Post-luncheon address from Leszek Balcerowicz, Former Chairman, National Bank of Poland
Going to talk about the euro, problems and solutions. Eurozone masks a lot of variation in growth and productivity.
Baltics, Ireland may have suffered boom/bust but have on the whole grown well.
Sometimes fiscal crises lead to financial crises. Sometimes financial crises lead to fiscal crises.
Not, what can central banks do to constrain credit booms, but what can be done to constrain central banks? Also, how to de-politicize central banks.
Why were credit spreads so similar during the boom years of the Eurozone? (No clear answer given — I view it as naive speculation.)
Should not be trying European solutions to what are essentially national problems.
Economic models are flawed and do not consider the effects of unconventional monetary policy. Also neglect the effects of financial markets.
Fed is dictating monetary policy across the world. Any nation trying to tighten will see its export sector suffer. Asset bubbles will pop.
Finally, argues that bold policies must be tried if other policies have no chance of success.