Sorted Weekly Tweets




  • California Democrats seize super majorities in both houses of Legislature CA businesses plan exit strategies $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Harsher energy regulations coming in Obama’s second term Fracking, chemical emissions, & more $$ -losing green energy Nov 08, 2012
  • US crop insurance a post-election target, farm bill elusive W/Ag doing so well over last 5 yrs, this should b ez, not Nov 08, 2012
  • Ethanol Going Ugly Turns Bush Plan Into Obama Test Should b a no-brainer, but Congress ag state politics r ugly $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Could This Be End of Evil Filibuster? Limit filibusters to actual votes & require physical presence on the floor $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Obama Win Means Health Overhaul to Move Ahead in States Destroy health care 2 replace it w/single-payer system $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Yep, There Have Been Problems With Email Voting in New Jersey In general, probability of fraud in voting is rising $$ Nov 07, 2012
  • Defense Fund Rockets to Four-Year High: Romney Rally? Discounting Obama’s change of heart after election $$ 😉 Nov 06, 2012
  • Romney Threatens Pimco’s Gross With Bernanke-Dumping Plan 2 many links in the chain of reasoning; low prob correct $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • Southfield Twp. voter appears to die, then asks ‘Did I vote?’ I found his words to his wife 2b touching in many ways $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • Tuesday Is Election Night, Be Careful What You Tweet Measure twice, cut once, tweeps. & bring a dose of skepticism $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • Three Men Make a Tiger John Mauldin predicts Romney as victor; piece is mostly about eliminating confirmation bias $$ Nov 05, 2012




  • China: Worse Than You Ever Imagined 40MM+ people were killed during the “Great Leap Forward.” Mao deserves derision $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • China’s leadership challenge in new era: douse “inequality volcano” Widespread poverty in China scares Communist Party Nov 08, 2012
  • A Cheerleader for Mao’s Cultural Revolution Lied about Cultural Revolution & The Great Leap Forward. Millions died. Nov 08, 2012
  • The Chinese Credit Bubble – Full Frontal As I have argued for some time, total debt in China is quite high $$ #danger Nov 07, 2012




  • Peltz Takes Stake in Danone Danone $DANOY is a French firm, will be difficult to encourage change $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Prudential Records $618 Million Loss on Derivatives I worry about life industry; the acctg 4 secondary gtees: yuck $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Nucor Galvanizes Gas Hopes $NUE provides capital 4 development of gas resources of $ECA -Gets 50% stake in wells $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Office Depot-OfficeMax Deal Seen Rescuing Value The failure of office retailers as the non-profit $AMZN undercuts $$ Nov 07, 2012
  • SapuraKencana Agrees 2 Buy Seadrill Tender Rigs Interesting deal, clever investor; expands Malaysia exposure $SDRL $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • Sharp blunted, and it’s not alone Argues that Japanese electronics mfg & exports r getting killed by strong yen $$ Nov 04, 2012


Federal Reserve


  • Inflation, QE and forcing the banks to lend I’ve subscribed 2 The Economist for 25 years; they r getting dumber $$ Nov 04, 2012
  • Casting Dual Roles, at Treasury & the Fed Bernanke’s Last Supper & The Return Of Larry Summers $$ Nov 04, 2012
  • Off of the last tweet, it would be nice 2c Bernanke retire; he really may b tired of the abuse. His prob was he thought he knew what 2 do $$ Nov 04, 2012
  • & as a result, could not c that Neoclassical macro does not work with an overindebted economy. We need fewer economists at the Fed & Tsy $$ Nov 04, 2012
  • Wrong: Seth Klarman Goes Nuts On The Fed In His Latest Investor Letter Y I think value investors should run the Fed $$ Nov 04, 2012
  • Seth Klarman, like most value investors, is farsighted & not just thinking about how to goose GDP for the next year. Klarman 4 Fed chair $$ Nov 04, 2012




  • Convergence between the core and the periphery economies in the Eurozone Drowning PIIGS pull Germany & France under $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • ECB & Fed: Worlds Apart Axel Merk praises the ECB & disses the Fed. Argues that ECB has not gone fiscal as the Fed has Nov 08, 2012
  • Unsteady Greek Coalition Faces More Strikes Suspect they make it through; Greeks don’t want 2 leave Eurozone yet $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • The peripheral threat to France Many of the PIIGS r getting more competitive relative 2 France. No E-zone w/o France Nov 04, 2012


Rest of the World


  • Old People Versus Babies, In One Graph Global demographic crisis in one very easy to manipulate graphic $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Iceland Sees Mortgage Bubble Threat From Foreign Cash The problems of capital controls start to bite $$ #nofreelunch Nov 06, 2012
  • Turning Trash Into Tidy Profit Optimistic story on turning trash into durable building materials in Senegal $$ Nov 05, 2012


Sandy and Disaster


  • Frederick County teen wins regional science competition The software can read a picture & tell where it is. $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Sandy’s Aftermath: Samuel Pritt Develops Geolocation Software Young friend won Siemens US Science Competition $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Insurance divides haves from have-nots after Sandy Insurance is for catastrophes; scrimp on frequency, not severity $$ Nov 04, 2012
  • Reserved Buoyancy, Down-Flooding, and Living Off the Grid The value of slack in physical systems, especially boats $$ Nov 03, 2012


Market Dynamics


  • FIRE IN THE DISCO! @reformedbroker warns us that a recession is coming, & talks about a decline in corporate profits $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Even 6.75% is too high. Looking at the Q-ratio, CAPE10, & long high quality bond yields would make 4% more realistic $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • Lightening the Pension Load Never thought I’d c terminal funding return; can b bad 4 annuitants if insurer fails $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • Fitting Factors Into the Formula Bob Arnott& Cliff Asness discuss quantitative investing; long article worth reading $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • TAGP expiration will put downward pressure on short-term yields Once guarantee goes, much S-T $$ will look 4a home $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • Cash as Trash, Cash as King, and Cash as a Weapon In different environments & hands, cash has different properties $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • Wrong: Is Your Manager Skillful…or Just Lucky? Bill Miller neglected “margin of safety” & reaped bad results $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • They didn’t read paper closely. Performance of anomalies diminished, not destroyed, by publishing academic research $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • For John Maynard Keynes, Economic Theory Was a Sideline He was a better investor than he was an economist $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • It’s the Earnings, Stupid: “Atrocious” Q3 Turns Josh Brown Cautious Time 2b cautious says @reformedbroker. Calendar? Nov 05, 2012
  • “All I know: The next bankruptcy cycle, whether in 2 or 3 or 4 years, is going to be one for the ages. Count on it.” $$ Nov 03, 2012




  • A New Idea of How to Fix the Ratings Agencies by @carney | My response: $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • Investors won’t read the fine print Even many institutional investors become overworked, lazy, etc. & don’t read $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • Hero of the day, CPDO edition I remember 2006 when @alea_ @interfluidity & I (@ Realmoney) were criticizing CPDOs $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • Health-Care Law Spurs Shift to Part-Time Workers Law of unintended consequences: How 29-hr workweek got created $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • 10 things walk-in clinics won’t tell you Major factor is the loss of continuity u have w/doctor who knows u $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • After Bailout, Giants Allowed to Dominate the Mortgage Business “Is this what we saved [the financial system] for?” $$ Nov 04, 2012



  • Can say that again RT @bespokeinvest: Wow, big selloff in the last couple minutes of trading. Dow down 430 points since Tuesday’s close. $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • Some gift RT @pdacosta: Gift that keeps on taking: France, Belgium agree to pump 5.5B euros into bailed-out Dexia Nov 08, 2012
  • RT @ReformedBroker: This Greek austerity bill is the equivalent of slapping a Kick Me sign on the Troika’s back. Gives us one day’s peac … Nov 07, 2012
  • Rupert goes back to sleep $$ RT @felixsalmon: RT @dansabbagh: Pearson says FT is not for sale. “This particular Bloomberg story is wrong. ” Nov 06, 2012
  • RT @SimoneFoxman: you’ve got to be kidding me. — Southfield Twp. voter appears to die, then asks ‘Did I vote?’ Nov 06, 2012
  • First of many 2 come RT @FrancesDenmark: Indiana is the first state to drop its pension return expectations below 7.0% Nov 06, 2012
  • Murdoch would b interested $$ RT @ReformedBroker: The Financial Slides RT @TheStalwart: Who will buy the FT? Maybe BI in a reverse merger? Nov 06, 2012
  • Bite your tongue 🙂 Janet Yellen has exceeded the Peter Principle $$ RT @fundmyfund: precious metals say = janet yellen here we come Nov 06, 2012
  • Easy 2 talk tough, hard 2 not repay $$ RT @munilass: So much for cities standing up to Calpers Nov 06, 2012
  • marriage changes u $$ RT @moorehn Surprising: single & married women are further apart politically than men & women r Nov 06, 2012
  • Probably priced in $$ RT @kyles09: isn’t the exp of TAG a negative for the big bank stocks or do you think it is already priced in? Nov 06, 2012
  • I was just looking forward to the end of the political season, sigh RT @jfahmy: Hillary Clinton listed as current 2016 favorite (6:1 odds). Nov 05, 2012
  • Dog bites man RT @TheStalwart: National Review endorses Mitt Romney Nov 05, 2012
  • Wow $$ RT @businessinsider: New York Magazine’s Breathtaking Cover Shows Manhattan From Up In The Sky by @KimBhasin Nov 03, 2012



  • @valuewalk Thanks. $DANOY might do what they can to improve margins, but might play badly in France. Has mgmt been s/h-friendly in past? $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • @Frank_McG Very cool. We homeschool — only 4 left, 1 senior, 2 freshmen & a 5th grader. My wife is having a blast. $$ Nov 08, 2012
  • @TheOneDave You’re welcome — you do some great stuff Nov 07, 2012
  • @TheOneDave Hey, Dave, don’t see where we can get the Chart… Nov 07, 2012
  • @amacker Floating NAV, hehe Nov 07, 2012
  • @TheStalwart My friend and former boss Eric Hovde would have beaten Baldwin, and handily… Nov 07, 2012
  • @kyles09 My actuarial conservatism, and knowing that God can do whatever he wants with me Nov 07, 2012
  • @carney I hear you: I’m going to write a piece where I take my “eliminate the rating agencies model” and clarify it $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • @PragCapitalist Thanks, Cullen. I applied that idea to corporate board elections when writing 4 Realmoney, Shame it didn’t get traction $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • @michaelroston Yes, but there is a lot of $$ on both sides, and the phones ring. WV & PA gambling firms & Christians vs MD gambling firms Nov 06, 2012
  • @michaelroston However, if you live in MD all u hear about is 7, the ballot measure expanding gambling. Other measures: <crickets> $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • @BradErvin1 That’s what I am saying — they r taking consensus risks $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • @BradErvin1 But my point about the balanced funds is this: in the selection he could invest in, they r all taking the same broad risks Nov 05, 2012
  • @BradErvin1 57, Married, one kid at home, significant assets good job, wife w/good health, 52, he not so healthy, has saved aggressively Nov 05, 2012
  • @FriedrichHayek I knew that Keynes got bailed out once (or was it twice?), but he learned from his losses, & was far better at the end $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • @MarketIntegrity @CFAInstitute @CFAcareers @CFAevents You might want to get different logos; it makes you look like u r RT-ing yourself $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • @japhychron Bingo. You got it. Nov 04, 2012
  • @TeamHeadwaters Forgot about that.. those are some of the best limestone deposits in the world, in an area ideal 4 potato farming, right? Nov 04, 2012
  • @nelson3748 That seems correct, but doesn’t S. Korea have the same issues w/the Chaebol, & they r functioning ok, seemingly… Nov 04, 2012
  • @munilass Thanks. I put it on my wish list. We discussed mishedging in the finance markets, Soros, &c. Nice of him 2 spend time w/little me. Nov 03, 2012
  • @munilass What’s the title of the book? I spent about ten minutes talking with him in early 2000 at a Complexity Theory conf @ Columbia U Nov 03, 2012



  • I suspect that Obama ends up winning the popular vote as well, and maybe surpasses 50%, fwiw, which isn’t much… $$ Nov 07, 2012
  • Best thing about elections: they’re over. Second best: gridlock continues. Worst: Four more years of Bush-clone Obama. $$ Nov 07, 2012
  • “Stocks aren’t GDP futures, so its not a lock that they immediately fall during the recession…” — David_Merkel Nov 08, 2012
  • Last pres election, took oldest child 2 vote. This time, took child #5 2 vote. If I live, next time will be kids 6 & 7. Time after, kid 8 $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • “Josh, the article is worth a read, but the Chronicle of Higher Education misreported on it. The…” — David_Merkel $$ Nov 06, 2012
  • “People easily forget that the stocks of commodity producers are very different than buying the…” — David_Merkel $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • Helping a client w/his 401(k). Common balanced fund risk factors chosen: Low Duration, Medium credit quality, Large Cap Blend Equities $$ Nov 05, 2012
  • The benchmark changes added jobs that were created at an unknown earlier point in time. If they were… Nov 03, 2012