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Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorry I missed last week.  Thanks to those who like this.

 

Monetary Policy

 

  • Black Monday and the Greenspan put http://t.co/f9nvCtLd Initial error of Alan Greenspan. Fine-tuning monetary policy 2 remove volatility $$ Oct 20, 2012
  • Southeast Asia Seen Leading Rate Increases Next Year http://t.co/KFsz14Wj I doubt it; $$ laxity is the rule of the time; tough 2 fight Oct 19, 2012
  • Wall Street CMOs Crushed as Sales @ 3-Yr Low http://t.co/n4avsQeR Wouldn’t call a 15% drop “crushed.” Fed feeding on their collateral $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Fed-Induced Stock P/E Gains Seen Ending Soon http://t.co/FdN3zvgm Effects of QE3 s/b fully anticipated by now. $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Currency Wars: US Attack http://t.co/XbjCmjhB Axel Merk criticizes Bernanke’s claim that US monetary policy isn’t a major prob 4 emg mkts $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Yes, it is more complex, but easy developed country monetary policy does make life tough for emerging… http://t.co/qPiFz9pQ Oct 15, 2012

 

Financial Blogging

 

  • The Critic Wall Street Loves to Lunch With http://t.co/ZdomDj3R @felixsalmon one of the leaders of financial blogging gets profiled here $$ Oct 20, 2012
  • 6 blogs u should be reading http://t.co/7aohlAcp @reformedbroker @thestalwart @calculatedrisk @pragcapitalist @convertbond & Bess Levin Oct 18, 2012

 

Hoisington

 

  • Prior tweets courtesy of Van R. Hoisington & Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D. Whole thing will be posted here http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 in a few days $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Until the excessive debt issues r addressed, the multiyear trend in inflation, & thus the long Treasury bond yields will remain downward $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • “During all of the Fed actions since 2008 the velocity of money has plummeted and now stands at a five decade low” Hoisington & Hunt Oct 12, 2012
  • A jump in daily essentials has a more profound negative impact on living standards in economies with lower levels of real per capita income. Oct 12, 2012
  • How the Fed expects economic traction from higher stock prices when rising commodity prices r curtailing real income & spending is puzzling Oct 12, 2012
  • These three studies show that the impact of wealth on spending is miniscule—indeed, “nearly not observable.” Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
  • “Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and other Fed advocates believe the “wealth effect” of QE3 will bring life to the economy.” Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
  • Prior Tweet quotes Hoisington & “unintended consequence of these Federal Reserve actions, however, is to actually slow economic activity” Oct 12, 2012
  • QE3 is a tacit admission by the Fed that earlier efforts failed, but this action will also fail to bring about stronger economic growth. $$ Oct 12, 2012

 

Rest of the World

  • Devastating Photos Of India’s Illegal Coal Mines http://t.co/iiuN8bo9 Government nationalizes coal mines; mafia springs up2 mine coal $$ Oct 20, 2012
  • Why China Has The Worst Farms In The World http://t.co/zFnHnLH8 Worst in the sense of productivity per worker; they have lots of workers $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • Why Indians Are Getting Poorer http://t.co/PMyTpfEC Over past year, the Indian currency lost around 20% of its value against the US $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • China Faces Tough Choice on Growth http://t.co/i0i1n35l Does the CCP continue to favor short-term self-interest, or long-term power? $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • Zhang Weiying: China’s Anti-Keynesian Insurgent http://t.co/TGNGlo9e Fascinating tale of an Austrian economist surviving in China $$ Oct 13, 2012
  • Iran Low on Options as Hyperinflation Concerns Spark Gold Dash http://t.co/rYqDjinO Hyperinflations spawn currency substitutions: gold, $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Chavez Win Called by BofA Sparks Selloff as Barclays Flops http://t.co/DNPxpVzO Sad that Chavez won, but the bonds reflected a loss $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Cheapest Chinese Stocks Since ’97 Not Enough to Signal Rally http://t.co/rTEm2MNF Noneconomic actors compete & drive down future profit $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • The Iran Hyperinflation Fact Sheet http://t.co/bitjVaqn From my former professor @ JHU, Steve Hanke. Financial sanctions r biting in Iran $$ Oct 07, 2012

 

Financial Reform

 

  • A Simpler Way to End Too Big to Fail http://t.co/z680Sq1q Limit non-deposit liabilities; banks will scream; worthy 2b tried $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • EU, Japan Warn Against New US Swaps Rules http://t.co/9F7hTHpy Technical efficiency of mkts is less important than resiliency of mkts $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Ex-GE Bankers Convicted of Municipal Bond Bid-Rig Scheme http://t.co/fFnANPyk 4 years of jail time; restitution plus 20% would b better $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Swaps Collateral Costs May Increase Under Rules Weighed by SEC http://t.co/hbrVnyHx Raises costs some, probably the right idea $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Treasurers Worry Over Accounting for MMF Changes http://t.co/RtF6jlve Geithner tries MMF reform. Better: http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Oct 16, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Gasoline prices _ finally _ begin to slide http://t.co/zuEXNaIx Refineries finally catch up w/maintenance, outages & demand $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • First oil nears for Kazakhstan’s supergiant field http://t.co/Bzx5q6Td Kazakhstan reduces the amount of time that foreigner scan profit $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • California Asks Court to Reinstate Carbon Fuel Standard http://t.co/gLqnqTdj I am happy that I left California at age 27; unrealistic $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Gas Market Stung by Rapid Traders http://t.co/UI9DqJjI HFT and “news” trading games in the futures markets. Running stops is not new $$ Oct 16, 2012

 

Eurozone

 

  • Spanish Borrowing Costs Ease http://t.co/evRNryY7 It won’t last, but enjoy it 4 now. $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Retirement No Option for Older Workers in Europe’s Crisis http://t.co/KgjUYc01 Problem is greater in Europe because of lower fertility $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Hollande Robbed of Growth Engine as Companies Cut Investment http://t.co/ZGdrllIG Logical 2 invest less when EU & France r a mess $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • EU Wins Nobel Peace Prize http://t.co/VoTaN3ZK Nobel committee finally “jumps the shark.” The EU is unstable; a war waiting 2 happen $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Spanish Bonds Risk Forced Selling as Rating Approaches Junk http://t.co/yO8XWNl4 The Rating agencies r flawed, but on credit they r honest Oct 12, 2012
  • IMF’s Blanchard: Healing From Crisis Could Take Decades http://t.co/NXYmLjU3 Crisis won’t b healed until total debt levels normalize $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • IMF Sees ‘Alarmingly High’ Risk of Deeper Global Slump http://t.co/B7Dg9Ah9 A stopped clock is right twice/day, $ the IMF is right now $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Why a U.S. buyout firm is investing in Greece http://t.co/26oB31e9 ht: @danprimack – Companies w/global markets insensitive 2 local probs $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • Sicily, a Portrait of Italian Dysfunction http://t.co/w3dn2JFe Core Europe is to Italy as Italy is to Sicily. $$ gone & hard work starts Oct 08, 2012

 

Politics

 

  • Dem convention used corporate cash, despite pledge http://t.co/vCJuCrSa No one is truly a politician until they break a promise $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Obama Pursuing Leakers Sends Warning to Whistle-Blowers http://t.co/hZ86Cx6O Hard to believe, but Obama outdoes Bush, Jr. 4 opacity $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Romney’s Rates Seen Spurring Growth Too Little 2 Late http://t.co/fcogGy0V Nice 2c Obama & Romney competing 4 who can harm economy most $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • A123 Bankruptcy Gives Romney New Example of Green-Energy ‘Loser’ $$ $AONE http://t.co/gR2LvxRV Make green energy advocates take Physics Oct 17, 2012
  • Sorry, US Recoveries Really Aren’t Different http://t.co/5cseU4Nn Reinhart & Rogoff take on Romney’s advisors who say the US is different Oct 16, 2012
  • Romney Rolls in Rural Vote That May Provide Swing-State Margins http://t.co/D3dSdJBB Interesting perspective, but is that a big bloc? $$ Oct 16, 2012
  • Dividends: Start Screaming http://t.co/B37C7k9a This one is tough. Probability of a cooperative Congress after the elections is low $$ Oct 13, 2012
  • California Facing $5 Gasoline Stirs Brown to Relax Rules http://t.co/uQUPOz8f There is a pain point 4 everyone, just found 4 CA gas $5 $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Economic Strength / Weakness

 

  • Winners and losers as US weather patterns change http://t.co/1txs8dcg Worth a read 4 the list of winners & losers near the end $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Challenges forcing change in trucking strategy http://t.co/mHjc4udb Definitely a soggy data point; US & global economies seem 2b slowing $$ Oct 18, 2012

 

Agriculture

 

Taxpayers get hosed. Farmers doing fairly well $$ Oct 18, 2012

  • Drought brings record US cost for crop insurance subsidy http://t.co/ceUOLMUQ 2012, Taxpayers pay more, Insurers pay some, farmers benefit Oct 17, 2012
  • Milk-Cow Drought Culling Accelerates as Prices Jump http://t.co/WvHEturP Anything involved in animal husbandry is having tough time now $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Midwest Drought Claims Poultry Producer http://t.co/9K4cL3Gx Many firms involved in the meat biz r having a rough time now. $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • At this rate, growing tobacco should be prohibited. Oh, wait, we tried that with alcohol. Never mind. $$  http://t.co/hU9nI6l2 Oct 09, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Throwing Out Insiders Won’t Fix Corporate Boards http://t.co/ANKyNPiq Good boards watch over mgmt & have decent industry & company knowledge Oct 17, 2012
  • All-Time Highs, Almost There http://t.co/Aj1LR8AY Will the market hit new highs this year, in 2013, or when? $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Legg Mason’s Miller Redeemed as Housing Bull http://t.co/n3tRTmF6 2 soon 2 say. Miller doesn’t seek a “margin of safety” when investing $$ Oct 15, 2012
  • Vanguard to JPMorgan Dodging Neediest Borrowers http://t.co/PsNN8UKG This is what you tend to see 1-2 years in advance of the crash $$ Oct 14, 2012
  • As an aside, there’s kind of a rule of thumb for Bermuda insurers on buybacks: >1.3x tangible book: special dividends. <1.3x TB buybacks $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • The Buyback Epidemic http://t.co/l9SvTwZM @reformedbroker notes that buybacks make less sense, the higher valuations get. I concur $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • New Regime http://t.co/L2JaQC2J @reformedbroker notes a sea change in the markets. I’ve been heading that way; still thinking about it $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • CNBC: Jim Rogers vs. Marc Faber (FULL) 10/04/2012 http://t.co/b5sEOEZb Faber & Rogers on the same segment? What a hoot! $$ $GLD $SPY $TLT Oct 12, 2012
  • OCC Forced JPMorgan, Wells Fargo to Write Down Home-Equity Loans http://t.co/qxXjXBoS FD: + $WFC – ’bout time. Recoveries poor on HEL $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • California Leading U.S. Out of Housing Bust http://t.co/oEaOG4nf I would be wary of “dead cat” bounces here $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Bubble-Era Financing Returns as Profits Falter http://t.co/yhxBEFxq Pay-in-kind bonds return, very nice. 2 years of rally left at most $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Wrong: Bullish Sign for Stocks: Leverage Is Up http://t.co/1Qvcdkh9 What matters more is whether leverage will rise in the future $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Not New York Towers Rise With Embrace of Yield http://t.co/3MKpRdVi When vacancy rates r this high, ordinarily rents fall. Y not now? $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Other

 

  • Welcome to the ‘Desert of the Real’ — a postmodern economy http://t.co/g42NKcoa Increasing abstraction destroys economic intuition $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Why Data Will Never Replace Thinking http://t.co/Yhi5xWaR Every bit of data requires the creation of a hypothesis to give it meaning $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Global Finance Chiefs at Odds http://t.co/av5MQ01i Everyone pursuing similar policies (Loose $$ & deficits) reduces effectiveness 4 all Oct 15, 2012
  • Heidi N. Moore joins the Guardian’s US Team as Finance & Economics Editor http://t.co/In2oDnC6 Congrats @moorehn ! Will b reading u there $$ Oct 15, 2012
  • I’m not much of an #Orioles fan, but don’t you have to love a team of nobodies who can challenge the highly paid #Yankees? $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Tech Firms Become Real- Estate Trusts http://t.co/GrHU2bo5 Tech firms that own a lot of real estate take advantage of becoming REITs $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • The UN has declared today as the International Day of the Girl Child http://t.co/L0nS6wtd Sex selection abortion kills the most girls $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Please follow Cato Scholar and JHU professor that I learned a lot from: @steve_hanke Oct 10, 2012
  • Musk’s SpaceX Launches Craft for Space Station Deliveries http://t.co/Z3MH68Ud Space age begins as governments r less of a factor $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Insurance

 

  • Insurers Shed Annuity Assets http://t.co/bUZ2brqT This doesn’t feel right. other times when financial guys buy insurers, doesn’t work $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • If Only T. Boone Pickens Had Died http://t.co/tpXYGeCV Score: TB Pickens 0, Wealthy donors 0, Oklahoma State Univ. 0, Life Actuaries 1 $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Replies & Comments

 

  • @PlanMaestro 2 notes: rsv strengthing in Australia a concern, but not big. 2) Low ROE biz of the 90s is fading; life re was a loser then $$ Oct 20, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro I love $RGA . Good mgmt team. Less interest rate & stock market dependent than life insurers FD: long RGA for me and clients $$ Oct 20, 2012
  • @TheStalwart I get a few ridiculous marketing requests/day. Do all bloggers get them? I reply2them this picture $$ http://t.co/TGc2q4Er Oct 19, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap Sigh. Baltimore County is not as far gone as Baltimore City (which is also a county), but this is not wise or arms length $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • I just left a comment in “6 Wall Street blogs you should be reading – Jon Friedman’s Media Web – MarketWatch” http://t.co/qpeTAHcI Oct 18, 2012
  • @MattGGriffith Thanks. Will probably do a post in the near future expaning on that last paragraph. It struck me at the end $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • @laurenfosternyc Have you ever seen the “Gold Medal Gold Model?” http://t.co/5rPvqfEz Gold prices r a function of real interest rates $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • @CflGator these are deferred annuities so the life table plays no role. Problem is investing “too clever” inside a regulated life insurer $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • I just left a comment in “Student-loan debt is a good investment – Outside the Box – MarketWatch” http://t.co/AnaHcGKh Oct 15, 2012
  • I just left a comment in “Student-loan debt is a good investment – Outside the Box – MarketWatch” http://t.co/22AyCQ9I Oct 15, 2012
  • . @paulnovell It will be public in a few days — they e-mail it out to friends & clients b4 posting it here: http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • @wanderinggull Which? I don’t know. What was meant to produce “ever closer union” seems to be producing the opposite. Nobel = Pollyanna Oct 12, 2012
  • “Good post, Josh. You have identified many of the best. No one of us covers it all; it’s a strong list” — David_Merkel http://t.co/3Qg6WWZk Oct 10, 2012
  • @munilass Get to sleep, Babylass will need you tomorrow. :) Oct 09, 2012
  • @PavChyt @matinastevis Her *former* husband. She kept the name b/c it was good politics. She did not keep him. Oct 08, 2012
  • @PavChyt @MatinaStevis I received the name Merkel at birth. Angela got it from her 1st husband. At least people r spelling it right now $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Retweets

 

  • Yeah, & that is BV net of AOCI RT @PlanMaestro: $RGA : book value per share http://t.co/EQWDgiSL FD: long $RGA for myself & clients Oct 20, 2012
  • Jack speaks the truth, listen 2 him $$ RT @ReformedBroker: Jack Bogle: Get Out of the Casino http://t.co/gL0siD6v Oct 18, 2012
  • RT @fivethirtyeight: All polling data is massaged A LOT in an era when only 10% of people respond to surveys. So that also introduces a … Oct 17, 2012
  • RT @MuniCredit: Citi Muni Presentation: http://t.co/ONrQe9gA #muniland h/t: @bondgirl Oct 12, 2012
  • I appreciate retweets RT @LSilverspar: Not enough for the value of your posts. If you value the retweets, I will do so far more often. $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • RT @danprimack: Every time people get all worked up over a national presidential poll, I wonder if the electoral college was eliminated … Oct 08, 2012
  • True of many notable CEOs w/earnings 2 smooth RT @rcwhalen: GE’s Jack Welch Knows All About Cooking the Books http://t.co/5vJeRux6 $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • RT @Convertbond: “Markets are increasingly distorted by Central Banks, attempts to squeeze drops of growth from overindebted developed w … Oct 07, 2012
  • Shock! $$ RT @BarbarianCap: Revised Greek GDP figures show recession deeper than thought http://t.co/FCspv2gU. > data released friday night Oct 06, 2012





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David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


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