Much as I appreciate those who like what I write at this blog, I don’t write to be loved. I don’t write to be hated, either. I am sensitive to what people think of me, but not to the degree that it changes what I write.
I may have nonconsensus views on:
- The Federal Reserve
- Social Security & Medicare (and their cousins around the globe)
- The current Bull Market in Stocks and Corporate Bonds
- Long Treasuries
- and more…..
But I write what I write to disclose the truth. I am an active equity manager, but I encourage people to use passive investing via index funds, unless they can find a manager who can reliably obtain outperformance.
I don’t blog for economic advantage. If I wanted to do that, I could channel a wide variety of ideas on investing that are popular, but I know are marginal at best in terms of effectiveness.
Some friends of mine have told me, “Why don’t you write about companies that you own, or companies that look attractive to you?”
I’ve been burned by doing that. For every ten that you get right, you get the same response from every one you get wrong. As with most of the web, the complainers dominate. That’s why I don’t trot out many individual stock ideas. It’s not that I don’t have them, but I only share them as a group, not as a single idea, most of the time.
I’m here to tell the truth, even if it cuts against my own short-term economic interests. Most of the time, I adjust my portfolio so that it is ready for everything, but sometimes I delay, because I know that changes in the market usually happen slowly.
I do not write to be popular. I write to change the consensus, unlikely as that will be. Finance is a perverse area of life where fear and greed take over. And with academics, they have these lame models that are fit for Vulcans (maybe) but not humans (and certainly not Ferengi).
We need new models that reflect the fear-greed cycle, and make valuation a significant input in risk assessments.
I’m not in this for love; I only want to change the way that we view investment decisions.