Rest of the World
- Aflac Wins Wider Access to Japan Post?s Insurance Sales Network http://t.co/IDyLX4dR7c Looks like a win 4 all sides. FD: + $AFL $$ Jul 26, 2013
- Echoes of the Asian Crisis http://t.co/ZzDbO9TtFV India, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa? all r running substantial current-account deficits $$ Jul 26, 2013
- Measuring Mario Draghi’s Promises 1 Year On http://t.co/HTs9YDuBXp Mario gambled & won so far. Have the banks used this calm time well? $$ Jul 26, 2013
- China risks deflation trap as true GDP crumbles http://t.co/5UnQRRi340 Whole economic sectors that recently drove growth have stalled $$ Jul 26, 2013
- Boring But Important: ECB Relaxes Collateral Rules http://t.co/K4wOPXivpW ECB is wiling 2take less creditworthy collateral, aiding growth $$ Jul 26, 2013
- Egypt?s Vanishing Currency Black Markets http://t.co/t8FNvy09Ow The military has brought temporary calm, but can they run the economy? $$ Jul 26, 2013
- Ma Says Taiwan People Override Missiles in Meeting Xi http://t.co/ziCaK6rCFN Taiwan & China might get along, were it not for old grudges $$ Jul 26, 2013
- Japan Prices Rise Most Since ?08 in Boost for Abe: Economy http://t.co/1Fyej1sMMp May seem 2b a boost, but wait till interest rates rise $$ Jul 26, 2013
- Moody?s Sees Local Default as $21 Billion Matures http://t.co/63ThxfEOT1 How China deals w/defaults will have a long term market impact $$ Jul 26, 2013
- An American General Warns the Israeli Right?http://t.co/st9ByUkiyz Arabs either get their own state, or they get Israeli political rights $$ Jul 25, 2013
- No Menstrual Hygiene For Indian Women Holds Economy Back http://t.co/ToN7a7iYts Be grateful that you don’t live in India if u r a woman $$ Jul 25, 2013
- Egypt General Stokes Protest http://t.co/DFcjL1Rc9L U.S. Suspends Planned F-16 Delivery as Military Chief Calls for Anti-Morsi Rallies $$ Jul 25, 2013
- Pope Calls for More Just Society http://t.co/JLrQ4GWtPb Airy-fairy, what do you mean by just? Eliminating crony capitalists & socialists $$ Jul 25, 2013
- China Coal-Fired Economy Dying of Thirst as Mines Lack Water http://t.co/kvQnHgtqfE China can command projects 2b done; can’t make water $$ Jul 24, 2013
- Troubled Currencies http://t.co/2jGEw6om6f Iran, North Korea, Argentina, Venezuela, Egypt & Syria. Dig the stats: http://t.co/GR9V3YsvNc $$ Jul 24, 2013
- Mandela?s Wealth-Sharing Dream Fades in South Africa http://t.co/nRroLnSyoI Black elite replaced a White elite, little change 4 most $$ Jul 23, 2013
- Record Downgrades Foreshadow First Onshore Default http://t.co/cF5fse1yI3 Reaction 2a default in China will b interesting $$ #willtheyletit Jul 21, 2013
- China Communist Party Fate Seen Resting on Farmer Rights http://t.co/GWstYr2R10 Will Communist Party grow up & recognize property rights? $$ Jul 21, 2013
- ‘Desperate’ Cuba voyage is latest scrape for North Korean fleet http://t.co/ET7Y0n1DdE Interesting story on how bad NK merchant marine is $$ Jul 20, 2013
- Hitting China?s Wall http://t.co/BIU1vF563V Late to the party, Krugman realizes that China’s economy has to rebalance 2 more consumption $$ Jul 20, 2013
Detroit
- Detroit?s Bankruptcy: What You Need to Know http://t.co/8Y3SFcRIFA Nice summary of how most of the major parties r affected & process $$ Jul 26, 2013
- How Detroit Drowned in a Sea of Troubles http://t.co/l2aMlTRApk Most disasters result from a series of small bad decisions $$ #detroit #FTL Jul 26, 2013
- Now That Detroit?s Gone Bust, Is Your City Next? http://t.co/3C9sPJNqAw?s-gone-bust-your-city-next Consider San Diego, doesn’t fit model $$ Jul 23, 2013
- How Detroit Affects Muni-Bond Investors http://t.co/FhAnmighaI If Detroit forces losses onto bondholders, other municipalities will mimic $$ Jul 21, 2013
- Detroit Bankruptcy Judge Rhodes Is Ponzi-Law Scholar http://t.co/VgdMDjfTAD Sound like a bright, no-nonsense guy; rules over big problem $$ Jul 21, 2013
- Detroit Bankruptcy Likely to Spark a Pension Brawl http://t.co/pJybP68iHo How much will benefits b cut4active, deferred & retired workers $$ Jul 21, 2013
- Pension Payouts May Turn on Whether State or Federal Law Prevails http://t.co/fnTcOfO0i3 If State Law, then defined benefits r protected $$ Jul 21, 2013
- Moody’s: Detroit bankruptcy filing credit negative http://t.co/2BTQBZ71FI Will b interesting 2c which classes of bonds recover $$ well Jul 20, 2013
Obamacare / PPACA
- Bobby Jindal and Scott Walker: Unworkable ObamaCare http://t.co/8IDiKwfzye Opaque rules, big delays & rising costs: The chaos is mounting $$ Jul 26, 2013
- Will Obamacare Kickstart Health-Care Revolution? http://t.co/E3rffobd6G More likely to boost overall spending until we scrap & start over $$ Jul 25, 2013
- Obama’s New York Model http://t.co/qn9dtCQ7Km How NY state destroyed its insurance market using ObamaCare rules. PPACA now deregulates $$ Jul 24, 2013
- Union Fears ?Destructive Consequences? From Obamacare http://t.co/liizu2UBnf Overly complex laws often r attacked piece-by-piece $$ Jul 20, 2013
Pensions
- US States And Local Pensions Deficits Still in the Red Zone? http://t.co/absZaz1TRM Big issue. Govts didn’t put in $$, stretched assumptions Jul 26, 2013
- Corporate Pension Plans Start Return Toward Fully-Funded Status http://t.co/6ay0QU03ep Yields up, risk assets up, DB pension funding up $$ Jul 25, 2013
- David Skeel: Facing Up to America’s Pension Woes http://t.co/jIVvhQqa7B If you have a public pension, your income will b cut, get ready $$ Jul 25, 2013
Energy
- Crack spread 101 http://t.co/aBScYANDQk For a primer on how crude oil refiners make $$ , start here. FD: + $VLO $PSX $MPC Volatile beasts Jul 26, 2013
- Pimco Prepares for Life After Bill Gross http://t.co/PzFgWZZxRK The key mind that built Pimco; how will it survive without him? $$ #notwell Jul 26, 2013
- Is Your College Going Broke? http://t.co/D0xoknDZRd Forbes rates 925 schools on financial strength. Scores here 4 free; c who will live. $$ Jul 25, 2013
- Global Oil Supply Shock? http://t.co/QO1jcw8hjk Special report on Crude covering the US, Canada, Russian Supply, & global demand factors $$ Jul 22, 2013
Monetary Policy
- Fed Chief Choice Shapes Up as Race Between Summers, Yellen http://t.co/zXurDGlmMY Sad that it comes to this, neither is competent $$ #FTL Jul 25, 2013
- Bernanke Seen Slowing QE to $65 Billion in September http://t.co/roO9X8TQFb Y r we listening 2 economists? I don’t c QE tapering in 2013 $$ Jul 24, 2013
- Fed Criticized on Oversight of Bank-Owned Commodity Units http://t.co/6S07xD8quN Fed has never used its role as lead bank regulator well $$ Jul 24, 2013
- Biggest Banks Face Fed Restoring Barriers in Commodities http://t.co/daCEcXpwYM Asset allocations to commodities drove financialization $$ Jul 24, 2013
- Gonzalo Lira: The Democrats Finally Embrace Money Printing http://t.co/hgnJcw3m6F Democrats realize the larger QE is, they can spend more $$ Jul 24, 2013
- Right now, Larry Summers is the front-runner for Fed chair http://t.co/Gajh9jbKHR Reverse psychology 2 scare us 2 beg Obama pick Yellen $$ Jul 24, 2013
- Why Fed Has Failed to Lower US Unemployment http://t.co/c7HxlBAoEP Main reason:monetary policy can’t solve unemployment, regulatory issue $$ Jul 22, 2013
- Janet Yellen for Fed Chair http://t.co/zXW8cR9nKD @calculatedrisk makes a good case 4 Yellen; I would prefer someone more skeptical $$ Jul 20, 2013
Daily Journal
- If $DJCO is managing >$100 million in stocks, then y aren’t they filing a 13F-HR w/the SEC as other managers do? http://t.co/nMRJMwC2TL $$ Jul 24, 2013
- Munger Triples Publisher?s Value With Panic-Era Stock Bet http://t.co/AOAnQdJyun Cagey Munger times the bottom w/quality companies $$ $DJCO Jul 24, 2013
Financials
- Easing of Mortgage Curb Weighed http://t.co/2dsxUG9cPy The Apostles of ez debt underwriting preach their gospel 2 regulators in DC $$ #FTL Jul 24, 2013
- Americans Gambling on Rates With Most ARMs Since 2008 http://t.co/WUIyZLyRQt Proving again that u “Can’t teach a Sneech.” $$ #FTL Jul 24, 2013
- Athene’s James Belardi, a Controversial Player, Gets Into the Annuities Game http://t.co/FFnKBzJPv3 Regulate him 2 the strictest degree $$ Jul 23, 2013
- Nontraded REIT Pulls In Bundles Of Cash http://t.co/e51BfrLHhX Avoid any illiquid investment where the promoter knows far more than u $$ Jul 23, 2013
- Housing Recovery Increasingly Prices Out First-Time Buyers http://t.co/LPInUpbjmJ A good thing; ppl need 2 save&make bigger downpayments $$ Jul 23, 2013
- Commodities and banks, a recap http://t.co/SerwTZVNTj @izakaminska gives a primer on the financialization of commodities $$ Good read $STUDY Jul 23, 2013
- Resigned to reform, Wall Street tries a different tack in DC http://t.co/sEANnYTqET Look at the insurance industry, it’s better regulated $$ Jul 23, 2013
- Gorilla Flipping Homes as Rebound Revives Rapid Trades http://t.co/Z0V3aBPtlL Interesting niche: w/scale buys worst homes, rehabs/flips $$ Jul 22, 2013
- Mortgage applications fall as refinancings dry up, big opportunities for REITs http://t.co/R5q7RXcJJT REITs can issue private mortgages $$ Jul 22, 2013
- Prudential Hits Back on Risk Status http://t.co/I2B3ZawBJy $PRU right & FSOC wrong, problem isn’t size, asset quality, but liab liquidity $$ Jul 22, 2013
- In other words, unless a life insurer is writing biz that is immediately or contingently terminable, they don’t go bad in a crisis $$ $PRU Jul 22, 2013
Politics & Policy
- Letters About 401(k) Plan Costs Stir Tempest http://t.co/mFQnQ8k59A problem is that is hard 2 service small account & give them advice $$ Jul 25, 2013
- Uncertainty and the Slow Labor Market Recovery http://t.co/IvXzr0Dt6l SF Fed estimates that policy uncertainty has held back employment $$ Jul 23, 2013
- Feeling the heat on climate change http://t.co/MFMu4gUghd Climate is like markets; unpredictable, constantly varying, makes fools of us $$ Jul 23, 2013
- Parents Shell Out Less Money for Their Kids’ College http://t.co/BD3WIz4bhp Fewer will attend college, instead they will enter trades $$ Jul 23, 2013
- Reining in the audit industry’s reality distortion field http://t.co/8d6Uakd1p6 Acctg stds 2 flexible & auditors 2 chummy w/cos need chg $$ Jul 22, 2013
- Tax break that corporate America wants kept secret http://t.co/0si0ts8gpG Not secret, corporations have negotiated taxes w/IRS 4a while $$ Jul 22, 2013
- Warren?s Mistake About Wall Street Risk-Taking http://t.co/qY6jsau0Lg Crisis came b/c too many financed illiquid assets short-term $$ Jul 22, 2013
Market Impact
- It’s Possible to Graduate Debt-Free. Here’s How: http://t.co/GsypSp77mo Scholarships, online courses, use your skills 2make $$ & summer job Jul 24, 2013
- Three Big Money Mistakes You Could Be Making Right Now http://t.co/lysIFIkV6o Simplified: B careful what you spend; ez 2 waste $$ Jul 23, 2013
- Gold futures hiccup indicates demand outpacing supply http://t.co/mF13t0jDaE Too much paper gold chasing too little gold; take delivery $$ Jul 23, 2013
- Investors, Analysts See End of Commodity ‘Supercycle’ http://t.co/SEddMlCxug Probably true intermediate-term, but not long-term $$ Jul 22, 2013
- Investors Struggle With Cash Conundrum http://t.co/qgTjBIegEy Cash is unique & useful, preserves value when inflation or real rates rise $$ Jul 22, 2013
- SEC?s White Takes on Two Billionaires in One Day to Make Mark http://t.co/o9F6N9fdoz I like the current aggressive posture of the SEC $$ Jul 21, 2013
- Junk Bonds Jump as Bonds Boom http://t.co/RA46qT8g8A Yield lust resumes as bonds begin to rally more generally amid new issuance $$ Jul 21, 2013
Other
- Advances That Regrow Babies’ Hearts http://t.co/rDJ7c3sEih “Our theory is that a newborn heart has amazing growth potential…” $$ #Cool Jul 23, 2013
- Does it matter if students can?t write? http://t.co/b8txYKVd0K Yes! Ability 2 write is a proxy for ability 2 analyze qualitative data $$ Jul 24, 2013
- Wrong: How an Introvert Can Be Happier: Act Like an Extrovert http://t.co/cGEZEr6xu4 B what u like 2b & you will b happy; don’t force chg $$ Jul 23, 2013
- Duchess Casts Midwife Tradition Aside for Royal Birth http://t.co/EX1mfFiiae 4 normal births midwives r the best, they give better care $$ Jul 23, 2013
- SIM Cards Have Finally Been Hacked, And The Flaw Could Affect Millions Of Phones http://t.co/hKQbe2x2zp Watch yr cell phone bill 4 chgs $$ Jul 22, 2013
- Forget campfires, more kids heading to entrepreneur camp http://t.co/6KwzH0rv0J Interesting idea, maybe I’ll send one of my kids $$ Jul 22, 2013
- Burger Binges at Red Robin Fuel Hospitality Hiring Spree http://t.co/ri97tWIuBd Optimistic sign 4 job growth on the low end of wages $$ Jul 22, 2013
- What happens to entrepreneurs after their one-hit wonder falls from favor? http://t.co/yYpIqHrsyU 4 examples: what happens after hot->not $$ Jul 22, 2013
- A Buffett Fortune Fades in Brooklyn http://t.co/bCvLZYVSaw An unscrupulous charity invades the principal of an endowment & fails badly $$ Jul 21, 2013
- Rise of the Warrior Cop http://t.co/f9vCdBjBiu Cops become more like soldiers, trampling on rights of Americans 2 life, liberty & virtue $$ Jul 21, 2013
- Fifteen Years After Autism Panic, a Plague of Measles Erupts http://t.co/N7UmpedzYi The measles return after 15+ years of low vaccination $$ Jul 21, 2013
- Germiest Places – 8 Ways to Protect Yourself in Restaurants http://t.co/BDDbA4i9p3 U may never again feel the same about ketchup bottles $$ Jul 21, 2013
Comments, Replies, & Retweets
- Planning would be better http://t.co/eoCliTfLP2 Jul 25, 2013
- @JLGull1 It applies to Berkshire Hathaway, Perry Corp, Markel, and many other holding companies Jul 25, 2013
- @kaylatausche Honored to have you following me. Keep up the good work at CNBC; you do it well. Jul 24, 2013
- @chadstarliper What I saw was fwd rates 5 years out move up pretty hard, and not move back, much Jul 24, 2013
- @chadstarliper I agree w/ that, though in the short run, most don’t look at the fwd cv. But didn’t the fwd cv move when BB said “taper?” Jul 24, 2013
- @chadstarliper But it does affect the yield the debt is offered at vs the open market Jul 24, 2013
- @srochetrading thanks Jul 24, 2013
- @chadstarliper QE is buying ~50% of US debt issuance, Democrats would like that to continue. Jul 24, 2013
- @srochetrading I don’t know GL that well, would @ProfSteveKeen talk 2 me if I asked him? Jul 24, 2013
- I just left a comment in “Warren Buffett sidekick Munger creates a mini-Berkshire at Daily Journal” http://t.co/T4S7rdjHVp Jul 24, 2013
- I just left a comment in “Warren Buffett’s long-term stock picks – MarketWatch” http://t.co/1DB0TniNTu Jul 24, 2013
- I just left a comment in “Stagflation: The Fed?s worst nightmare – Irwin Kellner – MarketWatch” http://t.co/cHFQluVzPY Jul 23, 2013
- @Bonjubs Yes, being a Christian, a Libertarian, a loving father & husband, adopting 5 children & having 3, are all crimes against humanity Jul 22, 2013
- @Bonjubs Rebellion is almost always a mistake. It has not helped most of the Arab Spring. Most long-lasting change comes via peaceful means Jul 22, 2013
- RT @StevStiffler: ????? s??? p??? o? ?uo?d ?no? u?n? o? ???? ?up?p no? ?? ??????? Jul 21, 2013
Re: [Detroit] Pension Payouts May Turn on Whether State or Federal Law Prevails
Disagree. Michigan state law supposedly protects retirement income, but then again state law supposedly requires that pensions be fully funded. The municipality already broke state law by not funding their promises. State law is irrelevant as the city and state already demonstrated.
The pensions won’t get paid. Yes, I know many clueless academics have said government debt is risk free, because “they can always raise taxes”. GO bonds supposedly carry the protection of the municipality’s taxing authority.
Back in the real world however, this is nonsense. A muni’s taxing authority is only as good as its tax base — a rather critical “yeah but”.
Raising taxes and cutting services on young people who (as a group) own less real estate, make less money, and haven’t benefited from historical over-spending is short sighted — as Detroit, California and others have proven.
No one outside government is going to believe that bureaucrats work hard. We can argue about bureaucrat’s hours (some work very long hours, many do not) — but bureaucrat productivity is a joke. When it takes a government bureaucrat 8 hours to accomplish what any normal human gets done in a half hour — it is stupid to suggest the bureaucrat worked 16x as hard. Since the government workers have such low productivity, they should be paid 1/16th as much. Equal pay for equal work and all that.
It is unreasonable and foolish to argue that government pension promises should (or will) get paid. Patriotic Americans told the UAW to go shove it — we are not paying more to get a lower quality car just because someone in Detroit made a dumb promise.
The same thinking apply to all government union workers. Raise prices for low quality cars or lower the car quality — we will just buy cars elsewhere.
A municipality wants to raise taxes or lower services? Great, the population will move somewhere else. This actually applies twofold for younger generations that are more mobile, have less ties to a failing municipality, and place greater emphasis on future opportunity than on fulfilling yesterday’s empty promises.
Detroit’s population has collapsed for exactly this reason. California, despite its great weather and global “beach lifestyle” appeal, has also seen net migration out of the state. Other states (eg here in New England states) have received less media attention, but saw net emigration in the 2010 census for the first time in the nation’s history.
Michigan’s laws didn’t matter when the pensions were NOT being funded, and they don’t matter now. Having a state judge mumble something about “Honoring Obama’s GM bailout?” Good grief — the judge might as well have dis-accredited the entire state judiciary. Honoring a federal politician is not state law.
Detroit is not the first bloated bureaucracy to fail, and it is not likely to be the last. Defined benefit pensions are going to get canceled, just like they were in the real world (and for the same reasons).
Public servants cannot expect to be treated better than the public they are required to serve.