Day: August 17, 2013

On Credit Quality in Life Insurance

On Credit Quality in Life Insurance

When I was 20+ years younger the new chief actuary of a subsidiary I was in came and told me his tale of woe.? At a prior company he had worked for, the company had terminated the defined benefit pension plan, and went to a low-credit quality insurer to purchase annuities to match the terminated benefits.

His complaint was that he had no say in the matter.? With ordinary debt agreements, the debtor has no right to assign his debt to another debtor, without the assent of the creditor.

In the same way, those that buy policies from insurance companies run the risk that their policies could be sold to a weaker insurance company.

20+ years ago, my friend said there was a simple solution, and I agree with it.? When a financial company takes over the liabilities of another financial company, those who have lent to the original company should have the right to receive their assets back at full value, with no deductions for surrender charges, etc.

This is basic.? Debtors should not be able to assign debts to another party, without the assent of the creditor.

I have seen the same thing recently in this article, as aggressive life insurers buy up policies of less aggressive life insurers.? Those insured should have a way out, as the creditworthiness of the insurer has gone down.

I am arguing that life insurers should not be able to sell their liabilities without the insured having an option to cash out at full value.? I realize that this would limit valuations among life insurers, but so what?? The basics of what is fair in debtor/creditor relations should prevail.? Big insurance companies should not have a different set of rules than would be common to other debtor/creditor relationships.

 

Asset-Liability Management for Mutual Funds, and Others Like Them

Asset-Liability Management for Mutual Funds, and Others Like Them

How much confidence do you have in your investments, mutual fund manager?? How much cash do you hold?? If you are very confident, maybe you should hold more cash.? Confidence comes near market peaks.? Everything seems certain; nothing goes badly wrong.? But the turning point might be near.

Same for bear markets.? Amid weakness, reinvest in companies with weak performance that you know are essential, with good balance sheets. Reduce cash during the crisis, because stocks are on sale.

These are pain trades, because they offend our sensibilities.? My view is that you follow price momentum during the middle of a run, and try to resist it near the end.? This applies to both bull and bear markets.

I try to mitigate risk by holding more cash after the market has run hard, and less cash after the market has cratered.? I resist the market’s movements.

But what if shareholders lose confidence?? What if they pull a disproportionate amount of money?

A lost of that depends on how badly you do.? If you do really badly, there is no hope.? When shareholders leave en masse, there are no good solutions.? Sell your positions with the lowest expected return, should you know what stocks those are.? Maybe your best picks, however concentrated, will turn the tide eventually.

I would encourage all mutual fund managers, and those like them, to take courage.? Make the hard decisions, and stick by your best ideas.? Look to the long term and aim for best total return.? If you can’t do this, find another job, because you are not cut out for money management.

Though money management firms are out to gather fees, money managers are out to outperform.? Have appropriate pride for what you do, and give it your best.? Try to avoid panic moves because investors are adding a lot of money, or redeeming a lot of money.

The main idea is this: know your investments, and what you expect them to return.? Add/subtract from your investments in proportion to their desirability.

The balance sheet of a mutual fund is weak because anyone can ask for their money back immediately.? Now, if you are a good money manager with a strong record, your assets will be more sticky.? Opposite true if you don’t have a good record.

And sad in a way, because good track records do not always maintain.? My view is that they do maintain outperformance on average until they hit their limit of assets that their style can manage.

So, invest with smaller promising managers, until they get too big.? As for the managers, be reasonable about what you can manage, like some hedge fund friends of mine, who shut off flows to their special fund near $100 million of net assets.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Companies & Industries

 

  • Odyssey Hits Wall as Honda Redesigns Minivan to Ace Test http://t.co/6VyK2N2EcO $HMC goes all out to reduce crash injuries 4 2014 Odyssey $$ Aug 16, 2013
  • Fairholme Fund May Increase Bet on Fannie, Freddie http://t.co/EOj8Z9SCzg BB reopens fund 2 get more buying power 4 F&F. Wouldn’t do it $$ Aug 16, 2013
  • Warren Buffett Stake in Suncor Energy, Much More Than It Seems http://t.co/ULDMXqYAnt $SU will be producing high cost oil 4a long time $$ Aug 15, 2013
  • Mall Owners Entice Hispanic Shoppers http://t.co/k42J96Nhxc Temporary stopgap 4 malls being hollowed out by retail over the internet $$ Aug 15, 2013
  • Losing Faith in Gold From Ghana to Vancouver Proves Rout http://t.co/K6VcC7Duyj More high cost mines come out of production as gold falls $$ Aug 15, 2013
  • The iCahn Effect: Apple’s Market Cap Jumps by $17B After Tweets http://t.co/8qb0rUWjCR Don’t c how $1B should move a stock $17B $$ $AAPL Aug 14, 2013
  • Y Food Companies Are Fascinated by the Way We Eat http://t.co/NhIRtprRWj Do u like 2 chew, crunch, smoosh or suck? Food companies study u $$ Aug 14, 2013
  • Financials near to regaining S&P 500’s top spot http://t.co/fgSKGOrfyC We do not learn, we do not learn, we do not learn, we do not learn $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Endurance Welcomes Fred Cooper 2Head US Financial Institutions Insurance Practice http://t.co/XpQcxwYwJS Picking up nickels… $$ FD: + $ENH Aug 13, 2013
  • Heinz announces layoffs in Pittsburgh and Canada http://t.co/VG3WI8OTfs Now that the merger has closed, the cost rationalization begins $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Funny in a way: pricing rationality & profits flow to hard disk makers once the industry consolidated down to three players $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • WD? Founds New Storage Association To Promote The Critical Role Of Magnetic Storage Technologies http://t.co/4jKYDyGGb2 FD: + $WDC $$ Aug 13, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • India Shares Slump, Rupee Sinks to Fresh Low http://t.co/cfEnRd5EjQ Central Bank tightens credit conditions- Rupee still falls & stocks2 $$ Aug 16, 2013
  • How Mexico Ended Political Gridlock With a Pact http://t.co/GjNEfA0Ela How the PAN & PRI managed to work together & get most mutual goals $$ Aug 16, 2013
  • What Obama Misunderstands About Egypt http://t.co/UAKXAQBOPs No one worthy of support here, as Egypt slides into a situation like Syria’s $$ Aug 16, 2013
  • Cayman to Singapore Gain as Rules Stump Clinics http://t.co/giudbhHATR Medical Tourism looks elsewhere as India makes things hard $$ Aug 14, 2013
  • Petrobras Downgrade Looms as Slump Sinks Rating Outlooks http://t.co/EpRahHggSF Brazilian corporate sector got too aggressive w/debt $$ $PBR Aug 13, 2013
  • Death of 75-Year Monopoly Can?t Come Soon Enough: Mexico Credit http://t.co/wqfnynnYkP PEMEX monopoly lasts 75 yrs, dies in a few weeks? $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Japan Inc. Profit Doubles to Add Support to Economic Rebound http://t.co/xv5dPxlRHO Sends $$ from consumers 2 exporters 2 invest abroad Aug 13, 2013
  • Mexico Plans Oil Reserve Sweetener to Lure Exxon, Chevron http://t.co/Ol0sGlse9h Will allow companies 2count reserves from profit-sharing $$ Aug 14, 2013
  • Buffett-Style Dinner Auctions Lure Chinese Seeking Just Society http://t.co/7dK9W52Yhe Long article on odd business seeking a freer China $$ Aug 14, 2013
  • What Brazilian Slowdown? Petrobras Maxes Out Refining Capacity&Imports Oil2Meet Demand http://t.co/0FsI0V6V27 $PBR Milked by Brazil govt $$ Aug 13, 2013

?

Bond Markets

?

  • Confident Consumers Step Up Their Borrowing http://t.co/QkD3Xss4NS Auto Loans Post Largest Gain in 7Yrs, as Total Consumer Debt Declines $$ Aug 16, 2013
  • California Sells $5.5B in Bonds http://t.co/TbUGTpmTk7 Better fiscal mgmt, maybe, at least it is not Michigan. Liquidity is abundant $$ Aug 16, 2013
  • Muni Investors Make Michigan Pay http://t.co/zCWMx5Ba2a To get a muni deal done in Michigan, you need extra yield & guarantees/covenants $$ Aug 15, 2013
  • Summer Lull Draws Investors to Riskier Debt http://t.co/08H0vfFj1b Feels like time to begin peeling back credit risk $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Bond Hubris Overwhelms Fed in Riskiest Credit-Market Sectors http://t.co/WUKgfpse77 No free lunch; Fed’s asset inflation will mean-revert $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Michigan Safety Net for Boomers Frays on Bankrupt Detroit http://t.co/tTso4JMxTR What happens when u make 2 many promises vs tax base $$ Aug 13, 2013

?

Central Banking

 

  • Fed’s Yellen Says Stance on Banks Hardened http://t.co/KZIfgPncaN Yellen tries 2 differ from Summers, but bank regulation was weak 2003-8 $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Next Fed Head Should Meet the Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren Standard http://t.co/xM9MF71dvM Questions aren’t realistic about $$ policy Aug 13, 2013
  • Yellen, Fischer Among Participants at Jackson Hole This Year http://t.co/MBui5Hfc3y Bernanke not attending as he slips into the shadows $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Rand Paul on Republicans’ Voter Appeal and the Federal Reserve http://t.co/oVdaavHWsj Can we find another Reagan, who united the GOP? $$ #no Aug 13, 2013

 

Market Impact

?

  • Hundred-Dollar Stocks Double as US CEOs Dismiss Splits http://t.co/OOmXdpWSrU With trading costs so low, y do we need splits anyway? $$ Aug 15, 2013
  • How to Invest Like Seth Klarman http://t.co/JDxW9VbROs Easier said than done. Who has the conviction 2 sit on $$ when opportunities r poor? Aug 13, 2013
  • Greater &lesser rotations http://t.co/XZ6D4CgIZq “no evidence that retail investors r very overweight bonds or very underweight equities” $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Will Mom and Pop investors blow it again? http://t.co/95lZYtIZ6u @BrettArends on retail $$ coming back into stocks; time 2b careful Aug 13, 2013

?

Politics & Policy

?

  • What We Lose if We Give Up Privacy http://t.co/ZOddurR51k When 4th Amendment rights erode, 1st Amendment rights follow, eg, free speech $$ Aug 16, 2013
  • Free Work Entices Businesses to Hire Long-Term Unemployed http://t.co/Lhemn5JIWp Try b4u buy lets employers figure out who they like $$ Aug 15, 2013
  • Problems With Authority http://t.co/JjIgnIJVEh Obama ignores unusual writ of mandamus, which compels the govt 2fulfill a legal obligation $$ Aug 14, 2013
  • Everything you know about immigration is wrong http://t.co/UpHiI0Wwfd Militarizing the border did not stop the flow in, did stop flow out $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Encryption App Silent Circle Shuts Down E-Mail Service ‘To Prevent Spying’ http://t.co/95KCJt80mH Destroying data 2 preserve secrecy $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Eric Holder Owes the American People an Apology http://t.co/07JtmV95QA Vastly overstated the efficacy of mortgage relief programs $$ Aug 13, 2013

?

Housing

 

  • Report: Half of All Homes Are Being Purchased With Cash http://t.co/p9GF4dOBUz Good sign. More equity means greater sustainability $$ Aug 15, 2013
  • Baltimore Foreclosures Surge Again as Legal Logjam Breaks http://t.co/xphbxvRXjv Foreclosures take longer 2work out in judicial states $$ Aug 15, 2013
  • Why Home-Price Growth Will Slow http://t.co/IZaE08udfI Prices up, mortgage rates up, fewer distressed homes available 4 sale $$ Aug 13, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Mom, Dad, Sorry I Was So Expensive http://t.co/VakZSkmE3r If u think having children is expensive, imagine the $$ of a society w/out them Aug 15, 2013
  • DNA Sequencing of Tumors Brings Hope of New Lung-Cancer Drugs http://t.co/YRul3Gfiva Costs high, distinguishing between diff cancers worx $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Companies Ease Up on Non-Compete Agreements http://t.co/iEhtgQ7qjq Restraint of Trade laws also make it difficult to enforce non-competes $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Overhaul Proposed for Annual Audit Reports http://t.co/8LAgJf5rrU Could b good 2 get past the the present binary pass/fail $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Stocktwits ? Happy 5th Anniversary http://t.co/AQ8vI1kOsC @howardlindzon extols efforts made as they r the premier social investing site $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Browser wars: Chrome rules the web http://t.co/QoGqVlVNcI The sun never sets on the Empire of Google’s Chrome; IE dying, Firefox choking $$ Aug 13, 2013

 

On Fiduciaries

  • On brokers as fiduciaries, choose: mixed advice, paid for by commissions, best advice, but u have to pay more 2a fiduciary, or no advice $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • You Can’t Afford Your Broker, at Any Price http://t.co/C46ndiTx6U by @asymmetricinfo on holding brokers 2a fiduciary standard $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Look Who?s Locking Horns Over Retirement Accounts http://t.co/xSRFtbFndD @jasonzweigwsj tells us 2 act as our own fiduciaries or hire one $$ Aug 13, 2013

?

Wrong

  • Wrong: Don?t Kill Fannie Mae http://t.co/JqDk0kNJM5 People forget the incredible losses on prime mortgages when housing prices fell $$ Aug 15, 2013
  • Dumb: Retirees in Enemy Territory Go Door-to-Door on PPACA http://t.co/4xSgHH2qNL Won’t work unless young & healthy sign up on exchanges $$ Aug 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Your mortgage documents are fake! http://t.co/rErbfMzP7B Mistakes procedural justice 4 real justice. U don’t pay, U get foreclosed $$ Aug 13, 2013
  • Wrong: In defense of the 30-year mortgage http://t.co/cc9kgtRJpM Over-investment in housing & levers up the economy, creating fragility $$ Aug 13, 2013

?

Replies, Retweets, & Comments

  • RT @TheLimerickKing: QE has not led to inflation It’s now a much worse situation Velocity’s low But risk assets grow So now it’s just wealt? Aug 15, 2013
  • Commented on StockTwits: No, I don’t. Ultimately all assets boil down to their cash flows. This doesn’t change th… http://t.co/xjshS62La2 Aug 14, 2013
  • A shout-out to DarkCloud @p0stk0m for being my 8,000th Twitter follower. Thanks a lot, & thanks to all who follow me $$ Aug 14, 2013
  • @marketfolly @EquityNYC That is a very good point, and I internally noted it, but did not comment. I should have. 🙁 $$ Aug 14, 2013
  • “Congratulations, Howard. Well done, particularly the way you survived Twitter’s $ grab.” -Merkel http://t.co/tOlvvEqy0P @howardlindzon $$ Aug 12, 2013

?

Theme: Overlay by Kaira