Day: May 24, 2014

On How to be Valuable in the Investment Business

On How to be Valuable in the Investment Business

I love my readers. ?Here is another question from a reader:

I would appreciate your advice on how to learn more about investing and how to make myself useful to people in the business as a step towards getting in.

There are two questions here:

  1. How to learn more about investing?
  2. How to make yourself more valuable to prospective employers (so that you might be hired)?

So let’s answer them:

How to learn more about investing?

There are three main answers here:

  1. Study the classics
  2. Study areas where there are current problems
  3. Read widely

When I talk about the classics, I am talking about the writings of Ben Graham, Buffett, Munger, Phil Fisher, and notable investors who have spilled their theories to the world. ?Also men like Seth Klarman, Howard Marks, Ray Dalio, George Soros, Bill Gross, Jeffrey Gundlach and other clever investors who understand the markets well.

Second, if there are current problems in the market, do your research, and try to understand them well. ?This may take more effort, because current problems are not well-understood, or they would have been solved already.

The correct answer is not immediately obvious. ?Prior to the crisis, it is a minority view. ?After the crisis, everyone knew it would happen 😉 .

Try to view the markets in a comprehensive way. ?Think of the buyer and the seller, and their motives. ? ?Look for minority opinions, and analyze them — maybe that have it right. ?Most of the time, you will throw their opinions away, but in rare cases you might find something valuable.

Finally, read widely. ?Try to understand the changing economy. and where value is being added where current valuations don’t reflect it. ?Understand the economic world, and dedicate time to it. ?I dedicated an hour par day while I was an actuary to understanding all manner of investments for ten years before I had my first job in investing at age 38.

And read economic history. ?It is very valuable to understand how things worked in the past, because it offers clues to those of us in the present who don’t think “It’s Different This Time.”

How to make yourself more valuable to prospective employers (so that you might be hired)?

First, prepare yourself. ?If you are not good at speaking extemporaneously, practice the things that you will say in an interview. ?Think about the most likely questions, and likely variations, and have your answers ready. ?Rehearse these answer in front of a mirror, and do it many times, until you have it down cold. (solid).

Second, do your research on the firm, and understand its problems. ?You don’t have to have the whole answer, but if in the interview, you understand the challenges, and have some idea of how they might be addressed, you will impress those interviewing you. ?You have done the homework; you are more than capable of analyzing other tough issues.

Third, be willing to question the received wisdom, and suggest solutions that are abnormal. ?So long as you don’t sound like an idiot, this will do one of two things:

  1. You will come up with a clever idea that no one else has thought of, or,
  2. You will show yourself to be willing to think more broadly than most do. ?Remember, it only takes one significant insight to establish a career. ?Of course, more is better, but one significant insight will do a lot.

Fourth, be good with the basics. ?Understand the basics of investing well. ?Just as a kid should know his 100 addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division facts cold, so should investors know the basics of investing without much effort.

Fifth, give it your all. ?Show dedication beyond what is required. ?I’m not asking you to kill yourself, I did this while raising a family of eight children. ?But whatever the situation is, give it your best, even if you have to take some of the work home.

If you do these things, you will be very valuable to the firm that you serve. ?Even more, you will be valuable to many firms that might like to hire you.

So make yourself ?valuable, and prosper.

 

SEC Filings for Humans

SEC Filings for Humans

I would carry around a 3.5″ floppy disk in my briefcase while I worked in center city Philadelphia. ?The years were 1994-96, and getting data over the internet was still in its infancy. ?Even Bloomberg terminals did not yet have data from EDGAR.

If I was efficient with my actuarial work, I would occasionally wave bye to my colleagues early, and walk over to the Philadelphia Public Library to use the electronic resources they had for analyzing stocks. ?I would find articles on various stocks that I had interest in, and I would save them to the floppy disk for later review. ?After a while, I discovered EDGAR which had the required data that companies would file with the SEC. ?Now there was more data to analyze.

I’m not sure when, but eventually the SEC set up its own website for EDGAR. ?And a great website it is — I probably use it twice a day at least. ?But could it be better?

I sometimes say that I have the best readers in the world, and this is a case where a reader tipped me off to a website that has taken EDGAR data to a whole new level.

[Applause]

There is a lot at this site, and it is the result of a lot of open source software work.

I can’t fully do justice to all that this site does, but let me try to describe it through a series of questions. ?Do you want to:

And much much more… ?I found amusing the pages that showed filings plotted against stock price over time, and I decided to look at Tower Group. ?My, but how the then President, Chairman & CEO, sold stock as things were falling apart in September 2013.

I will be using this site in the future. ?It takes EDGAR to a new level by stratifying data in a wide number of ways, and correlates it with a variety of external data. ?Very useful, and I offer my thanks to those who created it.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Market Impact?

  • Giving Yourself an Investing Makeover?http://t.co/u1MmwlWiKP?@jasonzweigwsj describes Guy Spier & his efforts 2b a more rational investor $$?May 24, 2014
  • The Bearish Signs Junk Buyers Reject in Stoking ?14 Rally?http://t.co/xsYEJeKTnU?BBs beat CCCs amid a falling Russell 2000 index $$ #odd?May 23, 2014
  • Penny Stocks Like Latteno Foods Rally, Fueling Big-Dollar Dreams?http://t.co/IiqCWeAyOW?Fascinating 2c this amid a pullback in small caps $$?May 23, 2014
  • Buffett Too Rich for Buffett Is Sign Bargains Are Gone?http://t.co/cbjQ0MDmSR?I’m still finding some cheap stocks but they r unusual $$ $SPY?May 23, 2014
  • For Sale: 20% Stake in Hedge Fund. Terms: Complicated.?http://t.co/kDoik1H4LT??You don?t want to be wearing someone else?s underwear.? $$?May 23, 2014
  • Boomers Cash In as Bull Market Aids Exodus From Workforce?http://t.co/uKRIfO4qMQ?Asset illusions delude Boomers who think they r rich $$?May 23, 2014
  • Wall Street Finds New Subprime With 125% Business Loans?http://t.co/USvBIvP5Vj?The businesses would get better rates on Prosper $$ #dumb?May 23, 2014
  • Debt Rises in Leveraged Buyouts Despite Warnings?http://t.co/6T8TIpdxWc?Debt makes financial systems less flexible; depend on fixed pmts $$?May 21, 2014
  • Chasing Yield, Investors Plow Into Junk Bonds?http://t.co/lWFufDu7Hy?Yields have never been lower 4 CCC-rated debts $$?May 21, 2014

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Rest of the World

  • What China Property Crash? Economists See Growth Bump?http://t.co/kcXGitJH1l?Economists c new empty buildings & mark up GDP $$ $FXI #FTL?May 23, 2014
  • Putin?s Singapore Dream Costs Crimea Banks and Burgers?http://t.co/OmmtpYDB7G?Singapore is not so much created by laws but by ppl culture $$?May 23, 2014
  • Russia, China Sign $400B Gas Deal After Decade of Talks?http://t.co/4k8PSE5NrM?The infrastructure must b created 2 make this work; not ez $$?May 23, 2014
  • Brazil World Cup Win Risks Stock Drop in Boon to Rousseff?http://t.co/dPb8GVbtSZ?Brazil wins, Rousseff win odds rise, stocks will fall $$?May 23, 2014
  • BlackRock Has Cut Portugal Bond Holdings Over Past Couple of Weeks?http://t.co/U3CuYpUu81?Some Emerging-Market Debt > Euro-Zone Bonds $$?May 23, 2014
  • Norway Loses Reputation as Stable Investment as Firms Recoil?http://t.co/fqQkiM2H3k?Tax 2 highly & businesses run away $$?May 21, 2014
  • It’s a Good Time to Globalize Your Stock Portfolio?http://t.co/8pqTAwFbqj?Many foreign companies r trade cheaper than US stocks $$ $SPY $EFA?May 21, 2014
  • UK House Prices Rise to Record High in April?http://t.co/vo6gYZNlAQ?B sure 2add wealthy foreigners buying in London as investment/hedge $$?May 19, 2014
  • Bank of England’s Mark Carney Highlights Housing Market’s Threat to UK Economy?http://t.co/5XOwH0cIsJ?100% of all UK mtges r short-dated $$?May 19, 2014
  • Good Time To Be A Farmer In China??http://t.co/04V9YEmSQm?China aggressively pushing crop insurance, & larger scale agriculture $$ $FXI $SPY?May 19, 2014

Energy

  • Without Keystone XL?http://t.co/qpDcgET7J3?Economic & public health costs of forgoing a new oil pipeline $$ {Sound of oil train derailing}?May 24, 2014
  • Secrecy of Oil-by-Train Shipments Causes Concern Across the US?http://t.co/knapJHOx1k?Butane, propane & ethane should be removed b4 shpng $$?May 23, 2014
  • Oil Nations Put Out Welcome Mat for Western Companies?http://t.co/cvarvyMDCt?If u make the cost of drilling2high, fewer bbls get produced $$?May 19, 2014

 

US Politics & Policy

  • How Timothy Geithner failed his stress test?http://t.co/qSu9V6oZvX?When @rortybomb & I agree on something, that is notable $$ #housingbubble?May 23, 2014
  • Meet Jessica Rosenworcel, the FCC Swing Vote?http://t.co/VtIzieSnqI?Marches to her own drummer, willing to cut deals 4 the greater good $$?May 23, 2014
  • How to Turn Homes Back Into Piggy Banks?http://t.co/fB9PTlBwxZ?Housing Personal Savings Acct & Equity Principal Tax Credit; elim mtge ded $$?May 23, 2014
  • NJ Gov. Christie under fire for cutting pension payments to state workers?http://t.co/rGwAKla3aT?Definite mistake; cashflows compound $$?May 23, 2014
  • BlackRock?s Fink Says Housing Structure More Unsound Now?http://t.co/xeMYQmjYGG?GSEs took too much default risk pre-crisis, returning $$?May 21, 2014
  • GOP’s Business Wing Sends Tea Party a Chilling Message?http://t.co/W5QCHBrJrW?Business fights small government GOP candidates $$?May 19, 2014
  • Why Republicans Should Take Rick Santorum Seriously?http://t.co/wN7tUmnhbV?Represents the middle class populist part of the GOP $$?May 19, 2014
  • California’s Drinking Problem?http://t.co/GZnmdInHGY?California does not have enough water for Ag, Industry, People, w/o right incentives $$?May 19, 2014

 

US Monetary Policy

  • New Faces Behind Fed Dots Seen Roiling Markets as Forecasts Move?http://t.co/M2AcqPEQTX?Y publish estimates if u don’t want us 2read them $$?May 23, 2014
  • Bubble States Underemployment Rates Haunt Yellen?http://t.co/fRzLYozafe?Monetary policy is impotent w/debt defation; Fed on wrong track $$?May 23, 2014
  • New Faces Behind Fed Dots Seen Roiling Markets as Forecasts Move?http://t.co/M2AcqPEQTX?Y publish estimates if u don’t want us 2read them $$?May 23, 2014
  • Yellen Adds Disadvantaged to Full-Employment Definition?http://t.co/10PSrxYI9c?Alas, monetary policy is weak when dealing e/employment $$?May 21, 2014
  • Fed’s Rate-Change System Up for Revamp?http://t.co/srqZoDDMhK?The Fed is lost. The Fed is lost. The Fed is lost. The Fed is lost… $$ $TLT?May 19, 2014

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Companies & Industries

  • Google Developing Tablet With Advanced Vision Capabilities?http://t.co/ABO9NObY1h?Will b interesting 2c what new apps get developed $$ $GOOG?May 23, 2014
  • Planting Corn at Warp Speed Using High-Tech Tools?http://t.co/tDF9EaJoy6?Astounding application of technology transforms planting seed $$?May 23, 2014
  • Golf Market Stuck in Bunker as Thousands Leave the Sport?http://t.co/ju7aFEx2lp?Costs 2 much $$ takes up 2 much time, but growing in Asia?May 23, 2014
  • Family Dining Offers Barometer of Middle Income?http://t.co/5IzzOFfS3j?Ugly valuations means stocks will fall if sales don’t rise 4%/yr+ $$?May 23, 2014
  • Silicon Valley’s Laundry-App Race?http://t.co/GyvIWxd5ux?Long article on the efforts to turn laundry into a scalable attractive business $$?May 23, 2014

 

Personal Finance

 

  • Dueling Strategies for 401(k)s, IRAs and Your Other Retirement Funds?http://t.co/DGzSDVhDZ6?Do what maxes long-term purchasing power $$ $SPY?May 23, 2014
  • 40 Financial Things You Should Know by 40?http://t.co/8qqFlp1TUB?2013 article, but I thought it covered the personal financial basics $$?May 19, 2014

 

Other

  • New Study: Is No Degree Better Than A Liberal Arts Degree??http://t.co/MOYUZTngoD?Depends. It helps in getting some jobs, but not all $$?May 21, 2014
  • BBC News – ‘Biggest dinosaur ever’ discovered?http://t.co/Yg2qTuS27T?Interesting b/c it probably was once much warmer in Patagonia $$?May 19, 2014
  • Haverford Speaker Bowen Criticizes Students Over Protests?http://t.co/QXkWoAh0iE?Former Princeton President calls them “immature.” Bingo! $$?May 19, 2014

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Wrong

  • Overrated: Russia, China sign deal to bypass USD?http://t.co/YNgu6bwK7H?What matters is where u invest the proceeds from goods exported $$?May 23, 2014
  • Wrong: Investing: The herd isn’t always dumb?http://t.co/dt0xuXKNCJ?Then explain y dollar-weighted returns underperform buy & hold $$ #panic?May 23, 2014
  • Wrong: Cutting Off Emergency Unemployment Benefits Hasn?t Pushed People Back to Work?http://t.co/3GwlHcvq70?We run unsustainable deficits $$?May 23, 2014
  • Wrong: Ikea Economics Lure Central Bankers Seeking New Tools?http://t.co/peVUXrPpKs?Don’t try negative interest rates; will b a disaster $$?May 23, 2014
  • Wrong: The Retirement Apocalypse That Isn’t Coming?http://t.co/ILYSCOzKTm?I might buy this if we weren’t running large deficits $$ $TLT $SPY?May 21, 2014

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Retweets, Replies & Comments

  • ‘ @DGenchev I am analyzing the investors as a group, thus what % of the mkt cap is relevant. I go to EDGAR and copy XML files into Excel?May 24, 2014
  • If I were doing your project, I would not have chosen any of your “governance experts.” I would have chosen a group?http://t.co/XWlYm8HaVD?May 22, 2014

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