Month: March 2013

A Few Notes from the Berkshire Hathaway 10K

A Few Notes from the Berkshire Hathaway 10K

Letting the document speak, here are a few notes, starting with with the most significant part of the risk factors:

Investments are unusually concentrated and fair values are subject to loss in value.

We concentrate a high percentage of our investments in equity securities in a low number of companies and diversify our investment portfolios far less than is conventional in the insurance industry. A significant decline in the fair values of our larger investments may produce a material decline in our consolidated shareholders? equity and our consolidated book value per share. Under certain circumstances, significant declines in the fair values of these investments may require the recognition of other than-temporary impairment losses.

A large percentage of our investments are held in our insurance companies and a decrease in the fair values of our investments could produce a large decline in statutory surplus. Our large statutory surplus serves as a competitive advantage, and a material decline could have a material adverse affect our ability to write new insurance business thus affecting our future underwriting profitability.

Buffett does very well, but I know of no other insurer that invests so much in equities funded by insurance liabilities.? There is a real risk that if the markets fall hard, a la 1929-32, 1973-4, 2007-8. that BRK would be hard-pressed, particularly if there were some significant disaster like Katrina or Sandy, or set of disasters like 2004 or 2011.

And a note on the accounting change that Buffett mentioned in his letter, but did not decide to describe:

Underwriting expenses incurred in 2012 increased $586 million (21.1%) compared with 2011. The increase was primarily the result of a change in U.S. GAAP concerning deferred policy acquisition costs (?DPAC?). DPAC represents the underwriting costs that are eligible to be capitalized and expensed as premiums are earned over the policy period. Upon adoption of the new accounting standard as of January 1, 2012, GEICO ceased deferring a large portion of its advertising costs. The new accounting standard was adopted on a prospective basis and as a result, DPAC recorded as of December 31, 2011 was amortized to expense over the remainder of the related policy periods in 2012. Policy acquisition costs related to policies written and renewed after December 31, 2011 are being deferred at lower levels than in the past. The new accounting standard for DPAC does not impact the cash basis periodic underwriting costs or our assessment of GEICO?s underwriting performance. However, the new accounting standard accelerates the timing of when certain underwriting costs are recognized in earnings. We estimate that GEICO?s underwriting expenses in 2012 would have been about $410 million less had we computed DPAC under the prior accounting standard and that, as a result, GEICO?s expense ratio (the ratio of underwriting expenses to premiums earned) in 2012 would have been less than in 2011.

The point is that BRK’s underwriting result would have been very good without the accounting change.? The accounting change was a good thing, though.? Companies trying to inflate profits look for every marketing expense that they can deem an “investment.”? All of those costs would be spread over the life of the policies, rather expensed in the current year.? The new accounting standard limits what costs can be expensed to those that are truly marginal to the business produced.

Final note: They lost money on annuity reinsurance and retro at Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group [Pp 34-36].? Retro sprang from new claims.? On annuities:

The annuity business generated underwriting losses of $178 million in 2012, $118 million in 2011 and $114 million in 2010. Annuity underwriting losses reflect the periodic discount accretion of the discounted liabilities established for such contracts as well as adjustments for mortality experience.

I am not sure I would want to reinsure annuities; I’m not sure that it is possible to insure long term investment guarantees, no matter how truncated.

Full disclosure: long BRK/B

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Berkshire Hathaway

 

  • $BRK.B The preferred has 2 other features that materially increase its value: at some point it will b redeemed @ a significant premium price Mar 01, 2013
  • …the preferred also comes with warrants permitting us to buy 5% of the holding company?s common stock for a nominal sum $$ FD: + $BRK.B Mar 01, 2013
  • Buffett to Update His Acquisition Hunt http://t.co/OHzvc2xQBW Buffett has more than enough $$ to buy what he wants; free cash flow is huge Mar 01, 2013
  • We Want Your Questions for Warren Buffett http://t.co/7GiMfdYbst Mail in your questions for Warren Buffett & do it here. I wil do so. $$ Mar 01, 2013

Full Disclosure: long BRK/B

 

Monetary Policy

 

  • Federal Reserve: What Happens When It Runs Out of Ammo? http://t.co/F2jHPEROU3 What happens when they need2tighten & reaction is violent $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Fed Could Slow Bond Selloff http://t.co/HifHyKx4Su And so they dream, not realizing tightening cycles r proportionate to loosening cycles $$ Mar 01, 2013
  • Bernanke Says U.S. Must End ?Too Big to Fail? Bank Subsidy http://t.co/ScBqYKo3oG Easy2do: keep raising deposit ins prems till banks balk $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Kuroda?s Inflation Failure Seen in Long Bond Rally http://t.co/EuDTpe0kPd Most nations of the world r trying voodoo economics, Japan most $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Bernanke?s Stimulus Spurring US Employment in Housing http://t.co/GYhrkyWGI8 I would be more optimistic if new sectors were prospering $$ Feb 25, 2013
  • Trade protectionism looms next as central banks exhaust QE http://t.co/M5jJDSbxrD Weakening your currency can give a temporary advantage $$ Feb 25, 2013

 

US Economy

 

  • Dr Copper and his funny friends dont agree with SP500 – Divergence ! http://t.co/TpmemT4Ai6 Real economy not doing as well as S&P 500 $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • US Restaurant Index and US Consumer Confidence http://t.co/4Bc83xsrbU Restaurants r sensitive indicators of consumer behavior: weak now $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • US Incomes Fall, Spending Rises http://t.co/ldYgPDETEc What do you expect when you add back the payroll tax? $WMT takes a hit also $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Obama Orders Cuts That Will Be ?Slow Grind? on Economy http://t.co/lgzqxK8iWw Next stop, 3/27 when the spending authorization expires $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Obama Makes Cuts Personal in Strategy to Bend Congress http://t.co/AqjKaD865f May try to mismanage sequester to embarrass Republicans $$ Mar 03, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Reforms Stall in Athens as Troika Considers Next Aid Tranche for Greece http://t.co/P0n3aSAe9u Still don’t c how Greece avoids leaving EZone Mar 03, 2013
  • Ivory Coast?s Women Reject Equality in Household Debate http://t.co/1AuTdZTb9r Equality means men don’t have to support their households $$ Mar 01, 2013
  • Japanese Revival Seen in Honda?s First Plant in 49 Years http://t.co/oKo5aBuxhA $HMC new factory comes just as weak yen boosts prospects $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Wrong: Berlusconi?s Surge Shows Why Europe Needs a Deeper Union http://t.co/f3dQLVA6zB Rather, it shows why the Eurozone should fold $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • India May Curb Widest BRIC Budget Gap for Rate-Cut Room http://t.co/kqhBm895gt BRIC should not b a group; problems r very dissimilar $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Asia s Huge Debt Growth Problem: Remember 1997? http://t.co/dZ3nAnFyXe Bank lending/GDP in Asia exceeding levels at 1997 crisis $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • $20 Phone Stars at Mobile World Congress http://t.co/mbKdgSMwso And it can go 35 days without charging; $NOK – hero of developing world $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Ruchir Sharma: China Has Its Own Debt Bomb http://t.co/DaoTuJGO17 China is so bad off that no one would want to be in their position. $$ Feb 26, 2013
  • China?s premature overheating http://t.co/2YBgqsA365 Need to free the economy, end force-feeding of credit to glutted sectors & cronies $$ Feb 26, 2013
  • Canadian Economy Tumble http://t.co/sDbAj0uajE Compilation of articles showing the slowing Canadian consumer, & its effect on the economy $$ Feb 25, 2013
  • Has Spain?s Economic Contraction Become Self Perpetuating? http://t.co/XOSFgBL6yb Population shrinkage from migration kills entitlements $$ Feb 24, 2013
  • Pettis: Countries w/higher external debt levels r constrained in their ability2wage currency war w/countries w/lower external debt levels $$ Feb 24, 2013

 

Financial Sector & Pensions

 

  • Two Scenarios for Future of ‘Big Finance’ http://t.co/DdQwk7Jyj6 Finance still needs 2 shrink, the economy needs total debt 2b < 2x GDP $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Druckenmiller Sees Storm Worse Than ?08 as Seniors Steal http://t.co/A0eSwqZYab It is very bad, but I don’t get the $211T number, too big $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • McGraw Fighting U.S. Justice Recalls AmEx Battle to Save Company http://t.co/R6likSWxrk He fights valiantly against those who r evil $$ Mar 01, 2013
  • Rule Split to Put U.S. Banks at a Loss http://t.co/BUAORxUyjt This is overstated; the real cash flow happens through statutory accounting $$ Mar 01, 2013
  • Gatsby, Galbraith and the Myth of Coolidge?s Crash http://t.co/prutRWBzHS The Crash caused by debt over-accumulation, like current crisis $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Payday Loans Get US Consumer Bureau Scrutiny as ?Debt Traps? http://t.co/cfYHHUPsX7 This is one area where I would favor fiduciary stds $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Providence, R.I. claims firm missed $10 mln in pension costs http://t.co/GgHm2FAIIT Suing the actuarial firm for liability miscalculation $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Wells Fargo Credit Profile Hurt by Heinz Deal, Moody?s Says http://t.co/ND3APjqqfk | FD: long $WFC I think the $HNZ loan is well-proected $$ Feb 26, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Imagining a Post-Bundle World for Cable TV http://t.co/U86Jducpeg Popular shows/networks would do better, less popular would suffer $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Assembly-Line Pizza Draws Hungry Fast-Casual Investors http://t.co/cozthTImDm Pizza to order will be available at reasonable prices $$ Mar 01, 2013
  • Too Much OIL http://t.co/PLBMRD24Vw Provides one useful tailwind for the US economy $$ Feb 26, 2013
  • Joel Kotkin: America’s Red State Growth Corridors http://t.co/ydjK0zKPyf Pro-business states tend to attract more biz & population $$ #texas Feb 26, 2013
  • Dennis Gartman: Selloff More Than a Rumble http://t.co/Y9IBBPHAyf Sometimes when weak holders arrive, an event like Italy trip them up $$ Feb 25, 2013
  • Generic-Drugs Court Decision Irks Businesses http://t.co/RJEEWut9Cs I don’t think this precedent will stand after the appeals process $$ Feb 25, 2013
  • I finally wrote my “big think piece” regarding security pricing. Here it is: http://t.co/hE6EGgjcJZ Death 2 Modern Portfolio Theory! $$ #FTW Feb 24, 2013
  • You’re Not as Good an Investor as You Think You Are http://t.co/2caH2rv5Rf We deceive ourselves to feel good $$ by @jasonzweigwsj Feb 23, 2013

Comments & Retweets

  • @PScatterpatter I posted a link to a smaller document with last night’s blog post http://t.co/ndWwIgtwPC Mar 01, 2013
  • @PScatterpatter Ernst & Young put it together to teach their own people Feb 28, 2013
  • @kyles09 I don’t see anyone willing to outbid & pay breakup Feb 28, 2013
  • @applehead72 enough refining, but not in right spots, also not enough transport abilities Feb 28, 2013
  • @Nonrelatedsense Didn?t know that, thanks. Feb 26, 2013
  • Anyone else have a problem that the latest Java 7 release (update 15) causes some programs to fail, like IB’s TWS? Feb 25, 2013
  • “Josh, if you have 4-6 hours to read it, the book “Once in Golconda,” gives the flavor of the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/jaZDnLqKvt $$ Feb 24, 2013
  • “Well done, from dyed-in-the-wool fundamentalist. As an example, Buffett has a bin on his desk?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/1rAp8LeP85 $$ Feb 24, 2013

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FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 24 retweets received, 117 new followers, 37 mentions. Via: http://t.co/cPSEMLXpb8 Feb 28, 2013

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Full Disclosure: long BRK/B, WFC

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Comments on the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter

Comments on the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter

I’ll let Buffett speak, and I will add a few comments.

When the partnership I ran took control of Berkshire in 1965, I could never have dreamed that a year in which we had a gain of $24.1 billion would be subpar, in terms of the comparison we present on the facing page.

But subpar it was. For the ninth time in 48 years, Berkshire?s percentage increase in book value was less than the S&P?s percentage gain (a calculation that includes dividends as well as price appreciation). In eight of those nine years, it should be noted, the S&P had a gain of 15% or more. We do better when the wind is in our face.

To date, we?ve never had a five-year period of underperformance, having managed 43 times to surpass the S&P over such a stretch. (The record is on page 103.) But the S&P has now had gains in each of the last four years, outpacing us over that period. If the market continues to advance in 2013, our streak of five year wins will end.

One thing of which you can be certain: Whatever Berkshire?s results, my partner Charlie Munger, the company?s Vice Chairman, and I will not change yardsticks. It?s our job to increase intrinsic business value ? for which we use book value as a significantly understated proxy ? at a faster rate than the market gains of the S&P. If we do so, Berkshire?s share price, though unpredictable from year to year, will itself outpace the S&P over time. If we fail, however, our management will bring no value to our investors, who themselves can earn S&P returns by buying a low-cost index fund.

I appreciate Buffett & Munger not changing their metric.? They could have said that the market return beat the S&P in 2012, but they didn’t.? Buffett is a compounder.? He figures that if he compounds net worth at an above average rate, he will beat the market returns of the S&P 500 over the intermediate term.? I agree; building intrinsic value will almost always lead to outperformance, unless the stock was significantly overvalued at the beginning.

On Searching for Acquisitions

Our luck, however, changed early this year. In February, we agreed to buy 50% of a holding company that will own all of H. J. Heinz. The other half will be owned by a small group of investors led by Jorge Paulo Lemann, a renowned Brazilian businessman and philanthropist.

We couldn?t be in better company. Jorge Paulo is a long-time friend of mine and an extraordinary manager. His group and Berkshire will each contribute about $4 billion for common equity in the holding company. Berkshire will also invest $8 billion in preferred shares that pay a 9% dividend. The preferred has two other features that materially increase its value: at some point it will be redeemed at a significant premium price and the preferred also comes with warrants permitting us to buy 5% of the holding company?s common stock for a nominal sum.

Once again, we don’t know all of the details, but it really looks like Buffett got the better part of the deal, and by a decent margin.? He continues:

Our total investment of about $12 billion soaks up much of what Berkshire earned last year. But we still have plenty of cash and are generating more at a good clip. So it?s back to work; Charlie and I have again donned our safari outfits and resumed our search for elephants.

As many expected, Buffett has more than enough cash to deploy if he sees the right deal.? With valuations being high, I don’t see how they fire the elephant gun, unless a company with protected boundaries wants to sell.

Though I failed to land a major acquisition in 2012, the managers of our subsidiaries did far better. We had a record year for ?bolt-on? purchases, spending about $2.3 billion for 26 companies that were melded into our existing businesses. These transactions were completed without Berkshire issuing any shares.

Charlie and I love these acquisitions: Usually they are low-risk, burden headquarters not at all, and expand the scope of our proven managers.

The tuck-in acquisitions of BRK are particularly valuable.? Done out of the spotlight, they get done at reasonable terms, and grow BRK organically.

The new investment managers, Combs and Weschler, did well in 2012, and Buffett is giving them more assets to manage.

As noted in the first section of this report, we have now operated at an underwriting profit for ten consecutive years, our pre-tax gain for the period having totaled $18.6 billion. Looking ahead, I believe we will continue to underwrite profitably in most years. If we do, our float will be better than free money.

Now interest rates are low, and underwriting standards are far tougher across the industry than if we were in a high interest rate environment.

Let me emphasize once again that cost-free float is not an outcome to be expected for the P/C industry as a whole: There is very little ?Berkshire-quality? float existing in the insurance world. In 37 of the 45 years ending in 2011, the industry?s premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses. Consequently, the industry?s overall return on tangible equity has for many decades fallen far short of the average return realized by American industry, a sorry performance almost certain to continue.

What Buffett is saying is that his float is unique because:

  • His company underwrites carefully.
  • There is a decent amount of long-tailed business.
  • The short-tailed business (GEICO) is growing, which makes short-dated float feel long — in essence Buffett can borrow short and invest long, for now.

A further unpleasant reality adds to the industry?s dim prospects: Insurance earnings are now benefitting [sic] from ?legacy? bond portfolios that deliver much higher yields than will be available when funds are reinvested during the next few years ? and perhaps for many years beyond that. Today?s bond portfolios are, in effect, wasting assets. Earnings of insurers will be hurt in a significant way as bonds mature and are rolled over.

He is overstating the case here.? Most P&C insurers run short asset portfolios and have already adjusted to the low interest rate environment.

Now regarding the non-insurance operating businesses of BRK, they almost all had good years in 2012.? I’m not going to say more, though I will say that Buffett spent too much ink on newspapers; it is a teensy part of BRK.

Finally. Buffett talks about dividends.? There are two major ideas here:

  • Dividends are tax-disadvantaged versus buybacks.
  • If you can compound earnings at an above-average rate, there is no reason to ever pay a dividend.

What this might mean is that when a future CEO of BRK concludes that “there are no more worlds left to conquer” a la Alexander the Great, it would be reasonable to pay a dividend.? That said, he could also:

  • Centralize HR, legal and other functions.
  • Streamline subsidiaries, and make fewer managers manage more of BRK.
  • E.g., turn BRK into a real company.

There would be many ways to reshape BRK post-Buffett.? There are benefits and costs to doing that, but I think the benefits would be significant, unless the new CEO could keep the “hands off” way that Buffett does private equity.

Full Disclosure: Long BRK/B

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