Day: May 17, 2014

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

China

  • China Slowdown Deepens?http://t.co/sKueyT7Dhz?This isn’t a bad thing if China is giving up on forced industrialization through borrowing $$?May 17, 2014
  • Carnage on China Roads Shows Dark Side of Electric Bikes?http://t.co/HT3l0WKCzl?Going 25MPH in crowded conditions w/limited control, ouch $$?May 17, 2014
  • The Golf Boom in China?http://t.co/PcsnaFPFwy?Illegal 2build new courses, so they start as health clubs that have golf as a therapy $$ $FXI?May 17, 2014
  • Chinese Bad Loans Rise Most Since 2005 as Economy Slows?http://t.co/9x7XqlTqfh?Will the Chinese Govt allow failure or do large bailouts? $$?May 17, 2014
  • China Central Bank Calls for Faster Home Lending in Slump?http://t.co/Eo8SE2NnTi?China asks their banks 2b more aggressive in lending $$ :(?May 15, 2014
  • US Is No. 1, China Is So Yesterday?http://t.co/afQ16kIxBT?A little over the top, but correct, the US has many strengths that PPP can’t c $$?May 14, 2014
  • Xi Says China Must Adapt to ?New Normal? of Slower Growth?http://t.co/NN6gCTZzKV?Maybe, just maybe, China is serious raising consumption $$?May 12, 2014
  • Goldman to Citigroup Miss World?s Worst Selloff in China?http://t.co/KhZyggswLK?Long-term, this is a good thing. Short-term will b bumpy $$?May 14, 2014

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Market Dynamics

  • Fooled by IRRs (Yale, Schwarzman?s Cases)?http://t.co/i8mrHR2RGD?With private equity, IRRs overstate returns received $$?May 17, 2014
  • Miller Wagers Gundlach?s Bearish Housing Position Loses?http://t.co/hAn8cFrC6F?Y Miller lost so badly during the crisis, no debt fear $$?May 17, 2014
  • Young, tech-savvy investors entrusting their portfolios 2 ‘robo advisors’ |http://t.co/yzeLARhbdy?Depends on how good underlying model is $$?May 17, 2014
  • From two secondaries, Cramer sees only one opportunity?http://t.co/URF5B1zjsy?Secondary IPOs validate levels & show real demand 4an asset $$?May 17, 2014
  • Do Alternative Investments Belong in Most Individuals’ Portfolios??http://t.co/cyZlROoxVe?No. 2 much illiquidity, opaqueness & high fees $$?May 17, 2014
  • US Stocks Decline as Russell 2000 Nears Correction?http://t.co/gG4tJF62UT?R2K down ~10% now from 3/18 high close $IWM $SPY $$ $IWN $IWO?May 15, 2014
  • Why retail investors almost always get burned?http://t.co/4lOEilO7Da?Retail $$ chases performance, and institutions aren’t much better $$?May 14, 2014
  • The Retirement Fund That People Set, Forget and Regret?http://t.co/HeIlJ84g8z?Target date funds usually ignore mkt over- & under-pricing $$?May 13, 2014
  • A New Ruling on IRA Rollovers?http://t.co/ldVnH4kpXm?Abuse of IRA rollovers leads to a tougher interpretation of regs; transfers r fine $$?May 13, 2014
  • The Problem with AAII Screens?http://t.co/2LH26F8MU5?Explaining the seemingly high returns from the Piotroski screen –> 2few stock pass $$?May 13, 2014
  • Low Yields, The Same Risks, and Rising Leverage?http://t.co/dsnoJpEg3L?listen to @DavidSchawel he is intelligent. Low yields r a warning $$?May 13, 2014
  • Hated Stocks Unlock Market as Analysts Prove No Guide to Gains?http://t.co/i03EjQPyUv?Choppy, trendless, themeless, wandering, not so bad $$?May 12, 2014
  • In Gundlach’s `No Normal’ World, U.S. Treasuries Just Can’t Lose?http://t.co/NnaCuthQTi?Long liabilities need income in a low rate world $$?May 12, 2014
  • America’s Retirement Delusion?http://t.co/jwCcJSz29Y?@Ritholtz explains y most people r deluded over retirement; the math is inexorable $$?May 12, 2014

 

Rest of the World

  • Portugal Laden With $293B Debt Exits Bailout Plan?http://t.co/CROhSi5zF2?Third-highest level of Debt/GDP in the EU; what if trouble comes $$?May 17, 2014
  • Japanese Hotshots Become Moms, Hit Dead End; Abe Weighs Foreign Maids to Help?http://t.co/ssozzyOXxe?Cheat kids of high-quality attention $$?May 17, 2014
  • NASA Asked How to Keep Space Station Going Without Russia?http://t.co/TYt9TOb9a0?A cost of a world that stops co-operating $$ #peacedividend?May 17, 2014
  • Modi-Led Bloc Wins Biggest India Mandate in Three Decades?http://t.co/szukEcJgKz?Deregulate, deregulate, & after that, deregulate $$ $SPY?May 17, 2014
  • Today’s Good News From Japan Is Terrible?http://t.co/CN61HuZB98?New taxes will slow economy, while inflation squeezes real incomes $$ $FXY?May 17, 2014
  • Global Growth Worries Climb?http://t.co/YuC9Vn1JdQ?Once deleveraging is complete, growth will resume, but govts would rather lever more $$?May 17, 2014
  • Goodbye, Crisis, as Bankers Start Lending in Portugal?http://t.co/FxGJccXsTy?What has survived is in better shape, way to go $$?May 15, 2014
  • Putin Emboldened on Instability Arc by EU Defense Divide?http://t.co/2koad3VT1A?What does the EU want 2b if it grows up? $$ $MACRO $FXE?May 15, 2014
  • Asian Junk Left Behind as Defaults Expose Cracks?http://t.co/O9b0R0oEBg?Hi debt levels, falling real estate prices, defaults -> yields up $$?May 14, 2014
  • Scots Seen Slipping Away Makes U.K. Seek Silver Bullet?http://t.co/5iSf5H3Ekg?How much UK debt will Scotland take & how large a tax rise $$?May 14, 2014
  • Former BOJ Policy Maker Sees Japan Inflation Dilemma?http://t.co/KhDKbDKxbz?Japan is a bug in search of a windshield; inflation no friend $$?May 14, 2014
  • Wives Revolt as India Election Booze Leaves Trail of Widows?http://t.co/iltIzfmUiF?Males get bribed w/alcohol 2 sell their votes. Some OD $$?May 12, 2014
  • Will The Last Businessman To Leave France Turn Out The Lights??http://t.co/0V71b3DWCJ?W/French businesses being acquired, what’s left? $$?May 13, 2014

 

Companies & Industries

  • Jill Abramson, Arthur Sulzberger, and the New York Times: What Went Wrong??http://t.co/vsOPjL4nGF?She goofed through poor salary research $$?May 17, 2014
  • New York Times Internal Report Painted Dire Digital Picture?http://t.co/qn3SEx8Zkw?$NYT figures out they r becoming less relevant $$ #doh?May 17, 2014
  • Bakken Crude Is Highly Volatile, Oil Study Shows?http://t.co/VNDvhdEeV5?Should b a way 2 extract & sell valuable ethane, propane & butane $$?May 15, 2014
  • Lehman a Gift That Keeps Giving for Paulson to King Street?http://t.co/lWxpljSkvI?A rising tide lifts all boats, flotsam and jetsam too $$?May 14, 2014
  • Yes, we’re in a tech bubble. Here’s how I know it?http://t.co/pESveWuIE3?Adam Lashinsky shares his qualitative signs for concern $$ $XLK?May 14, 2014
  • Where’s the Fertilizer? Farmers Grow Worried?http://t.co/qFNbHCidhd?Increased us of rail 2deliver oil snarls grain & fertilizer shipments $$?May 14, 2014

 

Finance

  • Congratulations to Class of 2014, Most Indebted Ever?http://t.co/tN3r70qKlO?Student debts r growing, but not the salaries of graduates $$?May 17, 2014
  • Why America’s Middle-Class Housing Crunch Is Here 2 Stay?http://t.co/gjGhVcvqd7?Affordability has fallen in almost every major metro area $$?May 17, 2014
  • Big Banks Said to Improve Loan Servicing Under Mortgage Accord?http://t.co/WFvD7yhP1u?Interesting 2c some better debtor treatment emerge $$?May 15, 2014

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US Politics & Policy

  • Detroit Creditors Seek to Defend Pension Debt in Lawsuit?http://t.co/PZHRjsDrGf?Detroit attempts 2cheat pensioners & FGIC, & not sell art $$?May 17, 2014
  • More Detroits Are on the Way?http://t.co/f53SjxDxLh?Even as pension bombs tick, cities and states still borrow far beyond their means. $$?May 17, 2014
  • Huszar: Geithner Drove Me From NY Fed?http://t.co/i8R1zqenvY?Nuanced thought on Geithner’s strengths &weaknesses; my thoughts in comments $$?May 15, 2014
  • FCC Net-Neutrality Plan Sparks Response Before Release?http://t.co/nGXZjaSXs5?Paid deals, few paid deals, or no favoritism of web traffic $$?May 15, 2014
  • Income Tax Yo-Yo Hits US States?http://t.co/ipMtG8FyRF?Budgets should b set assuming zero taxes from capital gains and housing sales $$ TLT?May 15, 2014
  • How Hoenig, Norton Wield Influence on FDIC Board?http://t.co/ZIbcn5X46X?They hold intelligent positions & try 2 get most of them accepted $$?May 14, 2014
  • Fannie, Freddie Regulator Signals Broad Shift in Housing Policy?http://t.co/GS4ZNhVxqL?& http://t.co/fsVs5Ev2Ta A bad idea that won’t die $$?May 13, 2014
  • Book Review: ‘Stress Test’ by Timothy Geithner?http://t.co/zv8uHW9ilQ?Didn’t foresee mortgage crisis coming or its severity $$ $TLT $IEF?May 12, 2014
  • Rahm Emanuel Faces New Test With Chicago Pension Crisis?http://t.co/29uvyvAs5z?Inexorable pension math forces hard decisions & fights $$?May 12, 2014

 

US Economy

  • Why It’s So Hard to Get a Job?http://t.co/yZkgxZ9gaZ?@vpostrel provides some analysis on the skills mismatch. Employers would rather wait $$?May 15, 2014
  • Producer price gain offers cautionary note on inflation?http://t.co/9QVZ9Y8Ly3?Remember, inflation expectations r “well contained” $$ $TLT?May 15, 2014
  • US Consumer Prices Rise at Strongest Rate in Nearly a Year?http://t.co/TrPrAirLiE?Remember, inflation expectations are “well contained” $$?May 15, 2014
  • Income Inequality Is Higher In Democratic Districts Than Republican Ones?http://t.co/6T7SOBZlHU?Wealthier districts tend 2b more unequal $$?May 13, 2014
  • America on the Move Becomes Stay-Home Nation for Young?http://t.co/QEwbemllyW?Millennials move < , delay HH formation, buying homes, jobs $$?May 12, 2014

 

Other

  • Meet the Italian Who Beat Google to Web Search — and Gave It Away??http://t.co/A8ZuICxjwe?Meet man who inspired Larry Page &Google $$ $GOOG?May 17, 2014
  • The Problem for Sports Parents: Overspending?http://t.co/uhyMC0Tr0D?Note to parents: Sunk costs are sunk. Think it through b4 u spend $$?May 14, 2014
  • Inside Google’s Driverless Car: The Unused Kill Button?http://t.co/3AqBaTvXug?What it’s like to ride in one of the driverless cars $$ $GOOG?May 14, 2014

 

Wrong

  • Wrong: Bring Back the Girls?Quietly?http://t.co/dulFTAnUfp?In foreign conflicts, let the rest of the world grow up & handle it themselves $$?May 17, 2014
  • Wrong:Mortgages Should Be Easier to Get?http://t.co/OefAVCc1s7?Didn’t learn from the last crisis; 2 much mtge debt makes housing unstable $$?May 15, 2014
  • Wrong: Yes, the World Needs More MBAs. Here?s Why?http://t.co/MFHnBn7cc7?We would get more improvement by fixing elementary schools $$ $TLT?May 14, 2014

 

?Retweets, Replies & Comments

  • RT @DavidSchawel: “Average yields on CCC & below debt worldwide fell to 8.58% this week, the same investors were getting 3 years ago on BB ??May 17, 2014
  • RT @matt_levine: I know it’s journalism and stuff, but I’m really glad my job isn’t doxxing smart helpful anonymous working finance people ??May 15, 2014
  • “A better article would provide enough analysis 2say what the ETFs were doing w/the derivatives.” ? David_Merkel?http://t.co/qy0PdPz5Ap?$$?May 14, 2014
  • @felixsalmon I really doubt this, as does Charlie Munger.?May 13, 2014

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On Analyzing 13Fs

On Analyzing 13Fs

In the fourth quarter of 2011, I decided that I needed to analyze the 13F filings of major investors who I thought were bright. ?The first stage was looking at track records, and then finding the 13F filings. ?Some investment management companies ?make them difficult to find. ?And, prior to three quarters ago, formatting issues allowed managers to make it a lot more difficult to compare 13F data across managers.

But now data must be submitted in a uniform format, using extensible markup language [XML]. ?That can be fed into Excel with little effort, and much of the prior data scrubbing goes away. ?That data scrubbing took an extra day at least.

That said, the central challenge for someone that does not have a Bloomberg terminal is converting the CUSIP numbers [Committee on Uniform Securities Identification Procedures numbers] into ticker symbols. ?Those numbers are owned by the American Banking Association, and they charge a pretty penny to use them. ?I asked the folks at AAII [American Association of Individual Investors] to include a CUSIP field ?in their deluxe stock screening package, and they said something like, “Are you kidding? ?Do you know what the American Bankers Association charges for it?!”

When I started, I asked my bright, then 12-year old daughter to build up our own CUSIP to Ticker database. ?She worked for many hours, producing a significant database for which I paid her well. ?Since that time, I have maintained that database.

After I download via XML all of the manager reports that I want to follow, I sort out all of the CUSIPs I have never seen before, and find their tickers.

What used to take a week now takes a little more than a day in total, start to finish.

One thing that I do differently than some others in analyzing 13F filings is that I am interested in what percentage of the market capitalization the positions represent, and how large the net increase in positions is relative to market capitalization.

After that I look at three things:

  1. What are the largest holdings as a group as a whole as a percentage of market cap,
  2. What are the largest net increases in holdings as a group as a whole as a percentage of market cap, and
  3. What ideas are new, that no one invested in last quarter, and two or more invested in this quarter?

Now I am not saying that I have the formula right, but this feels right to me. ?I invite readers to suggest their own ways of screening through 13Fs to determine the most worthy investment ideas.

But before I leave for the evening, another boon: here are the tickers generated by my 13F methods this quarter:

AAL, ADT, ALSN, AN, BCS, BIOS, BRX, CAM, CAR, CCI, CLH, COH, CSLT, CSTM, CTRP, CTXS, CYH, DAR, DDC, DSW, DV, DVA, ENDP, ENT, EPE, ESRT, EVTC, FLXN, GHC, GLPI, GME, GS, HMHC, HOLX, HW, IBP, IDIX, JNPR, KATE, KIN, KN, KSU, LNN, LPNT, MDR, MTOR, NADL, NCLH, NMIH, NUAN, PAH, PBF, PHH, PLCM, POST, QEP, QLIK, RCII, RDN, REIS, RFMD, RH, RLD, RPXC, SBAC, SC, SFUN, SNMX, STAY, SWI, SYMC, TDG, TLM, TLMR, TQNT, TRLA, TRW, TWI, USG, VECO, VIPS, VOCS, VOXX, VRTX, WPP, XL, XONE, YRCW, ZINC

After the last few articles, you know almost all of the companies that I am considering investing in versus my current portfolio. ?Have look as you like, and maybe a few of them are good investment ideas.

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