Sorted Weekly Tweets

Note: Tomorrow (Saturday) I will be on WBAL Radio at 8:30 AM Eastern with local radio host Jimmy Mathis, talking about the markets.  If you are up, they do stream the broadcast.


Market Dynamics


  • Six Weeks of Green: Stocks Quietly Creep Higher Markets move up at half the speed they go down $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • Premiums dominate in HY CEFs & loan participation CE funds, even the investment grade funds r seeing discounts fade. Too hot. $$ #yieldlust Aug 17, 2012
  • T. Rowe Price Small Cap Fund Veteran Preston Athey to Exit in 2014 One of $TROW ‘s finest takes a less active role $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Firm’s Equity Assets Makes me bearish on gold. Bad mkt could b a forced seller $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • What should I do with my money now? My view is this, if acctg is conservative, buy stocks P/TB < 1.5, P/E < 10 $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Usage: That was a real Facebook of an IPO! 2) We really Facebooked the IPO buyers! 3) Avoid this IPO, it’s going 2b a real Facebook! $FB $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Facebook puts follow-on on ice Avoiding adding insult to injury. Lousy IPOs in the future will be called “Facebooks” $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • It’s usually a bad sign when locals are selling, and foreigners buying. How do foreigners have more knowledge? $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • Man overrides machine to tackle low bond yield risk Momentum isn’t everything w/bonds, eventually mean reversion. $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • Whenever you mention CDS spreads, could you do us the favor of citing that spreads bonds are trading at? You are, aft… Aug 15, 2012
  • You Are Now About to Witness the Strength of Street Knowledge Having a revenue model is an aid to stock performance $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Even Amid the Current Turmoil, Stocks Still Beat Bonds Issuing this opinion: a crowded trade $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • Silver Hoard Near Record as Hedge-Fund Bulls Recoil Pressure for prices to fall amid ETF-based hoarding $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • Junk-Bond Buyers Plot Escape in Debt Gap Smart money moving up in liquidity & down in yield. Junk rally continues $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • A Green Light for Car Loans Banks, Finance Firms Boost Auto Lending; Fed Survey Finds Easier Standards $$ #moredebt Aug 14, 2012
  • Stocks: The ‘Safety’ Dance Defensive stock valuations high relative to cyclicals. Graph: $$ Aug 13, 2012
  • As Corporate-Bond Yields Sink, Risks for Investors Rise Maybe. Debt-deflation has a funny way of persisting $$ Aug 13, 2012


Rest of World


  • Mexico’s big oil problem Yrs of abuse &non-investment by PEMEX, milked by the govt, oil production declining fast $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • Iranian Currency Traders Find a Haven in Afghanistan Sorta fitting that Afghans make $$ breaking sanctions on Iran $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • Rate Cuts on the Cards for Norway and Sweden We need a new Gresham’s Law on Monetary Policy. See in next tweet $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Bad monetary policy drives out good monetary policy when large countries inflate, & exporters in small countries complain about losses $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • You can say that again $$ RT @saraeisenFX: More signs of worsening credit quality in China Aug 17, 2012
  • Aramco Says Virus Attacks Network, Oil Output Unaffected What shall we call this? The Cold Techno-War? $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • The only way out for China: Andy Xie Problems only going2get worse as long as government interferes $$ #chinacrash Aug 15, 2012
  • Beijing Loan Guarantee Firm Teeters on the Edge A sign of things to come, and how will China deal with the defaults? $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • China’s money outflow continues in July The wealthy of China send capital abroad, so that they can survive anything $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • German Provinces Struggle to Lure Skilled Workers Europe can find work, but will have to find it in Germany $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • Correlation Breakdown as Proxies for Risk Boost Aussie, Kiwi Countries w/good $$ policy draw funds, harming exporters Aug 14, 2012
  • Africa’s pirates have demands – and letterhead, too Not intimidation, merely “making you an offer you can’t refuse” $$ Aug 13, 2012
  • Mursi Sidelines Egypt’s Top Generals Amid Power Struggle Push is coming to shove; Military vs Muslim Brotherhood $$ Aug 13, 2012


US Economy


  • The case for supply-side tax cuts Tax increase of 1% of GDP reduces output over the next 3 years by nearly 3% $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • London Firings Seen Surging as Finance Firms Add NY Jobs Finance jobs grow where the regulations are lowest $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • 5 years forward, five year inflation: Seems to top out @ 2.7% recently, 3% longer-term $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • Farmland Prices Surge Across the Plains States Poss causes: hi grain prices & widespread use of crop insurance $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • The Downside of a Recovery in Housing “potential uptick in inflation measures, of which housing is a big component” Aug 16, 2012
  • Will births come back with the economy? Yes, people have more children when they are optimistic about the future $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Wrong: What if baby boomers don’t live forever? Even if mortality does not improve @ prior rate, makes little $$ diff Aug 15, 2012
  • Mathematically Possible Correcting the false assumptions of Obama’s tax gurus | Govt in DC is always dishonest $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • Clarity of communication is not the Fed’s problem. If you have bad policy, it doesn’t matter how you present it. Aug 13, 2012




  • Unions protest Democrats at Illinois State Fair Govt workers learn hard reality. Benefits not protected by ERISA + $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • Which means underfunded benefits may never b paid at the level promised. Taxes can’t b raised enough to make it work, either. Sorry $$ 🙁 Aug 18, 2012
  • @mckpartners There r 3 parties not getting blame here aside from the standard ones: 1) accountants that dreamed up lousy funding rules + $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • @mckpartners 2) Actuaries didn’t pushback on investment assumptions & 3) Union negotiators thot they were smart trading salary 4 pensions $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • Annals of dubious research, 401(k) loan-default edition 401k loan defaults r 2% of what widely-cited study claims $$ Aug 13, 2012


GSE Bailout Change


  • Fannie’s and Freddie’s Forgettable Friday Investment whose value is dependent on unknowable government policy $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • GSEs expected to unload delinquent loans after Treasury change Portolios to shrink through prepays/writeoffs 15%/yr $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Anybody have guesses as2what $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAT $FMCCK should be worth? Pfds ~ 2 coupon pmts? Common stock ~ 0? Prob(going-away present)? $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Treasury to wind down GSEs faster, only to be replaced with (insert solution here) Future of the GSEs in question $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Treasury to Amend Terms of Fannie, Freddie Bailout Cancels 10% div, all profits go2 Tsy. Comm stocks down 20-25% $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Fannie, Freddie Pfds Sink As Treasury Amends Bailout Terms Down 52-55% today. That was the crunch you heard $$ Aug 17, 2012


Municipal Bonds


  • Bondholders, insurers challenge San Bernardino bankruptcy They allege SB finances are not in a state of emergency $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • That really stinks, can’t comment there also $$ RT @Tubulus: @munilass I think your head will slam into your desk – Aug 16, 2012
  • The Untold Story of Municipal Bond Defaults Trivial thots from researchers @ NYFed, my comment: $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Looking for Higher Yields? Try ‘Junky’ Municipal Bonds Safer than corporate junk, but less liquid. Be careful $$ Aug 13, 2012




  • Apple judge: ‘I see risk’ and 7 more newsmaker quotes Notable quotes in the business world $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • The Valley of Free Food: How One Firm Caters to California’s High Tech Giants Companies r armies; travel on stomach $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Texas Seeks Seizure of Life Partners ‘Bout time. Life settlements should b illegal; no insurable interest $LPHI $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • More trial, less error: An effort to improve scientific studies Why I am skeptical of much biometric research $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • when $AMGN ‘s scientists tried to replicate 53 prominent studies in basic cancer biology … they were able to confirm the results of only 6 Aug 16, 2012
  • Mobile pay war: Wal-Mart and others vs. Google So much innovation in payment systems; wonder which will win? $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Nassim Taleb: Stay Out of the Investment Industry Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville r @ work & still making $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Deep ocean lure grows as high-tech drilling pays off The technology for extracting oil grows ever more complex $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Buyers Beware: The Goodwill Games Check the cash from operations. Should exceed earnings if Goodwill is valid. $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • CLEAN UP THE BALANCE SHEET: GET RID OF DEFERRED TAXES Future income or losses can’t be assured, so not asset or liab $$ Aug 13, 2012



  • @BarbarianCap The firm I was with sold $AIG the day it went into the Dow. Close to a “top tick.” $HIG , did not do hearly as well 🙁 $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • @The_Dumb_Money @pkedrosky is a bright guy. Many got it right, but fads suck people in. Aug 17, 2012
  • RE: @boingboing Not too surprising. Many corporations pay low taxes b/c of govt incentives. Relationship 2 mgmt pay s… Aug 17, 2012
  • @Breakingviews The sooner the euro dissolves, the less will be the pain for all involved. It was a mistake from the start. $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • @pelias01 Many thanks for the many times you have asked people to follow me. I really appreciate it. Aug 17, 2012
  • @JimPethokoukis I’m reading it now; that’s a fair assessment. Beyond that, it reinforces how hard it is to do anything in DC $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • RT @PragCapitalist: Pushing up stock prices does not make underlying assets more profitable. The whole premise of the Bernanke Put is f … Aug 16, 2012
  • @FeeOnlyIndy I try to be fair, I don’t always succeed, and I do have my biases, so take me with a grain of salt, but thanks $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • @izakaminska Whenever I go to Boston, I always take the Water Taxi from the airport. Lets me off in Downtown –beautiful view of the city $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • @munilass Glad u said: “The Fed really ought to be embarrassed that it published something like this.” I didn’t say that & should have $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • @The_Analyst true… too much quantitative talent went to Wall Street, applied the wrong model: physics, rather than right model: ecology $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • My friend Eric Hovde sadly didn’t win the Wisconsin Republican Senate primary; Eric would’ve shaken up DC. Thompson is business as usual $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • “Proppants prop open cracks when hydraulic fracturing is done. $$” — David_Merkel Aug 14, 2012
  •  I wasn’t that impressed w/Inker’s analysis. Does not take into account dollar-weighted returns. $$ Aug 13, 2012
  • @nancefinance I was pretty nerdy, though not withdrawn, back then. My mom was a self-taught investor. I caught the bug from her. $$ Aug 13, 2012
  • When I was a teenager, I remember looking through the bond tables, noting that almost all prices were below 100. Today it is the opposite $$ Aug 13, 2012
  • @japhychron @Peter_Atwater You were more than mostly right, it’s a great book. Only wish it could have been bigger. $$ Aug 12, 2012