Category Archives: Speculation

Like a Cardinal, The Price Action Will Be Red

Okay, let’s roll the promoted stocks scoreboard: Ticker Date of Article Price @ Article Price @ 1/20/15 Decline Annualized Dead? GTXO 5/27/2008 2.45 0.011 -99.6% -55.6% BONZ 10/22/2009 0.35 0.000 -99.9% -72.5% BONU 10/22/2009 0.89 0.000 -100.0% -82.3% UTOG 3/30/2011 1.55 0.000 -100.0% -92.0% Dead OBJE 4/29/2011 116.00 0.069 -99.9% -86.3% Dead LSTG 10/5/2011 1.12 […]

Redacted Version of the December 2014 FOMC Statement

October 2014 December 2014 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. No change. This is another overestimate by the […]

Have Your Cake, Eat It Too, And End Up With Only Crumbs

Beware when the geniuses show up in finance. “I can make your money work harder!” some may say, and the simple-minded say, “Make the money sweat, man!  We have retirements to fund, and precious little time to do it!” Those that have read me for a while will know that I am an advocate for […]

Mantra: Interest Rates Have to Rise, Interest Rates Have to…

I thought of structuring this post like a fictional story, but I couldn’t figure out how to make it good enough for publication.  Well, truth is often stranger than fiction, so have a look at this Bloomberg article pointing at a 37% loss in the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT). A few points to start […]

Volatility Can Be Risk, At Rare Times

There is a saying in the markets that volatility is not risk. In general this is true, and helps to explain why measures like beta and standard deviation of returns do not measure risk, and are not priced by the market. After all, risk is the probability of losing money, and the severity thereof. It’s […]