I was writing to potential clients when I realized that I don’t have so much to write about my bond track record as I do my track record with stocks.  I jotted down a note to formalize what I say about my bond portfolios.

One person I was writing to asked some detailed questions, and I told him that the stock market was likely to return about 4.5%/yr (not adjusted for inflation) over the next ten years.  The model I use is the same one as this one used by pseudonymous Philosophical Economist.  I don’t always agree with him, but he’s a bright guy, what can I say?  That’s not a very high return — the historical average is around 9.5%.  The market is in the 85th-90th percentiles of valuation, which is pretty high.  That said, I am not taking any defensive action yet.

Yet.

But then it hit me.  The yield on my bond portfolio is around 4.5% also.  Now, it’s not a riskless bond portfolio, as you can tell by the yield.  I’m no longer running the portfolio described in Fire and Ice.  I sold the long Treasuries about 30 basis points ago.  Right now, I am only running the Credit sensitive portion of the portfolio, with a bit of foreign bonds mixed in.

Why am I doing this?  I think it has a good balance of risks.  Remember that there is no such thing as generic risk.  There are many risks.  At this point this portfolio has a decent amount of credit risk, some foreign exchange risk, and is low in interest rate risk.  The duration of the portfolio is less than 2, so I am not concerned about rising rates, should the FOMC ever do such a thing as raise rates.  (Who knows?  The economy might actually grow faster if they did that.  Savers will eventually spend more.)

But 10 years is a long time for a bond portfolio with a duration of less than 2 years.  I’m clipping coupons in the short run, running credit risk while I don’t see any major credit risks on the horizon aside from weak sovereigns (think the PIIGS), student loans, and weak junk (ratings starting with a “C”).  The risks on bank loans are possibly overdone here, even with weakened covenants.  Aside from that, if we really do see a lot of credit risk crop up, stocks will get hit a lot harder than this portfolio.  Dollar weakness and US inflation (should we see any) would also not be a risk.

I’ve set a kind of a mental stop loss at losing 5% of portfolio value.  Bad credit is the only significant factor that could harm the portfolio.  If credit problems got that bad, it would be time to exit because credit problems come in bundles, not dribs and drabs.

I’m not doing it yet, but it is tempting to reposition some of my IRA assets presently in stocks into the bond strategy.  I’m not sure I would lose that much in terms of profit potential, and it would increase the overall safety of the portfolio.

I’ll keep you posted.  That is, after I would tell my clients what I am doing, and give them a chance to act, should they want to.

Finally, do you have a different opinion?  You can email me, or, you can share it with all of the readers in the comments.  Please do.

I had the fun today of taping a segment with Ameera David on RT Boom/Bust. The above video covers the first half of the session, and lasts about seven minutes. We covered the following topics (with links to articles of mine, if any are applicable):

The second half, should it make it onto the show, deals mostly with international issues.  Enjoy the video, if you want to.

I was riding home with child number seven after a basketball practice about four months ago — this is the child that if any of mine has the capability of taking over for me someday, this is the one. She said to me, “Dad, I always knew we were better off than most, but it finally sank home to me how much better off we are than most of the people we know.”

Me: “What do you mean?”

7: “I’ve been talking with my friends after basketball practice, after church, and other times, and I hear about what happens when their parents have a $500 surprise bill for a repair, and things like that.  They have to scrape for months to deal with the added expense, and they can’t do a lot of things that they do normally while they rebuild their finances.”

Me: “Okay, so what makes us different?”

7: “We just had three disasters hit us at the same time, and you just dealt with them for the long term without making a lot of noise about it.  Had that happened to any of my friends’ families, they would not know what to do, it would be impossible for them to do it without help.”

Me: “Actually there are a few of your friends whose families would likely survive what hit us easily, but yes, you’ve hit on something that I think is the most significant initial lesson on finance for the 75% of the population on the low end of incomes.  People need to start saving early, and build a buffer against disasters, etc.  If I were going to give a talk at most churches on personal finance, I would talk only about that, and almost nothing more.  Earn, budget, save, and be generous.  After that, we can talk about investing, but it is only relevant to a minority of the population with enough discipline to save early and often, initially aiming for 3-6 months of expenses.”

7: “When did you and Mom finally have that much saved?”

Me: “Going into our marriage back in 1986.  I had been a graduate student, and your mom a high school teacher in one of the poorest school districts in California, but we still both lived low on the hog, and saved money.  That gave us enough money that we were able to buy a small house at an opportunistic time six months after we married.  Within a year, we had rebuilt the buffer, and we haven’t been without it since.”

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In personal finance, you have to develop good habits early, and learn that life isn’t about how much you spend.  I try to teach my kids that — Seven understands it, as does three or four of her siblings.  The other three or four don’t understand, despite my best efforts — some of it seems to be personality-driven, but I have seen one or two of them change and get better at money management.  We’ll see… they are still developing.

In finance, you have to focus on what you can control.  You have reasonable control over ordinary spending.  You have less control over what you earn, and almost no control over accidents and investment returns.  Thus the first bit of advice is to live below your means and save.  The second bit is to plan against catastrophes on a reasonable level.  Insurance can be useful to protect against some of the worst outcomes.  Just remember, insurance is an expense and not an investment.

Along with the above article cited, note these four basic articles and one book review on personal finance:

The last one is useful for learning to live less expensively, while still having most reasonable comforts that others have.

Now, what I have written about above has been noted in the financial media lately regarding a study done by JP Morgan on how many people don’t keep a buffer around, no matter how much they earn.  Here are two articles that talk about that study (one, two — good articles both, read them if you can).  Personally, I’m not surprised having worked with people who earned a lot and spent to the limit.  They lived far more opulent lives than I do, but decided they would save later.

If you want to save, start now.  Most good habits have to be started now, or they won’t get started.  Most good intentions don’t die from a frontal assault, but from the idea that you have plenty of time to change.  As a result — you don’t change.  And that is not just you, it is me in my life also.  Change must start now, or it does not start.

Two more articles worth a read:

These largely follow my point of view on personal finances.  Save, protect against bad risks, and take moderate risks to earn money both in work and in investing.  You can do it too, but remember, it is not a question of knowledge, it is a question of whether you have the will to do it or not.  I wish you the best in your efforts.

Now if you haven’t done it yet, go build the buffer.

Photo Credit: Jugbo

Photo Credit: Jugbo || A puzzle to solve…

From a friend of mine:

About a quarter of my assets are in my company stock. I have been counting this as a stock in my portfolio, but now I am wondering if that might be making my portfolio too conservative. The company is privately held, and they manage the “price”, so that it goes up consistently with the growth of the company. As long and the company does not go bust, this seem to be more stable than a stock fund.

What do you think?

I don’t think you are being too conservative.  Count it as stock.  Here’s why:

Don’t look at the price, on the first pass.  Consider the underlying stability of the company.  Here’s a way to think about it: if the company borrowed money over the intermediate-term from a bank, or floated a bond, what kind of rate would they pay?  Would they be considered investment grade, and pay a low interest rate, or would they be more like a high-yield bond, where both the covenants on the debt and the yield paid are significant.

If it would be an investment grade lending risk, you might be able to think about it as partially stock and partially a bond.  If not, then stock.  Regardless of how you think about it, you have to realize that you are running a concentrated risk here, and play everything else a little safer as a result.

Now, the stock price that they quote to you does have a meaning, which varies based on what your employment plans are with your firm.  If you are thinking of leaving, you would like a high price to get cashed out at, but if you are thinking of staying, you would probably like a lower price, as you may get more shares.

I don’t know everything here, so my advice is general.  It would change if you could buy or sell with discretion, but that is not likely.  If you have some idea of how upper management views the long-term prospects of the company, that could guide your reasoning.  As an analogy, consider the investment banks on Wall Street prior to their becoming publicly traded.  Management viewed their ownership in the bank as part of their pension, so they shot down ideas that were too risky.  They were happy to see the value of the firm grow at a reasonable rate with near-certainty, rather than a rapid rate with a moderate probability of failure.

So, think about your management team and what they do.  Make discreet inquiries to them if you think it is wise.  Be careful with the rest of your assets.  How careful depends on the soundness of the firm, your risk tolerance, and your time horizon for when you will need to convert the assets to another form for your own use.

There is no getting something for nothing.  There is always a cost involved, even if it is feeling vaguely obligated to listen to the person giving you a gift.  We are social creatures, and we want to favor people who are kind to us.

I get a lot a pitches in the mail because I profile well to wealth managers and those like them.  The age, assets, income add up to a likely client, except that I am in a related business, and am not interested in making my assets less flexible, at least right now.

My advice to you is that you do not respond to free gifts, whether it is good food, baubles, etc.  It’s not worth it, and if you have a need, it would be far better to draw up your own story, and send it to five wealth managers, putting them in competition with one another, so that you can compare and contrast what they do and charge.

Even in my own limited experience, going to free conferences I find that I am the product being sold, and for months thereafter I have to tell marketers that I am not interested — and to the pesky ones point out some flaw in what they do.

Your time is valuable.  So is your money.  Thus remember what I always say:

“Don’t buy what someone else wants to sell you.  Buy what you have researched that you want to buy.”

Thus, make them play your game.  Don’t play their game.  Send out your proposal for competitive bid, and choose the one that is best for you.

Tonight’s topic comes from a note sent to me by a friend. Here it is:

David, I have heard you say that you have entered into partnerships in the past.  What are your rules for partnerships, who will you enter with?  I have a neighbor who is interested in starting a business, the start up cash is small $5000.  I think there might be good opportunity, but I am concerned for good reason about my time availability, as well as Not being “unequally yoked”.  What business relations do Paul’s words govern.  do you have different rules for minority, majority, or controlling shares?

I appreciate your thoughts.

I have two “partnership” investments.  One is very successful and is an S Corporation.  The other is a limited partnership, and I wonder whether it will ever amount to anything.  Both were done with friends.

There are a few things that you have to think about with partnerships:

  1. Is your liability limited to the amount of money you invested, or could you be on the hook for more if there are losses/lawsuits?
  2. Are there likely to be future periods where capital might need to be raised?  Under what conditions will that be done?
  3. What non-capital obligations are you taking on as a result of this?  Labor, counsel, facilities, tools, etc?
  4. How will profits and losses be allocated?  Voting interests? How will it be managed? When will the partnership end?  How can terms be modified? How can partnership interests be transferred, if at all?  Etc.
  5. Do you like the people that you will be partners with?  You may be partners for a long time.
  6. Be ready for the additional tax complexity of filling out schedule C, or a K-1, or some other tax form.

Go into a partnership with your eyes wide open, and check everything.  If your partnership interests have limited liability, and the economics are structured similar to that of a corporation, then things are clearer, and you don’t have to worry as much.

Take note of any obligations that you might have that don’t fit into the “passive provider of limited capital with proportionate ownership” framework.  Those obligations are the ones that need greater scrutiny.  Include in that how those working on the partnership get compensated for their labor.  Parties to the partnership may have multiple roles, and there can be conflicts of interest — imagine a partnership where one partner works in the business and receives a large salary, thus depressing profits for the non-working partners.  How does that conflict of interest get settled?  (Note that the same problems that exist in being an outside, passive, minority public stock investor reappear here.)

Also be aware of how ownership interests can change, and whether you may be forced to add more capital to maintain your proportionate interest in the business.

Try to have a good sense of the skill of the partner or employee managing the business.  That makes all the difference in whether a business succeeds.

Most of what I say here assumes that you will not be a controlling majority partner, and that you will have limited influence over the business.  If you do have control, the problems of getting cheated by someone else go away, but get replaced with the problem of making sure the business is run adequately for the interests of all partners.  Your ethical obligations also expand.

You mention the “unequally yoked” passage from Second Corinthians 6, verses 14 and following.  In one sense, that doesn’t have much more application here than it does in all investing if one is a Christian.  Don’t involve yourself in businesses that of necessity involve you in things that you would not do yourself as a Christian.  Don’t invest in enterprises where it is obvious that management does not care about ethics — you can see it in their behavior.  This will be a little clearer and close to home in a partnership with a friend — you will know a lot more about what is going on.

With a non-limited partnership, there is an additional way the “unequally yoked” passage applies.  You expose your entire economic well-being to risk when you are a general partner.  It is like a marriage — it is very difficult to negotiate your way out of the unlimited guarantee that you make there.  It is like being a co-signer, which the Bible says to avoid.

Of itself, that doesn’t expose you to the unequal yoke, but when you are in an economic agreement that binding, if your partner takes the business in an ethical direction you find dubious, you will be in a weak position to do something about this.  There is where the unequal yoke appears amid unlimited liability.

That’s all for now.  There’s a lot more to consider here, but this is meant to be an introduction to the issues involved in partnerships.  Hope it works well for you.

How does capital get allocated to the public stock markets?  Through the following means:

  • Initial Public Offerings [IPOs]
  • Follow-on offerings of stock (including PIPEs, etc.)
  • Employees who give up wage income in exchange for stock, or contingent stock (options)
  • Through rights offerings
  • Company-issued warrants and convertible preferred stock, bonds, and bank debt (rare)
  • Receiving equity in exchange for other claims in bankruptcy
  • Issuing stock to pay for the purchase of a private company
  • And other less common ways, such as promoted stocks giving cheap shares to vendors to pay for goods or services rendered.  (spit, spit)

How does capital get allocated away from the public stock markets?  Through the following means:

  • Companies getting acquired with payment fully or partially in cash.  (including going private)
  • Buybacks, including tender offers
  • Dividends
  • Buying for cash company-issued warrants and convertible preferred stock, bonds, and bank debt
  • Going dark transactions are arguable — the company is still public, but no longer has to publish data publicly.

I’m sure there are more for each of the above categories, but I think I got the big ones.  But note what largely does not matter:

  • The stock price going up or down, and
  • who owns the stock

Now, I have previously commented on how the stock price does have an effect on the actual business of the company, even if the effects are of the second order:

My initial main point is this: capital allocation to public companies does not in any large way depend on what happens in secondary market stock trading, but on what happens in the primary market, where shares are traded for cash or something else in place of cash.  When that happens, businessmen make decisions as to whether the cash is worth giving up in exchange for the new shares, or shares getting retired in exchange for cash.

In the secondary market, companies do not directly get any additional capital from all the trading that goes on.  Also, in the long run, stocks don’t care who owns them.  The prices of the stocks will eventually reflect the value of the underlying claims on the business, with a lot of noise in the process.

My second main point is this: as a result, indexing, or any other secondary market investment management strategy does not affect capital allocation much at all.  Companies going into an index for the first time typically have been public for some time, and do not issue new shares as a direct consequence of going into the index.  The price may jump, but that does not affect capital allocation unless the company does decide to issue new shares to take advantage of captive index buyers who can’t sell, which doesn’t happen often.

The same is true in reverse for companies that get kicked out of an index: they do not buy back and retire shares as a direct consequence of going into the index.  They may buy back shares when the price falls, but not because there aren’t indexers in the stock anymore.

So why did I write about this this evening?  I get an email each week from Evergreen Gavekal, and generally, I recommend it.  Generally it is pretty erudite, so if you want to get it, email them and ask for it.

In their most recent email, Charles Gave (a genuinely bright guy that I usually agree with) argues that indexing is inherently socialist because you lose discipline in capital allocation, and allocate to companies in proportion to their market capitalization, which is inherently pro-momentum, and favors large companies that have few good opportunities to deploy capital.

I agree that indexing is slightly pro-momentum as a strategy, and maybe, that you can do better if you remove the biggest companies out of your portfolio.  Where I don’t agree is that indexing changes capital allocation to companies all that much, because no cash gets allocated to or from companies as a result of being in an index.  As a result, indexing is not an inherently socialistic strategy, as Gave states.

Rather, it is a free-market strategy, because no one is constrained to do it, and it shrinks the economic take of the fund management industry, which is good for outside passive minority investors.  Let clever active managers earn their relatively high fees, but for most people who can’t identify those managers, let them index.

If indexing did lead to misallocation of capital, we would expect to see non-indexed assets outperform indexed over the long haul.  In general, we don’t see that, and so I would argue the indexing is beneficial to the investing public.

I write this as one who makes all of his money off of active value investing, so I have no interest in promoting indexing for its own sake.  I just agree with Buffett that most people should index unless they know a clever active manager.

Photo Credit: wackystuff

Photo Credit: wackystuff

No one wants to be a forced seller in a panic. So how does anyone get into that situation?  Two things: bad planning and a bad scenario.

Let’s start with the obvious stuff: the moment you start using leverage, there is a positive probability of total failure, and more leverage increases the probability.  Other factors that raise the probability are lack of diversification of assets, a short term for repayment on the leverage, a run on the bank, or restrictive rules on what happens if your assets decline too much in value.

For the big guys, I think that covers most of it.  With little guys, there is one more painful way that it happens, with insult added to injury.

Assume the man in question has no formal leverage, except maybe a mortgage on his house.  He has a stock portfolio, and like many, has bought popular stocks that everyone thinks will do well.  Then a significant panic hits the market because enough corporate or banking debts are incapable of being repaid.

The value of his portfolio falls a lot, but he doesn’t sell or worry immediately, because he has a solid job and has a buffer of a few months expenses set aside.  Then the shock hits.  In the midst of the panic he faces one of the following:

  • The loss of his job (or severe trouble in his business)
  • Disability with no insurance
  • An uninsured casualty of some sort
  • Divorce
  • Health problems not covered by insurance
  • Death (and his wife has to pick up the pieces)
  • Etc.

Guess what?  Even though he planned ahead, the plan did not consider true disasters, where two things fail at the same time.  His buffer runs out, and in order to live, he has to sell stocks at a time when he thinks they are undervalued.

This happens to some degree in the depths of bear markets, because unemployment and credit panics are correlated.  Other contingencies may not be correlated, but a certain number of them happen all the time — the odds of them happening when the stock market is down is still positive.

What can be done?  Here are a few ideas:

  • Hold a bigger buffer.  Maybe toss in some high quality long bonds, as well as cash.
  • Reduce fixed commitments.
  • Insure most reasonably possible large insurable contingencies — death, disability, health, liability, etc.
  • Keep a rolling hedge of protective puts (costly)
  • Increase portfolio quality and diversification to lessen the hit.

The time plan for a flat tire is before you have one.  As an example, I keep wrenches that are better than what the automakers put in their tire changing kits in my cars.  The same is true for financial disasters.  The planning is best done in the good times, like now.  Consider your financial and personal risks, and adjust your positions accordingly, realizing that no one can survive every panic.  Eventually you have to trust in God, because no earthly security system is comprehensive.

Photo Credit: Mark Stevens

Photo Credit: Mark Stevens

There’s one thing that is a misunderstanding about retirement investing. It’s not something that is out-and-out wrong. It’s just not totally right.

Many think the objective is to acquire a huge pile of assets.

Really, that’s half of the battle.

The true battle is this: taking a stream of savings, derived from a stream of income, and turning it into a robust stream of income in retirement.

That takes three elements to achieve: saving, compounding, and distribution.

What’s that, you say?  That’s no great insight?

Okay, let me go a little deeper then.

Saving is the first skirmish.  Few people develop a habit of saving when they are relatively young.  Try to make it as automatic as possible.  Aim for at least 10% of income, and more if you are doing well, particularly if your income is not stable.

Don’t forget to fund a “buffer fund” of 3-6 months of expenses to be used for only the following:

  • Emergencies
  • Gaining discounts for advance payment (if you know you have future income to replenish it)

The savings and the “buffer fund” provide the ability to enter into the second phase, compounding.  The buffer fund allows the savings to not be invaded for current use so they can be invested and compound their value into a greater amount.

Now, compounding is trickier than it may seem.  Assets must be selected that will grow their value including dividend payments over a reasonable time horizon, corresponding to a market cycle or so (4-8 years).  Growth in value should be in excess of that from expanding stock market multiples or falling interest rates, because you want to compound in the future, and low interest rates and high stock market multiples imply that future compounding opportunities are lower.

Thus, in one sense, you don’t benefit much from a general rise in values from the stock or bond markets.  The value of your portfolio may have risen, but at the cost of lower future opportunities.  This is more ironclad in the bond market, where the cash flow streams are fixed.  With stocks and other risky investments, there may be some ways to do better.

1) With asset allocation, overweight out-of-favor asset classes that offer above average cashflow yields.  Estimates on these can be found at GMO or Research Affiliates.  Rebalance into new asset classes when they become cheap.

2) Growth at a reasonable price investing: invest in stocks that offer capital growth opportunities at a inexpensive price and a margin of safety.  These companies or assets need to have large opportunities in front of them that they can reinvest their free cash flow into.  This is harder to do than it looks.  More companies look promising and do not perform well than those that do perform well.

3) Value investing: Find undervalued companies with a margin of safety that have potential to recover when conditions normalize, or find companies that can convert their resources to a better use that have the willingness to do that.  As your companies do well, reinvest in new possibilities that have better appreciation potential.

4) Distressed investing: in some ways, this can be market timing, but be willing to take risk when things are at their worst.  That can mean investing during a credit crisis, or investing in countries where conditions are somewhat ugly at present.  This applies to risky debt as well as stocks and hybrid instruments.  The best returns come out of investing near the bottom of a panic.  Do your homework carefully here.

5) Avoid losses.  Remember:

  • Margin of safety.  Valuable asset well in excess of debts, rule of law, and a bargain price.
  • In dealing with distress, don’t try to time the bottom — maybe use a 200-day moving average rule to limit risk and invest when the worst is truly past.
  • Avoid the areas where the hot money is buying and own assets being acquired by patient investors.

Adjust your portfolio infrequently to harvest things that have achieved their potential and reinvest in promising new opportunities.

That brings me to the final skirmish, distribution.

Remember when I said:

You don’t benefit much from a general rise in values from the stock or bond markets.  The value of your portfolio may have risen, but at the cost of lower future opportunities.

That goes double in the distribution phase. The objective is to convert assets into a stream of income.  If interest rates are low, as they are now, safe income will be low.  The same applies to stocks (and things like them) trading at high multiples regardless of what dividends they pay.

Don’t look at current income.  Look instead at the underlying economics of the business, and how it grows value.  It is far better to have a growing income stream than a high income stream with low growth potential.

Also consider the risks you may face, and how your assets may fare.  How are you exposed to risk from:

  • Inflation
  • Deflation and a credit crisis
  • Expropriation
  • Regulatory change
  • Trade wars
  • Etc.

And, as you need, liquidate some of the assets that offer the least future potential for your use.  In retirement, your buffer might need to be bigger because the lack of wage income takes away a hedge against unexpected expenses.

Conclusion

There are other issues, like taxes, illiquidity, and so forth to consider, but this is the basic idea on how to convert present excess income into a robust income stream in retirement.  Managing a pile of assets for income to live off of is a challenge, and one that most people are not geared up for, because poor planning and emotional decisions lead to subpar results.

Be wise and aim for the best future opportunities with a margin of safety, and let the retirement income take care of itself.  After all, you can’t rely on the markets or the policymakers to make income opportunities easy.  Choose wisely.

Photo Credit: Jen Goellnitz

Photo Credit: Jen Goellnitz

Okay, let’s roll the promoted stocks scoreboard:

TickerDate of ArticlePrice @ ArticlePrice @ 1/20/15DeclineAnnualizedDead?
GTXO5/27/20082.450.011-99.6%-55.6%
BONZ10/22/20090.350.000-99.9%-72.5%
BONU10/22/20090.890.000-100.0%-82.3%
UTOG3/30/20111.550.000-100.0%-92.0%Dead
OBJE4/29/2011116.000.069-99.9%-86.3%Dead
LSTG10/5/20111.120.004-99.7%-82.5%
AERN10/5/20110.07700.0000-100.0%-93.4%Dead
IRYS3/15/20120.2610.000-100.0%-100.0%Dead
RCGP3/22/20121.470.003-99.8%-89.5%
STVF3/28/20123.240.360-88.9%-54.2%
CRCL5/1/20122.220.004-99.8%-90.2%
ORYN5/30/20120.930.013-98.6%-80.1%
BRFH5/30/20121.160.466-59.8%-29.2%
LUXR6/12/20121.590.002-99.9%-92.3%
IMSC7/9/20121.50.910-39.3%-17.9%
DIDG7/18/20120.650.003-99.6%-89.1%
GRPH11/30/20120.87150.021-97.6%-82.5%
IMNG12/4/20120.760.010-98.7%-86.9%
ECAU1/24/20131.420.000-100.0%-98.4%
DPHS6/3/20130.590.003-99.5%-96.0%
POLR6/10/20135.750.001-100.0%-99.5%
NORX6/11/20130.910.008-99.1%-94.7%
ARTH7/11/20131.240.200-83.9%-69.7%
NAMG7/25/20130.850.013-98.5%-94.1%
MDDD12/9/20130.790.022-97.2%-95.9%
TGRO12/30/20131.20.056-95.3%-94.5%
VEND2/4/20144.340.655-84.9%-86.1%
HTPG3/18/20140.720.008-98.9%-99.5%
WSTI6/27/20141.350.150-88.9%-97.9%
APPG8/1/20141.520.035-97.7%-100.0%
1/20/2015Median-99.3%-89.8%

It is truly amazing how predictable the losses are from promoted stocks, and that is why you should never buy them. Today’s loser-in-waiting is Cardinal Resources [CDNL].  The promoters purport that this company will provide cheap clean fresh water to the world, and will make a fortune off of that.  Now let’s look at some facts:

What commends this stock to you?  Is it:

  • That it has never earned any money?
  • That the firm has had a negative net worth for the last four years?
  • That their auditors doubted on the last 10-K that this company would be a “going concern?”
  • That the company 12 months ago was known as JH Designs, which was in the “home staging and interior design services business?”
  • That the writers of the promotion got paid $30,000 to write the speculative fiction of the promotion?
  • That affiliated shareholders of CDNL paid another $670,000 to publish speculative fiction about the company to unwitting people in an effort to raise the stock price, so that they can sell their shares?

Here, have a look at part of the disclaimer written in five-point type on the glossy ad they sent me in the mail:

Resources Kingdom Limited was paid by non-affiliate shareholders who fully intend to sell their shares without notice into this Advertisement/market awareness campaign, including selling into increased volume and share price that may result from this Advertisement/market awareness campaign. The non-affiliate shareholders may also purchase shares without notice at any time before, during or after this Advertisement/market awareness campaign. Non-affiliate shareholders acted as advisors to Resources Kingdom Limited in this Advertisement and market awareness campaign, including providing outside research, materials, and information to outside writers to compile written materials as part of this market awareness campaign.

Thus, we know who is sponsoring and profiting from this scam.  It is existing shareholders who want to sell.  I can tell you with certainty that you should not buy this, and that if you own it, you should sell it.  There is one significant party that implicitly agrees with that assessment — the company itself, which issued shares at a price of ten cents per share in 2014, according to the recent 10-Q, if you look at the balance sheet and cash flow statements.

Avoid this company, and avoid all situations where stocks are promoted.  They are bad news for all investors.  Good investments never need promotion.