China

• China’s first bond default could be good market medicine http://t.co/8ShFniYM Bond trader: “We don’t really have a credit risk culture.” $$ Mar 31, 2012
• Is China’s slowdown worse than previously estimated? http://t.co/CkZw8tLK Could b business conditions that are worst since 2009. $$ Mar 31, 2012
• China Banks Said to Underestimate Local Government Risks http://t.co/qpPicyEe China has a clever bureaucracy; always has; big CYA $$ Mar 25, 2012
• Chinese capitalism is just another knockoff http://t.co/w2hSozQL China is not Capitalist; it rewards Party members, not citizens. $$ Mar 25, 2012
• Debating a “Hard Landing” http://t.co/NMnYk2XX friendly debate – Andrew Batson & Patrick Chovanec over China facing a “hard landing” in 2012 Mar 25, 2012
• I Am Jordan’s Complete Lack of Surprise: Chinese Co’s Forced to Falsify Data http://t.co/BMj7ux0T Command & control economy, not free $$ Mar 25, 2012

Market Dynamics

• The Nature of a Crowded Trade http://t.co/sf1phJjP A July 2008 article of mine where I reflected on the high correlations of the prior 3 yrs Mar 31, 2012
• A Market Lacking Diversification http://t.co/khXUVjaL Correlation conditions similar to 2006-2008, only diversifier hi-qual long bonds $$ Mar 31, 2012
• Pension Deficit for 100 US Company Plans Increased 41% in 2011 http://t.co/FdIZTltW Low long hi-qual rates & cruddy returns on risk assets Mar 31, 2012
• 2277 Stocks and Still Not Diversified? http://t.co/iu0Pw8Ty Recommended solution is similar 2a levered version of the Permanent Portfolio $$ Mar 31, 2012
• New from Aleph Blog The Rules, Part XXXI: The offering of liquidity through limit orders is a real service to th… http://t.co/ZiuzWIo5 Mar 30, 2012
• Passive Aggressive: Index-Linked Securities and Individual Investors http://t.co/ZrjMCKCz Curbs stock picking, encourages factor timing $$ Mar 29, 2012
• Bankers are telling corporate clients this is their chance to refinance http://t.co/Eh9tHEX6 The window of cheap junk financing is open $$ Mar 28, 2012
• New from Aleph Blog Replacing Defined Contributions: I think that it is pretty certain that defined contribution… http://t.co/Dis34ql2 Mar 27, 2012
• What Will Replace the 401(k)? http://t.co/miLAuoYc How about DB pensions where it depends on how much the employee kicks in plus match? $$ Mar 27, 2012
• US Stocks Advance Following Bernanke’s Comments http://t.co/D7sORuIU Stox react 2 increases in inflation expectations. TIPS & Bonds fall $$ Mar 26, 2012
• Hedge Funds Capitulating Buy Most Stocks Since 2010 http://t.co/XHwxzxNO Short-term money alert! Will propel mkt 4 a while, then… $$ Mar 26, 2012
• If Bloomberg Business Week is a better magazine than old Businessweek (I think so), what magazine should we use now 4 a dumb $$ indicator? Mar 26, 2012

Asset Management

• Nontraded REITS should be a nonstarter for clients http://t.co/O1ZuMvX8 And here’s one that just announced a 72% loss: http://t.co/la8d29my Mar 31, 2012
• Oaktree IPO Could Pay 2 Founders $117.2M Each http://t.co/Yufla6Jk The Most Important Thing is getting rewarded 4 building AUM $$ Mar 31, 2012
• The Trouble With Exchange Traded Notes http://t.co/ZL7dVpjO Unsecured credit, total return swaps, low level of regulatory protection $$ Mar 31, 2012
• Good 4 all of us RT @frankvoisin: My interview Research Magazine’s April issue: http://t.co/zioono6R Also features @VitaliyK @alephblog $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Bain Gave Staff Way to Swell IRAs by Investing in Deals http://t.co/4LlAExBt Letting employees in on the fun shares the wealth. Good $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Lying By Omission: Mutual Funds, Track Records & Departing Managers http://t.co/4MUyNRYs Track recrds shuld b suspended when critical ppl go Mar 29, 2012
• New from Aleph Blog A Pox on Promoted Stocks (2): By this time, I would think that it would be worth the the tim… http://t.co/DJkH6E4W Mar 28, 2012
• The Measured Approach to Value http://t.co/XiZOUMOn Features investors Vitaliy Katzenelson & Croft-Leominster, & smaller Frank Voisin & me Mar 28, 2012
• GoodHaven Realizes Its Vision http://t.co/zJVmCFMa The CIO of Markel, Tom Gayner showed them favor and invested with them. Good for them. $$ Mar 27, 2012
• What This Industry Needs is a Good Disruption http://t.co/imKDcElR There r a few areas of the financial industry that justify their fees $$ Mar 27, 2012
• Found PDF slide presentation: http://t.co/0GfhME7m The Market for Financial Advice: An Audit Study $$ Worth a read, paper not free @ SSRN Mar 26, 2012
• Treasuries Rise for Fourth Day on Global Growth Concern http://t.co/JYpanHTu Funny how the sentiment has reversed; who is surprised? $$ Mar 25, 2012

Monetary Policy

• @kyles09 No, not a believer in MMT, MMR, or neoclassical macro. 2 much aggregation, not everything happens at once, goods/services central + Mar 30, 2012
• @kyles09 and $$ only facilitates goods/services. Debt is important, but not central, some goods owned outright, w/no liabs. Money is a + Mar 30, 2012
• @kyles09 creation of a culture, not the government, because @ the edges, FX & commodities will crowd out bad currencies. MMT -> inflation $$ Mar 30, 2012
• What Does Bernanke Know? http://t.co/LydpOqk1 Introduces “The Guy Rate” http://t.co/zNVeUYmP Unemployment of older guys has hi costs Mar 29, 2012
• Demand for U.S. Debt Is Not Limitless http://t.co/NWKHcpCD In 2011, the Fed purchased 61% of Treasury issuance. That can’t last. $$ Mar 29, 2012
• Bitter Money Fights Shaped U.S History http://t.co/36jWnkQq Abandoning Gold Helped Dollar Gain Preeminence http://t.co/QbYMkTNL $$ Mar 28, 2012
• For the last tweet, those r2 good articles by Simon Johnson & James Kwak, authors of “13 Bankers” & co-founders of The Baseline Scenario $$ Mar 28, 2012
• Housing bubbles and interest rates http://t.co/9TfzMpt2 Makes my point that asset price levels should be part of monetary policy $$ Mar 31, 2012

Banking & Finance

• FiveBooks Interviews > @Ritholtz on Causes of the Financial Crisis http://t.co/RQQZfHTz Many good perspectives from 6 authors on the crisis Mar 31, 2012
• Geithner’s Math Puzzle Beyond Numbers for DeMarco http://t.co/Eg9BjcgE Principal forgiveness would have moral hazard impacts. $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Why not make LIBOR off of binding offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group $10M short-term unsecured? Avg — LIBOR/LIBID $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Libor Links Deleted as UK Bank Group Backs Away From Rate http://t.co/HOy8TOof British Bankers’ Association distances itself from LIBOR $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Branson’s Virgin Money Seen Disrupting U.K. Retail Banks http://t.co/bPcD8im7 Always been a Branson skeptic; he have audited financials? Mar 30, 2012
• Why not make LIBOR off of binding bids/offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group 10 million dollars sh… http://t.co/wK3HyopV Mar 29, 2012
• Is Hartford Financial’s market exit a death knell for the annuity crowd or just more Hartford haplessness? http://t.co/AUEVqxWQ Both. $$ Mar 29, 2012
• The Birth (and Death) of the Moral Age of Wall Street http://t.co/eStszd7i At one point the moral code of $GS had some meaning, not much now Mar 29, 2012
• @BarbarianCap More subtle than that; for insurance accounting &the concept of release from risk, it is the conservative side of realistic $$ Mar 27, 2012
• A Proposal for the Resolution of Systemically Important Assets and Liabilities: The Case of the Repo Market http://t.co/WYQGAVVx +1 $$ Mar 26, 2012
• But, disagree. Would b simpler and more effective to disallow repo financiers unrestricted access to collateral even in counterparty default Mar 26, 2012
• Obama Relies on Debt Collectors Profiting From Student Loan Woe http://t.co/pYWwgLq2 How independent debt collectors get people 2 pay $$ Mar 26, 2012
• A Bailout by Another Name http://nyti.ms/GRTNMM GSE writedowns would constitute a direct & sizable gift from taxpayers 2 the largest banks Mar 26, 2012
• Banks’ preemptive strike against Dodd-Frank http://t.co/wjHW0nyv Banks adjusting strategies in order to keep doing as much biz as possible Mar 26, 2012
• MF’s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says http://t.co/cYaT9sHy The most likely cause may prove to b correct $$ #corzine Mar 26, 2012
• BOE’s Tucker: Rehypothecation Consequences ‘Under the Radar’ http://t.co/0X8ZQMMH Good. Rehypothecation should b reviewed, perhaps limited Mar 26, 2012
• @EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest I would still lay the blame @ the door of $GS mgmt. Could have grown via retained earnings &stayed private $$ Mar 26, 2012
• @EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest Also, there r real advantages 2 partnership culture in an investment bank; risk control works a lot better $$ Mar 26, 2012
• The Age of the Shadow Bank Run http://t.co/deJRQGgy Borrow short, lend long; clip a spread. Surprise! During the crisis you lose big! $$ Mar 25, 2012
• The Interest Rate Swaps that Are Bankrupting Local Governments http://t.co/yHQZ1r3u Not true. Gov’ts tried to minimize taxes w/swaps, failed Mar 25, 2012
• Three’s a Crowd http://t.co/KHtbrqpe Disagree w/the conclusion, because $GS did not have to go public; problem is mgmt, not shareholders $$ Mar 25, 2012

Pensions

• Brazil’s pension system http://t.co/90O97tQ4 They allow people to retire too early & offer too much. More unsustainable than Medicare $$ Mar 30, 2012
• @AlexRubalcava Perhaps a cash balance plan would do that. DB plans are not expensive because of explicit costs. They r expensive b/c + Mar 28, 2012
• @AlexRubalcava during boom times benefits look free and get set too high, leading to high costs in the bust phase & plan terminations. $$ Mar 28, 2012

Politics

• Obama Is a Loser Who Wins, Like FDR in 1936 http://t.co/K0x9go0T Don’t assume a bad economy insures the defeat of Obama. FDR won in ’36 $$ Mar 31, 2012
• The Rejection of Austerity Begins http://t.co/CgWKa9x6 Until failure, ppl vote 4 politicians who promise magic prosperity thru govt fiat $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Germany: The Final Frontier… Whose True Debt/GDP Is Now 140% http://t.co/KgW2d76E When you add up the guarantees, doesn’t look so good. $$ Mar 29, 2012
• Justices Suggest Parts of Health-Care Law May Be Thrown Out http://t.co/cMvKHR20 B best 2 throw the whole law out; let Congress start over Mar 29, 2012
• Contra: Court Can’t Let Broccoli Get in Way of Health Care Law http://t.co/5Yp2o8tB Sup Ct is moving 2 define interstate commerce better Mar 26, 2012
• Death Tax Defying http://t.co/FrkL5yLB Eliminate the estate tax; Tax everyone on unrealized capital gains. $$ Same result. Mar 25, 2012
• Intelligence community can keep data on Americans with no ties to terrorism for up to 5 years http://t.co/PCM7ldiG Stinks; call the ACLU $$ Mar 25, 2012

US Economy

• Why Natural-Gas Prices Could Fade to Red http://t.co/GApb0xie When everyone tries 2 frack @ once, there is too much natgas, price falls Mar 30, 2012
• US coal production declines as industry faces further stress http://t.co/l3WpZtDC Fracking has unpredictable consequences; affects energy $$ Mar 29, 2012
• Bidding Wars Erupt as U.S. Supply of Homes for Sale Falls http://t.co/JsgIdewr In certain locales, & on the low end, there r bidding wars Mar 29, 2012
• The Biggest Bellwether In The World Is Giving Some Ominous Comments About Growth http://t.co/vHWs9lwB $FDX says things r slowing down $$ Mar 29, 2012
• Planned Pipelines to Rival Keystone XL http://t.co/qQZ1Dsj2 Enterprise Products Partners & Enbridge may build competing pipelines $$ Mar 28, 2012
• ‘Pink slime’ producer suspends operations http://t.co/CvptYPhU Goes from 4 factories to 1. 600 people will probably lose their jobs $$ Mar 28, 2012
• @valuewalk @The_Analyst It is better for students to start small businesses. Forget economics, it is a waste. Profit/loss best teacher $$ Mar 27, 2012
• The Economic Surprise Index is now trending down http://t.co/eJCEEdvy @soberlook reminds us that not everything is going well $$ Mar 27, 2012

Miscellaneous

• Like it? I’ve actually bought cars that way! RT @mprobertson: http://t.co/UHdFL0Eu How to buy a car using game theory. very interesting. $$ Mar 31, 2012
• Eating Chocolate Regularly May Make You Leaner, Survey Suggests http://t.co/l8c6MMpA This means one dark chocolate Dove promise/day $$ Mar 27, 2012
• The second most dangerous people in the world are smart people with wrong postulates. Mar 25, 2012
• The most dangerous people in the world are politicians who peddle the views of the smart people with wrong postulates. $$ Mar 25, 2012
• Madoff FBI Files Reveal How He Fooled His Own Employees http://t.co/lmq2AoZG Gives hope to those accused; Madoff controlled data tightly. Mar 25, 2012

Central Banking

• Been using FRED since it was a bulletin board in 1991. Great job, FRED team! http://t.co/kksvwllM Mar 24, 2012
• The Villain http://t.co/yYReRb4r On Bernanke, the man who expanded the power of the Fed far beyond constitutional limits, if there r any $$ Mar 24, 2012
• Bernanke Sees Need for Higher Household Spending to Fuel Growth http://t.co/3LQUTGji Yes Ben, we will spend more while we are inverted $$ Mar 24, 2012
• Fed’s Evans Calls for Stronger Commitment to Low Rates http://t.co/vSKfU36q Read paper; don’t buy it. ARIMA, no out of sample tests $$ Mar 24, 2012
• Bernanke Says Low Rates Didn’t Fuel Bubble http://t.co/XlF50zKV Perhaps Bernanke can’t remember minor crisis; RMBS extension mid-2003 $$ Mar 24, 2012
• That crisis created a very sharp move up in rates http://t.co/jfNAVN3o $$ Mar 24, 2012
• Bernanke: the man, the legacy and the law http://t.co/zA7OeFc4 “courts have shied away from developing jurisprudence on monetary policy.” $$ Mar 24, 2012
• @fatdaz It is my firm belief that no economic entity can dominate entirely; central banks have been destroyed b4; will happen again $$ Mar 24, 2012
• Masters of the Universe Start to Challenge Ben Bernanke http://t.co/31Pr1yrQ Markets are more powerful than Central Banks, watch out Fed! Mar 23, 2012
• European Banks Would Have Passed Fed’s Stress Test http://t.co/z5bCBeYy Ultimate insult 4 stringency of Fed’s stress tests $$ #devildetails Mar 20, 2012
• Bernanke Stands to Gain Capital-Market Experts With Nominees http://t.co/oX8xOdEU We need some people that doubt neoclassical economics $$ Mar 20, 2012
• Bernanke Returns to Academic Roots to Justify Fed’s Existence http://t.co/ORfma5sE Safe audiences let him talk publicly w/little risk $$ Mar 20, 2012
• Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets http://t.co/CQu827KD Ignores E-Zone contagion, increase in int rate volatility, etc $$ Mar 19, 2012
• Bernanke: “I Want to Bring Back Irrational Exuberance” http://t.co/p0qlQwXe @brucekrasting on overheating in some debt asset classes $$ Mar 19, 2012

China

• Ai Weiwei: “You’re There but You’re Not Existing” http://t.co/d7mLxHXm RARE interview w/Ai Weiwei, describing his detention in China $$ Mar 24, 2012
• China’s stock-market supervision suffering http://t.co/QEBPC5ya “Understaffed securities regulator, weak legal system cited” $$ #nosurprise Mar 21, 2012
• @Roy_Cam They can’t make money b/c of overcapacity; China invested too much in steel & global growth stinks. US exports of steel r rising $$ Mar 20, 2012
• @Roy_Cam We only import 30% of steel used in US, 4% of which comes from China = 1.2% of steel used is from China http://t.co/FTWt80oa $$ Mar 20, 2012
• @Roy_Cam You are right there, and that’s one reason why profitability is declining in steel industry globally. $$ Mar 20, 2012
• China to increase fuel prices 6-7% http://t.co/dBwrepDj Pump prices at record highs; biggest rise since June 2009 #ouch $$ Mar 20, 2012
• Sad Industry Mantra: Make Steel, Lose Money http://t.co/Pu9e6qFj Insanity; doing same thing, expecting different results. Future bailout $$ Mar 20, 2012
• The State-Owned Enterprises of China http://t.co/55nvgUMs I think a “big bang” would work, but the Communist Party would never do it $$ #Mao Mar 20, 2012
• Chinese property *alert* http://t.co/eklWzXkU Property sales value contracted 20% year on year in the two months ending in February. $$ Mar 20, 2012
• China’s new home prices “no longer rising” http://t.co/UL4T3yzQ The Chinese Gov’t always gets what it wants, until it gets too much of it $$ Mar 19, 2012
• Chinese Companies Forced to Falsify Data, Government Says http://t.co/tH0MUiYn AN example of why I don’t trust Chinese economic data. $$ Mar 18, 2012
• @Xiphos_Trading Don’t know if there will be a crash or not, but there has been a lot of malinvestment in China, like Late 80s Japan $$ Mar 18, 2012

Europe

• Those Catchy Spanish (Yield) Curves http://t.co/qoGmGl7E Yields backing up in the Spanish bond market; this could be the next crisis $$ Mar 24, 2012
• Euro-Zone Banks Get Show of Faith http://t.co/ZWqd8Df5 US MMFs begin adding back yieldy E-zone bank CP $$ #wedontlearnwereallydontlearn Mar 24, 2012
• On second thought, hold off moving that business to Ireland http://t.co/Bdu6ezon Ireland heading into recession; possibility of default? $$ Mar 23, 2012
• @Mapsofworld Gun to the head, I think it fails entirely, but that opinion is not held with high probability $$ Mar 22, 2012
• @Mapsofworld If the E-zone doesn’t move 2a full fiscal union, the Euro will either fail entirely, or become the currency of a smaller group Mar 22, 2012
• The Safe Haven of the Nordic Currencies Is No More http://t.co/FquH5ZWW It’s a little early to get categorical about this $$ Mar 21, 2012
• A Wall St. Firm Advises Greece, With Discretion http://t.co/Y12GeNZq $BLK is one powerful firm that many govts in crisis turn 2 4 help $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Swiss Secrecy Besieged Makes Banks Fret World Money Lure Fading http://t.co/qV197Px1 What good r Swiss banks if no secrecy, tax evasion $$ Mar 20, 2012
• Germany on a Different Track http://t.co/Gl3BNXBA While Much of EZone Deals W/Busts, Property Prices r Rising in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich Mar 20, 2012

Rest of the World

• Israel Billionaires Put Own Interest Ahead of Holders http://t.co/QSTpBn6E What’s mine is mine; what’s yours is negotiable $$ Mar 24, 2012
• Late Shah’s Son Selected As Iran’s Person Of The Year http://t.co/phWmAFRQ This is VOA so take it w/a grain of salt; still funny 2thinkabout Mar 24, 2012
• Latin American Nations in Worse Shape for Crisis, IDB Says http://t.co/zlZvDJi4 “result of lower budget surpluses b4 interest payments” $$ Mar 20, 2012
• What is the real rate of interest telling us? http://t.co/Vbk13I02 Excess capacity in devel world post bubble pop, send cap 2 emerg mkts Mar 20, 2012

Insurance

• @CflGator Life companies should be simple, but product design exploded to the point where reserving can’t keep up; I own only 1 life co. Mar 24, 2012
• @CflGator Variable & Universal life products have secondary gtee issues; there r a variety of long dated term products w/rsv issues $$ Mar 24, 2012
• @CflGator and P&C insurance — life insurance is capital intensive; they are sticking with their simplest biz, aside from long-tail P&C $$ Mar 24, 2012
• @CflGator It really depends; they wrote a lot of complex life products. On the bright side, a company in runoff is a cash cow. $$ Mar 24, 2012
• @CflGator That’s the tough Q. $HIG offered significant secondary guarantees when they were the #1 annuity writer. May not b prop reserved $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Hartford Shares Jump On Split, Analysts Like It Too http://t.co/APFbv4UA Not so fast on $HIG; regulators must approve a split; c my cmmt Mar 21, 2012
• Should Hartford’s Annuity Holders Be Worried? http://t.co/HfuZO3QO Probably not; small annuitants have protection from guaranty funds $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Annuity Case Chills Insurance Agents http://t.co/rHkg68Lw I’m always skeptical of products w/high commissions & surrender charges $$ Mar 19, 2012

Fixed Income

• Why Fixed Income Funds May Fall Short http://t.co/cHmF3hOj On the difficulties of combating tracking error in fixed income ETFs. $$ Mar 24, 2012
• Top Junk Pummels Treasuries for Safest Profits http://t.co/E5vl2qHB That’s the rearview mirror; will be harder to squeeze more returns out Mar 21, 2012
• The differentiation of Agency MBS risk profiles http://t.co/IJN2mbCm Interesting to see long avg life on high coupon underwater mortgages $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Bond Bear Market Yet to Roar http://t.co/oNENX9jc The selloff has been piddling so far, has not affected equities, & it may reverse $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Do High Yield Bonds Know Something Stocks Don’t? http://t.co/986Evuok Equities & Inv Grade corps outperforming HY Corps- call provisions? $$ Mar 19, 2012
• RE: @thearmotrader Thanks, you did the post that I wanted to do.  Now I just have to point to it. http://t.co/Ru22nvom Mar 19, 2012

Exchange Traded Products

• “@HerbGreenberg mentions that once the creation/redemption mechanism “breaks” (my word, not his), that the ETF/ETN sh… http://t.co/jxK0bZfX Mar 23, 2012
• RE: Not likely, but maybe.  If they were forced to see that they were getting a negative (or very low positive) yield… http://t.co/nnxLt2oj Mar 23, 2012
• Exchange-Traded Notes Are Worse Than You Think http://t.co/FAO4IS3H Path-dependent fees, shadow NAVs, high fees, tracking error, credit risk Mar 21, 2012
• Who Uses Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Anyway? http://t.co/cYpkVMr5 Retail owns 80%+. Normal ETFs r mostly held by institutions $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Know Your Client – Leveraged ETF Version http://t.co/gqPtiZtF Doesn’t matter if leverage is internal or external, client needs come first $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Money Managers Serving Clients First, Ego Second http://t.co/gY9bd1iR Using the investment vehicles of competing firms — a good thing $$ Mar 21, 2012
• RE: @finadd “Our results indicate that the extensive purchases of risky private-label mortgage-backed securities by t… http://t.co/cn5TM1cR Mar 20, 2012
• @amy_calistri at the levels implied by the CEF pricing at some funds, it would shave the yield 3% $DHF $MAV $HIX, 5% $PHT, 12% $PHK $$ Mar 19, 2012
• @amy_calistri Right. I watch the premiums on credit-sensitive CEFs as a measure of frothiness. If the underlying at some HY CEFs were bot + Mar 19, 2012
• Anybody know what was up with $EFT today? Floating-rate loan CEF up 4%+, Closed near par last Friday… odd. $$ Mar 19, 2012
• ‘Junk’ ETFs: Tread Lightly http://t.co/lXftKjwB Check the Price vs the NAV before you buy; also, if w/ds start, index bonds will get hit Mar 19, 2012

Individual Equities

• Leon Black’s Bid Gets No Respect as Great Wolf Surges http://t.co/kqS6pNyU Used 2call this stock “little dog;” badly managed frm beginning Mar 24, 2012
• @merrillmatter Bezos is scary-smart. I don’t own $AMZN either $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Just watched it. Wow, very impressive RT @merrillmatter: Skynet shall be renamed SkyBezos — Order Fetch http://t.co/6l9R9bHn $$ Mar 21, 2012
• +1, ugh RT @abnormalreturns: [post] America officially ran out of good corporate names today. http://t.co/lLGEmeAB $ABT $KFT $AAPL $NKE $MCD Mar 21, 2012
• You’re on a roll today @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog soon our robot overlords will deliver our bread and circuses to us in the Bezos Colosseum Mar 21, 2012
• No RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog I want to start a consultancy that veto’s stupid company names. Would your anti-consultancy veto that? Mar 21, 2012
• Amazon Wrings Profit From Fulfillment as Spending Soars http://t.co/McHUqMhe Tough work 4 laborers, though. $AMZN pushes pretty hard $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Kraft to Be Renamed Mondelez After Grocery Unit Is Spun Off http://t.co/GONE6x47 Pronounced “Mohn-dah-LEEZ.” Sigh, who got paid 4 this? $$ Mar 21, 2012
• The 400% Man’s New Big Bet http://t.co/33rHut9y Implicitly a bet that $BRKa will always be able to buy back stock @ 1.1x book value $$ Mar 21, 2012
• In a Major Restructuring, $HPQ To Combine Printer and PC Groups http://t.co/Aj3zaKaY FD: +HPQ; seems like a marginal idea, maybe works $$ Mar 20, 2012
• Why $HPQ Really Needs A CEO Succession Plan http://t.co/hkPDVkAy Good cultures should promote from within; HP used to have that $$ FD: +HPQ Mar 20, 2012
• Buffett Message Is ‘Do as I Say, Not as I Do’ http://t.co/Gcblc8oZ Alice Schroeder very acidic on Buffett; half right & half wrong $$ Mar 20, 2012
• $AAPL to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash http://t.co/uxf6jEBP About time, if there aren’t opps 2use the $$ Mar 19, 2012

Money Market Funds

• @MarcHochstein Thanks, I found the CFA Institutes comment today, and their view is similar 2 mine in some ways: http://t.co/8yPLcXfX $$ Mar 22, 2012
• @MarcHochstein investment restrictions moved back to 2008 norms. The ability 2 have credit events frees MMFs to pursue best advantage $$ Mar 21, 2012
• @MarcHochstein My idea will work 4 MMFs using inv policies prior 2 2008. The MMF folks aren’t earning $$ now, but they could with + Mar 21, 2012
• @MarcHochstein After reading this: http://t.co/aUoaN4kb Ask them, what if you traded Merkel’s idea 4 a loosening of investment rules? $$ Mar 21, 2012
• @MarcHochstein 1 more thing; if they have any sympathy toward my idea, I live near DC & would be willing to testify to the SEC $$ Mar 20, 2012
• @MarcHochstein Does that help? I still think my proposal, one of the few compromise proposals out there would work best of all. Mar 20, 2012
• @MarcHochstein Having been a life actuary, most regulatory progress happens when actuaries talk w/smarter regulators & forge compromise Mar 20, 2012
• @MarcHochstein Does that help? MMFs are just saying “We r fine, nothing needs 2b done.” 2me that strategy prob loses. Mar 20, 2012
• @MarcHochstein Would ask them if they have any way of stopping MMF runs on a private basis; this is the SEC goal; solve that, they leave Mar 20, 2012
• @MarcHochstein More humbly, I would ask them if they really think they can beat the SEC. SEC’s proposal is horrible, but saying “no” loses Mar 20, 2012
• @MarcHochstein Not so humbly, I would ask that u show them my proposal that I sent to the SEC, & ask them to back it http://t.co/vuNL8tQE Mar 20, 2012

Market Dynamics

• The Easy Money’s Been Made, Four Reasons for Caution http://t.co/9kAXqEU4 E-zone calm, risk tolerance+ , VIX low, FOMC may move soon Mar 24, 2012
• …and then all of a sudden, THE BULLS WENT BERZERK! http://t.co/bJKCVJha Lots of bullishness out there, though Howard Marks thought otherwise Mar 21, 2012
• @byrneseyeview That’s true, & I did a presentation on that. One more complicating factor were financials, which looked cheap but weren’t $$ Mar 21, 2012
• @byrneseyeview Found it. Here: http://t.co/YupRW6yD It’s on a number of topics; it was well-received $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Contra: The Biggest Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of http://t.co/0tzkPyiA Value can’t b a bubble. Growth can b a bubble. Growth & ROE meanrevert Mar 21, 2012
• Is this time really different? http://t.co/eePs0aIV It’s never different. It’s always different. Profit margins will mean-revert; Q is when Mar 21, 2012
• Biggs boosts bullish bets on stocks to 90% net long http://t.co/5fYQDhUC Won’t be the first 2 say this, but makes me doubt the rally $$ Mar 21, 2012
• The Ax is Back http://t.co/B1j3f7nH @reformedbroker Reduced profits on Wall Street translates into reduced perks, bonuses & jobs $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Public Companies: The End Is Near http://t.co/KejHwYDu There r still advantages 2being publicly traded, but has eroded since Sarbox, etc $$ Mar 20, 2012
• S&P 500 Rises to Four-Year High as Apple Plans Dividend http://t.co/RnBf9yEw $AAPL raises the div yld on the S&P 500 by 0.08%. Big! $$ Mar 19, 2012
• Shares and shibboleths http://t.co/CspyJCNX The equity premium over a diversified portfolio of investment grade bonds is ~1%/yr IMO $$ Mar 19, 2012
• Hubble, Bubble, Index Trouble http://t.co/2q3CPx4g Been saying this for years, indexing changes market dynamics, what happens @ reversal? $$ Mar 18, 2012

Politics

• Why Are Your Neighbors Just Like You? http://t.co/0lcPOuLZ On the demise of really knowing your neighbors; we try 2 reach out; few others do Mar 24, 2012
• @traderscrucible @interfluidity My blog (& Steve’s) have always had a strong public policy emphasis. Dreaming, but we suggest better policy. Mar 23, 2012
• Agent Based Models http://t.co/0etJ20fL “Why not keep it simple, and just say, you pay an asset tax for every dollar over $100B?” $$ Mar 23, 2012
• The Warren Buffett Chain Letter http://t.co/31FFSrmm Draconian adjustments. What Buffett did & didn’t say. 3% deficit ejects Congress $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Migration of sovereign debt from private hands to public institutions http://t.co/rQbDTXg3 &the debt sits til liquidity is needed -> crisis! Mar 21, 2012
• To Stay On Top, The US Must Invest In Research Universities http://t.co/P4kyUqY0 FD: + $INTC; do it w/yr own $$ not taxes; c my comment Mar 20, 2012
• RT @BarbarianCap: “cnbc: California Cities Scrambling to Avoid Becoming Insolvent” > the die was cast years ago; clowns, path depende … Mar 20, 2012
• Stopping the National Debt: A Movement Led By a Cowboy, a Colonel, & a Citizens’ Cavalry http://t.co/frqAXCpy Natl Debt Relief Amendment Mar 20, 2012
• Who is REALLY paying in the $25bil TBTF mortgage settlement http://t.co/T2h1B5CO $5B from banks, rest MBS holders eg pension plans, insurers Mar 19, 2012
• The JOBS Act: Plutocracy in Action http://t.co/Fjo3Ppet Another article on the previous topic; don’t downgrade information quality $$ Mar 19, 2012
• Small Biz Jobs Act Is a Bipartisan Bridge Too Far http://t.co/AwBXg184 Would not mess w/securities laws in that way to create growth $$ Mar 19, 2012
• Public Unions Send Medical Bills to Taxpayers http://t.co/Lb2XgAv9 CA Sup Ct foolishly makes healthcare nonreducible. CA will die $$ Mar 18, 2012
• As Unions Lose Their Grip, Indiana Lures Manufacturing Jobs http://t.co/vj177CT2 Like my article that few like http://t.co/WgdN7Mmq $$ Mar 18, 2012
• Pension Legislation Could Cut Contributions, Hike Taxes http://t.co/Tj1UlUz8 Stupid proposals that weaken DB pensions, companies r strongnow Mar 18, 2012

Regulation

• Where is the Center for Audit Quality When We Actually Could Use It? http://t.co/jWt09bcw JOBS Act: destroy info reliability to create jobs Mar 23, 2012
• Fed’s Fisher Says ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ Problem Remains http://t.co/eLvHGmXt Richard Fisher favors breakup of the biggest banks. $$ Mar 21, 2012
• @carney just read your piece on the net capital rule. Similar to my piece last November http://t.co/tl28NPku Good piece. $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Top Court’s Patent Rejection Alarms the Biotech Industry http://t.co/oK11WlvR ’bout time we forced a more fundamental review of patents Mar 21, 2012

Economics

• Solar’s 80% Plunge Hurts Utilities From Hawaii to Spain http://t.co/m9eACVTp Overcapacity drives down prices of PV panels for now. $$ Mar 21, 2012
• Mean Time Between Failures http://t.co/zkT0z9cX The “recovery” is getting long in the tooth, eg it may end soon; graph: http://t.co/xOHA1IYA Mar 20, 2012
• Obama’s tax hikes threaten a new US recession http://t.co/uNHwBpeJ Looking @ 4 more years of divided govt & stalemate $$ #debtbombgrows Mar 20, 2012
• @The_Dumb_Money I would have liked to see the Banks/Etc. who owned the servicers bear more of the cost $$ Mar 20, 2012
• Partial equilibrium intuitions about choice http://t.co/215kIrmS @interfluidity more difficult to solve general equilibrium Qs than partial Mar 19, 2012
• Understanding the New Price of Oil http://t.co/TaMTaneR No surprise here; most cheap oil has been found, the price of oil should rise $$ Mar 18, 2012

Miscellaneous

• @merrillmatter Factoid: 100,000,000,000 to 1 for a monkey to type the word “banana” from random typewriter jumping Mar 21, 2012
• Is a Calorie a Calorie? http://t.co/4hyTfSvr Yes, but different nutrients come w/calories. Also, a unit of fat has 2x cals vs carbs/protein Mar 21, 2012
• Madoff’s Lament: I Was An Honest Money Manager Once http://t.co/OGp2xRHR The outside world should ignore Madoff now. Attention feeds him. Mar 21, 2012
• Trust no one http://t.co/cFYBkCA7 & http://t.co/ILP0dPlA Independent & regular journalists face conflicts of interest in giving speeches $$ Mar 20, 2012
• On Slime and Water http://t.co/8iezy0FK Pink Slime in burgers, and shortages of potable water in most of the globe, except Canada & US. $$ Mar 18, 2012
• The NSA Is Building the Country’s Biggest Spy Center (Watch What You Say) http://t.co/iUsN5D0t Time to increase encryption key sizes $$ Mar 18, 2012
• @TimABRussell I always read all the books I review; in rare cases when I don’t, I tell readers that I skimmed it. $$ Mar 18, 2012

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Central Banking

·  Been using FRED since it was a bulletin board in 1991. Great job, FRED team! http://t.co/kksvwllMMar 24, 2012

·  The Villain http://t.co/yYReRb4r On Bernanke, the man who expanded the power of the Fed far beyond constitutional limits, if there r any $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  Bernanke Sees Need for Higher Household Spending to Fuel Growth http://t.co/3LQUTGji Yes Ben, we will spend more while we are inverted $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  Fed’s Evans Calls for Stronger Commitment to Low Rates http://t.co/vSKfU36q Read paper; don’t buy it. ARIMA, no out of sample tests $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  Bernanke Says Low Rates Didn’t Fuel Bubble http://t.co/XlF50zKV Perhaps Bernanke can’t remember minor crisis; RMBS extension mid-2003 $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  That crisis created a very sharp move up in rates http://t.co/jfNAVN3o $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  Bernanke: the man, the legacy and the law http://t.co/zA7OeFc4 “courts have shied away from developing jurisprudence on monetary policy.” $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  @fatdaz It is my firm belief that no economic entity can dominate entirely; central banks have been destroyed b4; will happen again $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  Masters of the Universe Start to Challenge Ben Bernanke http://t.co/31Pr1yrQ Markets are more powerful than Central Banks, watch out Fed! Mar 23, 2012

·  European Banks Would Have Passed Fed’s Stress Test http://t.co/z5bCBeYy Ultimate insult 4 stringency of Fed’s stress tests $$ #devildetails Mar 20, 2012

·  Bernanke Stands to Gain Capital-Market Experts With Nominees http://t.co/oX8xOdEU We need some people that doubt neoclassical economics $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  Bernanke Returns to Academic Roots to Justify Fed’s Existence http://t.co/ORfma5sE Safe audiences let him talk publicly w/little risk $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets http://t.co/CQu827KD Ignores E-Zone contagion, increase in int rate volatility, etc $$ Mar 19, 2012

·  Bernanke: “I Want to Bring Back Irrational Exuberance” http://t.co/p0qlQwXe @brucekrasting on overheating in some debt asset classes $$ Mar 19, 2012

China

·  Ai Weiwei: “You’re There but You’re Not Existing” http://t.co/d7mLxHXm RARE interview w/Ai Weiwei, describing his detention in China $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  China’s stock-market supervision suffering http://t.co/QEBPC5ya “Understaffed securities regulator, weak legal system cited” $$ #nosurprise Mar 21, 2012

·  @Roy_Cam They can’t make money b/c of overcapacity; China invested too much in steel & global growth stinks. US exports of steel r rising $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  @Roy_Cam We only import 30% of steel used in US, 4% of which comes from China = 1.2% of steel used is from China http://t.co/FTWt80oa $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  @Roy_Cam You are right there, and that’s one reason why profitability is declining in steel industry globally. $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  China to increase fuel prices 6-7% http://t.co/dBwrepDj Pump prices at record highs; biggest rise since June 2009 #ouch $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  Sad Industry Mantra: Make Steel, Lose Money http://t.co/Pu9e6qFj Insanity; doing same thing, expecting different results. Future bailout $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  The State-Owned Enterprises of China http://t.co/55nvgUMs I think a “big bang” would work, but the Communist Party would never do it $$ #Mao Mar 20, 2012

·  Chinese property *alert* http://t.co/eklWzXkU Property sales value contracted 20% year on year in the two months ending in February. $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  China’s new home prices “no longer rising” http://t.co/UL4T3yzQ The Chinese Gov’t always gets what it wants, until it gets too much of it $$ Mar 19, 2012

·  Chinese Companies Forced to Falsify Data, Government Says http://t.co/tH0MUiYn AN example of why I don’t trust Chinese economic data. $$ Mar 18, 2012

·  @Xiphos_Trading Don’t know if there will be a crash or not, but there has been a lot of malinvestment in China, like Late 80s Japan $$ Mar 18, 2012

Europe

·  Those Catchy Spanish (Yield) Curves http://t.co/qoGmGl7E Yields backing up in the Spanish bond market; this could be the next crisis $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  Euro-Zone Banks Get Show of Faith http://t.co/ZWqd8Df5 US MMFs begin adding back yieldy E-zone bank CP $$ #wedontlearnwereallydontlearn Mar 24, 2012

·  On second thought, hold off moving that business to Ireland http://t.co/Bdu6ezon Ireland heading into recession; possibility of default? $$ Mar 23, 2012

·  @Mapsofworld Gun to the head, I think it fails entirely, but that opinion is not held with high probability $$ Mar 22, 2012

·  @Mapsofworld If the E-zone doesn’t move 2a full fiscal union, the Euro will either fail entirely, or become the currency of a smaller group Mar 22, 2012

·  The Safe Haven of the Nordic Currencies Is No More http://t.co/FquH5ZWW It’s a little early to get categorical about this $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  A Wall St. Firm Advises Greece, With Discretion http://t.co/Y12GeNZq $BLK is one powerful firm that many govts in crisis turn 2 4 help $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Swiss Secrecy Besieged Makes Banks Fret World Money Lure Fading http://t.co/qV197Px1 What good r Swiss banks if no secrecy, tax evasion $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  Germany on a Different Track http://t.co/Gl3BNXBA While Much of EZone Deals W/Busts, Property Prices r Rising in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich Mar 20, 2012

Rest of the World

·  Israel Billionaires Put Own Interest Ahead of Holders http://t.co/QSTpBn6E What’s mine is mine; what’s yours is negotiable $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  Late Shah’s Son Selected As Iran’s Person Of The Year http://t.co/phWmAFRQ This is VOA so take it w/a grain of salt; still funny 2thinkabout Mar 24, 2012

·  Latin American Nations in Worse Shape for Crisis, IDB Says http://t.co/zlZvDJi4 “result of lower budget surpluses b4 interest payments” $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  What is the real rate of interest telling us? http://t.co/Vbk13I02 Excess capacity in devel world post bubble pop, send cap 2 emerg mkts Mar 20, 2012

Insurance

·  @CflGator Life companies should be simple, but product design exploded to the point where reserving can’t keep up; I own only 1 life co. Mar 24, 2012

·  @CflGator Variable & Universal life products have secondary gtee issues; there r a variety of long dated term products w/rsv issues $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  @CflGator and P&C insurance — life insurance is capital intensive; they are sticking with their simplest biz, aside from long-tail P&C $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  @CflGator It really depends; they wrote a lot of complex life products. On the bright side, a company in runoff is a cash cow. $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  @CflGator That’s the tough Q. $HIG offered significant secondary guarantees when they were the #1 annuity writer. May not b prop reserved $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Hartford Shares Jump On Split, Analysts Like It Too http://t.co/APFbv4UA Not so fast on $HIG; regulators must approve a split; c my cmmt Mar 21, 2012

·  Should Hartford’s Annuity Holders Be Worried? http://t.co/HfuZO3QO Probably not; small annuitants have protection from guaranty funds $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Annuity Case Chills Insurance Agents http://t.co/rHkg68Lw I’m always skeptical of products w/high commissions & surrender charges $$ Mar 19, 2012

Fixed Income

·  Why Fixed Income Funds May Fall Short http://t.co/cHmF3hOj On the difficulties of combating tracking error in fixed income ETFs. $$ Mar 24, 2012

·  Top Junk Pummels Treasuries for Safest Profits http://t.co/E5vl2qHB That’s the rearview mirror; will be harder to squeeze more returns out Mar 21, 2012

·  The differentiation of Agency MBS risk profiles http://t.co/IJN2mbCm Interesting to see long avg life on high coupon underwater mortgages $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Bond Bear Market Yet to Roar http://t.co/oNENX9jc The selloff has been piddling so far, has not affected equities, & it may reverse $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Do High Yield Bonds Know Something Stocks Don’t? http://t.co/986Evuok Equities & Inv Grade corps outperforming HY Corps- call provisions? $$ Mar 19, 2012

·  RE: @thearmotrader Thanks, you did the post that I wanted to do.  Now I just have to point to it. http://t.co/Ru22nvom Mar 19, 2012

Exchange Traded Products

·  “@HerbGreenberg mentions that once the creation/redemption mechanism “breaks” (my word, not his), that the ETF/ETN sh… http://t.co/jxK0bZfX Mar 23, 2012

·  RE: Not likely, but maybe.  If they were forced to see that they were getting a negative (or very low positive) yield… http://t.co/nnxLt2oj Mar 23, 2012

·  Exchange-Traded Notes Are Worse Than You Think http://t.co/FAO4IS3H Path-dependent fees, shadow NAVs, high fees, tracking error, credit risk Mar 21, 2012

·  Who Uses Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Anyway? http://t.co/cYpkVMr5 Retail owns 80%+. Normal ETFs r mostly held by institutions $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Know Your Client – Leveraged ETF Version http://t.co/gqPtiZtF Doesn’t matter if leverage is internal or external, client needs come first $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Money Managers Serving Clients First, Ego Second http://t.co/gY9bd1iR Using the investment vehicles of competing firms — a good thing $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  RE: @finadd “Our results indicate that the extensive purchases of risky private-label mortgage-backed securities by t… http://t.co/cn5TM1cR Mar 20, 2012

·  @amy_calistri at the levels implied by the CEF pricing at some funds, it would shave the yield 3% $DHF $MAV $HIX, 5% $PHT, 12% $PHK $$ Mar 19, 2012

·  @amy_calistri Right. I watch the premiums on credit-sensitive CEFs as a measure of frothiness. If the underlying at some HY CEFs were bot + Mar 19, 2012

·  Anybody know what was up with $EFT today? Floating-rate loan CEF up 4%+, Closed near par last Friday… odd. $$ Mar 19, 2012

·  ‘Junk’ ETFs: Tread Lightly http://t.co/lXftKjwB Check the Price vs the NAV before you buy; also, if w/ds start, index bonds will get hit Mar 19, 2012

Individual Equities

·  Leon Black’s Bid Gets No Respect as Great Wolf Surges http://t.co/kqS6pNyU Used 2call this stock “little dog;” badly managed frm beginning Mar 24, 2012

·  @merrillmatter Bezos is scary-smart. I don’t own $AMZN either $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Just watched it. Wow, very impressive RT @merrillmatter: Skynet shall be renamed SkyBezos — Order Fetch http://t.co/6l9R9bHn $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  +1, ugh RT @abnormalreturns: [post] America officially ran out of good corporate names today. http://t.co/lLGEmeAB $ABT $KFT $AAPL $NKE $MCD Mar 21, 2012

·  You’re on a roll today @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog soon our robot overlords will deliver our bread and circuses to us in the Bezos Colosseum Mar 21, 2012

·  No RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog I want to start a consultancy that veto’s stupid company names. Would your anti-consultancy veto that? Mar 21, 2012

·  Amazon Wrings Profit From Fulfillment as Spending Soars http://t.co/McHUqMhe Tough work 4 laborers, though. $AMZN pushes pretty hard $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Kraft to Be Renamed Mondelez After Grocery Unit Is Spun Off http://t.co/GONE6x47 Pronounced “Mohn-dah-LEEZ.” Sigh, who got paid 4 this? $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  The 400% Man’s New Big Bet http://t.co/33rHut9y Implicitly a bet that $BRKa will always be able to buy back stock @ 1.1x book value $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  In a Major Restructuring, $HPQ To Combine Printer and PC Groups http://t.co/Aj3zaKaY FD: +HPQ; seems like a marginal idea, maybe works $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  Why $HPQ Really Needs A CEO Succession Plan http://t.co/hkPDVkAy Good cultures should promote from within; HP used to have that $$ FD: +HPQ Mar 20, 2012

·  Buffett Message Is ‘Do as I Say, Not as I Do’ http://t.co/Gcblc8oZ Alice Schroeder very acidic on Buffett; half right & half wrong $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  $AAPL to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash http://t.co/uxf6jEBP About time, if there aren’t opps 2use the $$ Mar 19, 2012

Money Market Funds

·  @MarcHochstein Thanks, I found the CFA Institutes comment today, and their view is similar 2 mine in some ways: http://t.co/8yPLcXfX $$ Mar 22, 2012

·  @MarcHochstein investment restrictions moved back to 2008 norms. The ability 2 have credit events frees MMFs to pursue best advantage $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  @MarcHochstein My idea will work 4 MMFs using inv policies prior 2 2008. The MMF folks aren’t earning $$ now, but they could with + Mar 21, 2012

·  @MarcHochstein After reading this: http://t.co/aUoaN4kb Ask them, what if you traded Merkel’s idea 4 a loosening of investment rules? $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  @MarcHochstein 1 more thing; if they have any sympathy toward my idea, I live near DC & would be willing to testify to the SEC $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  @MarcHochstein Does that help? I still think my proposal, one of the few compromise proposals out there would work best of all. Mar 20, 2012

·  @MarcHochstein Having been a life actuary, most regulatory progress happens when actuaries talk w/smarter regulators & forge compromise Mar 20, 2012

·  @MarcHochstein Does that help? MMFs are just saying “We r fine, nothing needs 2b done.” 2me that strategy prob loses. Mar 20, 2012

·  @MarcHochstein Would ask them if they have any way of stopping MMF runs on a private basis; this is the SEC goal; solve that, they leave Mar 20, 2012

·  @MarcHochstein More humbly, I would ask them if they really think they can beat the SEC. SEC’s proposal is horrible, but saying “no” loses Mar 20, 2012

·  @MarcHochstein Not so humbly, I would ask that u show them my proposal that I sent to the SEC, & ask them to back it http://t.co/vuNL8tQE Mar 20, 2012

Market Dynamics

·  The Easy Money’s Been Made, Four Reasons for Caution http://t.co/9kAXqEU4 E-zone calm, risk tolerance+ , VIX low, FOMC may move soon Mar 24, 2012

·  …and then all of a sudden, THE BULLS WENT BERZERK! http://t.co/bJKCVJha Lots of bullishness out there, though Howard Marks thought otherwise Mar 21, 2012

·  @byrneseyeview That’s true, & I did a presentation on that. One more complicating factor were financials, which looked cheap but weren’t $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  @byrneseyeview Found it. Here: http://t.co/YupRW6yD It’s on a number of topics; it was well-received $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Contra: The Biggest Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of http://t.co/0tzkPyiA Value can’t b a bubble. Growth can b a bubble. Growth & ROE meanrevert Mar 21, 2012

·  Is this time really different? http://t.co/eePs0aIV It’s never different. It’s always different. Profit margins will mean-revert; Q is when Mar 21, 2012

·  Biggs boosts bullish bets on stocks to 90% net long http://t.co/5fYQDhUC Won’t be the first 2 say this, but makes me doubt the rally $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  The Ax is Back http://t.co/B1j3f7nH @reformedbroker Reduced profits on Wall Street translates into reduced perks, bonuses & jobs $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Public Companies: The End Is Near http://t.co/KejHwYDu There r still advantages 2being publicly traded, but has eroded since Sarbox, etc $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  S&P 500 Rises to Four-Year High as Apple Plans Dividend http://t.co/RnBf9yEw $AAPL raises the div yld on the S&P 500 by 0.08%. Big! $$ Mar 19, 2012

·  Shares and shibboleths http://t.co/CspyJCNX The equity premium over a diversified portfolio of investment grade bonds is ~1%/yr IMO $$ Mar 19, 2012

·  Hubble, Bubble, Index Trouble http://t.co/2q3CPx4g Been saying this for years, indexing changes market dynamics, what happens @ reversal? $$ Mar 18, 2012

Politics

·  Why Are Your Neighbors Just Like You? http://t.co/0lcPOuLZ On the demise of really knowing your neighbors; we try 2 reach out; few others do Mar 24, 2012

·  @traderscrucible @interfluidity My blog (& Steve’s) have always had a strong public policy emphasis. Dreaming, but we suggest better policy. Mar 23, 2012

·  Agent Based Models http://t.co/0etJ20fL “Why not keep it simple, and just say, you pay an asset tax for every dollar over $100B?” $$ Mar 23, 2012

·  The Warren Buffett Chain Letter http://t.co/31FFSrmm Draconian adjustments. What Buffett did & didn’t say. 3% deficit ejects Congress $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Migration of sovereign debt from private hands to public institutions http://t.co/rQbDTXg3 &the debt sits til liquidity is needed -> crisis! Mar 21, 2012

·  To Stay On Top, The US Must Invest In Research Universities http://t.co/P4kyUqY0 FD: + $INTC; do it w/yr own $$ not taxes; c my comment Mar 20, 2012

·  RT @BarbarianCap: “cnbc: California Cities Scrambling to Avoid Becoming Insolvent” > the die was cast years ago; clowns, path depende … Mar 20, 2012

·  Stopping the National Debt: A Movement Led By a Cowboy, a Colonel, & a Citizens’ Cavalry http://t.co/frqAXCpy Natl Debt Relief Amendment Mar 20, 2012

·  Who is REALLY paying in the $25bil TBTF mortgage settlement http://t.co/T2h1B5CO $5B from banks, rest MBS holders eg pension plans, insurers Mar 19, 2012

·  The JOBS Act: Plutocracy in Action http://t.co/Fjo3Ppet Another article on the previous topic; don’t downgrade information quality $$ Mar 19, 2012

·  Small Biz Jobs Act Is a Bipartisan Bridge Too Far http://t.co/AwBXg184 Would not mess w/securities laws in that way to create growth $$ Mar 19, 2012

·  Public Unions Send Medical Bills to Taxpayers http://t.co/Lb2XgAv9 CA Sup Ct foolishly makes healthcare nonreducible. CA will die $$ Mar 18, 2012

·  As Unions Lose Their Grip, Indiana Lures Manufacturing Jobs http://t.co/vj177CT2 Like my article that few like http://t.co/WgdN7Mmq $$ Mar 18, 2012

·  Pension Legislation Could Cut Contributions, Hike Taxes http://t.co/Tj1UlUz8 Stupid proposals that weaken DB pensions, companies r strongnow Mar 18, 2012

Regulation

·  Where is the Center for Audit Quality When We Actually Could Use It? http://t.co/jWt09bcw JOBS Act: destroy info reliability to create jobs Mar 23, 2012

·  Fed’s Fisher Says ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ Problem Remains http://t.co/eLvHGmXt Richard Fisher favors breakup of the biggest banks. $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  @carney just read your piece on the net capital rule. Similar to my piece last November http://t.co/tl28NPku Good piece. $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Top Court’s Patent Rejection Alarms the Biotech Industry http://t.co/oK11WlvR ’bout time we forced a more fundamental review of patents Mar 21, 2012

Economics

·  Solar’s 80% Plunge Hurts Utilities From Hawaii to Spain http://t.co/m9eACVTp Overcapacity drives down prices of PV panels for now. $$ Mar 21, 2012

·  Mean Time Between Failures http://t.co/zkT0z9cX The “recovery” is getting long in the tooth, eg it may end soon; graph: http://t.co/xOHA1IYA Mar 20, 2012

·  Obama’s tax hikes threaten a new US recession http://t.co/uNHwBpeJ Looking @ 4 more years of divided govt & stalemate $$ #debtbombgrows Mar 20, 2012

·  @The_Dumb_Money I would have liked to see the Banks/Etc. who owned the servicers bear more of the cost $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  Partial equilibrium intuitions about choice http://t.co/215kIrmS @interfluidity more difficult to solve general equilibrium Qs than partial Mar 19, 2012

·  Understanding the New Price of Oil http://t.co/TaMTaneR No surprise here; most cheap oil has been found, the price of oil should rise $$ Mar 18, 2012

Miscellaneous

·  @merrillmatter Factoid: 100,000,000,000 to 1 for a monkey to type the word “banana” from random typewriter jumping Mar 21, 2012

·  Is a Calorie a Calorie? http://t.co/4hyTfSvr Yes, but different nutrients come w/calories. Also, a unit of fat has 2x cals vs carbs/protein Mar 21, 2012

·  Madoff’s Lament: I Was An Honest Money Manager Once http://t.co/OGp2xRHR The outside world should ignore Madoff now. Attention feeds him. Mar 21, 2012

·  Trust no one http://t.co/cFYBkCA7 & http://t.co/ILP0dPlA Independent & regular journalists face conflicts of interest in giving speeches $$ Mar 20, 2012

·  On Slime and Water http://t.co/8iezy0FK Pink Slime in burgers, and shortages of potable water in most of the globe, except Canada & US. $$ Mar 18, 2012

·  The NSA Is Building the Country’s Biggest Spy Center (Watch What You Say) http://t.co/iUsN5D0t Time to increase encryption key sizes $$ Mar 18, 2012

·  @TimABRussell I always read all the books I review; in rare cases when I don’t, I tell readers that I skimmed it. $$ Mar 18, 2012

Central Banking

• Norway Faces Housing Bubble as Krone Steals Policy Agenda http://t.co/15hzb0So By cheapening the currency Norway gets an asset bubble $$ Mar 17, 2012
• Unintended Consequences http://t.co/eLrKtCJc Sprott suggests that the financial system has a chemical dependency on the Central Banks. $$ Mar 17, 2012
• Is the bond market tightening for the Fed? http://t.co/iRSerA8X The bond market is larger than the Fed; they can’t control the curve $$ Mar 17, 2012
• Germany Turns Up Pressure on ECB http://t.co/w2yyfvU1 Difficult to see how the liquidity drains out of the ECB ~3 years from now $$ Mar 13, 2012
• China central bank news conference on policy, yuan http://t.co/w8cy5K1Z & http://t.co/XcIFAbvb Japan buys Yuan, don’t think it means much Mar 13, 2012
• Bond market certainly did not like the FOMC statement. “Don’t worry about energy prices, we got it all under control.” $$ #fuelinginfltion Mar 13, 2012

Investment Banking

• Why banks will continue to rip off clients http://t.co/oTT9fd2i Conflicts on Wall Street, especially at $GS. Big guys know that. So what? Mar 17, 2012
• Goldman Sachs’s long history of duping its clients http://t.co/2sXmKl0D Tells the story of how $GS foxed its way out of Penn Central CP $$ Mar 17, 2012
• The CMBS maturity wall is here http://t.co/GrcEm1KO I remember buying CMBS deals 11-12 years ago. Bullet loans weak if can’t refinance $$ Mar 17, 2012
• Goldman Roiled by Op-Ed Loses $2.2B for Shareholders http://t.co/yz0f0oLy A passing matter; of course IBs have conflicts of interest #duh Mar 17, 2012

China

• Bo’s Ides of March http://t.co/mnKFU8Zx Not so much a move to the right as a statement against being flashy and self-promoting $$ Mar 17, 2012
• Chinese Economy Already in ‘Hard Landing,’ JPMorgan’s Mowat Says http://t.co/kwFW2Ty6 Cyclical industries will produce less in China 2012. Mar 17, 2012
• China’s official admission of slowing commerce activities http://t.co/br7H4D2o When a long trend changes, often moves further than expected Mar 17, 2012
• China’s fixed asset investment growth moderating http://t.co/CEl5mZTc “Growth in real estate and manufacturing projects remains steady.” $$ Mar 13, 2012
• GMO: Something’s Fishy in China http://t.co/DO8v4w8p Goes through the 10 signs of a bubble; finds that Chinese economy has most of them $$ Mar 13, 2012
• US and Europe Move on China Minerals http://t.co/xyGsdkDq WTO ruled against China in January, pressing similar case 17 rare-earth metals Mar 13, 2012
• Another call for an end to China driven industrial commodities “super-cycle” http://t.co/VAd5gR0D Investment is way too high & unproductive Mar 13, 2012

Rest of the World

• Sarkozy’s Yield Drop at Risk With Hollande Victory http://t.co/ti25ozdq Surprise, if Hollande cares for poor in France, E-Zone suffers $$ Mar 17, 2012
• Saudi Arabia Lifts Curtain on Diplomacy as Syria Killings Spur King to Act http://t.co/H8g8D5nG Favors 85% Sunnis over ruling 15% Alawites Mar 13, 2012
• How about those Japanese net-net’s? http://t.co/SAZEcofy Making money in very ill-known small companies in Japan $$ Mar 13, 2012
• The Islamic World’s Quiet Revolution http://t.co/ChNksuFm They’re having fewer children, which I already noted here: http://t.co/KnOGFeOA $$ Mar 13, 2012
• Portugal Yield at 13% Says Greek Deal Not Unique http://t.co/bPBconfk After Greece, the next places to watch are Portugal & Spain. $$ Mar 13, 2012
• Iran-Israel History Suggests a Different Future http://t.co/M1IzxuuB I never knew that Israel sold weapons to Iran in the ’80s. $$ Mar 13, 2012

Financial Sector

• MetLife CEO’s Stress Test http://t.co/YaVV4GMp $MET doesn’t deserve to be treated as a systemically risky firm. Long liabilities protect Mar 17, 2012
• Assurant Falls as California Seeks Rate Cuts http://t.co/d0OcDS09 FD: long $AIZ; this is overrated; ability of the commissioner limited $$ Mar 17, 2012
• Felix Salmon At Columbia Journalism School: Don’t Blame Journalists For Failing To Prevent Financial Crisis http://t.co/0LrCwisB true, but Mar 13, 2012
• Journalists, even if they understood what was going on in the finl mkts would face a tough time writing warnings in the midst of boom $$ Mar 13, 2012
• US Government Agencies Comparing Notes On Algo Feeds http://t.co/15oAxpn9 Little speed advantages w/econ data can lead to big profits #SEC Mar 13, 2012
• Marketview:Point of Reference http://t.co/Xlp5jczH “4 the 1st time this yr I can feel the true bullish sentiment among the investing public” Mar 13, 2012
• Banks foreclosing on churches in record numbers http://t.co/fR3Ro9CJ Frankly, I am surprised that banks lend to some churches. $$ Mar 13, 2012
• Banks Buy Treasuries at Seven Times Pace in 2011 http://t.co/SDKsJIUB What else to do with all the excess liquidity & weak borrowing $$ Mar 13, 2012

US Government-Related

• Pension Benefit Costs Cut by Record 43 States, Study Says http://t.co/B8ZRg4gZ State take actions to reduce benefits to active employees Mar 17, 2012
• Best Treasury Forecaster Says 10-Year Yield to Drop From Highs http://t.co/ma8YoN4u Don’t be too sure about Treasury rates rising $$ Mar 17, 2012
• International Demand for U.S. Assets Rises http://t.co/FwdXqrWH As the E-Zone gets worse, demand for US debt improves. $$ Mar 17, 2012

Investing

• Temporary Hedges eventually force Deleveraging http://t.co/0jVSWRzw On Energy Future Holdings, & why predicting the future is tough $$ Mar 17, 2012
• Cyclicals persistent underperformance http://t.co/KkJ2q05p Cyclicals started underperforming in August. Relatively they never recovered. $$ Mar 17, 2012
• Magnetic Fields http://t.co/S6VYIe5Y Good post. This graph is worth a look: http://t.co/EBhPh6ZN May help explain recent lost decade $$ Mar 13, 2012
• Stock Compensation, Tax Law, Financial Reporting and Facebook’s IPO http://t.co/ULyVLNkr Future dilution may pressure $FB shares $$ Mar 13, 2012
• A Value Investor’s Take on Shorting http://t.co/cZYueqGH Tactical discipline, not structural, b/c market can go nuts. Can help hedge $$ Mar 13, 2012

Miscellaneous

• Considering Bankruptcy? Head to the Mall http://t.co/UvgEArMj Legal services offered for simple situations in mall locations. $$ Mar 13, 2012

Comments

• No significant changes from last time.  They do note that energy prices are rising, but they don’t see that affecting inflation.
• In my opinion, I don’t think holding down longer-term rates on the highest-quality debt will have any impact on lower quality debts, which is where most of the economy finances itself.
• Also, the reinvestment in Agency MBS should have limited impact because so many owners are inverted, or ineligible for financing backed by the GSEs, and implicitly the government, even with the recently announced refinancing changes.
• The key variables on Fed Policy are capacity utilization, unemployment, inflation trends, and inflation expectations.  As a result, the FOMC ain’t moving rates up, absent increases in employment, or a US Dollar crisis.  Labor employment is the key metric.
• The Fed is out of good policy tools, so it will use bad policy tools instead, and for longer than before.
• Do they want the yield on 30 year TIPS to go negative?  Looks that way.
• GDP growth is not improving much if at all, and the unemployment rate improvement comes more from discouraged workers.  Inflation has moderated, but whether it will stay that way is another question.

Questions for Dr. Bernanke:

• Is it possible that you don’t really know what would have worked to solve the Great Depression, and you are just committing an entirely new error that will result in a larger problem for us later?
• Why do think extending the period of accommodation by a little more than a year will have any significant effect on the economy, aside from stock and bond prices?
• Discouraged workers are a large factor in the falling unemployment rate. Why do you think the economy is doing well?
• Couldn’t increased unemployment be structural, after all, there is a lot more competition from labor in emerging markets?
• Why do you think that holding down longer-term rates on the highest-quality debt will have any impact on lower quality debts, which is where most of the economy finances itself?
• Why will reinvestment in Agency MBS help the economy significantly?  Doesn’t that only help solvent borrowers on the low end of housing, who don’t really need the help?
• Isn’t stagflation a possibility here?  I mean, no one expected it in the ‘70s either.
• Could we end up with another debt bubble from keeping short rates so low?
• If the Fed ever does shrink its balance sheet, what effect will it have on the banks?

This period of the Aleph Blog covers May through July of 2010.  The one big series that I started in that era was “The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager” series.  The idea was to describe how a neophyte was thrust into an unusual position and thrived, after some difficulties.

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part I

How I learned the basics, and survived 9/11.

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part II

How I learned to trade bonds, and engage in intelligent price discovery.

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part III

What is the new issue bond allocation process like, and what games get played around it?

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part IV

On the games that can be played in dealing with brokers.

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part V

On selling hot sectors, and dealing with the dirty details of unusual bonds.

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part VI

On dealing with ignorant clients, and taking out-of-consensus risks.

Then there was the continuation of “The Rules” series:

The Rules, Part XIII, subpart A

On the biases the come from yield-seeking.

The Rules, Part XIII, subpart B

Repeat after me, “Yield is not free.”

The Rules, Part XIII, subpart C

Reaching for yield always has risks, but the penalties are most intense at the top of the cycle, when credit spreads are tight, and the Fed’s loosening cycle is nearing its end.  It is at that point that a good bond manager tosses as much risk as he can overboard without bringing yield so low that his client screams.

The Rules, Part XV

Securitization segments a security into liquid and illiquid components.

The Rules, Part XVI

“Governments are smaller than markets; markets are smaller than cultures.“

A fundamental rule of mine, but one with a lot of punch.

The Rules, Part XVII

On the differences between panics and booms.

The Journal of Failed Finance Research

Much research fails quietly, but other researchers don’t learn about the dead ends.  Better that they should learn of the failures, and avoid the dead ends.

How I Minimize Taxes on my Stock Investing

Sell low tax cost lots and donate appreciated stock to charities.

Place Political Limits on Overly Compliant Central Banks

Gives a simple rule to control central banks so that they avoid the present troubles.

Yield, the Oldest Scam in the Books

Yes, offering yield is the oldest way to trick people into handing over their money.

A Summary of my Writings on Analyzing Insurance Stocks

A good place to get started if one wants to get up to speed on insurance stocks, but there is a lot there.

Economics is Hard; the Bad Assumptions of Economists Makes it Harder

Going over Kartik Athreya’s letter criticizing nonprofessional economics bloggers.  Why the math behind macroeconomics and microeconomics doesn’t work.

Why Are We The Lucky Ones?

When you are a part of a small broker-dealer, all manner of harebrained deals get offered to you.  This explores three of them.  Note: management did not ask my opinion on the fourth deal, and that is a large part of why they no longer exist.

One more note: the guy who was going to pledge $5 million of stock in example 2 for a $1 million loan?  The stock is worth $7,000 today.

Watch the State of the States

The economics of the states tells us a lot more about the national health because they can’t print money to buy national debts.  (Though they can can raid accrual accounts…)

We Might Be Dead In The Long-Run, But What Do We Leave Our Children?

My view is that neoclassical economists are wrong.  Aggregate demand has failed for four reasons:

1. Overleveraged consumers will not readily buy.
2. Citizens of overleveraged governments will not readily spend, for fear of what may come later from the taxman, or from fear of future unemployment.
3. Aggregate demand is mean-reverting.  It overshot because of the buildup of debt, and is now in the process of returning to more sustainable levels.  The same is true of private debt levels, which are being reduced to levels that will allow consumers to buy more freely once again.
4. When the financial system is in trouble, people get skittish.

The Market Goes to the Dogs, Which Chase Their Tail Risk

Complex and expensive hedging solutions, many of which embed some credit risk, can be less effective than lowering leverage, and (horrors) holding some cash.

Fishing at a Paradox. No Toil, No Thrift, No Fish, No Paradox.

This one had its detractors, because I believe the paradox of thrift is wrong.  Too much aggregation, and it does not allow the dynamism of the economy to adjust over time, even from severe conditions.

Here’s the news of the past week:

US Economy

• How the Government Lies About the Real Inflation Rate http://t.co/g6E4KxV5 I agree inf is understated, but by 1-2%, not 6-8%/yr $$ Mar 09, 2012
• Tax Hunt Pushes Global Wealthy Into Offshore Trusts for Children in US http://t.co/l53hjFH1 Many clever ways 2cheat the taxman #thinkahead Mar 07, 2012
• How Much Do Income Taxes Affect Our Behavior? http://t.co/mADKt7a7 Answer: not much, but people favor lower marginal tax rates anyway $$ Mar 07, 2012
• On Politics, Social Security and Spine http://t.co/N8O1Eu6h @brucekrasting on the Disability Income Trust & what it implies 4 politics $$ Mar 07, 2012
• Why Young People Might (Eventually) Like to Buy a House http://t.co/yC9FX7H5 On the low end, this makes sense at present. $$ Mar 06, 2012
• Getting Ready to Buy a House http://t.co/6aqzzPmI Megan McArdle notes how low down payments r still prevalent; system not clean @ present $$ Mar 06, 2012
• Warren Buffett vs. the profiteers of doom http://t.co/02XgQ9tB Unless the US fails in entire, Buffett will be right & the scaremongers wrong Mar 06, 2012
• NACM credit managers’ index trade credit increase http://t.co/LUdFkYTZ Businesses r more confident in extending credit; coincident indicator Mar 04, 2012
• @DavidSchawel Then they are having materially better performance than the FHA; I still think housing prices have further to fall on hi end Mar 04, 2012
• Your Share of Fannie, Freddie Losses: $1,300 http://t.co/h9KdR5d3 Even considering what they are paying the US in dividends, they lose. $$ Mar 03, 2012

Federal Reserve

• @GonzaloLiraSPG Borrow, not print. Fed becomes huge hedge fund 2 arb risky debt spreads. Not in favor of this, but it is happening in small Mar 09, 2012
• Thought experiment: What would happen if the Fed borrowed enough money to buy up all of the MBS, CMBS, ABS, Agys, Corps, Munis, etc? $$ Mar 09, 2012
• What the Fed is Considering Doing in Layman’s Terms http://t.co/dXZTMXL2 Levering up, taking more risk in an effort to reduce long yields $$ Mar 09, 2012
• Bernanke Seen Accepting Faster Inflation as Fed Seeks to Boost Employment http://t.co/AyixImcf Fed is asymmetric, only fights unemployment Mar 08, 2012
• http://t.co/DR8SLua2 NY Fed never buys the on-the-run and near the run nominal bonds, does the opposite for TIPS, pushes up implied CPI $$ Mar 07, 2012
• Fed’s Money Monopoly Endangers Liberty and Peace http://t.co/TGhcvm8O Unsound money encourage governments 2b graspy & warlike $$ Mar 07, 2012
• Central bank policy driving corporate spreads http://t.co/YvV1djQb When the Fed offers cheap financing, risk asset flourish $$ Mar 06, 2012
• Woodlands congressman battling Federal Reserve’s power http://t.co/iUiwTimH Inflation only, expand role of Regional Feds; Fisher likes it $$ Mar 04, 2012
• The eventual unwinding of QE: why it’s ignored and what it could mean http://t.co/BPRMaGaU The Fed will be reluctant 2 shrink the Bal Sht $$ Mar 03, 2012

Eurozone

• Draghi Lays Groundwork for ECB Stimulus Exit as Inflation Takes Spotlight http://t.co/0y5znzjH So u can’t get inflation thru debt growth? Mar 09, 2012
• Bond And CDS Arbitrage Opportunities? http://t.co/uRDRh59G Sov CDS “cheap” 2 bonds b/c of a lack of trust in the default trigger $$ Mar 09, 2012
• Portugal. Boo! http://t.co/ZED0TWOx Mar 09, 2012
• Draghi Headache: Inflation Heating Up in Europe http://t.co/RQqvvOiC Draghi raised the 2012 forecasts for inflation to 2.1%-2.7% $$ Mar 08, 2012
• Rift Grows Between Germany’s Bundesbank and ECB http://t.co/trwAlyWm Wise Buba will take pain where ECB wil not. Follow this it will destroy Mar 08, 2012
• Goldman’s Secret Greece Loan Reveals Sinners http://t.co/eMzOvs2X When u conspire 2b shady, u work w/the shady, who will cheat u2 $GS $$ Mar 07, 2012
• French-German Border Shapes More Than Territoryhttp://nyti.ms/zDuqpi Culture matters. Policy matters. Similar people yield different results Mar 06, 2012
• Everyone Loves Mario http://t.co/2sDYYNXh Draghi is popular at present, but this will not end well, b/c bank dependence on the ECB will tell Mar 04, 2012
• The optimistic view of Europe http://t.co/xtsVrfrY Rogoff argues that these are the birth pangs of the USE: the United States of Europe $$ Mar 04, 2012
• IMF Set to Curb Funds for Greece http://t.co/XvNhtAcm IMF has 2 much exposure to EZ-fringe; could it b global system hit peak debt? $$ Mar 04, 2012

Economics

• An interesting model of asset bubbles http://t.co/cHcFGHht Follows the debt-fueled model of asset bubbles, with momentum tossed in $$ Mar 09, 2012
• Model Thinking Notes I from Stanford Class http://t.co/qHD0UCzt Those applying models to political questions predict better than others $$ Mar 09, 2012
• Investors Crave a Taste of the Island http://t.co/fjWsoVDR Amazing how reducing deficits and cleaning up finances can bring growth $$ Mar 09, 2012
• Cicero quote of the week http://t.co/Y1e6KKYL The budget should b balanced, the Treasury should b refilled, public debt should b reduced… Mar 08, 2012
• Kindleberger’s Universal Bubble and Crash Scenario http://t.co/Og2VYsX8 We are overindebted, should we be surprised that we face a crisis? Mar 08, 2012
• After 3 years, we’re all hooked on free money http://t.co/oKRDzSPD Low base rates are creating a new kind of inflation, sad but true $$ Mar 08, 2012

China

• Contra: China Inflation May Provide Room for Stimulus http://t.co/Qds1uBwx That is, if you can believe the Chinese inflation statistics $$ Mar 09, 2012
• Asian banks may b bust; tiger still bites http://t.co/2mW40PMJ Economic consultancy Lombard Street warned China is financial house of cards Mar 08, 2012
• According to Credit Suisse, the global commodity demand has peaked http://t.co/GNXsHZwL China cannot increase its demand further $$ Mar 08, 2012
• China Life Discount Swells on World Growth Woes http://t.co/Jl27DtCk I still don’t get China Life and its business model; avoid b careful Mar 08, 2012
• China needs to enhance ability to win ‘local wars’, Premier says http://t.co/THUVeHVe Dominance of the South China Sea is desired $$ Mar 07, 2012
• China’s State of the Union http://t.co/D2E2yaH0 China has fewer options by the day. GDP is shrinking because much production is worthless $$ Mar 04, 2012
• +1 $$ RT @The_Analyst: @AlephBlog ha, newsflash: people whose livlihood depends on strong real estate market say market is strong… Mar 04, 2012
• End of The World not nigh, say developers http://t.co/JTDwPtT3 A lot of cross-currents in Chinese property markets, suspect trouble $$ Mar 04, 2012
• China’s Politics in Rare Bloom http://t.co/kmDFW8ou A rare season where the hidden politics of China become publicly visible $$ Mar 04, 2012

Miscellaneous

• ‘Internet-in-a-Suitcase’: The Web Technology That Wants You to Be Free http://t.co/UXTNOHDo Not live yet, but coming 2a revolution near u Mar 09, 2012
• Wal-Mart Therapy Tried as Pentagon Copes With Traumatized Troops http://t.co/7YIU2yqJ long $WMT | PTSD? Trips 2 WMT may help, really. $$ Mar 08, 2012
• US public schools sell empty classroom seats abroad http://t.co/qTuefNqV Solves a tough problem 4 rural districts w/falling enrollment $$ Mar 08, 2012
• US Top Destination for Christian, Buddhist Immigrants, Study Says http://t.co/gZW6T62o Interesting commentary on religion & migration $$ Mar 08, 2012
• The Confucius quote is a lot like Hillel’s “Do not do unto others what you would not hav… http://t.co/XplJNuew Mar 07, 2012
• RE: @dcrothers This is too important to be left to preschools only. Mothers and fathers must take an active role in t… http://t.co/4je2nZj2 Mar 06, 2012

Markets

• Insurers to re-examine risk, capital structure in 2012 – PwC http://t.co/1Cl8bTc1 Low ins co valuations begets low interest for M&A $$ Mar 09, 2012
• Contra: Apollo Wants to ‘Be the New Bank’ in 2012, Co-Founder Rowan Says http://t.co/HjfMo5xx Might work in short-run; dangerous idea $$ Mar 09, 2012
• Tactical asset allocation — Another ripoff http://t.co/NVCwvCCQ During bear markets, TAA gains temporary cache as market timing $$ Mar 08, 2012
• Think Twice, Even Thrice, Before Trading http://t.co/618YZMAB Most of the time, trading leads to losses, people like the illusion of control Mar 08, 2012
• Trade to improve your portfolio http://t.co/fINnnvh1 Features thoughts of those who agree. When will average people listen to the good guys? Mar 08, 2012
• The mystery of the vanishing stock trader http://t.co/y0jvQ6F8 Volume is disappearing in Canada. That’s probably healthy; buy Canada $$ Mar 07, 2012
• @CflGator My simple solution to all of that is that only hedgers may initiate trades, speculators may not trade with speculators. $$ Mar 07, 2012
• Contra: Managed money goes LONG oil http://t.co/SartTMgC In mid-2008, there weren’t as many speculative longs & the price was far higher $$ Mar 07, 2012
• Companies Float Up to $20 Billion in Bonds http://t.co/CJTnGiTE If that much is getting digested easily, maybe the corp rally continues Mar 07, 2012
• @lcsonka39 @hedgefundinvest I did use the words “if” and “maybe.” I am far enough away that I’m not sure, but I have been through that b4 $$ Mar 07, 2012
• US Insurers Face $2 Billion in Claims From Tornadoes, Risk Modeler Says http://t.co/N6vW1uIn I would expect a rough weather year $$ Mar 07, 2012
• IBM’s Watson Computer Gets Wall Street Job http://t.co/qP2mlQDZ Bloodless. Soulless. Brilliant. Ultimate Risk Manager or Disaster Creator Mar 07, 2012
• Judge: Jefferson County Chapter 9 Case Can Continue http://t.co/MGn2sDTD Remember Ch 9 only gives breathing room, Empee benes relief $$ Mar 06, 2012
• Do You Need to Buy Big Oil Stocks? http://t.co/FlPMNBXN Arends: As fuel prices soar (again), it may make sense to invest where you spend Mar 06, 2012
• How To Make Financial Content http://t.co/NRLLm00B Funny takes from @reformedbroker on how various news organizations write their copy $$ Mar 06, 2012
• Demographic trends will depress portfolio returns, this researcher warns http://t.co/yDXh8J8C Arnott makes u look at the real economy $$ Mar 06, 2012
• Stocks Cheaper Than Any U.S. Peak in 23 Years http://t.co/wZAnn7Ij Key Q: what will profit margins do? Only will 2 use capital is scarce Mar 06, 2012
• Milwaukee’s Home-Grown Managers Shun Fads http://t.co/oSzOOjMh My hometown. People there are rational and not given to fads. $$ Mar 06, 2012
• Dan Zwirn, the Man Who Fell to Earth http://t.co/NmgWpqRm Grew hedge fund fast, inadequate operational support, scandal, business dies $$ Mar 04, 2012

International (rest of the world)

• One Year Later, Japan City Sees Light—in a Long Tunnel http://t.co/3JfbCqWG Too much $$ being tossed at too few people in short-run Mar 09, 2012
• Australian vs Canadian property http://t.co/7Q3pdBP1 Argues that Canada is in trouble, Australia in worse shape but a better economy for now Mar 07, 2012
• Faros Trading: Yen to Weaken http://t.co/cSAp3Fra & http://t.co/aJkOCcXQ Idea that the yen may weaken is gaining traction $$ Mar 06, 2012
• Canadian envoy to Iceland sparks loonie controversy http://t.co/QZfE9Kvi Hey, I would link to the loonie if I could, smart idea $$ Mar 06, 2012
• BRIC Investors Losing as Statists Forgo Earnings http://t.co/kuntGmOJ Worrisome trend, but political influence on firms tends 2b cyclical Mar 04, 2012
• Why Japan Is Looking Good http://t.co/trw811WG Argues that QE weakens the yen, leading to better corp performance of f low valuation $$ Mar 04, 2012
• London Is Eating New York’s Lunch http://t.co/UBEFijF7 London has a greater share of international transactions; New York too regulated $$ Mar 04, 2012

Politics

• Romney campaign says losing nomination would take ‘act of God’ http://t.co/Q0VS1qRV Whom God would destroy, he first makes proud #hubris $$ Mar 07, 2012
• Paralyzed Kids Employ Florida Lobbyists With Millions at Stake http://t.co/fmS5UIHu When there r damage caps, pleading 4 special exceptions Mar 07, 2012
• Hoping for a deadlocked convention that turns to Huckabee, or someone like him http://t.co/OCRBjpXF Mar 03, 2012
• @Nonrelatedsense I do not trust Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich. They change positions too easily. I may not like everything about Huckabee+ Mar 04, 2012
• @Nonrelatedsense or Ron Paul, but they don’t shift their views as much. Huckabee would be acceptable to both wings of the GOP. $$ Mar 04, 2012

Finance Business

• Breaking Ranks: Former Broker Turns Bomb Thrower http://t.co/q1vpz9dh @reformedbroker interview previews his book: http://t.co/Yigg2sEE $$ Feb 24, 2012
• Why CLO managers continue to struggle http://t.co/a13j8jVG Low issuance, warehousing is tough, need more subordination, fewer senior buyers Feb 24, 2012
• My Favorite Quote from Baupost’s 2011 Annual Letter http://t.co/VOvbqab3 DIstressed bond mgrs get itchy in bull phase & buy new junk @ par Feb 24, 2012
• SEC IFRS Plan Endorsement http://t.co/8xguvs2G IFRS is not worth giving up comparability or sovereignty for. Project is a total loser. $$ Feb 24, 2012
• Very cool, congrats RT @Finovate: @AlphaClone to offer Alternative Alpha ETF from U.S. Bancorp http://t.co/srufb3qd Feb 23, 2012
• SEC May Ticket Speeding Traders http://t.co/oNCbF7pa Worthy of an experiment like the kind they did to study the “uptick rule” $$ Feb 23, 2012
• AQR’s Aaron Brown on Red-Blooded Risk http://t.co/ZM7hn5P4 When I was a bond mgr, could sense some aspects of risk listening 2 broker’s tone Feb 23, 2012
• The Volcker Rule is not going to bring your house back http://t.co/ADKMABfE Prop trading was not a leading cause of the financial crisis. $$ Feb 23, 2012
• Pimco Said to Quit Mortgage Bond Group http://t.co/YsQZs1IE Feels wrong parties (their clients) r paying 4 bad servicing,instead of banks Feb 23, 2012
•  If you want, I can dig up an old research piece on analyst coverage — there are basically 3 factors that explain 70… http://t.co/tBinshJJ Feb 21, 2012
• Stressed VAR is still a “protractor in the jungle” http://t.co/GRGgwvsd Risk management sh/not b done w/central measures but stress tests $$ Feb 21, 2012
• How One Company Teaches Employees the ABCs of Finance http://t.co/fqO19foq More companies should do this, they would b more profitable. $$ Feb 18, 2012
• Gross Fund at 66% Premium Shows Pimco Allure in Quest for Yield http://t.co/LY8Rv4SS Yield illusion distracts many investors. Avoid it. $$ Feb 17, 2012
• Read:Which three of DOL’s new 401(k) rules represent the biggest land mines for financial advisors and plan sponsors? http://t.co/ZVoMPmQu Feb 15, 2012
• The 400% Man http://t.co/nrRhYIZl Wish I could meet some of his disappointed investors who came to kick the tires and were disappointed. Feb 15, 2012
• Contra:Foot-Dragging on IFRS Decision Could Strip SEC of Power http://t.co/VNUFhWD5 The US could lose representation on IASB. Good, drop out Feb 14, 2012
• Notes from iGlobal’s Global Distressed Investing Summit: Part 2 http://t.co/9iOty0Iz Leveraged loan market seems to be in decent shape $$ Feb 14, 2012
• Pimco: $25 Billion Foreclosure Deal to Hit Pensions Harder Than Banks http://t.co/DKFtMI9B Gives MBS buyers a reason 2 sue originators $$ Feb 13, 2012
• Missing at MF: $1.6 Billion http://t.co/QSUMYbNO Included for the 1st time is roughly $700 million in client money residing in the UK $$ Feb 13, 2012
• Stockbrokers: A Guide to Private Placement Due Diligence http://t.co/tbwtu6Jy Illiquid investments are ways to cheat average people. $$ Feb 11, 2012
• Why illiquid? Can’t recover the commission otherwise.  Can deceive people that their investment is worth more than it… http://t.co/cYjvUhWx Feb 11, 2012

Market Strategy

• Jim Stack was right, and he’s still bullish http://t.co/GfEqtTKl Basically a forward P/E plus momentum argument, & lack of sharp falls $$ Feb 24, 2012
• S&P 500 Gets 9% Cheaper on Record Profits http://t.co/DWPGz5Y2 Makes a P/E argument; profit mrgns will eventually revert, may take a while Feb 23, 2012
• The dangers of dividend-paying stocks http://t.co/FymTmAAi Hint: they are stocks. No maturity date, no certain cash flow, low BK priority $$ Feb 23, 2012
• Falkenblog: Low Vol Commodity Timing Strategy http://t.co/M4FFRoCx Low volatility seems to work in a large number of areas, this is one $$ Feb 23, 2012
• Retro Investing—Look Back to Get Ahead http://t.co/vYiPCu9J The 50s, w/post-WWII financial repression, recurs as a current investing meme $$ Feb 22, 2012
• The Intelligent Investor: Are Index Funds Messing Up the Markets? http://t.co/VAoFtksw May also be traders following each other $$ Feb 21, 2012
• If history is any indication, high dividend stock outperformance should continue http://t.co/C5GaWmW8 Uses 40s & 50s as analogy $$ Feb 20, 2012
• Breakout or consolidation? http://t.co/GTSkBjIT Many market seem to be at inflection points. Which way will they go? Wildcards: EZone, China Feb 20, 2012
• RE: @alea_ Interesting analysis.  I would be wary of teasing too much out of the cluster analysis of sector correlati… http://t.co/zirdOJ8v Feb 18, 2012
• MORGAN STANLEY: January Exhibited This Tell-Tale Sign Of A Market Top http://t.co/IQqidpUE When everything rises at once, look out! $$ Feb 18, 2012
• Apple Stock May Not Be as Cheap as It Looks http://t.co/2dgfjfPq Earnings quality has declined, and so has the PE multiple $$ Feb 18, 2012
• @ampressman Common summary stat 4 acctg quality 4 $AAPL Net Operating Accruals / Assets, has been deteriorating 4 last 7 years + Feb 18, 2012
• @ampressman $AAPL acctg used to be very conservative, now modestly liberal by that statistic. It’s a bad direction, not a bad position, yet Feb 18, 2012
• Should the Rich Invest Like Colleges? http://t.co/M9OaPEPA Better question: what are your goals? Do you have an infinite horizon? $$ Feb 18, 2012
• High Yield Bonds as Equity Indicator | The Reformed Broker http://t.co/OXUtZrWG Meet my friends & former colleagues Ed Meigs & Sean Slein $$ Feb 17, 2012
• When Earnings Slow, Focus on Big Cap, Quality http://t.co/zjD3RPKA High quality is the place to be at present, credit cycle shifting some $$ Feb 16, 2012
• A Lesser Known Indicator http://t.co/8oivTJFl Cash enters market through IPOs, employee grants, & exits through cash buyouts, buybacks $$ Feb 16, 2012
• Parabolas have 2 end somewhere $$ RT @ReformedBroker: $AAPL sold off because people were getting impatient with how slowly it was moving up. Feb 15, 2012
• FPA Capital’s Bryan Beats Peers Embracing Oil Volatility http://t.co/7ebuGmrb A clever focus on absolute retruns, w/a long horizon $$ Feb 15, 2012
• Paulson Gives Activism a Go http://t.co/dkHb3cht Not as easy as it looks w/ $HIG. Acctg may not fairly capture variable liabilities $$ Feb 15, 2012
• RE: @SoberLook DB hedges its bets.  Average years rarely happen in high yield, they are either good or bad. http://t.co/0C51uulu Feb 14, 2012
• THE 1987 MYTH…. http://t.co/mHSU4nM3 “Illusion of stability within disequilibrium” Very well said, in one short phrase. $$ Feb 14, 2012
• America Inc. Faces Margin Stall http://t.co/RbqvqbT9 US companies have begun to see rising costs eat into the bottom line. Finally. $$ Feb 13, 2012
• Hulbert: Insiders Selling at Heavy Pace http://t.co/qOPk2cbY Just another straw blowing in the wind, but insiders usually have good sense $$ Feb 10, 2012

Greece

• Greek PSI outcomes tree: credit event probability at 93% http://t.co/jcLBc04c Clever grraphic shows high likelihood of Gk CDS triggering. $$ Feb 23, 2012
• The market is now pricing in Greek sovereign CDS trigger http://t.co/w5vJ42Fa Upfront prices for Greek CDS moving up $$ Feb 22, 2012
• Despite Pact, Unease Lingers for Greece http://t.co/Urp7mmag “Many Problems Remain Even Under Best-Case Scenarios” Shrink, shrink… $$ Feb 22, 2012
• Greek Rescue Is Not the End of the Story http://t.co/IOCVcCTb Won’t save Greece on its own & there r other fringe nations 2 deal with $$ Feb 20, 2012
• ECB Greek Plan May Hurt Bondholders While Triggering Debt Swaps http://t.co/Aya9urfV ECB may get better treaqtment than private holders $$ Feb 20, 2012
• So, what would your plan for Greece be? http://t.co/SAd2f28O Play the game, and let Keynes sneer @ u as u attempt 2 solve the impossible $$ Feb 18, 2012
• Greek Economy Shrinking Rapidly http://t.co/VzXi375M And it may shrink more rapidly depending on what the rest of Europe does $$ Feb 14, 2012

Eurozone

• ECB’s Mario Draghi magic corrupts bond markets http://t.co/r0ZCmYpb Banks become dependent on ECB, bank bondholders more subordinated $$ Feb 24, 2012
• European Banks May Tap ECB for $629 Billion Cash http://t.co/Re5TjLR5 “There is a ‘lose-lose’ air around the ECB’s auction next week,” $$ Feb 24, 2012
• The Eurozone should be prepared for a new government in France http://t.co/qGFPC20S And that govt will be more hostile to current actions $$ Feb 22, 2012
• Spain Sinks Deeper Into Periphery on Debt Rise http://t.co/wkuef6tS As debts grow higher, the probability of escape gets lower. $$ Feb 22, 2012
• Iron Lady Merkel Bucks German Street on Greek Aid http://t.co/Wc95xI47 Strategy working 4 now, but what if colleagues lose their seats? $$ Feb 20, 2012
• Moody’s Cuts European Sovereigns http://t.co/GvJuES7t Spain, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Malta all cut. France & UK -> neg outlook Feb 15, 2012
• Unlisted in euroland http://t.co/AQQrJMUf Didn’t catch this in Jan. Private bonds can offered 2 ECB as collateral; helps French banks $$ Feb 13, 2012

The Well-off Fringe Nations

• Icelandic Anger Brings Debt Forgiveness http://t.co/P4BH8HKN If the debt problem is not severe, austerity. If it is severe (Iceland) default Feb 22, 2012
• Nordic Currencies Stung in Crisis http://t.co/teorxG1P Much of the world, looking for a store of value, drive fringe currencies up $$ Feb 21, 2012
• Canada housing market: poised 4 ‘severe correction,’ George Athanassakos says http://t.co/05kaVIAD Canada is used to the boom/bust cycle $$ Feb 21, 2012
• @joshuademasi You’re right, but most of the fringe currencies are facing the same dilemma; who to favor, consumers vs exporters, etc… $$ Feb 21, 2012
• Israel Safest as Investors Discount War Threat http://t.co/3oXTlILj Well-capitalized banks & balanced economy w/much high tech $$ #warrisk Feb 20, 2012
• A hedge fund bets big on a Canadian mega quarry http://t.co/k7OZBC9u Property rights r tough here. What if an existing farmer tried this? $$ Feb 18, 2012
• Australia’s Gillard Urged to Increase Mortgage Purchases http://t.co/ylsCuvq4 A mistake, far better to let the market fail. $$ Feb 17, 2012
• You’re right, reminds me of an old piece I wrote: http://t.co/XkgO7z7A Thanks $$ RT @joshuademasi: The 5 stages of USD grieving ! Feb 15, 2012
• Norway’s Rate Policy Dilemma Pits Household Debt Against Krone ‘Headache’ http://t.co/Ud4FCOsI Cut rates, asset bubble grows, Krone weakens Feb 15, 2012

China

• Plan B for China’s Wealthy: Moving to the U.S., Europe http://t.co/X9jRPy6q Wealthy Chinese know their govt, thus the need for flight $$ Feb 22, 2012
• China’s FDI and Trade Outlook Horrible Says Commerce Spokesperson http://t.co/LIlvmxIL Hard 4 Comm Party 2command domestic consumption up $$ Feb 18, 2012
• ‘Mother of all bubbles’ will pop China stocks: GMO http://t.co/OMENKZOI Low prob: China successfully navigating soft landing out of a bubble Feb 18, 2012
• China’s excess exports turn negative http://t.co/CiLgTKqC Key Q: how will China grow its economy by stimulating domestic consumption? $$ #uh Feb 18, 2012
• Too many bearish on China, but I’m bearish also.  What to do? Seek out China bulls.  If their arguments sound dumb, d… http://t.co/vrhUIdsh Feb 17, 2012
• The Silent Victims of the U.S.-China Currency War http://t.co/6DXAnE3m Smaller nations get caught in crossfire of competitive devaluation $$ Feb 17, 2012
• China’s Military Spending to Double by 2015 http://t.co/5Va8kiLr I think it take some losses before DC takes this seriously. $$ Feb 17, 2012
• China’s Tenuous Hold on Peace http://t.co/dOFr68tL Tibet is restive, China blames its problems on the economic mismanagement of foreigners Feb 14, 2012
• Glimpses of a Chinese Town Under Lockdown http://t.co/AFoW0zsM some reporters managed to get there to document the heavy security presence Feb 14, 2012
• Liu Mingkang Outlines the Reforms China needs to Undertake http://t.co/L0cXMoIf Will the communist party willingly reduce its power in China Feb 13, 2012

Japan

• Japanese Equities Herald Return to Inflation http://t.co/rxlt5OhI If Japan bond market breaks, ructions will be felt the world over. $$ Feb 23, 2012
• Energy imports will pressure Japan’s trade deficit http://t.co/lieDm3T4 But, Japan has a current account surplus from its net foreign assets Feb 23, 2012
• Japan Suggests No Quick G-20 Deal on IMF Funding http://t.co/RZYF5EB2 non-European members of the IMF waiting on the Europeans to act $$ Feb 22, 2012
• Tokyo Small-Caps Set for Longest Win Streak http://t.co/mD3ySrzh Unnoticed but true, look @ this CEF: http://t.co/VcdMQDxL FD: long $JOF Feb 22, 2012
• Yen Slumps After Japan Expands Bond Buying http://t.co/L6yImwzC Competitive currency devaluations driving Forex $$ #beggarthyneighbor Feb 15, 2012

Iran

• Japan Refiners Said to Stall on Iran Deals http://t.co/uEq1DYtb Life is harder on those that need Iranian oil, like India, China, Japan $$ Feb 21, 2012
• Iran Says It Loaded Locally Made Fuel to Nuke http://t.co/6HkMaEFj Not sure I believe this, but if it’s true, the Israelis will know $$ Feb 15, 2012
• Iran presses ahead with dollar attack http://t.co/Hd4Qtnvz Unlikely to work, but it’s all they can do w/oil transport shut down $$ Feb 14, 2012
• Letter Writers Break Iranian Taboo http://t.co/M3NMfmk1 They are so desperate that they write the Ayatollah and criticize conditions. $$ Feb 14, 2012
• Iran Sanctions Tighten as Shippers Stop Loading http://t.co/ubEtI6om Risk goes up, shipping insurance premiums rise, shipping stops $$ Feb 13, 2012

Rest of the World

• Record Redemptions Loom Amid Akbank $1.3 Billion Loan Talks http://t.co/x5iDTSwE Never knew Turkish firms financed w/so much Short debt $$ Feb 18, 2012
• Chavez Missing $10 Billion a Month by Curbing State Oil Investment http://t.co/uTG1Z8d8 PDVSA falls behind Pemex? How low can you go? $$ Feb 15, 2012
• Chávez Opposition Faces Hard Election http://t.co/YBWi9PaW Chavez controls media & oil wealth; tough for Capriles, but he can still win. Feb 14, 2012
• Gunfights in Saudi Arabia Show Spread of Tensions http://t.co/dNxhg2ij Shia in Saudi Arabia fight the govt. Biggest split in Mideast $$ Feb 14, 2012
• The Real Reasons the Rich Are Moving Cash to the Caymans http://t.co/gh7d85ZA Litigation risk, and US political risk; diversify yr govts Feb 13, 2012

Federal Reserve / Monetary Policy / Fiscal Policy

• Those believing the Fed is on hold for the next 3 years will be in for a rude awakening http://t.co/VYggm431 FF futures & TIPS betray mkt $$ Feb 24, 2012
• Exported Inflation to Return Home, but When and in What Form http://t.co/UHT61w4Y The Fed will find it hard to shrink its balance sheet $$ Feb 24, 2012
• Healthcare expenses will overwhelm the US federal budget http://t.co/lLUABMYy Suspect a deal will b driven 2 reduce benefits somehow $$ Feb 23, 2012
• “Fiat Money and Collective Corruption” http://t.co/lRAa2xnG Hard money would help, the bigger problem is light regulation of banks/credit $$ Feb 23, 2012
• Fed Writes Sweeping Rules From Behind Closed Doors http://t.co/UtozNgly Q: Why? 2 avoid bank influence, or 2 hide bank influence? $$ Feb 21, 2012
• The Race To Debase In All Its Glory http://t.co/rPtS9EqD Balance sheets of major central banks expand rapidly $$ #racetothebottom Feb 21, 2012
• Wealthy Enriched by Double-Dipping U.S. Plan http://t.co/YtGTfakC Long article describing unethical use of SBA $$ . #eliminatetheSBA Feb 21, 2012
• Over-regulated America http://t.co/uMKtg2W0 The home of laissez-faire is being suffocated by excessive and badly written regulation $$ Feb 18, 2012
• Geithner: GOP Walked Away From Tax Overhaul – Bloomberg http://t.co/yupPqVeO Articles like this indicate another stalemate in the making $$ Feb 17, 2012
• Potomac Divide Shows Foreclosures Thru Courts Slow Home-Price Recovery http://t.co/kilW75GM MD has slow foreclosures, housing mkt lags VA Feb 16, 2012
• Sober Look: Regulate it all, ask questions later http://t.co/qnpfakfJ New regulations reduce the liquidity of the corporate bond market $$ Feb 16, 2012
• FHA is almost broke. What will DC do when it goes critical? RT @HousingWire: FHA defaults up for ninth straight month http://t.co/TSZFHCeD Feb 15, 2012
• Pentagon May Oust Troops Involuntarily to Meet Reductions in Budget Plan http://t.co/VnY4At7J Tough time 2b let go if you r a veteran $$ Feb 14, 2012
• What a surprise! $$ RT @pdacosta: Bernanke’s big housing speech makes no mention of the Fed’s regulatory laxity in run-up to the crisis. Feb 10, 2012

Bonds

• Contra: Should Mortgage Rates Even Be Lower? http://t.co/lODEFb1P Mortgages do not price off of Tsys, but swaps and bank bond yields $$ Feb 22, 2012
• Wall Street Crowds Into Trader Joe’s http://t.co/dHZT83VK CMBS mkt getting heated; loans linked 2 retail rose to 45% 4 bonds sold in 2011 Feb 22, 2012
•  Have a lot of friends who have lost a lot of money waiting for $TLT to break. FD: long TLT http://t.co/Lw6Rqn02 Feb 21, 2012
• A $360 trillion confidence trick http://t.co/Kar0f3Cz I have argued that LIBOR should be based off of binding offers to borrow/lend $$ Feb 14, 2012
• http://t.co/VOIG2gUk W/TIPS NY Fed concentrates on the long on-the-run & nearby, w/nominals opposite. Makes implied inflation look higher $$ Feb 10, 2012

Muni Bonds

• Stockton, CA, to Weigh First Steps Toward Bankruptcy http://t.co/d2lsCmx8 Start of negotiations to reduce emplyee pensions & healthcare $$ Feb 24, 2012
• Good piece, thx RT @munilass: Evaluating Chapter 9 Bankruptcy for City of Detroit: Reality Check or Turnaround Option? http://t.co/PxWo5qHA Feb 21, 2012
• Yes. http://t.co/4DUVVTKi $$ RT @BarbarianCap: @munilass isn’t this the muni book that @AlephBlog reviewed very favorably a few days ago? Feb 20, 2012

Pensions

• New Rules Wreak Havoc forRetirement-Plan Sponsors http://t.co/HzHWTTtL I would expect rules to be modified, else headaches 4 DC plans $$ Feb 24, 2012
• @BarbarianCap Looking at the RFP, that is one of the few things *not* under consideration, pity too, because it is more important. #DumbOCPP Feb 23, 2012
• @BarbarianCap The audit is a test of methods and data, not assumptions. That’s actually pretty normal unless you an assumptions outlier $$ Feb 23, 2012
• @BarbarianCap I’ve said it many times b4, if life insurers have 2b conservative in accounting, DB plans s/b more so, but they r less so $$ Feb 23, 2012
• @BarbarianCap Some cases, deals will be driven to reduce benefits, depends on state/muni laws, Ch 9 allowable; not protected by ERISA/PBGC Feb 23, 2012

Stocks

• The Capabilities Premium in M&A http://t.co/9CdZIugk Long piece that explains why some mergers work; they aid organic growth & r small $$ Feb 22, 2012
• Elemental to Raise $1.7 Billion Next Year to Mine Potash http://t.co/w7GNsA2H Potash pricing has been volatile lately, cross-currents $$ Feb 22, 2012
• Gamestop to J.C. Penney Shut Facebook Stores: Retail http://t.co/zSui0fCf $FB may have a more difficult time w/retail than some expect $$ Feb 20, 2012
• Hewlett-Packard’s Message: We’ve Been Here All Along http://t.co/vU8piGMt Note: long $HPQ . HPQ definitely sounds more certain now. $$ Feb 16, 2012
• Icahn Pushing CVR’s Sale Means $1 Billion Gain for Shareholders http://t.co/TfBKGErf What refiner wants more capacity now & fertilizer? $$ Feb 16, 2012
• Hedge Funds Switch Positions, While Paulson Switches Investing Style http://t.co/MznmLhci Issue w/ $HIG is value of Variable product biz $$ Feb 15, 2012

Miscellaneous

• The Control Revolution And Its Discontents http://t.co/FY4XgPde There is a “sweet spot” for market efficiency, too much & things get chaotic Feb 24, 2012
• The Decline In Inventory Right Now is NOT a Good Sign http://t.co/Ra1Iz65H Fall in seller confidence & decline in new distressed inventory Feb 23, 2012
• Spring Lambing in UK Turns Deadly as New Virus Kills Young http://t.co/PrO4neT1 Infects pregnant sheep, cows and goats, 5% infection rate Feb 22, 2012
• Midwest Farmland Prices Update for the Year 2011 http://t.co/se9DbEgB Good discussion after a good article; things r getting a little bubbly Feb 22, 2012
• Finding Treasures Among Insurer’s Wreckage http://t.co/jiFZiydE Never bot Atl Mutual’s Surplus Notes, but historical curiosities, wow $$ Feb 18, 2012
• @StockTwits Insurance is boring, but antiquities at the oldest companies are fascinating. Wonder what Nationwide did w/Provident Mutuals? $$ Feb 18, 2012
• @StockTwits I would hold meetings every now and then in Provident Mutual’s underused antiquities room; would start good conversations $$ Feb 18, 2012
• Why Is Violent Crime Declining in US Cities? http://t.co/SLgD8bEL & http://t.co/RRRI2m8X Smarter law enforcement makes DC safer. Wow! $$ Feb 18, 2012
• Thanks, liked it. RT @onwrdnupwrd: you will like this one from this weeks economist http://t.co/DMqhgXBB Feb 18, 2012
• Interracial Marriages in US Reach a Record http://t.co/RJjWnTso Interesting that it is more prevalent with college educated people. $$ Feb 18, 2012
• Harvard Mapping My DNA Turns Scary http://t.co/m5stl0d2 Journalist learns hard things about his DNA. Would he be better off not knowing? $$ Feb 18, 2012
• Groupthink: The brainstorming myth http://t.co/7VBlhzKC People do better solving problems on their own, and sharing ideas w/the group $$ Feb 18, 2012
• Fear, Submission, and Authoritarianism; a Disturbing Trend http://t.co/0lb32tOw Negative social mood leads to loss of liberties $$ Feb 16, 2012
• Santorum’s Electability Pitch Undermined by 2006 Senate Re-Election Loss – Bloomberg http://t.co/8xglQQPJ Shouldn’t be an issue, here’s why: Feb 15, 2012
• As the late Bob Casey said, “You can’t lose if you are a pro-life Democrat.” This is true, and it is why Santorum lost to his son. $$ Feb 15, 2012
• Cracking the Long-Jump Code http://t.co/MN9d9EdJ Fascinating science applied; the key seems 2b2 jump higher, not just longer $$ Feb 15, 2012
• The Best Foods for Thought, Literally http://t.co/tMyLW9E2 Perhaps the Mediterranean diet can aid brain function, or a lowcal diet $$ Feb 14, 2012
• Contra: Almost Half the Price of Oil is Speculative Premium http://t.co/z8t51JOl It should be impossible to so overprice such a large mkt $$ Feb 14, 2012
• The Hunt Brothers thought they could corner a much smaller silver market, and were not able to do it.  The oil compan… http://t.co/MLYVH5w3 Feb 14, 2012
• So, What’s Your Algorithm? http://t.co/lC4voWCI Being able 2 crunch large amounts of data can lead to more objective decisions $$ #ornot Feb 13, 2012

Trying a new format here, I think readers will like it better.  Most things are better after additional effort.  Think of this as a news links by subject post.

Economics

• If you look in the back, it seems that there were 58 respondents. From page 13: Methodology & Panel Selection Invi… http://t.co/p8sVZl9g Feb 06, 2012
• Will the great interest rate gamble pay off? http://t.co/hgj5XSKc People want to believe that you can get something for nothing; ain’t true. Feb 05, 2012
• Central Planning at the Federal Reserve http://t.co/X8qmqU6C Fed: we can create prosperity by holding interest rates down, right? $$ #wishes Feb 05, 2012
• Labor Force Participation Rate: 28-year Low http://t.co/kLgQ61iK Everyone still happy about the lower unemployment rate? $$ Feb 05, 2012
• Bill Gross: Free Money Ain’t Really Free http://t.co/LXWxpxp5 It will lead to stagflation, IMO, depending on what fiscal policy does $$ Feb 05, 2012
• Life & Death Proposition http://t.co/XuZS5Snn Where does credit go when it dies? Back where it came. It delevers, slows & inhibits ec growth Feb 02, 2012
• US unemployment “progress” http://t.co/WoIVZPGp If you add back the discoraged workers, all of the improvement in U-3 goes away $$ Feb 02, 2012
• The Perniciousness of ZIRP http://t.co/dYlFMbLe Gonzalo Lira on how ZIRP loses effectiveness b/c people think it’ll b there a long time $$ Feb 01, 2012
• Why Neoclassical Economics Doesn’t Work In The Age Of Deleveraging http://t.co/D3IAhTyv Steve Keen explains y Krugman & others r wrong $$ Feb 01, 2012
• Warning: Goat Rodeo http://t.co/JQ2FV9LS Hussman makes his case that equities are overvalued and could pull back 25% $$ Feb 01, 2012
• Who Owns World’s Financial Assets? & Why R US Households So Fascinated W/Stocks? http://t.co/5rp52OM4 American Exceptionalism in investing Feb 01, 2012
• As an aside, that is one reason why the US net foreign debt hasn’t spiraled up. We own equities abroad & they own our debt. $$ declines + Feb 01, 2012
• $$ declines reduce the value of our debts, but not the value of r foreign holdings. I think the US will come out of this crisis rel well $$ Feb 01, 2012

Housing

• Home Prices Tumble http://t.co/N1gdNslr No surprise here with all of the dark supply; houses come onto mkt when ppl can bear loss $$ Feb 01, 2012
• Too lazy to be knowns http://t.co/flXRR6fM I know many who understood what would happen if home RE prices fell, but none who got the size $$ Feb 01, 2012
• Freddie Mac’s “inverse floater” allowed more loan origination http://t.co/5devKZ17 Other side to the Propublica story http://t.co/KjXJHU1x Feb 01, 2012
• I’m no fan of the GSEs; I think they should be abolished, but the GSEs have always made a variety of bets on prepayment over time. $$ Feb 01, 2012

International

• On China, Henry Kissinger and Fareed Zakaria see Domestic Tension and Risk of Geopolitical Conflict http://t.co/1bhvrI3U Ferguson is wrong. Feb 05, 2012
• Tightening lending standards vary materially across the Eurozone http://t.co/ciWUK9cm Conditions tight in Italy & France, but not Germany $$ Feb 02, 2012
• Japan Auto Sales Notch Record Jump http://t.co/0VzF4WST Another small bright spot. Of course, bouncing back from a low level $$ Feb 02, 2012
• Socialist Hollande, Who Wants Full European Treaty Renegotiation, Increases Lead Over Sarkozy http://t.co/J3qCpZZ3 Eurozone Wild Card $$ Feb 01, 2012
• Hong Kong Homes Face 25% Drop as Loans Fall in Year of Dragon http://t.co/ifg1146H And this is with wealthy mainlanders fleeing China. $$ Feb 01, 2012

Markets

• RBC Takes On High Frequency Predators http://t.co/MfA5qdxm Where there is offense, there will b defense; nothing goes unanswered in the mkts Feb 05, 2012
• Global Strategists Abandoning Bearish Views http://t.co/dOXCUMA7 Makes me think we r getting close to a turning point. Feb 02, 2012
• Dividend stocks: Buyer beware http://t.co/SvMCHtCj Makes the valid & missed point: high qual div paying stocks r stocks & can lose $$ #yeah Feb 01, 2012

Credit

• 6 High-Yield Canaries-in-the-Coalmine http://t.co/4pz6SSQc 6 reasons y high yield is overheated http://t.co/fKnHmBqD & http://t.co/UPVev0iD Feb 02, 2012
• QOTD: Regulators Watching Aggressive Yield Chasing http://t.co/iWimo3eg FINRA warns of undue risk in income seeking. Advisors take note $$ Feb 02, 2012
• Contra: The Safest 7% Yield in America http://t.co/VrXoLEFH Poor analysis does not take into account the highish leverage on mtge repo $$ Feb 02, 2012
• Shipping Loans Go Bad for European Banks http://t.co/y5Z0wt3R Highly glutted area w/many dead firms walking; how far down will the losses go Feb 02, 2012

Politics

• Group lists top stock investments by members of Congress http://t.co/CarxUCjS Top 50 hldgs -> in top 100 cos by mkt cap. Hard2manipulate $$ Feb 05, 2012
• Obama Re-Election Odds Versus the Stock Market http://t.co/F5EETcve Example of 2 variables that r correlated b/c they anticipate GDP changes Feb 05, 2012
• RE: @abnormalreturns Gold is mostly political philosophy. How much control do you want the government to have over mo… http://t.co/hRxIkaoo Feb 03, 2012
• Getting back to the gold standard http://t.co/pCk8Ij6j Gingrich & Ron Paul have said they would like to appoint James Grant as Fed Chairman Feb 02, 2012

Companies

• Carlyle’s proposed IPO disaster http://t.co/OqGke8eN So there’s no board. Most boards don’t do much. Mgmt will have no board 2 shield them Feb 05, 2012
• For These Fans, a Day With Buffett Offers Wealth of Photo Opportunities http://t.co/UpcwVKe7 I think Buffett is enjoying life more now. Feb 05, 2012
• Buffett Railroad Boosts Capital Plan to $3.9B http://t.co/9XEw2gyT Buffett changes; organic investment in capital-intensive biz $$ #olddog Feb 01, 2012
• Pep Boys Seen Gaining 27% as Cheapest Value Lures Bids http://t.co/GyfH7qRL Could a bidding war start? Company is undermanaged $$ Feb 01, 2012
• Jefferies Allows Bonus Recipients to Swap Stock 4 Cash With 25% Discount http://t.co/pfGB3Vmc Fair way2 let employees disconnect from $JEF Feb 01, 2012

Financial Services

• I’ve just started “Acts of God and Man,” by Michael Powers. In the intro, he goes through the various meanings of th… http://t.co/tX7uAlWl Feb 05, 2012
• When evaluating Investment Funds, use Dollar-weighted Returns http://t.co/N5g7PI0d This is a neglcted concept that is enjoying a rebirth $$ Feb 02, 2012
• After a Delay, MF Global’s Missing Money Is Traced http://t.co/4s6U8yOe Investigation moves to how to recover the $$ and who is at fault. Feb 01, 2012
• http://t.co/wBbJTe3D FINRA Alert: Do you use complex products? What additional work do you do 2 assure that they are being used properly? $$ Feb 01, 2012
• Banks Need Higher Interest Rates to Start Making Money http://t.co/SneRACCi Flat front end of yield curve squishes bank interest margins $$ Feb 01, 2012
• 401(k) Plans Step Into the Sunshine http://t.co/fvKeup2L But as with DB plans, as costs rise, companies will offer them less. $$ Jan 31, 2012

Value Investing

• The SEC’s “90% Convergence” Fantasy http://t.co/bkWaAS5S US GAAP has many flaws, but we know them. IFRS will introduce abusable flexibility Feb 02, 2012
• But on the bright side, value investors may do relatively better as financials become less trustworthy; the accruals anomaly will sing $$ Feb 02, 2012
• Need to consider (Cost of goods sold)/user $$ RT @ErikSchatzker: Facebook gets $4.39/yr of revenue per user. ESPN gets $4.69/mo. Feb 02, 2012
• Berkowitz: Fund Plunge ‘Makes Little Sense’ http://t.co/pcoPLahW BB, appoint someone in your group 2 seek out opinions contrary 2 yours $$ Feb 01, 2012
• @ADayforRabbit I have argued in the past that BB is not paying attention to the delevering, which is a real headwind for the banks. $$ Feb 02, 2012
• New Fund Hopes to Prove Outspoken Analyst’s Thesis http://t.co/cuVpRzvO I bet @rcwhalen does well like my friends @ Hovde or M3 Partners $$ Feb 01, 2012

Hedge Funds

• Are Hedge Funds Worthwhile Investments? http://t.co/Lw2EhRPr Yet another “Hedge Fund Mirage” citation; the book is having a lot of influence Feb 02, 2012
• Are the hedge fund and private equity boys pulling a fast one? http://t.co/TNXFJo62 Beginning 2c the args of “Hedge Fund Mirage” everywhere Feb 02, 2012
• Did Hedge Funds Trigger the Financial Crisis? http://t.co/lNIb2dgF Secured asset classes can be overlevered; when they collapse, big mess $$ Feb 01, 2012

Miscellaneous

• Do the Job You’re Meant to Do http://t.co/wR3OX20N LIfe is too short to work with people you don’t respect, or tasks unfit for you $$ Feb 02, 2012
• Millionaire adopts girlfriend as daughter http://t.co/zffGCWbu Asset shelter. Does incest rely on consanguinity or on legal relationship? Feb 02, 2012
• Charles Murray Reiterates Willpower http://t.co/smeXZKNh Lack of self-control can destroy relationships, jobs, firms & lives $$ Feb 02, 2012
• I ran into @twitalyzer today. Lots of interesting analytics for tweeting. Here are some for me: http://t.co/HDdcFYaU & http://t.co/8uFFOMuP Feb 01, 2012
• At the first blogger summit at the UST, I recommended to the powers that be that they issue floaters. I also recommen… http://t.co/R3U8OHSi Feb 01, 2012
• California Faces Cash Shortfall by March on Low Receipts, Controller Says http://t.co/QxH1a6Re Could be interesting given the elections $$ Feb 01, 2012

There are two things that I want to comment on Fed policy this evening: Transparency is overrated, and Bernanke does not understand savings.

Transparency is Overrated

Ever heard of the phrase “data overload?”  Greenspan would do that verbally in his testimony to Congress, providing them with more data than they needed, and occasionally contradictory so that each side could quote what they wanted.

Well, the present transparency policy of the Fed is another version of data overload.  Give lots of data — some similar, some different.  Opinions, forecasts, policies — average people have a hard time with the nuances; even some professionals do.

After a certain point, the more data you reveal, the harder it gets to evaluate what is going on.  Far better to reveal to the public the core data that explains policy than to make them slog through big data releases.

Transparency is overrated.  Not sure which foolish economist thought of this one, but more data does not mean better decisions, or better public understanding.  Humans are not Vulcans (only logical), nor Ferengi (only greedy); we are complex, and that makes prediction of actions difficult.

Bernanke does not Understand Savings

Twice in his press conference yesterday, Bernanke showed that he was out of touch with average Americans.  He argued that average people could keep up with a 2% increase in the price level by investing in stocks and (presumably short-term) bonds.

(Speaking to The Bernank)

I’m sorry, Ben, but ya gotsta come down from the uneducated ivory tower and wallow in the mud wit da restov us.  There are three problems with what you said:

• It’s hard to earn 2% (after-tax) consistently when the Fed funds rate is zero.
• Only the top 20% of the wealthy have enough assets to keep themselves afloat using the asset markets.  Most people would like to do something to protect themselves from inflation, but lack the means to do so.
• Average people do not invest, they save at financial intermediaries like banks, S&Ls, and life insurers.  Fed policy kills rates for savers.  They will not become investors, because they lack the knowledge to do so.

I am again sorry, Ben, because your policies discriminate against the poor, and the lower middle class.  Yes, the rich and the upper middle-class clever can escape the penalties stemming from your policies, but the lower-middle class and the poor can’t.

Think of it this way: your policies are making it more palatable for average people to buy gold, because the alternatives in savings are lousy.  If there is no income, why not grab safety from inflation?

Are you really trying to wrest the thorny crown of “worst Fed Chairman” from Arthur Burns?  If so, well done, you are achieving your goals.  Even Alan Greenspan did not do that, though he tried.

My advice to you is simple.  Raise the Fed funds rate to 1%, and stop the QE, and pseudo-QE.  At the zero bound, monetary policy has no punch, and the same for QE.  It affects asset markets; it does not affect goods markets.

Time to abandon useless theories about the Depression, and embrace the practical difficulties that we now face.  Ben, grow up and abandon your failed theories on the Great Depression.  And resign, if you can’t grow up.

• @The_Analyst does Hempton do Twitter? Bright guy. Jan 26, 2012
• RE: @SoberLook It’s not a pledge, indeed, but it is an estimate.  The bond market has reacted quite strongly to the e… http://t.co/crpU3QpH Jan 26, 2012
• RE: @SoberLook Does this post from Alea change your opinion at all? http://t.co/2hs1LTyN… http://t.co/p3Plmjnb Jan 26, 2012
• MF Customers Face Long, and Possibly Fruitless, Slog http://t.co/MoMIalrc Law s/b modified: customer accts s/b top priority in broker BK Jan 26, 2012
• Solar Cheaper Than Diesel Making India’s Mittal Believer http://t.co/ZW2ta2aB This is the right way 2 employ solar; with no subsidies $$ Jan 26, 2012
• Obama Pushes Salad in Schools at $3B Cost to States http://t.co/M9nWkW4T Healthier food is no good if the kids don’t eat it, ask L.A. $$ Jan 26, 2012
• Con Artist Starred in Sting That Cost $GOOG Millions http://t.co/ErAgeziD New motto: Don’t be evil, but if you are evil, make $$ by it Jan 26, 2012
• This is y well-capitalized P&C insurers r hard 2 kill, & usually make $$ over the int-term: past losses r more than paid 4 by higher prems Jan 26, 2012
• US Commercial P&C Rates to Climb, Marsh Says http://t.co/OxCUuSsU The insurance brokers know; after a year of losses comes a hard market Jan 26, 2012
• @researchpuzzler @The_Analyst “There’s an institutional hedge fund analyst born every minute.” Alleged 2 PT Barnum but, http://t.co/ku1NlqZG Jan 26, 2012
• @BarbarianCap What I am saying is that structural legal protections around economically necessary authorities & municipalities r significant Jan 26, 2012
• @BarbarianCap PV of losses are typically small, except on odd munis that don’t have any necessary economic value 2 a municipality + Jan 26, 2012
• @BarbarianCap Part of the difficulty is that states can’t default, and Ch 9 4 what municipalities can use it, merely gives breathing room + Jan 26, 2012
• @BarbarianCap There will be significant issues, but even during the Depression, losses were remarkably small on munis. Taxes will rise. $$ Jan 26, 2012
• @The_Analyst Then again, it’s probably more “a fool and his money are soon parted.” Due diligence ain’t always that great 4 institutions $$ Jan 26, 2012
• @The_Analyst Typically they were pretty good salesmen to get fund #1 off the ground, even better 4 #2. W/fund #3 they sell “It’s fixed.” $$ Jan 26, 2012
• Iran’s Ahmadinejad ups rates to stem money crisis http://t.co/6IhpevuO Sanctions r having an internal effect on the Iranian economy. $$ Jan 26, 2012
• Niederhoffer Discusses Being Wrong http://t.co/mWrnI7mg Frank talk from one who blew up twice. Perhaps he has a risk control discipline now. Jan 26, 2012
• What’s In Your 401(k) Fund Line-Up? http://t.co/1ufb7xk2 Plan sponsors have an obligation 2 remove poorly performing funds but many don’t Jan 26, 2012
• Wither the Wirehouse RT @ReformedBroker: Whither the Wirehouse? http://t.co/E4Xtz5Ul Jan 25, 2012
• Wither the wirehouse http://t.co/TnuMFvDE Jan 25, 2012
• RE: @wallstCS None of the competitor companies you list compete w/ $RGA. $PRE does a little bit of life reinsurance &… http://t.co/v9r3kg5z Jan 25, 2012
• @TimABRussell Yes, I think Bernanke is sincere in what he is doing. That doesn’t mean that it doesn’t confuse, or get the right result. $$ Jan 25, 2012
• @TimABRussell That was the Greenspan strategy. Talk about the six sides of the square & confuse: Top, bottom, right, left, inside, outside Jan 25, 2012
• Fed learns that it is easier to hide a needle if they put it in a larger haystack. $$ All for now on the Fed. Back to normal activity. Jan 25, 2012
• Final Q on fiscal policy asking what if deficits aren’t cut. B says that deficits need to be cut. IT’S OVER!! Jan 25, 2012
• Bernanke essentially says that everyone has a lot of slack assets, and can invest them after-tax at 2% in the long run. Jan 25, 2012
• Q on CPI vs PCE, critics saying Fed planning to destroy 2% of currency value per year. B: CPI has made up numbers, healthcare differences $$ Jan 25, 2012
• French reporter asks whether Fed would extend a loan to the IMF. “Raison detre” cute response, punts to Tsy and Congress $$ Jan 25, 2012
• Mkt news intl reporter: why have forward guidance when you give out forecasts? Bernanke: guidance describes Fed’s decision, vs expectations Jan 25, 2012
• Bernanke gets symmetric questions asking whether policy is doing too much or too little, on inflation and unemployment. $$ Jan 25, 2012
• WP reporter: could the Fed bring unemployment down faster if it were more aggressive? Bernanke really doesn’t answer. Jan 25, 2012
• In general, people analyze better with limited amounts of data — zero data (w/Kremlinology) and lots of data make analysis harder $$ Jan 25, 2012
• I think the more data the Fed hands out, the more lost the press and average people get confused. Jan 25, 2012
• Q: Why isn’t Fed doing more now if you think things will be bad for so long? Internally Bernanke reconsiders the value of press conferences. Jan 25, 2012
• Bernanke says that low rates conquer all and so providing more data won’t hurt things — expectations are a lesser thing $$ Jan 25, 2012
• Peter Barnes, Fox Business: possibility of negative expectations because the economy is viewed as much worse than previously thought $$ Jan 25, 2012
• AP reporter asks about principal reductions for the housing crisis. Bernanke says that the FOMC is concerned, but doesn’t say much really $$ Jan 25, 2012
• Median b/c FOMC is a “democracy.” In practice, though, the Fed chair has 12 votes Jan 25, 2012
• Robin Harding of FT asks about forecast, and what it implies for FOMC policy: Bernanke says there’s no mechanism, look at the median Jan 25, 2012
• to be able to be released — mentions that June 2011 principles are still in force for shrinking the balance sheet (in 2015?!) Jan 25, 2012
• Reuters reporter asks for more data on balance sheet data, versus data on Fed funds — Bernanke says there is only so much data at a time + Jan 25, 2012
• RT @joshuademasi: @AlephBlog All fed needs to do is create esoteric invesment vehicle cross hedging USHY in Rand and Real. What could g … Jan 25, 2012
• Donna Moran (?) of Amer Banker — Basel 3, capital requirements, etc. Me: Fed supervision of biggest institutions not done well in past $$ Jan 25, 2012
• Bernanke waffles on the question of what happens to savers, confusing saving and investing. Needs to consider what finl intermediation does Jan 25, 2012
• Greg Robb(?) Marketwatch asks about Republicans, and how older people on fixed incomes survive, and whether he might resign if Reps win Jan 25, 2012
• Greg Ip questions the asymmetry comments — I think Bernanke would be better off saying “asymmetric in the long run.” Jan 25, 2012
• @joshuademasi The hate for the Fed exists because they were overly loose 1984-2006, regulated banks poorly & created much of this crisis $$ Jan 25, 2012
• Hilsenrath asks about confidence in the FOMC’s forecasting abilities. Wonders which dot is Bernanke’s… Bernanke affirms limitations Jan 25, 2012
• Torres of Bloomberg asks about near-term inflation — The Bernank points to falling commodity prices, slower global growth Jan 25, 2012
• Decent question on the symmetric nature of monetary policy Jan 25, 2012
• Toady comments on what he views as strength RT @agwarner: Liesman Alert! $FED Jan 25, 2012
• Full set of projections from the FOMC: http://t.co/VqWfrYgL Worthy of note that their forecasting ability is subpar. Jan 25, 2012
• Fed Funds Projections: http://t.co/Wd9lmEeO Jan 25, 2012