These articles appeared between November 2011 and January 2012:
Why the SEC is to blame, and not to blame, regarding the net capital rule. They changed little in 2004, but should have been more aggressive than that.
How to spot bubbles, and why our world is so messed up from an unwillingness to takes losses on bad debts.
My thoughts on monetary policy versus the many odd people who come to the conference.
After all, across human history, middle classes have been abnormal. Why should they be regarded as normal now? Has something fundamentally changed? Lotsa flame-mail on this one. Hot!
On the issues regarding cheaply valued companies where the equity is worth more then $100B.
We are no good at choosing the best assets, but we are better at choosing assets that are better than what we currently hold.
I take Eddy Elfenbein’s model and apply regression to it. The results explain what affects the price of gold — the real cost of carry.
What I write here will not be rigorous. We’ve heard about “peak oil.” We’ve heard about other resources, and how production will decline over time.
But what of credit? It isn’t that hard to create, but it is hard to create well, particularly when debt levels are high, as in this environment.
Rebalancing of any sort in investing presumes an underlying stability to the economic system, and thus, market returns. Rebalancing will not protect against socialism, war, or an overleveraged position.
Risk premiums should never be capitalized, they should only be taken into income as earned.
In the recent run-up, there was talk of the infallibility of equities. This led to a higher level of variable compensation in the economy through option and share issuance and low pressure to raise fixed wages. This was yet another form of hidden leverage, which hid the unprofitability of enterprises through share dilution.
Stocks, at least in this environment do better when inflation implied by TIPS rises.
An attempt to explain why Harry Browne’s asset allocation idea works, at least until many realize it, and send gold shooting through the roof.
This sums up the problems of our world today. Everyone wants to be paid back in full, but many are “bust” and cannot repay.
I reverse-engineered ECRI, and the response is minuscule. This took a lot of work, and was controversial.
On the value of dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, and organic growth.
After a certain point, the more data you reveal, the harder it gets to evaluate what is going on. Far better to reveal to the public the core data that explains policy than to make them slog through big data releases.
And in those cases, what is not revealed is the most important data.