Day: August 3, 2013

Advice to Two Readers

Advice to Two Readers

I get a lot of requests for advice.? Here are two of them.

David,

?I really appreciate you discussing your trading/haggling strategies in the Education of a Corporate Bond Manager. ?It’s definitely given me new ideas and helped me get better pricing in my purchases the last couple of years. ?I still refer to them every few months or so.

I have a question about changing jobs in the fixed income industry – I work in a treasury division, managing my company’s cash and short-term investments. ?I’ve done well, but we use yield-based benchmarks, as part of the portfolio is used to immunize short term liabilities. ?When I interview with asset management shops, they want previous total return portfolio management experience. ? ?

Do you know any particular types of firms or sub-industries that use yield-based benchmarks? ?Does managing to a yield benchmark stunt my learning growth compared to a total return mandate?

 

Yield-based benchmarks exist when:

  • The liability structure being invested against is short (We could need this cash at any moment for business use!)
  • The liability structure is long, but well-defined, such as a bank or insurer that wants predictable income versus their liabilities, and so the game becomes maximize spread net of default costs, subject to matching asset and liability durations (and maybe partial durations if the liability stream is long).

You are doing the first of these.? Truth, what you are doing could be measured on a total return basis, but it wouldn?t make a lot of difference.

The second one applies to banks and insurers, and can be done on either basis as well.? The difficulty comes with trying to calculate the total return of the liabilities. ??If that it too hard to do, they create a bond benchmark that they think represents when they think the liabilities may pay out.? If the liabilities possess some degree of optionality, like that of residential mortgage prepayment, the benchmark could include bond options (long or short).

The yield on the bond benchmark is easy to calculate, as is the total return.?? Thus relative performance can be calculated either way.? I had to do this for an insurance client once who insisted that our performance was poor when we had returned more than 0.70% year more than single-A corporate, which was quite good.

Thus, one place you could try working is for is an insurer, bank, or other financial intermediary.? But what of those that manage funds for retail.? What then?

Aside from unconstrained funds, even a mutual fund has a liability to invest against ? the expectations of the client.? In that sense, most mutual fund managers aren?t doing full total return either ? they have to stay within a certain range for interest rate sensitivity. They also could be evaluated on the basis of yield realized versus that of a generic portfolio meeting their interest rate sensitivity targets.? More commonly, they would be ranked against their competitors on a total return basis.

In closing, it you don?t want to manage money for a bank or insurer, you?ll have to try to wedge your way into work in a total return environment ? taking a junior level position, and showing competence.? Believe me, most firms would love to promote from inside, if possible.

Sincerely,

David

Dear Mr. David Merkel,

I really appreciate your hard work you are putting in your site and I am an avid reader of it. I would like to seek your advice regarding a decision I am facing. My goal is become a value investor and establish my own asset management firm to manage my own money and other people’s money. Right now, I have the opportunity to pursue partnership in my family business and be able to run it along with my father. I am 23 years old, and I am a freshman student at the _+_+_+_+_.? If I am to be a partner in my family business, I have to drop out from the university and travel to +_+_+_+_+_+_+_, where the business is. I am still a freshman student because when I was 19 years old, I dropped out to establish my own business in the same industry as my family in +_+_+_+_+_. I had an experience running a business and I had the opportunity to sell my business after two years of operation to my cousins, and, thankfully, it was a profitable venture.

My family business is somehow facing sales shrinkage and cash flow problem due to low capital (my family made terrible mistakes in managing it) and economic downturn. They are specialty contractors and manufacturers of fenestration products (windows, doors, kitchens, curtain walls, and rolling shutters). If I am to work with them, I can be able to help them in reorganizing the company. It might be risky for me, but if everything worked out well enough, I will have earnings that I believe is better than being an employee.

I am facing a decision that I need to make. You might not be able to advice me, but whatever advice you give me, I appreciate it. If my goal is to manage my own money and other people’s money by establishing my own asset management firm, is it helpful to have a university degree or the experience of having ran a business? Shall I drop out and pursue my family business opportunity? If I am to continue studying, I will incur student loan debt which I won’t prefer. But, alas, I will do it if it need be to accomplish my goal. Thank you a lot.

You have my sympathies on two fronts:

1) Choosing between family obligations and personal goals is never easy.? I have had to face that in deciding what jobs I could take while raising my family.? I was recruited for a managing director position in an investment bank in the mid-90s, but passed it up because I could not peel away that much time from my family and church.? It took a lot of time for me to become an institutional investor as a result.? I became an investment actuary at the age of 31, started working in an investment department at age 37, started work at a hedge fund at age 42, and started my own firm at age 49.? By 49, I had more than enough assets to care for my family if my business failed, at least to put the kids through college.?? After that, I could be stretched.

2) Good operational businessmen can be very good investors.? There are synergies between the ability to operate a business, and the ability to make good investment decisions.? Don?t think that building another business is a waste of your time.? It will sharpen you in ways that most institutional investors never grasp.? I benefited a great deal from building profitable business within insurance companies, and it sharpened my knowledge on how to invest.

Now, all that said, if you take time out to rebuild your family?s business, don?t neglect your education.? Read good books on value investing, and study those who have been great.? I?m not saying that college is useless, but I am saying that much of the knowledge that academics teach on economics is deficient.? In some ways, it is better to be a clever businessman than an academically trained man.? The latter will not gain much insight into how to invest.? The businessman has a better chance.

Perhaps a good compromise would be to study for the CFA credential in your spare time.? I did that.? Along with that, invest some of your money in ideas that you think are worthy.? I did that from 1992-2003, before I began investing in stocks professionally, and I did very well.

You need to find out whether you have significant insights versus the rest of the markets.? Academic learning will not help that.? Operational business experience *might* help that.

Don?t give up your goal of managing your own value investing firm, but realize that there are many paths to getting there, and the most important thing is trying to develop insight into the markets that others don?t have.? Typically, academic study does not develop that.

I hope things work out for you.? Let me know how you do.

Sincerely,

David

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

US Politics & Policy

 

  • U.S. Declassifies Court Order Allowing Record Collection http://t.co/0AOMcCRsGi Perhaps some small step of transparency, we need better $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • Obama Urges Business Tax Rewrite to Help Spur New Jobs http://t.co/DmRwtwHS6r Lousy legislation that panders to power, it will pass $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • The Very Worst Part of Today’s Lousy Jobs Report http://t.co/Tvn2F6mWQ6 Job quality is low, growth is slow, & incomes don’t grow $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • Who Are Worse, Renters or Owners? http://t.co/cHKBfXp210 Govt meddling in housing leads 2 problems favoring old vs young, owners/renters $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • American Dream Slipping as Homeownership at 18-Year Low http://t.co/7b6sYVu8Q6 People need place 2 live, but houses r rarely good invtmts $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • Freshmen GOP Lawmakers Revel in Maverick Power http://t.co/iGaLIjt2qe We want idealistic politicians until we actually get them $$ #maverick Aug 02, 2013
  • Obama open to changes at NSA; intel officials fight to maintain secrecy http://t.co/rZaR9r2aKf Officials task-driven, Constitution blocks $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • Cities Grabbing Houses Won’t Fix the Market http://t.co/AXaCHwuIoP @asymmetricinfo on y using eminent domain on mtges is likely 2 fail $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • Coburn thinks defunding Obamacare is a horrible idea http://t.co/W2jK00gOgZ Truth-teller Tom Coburn aims to fix PPACA rather than destroy $$ Jul 28, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Walsh?s Unconstrained Wins in Bond Rout: Riskless Return http://t.co/W8LNnWE5Kr Unconstrained strategies r easier when u don’t run lotsa $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • Blackstone, Deutsche Bank in Talks to Sell Bond Backed by Home Rentals http://t.co/m3cae6mljQ This would b better killed off when little $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • Search for Muni-Bond Guidepost Sputters http://t.co/zjQHXiWAqi Start w/illiquid collateral u can’t get a liquid benchmark, pricing issues $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • Big Question Hangs Over Small-Caps http://t.co/Ehzm5j9490 Valuations r stretched, but large cap mgrs need a way to beat their benchmarks $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • No, Earnings Have Not Been ‘Good’ http://t.co/kT7dfnbeUN Actual earnings growth has been anemic, which matters more in the long-run $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • Leveraged Loans Pass ?12 Level With Record Ahead http://t.co/Mf7OHWm5kB Quality & pricing r getting sacrificed 4 quantity; bad long-run $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • BlackRock Rolls Out Index 2 Make Inroads in Retirement Market http://t.co/uRpJ6qvfmj How much $$ do u need 4 a decent retirement income $BLK Aug 02, 2013
  • Bank commodity earnings are a mystery http://t.co/TjMkuWTnS9 Neglects financialization of commodities by pension plans & retail investors $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • This is the cost of sitting on cash in a bull market. Different when valuations are stretched, like now. http://t.co/WYC6bAReyt Aug 01, 2013
  • JPMorgan to quit physical commodity trade amid scrutiny http://t.co/VWmtIClYXk Business case: commodities require 2much capital&attention $$ Jul 28, 2013
  • Tourre Tells of Low Status at Goldman in Defense Preview http://t.co/uCc7GWK5LB “I didn’t have any significant authority at GS! I didn’t” $$ Jul 28, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • How Venezuelan Used ?Scrape? to Make Six Times Her Salary http://t.co/L3rUmVK3vB When currencies r manipulated, clever people play games $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • Wheat Costs in Japan to Gain for 3rd Time as Abenomics Bites http://t.co/mPQxXBGAjc Devaluing the yen has negative side-effects $$ #duh Aug 03, 2013
  • Merkel?s Green Shift Backfires as German Pollution Jumps http://t.co/JAXdm53hiT Closing down nuclear plants was an unforced error ->coal $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • How Big Is China?s Debt? The Best Guesses http://t.co/BzY8f7Gzz3 This estimates total governmental debt at all levels, not total debt $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • The $7 Trillion Problem That Could Sink Asia http://t.co/A9y8QzOx54 In the short-run Asians would acquire $$, in long-run it would hurt $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • Japan’s Three-Year Fiscal Plan to Urge Sales Tax Rise http://t.co/jxsYhJc24E Will be difficult 2 execute, w/o a lot of political backlash $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • Ghana?s Dancing Pallbearers, Insurers Lead Funeral Boom http://t.co/GWd4V8xu3g $$ spent for status events is wasted, & keeps people poor. Aug 02, 2013

 

Companies & Industries

  • Tax Shelters, Nebraska Hurricanes And Other Captive Insurance Mistakes http://t.co/V7Xsp1tmek 10 rules 2 keep a captive insurer legit $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • 7-Eleven Adds Bento Rigor to Slurpee Appeal in US Push http://t.co/www8ObGqhL 7-11 went from the US 2 Japan, then goes back w/Japan mgmt $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • Third Point Hedge Fund Targets CF Industries http://t.co/ioIzcPlFlu Thinks that $CF could free up more cash 4 shareholders $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • Uralkali Breaks Potash Accord to Grab Market Share http://t.co/EfyqzqZr8P Amazing the effect a large foreign player can have on US cos $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • Burger Costs Rising With Beef Supply at 21-Year Low http://t.co/nXfFXEECbd Should c higher prices, more births, less slaughter, etc. $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • SAP Invades Silicon Valley via Acquisitions http://t.co/vXOK0YmIb8 Creates room 4 new competitors as acquirers don’t integrate them well $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • Why Are Google Employees So Disloyal? http://t.co/Ye0ZBLADtk Calculate actuarial decrement tables 2 arrive at the truth $$ Avgs don’t work. Jul 30, 2013

 

Central Banking

 

  • When you?re rattled by collateral, do the Fed taper talk http://t.co/lImzjMdmT8 Taper talk forced on the Fed 4 market operational reasons $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • Near-Zero Interest Rate Trap http://t.co/hjoBF5acb6 If long-term rates rise 2 normal levels, banks holding bonds would b de-capitalized $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • Money shot from John Mauldin: “We are watching the Fed employ a trickle-down monetary policy.” Couldn’t have said it better. $$ Jul 28, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Afrikaners Reaping Colorado Wheat Threatened by Visa Cap http://t.co/Cj6pTKm5NG 2nd largest immigrant ag labor group might get restrained $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • Banker Saves 20,000 From Nepal to Uganda With Her Profits http://t.co/c0HURcg3wJ Rather than wait 4 death, pursues charity personally now $$ Aug 03, 2013
  • Pope Signals Openness to Gay Priests http://t.co/t5leZXst4D Jesus said that the sin was not only in the action, but in the thought $$ Matt 5 Aug 02, 2013
  • My Life & Past, as Seen Through Google’s Dashboard http://t.co/LPkviIKHGj Would u like 2 review your history? Would u like 2 delete it? $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • Famous Restaurant Chains That Have All But Disappeared http://t.co/i5yxIighw7 Remember Chi-Chis, Sambo’s, Bennigan’s, Steak & Ale, HoJo? $$ Aug 02, 2013

 

Replies, Retweets & Comments

  • Commented on StockTwits: Thanks, Howard. Coming from you, that is high praise that I hope to live up to. http://t.co/Q5ikvtjzHa Aug 03, 2013
  • @zingfinapp That’s part of the nature of the seasonal adjustment factor: when jobs over/undershoot in current month, they adjust prior same Aug 03, 2013
  • @Kevin_Holloway This is surfacey, but it looks good for all parties except other Japanese insurers… Aug 02, 2013
  • “The keys to merger are keep them small & integrate them well. Does anyone do this consistently?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/cEGnuBXrYe $$ Aug 02, 2013
  • @ReformedBroker But it lowers volatility, I’m sure… and in a real equity market catastrophe, it will be a home run in relative terms. 😉 Jul 27, 2013
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