Day: December 28, 2013

Warm up the Helicopter of Happiness

Warm up the Helicopter of Happiness

Here is a letter from a reader:

Hi David,

?Long-time reader of yours.? You put out some of the best blog content on the web and I am grateful for that.

I?ve got a question I?d hope you consider answering in the blog.? I?m almost embarrassed to ask it, for fear of appearing facile, but here goes:

Our economy is struggling with a lack of aggregate demand, low monetary velocity, and a whiff of deflation.? QE does not seem to be transmitting its monetary effects to the real economy, just helping to inflate asset prices instead.? So why wouldn?t we consider sending direct stimulus to households, similar to what we did in 2008-09, only on a much bigger scale?? Say there are 120MM households.? Send each one a $5k check, and if I?ve got the zeroes right, that?s a ?mere? $600B we?re borrowing to disburse ? about 60% of what the Fed is doing annually with QE.? Most of the money would recycle and multiply quickly to the economy (net of what gets allocated to debt paydown, and what gets banked by the well-off).? And due to some current one-times in the Federal budget, we?ve actually got a better balance sheet in the moment to do something with added borrowing/spending.?

Crazy thought, but these are uncommon times.? Curious what you think.?

Dear friend, I think about this in two ways: ethics and metaphysics.? The metaphysics are easy — yeah, let the Fed remit all of its seigniorage to the people rather than to the Treasury.? Far better than letting the government spend it.

But the ethics are touchy.? How do we define ethical taxation systems?? My view is that people should be taxed according to their increase in net worth, and at a flat rate, but with no ability to defer income from taxation.? Most wealthy people don’t care about tax rates because they can find ways to defer/reduce taxable income.? This is a major reason why you should distrust the Democrats, because their desire to raise tax rates would do little.? This is also a reason to distrust the GOP, because there is no decent reason to decrease tax rates.

We need to tighten up the definition of income in the US, and no longer allow citizens and businesses to defer income.? If we taxed all economic activity as it occurred we would have balanced budgets.

The rich aren’t paying enough in the US, not because of tax rates, but because they can hide their income.? That is the way that policy should proceed, to make the wealthy pay according to their increase in net worth.

I’ll write about this more later, but the main idea is to tax people proportionate to their increase in wealth.? That is the Bible’s solution for how people should give.

 

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Japan

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  • Japan World-Beating Stocks Seen Repeating Gains in 2014 http://t.co/v5QR4nVKd3 Analysts follow trends; they r wrong at turning points $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Abenomics Drives Japan Hedge Funds to World?s Top Performers http://t.co/fDmMBWIxgL Let’s c if Japan can survive the increase in debts $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Asia: From baby boom to bust http://t.co/eaDLDS3oAL Watch Japan 4a preview of what will happen across all of Asia; it won’t b pretty $$ Dec 28, 2013

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China

 

  • China Confronts Workforce Drop With Retirement-Age Delay http://t.co/TdsDKG1p5u China gets to the problem very late & way too small $$ $FXI Dec 26, 2013
  • China is so worried about its cash crunch that it banned the term http://t.co/y0eN3A58iB Worry when central bankers care about language $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • China Credit Squeeze Eases as Central Bank Resumes Using Regular Cash-Injection Tool http://t.co/D5UNiQuQSv Papers over solvency issues $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • China’s Pain Points http://t.co/Ry2XaZHYT8 underfunded health&pension systems; environment probs; water shortages; corruption; rigged courts Dec 26, 2013
  • China Promise Clashes With Clampdown on Foreign Business http://t.co/ycKPAWqGa2 They want the best of both worlds, and can’t get both $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • PBOC?s Opacity Leaves Markets Guessing Amid Cash Crunch http://t.co/TsgynBHdo6 No guess what PBOC policy will b, makin’ it up as they go $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • China Cash Crunch Pushes Up Short-Term Rates http://t.co/MgWmHwdQuC The fragility of the Chinese financial system comes into view $$ $FXI Dec 23, 2013
  • Was 2013 the Year We Lost China? http://t.co/Fmz3RixLW7 It’s difficult 2 say whether we ever “had” China, it pursues its own goals $$ $FXI Dec 23, 2013

 

PPACA / Obamacare

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  • Obamacare Hits Snag in States as US Site Finds Footing http://t.co/3q1SnLxu59 Surprised that some of the states would do worse than Feds $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Obamacare’s Web site Exchange Woes Trace to Cato’s Michael Cannon http://t.co/SDhb9sdATZ One Q is whether the natl exchange can subsidize $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • What to Do When ObamaCare Unravels http://t.co/w2iNS1HhWd Cute alternative 2 PPACA, but I think it could b even more expensive than PPACA $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Rule Change on Health Insurance Rattles Industry http://t.co/Fyntbs0rjS The lowball estimate of what Obamacare would cost comes back2bite $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Obama Repeals ObamaCare http://t.co/0RerlzDqA2 It was bad enough under Bush, y does Congress tolerate a president behaving like a king? $$ Dec 23, 2013

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Rest of the World

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  • Thai General Refuses to Rule Out Coup as Unrest Drags On http://t.co/PfqhKwIpSD A Thai friend of mine said military is needed in politics $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • BlackRock Buys Turkey Shares After Turmoil Spooks Markets http://t.co/bbcxmWIXHM $TUR down >26% in 2013 http://t.co/cHkL6E2TUd; $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Iranians Pile Into Stocks as Nuclear Deal Spurs 133% Gain http://t.co/mZ7J47vnPp Wall Street getting slow; no $IRAN ETF available yet $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Even in Straitened Times, Portugal Loves Its Bimby Cooking Robots http://t.co/j8a732IuKA Y isn’t this sold in the US? It does it all $$ $SPY Dec 26, 2013
  • Jihadists in Syria Draw Children of Muslims Who Settled in Europe http://t.co/r5suj7cZ6l Romantic youths want their lives 2b more than $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • UN to nearly double peace-keepers in South Sudan as violence explodes http://t.co/X9Z94O0mXF UN always increases malfeasance, bad 4 all $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Ukraine Upheaval Spurred by 28% Rates Limiting Buyers http://t.co/5VFiYvnpRk Capital flees when civil disturbances arise, thus high rates $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • US Plans to Ask UN for More Troops in Turbulent South Sudan http://t.co/I60iRC1Nmb UN is not a lot of help in situations like this $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Swiss Banks Employ Army of Advisers for US Amnesty Plan http://t.co/qRLXTt1JS7 Differing strategies as US exposure & reporting varies $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • South Sudan Refugees Swell As Americans Are Evacuated http://t.co/Iq2VxuFYNz Throw a bunch of warlords together, call it a govt & u get? $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Russia Crisis Haunts Deutsche Bank?s Smith Seeing China Bust http://t.co/nRm4PPTlvA Suspect a China debt crisis would not affect US $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Venezuela Devalues Bolivar for Tourist Dollars by 44% http://t.co/rOdpVu4xRd Almost 2 the point where the dollar will replace the bolivar $$ Dec 23, 2013

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NSA

 

  • Report on NSA ‘secret’ payments to RSA fuels encryption controversy http://t.co/1YTaHu4mfK Put in a backdoor so that NSA could access $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Edward Snowden, after months of NSA revelations, says his mission?s accomplished http://t.co/MdMFbSKaYK His life’s work is complete @ 29 $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • The One Big Question About RSA and Its Relationship With the NSA http://t.co/vR7GCsCa38 RSA builds “backdoor” 4 NSA 2 use, gets secret $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • NSA Struggles to Make Sense of Flood of Surveillance Data http://t.co/0gjztWYMSM Inside look at how data surveillance got out of control $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Finnish Security Researcher Cancels RSA Talk in Protest http://t.co/v0hsM2y548 RSA deliberately built faulty random number generator 4NSA $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Snowden Criticizes US Panel Overseeing Surveillance http://t.co/kLI7XmeKlN Panel exists 2whitewash bad behavior of intelgnc establishment $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Market Impact

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  • A Fund That Invests Like Buffett http://t.co/u9duSaR9oA I’m impressed; I’m putting their firm on my 13F list to track them quarterly $$ $SPY Dec 28, 2013
  • Our Outlook for the Stock Market http://t.co/N1IV6w32dj Morningstar gives their relatively bullish view of what 2014 will hold 4 stocks $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Muniland?s ?Best of 2013? http://t.co/KhaiAVmjzg @catelong is one of the best on municipal bonds & here is her summary of 2013 $$ $MUB Dec 28, 2013
  • 40% of fund managers surveyed r overweight euro-area equities http://t.co/vPYGQFvagC Bull Calls United in Europe, Strategists C 12% Gain $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • So, I’m skeptical of the article in the last tweet, unless the managers r long term investors & value players b/c flexible $$ runs in crises Dec 26, 2013
  • Half & Half: Why Rowing Works http://t.co/h46bRNMLAR A 50-50 mix of stocks & bonds w/rebalancing outperforms 100% stocks in choppy mkts $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • You Too Can Invest Like Warren Buffett?Maybe http://t.co/FU6MZzsmyj U would have to able to predict moats & not lever up too much $$ #tricky Dec 26, 2013
  • Investment Strategy Rises From Obscurity http://t.co/O8yIIqjTpZ US Govt loses $7B/yr on MLPs; Article features $IEP $CVR $CVRR $KMP $ETP $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Wall Street Landlord Loses Round 1 in Ohio School Tax Fight http://t.co/FgKOrnq283 Maybe school district should pass landlord profits tax $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Companies Binge on Share Buybacks http://t.co/JyW5QaRRP4 2% divs +3% buybacks ~5% shareholder yield. Is that enough reward 4 equity risk? $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • The TSC Streetside Chat: Robert Wilson, Part 2 http://t.co/IzzNlzE776 13 years old but prescient; he died in a suicide yesterday $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Financial Scammers Increasingly Target Elderly Americans http://t.co/raIvTr0B9a Tonight’s topic @ Aleph Blog – watch out 4 older friends $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • How Investigators Untangled the ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ Scandal http://t.co/AJwcx4XONC Penny stocks, overtrading, market manipulation $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • The Buyback Rally http://t.co/ZkBJsWBpe4 From @eddyelfenbein : 2% dividend yield + 3% buyback yield = 5% total yield on the market $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Hunt for Returns Prompts IPO Renaissance as US Leads Way http://t.co/dVURwoYGkn Capital will b deployed unproductively as the rally ends $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Secret Handshakes Greet Frat Brothers on Wall Street http://t.co/0t2zWLzL1A Part of what led to the crisis- connections&no smarts $$ $MS $GS Dec 23, 2013
  • Junk Loans Top ?08 Record as Safeguards Stripped http://t.co/9uZAwYeEaN Amazing how much biz u can do if u just leave aside risk control $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • The lavish lifestyles of placement agents http://t.co/0NU8cD5yl0 With pension monies, there is almost never a reason to pay commissions $$ Dec 22, 2013

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Companies & Industries

 

  • Twitter Posts Biggest-Ever Decline After Macquarie Downgrade http://t.co/zopyq0AKeb $TWTR needs 2show real income to validate valuation $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Twitter?s Ballooning Market Cap http://t.co/vm1xl8MRwb Every sell is a good sell. At worst, wait for relative strength to shift $TWTR $$ Dec 27, 2013
  • GM Robo-Glove to Meat Hook Smooth Human-Machine Teamwork http://t.co/G0dbUgbXIc The future of manufacturing: human-robot teams $$ $SPY $TLT Dec 26, 2013
  • $AMZN Makes Up to Customers After Backup Hits $UPS http://t.co/UUNGKJVJvI It is possible to overload the shipping system; $20 giftcards $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Panasonic Debt Goes to First From Worst on Revamp http://t.co/MsBhqKmMee Amazing what can happen when a mgmt team rationalizes businesses $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Bug Bites Cut Florida Orange Crop to Lowest in 2 Decades http://t.co/0muOIlUFmI Fortunately Brazil is having a good crop; citrus greening $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Reactors on Slow Road to Demolition http://t.co/jd3sbJiMHk Much hangs on creating a long-term site for storing nuclear waste $$ $D $EXC $ETR Dec 26, 2013
  • Twitter?s Ballooning Market Cap http://t.co/mhik2Xp8Nn The price discounts more than the future, it discounts the hereafter $$ $TWTR $SPY Dec 26, 2013
  • If Cadillac Keeps Growing Like This, It’ll Be America’s Bestselling Luxury Car http://t.co/YnijUf5SiC We r talking $GM; they will fail $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Wind Farms in Maine Stir a Power Struggle http://t.co/lhpmyeD75l I’m sorry, most people know that they don’t own their view, give it up $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • V.F. Corporation Common Stock Stock Chart http://t.co/5zEipUBEWf; Interesting 2c @Bloomberg & @yahoofinance mess up on $VFC ‘s 4 for 1 split $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Financial Sector

 

  • Banking Needs a New Regulatory Structure http://t.co/tgx7X4lSrq Rather, end interstate branching, & hand bank regulation back2 the states $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Will the Regulatory Screws Loosen in 2014? http://t.co/vxkuqAUCe9 Both sides r dreaming. Neither the regulators or banks r giving up $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • FDIC Recommendations to Curb Interest Rate Risk http://t.co/uRJw5tTcNS But will they bifurcate repo 2reveal the interest rate risk inside $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Examiners-in-Residence Should Be Pulled Out of Megabanks http://t.co/UcrvNoAmzu They will resist pressure better if they work together $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • How Thomas Curry Is Trying to Redeem the OCC http://t.co/iIbFR7Lqqv U can get a lot done in DC if u don’t care who gets the credit $$ $TLT Dec 26, 2013
  • Target?s Redcard Proves Less Vulnerable to Data Breach Than Bank Cards http://t.co/GDBN5KHvsK Added security makes the card harder2hack $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Angry Bart Takes His Parting Shot http://t.co/Wi5YChLExh How Wall St fights regulation: Direct kill; defund; exemptions; litigate $$ $GS $MS Dec 26, 2013
  • Why the US Leaves Its Credit-Card System Vulnerable to Fraud http://t.co/QN4egphZ8c Expensive to add more security & change hardware $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Politics & Policy

 

  • Deaton on US inequality and the Pareto criterion http://t.co/pdhMXzehju Hard to equalize; rich families have more resources 4 their kids $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Moguls Rent South Dakota Addresses to Dodge Taxes Forever http://t.co/4IYvqqrr66 Our own tax haven in Black Hills; set up a trust in SD $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Government Pulls in Reins On Disability Judges http://t.co/psmXNK7fXZ Disability Trust fund goes bust in 2016, judges urged 2b stricter $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Five Lessons of 2013, Guaranteed to Be Forgotten http://t.co/dCXEniOv8U I like # 3. The law of the land is subject to executive action. $$ Dec 26, 2013

 

Other

  • The marriage gap: Think again, men http://t.co/T45sDRYDFC People who r single rely on government more, v. married who rely on each other $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Two trends I’m watching next year http://t.co/Cx1gKdLaSR Cultural changes may limit HH formation & much capital formation is intangible $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Detroit Wins $55M in Concessions From 2 Banks http://t.co/wOEsceACAR Derivatives around munis usually have something crooked w/them $$ $MUB Dec 26, 2013
  • The LEET Pure PC – A PS4 And Xbox One Killer For Your Entertainment Room http://t.co/3mDBrtTHb0 Pretty cool. Powerful, flexible & stylish $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • White Chocolate, a Blank Slate for Flavor, Wins Converts http://t.co/WflwRKYYJg A platform to allow other flavors to show their stuff $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Colleges Trim Staffing Bloat http://t.co/bRtEMsnfqG Finally the bloat of making college into “country clubs” starts to decline $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Most Twitter User Have Few Followers – Study http://t.co/ghZfDqVjUJ U have 2get2 over 2000 followers b4u can b certain that any1 listens $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • A Pill to Cure Addiction? http://t.co/ORYsOeoNXN “huge amount of progress understanding what drives alcoholism & makes it difficult2stop” $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Are Cranberries a Better Way to Long Life? http://t.co/o0YJDa0Uhy The antioxidants in cranberries may prolong your life $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Fake Knee Surgery as Good as Real Procedure Study Finds http://t.co/Ucvi50nsqW Result Likely2Fuel Debate Over Common Orthopedic Operation $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Study: Eating Nuts in Pregnancy May Lower Child’s Allergy Risk http://t.co/X2IQwj1QfN Something new 4 children 2 blame their mothers over $$ Dec 24, 2013
  • Almond Spike Hits Germany’s Markets http://t.co/DpEJXxwWir Bad weather in California & Spain & demand in China push prices 2 record highs $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Unwanted Memories Erased in Electroconvulsive Therapy Experiment http://t.co/nfo3lDmHDH Great. Another way to remove humanity from people $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Wrong, Etc.

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  • Wrong: The Air of Unreality in NSA Reform http://t.co/8psN0iSI1r Being a free country means we have 2 allow 4 possibility of bad events $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Disagree:Snowden Says Surveillance Is Worse Than Orwell Envisioned http://t.co/2AEb3tNk0G It may b more pervasive but it is low intensity $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Central Error: that inflation & real growth are positively correlated [1970s] http://t.co/yLXk2UnQWu Dec 23, 2013
  • Wrong: GOP lawmaker: NSA spying in US could have prevented 9/11 http://t.co/cHAnKSOsqY At best, fighting the last war; live free or die $$ Dec 23, 2013

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Comments, Retweets & Replies

 

  • Commented on The Economist | The 2016 election: Flight of the Huckabees http://t.co/Yh3tym96OO Dec 27, 2013
  • ‘ @SonofGodMovie The 2nd Commandment says it’s wrong to portray God. Your movie makes Jesus a mere man; you can’t portray his divinity $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • @ReformedBroker Nailed it. Dec 25, 2013
  • RT @minefornothing: The economy of Cyprus is now also experiencing a major credit crunch http://t.co/uRMUjaUCyf Dec 24, 2013
  • http://t.co/60MjQwGbNz “It’s the thought that counts, which is worth more than money.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Ij9Ttfesye $$ Dec 24, 2013
  • RT @michaelsantoli: Trust me, in Dec ’87 no one said “Only 1/3 done” RT @CiovaccoCapital: Bull Markets can last a long time – see 82-’00 h? Dec 24, 2013

 

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