgh!” $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • The Fed’s second best solution “collateral damage will mount, making the next policy steps even more excruciating.” Jun 21, 2012
  • Fed Born of Morgan’s Bailout Under Scrutiny After Dimon’s Loss How significant is it 4 Jamie D 2b on NY Fed board? $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Krugman’s Intellectual Waterloo Suggested possible Fed stimulus: blow housing bubble 2replace tech bubble $$ Jun 17, 2012
  • Also, the last H/L could have been: “Bernanke’s GDP View Invalidated as Economy Slows” FOMC has been lousy economic forecasters lately $$ Jun 17, 2012
  • Bernanke’s Inflation View Validated as Commodities Fall Median & Trimmed mean CPIs mot falling, better measures $$ Jun 17, 2012


Asset Management


  • Pimco’s Gross Warns of Risk Assets as Aberdeen Avoids Stocks Bill Gross signs on to deflation late & promotes it $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • Private Equity Has Too Much Money to Spend on Homes Big buyers need to stay quiet if they want 2 make good returns $$ Jun 22, 2012
  • Simon Lack responds to AIMA’s hedge fund cheerleading Backfill bias, IRR vs Buy&Hold, high fees, survivor bias $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • At 40,000 feet, Fidelity’s Danoff ponders Groupons Danoff is a survivor; he’s right it’s lonely 2b a stockpicker $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Very good point. Wall Street is a 1-note Sam RT @chadstarliper: Has there ever been a time when Wall St didn’t think stocks were “cheap?” $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Wall Street says stocks are bargains, but that assumes surging profits Or at least growing sales w/flat profit mgns $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • America’s $8T corporate debt market faces liquidity drought as banks retreat from the trade Shouldn’t b that bad $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Equities entail less risk than ‘haven’ investments Ain’t necessarily true; think of the Great Depression or 1871 $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Valuation Matters…. Equity vs Bonds Edition Earnings ylds v Tsy ylds unstable; Q-ratio, CAPE10, Price/resources bettr Jun 19, 2012
  • Biggest Stocks Beat S&P 500 Most in 13 Years as Valuations Fall Once valuations get so low, they must go up $$ Jun 18, 2012




  • DuPont selling Conoco at oil mkt trough $$RT @BarbarianCap: “Delta seals deal to buy Pennsylvania refinery” > hasn’t that been tried before? Jun 23, 2012
  • DuPont buying Conoco at oil mkt peak $$ RT @BarbarianCap: “Delta seals deal to buy Pennsylvania refinery” > hasn’t that been tried before? Jun 23, 2012
  • J.C. Penney Falls After Francis Leaves Amid Strategy Flop Rare setback 4 Ackman/Pershing on $JCP; retail is tough $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Buffett Extends Real-Estate Bet With ResCap Pursuit Buffett is early, in my opinion, but has the capital to do it $$ Jun 18, 2012




  • US public retiree benefits gap grows to $1.38T Gap widened by $120 billion since last year; thx Ben 4 low discnt rates Jun 20, 2012
  • Joe Nocera Is Wrong About Woonsocket’s Crisis Harder2discharge muni “pension” bonds than renegotiate muni pensions $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • GM Seen Fueling Pension Deals as Employers Face Shortfall Hope $MET & $PRU survive; guaranty funds limited in size $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Terminal funding of DB pension plans will be a growing phenomenon if corps/states bite bullet and kick in more $$ to fund annuity purchases Jun 19, 2012
  • Problem to annuitants is companies can go broke; no PBGC coverage of annuities, and state guarantees r usually limited 2 $100,000 total $$ Jun 19, 2012




  • Love the Leaker, Hate the Leak Value of releasing sensitive govt data to the public is in the eye of the beholder $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • How David Weidner Changed My Life @reformedbroker – how getting on @davidweidner ‘s Top 10 list gave him a big boost $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • +1 won’t watch RT @ReformedBroker: Bloomberg PR pushing their Meredith Whitney interview video hard today. They haven’t gotten the memo yet. Jun 19, 2012
  • Wrong: 20 rules that can save you from the Doomsday Cycle Why does Marketwatch give Paul Farrell space 2 write? $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • So long, suckers — I’m leaving Wall Street David Weidner: Some lessons from 15 years observing the industry $$ Jun 19, 2012




  • Liquidity, Noise, and Signal Shorter the time period-> higher ratio noise/signal; leads2bad trades @ turning points $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • ‘ @JATranfo Never criticized ECRI when out of favor; FWIW, I reverse-engineered their main model: industrial commod pxs & credit spreads $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Lawmakers Push for Overhaul of IPO Process Every “fix” creates its own set of problems. Mania can hit auctions 2 $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Yes $$ RT @Fullcarry: A point I have made many times in the past: the drop in yields the past decade is mostly due to a drop in real rates. Jun 20, 2012
  • Housing Starts in U.S. Fall 4.8% in May on Apartments Interesting contrary data; $EQR chart $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Asians Top Immigration Class Certainly noticeable here in Ellicott City; most businesses have signs in Korean $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Poorly reasoned: Court-Ordered Care — A Complication of Pregnancy 2 Avoid Mothers w/child in womb uniquely affect child Jun 18, 2012
  • Please follow @jarrodwilcox, He has taught me many things, and I respect him a great deal #FF Jun 17, 2012
  • A Jewish-Asian Couple’s Union Leads to a Scholarly Interest in Intermarriage Both ethnic groups prize education $$ Jun 17, 2012




  • DavidMerkel’s discussion on “The New Yorker’s Newest Writer Is a Big Self-Plagiarist” Writing belongs2those that paid Jun 20, 2012
  • “High energy particle physics is only a small part of science, and not adequate to measure the…” — David_Merkel Jun 20, 2012
  • “Please, accidents per passenger mile would be better, rather than: “He also pointed to the fact…” — David_Merkel Jun 20, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview Maybe DC city govt should start a reality TV show, w/prizes 2 the official who commits the most cr… Jun 20, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview  How will you deal with deferral of individual taxes on investment from DC plans, unrealized CGs, … Jun 20, 2012
  • “Cool picture, Ed. Thanks for sharing it.” — David_Merkel Jun 19, 2012
  • “Hitting the fiscal cliff won’t happen, and that’s too bad, because we need to discuss long-term imbalances” — D_Merkel Jun 19, 2012
  • “Here is a proposal for how rating agencies could be eliminated:…” — David_Merkel Jun 19, 2012
  • “I trust ratings agencies more than mismanaged governments. Ratings are needed to provide…” — David_Merkel Jun 19, 2012
  • “If this is representative of what the ruling Greek coalition will do, the government will fail…” — David_Merkel Jun 19, 2012
  • “Much as we may dislike financial fraud, suggesting that those in the US that mismanaged their banks…” — David_Merkel Jun 19, 2012
  • ‘ @FilmCriticOne You say u want tax reform, but ur willing2let value grow untaxed through deferral? Get real; ability2defer is the issue $$ Jun 16, 2012


Dimon for Fed Secretary


  • @dlevineMW @moorehn and pay cut. The same rumors were applied to Hank Greenberg $AIG 4 Tsy Secretary user Bush, Sr. Said the same then $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Jamie kind2let us live in his world 😉 RT @ReformedBroker He’s hedging the Senate w/the House right now, y’all r just pawns in a bigger game Jun 19, 2012
  • Why should Jamie accept the demotion? $$ RT @moorehn: This is just Jamie practicing for confirmation hearings as Treasury Secretary, right? Jun 19, 2012


Tax Policy


  • Tax Panels Turn Focus to Investments Best poss is lowering corp tax rates, equalizing all tax rates for individuals Jun 23, 2012
  • How to Kill the Corporate-Income Tax Evens out personal income tax rates by class. Good, but what about deferral? $$ Jun 20, 2012