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Archive for January 26th, 2013

On Insurance Investing, Part 3

Saturday, January 26th, 2013

Subtitle: The Value of Momentum and Mean-Reversion

In the extreme short-run, mean-reversion dominates.  Over a year, momentum dominates.  Over a four year period mean-reversion returns.

The same applies to insurance stocks.  This is perhaps more true of insurance stocks, because the accounting is so opaque.  When accounting is opaque, it takes a longer period of time for market prices to catch up with the underlying reality.

I do not trust momentum naively.  I compare it to fundamentals and ask if it has more room to run or fall.  Remember, insurance is a mature industry… there are few sustainable competitive advantages here.  Near turning points, valuations are stretched or in the dumps.

That said, here is my table of momentum for the insurance industry:

companytickerimg_desc

mktcap

prchg_52w
Radian Group Inc.RDN0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               882.0

155%

Homeowners Choice, Inc.HCI0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               241.1

146%

Stewart Information Services CSTC0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               528.1

100%

Imperial Holdings, Inc.IFT0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)                 89.7

86%

Kingsway Financial Services InKFS0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                 54.0

68%

Atlantic American CorporationAAME0709 – Insurance (Life)                 69.7

63%

eHealth, Inc.EHTH0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)               506.9

59%

Investors Title CompanyITIC0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               135.2

59%

First American Financial CorpFAF0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           2,522.8

58%

Coventry Health Care, Inc.CVH0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)           6,239.6

57%

Hilltop Holdings Inc.HTH0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               753.0

55%

CNO Financial Group IncCNO0709 – Insurance (Life)           2,315.5

52%

Allstate Corporation, TheALL0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)         21,154.9

51%

Symetra Financial CorporationSYA0709 – Insurance (Life)           1,629.6

50%

American International Group,AIG0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)         54,180.4

46%

Sun Life Financial Inc. (USA)SLF0709 – Insurance (Life)         17,505.2

46%

Platinum Underwriters HoldingsPTP0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           1,595.2

43%

Hartford Financial Services GrHIG0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)         10,829.2

41%

Lincoln National CorporationLNC0709 – Insurance (Life)           8,005.7

41%

Amtrust Financial Services, InAFSI0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           2,232.4

40%

HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc.HCC0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           3,989.2

39%

Fidelity National Financial InFNF0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           5,669.5

38%

Horace Mann Educators CorporatHMN0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               847.4

38%

Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd.MRH0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           1,341.4

37%

Seabright Holdings IncSBX0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               249.3

37%

Verisk Analytics, Inc.VRSK0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)           9,172.3

37%

AEGON N.V. (ADR)AEG0709 – Insurance (Life)         13,026.1

36%

Fortegra Financial CorpFRF0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)               179.3

35%

XL Group plcXL0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           8,353.8

35%

Primerica, Inc.PRI0709 – Insurance (Life)           1,877.3

34%

Allied World Assurance Co HoldAWH0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           2,946.7

34%

Travelers Companies, Inc., TheTRV0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)         29,569.3

33%

Everest Re Group LtdRE0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           5,944.0

33%

Prudential Public Limited CompPUK0709 – Insurance (Life)         38,254.3

33%

CIGNA CorporationCI0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)         16,718.9

33%

United Insurance Holdings CorpUIHC0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                 91.9

32%

Partnerre LtdPRE0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           5,236.2

32%

Cincinnati Financial CorporatiCINF0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           6,959.7

29%

Protective Life Corp.PL0709 – Insurance (Life)           2,500.8

29%

Argo Group International HoldiAGII0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               926.7

29%

Hallmark Financial Services, IHALL0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               171.6

26%

Aspen Insurance Holdings LimitAHL0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           2,380.3

26%

Alterra Capital Holdings LtdALTE0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           2,911.1

25%

Torchmark CorporationTMK0709 – Insurance (Life)           5,314.2

24%

Alleghany CorporationY0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           6,048.5

24%

Eastern Insurance Holdings IncEIHI0709 – Insurance (Life)               135.2

24%

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.BRK.A0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)      242,512.2

23%

Manulife Financial CorporationMFC0709 – Insurance (Life)         26,899.6

23%

Arch Capital Group Ltd.ACGL0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           6,188.5

22%

Enstar Group Ltd.ESGR0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           2,006.2

22%

Axis Capital Holdings LimitedAXS0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           4,664.5

22%

Genworth Financial  IncGNW0709 – Insurance (Life)           4,647.8

21%

Aon PLCAON0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)         18,361.6

21%

American Equity Investment LifAEL0709 – Insurance (Life)               862.9

20%

White Mountains Insurance GrouWTM0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           3,585.0

20%

ACE LimitedACE0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)         28,999.2

20%

Markel CorporationMKL0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           4,581.2

19%

United Fire Group, Inc.UFCS0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               595.0

19%

Employers Holdings, Inc.EIG0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               658.7

18%

W.R. Berkley CorporationWRB0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           5,643.1

18%

Amerisafe, Inc.AMSF0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               517.4

18%

National Interstate CorporatioNATL0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               592.7

18%

Old Republic International CorORI0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           2,906.0

17%

Kansas City Life Insurance CoKCLI0709 – Insurance (Life)               418.7

17%

Brown & Brown, Inc.BRO0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)           3,901.8

17%

Aetna Inc.AET0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)         16,644.7

17%

Crawford & CompanyCRD.B0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)               305.5

16%

Universal Insurance Holdings,UVE0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               182.4

16%

Chubb Corporation, TheCB0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)         21,220.1

15%

National Western Life InsurancNWLI0709 – Insurance (Life)               593.0

15%

American Financial GroupAFG0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           3,862.0

15%

Loews CorporationL0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)         17,109.9

15%

Endurance Specialty Holdings LENH0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           1,839.7

14%

China Life Insurance Company LLFC0709 – Insurance (Life)         91,295.3

14%

State Auto FinancialSTFC0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               602.7

14%

Principal Financial Group IncPFG0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)           9,036.6

13%

EMC Insurance Group Inc.EMCI0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               324.6

13%

Maiden Holdings, Ltd.MHLD0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               758.2

13%

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.RNR0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           3,982.5

13%

Validus Holdings, Ltd.VR0709 – Insurance (Life)           3,340.1

12%

Selective Insurance GroupSIGI0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           1,106.6

12%

UnitedHealth Group Inc.UNH0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)         57,244.5

11%

Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.,THG0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           1,821.7

11%

Cna Financial CorpCNA0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           8,351.3

11%

ProAssurance CorporationPRA0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           2,752.6

11%

Assured Guaranty Ltd.AGO0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           3,264.4

11%

Marsh & McLennan Companies, InMMC0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)         19,053.5

10%

Safety Insurance Group, Inc.SAFT0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               728.8

10%

Unico American CorporationUNAM0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                 68.2

10%

Progressive Corporation, ThePGR0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)         13,682.1

10%

Independence Holding CompanyIHC0709 – Insurance (Life)               167.3

10%

AFLAC IncorporatedAFL0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)         25,077.1

10%

Navigators Group, Inc, TheNAVG0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               751.0

10%

Metlife IncMET0709 – Insurance (Life)         41,077.8

9%

Kemper CorpKMPR0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           1,874.3

8%

ING Groep N.V. (ADR)ING0709 – Insurance (Life)         37,707.5

7%

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.AJG0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)           4,502.5

7%

American National Insurance CoANAT0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           2,070.2

7%

Prudential Financial IncPRU0709 – Insurance (Life)         27,417.8

6%

StanCorp Financial Group, Inc.SFG0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)           1,776.7

4%

Global Indemnity plcGBLI0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               535.1

4%

WellPoint, Inc.WLP0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)         20,092.9

3%

FBL Financial GroupFFG0709 – Insurance (Life)               902.6

2%

Unum GroupUNM0709 – Insurance (Life)           6,407.6

2%

Infinity Property and CasualtyIPCC0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               684.9

2%

Baldwin & Lyons, Inc.BWINB0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               340.7

1%

Molina Healthcare, Inc.MOH0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)           1,357.9

-2%

Reinsurance Group of America IRGA0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)           4,098.1

-2%

Assurant, Inc.AIZ0709 – Insurance (Life)           3,039.7

-3%

RLI Corp.RLI0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           1,439.5

-6%

Erie Indemnity CompanyERIE0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           3,283.2

-7%

Citizens, Inc.CIA0709 – Insurance (Life)               459.8

-8%

American Safety Insurance HoldASI0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               196.8

-8%

Tower Group IncTWGP0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               740.9

-10%

Willis Group Holdings PLCWSH0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)           6,032.0

-10%

Mercury General CorporationMCY0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           2,183.3

-11%

OneBeacon Insurance Group, LtdOB0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           1,308.7

-12%

Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd.GLRE0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               835.9

-12%

Donegal Group Inc.DGICA0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               371.4

-12%

Universal American CorporationUAM0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)               801.3

-13%

Humana Inc.HUM0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)         11,855.7

-14%

CNinsure Inc. (ADR)CISG0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)               330.1

-17%

Health Net, Inc.HNT0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)           2,204.9

-24%

MGIC Investment Corp.MTG0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               581.9

-26%

MBIA Inc.MBI0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)           1,631.2

-30%

Meadowbrook Insurance Group, IMIG0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)               318.1

-36%

Phoenix Companies, Inc., ThePNX0709 – Insurance (Life)               156.1

-36%

Life Partners Holdings, Inc.LPHI0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)                 50.3

-40%

I note that the basement contains a lot of funky companies with issues.  The penthouse contains a lot of credit-sensitive companies that have rallied off of the strong equity market, and moderately strong housing market.

I do not have much trust in the momentum now, because many are trusting in the rosy scenario where losses have been normalized.  I do not think that is the case, and think that there will be additional losses from credit risk coming soon.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Saturday, January 26th, 2013

Rest of the World

 

  • Cyprus’s now-certain default http://t.co/H7TO0rQy Cyprus is not substantial to the EU, but it does raise issues as to precedence $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • Jobs At Al Jazeera http://t.co/HzukJDoL Hiring in the USA! Join the Wahabist Ministry of Propaganda; certainly more talented than most! $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Mali Exposes Flaws in West’s Security Plans http://t.co/yixTdjVP Lack of proper gear, or American assistance, hinder Mali efforts $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Manpower Sees French Labor-Deal Boon Matching Skills to Jobs http://t.co/OdD7JaGG $MAN helps sclerotic French labor find flexibility $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Peso Beating Rupee Threatens Call Center Growth http://t.co/EkiG1wBU Phillipines will continue w/loose $$; everyone being forced2 loose $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Cairo Slum-Dwellers Despair of Mursi on Uprising Anniversary http://t.co/5TlSMPkA What did u expect? Muslim Brotherhood best organized $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Chavez Ally’s Once-in-Century Debt Exposes Neglect http://t.co/qpZqu0rQ Dumb2lend @ 5% 4 10yrs 2a nation has expropriated 15 companies $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Merkel hints at European deal for Cameron http://t.co/2ugJjTzA Ever-closer union gives way 2Europe a la carte $$ UK has better deal w/US? $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Yahoo, Dell Swell Netherlands’ $13 Trillion Tax Haven http://t.co/d78DxoHN Corporations scour the globe 4 tax advantages. Wouldn’t you? $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Spain’s Lost Generation Spends Salad Days Toiling in UK http://t.co/dBMcRGGw High bad debts & unemployment, yes Mario the worst is past $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Suicide of Minister Turns Focus on Crash Taking Toll in Ireland http://t.co/8uXbcdNK The more severe the recession, the more suicides $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Draghi Says ‘Darkest Clouds’ Over Europe Have Subsided http://t.co/hUqda4z7 Tell that2 Slovenia! http://t.co/TJDdbTyT $$ #debtdeflation Jan 24, 2013
  • Spanish Bank Bad Loans: still tending upward http://t.co/LERSIed3 Calling Mario Draghi! Another fire to douse w/your unlimited liquidity $$ Jan 24, 2013

 

China

 

  • Feeding the Dragon: Why China’s Credit System Looks Vulnerable http://t.co/9aFA9Ivk GMO analyzes the mess that is credit in China $$ #danger Jan 25, 2013
  • China Overheating Risk Resurfaces, Ex-PBOC Adviser Says http://t.co/DcjkkslU Total debt levels comparable to dev nations prior 2 crisis $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • China’s Potential growth may slow later in decade- Older population shrinks its labor force http://t.co/Sr6zsqa8 China demographic articles Jan 24, 2013
  • In China, Widening Discontent Among Communist Party Faithful http://t.co/626NiBMR Small cracks emerge in Party loyalty #interestingtimes $$ Jan 21, 2013
  • EU remains a big external challenge to China’s economy http://t.co/YvV52N5n 5-yr plan 2 dom consumption will fail: based on transfer pmts $$ Jan 21, 2013
  • “Gehnen said most crucial for a lasting strengthening of China’s domestic demand…further development of basic systems of social security” Jan 21, 2013

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • “Don’t work on financial crises, don’t work on contagion,” they said, according to Forbes. “There’re not going to be anymore crises.” $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • The last tweet reflected the views of Kristin Forbes’ tenure advisors 10+ years ago http://t.co/X7MhwG9b Economists were complacent $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • The Temptation of Risk http://t.co/BLjgGwye Buying any risk asset @ this juncture feels like succumbing 2 the peer pressure of the market $$ Jan 25, 2013
  • “The fundamental law is we can’t raise debt faster than income from now on,” Dalio said. http://t.co/rTAJfFhf Dalio Sees ‘Game Changer’ $$ Jan 25, 2013
  • “The worst investment decisions have generally been made when dumb money is chasing yield.” Edward Chancellor and Mike Monnelly at GMO $$ Jan 25, 2013
  • Investors See a Way Forward: Buybacks http://t.co/Q8JQHwgs Organic growth is best, but companies w/cheap stock should buyback shares $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Visual History Of The S&P 500 http://t.co/17rWiDpw 20th birthday for $SPY — Watch how the top 10 companies have varied over last 33 yrs $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Egan-Jones Faces 18-Month Ban on Sovereign, Asset-Backed Ratings http://t.co/FzPbV2zo Should have stuck w/their expertise in corporates $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Calpers Buy-Hold Rule Recoups $95B Recession Loss http://t.co/R7Hc02Hm Still short $87B, only 74% funded, asks CA & struggling cities 4 $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Investors Get a ‘Perpetual’ Headache http://t.co/IM5Y94IM It is usually dumb to give away your principal 4a fixed rate w/no upside $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Wrong: Money Magic: Bonds Act Like Stocks http://t.co/RNGh92EV This is little different than buying the equity of CDOs & diversifying $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • More on having technical analysis taught in financial classes in academic circles @reformedbroker @ppearlman http://t.co/WCxBcfDo $$ Jan 21, 2013
  • We must fix the broken Western state model http://t.co/L6jxLYQm Liabs, deficits & policy uncertainty lead2 economic gridlock as DC wastes $$ Jan 21, 2013

 

Companies

 

  • It Pays to Own an Energy Pipeline. Thanks, Tax Code http://t.co/2UCSALOo Almost all are set up as MLPs, which pass income to partners $$ Jan 25, 2013
  • Financial Crisis Suit Suggests Bad Behavior @ Morgan Stanley http://t.co/OkML3jhh The buyers did not do due diligence, & were yield hogs $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Explosive Charge: Morgan Stanley Peddled Security Its Own Employee Called ‘Nuclear Holocaust’ http://t.co/QTelsPmK Untold story: yield hogs Jan 24, 2013
  • Microsoft Risks Strain to PC Partnerships With Dell Investment http://t.co/5t0Eok5k All of $MSFT ‘s relationship’s r strained somewhat $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Firms Keep Stockpiles of ‘Foreign’ Cash in US http://t.co/r2MAumPL You want they should keep it elsewhere? At least it is safe here $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • #SYMC offers capital allocation program, plans to initiate company’s first cash dividend http://t.co/51H0zECN FD: + $SYMC 2.5% div, nice $$ Jan 23, 2013
  • Western Digital Hits 15-Yr Peak on Talk of Buyout http://t.co/GRk0JucB FD: + $WDC | $WDC more cyclical than $DELL, harder 2take private $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Loan start-up Prosper raises $20 million, led by Sequoia http://t.co/SJLnKHGa Peer-2-peer lending comes of age, Prosper attracts $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Microsoft in Talks to Help Finance Dell Buyout http://t.co/xpbAntVf Odd, indicates that $MSFT has more $$ than they know what to do with Jan 22, 2013
  • Schools Hit by Morality of Wal-Mart Guns Funding Charity http://t.co/8KgGKSQe $WMT makes <1% of its profits from guns; >1% from tobacco $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Inside H-P’s Missed Chance to Avoid a Disastrous Deal http://t.co/tqJ6xsEx Could have walked away after firing Apotheker for ~$100M $$ Jan 22, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Senate Changes Rule on Filibusters, Keeps Supermajority http://t.co/fHOlwYmw Modest good changes made, but the filibuster stands as is $$ Jan 25, 2013
  • Facebook Friends Fronting Debt Collectors Draw US Regulation http://t.co/wZkVpdTu Debt collection harassment goes social, for now $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Fast-changing social media makes advisers scramble http://t.co/wlZ4Py1P Note to RIAs w/LinkedIn: u may need 2turn off recommendations $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Who Can Outgrow or Recover From Autism http://t.co/D3H2MrPO Autism is an overused word. Some males take longer to develop $$ Jan 22, 2013

 

Benefits now, Payment with Interest Later

 

  • Backs to the Future http://t.co/RuftcKsF by @agnestcrane | But as interest rates rise, asset values should fall; the gap should remain $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Big Ben’s Big Bite Out of Corporate Pensions http://t.co/2Ez3PkUJ QE-infinity raises the costs of defined benefit pensions & other liabs $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • The RomneyCare Bill Comes Due http://t.co/eQ2wAqdn Coming soon to a nation (US) near you: pay more for health care or get less of it $$ Jan 24, 2013

 

Comments & Retweets

  • “I’ve always been skeptical of Bremmer & Roubini — too promotional.” — David_Merkel http://t.co/FtmDU3Th $$ Also too bearish on the US. Jan 25, 2013
  • @JackHBarnes @finemrespice I would be surprised if a bunch of Hungarians have better insight than most. Jan 26, 2013
  • @finemrespice @The_Analyst I am proud to know the both of you virtually. To all my followers, please follow. #FF Jan 26, 2013
  • @finemrespice Many apologies, I get what u r going for. Clever. Jan 26, 2013
  • ‘ @finemrespice Personally, I would like 2b more perverse — they have 2 invest their wealth in companies which they have refused 2 favor $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • @jckhewitt as you will note from my last tweet, the economics profession believed in the early 2000s that we had banished financial crises Jan 26, 2013
  • An example of an ETF that buys companies that buy back stock on net $$ $TTFS RT @jvnash1: @AlephBlog $ttfs float shrink Jan 24, 2013
  • Another good example of shrinking shares outstanding $$ RT @dwk24: @AlephBlog $COH Jan 24, 2013
  • RT @DavidBCollum: @AlephBlog Indeed. They also forget the highly complex systems improve by evolution, not human fiat. FOMC suffers “Fat … Jan 24, 2013
  • @BarbarianCap I agree, though I think developed nations should try to co-ordinate tax policy, & suggest 2 tax havens NATO has other uses ;) Jan 24, 2013
  • ‘ @DavidBCollum I think the Fed forgets that every liability is someone else’s asset, but that every asset isn’t someone else’s liability $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • @Skrisiloff You’re welcome, Scott. Keep up the good work! Jan 24, 2013
  • @flounder_MA @smartfootball It’s a valuation question. Price below 1.3x tangible book, buy back stock. Otherwise, special dividends $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • @JMucken @DanSWright I think that’s the only utility I let auto-tweet; nice utility that sums up what I did publicly on Twitter wed-to-wed Jan 24, 2013

·  @djoalpha11 This Dan Dorfman http://t.co/XlQQXj49 ? Or another one, because the famous one is dead… Jan 22, 2013

  • @GaelicTorus @danielckoontz They serve different needs. Main point: Use your specialized knowledge 2 choose ins 2 best serve yr likely needs Jan 21, 2013
  • @danielckoontz But no, I don’t have anything in the archives on LTC, except don’t buy the stock of those whose liabilities r a hi % LTC Jan 21, 2013
  • @GaelicTorus @danielckoontz LTC is for people of in-between health; likely to live but not be so healthy, eases the unpleasantness of aging Jan 21, 2013
  • @danielckoontz also look & compare all of the terms & conditions & compare different specimen policies. Get quotes from a wide # of writers Jan 21, 2013
  • @danielckoontz LTC is useful for someone who thinks they will need lots of care, but is likely to live a long time. Best bought when younger Jan 21, 2013
  • RT @ToddSullivan: RT @Convertbond: RT “@finansakrobat: Milton Friedman (via Morgan Stanley): “nothing is so permanent as a temporary go … Jan 21, 2013
  • “Difficulty: few people, even professionals, are good enough to go against the grain when the masses are panicking” http://t.co/MXrg8o06 $$ Jan 20, 2013

 

FWIW

 

  • My week on twitter: 40 retweets received, 6 new listings, 81 new followers, 58 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 24, 2013

 

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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