Day: August 30, 2013

The Rules, Part L

The Rules, Part L

Countries are firms that produce claims on assets and goods

If I were rewriting this today, it might read, “Countries are firms that produce claims on assets, goods, and income, and anything else they can dream of, in order to retain their privileged position.”

Countries exist for defense and internal justice.? That’s the bare minimum; think of it this way: can there be rivals for defense and internal justice without a civil war?? With many other issues, countries may be willing to share the load — charities that deal with the poor, in addition to welfare programs.

Countries have unique taxation rights, and though big businesses and other interest groups may bend countries to their will, the countries still have their rights.? In a crisis, that could be significant.

FDR confiscated gold during a crisis.? Cyprus swiped bank deposits in a crisis.? Argentina meddles with pension monies.? What could governments do as entitlement (welfare) payments rise more rapidly than taxes?? I don’t know for sure, but you can bet there will be some desperate moves made, tapping many sources of income, transactions, and assets, as well as limit benefits via benefits taxation and other methods.

You could even see widespread purging of the SS Disability Insurance [SSDI] rolls in a real crisis.? I think of an former neighbor, on SSDI because of a bad back who was regularly on his roof putting up and taking down Christmas lights.? He always seemed hale & hearty to me, but there he was on the government dole.

To the extent that they can, countries establish the rules of the economic game. reserving the right to change the rules.?? It has to be this way, because aside from God, there is no greater power that can make countries change their ways by fiat.? Yes, there are wars and civil wars, but those have no determinate outcome.? No one orders a country around directly.? Indirectly, things are different, as diplomacy may bring pressure that makes another country compromise.

The model where countries rule over others to get “a piece of the action” is a fair approximation economically of how countries act.? Consider it as you invest, especially with foreign investing.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Companies & Industries

 

  • Falling gas prices this Fall http://t.co/EQkgsyKoSm Pollution requirements fall, people drive less, overcomes geopolitical effects $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Wal-Mart vs Costco, Why My Critics R Wrong http://t.co/2eBuKkJ8G2 $WMT offers more variety vs $COST | thus more people lower wage rates $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Brazilian Billionaire Who Controls Your Beer, Condiments, & Whopper http://t.co/CbfdxNQLAP Long piece on Jorge Lemann $$ #Heinz $BRK.B Aug 30, 2013
  • New York to Seattle Buyers Tap Brakes After Rates Rise http://t.co/uU0NS9CiCU Rising prices & mortgage rates mean loan payments 2 high $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • US Bank Legal Bills Exceed $100B Bloomberg http://t.co/BklYyebbFV Just think how profitable they will be when the dust settles 😉 $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Cheap Corn Deters Buyers in US Sugar-for-Ethanol Plan http://t.co/sAYPAt1G9g Corn scarcity becomes corn glut, reinforcing sugar glut $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Why Wal-Mart Will Never Pay Like Costco http://t.co/EPVjeV0OvF $WMT has much wider diversity of products, so more workers @ lower pay $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Why Is Chicken More Expensive? Ask McDonald’s http://t.co/iU7OzuIF8f When $MCD adds a new ingredient to their menu, drives prices higher $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Xerox Can Fix Number-Switching Scanners, but Not Altered Docs http://t.co/6HfzO8IqtV Could b a lot of work 2 re-scan originals if u havem $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • JPMorgan Worth 30% More If Broken Up, KBW Says http://t.co/b5eJc14Lio Pure play financial institutions always get better valuations $JPM $$ Aug 24, 2013
  • Apple, Samsung, IBM, World’s Universities in Graphene Gold Rush http://t.co/riFRiMHAzN Crystalline Carbon 1 atom thick sheets are amazing $$ Aug 24, 2013
  • College is like gasoline, demand for it is inelastic. Thus any subsidy gets captured by the college, & taxes get eaten by gas consumers $$ Aug 24, 2013
  • The Real Reason College Costs So Much http://t.co/NJNV3Ksovg Richard Vedder explains how federal subsidies push up the price on college $$ Aug 24, 2013
  • djco_corresp-031513.htm http://t.co/VwvVLv7mZi Munger’s law firm explains y $DJCO shouldn’t b viewed as an investment company. Well done! $$ Aug 24, 2013

US Politics & Policy

 

  • Obama Is About 2Undermine His Mideast Doctrine http://t.co/VveJslt6LM Obama has mostly tried 2disengage US from Mideast, this reverses it $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • The Rising Cost of Social Security Disability Insurance http://t.co/4sEVmFKDfc SSDI’s trust fund runs out is 2016; 2EZ 2get on disability $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • And Next Year There Will Be an Eighth Budget ?Showdown? http://t.co/2nflqEZLPM Rate of budget growth slowed, but scope of govt expands $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Regulators Ease Mortgage Rules http://t.co/LuEU9uY1Hz Swiss cheese regs destroy direct incentives 4 originators 2 produce quality loans $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Regulators Back Away From Tougher Mortgage Rules http://t.co/4WQwGVNnF9 More capital needs to be held against exotic mortgage loans, good $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Obama Meets Panel Reviewing US Surveillance Programs http://t.co/kjDsoD3K7D Repeal the Patriot Act; modifications r not enough $$ Aug 28, 2013
  • College Leaders Wary of Obama Plan Linking College Aid to Rank http://t.co/jw7K3X29TV Plan could hurt the very parties Obama wants 2 help $$ Aug 25, 2013
  • Samantha Power on the Duty to Intervene http://t.co/B4ttOrPB3T This argues that the US should be the cop of the globe 4 the worst things $$ Aug 25, 2013

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Rest of the World

 

  • Sinopec-Apache Deal Shows China’s Resource Appetite http://t.co/90Yr1G9aUN China learns how 2negotiate minority stakes in oil properties $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Hollande Draws Heat From Biz 4 Tax-Driven Pension Revamp http://t.co/62E5lKMHqr France?s tax burden is ~46% of GDP, 3rd highest in Europe $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Scandinavia?s Weakest Nation Finds Welfare Habits Too Costly http://t.co/UCNH3umT7p Denmark looks forward, realizes it must cut welfare $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • The Abenomics Mirage: In Reality, Too Many Challenges? http://t.co/542B5V4JHw Japan imports on net so a lower yen doesn’t help much $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Schaeuble Snubs Greek Plea for Direct Bank Recapitalization http://t.co/lCStBdF3Qc Perhaps Greece needs 2 establish effective taxation $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Spaniards Fleeing Jobless Scourge Seek Jobs in Morocco http://t.co/pZZexcIzCY Can’t earn as much but can earn something as Spain shrinks $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Start-Ups Fill Void Left by Spain?s 26% Unemployment Rate http://t.co/9a2RqRUG6i If u can’t work 4 someone else u can work 4 yourself $$ Aug 28, 2013
  • Czech Zero Percent Lending Rate Feeds Home-Buying Frenzy http://t.co/cWZ24eKjxb Bad things happen when there is seemingly free $$ available Aug 28, 2013
  • Vietnam Rises as Middle Power at Defense Summit http://t.co/tHVz8Yn4SP Wants to stay neutral btw the US & China, while protecting itself $$ Aug 28, 2013
  • Teachers Roil Mexico Capital http://t.co/qrQif3mpsY Maybe it’s time 2 move the capital out of Mexico City, to someplace more hospitable $$ Aug 28, 2013
  • Emerging-Market Rout Intensifies on Syria Jitters http://t.co/U4upWVYVAE Jitters affect oil mkt & it spills over in to weak emerging mkts $$ Aug 28, 2013
  • Fed Officials Rebuff Coordination Calls as QE Taper Looms http://t.co/kTaFgn7CwT Emerging markets whipsawed as US monetary policy shifts $$ Aug 28, 2013
  • Veteran Saudi Power Player Prince Bandar Works To Build Support to Topple Assad http://t.co/cXFO7hLG9W Islamic proxy war continues $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • Emerging Europe Is a Haven in Selloff http://t.co/OErr8eqJjt Hard to damage nations w/more orthodox fiscal policies, but still part of EZ $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • Emerging market slump highlights Fed’s global reach http://t.co/mxmfLY6ya2 The US sneezes & the world catches cold, again $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • Charlene Chu Interview with Goldman on China?s Credit Bubble http://t.co/ytHhrZYm7H Excellent Interview showing future China weakness $$ Aug 27, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Scientists Shed New Light on Black Holes http://t.co/oNyfGEJKHM The speed w/which gas is pulled toward a black hole repels some entering $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Is It Evil to Send Your Kids to Private School??http://t.co/SljCeNm7qq Parents will always find ways 2keep children out of subpar schools $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Age-Related Forgetfulness Tied to Diminished Brain Protein http://t.co/fFe2U2eqQw This may have some promise in reducing dementia $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Definitive merger agreement between 2 business journalists http://t.co/Pup53ksizg Do some R&D, & create subsidiaries that will b spun off $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • How Haute Vegetables R Conquering $500 Tasting Menus http://t.co/QTAxKlwm1S Borage is a well-known medicinal herb; interesting 1st course $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Six Reasons the US Will Dominate http://t.co/ZreqluzZJS Immigrants, more workers, entrepreneurship, labor flexibility, <Financing, strong $$ Aug 28, 2013
  • P2P lending pulls in big investors – should you bite? http://t.co/jyg3kdaSrr Soon 2 come, a peer2peer lending closed-end fund $$ #ohno #FTL Aug 28, 2013
  • Shoeshines Keep Wall Street in the Black (or Maybe Brown) http://t.co/LQNtODrhcP A unique institution stays alive on Wall Street $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • Sometimes I think Federal education policy is designed to weigh down the system, making it easier 4 private & home schools 2 outperform $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • Biggest Changes in a Decade Greet Students http://t.co/BIgJHbqiLN Some Teachers, Parents Push Back on New Standards “Common Core” $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • Home Births on the Rise for New York Families http://t.co/MYxaaeEWua Fascinating trend, though I think the best is a midwife @ a hospital $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • Midwives provides far better care than doctors w/normal deliveries, & they r cheaper. Being @ a hospital provides insurance if trouble $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • Are You Ready for the Post-College SAT? http://t.co/WyscN8A7W6 College is not valuable to some employers -> a new test 2 show your smarts $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • Regarding that last tweet, could testing replace college? Credentialing is important, but do we need to waste four years to credential? $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • Jail Becomes Home for Husband Stuck With Lifetime Alimony http://t.co/Mb4Q8Q0PjH Debtors prison returns in a new form $$ long article Aug 27, 2013
  • Muriel Siebert, First Woman to Buy Seat on NYSE, Dies at 84 http://t.co/qzeE9csU2K Used to have an account w/her firm; good company $$ Aug 27, 2013
  • Ben Franklin Gets a Makeover http://t.co/Rxm3ipFY0g Ben Franklin owned slaves?! Whouda thunk it! New presentation about a complex guy $$ Aug 25, 2013
  • Dishwashers Beat Clothes as US Moms Use Hand-Me-Downs http://t.co/cbcn0ENrp1 People buy things w/longer-term value, reduce luxuries $$ Aug 25, 2013

 

PPACA / Obamacare

 

  • A New Kind of Insurance Head-Scratcher: Estimating Future Income http://t.co/YeW19BKNhf Incentive will b2 under-report until checked $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • The Young and the Healthy http://t.co/PuODKsJBSZ One more calculator 4 Obamacare subsidies 4 young & not well-paid $$ Old win, young lose Aug 30, 2013
  • Senior Discounts http://t.co/Do37iNPq7I Interesting illustrative calculator on premium subsidies under Obamacare. Incentives to earn less $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Thus PPACA will have an incentive 2 destroy working, & the exchanges will fail, as they will only attract the sick, young ppl stay away $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Also, look at this graphic http://t.co/WTV8HAcVVZ As incomes go from 25K to 55K, subsidy is lost & an implied 17% tax from the loss $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Subsidies for Older Buyers Give Health Insurers a Headache http://t.co/0eOfVj33XU Subsidies will will older poor in2 exchanges, not young $$ Aug 30, 2013

 

Harbinger Group Life Insurance IPO
?? Falcone Insurer Said to Seek $1 Billion Valuation in IPO – Bloomberg http://t.co/RoHy0ODzQu & my tart comments: http://t.co/JSu9QvtXhf $$ Aug 30, 2013

  • Harbinger’s insurance unit files for $100M IPO http://t.co/72DBoMSG6C $HRG pays itself a dividend; dig the 28pp of risk factors @ the SEC $$ Aug 29, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Pimco Sees Taper in Worst MBS Slump Since 1999 http://t.co/UdXVCkajVo Bond market summary, particularly noting taper effect on MBS market $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Some IPOs Aim for Small Investors http://t.co/3hh47lfQ6K Keep your hand on your wallet, alternative stock distribution methods untested $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Currency Spikes at 4 PM in London Provide Rigging Clues http://t.co/fyG78r3RhI All human systems r gamed; need 2 acct 4 that w/benchmarks $$ Aug 28, 2013
  • How ?black squirrels? infested Wall Street http://t.co/6CIVfJcpAF Efforts to level playing field made it more opaque & hazardous $$ #complex Aug 27, 2013
  • Cyclical Stocks Looking Historically Cheap http://t.co/FomqlE3ZDq Yes, cheap. What will happen 2 cyclical earnings if the economy slows? $$ Aug 25, 2013

 

Central Banking

 

  • Fed’s IG says central bank violated document rules http://t.co/YCtbIbhfAJ Issued minutes of policy meeting a day b4 the scheduled release $$ Aug 30, 2013
  • Did Fed?s Forward Guidance Backfire? Paper Says Probably http://t.co/C4Ew7T2AXR The idea that clear Fed communication works is unproven $$ Aug 25, 2013
  • Summers as Obama Voice of Authority Rides Car Rescue in Fed Race http://t.co/EKKOnRhvq1 Good piece on y Obama may pick Summers 4Fed Chair $$ Aug 25, 2013

 

Wrong, Etc.

  • Wrong: CLO Rule Aimed to Pass Retention to Banks Won?t Work, RBS Says http://t.co/KkQQ8l2lqw Will shrink the # of issuers, that’s not bad $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Bad title: Why Is Vladimir Putin Acting So Crazy? http://t.co/ILtxIFNOSO He’s acting rationally in response to changing conditions $$ Aug 29, 2013
  • Wrong:Will Obama Make the Fed Even Worse? http://t.co/YZblnIKzOe Not well argued. More about his view $$ policy is 2 tight, less about Obama Aug 27, 2013
  • Sort of: The Strong Case for Optimism About US Growth http://t.co/5LJgQuli4v Except it is optimism after 5 more years of deleveraging $$ Aug 27, 2013

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Retweets, Replies & Comments

  • RT @EddyElfenbein: Happy 83rd Birthday to Warren Edward Buffett @WarrenBuffett. The Dow was at 240.42 eighty-three years ago. Aug 30, 2013
  • #FollowFriday Thanks @ReformedBroker @pelias01 @researchpuzzler for being top influencers in my community this week 🙂 Aug 30, 2013
  • Thanks @OGMarcusC @Metalbanker for being top new followers in my community this week 🙂 | insight by http://t.co/sern3wLA13 Aug 30, 2013
  • @ledbetreuters If you had your own website, & had a Google Page Rank over 5, u would get around two of those per week. Very pesky. Aug 30, 2013
  • RT @azizonomics: Nobel War Prize Aug 30, 2013
  • RT @ianbremmer: Knock knock. Who’s there? The international community. The international community who? Precisely. Aug 30, 2013
  • RT @treehcapital: Yet another reason to love New Zealand @pkedrosky: New Zealand bans software patents http://t.co/6ah7N84QtA Aug 29, 2013
  • Thanks @researchpuzzler @AndreCimini for being top engaged members in my community this week 🙂 | insight by http://t.co/sern3wLA13 Aug 26, 2013
  • @alisonforns And I see the glass as 70 fewer than 140. What a wonderful world! Aug 26, 2013
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