Day: July 21, 2012

Packages! Packages!

Packages! Packages!

When I started doing stock investing, I began sending off information requests to 70-120 companies at a time via mail.? In those days, I would print off the letters at my computer, and mailing labels as well.? I would generate the addresses from the AAII Stock Investor program that I still use.

But I got my kids into the game:

  • One kid would put the stamp on the envelope.
  • The next would put on the address label.
  • I would sign the letter, and compare the addresses hand the letter and envelope to the next kid.
  • The letter would be folded and stuffed by the next kid.
  • The next kid would seal the envelope, and drop it in a box.

It was fun to do that, but it was even more fun when the flood of “packages” came.? When I got home from work, I would grab the mail from the mailbox, and would call the children to me.

“Packages! Packages!” they would say.? I would sit on the floor, my back against the couch, and the kids would sit in a U around me.? I would open each package, and tell them:

  • Where the company is.
  • What the company does.

In this case, the annual report was a help, because the pictures aided the understanding of the children.? At the end, I would point to the “stuffed shirt board of directors.”? I have never thought much about directors, because they are mostly lapdogs of the management.? I also have thought that directors are a waste of resources, and should be eliminated.? Let the shareholders elect the CEO directly.? Yes, I know this would be awkward, but maybe we should pursue the idea that boards aren’t that useful.

After I answered questions from my children, I would analyze the data that the companies sent me.? I found the comparison across companies to be useful.

But later I found that I could submit the data requests over the internet.? So, no more paper letters.? But for some time, I would still ask via e-mail for companies to mail me physical data, which I would share with my kids.

Today, I read everything online.? There are no more packages in my mailbox, and I wonder if that is not a loss.? When I got physical mail, I would spend more time reading it than now, when I read it online.? There is more leisure in reading the physical text, than reading the online version.? Online, we all tend to move more quickly, and we ignore things that we shouldn’t.? I am reconsidering getting paper data from companies.? It is much easier to curl up with and analyze, with fewer distractions.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

 

Eurozone

 

  • Indebted Valencia asks Spain government for help, markets jolted http://t.co/lDkPC9U2 Better to let a region fail, than bail them out $$ Jul 21, 2012
  • Favoring the French, a lesson in perception from bonds http://t.co/qa5CJEgL France’s advantage: big, which is weak 4 creditworthiness $$ Jul 21, 2012
  • Estonia is admirable for their courage, though I can’t imagine why you would want to be part of the Eurozone NOW $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • Krugmenistan vs. Estonia http://t.co/1tJssWqG Post private debt bubble, Estonia froze pensions, lowered govt wages ~10% & + VAT by 2% $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • Demand for Spanish Debt Continues to Evaporate http://t.co/TMdIV05Y Piecemeal solutions continue to fail as 10-year rises over 7% $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • Merkel Says Bailout Liability Undecided http://t.co/HuggOawS “We always get the majority we need,” Ms. Merkel said. $$ Jul 16, 2012

 

US Economic Policy

 

  • FSOC Supports Overhaul to Trim Risk of Money-Market Runs http://t.co/nD1CKeqv Federal Govt owned by the banks, who want to axe a rival $$ Jul 21, 2012
  • Let States Do the Tax-Collecting Dirty Work http://t.co/Uq1LmPwI States could decide how to tax & remit to the Feds. +1 $$ Jul 21, 2012
  • How the Elites Built America?s Economic Wall http://t.co/ifCcBhX6 Interesting take on how some “blue state” policies promote inequality $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • Treasury Auctions 10-Year TIPS at Record Low Negative Yield http://t.co/XvnQmLtg Lock in a loss against CPI to avoid a poss bigger loss $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • The Coming Defense Crack-Up http://t.co/JKZycDO4 If it forced us to reprioritize Defense & other Federal spending, could b good thing $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • D&R parties are rival teams @ same country club $$ RT @ampressman: @AlephBlog Yeah, who else would do such a thing? http://t.co/yN4GyGat Jul 19, 2012
  • The GOP’s Solyndra Wing http://t.co/eNvLU1Wb Republicans who love corporate welfare; this is not merely a problem of the Democrats $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • Post Office Might Miss Retirees’ Payment http://t.co/YvpRVLWe Draining pension funds is a stopgap, not a real solution. Raise prices. $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • QE, negative yields and the paradox of thrift http://t.co/oUM0hkI0 QE not only raises asset prices, but liability values as well $$ #fail Jul 18, 2012
  • At a Wharton conf 22 years ago, I said neg rates were possible b/c of deflation combined w/need to pay to store cash. Instructor laughed. $$ Jul 18, 2012
  • U.S. Public-Pension Shortfall $4.6 Trillion, Budget Group Says http://t.co/Y4fq7tj0 Probably a little high; Tsy discount rates severe $$ Jul 18, 2012
  • How Much Could States Benefit From Online Sales Tax? http://t.co/9d3eYZz4 Would bail out a decent amount of many states’ deficits $$ Jul 18, 2012
  • Wrong: Industrial Production in U.S. Rises in Sign of Resilience http://t.co/RfNT4hM6 Data revisions > current period estimates beat $$ Jul 17, 2012
  • Ponzi Scheme? http://t.co/kU4Yx1CW Cities r going BK b/c they didn’t adequately project their funding needs?will community ass’ns b next? $$ Jul 17, 2012
  • Calpers Misses Big on Investment Target http://t.co/HIRzXnw1 Assets < Liabs; A: +1% L: +7.5, plus val adj from 7.75%. Assets <<< Liabs $$ Jul 17, 2012
  • Romneyconomics – Good but incomplete http://t.co/6n869J9j Generally agree, but shoddy logic in the middle about GDP & debts $$ Jul 16, 2012
  • Treasuries Doomsday Is Four Years Away for Vanguard http://t.co/nAz67Q3k Vanguard is largest private owner of US debt @ $148 billion $$ Jul 16, 2012

 

Miscellaneous

 

  • I get amused when people misspell Warren Buffett’s name as Buffet. But a high profile organization: @Bloomberg? $$ http://t.co/NRsc8plk Jul 20, 2012
  • New Sleeping Pill Thwarts Brain?s Up-All-Night Neurons http://t.co/6I0LglFG $MRK Blocks a tiny group of receptors that keep body alert $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • Fore Sale http://t.co/mkUeWlVb On the plunging prices for houses where you also have to pay annual membership dues for the golf club $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • Task named editor in chief of Yahoo Finance http://t.co/7aiATNa6 Congratulations 2 @atask ! Great job @ important financial web resource $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • New Yahoo CEO Mayer is pregnant http://t.co/Kq7ICTcD Happy for the couple; risk to put off kids into late 30s; hope her delivery is easy $$ Jul 17, 2012
  • Contra: The Secret Behind Romney?s Magical IRA http://t.co/uQHbSbWc Misses preferred shares & valuation issues; better work elsewhere $$ Jul 16, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Japanese Consumers Reconsidering Rice Loyalty http://t.co/W4WuhvKj Food grown in Japan is suspect since Fukushima; foreign rice limited $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • Fast slowdown $$ RT @Thevalueteam: China?s steel and concrete sectors are indicative of something potentially wrong http://t.co/ufK0Vaob ^KM Jul 17, 2012
  • China’s Version of ‘Too Big to Fail’ http://t.co/tNKduuPn Never knew China had a CDO mkt; also suggests a private equity bubble in China $$ Jul 16, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Here?s Another Indicator Pointing Toward Recession http://t.co/c3ImTeZF Sharp cuts in earnings estimates indicate a recession coming $$ Jul 21, 2012
  • Mortgage Bonds Yield Hopeful Signs on Housing Recovery http://t.co/gzm1Fefi A lot of disagreement over proper credit loss assumptions $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • Plotting a Securitization Sequel http://t.co/WE0uhTYI Don’t think securitizing rental payments will work. no property behind cashflow $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • Economic Fears Hurting Obama, Poll Indicates http://t.co/vq7JzIEe No surprise, there are few policies that work against debt deflation $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • Everyone Hates Treasurys Now http://t.co/LGYAIcTU That’s what makes it such a great trade @carney, w/many needing2invest 4 long liabs $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • Passel of articles on LIBOR-like scandals http://t.co/lQfSaOUE & http://t.co/64rzFL5q & http://t.co/GQJnUZZK Damages hard2prove $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • Failing to Connect the Boom to the Bust http://t.co/jrKGIVKs Surges in debt r associated w/booms in asset prices, vice-versa 4 busts $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • CMBS Leverage Most Since ?07 as Standards Loosen http://t.co/1R5FYTwb 4a long time I was a realtive fan of CMBS, but now I say: AVOID $$ Jul 18, 2012
  • They got hit by the shalestorm $$ RT @PlanMaestro: Wilbur Ross Says U.S. Coal Is Facing Years Of Headwinds http://t.co/2TJMPDQ8 Jul 17, 2012
  • Contra: Libor Flaws Allowed Banks to Rig Rates Without Conspiracy http://t.co/khuqkHTr Does not proves its case; just hypotheticals $$ Jul 16, 2012
  • Negative Real Interest Rates: The Conundrum for Investment and Spending Policies http://t.co/OTDe5p9Y Policies should follow nomnl yields $$ Jul 16, 2012

 

Companies

 

  • Marissa Mayer: Google?s Chic Geek http://t.co/Ge3zFk1l Good background piece on new CEO of $YHOO. Q: Can a technologist make a good CEO? $$ Jul 16, 2012
  • Buffett Empowers Deputies by Raising Funds to $8 Billion http://t.co/6C3YO1Ml Note: buying smaller companies than WB does but still big $$ Jul 16, 2012

 

Comments

 

  • @jake_f My original tweet stems from CMBS-like structures that did not fare well, b/c underlying property economics was too volatile $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • @jake_f That’s a good point; if they use that structure, could work, but will they have high enough “interest rates” to absorb losses? $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • @jake_f @DavidSchawel It’s probably a little of both; housing prices improving on low end, but there is a huge demand for yield now $$ Jul 20, 2012
  • @historysquared US paid down much of their debts post-WWII, inflated away more Jul 20, 2012
  • RT @AmyResnick: RT @SimonCYWong: Entertaining cartoon primer on #Basel 3: What it is & why it is needed http://t.co/rM0zPNkM via @fo … Jul 20, 2012
  • “We home school. We replace the teacher. Superior to the public schools because one-on-one?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Hia2soVu $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • “Good for you, KD. Glad you are safe, and powered. I grew up in Wisconsin, so I was used to the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/FjYt10DN $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • @jdstein I’m not saying those things aren’t in the LDS; those exist in other religions 2. It’s not what makes the LDS distinctive. Jul 19, 2012
  • @jdstein I am referring to the eighth and ninth paragraphs of the original article. Jul 19, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview The virtues of Mormonism that the author thinks exist are not core to Mormonism. Romney knows well? http://t.co/qj5VH9gZ Jul 19, 2012
  • @kyles09 I’m in the Austrian School w/slight modification from the Santa Fe Institute Jul 19, 2012
  • @Jesse_Livermore @PragCapitalist Total share to wages down, profits up, well known since 1990. Profit margins will mean-revert someday $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • @Jesse_Livermore @PragCapitalist Ok, I get it, though my wage figure is a little higher. Real GDP rising @ 2.5%/yr vs real avg wages @ 1%/y Jul 19, 2012
  • @Jesse_Livermore @PragCapitalist You might need to spill the calculation for me, I don’t see that. Jul 19, 2012
  • @PragCapitalist At least for the average, no not stagnant, maybe not as good as post WWII, & it might be worth looking at median vs mean. $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • @PragCapitalist and the CPI-U average is 2.51%, looks like about 1% real average wage growth, which doesn’t seem unreasonable. Jul 19, 2012
  • @PragCapitalist looking at the AWI tables, http://t.co/Xy1cg1VZ it has almost doubled over that period – 3.47%/yr compounded $$ Jul 19, 2012
  • RE: @marketfolly They are all ruling out a depression scenario. Long Treasuries continue to rally; very contrarian. http://t.co/GumjLkeJ Jul 18, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview Thanks for the old news; trouble is, kids need downtime, and our schools aren’t very good — your ? http://t.co/XBEWunfe Jul 18, 2012
  • @stockspot2000 Interesting, have not seen evernote before. Thanks. Jul 18, 2012
  • @footnoted Pension and healthcare systems will not be able to fund the obligations; lesser benefits will be paid. $$ Jul 18, 2012
  • Could we audit the gold at Fort Knox, also? Amazing secrecy there. http://t.co/cclHfpLk Jul 17, 2012
  • @mattyglesias Heard you on NPR this evening, please review http://t.co/kvzJmCXQ because it explains Romney’s IRA strategies. $$ Jul 18, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview Fail: you did not mention the preferred stock. You did not do your homework. This is a perfect e? http://t.co/74HUrube Jul 16, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap I’m glad you like it; it works out to a minute per every 4 tweets — making it 1 of my shorter writing efforts for my blog $$ Jul 15, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap So far I have turned down a few book deals, mainly 4 time use reasons: asset management biz doesn’t support the family yet $$ Jul 15, 2012

 

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