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Archive for November 2nd, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Friday, November 2nd, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Wrong: Panic Spreading Across Nations Outranks Trade http://t.co/TbYGmdlL The panic is rational. 2 much debt that cannot b paid back $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Hong Kong Taxing Homebuyers in Bubble Fight http://t.co/4xEwAl7R Would that other nations had tried this rather than encouraging debt $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • http://t.co/gj6va2hE China’s 18th Communist Party Congress convenes in Beijing on 11/8 4a once-a-decade leadership change $$ Infographic Nov 01, 2012
  • Hollande Ducks as French Industry Bleeds Jobs http://t.co/nyQ89HaH If France doesn’t change, the Eurozone eventually will fall apart $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • Italy in political chaos as election nears http://t.co/fAE84PLn Italy exists 2 flesh out dictionary definitions of corruption & instability Oct 31, 2012
  • Ortega Tops Buffett With Zara Fortune of $53.6 Billion http://t.co/2uE9xajS Tough 2 make that much $$ off retailing apparel but he did it Oct 31, 2012
  • Malaysian Gold Plans Flourish as Savers Seek Higher Yield http://t.co/4OTzlTIW When yields are too low, many bad income schemes arise $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • The EC can claim “success” in CDS regulation http://t.co/kufYPnpz @soberlook tells us how the EU solved sovereign CDS by killing it $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • WHOA: Japan Has Its Own Fiscal Cliff, And People Are Actually Talking About A Risk Of Imminent Technical Default http://t.co/b3ldTp0f $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Europe’s Crisis Spawns Calls for a Breakup—of Spain http://t.co/RvC0ctZB more here: http://t.co/h1faG4Yd Will b tough 2 stay whole $$ Oct 29, 2012

 

Insurance

 

  • Berkshire Hathaway buying Oriental Trading http://t.co/997JvhOS Buffett buys an Omaha company that sells party supplies nationally $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • MetLife’s Big Annuity Charge Linked to Regulatory Concern http://t.co/mNbA192Z Reserving 4 guarantees on variable products can b weak $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Hartford Moves to Offer Annuity Buyouts http://t.co/dGmfth2h also http://t.co/aUpA2l2X Annuity-holders: don’t accept $HIG ‘s low offers Nov 03, 2012
  • P/C Insurers Can Handle Sandy Losses; Flood Program 2 Bear Brunt http://t.co/4WqN1uq1 Watch $TWGP, maybe $CB, property-centric reinsurers $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • Insurers Won’t Get Whole Tab http://t.co/O7oFk9Wd Important 2c that much damage is not insured, & flood insurance not bot by many $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • Berkshire Extends Housing Bet With Brookfield Venture http://t.co/zquFTiB1 Buffett increases residential real estate sales presence $$ Oct 31, 2012

 

Sandy

 

  • Nomads in Queens Endure Life on the Line as They Forage4 Gas http://t.co/hzMnZnNT Many Running on Empty in Newark http://t.co/CF4LAHWu Nov 03, 2012
  • Many Affected by #Sandy Lacked Flood Coverage http://t.co/0AYx5xb2 Common in low frequency areas to not get the flood cover $$ #rolldice Nov 01, 2012
  • #Sandy Seen Lifting Insurance Prices Amid ‘New Reality’ http://t.co/13kHQUs6 Might have a small upward move in rates; shouldn’t b big $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Sandy Delivers a Digital Wallop to Eastern US http://t.co/aGbvoUKv Many datacenters have gotten soaked/fried; hope the data was backed up Nov 01, 2012
  • As far as the US equity indexes are concerned, the two day break for #Sandy had little effect on the stock markets $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • New York Subway System May Take Weeks to Recover From Storm http://t.co/thkL5qca Will be difficult to get into NYC by many means $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • US Stock Trading Shut for Second Day, Joining Bonds http://t.co/wZzh2MTg Markets likely to reopen on Wednesday, things still uncertain $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Behind Decision to Close Markets http://t.co/nhLOKRQT Contingency plans to operate exchanges remotely will be the rule in the future $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Hurricane Sandy: Losses Estimated at $45 Billion http://t.co/dUZJ3cmi Seems high, but possible. More realistic: http://t.co/DgB638Ij $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Sandy knocks out power to 82 percent of LIPA customers http://t.co/NkjJEbcU Astounding $$ Oct 30, 2012

 

Politics

 

  • The progressive case against Obama http://t.co/t8G5PsUL I may write “The Libertarian case against Romney,” b/c we really don’t know him $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Disasters Create Bigger, Not Better, Government http://t.co/W91nFEqr The challenge is 2 decide in advance what risks r borne by whom $$ Nov 01, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Mining Canada’s Oil Sands: Suddenly, Not a Sure Thing http://t.co/k77vrfOm High cost 2 produce vs tight oil from fracking in the US $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Vladimir Putin Is The New Global Shah Of Oil http://t.co/MWckLbRY Putin gains control over Russian oil & gas; how will he use that? $$ Oct 30, 2012

 

Bonds

 

  • In Fixed Income, a Fight to Survive http://t.co/cOtfWbGB Investment banking in bonds favors a market structure w/6-10 major brokers $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Low Rates Lure Yield Seekers Onto Thin Ice http://t.co/tMhYQOMr When amateurs reach 4 yield they usually don’t know the risks they take $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Pimco’s Gross Says Quantitative Easing Not Leading to Investment http://t.co/WRlaCAqi Should not b a surprise, only affects HQ rates $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Bond Sales Topping $3 Trillion Nears 2009 Record http://t.co/qkcYLj9f Corporate debt deserves its chance 2become a bubble. Will u help? $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Who Loses When Fed Keeps Interest Rates Low? http://t.co/Umt8Wx6Q Savers, Banks, Insurers (Life more), Pensions, Endowments, & Trusts $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • Bernanke’s Cash Fueling Record Corporate Rally http://t.co/gHo8IfwT Corporate credit getting tempted to overissue from low yields $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Hedge Funds Drawn to Fannie-Freddie Risk-Sharing Plan http://t.co/mQ5Muyum Creating new private mortgage securities in an unusual way $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Bargain-Addicted Investors Ignore Perils of Low Rates http://t.co/datCWeCz Argues investors & borrowers underestimate economic weakness $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Treasury Real Yields Turn Positive as Inflation Slows http://t.co/yDEc23uE I prefer the CPI and the GDP IPD 2 the PCE. #alphabetsoup $$ Oct 28, 2012
  • Cost of Bailing Out Fannie and Freddie Expected to Fall Sharply http://t.co/j4KSPeZj Looks more optimistic, so long as housing prices ^ Oct 28, 2012
  • Trusts, Bonds Lead Surge in Credit ‘Gambling’ http://t.co/TnTEmVTz Maturity & risk-based pricing only come after mkts have a failure event Oct 27, 2012
  • New Peril for Parents: Their Kids’ Student Loans http://t.co/tXaLTBNS Safer: Borrow directly & formal lend 2 yr kids $$ #dontcosign Oct 27, 2012
  • Here’s a Tip: Watch Those Pricey TIPS http://t.co/VRVNtqQC People are locking in increasingly larger losses vs the CPI, be wary $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • That said, the enhanced indexing is often a better strategy, but not everyone can do it; it would eventually distort the market $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • Is Your Bond Strategy Wrong? http://t.co/Aqa1zu3k Mkt cap weighting scales &is true idxing; other weighting schemes r enhanced idxing $$ Oct 27, 2012

 

Market Impact

 

  • Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? http://t.co/S8SbDy0r It reduces, but does not destroy; limits to arbitrage $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Predicting the Next Shock to the Global Economy http://t.co/mMJS0uBu China, Fiscal Cliff, Oil price surge, European Bank failure, Earnings Nov 03, 2012
  • Sectors And Style: Which is the better way to view the market? http://t.co/WjpyjxyC Sectors. Been my view 4a while $$ ht: IndexUniverse Nov 01, 2012
  • Rich Stuck as Salient Curbs Withdrawals for Investors http://t.co/rBEjHpxs The sting of illiquidity at its finest; hedge fund halts w/d $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • THE REAL BEAUTY OF A BALANCED FUND http://t.co/vSxtlGYf “The beauty of rebalancing is that it forces us to do what we won’t want to do” $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • David Rosenberg Brought Down The House With This Depressing Presentation At A Conference This Week http://t.co/uFs8fSAB 2 wks dated $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • “Misunderstanding Financial Crises”, a Q&A with Gary Gorton http://t.co/DPfiegyK I will b reviewing this book soon; disagree on policy $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Signal failure:Why illiquidity in one asset can spread quickly to others http://t.co/6o9mSz94 Investors sell risk assets at same time $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • SEC Weighs Bringing Back Fractions in Stock Prices http://t.co/cxwNcah7 Probably a mistake; there r better ways2 solve trading issues $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • Your Fund May Be ‘Adopted.’ So What? http://t.co/uS1ReuFJ Doesn’t affect existing holders, usually done2increase marketing 2 new holders Oct 27, 2012

 

Pensions & Endowments

 

  • Also, it is very difficult 4 avg ppl 2 invest a lump sum over a long horizon; that’s even difficult 4 professionals, unless u have lotsa $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • GM Retirees Take Lump Sum Buyout http://t.co/uyXo5KJU Usually a bad idea to take a lump sum buyout; avg ppl don’t estimate value well $$ $GM Nov 01, 2012
  • Preliminary Data Indicate Educational Endowments Earned Investment Returns Averaging -0.3% in FY2012 http://t.co/QJaU4mZI Tarnished model $$ Oct 29, 2012

 

Companies

 

  • VMware, the bell tolls for thee, and Microsoft is ringing it http://t.co/ykt7oiEa Never thought $MSFT would ever threaten a company again $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Sharp Says It Faces Material Doubt on Survival http://t.co/3fIHwx6b From Sharp minds come… never mind… tech is a cutthroat sector $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Honda starts making small jets in US, aims for ‘Civic of the Sky’ http://t.co/BkBhRaqs FD: + $HMC Unique jet may offer many advantages $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Abbott Labs $ABT Said to Ready a $10B+ Bond Deal http://t.co/4iEG0eX5 Remember bigger 1 in 2002 4 $GE Capital. I passed & it sank $$ Oct 28, 2012

 

Other

 

  • Are You Better Off Now Than You Were Four Years Ago? http://t.co/bCgRBbUU If u r reading @reformedbroker u r. Happy 4th blogoversary! $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Unsaving the U.S. economy http://t.co/vj0ujChh Low savings rate may aid GDP in the present, at the cost of lower GDP in the future $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Taming Stomachs With Fodmap Diet Spurs $8 Billion Market http://t.co/kyQlpvAA Eliminate a few sugars from diet & upset stomachs go away $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Let’s Put America’s Bankers Out of Business Now http://t.co/ypHmnJiG I.e. not finance US debt via China & Japan, OPEC, etc. $$ #tough2do Oct 29, 2012
  • Counting das gold at Fort Knox http://t.co/ZEXNCooP This would be interesting if the Germans can audit it & no Americans can $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • A Dirty Investment http://t.co/vRLzHuhd Watch composition of the financing & get skittish when debt levels get hi4 new transactions $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Great Ideas Bosses Never Hear http://t.co/lstKcyJF It’s a cultural thing. It’s easy to create a culture where new ideas r put down $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Practice Makes Perfect—And Not Just for Jocks and Musicians http://t.co/mTlvuiBs Many disciplines benefit by making basics instictive $$ Oct 28, 2012
  • Windows 8 Success Hinges on $10 Component http://t.co/Q48L45Ic Hail the high-tech hinge! Variable friction for enhanced functionality $$ Oct 27, 2012

 

Comments

  • If states declare #Sandy not 2b a “hurricane” so hurricane deductibles don’t apply, expect 2c policy forms rewritten 4 future storms $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • It would be stupid2base your vote off the Friday jobs report. A related variable is better http://t.co/aqDsu4jY Labor Force Participation $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • “Sandy has not affected your ability to write trenchant posts, Josh. Well done.” David_Merkel http://t.co/KAhHWdbT http://t.co/U0KKS3Jm $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • It’s obvious that NYC and a number of coastal areas took some pretty bad whacks. Anyplace further inland get hit that badly? $$ #Sandy Oct 30, 2012
  • Sandy having her last hurrah in Baltimore. We are on the downhill slope from here. 20% of people lost power, much less than feared. $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Trench on the uphill side of the yard is diverting water downhill and away from the house. Moderate winds & rain at present:Baltimore #Sandy Oct 29, 2012
  • If #Sandy has not turned toward the US Coast by 8AM ET, it will head out to sea. If so, will NOAA issue an apology? $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Just tossing this out, but what if #Sandy doesn’t make landfall on the US Coast? Storm tracking east of predictions. $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Men live in a dream world about women. Women live in a dream world about men. Sadly, they aren’t the same dream worlds. $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • And thus, good marriages require communication and compromise Oct 27, 2012

 

Retweets

  • Yeh, or Icahn’s son RT @valuewalk: or his son Nov 01, 2012
  • Carl only plays 4 Carl RT @srussolillo: Whitney Tilson Has ‘Mixed Feelings’ About Carl Icahn’s Netflix Stake http://t.co/r3TKOXK5 $NFLX Nov 01, 2012
  • RT @marketfolly: Tons of hedgies lately saying to avoid long-term treasuries. Makes sense, but contrarian move is obviously for them to … Oct 31, 2012
  • Y I never say IMHO RT @felixsalmon: RT @racheldodes: Observation: those who describe themselves as “humble” r usually the opposite of humble Oct 31, 2012
  • RT @cabaum1: My Bastiatian response to destruction-is-good crew: Why wait for natural diasters when we could nuke and rebuild cities all … Oct 30, 2012
  • +1 RT @Convertbond: I think we’ll see an a leak over to corporate CDS in #Europe as the sovereign short selling bad goes into effect #France Oct 30, 2012
  • RT @grossdm: Irony, and this is the last time I’ll use this pun. Biggest liquidity market to hit NY in decades causing historic illiquid … Oct 29, 2012
  • High required returns & unrealistic views of “alternatives” RT @The_Analyst: you mean illogical/delusional return assumptions, no? $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Time to celebrate! RT @PragCapitalist: Minor miracle. Server transfer completed without destroying the website. Oct 28, 2012
  • I am with you there, I tell young ppl that RT @rossbrannon: Or don’t let kids get student loans at all. It’s the worst debt there is. $$ Oct 28, 2012

 

Replies

  • @jucojames Typically, I write about Buffett in the late Winter or early Spring, b/c I get the most data then. Quarterly releases r light $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • @jucojames Excellent 2 hear from you my friend. I hope your business continues 2 prosper. When I opened my doors 4 biz, I underperformed :( Nov 03, 2012
  • @researchpuzzler The link to my article has extraneous stuff at the end does not work Nov 01, 2012
  • @BradErvin1 Not sure where you are going — this has cut across everyone, though men, young, old, & minorities more Nov 01, 2012
  • @michaellipson1 This is true, & it is one place where the average individual has an advantage over the actuarial tables; U know yr health $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • @crampell Politicians don’t like to admit that there r problems that r so big & complex that they can’t do anything about them $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • @TheStalwart It’s slower, I think. Many key internet nodes got knocked out by #Sandy. See: http://t.co/aGbvoUKv Nov 01, 2012
  • @merrillmatter @munilass What a cute kid. I don’t have any that small anymore. Kid #8 just turned 10, and she’s still cute, but they grow up Nov 01, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein How do you dig these little gems up, Eddy? Oct 31, 2012
  • @carney Disasters don’t often happen on a correlated basis; people have cognitive bias 2 think they do; also shutting barn door after cow $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @carney As a buyside insurance analyst back in 2006, everyone was saying what a bad disaster year it would be. I argued against it. $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro Challenge to govts is 2 set rates that reflect risk fairly, avoid permanent subsidy, & discourage efforts at non-compliance $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro They typically exist 4 low-frequency high-severity events & areas where insureds can’t or don’t take steps 2 avoid losses $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @Alea_ Thanks, I get it, I think. Assets r more unbounded than processes like underwriting damages. Fair? Oct 31, 2012
  • @Alea_ But isn’t EVT better than alternatives when dealing w/questions like how do we size reserves 4 events larger than we have seen b4? $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @finemrespice @carney “Most commercial policies provide flood coverage, though with some limits” http://t.co/UJPiQ8yV but homes, not $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @joshgiersch The situation in China might be competitive, given the financial repression going on there. Oct 31, 2012
  • @joshgiersch You can say that again. When governments engage in financial repression, they tempt ppl to cut corners on safety 4 income $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @JamesMarsh79 It’s not just ability, but willingness, and willingness is affected by politics as well as economics Oct 29, 2012
  • @real_taxloss Well done. That was well worth a read. Oct 29, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro I appreciate guys like you that I agree with half the time, and disagree with half the time. Makes me think. $$ Oct 28, 2012
  • @ColoradoCapital Nominally TIPS investor gets CPI – x if held to maturity. The nominal Tsy holder gets his yield [y]. Real: -x vs y-CPI $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • @munilass Is there a brief way to explain what incremental risks exist between a Puerto Rico GO & a generic state GO? Similar laws or not? Oct 27, 2012

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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