Sorted Weekly Tweets


Rest of the World


  • Wrong: Panic Spreading Across Nations Outranks Trade The panic is rational. 2 much debt that cannot b paid back $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Hong Kong Taxing Homebuyers in Bubble Fight Would that other nations had tried this rather than encouraging debt $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • China’s 18th Communist Party Congress convenes in Beijing on 11/8 4a once-a-decade leadership change $$ Infographic Nov 01, 2012
  • Hollande Ducks as French Industry Bleeds Jobs If France doesn’t change, the Eurozone eventually will fall apart $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • Italy in political chaos as election nears Italy exists 2 flesh out dictionary definitions of corruption & instability Oct 31, 2012
  • Ortega Tops Buffett With Zara Fortune of $53.6 Billion Tough 2 make that much $$ off retailing apparel but he did it Oct 31, 2012
  • Malaysian Gold Plans Flourish as Savers Seek Higher Yield When yields are too low, many bad income schemes arise $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • The EC can claim “success” in CDS regulation @soberlook tells us how the EU solved sovereign CDS by killing it $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • WHOA: Japan Has Its Own Fiscal Cliff, And People Are Actually Talking About A Risk Of Imminent Technical Default $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Europe’s Crisis Spawns Calls for a Breakup—of Spain more here: Will b tough 2 stay whole $$ Oct 29, 2012




  • Berkshire Hathaway buying Oriental Trading Buffett buys an Omaha company that sells party supplies nationally $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • MetLife’s Big Annuity Charge Linked to Regulatory Concern Reserving 4 guarantees on variable products can b weak $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Hartford Moves to Offer Annuity Buyouts also Annuity-holders: don’t accept $HIG ‘s low offers Nov 03, 2012
  • P/C Insurers Can Handle Sandy Losses; Flood Program 2 Bear Brunt Watch $TWGP, maybe $CB, property-centric reinsurers $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • Insurers Won’t Get Whole Tab Important 2c that much damage is not insured, & flood insurance not bot by many $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • Berkshire Extends Housing Bet With Brookfield Venture Buffett increases residential real estate sales presence $$ Oct 31, 2012




  • Nomads in Queens Endure Life on the Line as They Forage4 Gas Many Running on Empty in Newark Nov 03, 2012
  • Many Affected by #Sandy Lacked Flood Coverage Common in low frequency areas to not get the flood cover $$ #rolldice Nov 01, 2012
  • #Sandy Seen Lifting Insurance Prices Amid ‘New Reality’ Might have a small upward move in rates; shouldn’t b big $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Sandy Delivers a Digital Wallop to Eastern US Many datacenters have gotten soaked/fried; hope the data was backed up Nov 01, 2012
  • As far as the US equity indexes are concerned, the two day break for #Sandy had little effect on the stock markets $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • New York Subway System May Take Weeks to Recover From Storm Will be difficult to get into NYC by many means $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • US Stock Trading Shut for Second Day, Joining Bonds Markets likely to reopen on Wednesday, things still uncertain $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Behind Decision to Close Markets Contingency plans to operate exchanges remotely will be the rule in the future $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Hurricane Sandy: Losses Estimated at $45 Billion Seems high, but possible. More realistic: $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Sandy knocks out power to 82 percent of LIPA customers Astounding $$ Oct 30, 2012




  • The progressive case against Obama I may write “The Libertarian case against Romney,” b/c we really don’t know him $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Disasters Create Bigger, Not Better, Government The challenge is 2 decide in advance what risks r borne by whom $$ Nov 01, 2012




  • Mining Canada’s Oil Sands: Suddenly, Not a Sure Thing High cost 2 produce vs tight oil from fracking in the US $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Vladimir Putin Is The New Global Shah Of Oil Putin gains control over Russian oil & gas; how will he use that? $$ Oct 30, 2012




  • In Fixed Income, a Fight to Survive Investment banking in bonds favors a market structure w/6-10 major brokers $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Low Rates Lure Yield Seekers Onto Thin Ice When amateurs reach 4 yield they usually don’t know the risks they take $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Pimco’s Gross Says Quantitative Easing Not Leading to Investment Should not b a surprise, only affects HQ rates $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Bond Sales Topping $3 Trillion Nears 2009 Record Corporate debt deserves its chance 2become a bubble. Will u help? $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Who Loses When Fed Keeps Interest Rates Low? Savers, Banks, Insurers (Life more), Pensions, Endowments, & Trusts $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • Bernanke’s Cash Fueling Record Corporate Rally Corporate credit getting tempted to overissue from low yields $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Hedge Funds Drawn to Fannie-Freddie Risk-Sharing Plan Creating new private mortgage securities in an unusual way $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Bargain-Addicted Investors Ignore Perils of Low Rates Argues investors & borrowers underestimate economic weakness $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Treasury Real Yields Turn Positive as Inflation Slows I prefer the CPI and the GDP IPD 2 the PCE. #alphabetsoup $$ Oct 28, 2012
  • Cost of Bailing Out Fannie and Freddie Expected to Fall Sharply Looks more optimistic, so long as housing prices ^ Oct 28, 2012
  • Trusts, Bonds Lead Surge in Credit ‘Gambling’ Maturity & risk-based pricing only come after mkts have a failure event Oct 27, 2012
  • New Peril for Parents: Their Kids’ Student Loans Safer: Borrow directly & formal lend 2 yr kids $$ #dontcosign Oct 27, 2012
  • Here’s a Tip: Watch Those Pricey TIPS People are locking in increasingly larger losses vs the CPI, be wary $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • That said, the enhanced indexing is often a better strategy, but not everyone can do it; it would eventually distort the market $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • Is Your Bond Strategy Wrong? Mkt cap weighting scales &is true idxing; other weighting schemes r enhanced idxing $$ Oct 27, 2012


Market Impact


  • Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? It reduces, but does not destroy; limits to arbitrage $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Predicting the Next Shock to the Global Economy China, Fiscal Cliff, Oil price surge, European Bank failure, Earnings Nov 03, 2012
  • Sectors And Style: Which is the better way to view the market? Sectors. Been my view 4a while $$ ht: IndexUniverse Nov 01, 2012
  • Rich Stuck as Salient Curbs Withdrawals for Investors The sting of illiquidity at its finest; hedge fund halts w/d $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • THE REAL BEAUTY OF A BALANCED FUND “The beauty of rebalancing is that it forces us to do what we won’t want to do” $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • David Rosenberg Brought Down The House With This Depressing Presentation At A Conference This Week 2 wks dated $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • “Misunderstanding Financial Crises”, a Q&A with Gary Gorton I will b reviewing this book soon; disagree on policy $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Signal failure:Why illiquidity in one asset can spread quickly to others Investors sell risk assets at same time $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • SEC Weighs Bringing Back Fractions in Stock Prices Probably a mistake; there r better ways2 solve trading issues $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • Your Fund May Be ‘Adopted.’ So What? Doesn’t affect existing holders, usually done2increase marketing 2 new holders Oct 27, 2012


Pensions & Endowments


  • Also, it is very difficult 4 avg ppl 2 invest a lump sum over a long horizon; that’s even difficult 4 professionals, unless u have lotsa $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • GM Retirees Take Lump Sum Buyout Usually a bad idea to take a lump sum buyout; avg ppl don’t estimate value well $$ $GM Nov 01, 2012
  • Preliminary Data Indicate Educational Endowments Earned Investment Returns Averaging -0.3% in FY2012 Tarnished model $$ Oct 29, 2012




  • VMware, the bell tolls for thee, and Microsoft is ringing it Never thought $MSFT would ever threaten a company again $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • Sharp Says It Faces Material Doubt on Survival From Sharp minds come… never mind… tech is a cutthroat sector $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Honda starts making small jets in US, aims for ‘Civic of the Sky’ FD: + $HMC Unique jet may offer many advantages $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Abbott Labs $ABT Said to Ready a $10B+ Bond Deal Remember bigger 1 in 2002 4 $GE Capital. I passed & it sank $$ Oct 28, 2012




  • Are You Better Off Now Than You Were Four Years Ago? If u r reading @reformedbroker u r. Happy 4th blogoversary! $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • Unsaving the U.S. economy Low savings rate may aid GDP in the present, at the cost of lower GDP in the future $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Taming Stomachs With Fodmap Diet Spurs $8 Billion Market Eliminate a few sugars from diet & upset stomachs go away $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Let’s Put America’s Bankers Out of Business Now I.e. not finance US debt via China & Japan, OPEC, etc. $$ #tough2do Oct 29, 2012
  • Counting das gold at Fort Knox This would be interesting if the Germans can audit it & no Americans can $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • A Dirty Investment Watch composition of the financing & get skittish when debt levels get hi4 new transactions $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Great Ideas Bosses Never Hear It’s a cultural thing. It’s easy to create a culture where new ideas r put down $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Practice Makes Perfect—And Not Just for Jocks and Musicians Many disciplines benefit by making basics instictive $$ Oct 28, 2012
  • Windows 8 Success Hinges on $10 Component Hail the high-tech hinge! Variable friction for enhanced functionality $$ Oct 27, 2012



  • If states declare #Sandy not 2b a “hurricane” so hurricane deductibles don’t apply, expect 2c policy forms rewritten 4 future storms $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • It would be stupid2base your vote off the Friday jobs report. A related variable is better Labor Force Participation $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • “Sandy has not affected your ability to write trenchant posts, Josh. Well done.” David_Merkel $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • It’s obvious that NYC and a number of coastal areas took some pretty bad whacks. Anyplace further inland get hit that badly? $$ #Sandy Oct 30, 2012
  • Sandy having her last hurrah in Baltimore. We are on the downhill slope from here. 20% of people lost power, much less than feared. $$ Oct 30, 2012
  • Trench on the uphill side of the yard is diverting water downhill and away from the house. Moderate winds & rain at present:Baltimore #Sandy Oct 29, 2012
  • If #Sandy has not turned toward the US Coast by 8AM ET, it will head out to sea. If so, will NOAA issue an apology? $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Just tossing this out, but what if #Sandy doesn’t make landfall on the US Coast? Storm tracking east of predictions. $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Men live in a dream world about women. Women live in a dream world about men. Sadly, they aren’t the same dream worlds. $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • And thus, good marriages require communication and compromise Oct 27, 2012



  • Yeh, or Icahn’s son RT @valuewalk: or his son Nov 01, 2012
  • Carl only plays 4 Carl RT @srussolillo: Whitney Tilson Has ‘Mixed Feelings’ About Carl Icahn’s Netflix Stake $NFLX Nov 01, 2012
  • RT @marketfolly: Tons of hedgies lately saying to avoid long-term treasuries. Makes sense, but contrarian move is obviously for them to … Oct 31, 2012
  • Y I never say IMHO RT @felixsalmon: RT @racheldodes: Observation: those who describe themselves as “humble” r usually the opposite of humble Oct 31, 2012
  • RT @cabaum1: My Bastiatian response to destruction-is-good crew: Why wait for natural diasters when we could nuke and rebuild cities all … Oct 30, 2012
  • +1 RT @Convertbond: I think we’ll see an a leak over to corporate CDS in #Europe as the sovereign short selling bad goes into effect #France Oct 30, 2012
  • RT @grossdm: Irony, and this is the last time I’ll use this pun. Biggest liquidity market to hit NY in decades causing historic illiquid … Oct 29, 2012
  • High required returns & unrealistic views of “alternatives” RT @The_Analyst: you mean illogical/delusional return assumptions, no? $$ Oct 29, 2012
  • Time to celebrate! RT @PragCapitalist: Minor miracle. Server transfer completed without destroying the website. Oct 28, 2012
  • I am with you there, I tell young ppl that RT @rossbrannon: Or don’t let kids get student loans at all. It’s the worst debt there is. $$ Oct 28, 2012



  • @jucojames Typically, I write about Buffett in the late Winter or early Spring, b/c I get the most data then. Quarterly releases r light $$ Nov 03, 2012
  • @jucojames Excellent 2 hear from you my friend. I hope your business continues 2 prosper. When I opened my doors 4 biz, I underperformed 🙁 Nov 03, 2012
  • @researchpuzzler The link to my article has extraneous stuff at the end does not work Nov 01, 2012
  • @BradErvin1 Not sure where you are going — this has cut across everyone, though men, young, old, & minorities more Nov 01, 2012
  • @michaellipson1 This is true, & it is one place where the average individual has an advantage over the actuarial tables; U know yr health $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • @crampell Politicians don’t like to admit that there r problems that r so big & complex that they can’t do anything about them $$ Nov 01, 2012
  • @TheStalwart It’s slower, I think. Many key internet nodes got knocked out by #Sandy. See: Nov 01, 2012
  • @merrillmatter @munilass What a cute kid. I don’t have any that small anymore. Kid #8 just turned 10, and she’s still cute, but they grow up Nov 01, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein How do you dig these little gems up, Eddy? Oct 31, 2012
  • @carney Disasters don’t often happen on a correlated basis; people have cognitive bias 2 think they do; also shutting barn door after cow $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @carney As a buyside insurance analyst back in 2006, everyone was saying what a bad disaster year it would be. I argued against it. $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro Challenge to govts is 2 set rates that reflect risk fairly, avoid permanent subsidy, & discourage efforts at non-compliance $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro They typically exist 4 low-frequency high-severity events & areas where insureds can’t or don’t take steps 2 avoid losses $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @Alea_ Thanks, I get it, I think. Assets r more unbounded than processes like underwriting damages. Fair? Oct 31, 2012
  • @Alea_ But isn’t EVT better than alternatives when dealing w/questions like how do we size reserves 4 events larger than we have seen b4? $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @finemrespice @carney “Most commercial policies provide flood coverage, though with some limits” but homes, not $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @joshgiersch The situation in China might be competitive, given the financial repression going on there. Oct 31, 2012
  • @joshgiersch You can say that again. When governments engage in financial repression, they tempt ppl to cut corners on safety 4 income $$ Oct 31, 2012
  • @JamesMarsh79 It’s not just ability, but willingness, and willingness is affected by politics as well as economics Oct 29, 2012
  • @real_taxloss Well done. That was well worth a read. Oct 29, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro I appreciate guys like you that I agree with half the time, and disagree with half the time. Makes me think. $$ Oct 28, 2012
  • @ColoradoCapital Nominally TIPS investor gets CPI – x if held to maturity. The nominal Tsy holder gets his yield [y]. Real: -x vs y-CPI $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • @munilass Is there a brief way to explain what incremental risks exist between a Puerto Rico GO & a generic state GO? Similar laws or not? Oct 27, 2012