The Aleph Blog » 2012 » November » 24

Archive for November 24th, 2012

Recent 13F filings

Saturday, November 24th, 2012

I make changes to my portfolio and those of my clients once a quarter, where I trade out of 2-4 of my ~35 companies, and buy a similar number of new companies.  I have detailed that in this article.

But one thing that I do differently now is where I source ideas.  There are three places:

  1. Articles I read that seem to have good ideas.  I print them out and put them in a folder.
  2. My industry studies.
  3. Scanning the 13Fs of ~75 clever investors.  That’s the new part.

I’m not going to write a lot more commentary this evening.  I’m just going to give you a results dump.  I have already gone through my results and made changes to my clients’ portfolios, save for one stock that is a little illiquid, and will take some time to acquire.

As it is, I want to share the following data with you from my trolling through the 13F filings:

Number of investors adding a new stock:

CUSIPNewTickerName
026874784

6

AIGAMERICAN INTL GROUP INC
25490A309

5

DTVDIRECTV
38259P508

5

GOOGGOOGLE INC.
50075N104

5

MDLZMondelez International, Inc.
65334H102

5

NXYNEXEN INC COMMON STOCK NPV
896945201

5

TRIPTRIPADVISOR INC
37045V100

4

GMGENERAL MTRS CO
399473107

4

GRPNGROUPON INC
46625H100

4

JPMJPMORGAN CHASE & CO
53071M880

4

LVNTALIBERTY VENTURES – SER A

 

Umm, Groupon, GM?  Interesting.

Number of investors adding to a stock position:

CUSIPIncreasedTickerName
026874784

13

AIGAMERICAN INTL GROUP INC
38259P508

12

GOOGGOOGLE INC.
191216100

12

KOCOCA COLA COMPANY
37045V100

11

GMGENERAL MTRS CO
24702R101

10

DELLDell Inc
742718109

9

PGPROCTER & GAMBLE CO/THE
172967424

9

CCITIGROUP INC
50075N104

8

MDLZMondelez International, Inc.
65248E104

8

NWSANEWS CORP
741503403

8

PCLNPRICELINE COM INC
037833100

8

AAPLAPPLE INC
896945201

7

TRIPTRIPADVISOR INC
125509109

7

CICIGNA CORP
78463V107

7

GLDSPDR GOLD TRUST
68389X105

7

ORCLOracle Corp

 

The companies most held by my group of investors:

CUSIPOwnedTickerName
38259P508

28

GOOGGOOGLE INC.
037833100

21

AAPLAPPLE INC
594918104

20

MSFTMICROSOFT CORP
68389X105

17

ORCLOracle Corp
026874784

15

AIGAMERICAN INTL GROUP INC
172967424

15

CCITIGROUP INC
478160104

15

JNJJOHNSON & JOHNSON
931142103

15

WMTWAL-MART STORES INC
084670702

14

BRK.BBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B
24702R101

13

DELLDell Inc
65248E104

13

NWSANEWS CORP
060505104

13

BACBANK OF AMERICA CORP
747525103

13

QCOMQUALCOMM INC
084670108

13

BRK.ABERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL A
191216100

12

KOCOCA COLA COMPANY
949746101

12

WFCWELLS FARGO & CO NEW

 

Number of investors decreasing a stock position:

CUSIPDecreasedTickerName
38259P508

16

GOOGGOOGLE INC.
594918104

15

MSFTMICROSOFT CORP
037833100

13

AAPLAPPLE INC
931142103

12

WMTWAL-MART STORES INC
68389X105

10

ORCLOracle Corp
17275R102

10

CSCOCISCO SYS INC COM
902973304

10

USBUS BANCORP DEL
084670702

9

BRK.BBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B
060505104

9

BACBANK OF AMERICA CORP
57636Q104

9

MAMastercard Inc – Class A
65248E104

8

NWSANEWS CORP
949746101

8

WFCWELLS FARGO & CO NEW
254687106

8

DISDISNEY WALT CO
717081103

8

PFEPFIZER INC
92826C839

8

VVisa Inc-Class A Shares
931422109

8

WAGWALGREEN CO

 

Number of investors selling a stock entirely:

CUSIPSoldTickerName
25490A101

6

DTVDIRECTV-CLASS A
594918104

4

MSFTMICROSOFT CORP
931422109

4

WAGWALGREEN CO
87612E106

4

TGTTARGET CORP
032346108

4

AMLNAMYLIN PHARMACEUTICALS INC
037833100

3

AAPLAPPLE INC
060505104

3

BACBANK OF AMERICA CORP
57636Q104

3

MAMastercard Inc – Class A
65248E104

3

NWSANEWS CORP
871503108

3

SYMCSYMANTEC CORP
172967424

3

CCITIGROUP INC
78463V107

3

GLDSPDR GOLD TRUST
032511107

3

APCANADARKO PETROLEUM CORP
53217V109

3

LIFELIFE TECHNOLOGIES CORP.
855030102

3

SPLSStaples Inc
053332102

3

AZOAUTOZONE INC
086516101

3

BBYBest Buy Company Inc
64110L106

3

NFLXNETFLIX INC
844741108

3

LUVSouthwest Airlines Co
256677105

3

DGDOLLAR GEN CORP NEW
91324P102

3

UNHUnitedhealth Group Inc
30161N101

3

EXCExelon Corp
778296103

3

ROSTROSS STORES INC
690742101

3

OCOWENS CORNING NEW
46120E602

3

ISRGINTUITIVE SURGICAL INC
726505100

3

PXPPlains Exploration
88023U101

3

TPXTEMPUR PEDIC INTL INC
382388106

3

GRGOODRICH CORP
532791100

3

LNCRLINCARE HOLDINGS INC.

 

As a percentage of market cap, new positions added:

CUSIPNewTickerName
G5784H106

NA

MANUMANCHESTER UTD PLC NEW
64107N206

27.49%

UEPSNet 1 UEPS Technologies Inc
06652K103

27.20%

BKUBANKUNITED INC
86663B102

26.98%

SNBCSun Bancorp Inc
147154207

25.80%

CACBCascade Bancorp
584404107

25.36%

MEGMEDIA GEN INC
09064Y307

23.66%

BIOFBioFuel Energy Corp.
269279402

14.54%

XCOEXCO RESOURCES
912318201

12.88%

UNGUNITED STATES NATL GAS FUND
121220107

12.21%

BKWBURGER KING WORLDWIDE INC
29788A104

10.06%

EOPNE2open, Inc.
G0585R106

10.03%

AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.
25490A309

9.48%

DTVDIRECTV
44047T109

8.94%

HZNPHORIZON PHARMA INC
92343E102

8.74%

VRSNVeriSign Inc.
57686G105

8.58%

MATXMatson Inc
896945201

7.58%

TRIPTRIPADVISOR INC
39530A104

7.53%

GRHGreenhunter Energy Inc-Restric

 

Increases in positions as a percentage of market cap:

CUSIPIncreasedTickerName
G5784H106

361.97%

MANUMANCHESTER UTD PLC NEW
64107N206

27.49%

UEPSNet 1 UEPS Technologies Inc
06652K103

27.20%

BKUBANKUNITED INC
86663B102

26.98%

SNBCSun Bancorp Inc
147154207

25.80%

CACBCascade Bancorp
584404107

25.36%

MEGMEDIA GEN INC
09064Y307

24.24%

BIOFBioFuel Energy Corp.
912318201

15.09%

UNGUNITED STATES NATL GAS FUND
269279402

14.54%

XCOEXCO RESOURCES
121220107

12.21%

BKWBURGER KING WORLDWIDE INC
53635B107

11.90%

LQDTLiquidity Services, Inc.
29788A104

10.06%

EOPNE2open, Inc.
G0585R106

10.03%

AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.
25490A309

9.48%

DTVDIRECTV
896945201

9.21%

TRIPTRIPADVISOR INC
779376102

9.21%

ROVIROVI CORP
44047T109

8.94%

HZNPHORIZON PHARMA INC
92343E102

8.74%

VRSNVeriSign Inc.
57686G105

8.58%

MATXMatson Inc
760975102

7.60%

RIMMRESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
39530A104

7.53%

GRHGreenhunter Energy Inc-Restric
07556Q105

7.41%

BZHBeazer Homes USA Inc
194014106

7.06%

CFXColfax Corporation

 

Decreases in positions as a percentage of market cap:

CUSIPDecreasedTickerName
147154207

-28.97%

CACBCascade Bancorp
98417P105

-27.68%

XINXINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD
624756102

-27.02%

MLIMUELLER INDS INC
06652K103

-26.06%

BKUBANKUNITED INC
64107N206

-24.77%

UEPSNet 1 UEPS Technologies Inc
86663B102

-21.46%

SNBCSun Bancorp Inc
83545G102

-18.35%

SAHSONIC AUTOMOTIVE INC CL A
09064Y109

-15.81%

BIOFBIOFUEL ENERGY CORP
014481105

-15.75%

ALEXAlexander & Baldwin Inc
269279402

-13.78%

XCOEXCO RESOURCES
007865108

-11.85%

AROAeropostale Inc
205862402

-11.69%

CMVTCOMVERSE TECHNOLOGY INC
G0585R106

-10.38%

AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.
499183804

-10.21%

KNOLKNOLOGY INC
25490A101

-9.29%

DTVDIRECTV-CLASS A
74165N105

-8.79%

PRMWPRIMO WTR CORP
760276105

-8.36%

RJETREPUBLIC AWYS HLDGS INC
359360104

-8.22%

FFEXFROZEN FOOD EXPRESS INDS INC
440441400

-8.16%

HRZCAHORIZON TELCOM – CLASS A
647581107

-8.06%

EDUNEW ORIENTAL ED & TECH GRP I
939640108

-7.94%

WPOWashington Post
960908309

-7.67%

WPRTWESTPORT INNOVATIONS INC
871206405

-7.48%

SCMRSYCAMORE NETWORKS INC
863236105

-7.44%

STRASTRAYER ED INC
918866104

-7.31%

VCIVALASSIS COMMUNICATIONS INC
532791100

-7.07%

LNCRLINCARE HOLDINGS INC.

 

Largest amount of stocks sold out in entire:

CUSIPSoldTickerName
147154207

-28.97%

CACBCascade Bancorp
98417P105

-27.68%

XINXINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD
624756102

-27.02%

MLIMUELLER INDS INC
06652K103

-26.06%

BKUBANKUNITED INC
64107N206

-24.77%

UEPSNet 1 UEPS Technologies Inc
86663B102

-21.46%

SNBCSun Bancorp Inc
09064Y109

-15.81%

BIOFBIOFUEL ENERGY CORP
014481105

-15.75%

ALEXAlexander & Baldwin Inc
269279402

-13.78%

XCOEXCO RESOURCES
007865108

-11.85%

AROAeropostale Inc
205862402

-11.69%

CMVTCOMVERSE TECHNOLOGY INC
G0585R106

-10.38%

AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.
499183804

-10.21%

KNOLKNOLOGY INC
25490A101

-9.29%

DTVDIRECTV-CLASS A
74165N105

-8.79%

PRMWPRIMO WTR CORP
760276105

-8.36%

RJETREPUBLIC AWYS HLDGS INC
440441400

-8.16%

HRZCAHORIZON TELCOM – CLASS A
939640108

-7.94%

WPOWashington Post
871206405

-7.48%

SCMRSYCAMORE NETWORKS INC
647581107

-7.47%

EDUNEW ORIENTAL ED & TECH GRP I
863236105

-7.44%

STRASTRAYER ED INC
918866104

-7.31%

VCIVALASSIS COMMUNICATIONS INC
532791100

-7.07%

LNCRLINCARE HOLDINGS INC.

 

Finally, a list of the largest companies held by my investors where there is still net buying going on:

G5784H106

NA

MANUMANCHESTER UTD PLC NEW
313549404

94.11%

FDMLFEDERAL MOGUL CORP
451100101

92.72%

IEPICAHN ENTERPRISES LP
25388BAD6

51.94%

DRIVDIGITAL RIV INC
09064Y307

40.95%

BIOFBioFuel Energy Corp.
63934E108

33.61%

NAVNavistar International Corp
708160106

31.98%

JCPPENNEY J C INC
254423106

31.23%

DINDINEEQUITY INC
584404107

29.86%

MEGMEDIA GEN INC
64107N206

27.49%

UEPSNet 1 UEPS Technologies Inc
06652K103

27.20%

BKUBANKUNITED INC
86663B102

26.98%

SNBCSun Bancorp Inc
76117W109

24.37%

RFPResolute Forest Products Inc
92552V100

23.72%

VSATVIASAT INC
896945201

23.44%

TRIPTRIPADVISOR INC
L00849106

23.41%

AGROADECOAGRO SA
549463AH0

22.73%

ALULUCENT TECHNOLOGIES INC
405217100

21.86%

HAINHAIN CELESTIAL GROUP INC
165167107

20.76%

CHKCHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP
615369105

20.32%

MCOMoody’s
912318201

20.06%

UNGUNITED STATES NATL GAS FUND
812139301

19.92%

ZZSEALY CORP
874054109

18.64%

TTWOTAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWAR
205363104

18.40%

CSCCOMPUTER SCIENCES CORP
92927K102

17.65%

WBCWABCO HOLDINGS INC
459028106

17.54%

INTLINTL FCStone Inc
92343E102

17.33%

VRSNVeriSign Inc.
42983D104

17.30%

ONEHIGHER ONE HLDGS INC
N7902X106

17.11%

STSENSATA TECHNOLOGIES HLDG BV
913837100

16.53%

USAPUNIVERSAL STAINLESS & ALLOY
194014106

15.31%

CFXColfax Corporation
N93540107

15.30%

VPRTVISTAPRINT N V
760975102

14.96%

RIMMRESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
269279402

14.84%

XCOEXCO RESOURCES
806037107

14.56%

SCSCScansource Inc
79377W108

14.37%

SKSSaks Incorporated
M25082104

14.06%

CKSWClickSoftware Ltd.
151290889

13.89%

CXCEMEX SAB-SPONS ADR PART CER
45166R204

13.86%

IDIXIDENIX PHARMACEUTICALS INC
H84989104

13.58%

TELTE CONNECTIVITY LTD
064058100

13.57%

BKBANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP
88033G100

13.46%

THCTENET HEALTHCARE CORP
53635B107

12.86%

LQDTLiquidity Services, Inc.
779376102

12.63%

ROVIROVI CORP
121220107

12.21%

BKWBURGER KING WORLDWIDE INC
345838106

12.16%

FRXForest Labs
79546E104

12.09%

SBHSALLY BEAUTY HLDGS INC
00724F101

11.91%

ADBEADOBE SYSTEMS INC
65248E104

11.82%

NWSANEWS CORP
421933102

11.64%

HMAHEALTH MGMT ASSOC INC NEW
24702R101

11.59%

DELLDell Inc
31428X106

11.54%

FDXFEDEX CORP
62944T105

11.29%

NVRNVR INC
741503403

11.13%

PCLNPRICELINE COM INC
512815101

10.95%

LAMRLAMAR ADVERTISING CO
84264A102

10.87%

SSESouthern Connecticut Bancorp
037604105

10.57%

APOLApollo Group Inc Cl A
90341W108

10.51%

LCCUS Airways Group Inc
150870103

10.28%

CECELANESE CORP-SERIES A
66988K102

10.24%

NCQNOVACOPPER INC
191216100

10.21%

KOCOCA COLA COMPANY
20854P109

10.09%

CNXCONSOL ENERGY INC
14040H105

10.08%

COFCAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP
29788A104

10.06%

EOPNE2open, Inc.
12504L109

10.02%

CBGCBRE GROUP INC
489170100

9.97%

KMTKennametal Inc.
871503108

9.90%

SYMCSYMANTEC CORP
G02602103

9.71%

DOXAMDOCS LTD COMMON STOCK GBP.00
30226D106

9.59%

EXTREXTREME NETWORKS INC
25490A309

9.48%

DTVDIRECTV
G27823106

9.16%

DLPHDelphi Automotive PLC
774341101

9.09%

COLRockwell Collins Inc.
880779103

9.08%

TEXTEREX CORP NEW
984332106

9.01%

YHOOYAHOO! INC
44047T109

8.94%

HZNPHORIZON PHARMA INC
45031U101

8.88%

SFIISTAR FINL INC
447011107

8.68%

HUNHUNTSMAN CORP
66987E206

8.58%

NGNOVAGOLD RES INC
57686G105

8.58%

MATXMatson Inc
003881307

8.54%

ACTGACACIA RESH CORP
887317303

8.36%

TWXTIME WARNER INC
53219L109

8.33%

LPNTLIFEPOINT HOSPITALS INC
808513105

8.28%

SCHWSCHWAB CHARLES CORP NEW
751212101

8.16%

RLRALPH LAUREN CORP
812139400

8.15%

ZZSealy Corp
370023103

7.92%

GGPGENERAL GROWTH PPTYS INC NEW
171779309

7.86%

CIENCiena Corp.
73172K104

7.73%

PLCMPolycom Inc
774415103

7.72%

ROCROCKWOOD HLDGS INC
07556Q105

7.69%

BZHBeazer Homes USA Inc
31620M106

7.65%

FISFidelity National Information
39530A104

7.53%

GRHGreenhunter Energy Inc-Restric
103304101

7.42%

BYDBOYD GAMING CORP
257559203

7.42%

UFSDOMTAR CORP
20451N101

7.41%

CMPCompass Minerals
125581801

7.36%

CITCIT GROUP INC.
45666Q102

7.27%

INFAINFORMATICA CORP
G3157S106

7.26%

ESVENSCO PLC
251893103

7.23%

DVDeVry Inc.
256677105

7.14%

DGDOLLAR GEN CORP NEW
Y2573F102

7.09%

FLEXFLEXTRONICS INTL LTD
439734104

6.98%

HFBCHopFed Bancorp Inc.
20564W105

6.97%

SCORCOMSCORE INC
302130109

6.96%

EXPDExpeditors Int’l Wash Inc
95082P105

6.95%

WCCWESCO INTL INC (this can’t be right)
125509109

6.93%

CICIGNA CORP
192446102

6.86%

CTSHCOGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIO
588056101

6.75%

MERCMercer International Inc.
232820100

6.69%

CYTCYTEC INDUSTRIES INC
591708102

6.68%

PCSMETROPCS COMMUNICATIONS INC
90384S303

6.50%

ULTAULTA SALON COSMETCS & FRAG I
868536103

6.46%

SVUSUPERVALU INC
413160102

6.44%

HLITHARMONIC INC
204018105

6.39%

CPBCCommunity Partners Bancorp
382550101

6.24%

GTGOODYEAR TIRE &
265504100

6.18%

DNKNDUNKIN BRANDS GROUP INC
432589109

6.12%

HSHHillshire Brands Co
918194101

6.08%

WOOFVCA Antech Inc
024061103

5.90%

AXLAmerican Axle & Mfg Hldgs
233326107

5.86%

DSTD S T SYSTEMS INC
58501N101

5.84%

MDVNMEDIVATION INC
867892101

5.75%

SHOSUNSTONE HOTEL INVS INC N
143130102

5.72%

KMXCARMAX INC
073302101

5.42%

BEAVBE Aerospace, Inc.
026874784

5.34%

AIGAMERICAN INTL GROUP INC
863667101

5.30%

SYKStryker Corp
05615F102

5.30%

BWCBABCOCK & WILCOX CO NEW

 

That’s all for now.  Comments are welcomed below.

 

Full disclosure: long ORCL, WFC, SPLS, ESV, TEL

Bombing Baby BDC Bonds

Saturday, November 24th, 2012

After reading Jason Zweig’s good piece, “Should You Bottle Up Your Money in ‘Baby Bonds’?” I said to myself, “But what does the prospectus look like?”  So I went to EDGAR, and pulled up the prospectus for Fifth Street Finance Corp’s 5.875% Senior Notes due 2024.

Please understand — I get squeamish with the unsecured bonds of exotic financial companies.  Losses on the bonds of financial companies when they fail tend to be far worse than those of industrials or utilities.  That is a major reason why financial bonds typically yield more than similarly rated non-financial bonds.  They are more risky.

So, looking through the deal summary terms, we learn:

  • At $75 million, the deal is small.
  • It’s a 12-year deal — that’s done to confuse buyers, because it gets priced off the 10-year Treasury, giving the illusion of more spread.
  • Quarterly pay of interest which raises the effective yield a touch.
  • Senior subordinated, but…
  • effectively subordinated to all our existing and future secured indebtedness (including indebtedness that is initially unsecured to which we subsequently grant security), to the extent of the value of the assets securing such indebtedness, including without limitation, the $206.3 million of borrowings under our credit facilities outstanding as of October 10, 2012; and
  • structurally subordinated to all existing and future indebtedness and other obligations of any of our subsidiaries, including without limitation, the indebtedness of Fifth Street Funding, LLC, Fifth Street Funding II, LLC and our SBIC subsidiaries.
  • The bonds are callable at par after 5 years.

The structural protections here are weak.  You are lending to a financial holding company where many of the assets are pledged to other creditors.  More on that in a moment.

The risk factors for a business development company like Fifth Street are significant, and can be found here, all eighteen-plus pages of them.  But the risk factors of the debt are more significant, and can be found here.  Here are the main headings:

  • The Notes will be unsecured and therefore will be effectively subordinated to any secured indebtedness we have currently incurred or may incur in the future.
  • The Notes will be structurally subordinated to the indebtedness and other liabilities of our subsidiaries.
  • The indenture under which the Notes will be issued will contain limited protection for holders of the Notes.
  • There is no existing trading market for the Notes and, even if the NYSE approves the listing of the Notes, an active trading market for the Notes may not develop, which could limit your ability to sell the Notes or the market price of the Notes. 
  • If we default on our obligations to pay our other indebtedness, we may not be able to make payments on the Notes.

Unsecured holding company debt can be weak, because with some subsidiaries there may be regulatory limits or private limits to upstreaming capital to the holding companies.  That puts financial holding companies in a weak position, because when financial conditions get bad liquidity can get very tight.

And with business development companies [BDCs], which own and finance small-to-medium sized businesses, there is a lot of idiosyncratic risk including:

  • Your downside is 100%, but your upside is capped.
  • BDCs tend to be speculative investors.
  • Many of the assets held are subject to third-party security interests, which lessens the rights of unsecured lenders to the holding company.
  • BDCs, life REITs, have to pay out 90%+ of taxable income in order not to face corporate taxation.  That forces BDCs to continually go to the credit markets for financing.  But what if the market is no longer favorable for a year or two?
  • BDCs are placid weather vehicles, and more so the bonds.  One might be better off holding 30% Treasuries and 70% BDC stock.  At least you have more downside protection, and more upside.

So put me in the camp of those that have no interest in BDC debt.  It is a weak instrument, and regardless of what the rating agencies say, they are not investment grade risks.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Saturday, November 24th, 2012

Politics & Policy

 

  • Was the Budget Deficit Worth the Fight? http://t.co/jDn9r7DC Budget deficits are an assault on the quality of our money & savings $$ @carney Nov 24, 2012
  • None Dare Call It Default http://t.co/4o0lnQoe A nicer term for what’s about to sock the middle class is ‘entitlement reform.’ $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Judge Pens New Bankruptcy Chapter http://t.co/6V5cUQjS US BK Court Judge Thomas Bennett takes on the Jefferson County, AL Ch 9 filing $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Banks reportedly lining up against Elizabeth Warren committee spot http://t.co/YRAId5TQ & http://t.co/LFXTCZEb I say give her a chance $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Globalism goes backward http://t.co/h6kt67Lz As global growth slows, so does its handmaiden, globalization. $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • 2013 Looks a Lot Like 1937 in 4 Fearsome Ways http://t.co/iZjmM1ZA Pre-election spree, post-reduce deficit, class war, prior laws bite $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • FHA running out of money http://t.co/L1M7lRIK “We take the findings of the independent actuary very seriously…” loss reserves too low $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Pension cuts could boost state’s Social Security costs http://t.co/61jicHRM If benefits drop below certain level, have 2 pay SS/Med taxes $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Special Dividends Surge Fourfold as US Tax Increase Looms http://t.co/vPVaLNFU Last chance 2 reward shareholders w/low div tax rates $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • http://t.co/LJnienxh San Bernardino: How California law, police/firemen, CALPERS, dysfunctional politics, & bad pension acctg rules killed Nov 19, 2012

 

Monetary Policy

 

  • Soros Buying Gold as Record Prices Seen on Stimulus http://t.co/pJ5FTplo Gold prices react2cost of carry; neg in real terms now $$ #zoom Nov 24, 2012
  • Paula Broadwell’s Radar Tracks Generals, Not Fed http://t.co/WglEhJFo Bernanke’s/Yellen’s ideas will crumble from stagflation $$ @cabaum Nov 24, 2012
  • Abe threatens to turn BOJ into an unlimited piggy bank for the government http://t.co/LxWwmlyP Eventually the real economy will rebel $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • It’s a Good Bet the Fed Doesn’t Know What It’s Doing http://t.co/zG6mepy0 Couldn’t pick a worse Fed 4 crisis: imagines it knows what 2 do $$ Nov 19, 2012

 

Hewlett-Packard

 

  • Hurdling H-P: Oracle Shows Way in M&A http://t.co/fiJvmT2N Point is $ORCL ‘s older deals have been productive, $HPQ ‘s not. $$ FD:+$ORCL Nov 23, 2012
  • H-P’s Deal Process Bypassed CFO Pre-Whitman http://t.co/WfawtYfh Note that Cathie Lesjak opposed the Autonomy purchase. Smart lady $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Goodwill Hunting http://t.co/ghFrEDlY @epicureandealmaker takes down a generally cruddy Bloomberg article on $HPQ & Goodwill accounting $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Note to all writing about Hewlett Packard: the ticker is $HPQ, not $HP, which is Helmerich & Payne, which drills oil and gas wells $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Ironic in many ways. HP should have been happy with their engineer-driven pre-Fiorina culture. It did a lot… http://t.co/rqXEW5Bi Nov 20, 2012

 

Loose Monetary Policy Harms Fringe Nations

 

  • Debt Burden Adds to Won Gains in Crimping Korea Rebound http://t.co/y6uHfFEw Loose monetary policy creates debt bubble in S. Korea $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • S&P: Australia is Spain in waiting http://t.co/usllSlBt Heavily indebted financial systems can be like the snowpack prior 2 an avalanche $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Prison of Debt Paralyzes West http://t.co/ofJXWyLu Government debt after a point does not stimulate, but perpetuates unproductive policy $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Purple Palace Abandoned Shows China Shadow-Banking Risk http://t.co/tmg6jPhy China is like Japan 23 years ago: fearsome & malinvested $$ Nov 20, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Egypt Presidential Decree Sparks Protests http://t.co/a5YUcvtN Anyone surprised that the Muslim Brotherhood came out on top? State Dept Nov 23, 2012
  • Can Xi Jinping bring about the change China needs? http://t.co/i3XGKZBJ Long article on the new Chinese leader; very tough road to travel $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Pipeline Would Loosen Russian Stranglehold On European Natural Gas Supply http://t.co/3zPUInTZ Where there is a will there is a way $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Misconstruing Germany Will Prove to Be Death of the Euro http://t.co/nCJ7rLiZ Germany won’t want a banking union; their banks have issues Nov 20, 2012
  • http://t.co/MSqwtq4u China unlikely to make shift to consumption, b/c it means granting freedom to the people & reducing party cronyism $$ Nov 20, 2012

 

Personal Finance

 

  • After Sandy damage, insurance adjusters may bring more bad news http://t.co/GTAhE9x3 If odds of getting flooded > 1% get flood insurance $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Tax Moves to Make Now http://t.co/TmoaGOCC Balanced piece; worth a read. Assumes we don’t go over the fiscal cliff: a deal is struck $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Lenders Rev Their Engines http://t.co/5jz3pt3l Surge in Demand for Auto Loans Spurs Push Into Sector; Subprime Is a Big Draw $$ Nov 23, 2012
  • For ‘Credit Invisibles,’ A Market Takes Shape http://t.co/4l849dmK A blast from the past; using payment histories 2 establish credit $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • apparent mojo http://t.co/lDNmxD1s @researchpuzzler does homework, comes to correct conclusion on a tiny junk fund featured in the WSJ $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Draining Away! http://t.co/hQAqzE9M Universal life policies suffer from low interest rates. B sure 2 check the gteed minimum rate $$ Nov 19, 2012

 

Miscellaneous

 

  • The Great Thanksgiving Hoax http://t.co/kwbE39ee Strangers were the lazy ones; like the Hutterites the Saints could have made socialism work Nov 21, 2012
  • Archbishop Says Church Lost Credibility on Women Bishops http://t.co/n7XkjfDM The “laity” understands the Bible better than the priests $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Why One Poll Says 45% Would Rather Skip Christmas http://t.co/zwwqY00R Costs a lot; nativity means much to Christians, Christmas is made-up Nov 20, 2012
  • Windows 8 killed my PC http://t.co/slcTSRVA No operating system should expect 2b equally good touch vs keyboard, tablet vs laptop, etc $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Kill the Password: Y a String of Characters Can’t Protect Us Anymore http://t.co/jPoLzKpK Long but worth it; multifactor ID is the future $$ Nov 20, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Kyle Bass gives it to us with both barrels http://t.co/yZLt36kW Very long. Worth it if you want to see what he is up to in investing. $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Mismeasurement of Pensions Before and After Retirement http://t.co/DwE869Js The full paper, & you don’t have to pay NBER a cent $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • In a Slow Market, Wait for Compelling Values Says Johnson http://t.co/lf891lb5 Expects 5%-ish returns 2013; unusual 2 get small returns $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Tech Sets Correction Course http://t.co/ct7yaWcb Largest sector of the market is feeling soggy, which does not bode well 4 the rest $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Why Mutual Fund Guardians Are Failing http://t.co/UMvk4AAB Old/good article on the flaws of mutual fund governance; skewed incentives $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Investment Falls Off a Cliff http://t.co/GVqnEdLH US Companies Cut Spending Plans Amid Fiscal and Economic Uncertainty; unstable policy Nov 19, 2012
  • Buy on the rumor, sell on the news $$ RT @BloombergNews: S&P 500 rises most in two months amid budget deal optimism | http://t.co/yyR2uiSi Nov 19, 2012

 

Other Companies

 

  • I know the basics on a lot of companies but is the first time I have heard of Schiff Nutrition International $SHF http://t.co/jxHIdf1v $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Hostess Judge Sees Return to ‘Liquidation Scenario’ http://t.co/OeDI3sTX Twinkies will survive, but many who produce them will not $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Hostess Seen Attracting Bids for Assets From Flowers http://t.co/vAu1o7Wv The brands will get bought; the value is there, not in plants $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Drillers Begin Reusing ‘Frack Water’ http://t.co/nOiR3sy5 Energy Firms Explore Recycling Options 4 Industry That Uses Water Like Chicago Nov 19, 2012

 

Wrong

 

  • Bad Headline: Wall St Kept Winning on Mortgages Upending Homeowners http://t.co/fuKDx4ss Most tricky mtges not originated by Wall St $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Wrong: S&P 500 in Cheapest Bull Market Since Ronald Reagan http://t.co/jNJ1x0SU When will they learn *not* 2 use P/E 4 mkt valiuation? $$ Nov 19, 2012

 

Replies

 

  • @PlanMaestro Thanks — missed that. Nov 23, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro I just can’t believe the 1.5 Billion figure for the Earth’s carrying capacity; even the Club of Rome is more optimistic, no? Nov 23, 2012
  • “How many lines can be drawn in a 2D plane such that they are equidistant from 3 non-collinear points?” 3… http://t.co/QQkn7IcR Nov 23, 2012
  • Grantham is outside of his skill set here, and should be ignored. Also, global population will top out at… http://t.co/ZACbqPQO Nov 23, 2012
  • Nothing against Bill McBride. He deserves praise from all of us. There are three missing pieces though, and… http://t.co/Dfs50uGQ Nov 21, 2012
  • . @Dvolatility H-P CDS Curve Flattens on Write-Down http://t.co/9vWEDzcZ Early buyers of $HPQ protection made decent money, late less $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • @Dvolatility $HPQ CDS spreads did forecast the spread widening, but not the magnitude. It also forecast the stock price move also $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • @japhychron @TFMkts @dvandeventer @Dvolatility Or, does the negative tangible book have an impact on modeling? $HPQ $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • “You can count beans and trace them back to their sources, good. But can you adequately question the…” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/JS3Jbtnb Nov 21, 2012
  • @dvandeventer @Dvolatility Any read on the level 5Y CDS is trading at? Used to have a BBG terminal, but don’t now… Nov 21, 2012
  • @Dvolatility Where does the $HPQ CDS trade now? Nov 21, 2012
  • @qusmablog Much of the world has to go through a “failure cycle” before “normal growth” can reboot. Many entrenched interests don’t want it. Nov 21, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense @researchpuzzler Also not good for the WSJ 2 write about a small fund w/short track record… bigger problem $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense @researchpuzzler Apologies, Chou Income did beat the Barclays Agg since inception http://t.co/VwYvIVYj Carry does it $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • @CEOofmyFUTURE longer term measures like the Q-ratio, CAPE10, Price to resources, & Hussman has a measure also Nov 19, 2012
  • @BloombergNews Who’s in charge of this page: http://t.co/2sJ5NEDK They changed it last week and made it less useful $$ Nov 19, 2012

 

Retweets

 

  • Notable & Honorable $$ RT @Nati2de: Larry Hagman was married to the same woman since 1954. Impressive, especially for a Hollywood actor. Nov 24, 2012
  • Growth comes when capital, labor & resources have fair prices RT @BloombergView: Greece needs growth, not austerity | http://t.co/f620QBRU Nov 21, 2012
  • RT @retheauditors: #1 cause of accounting fraud is revenue recognition issues and #1 industry for accounting fraud is technology/softwar … Nov 20, 2012
  • Gracias, no se habla $$ RT @besanson: #FunAndFinance Interest Rate Swaps and LIBOR in 5 minutes // Thanks or RT http://t.co/zu2LP7Nx Nov 20, 2012
  • Torture data until it confesses something $$ RT @Alea_: Does “Statistical Significance” Imply “Actually Significant”? http://t.co/BBTfUThF Nov 20, 2012
  • RT @finemrespice: The Federal Housing Administration stands against all prior biological evidence that primates are capable of forming m … Nov 19, 2012
  • Buy on the rumor, sell on the news $$ RT @BloombergNews: S&P 500 rises most in two months amid budget deal optimism | http://t.co/yyR2uiSi Nov 19, 2012

 

Blog News

 

  • My week on twitter: 75 retweets received, 4 new listings, 50 new followers, 92 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Nov 22, 2012

 

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

 Subscribe in a reader

 Subscribe in a reader (comments)

Subscribe to RSS Feed

Enter your Email


Preview | Powered by FeedBlitz

Seeking Alpha Certified

Top markets blogs award

The Aleph Blog

Top markets blogs

InstantBull.com: Bull, Boards & Blogs

Blog Directory - Blogged

IStockAnalyst

Benzinga.com supporter

All Economists Contributor

Business Finance Blogs
OnToplist is optimized by SEO
Add blog to our blog directory.

Page optimized by WP Minify WordPress Plugin