Category Archives: Stocks

Even with Good Managers, Volatility Matters

This is another episode in my continuing saga on dollar-weighted returns. We eat dollar-weighted returns.  Dollar-weighted returns are the returns investors actually receive in a open-end mutual fund or an ETF, which includes their timing decisions, as opposed to the way that performance statistics are ordinarily stated, which assumes that investors buy-and-hold. In order for […]

Factor Glut

I use factors in my investing. What *are* factors, you ask?  Factors are quantitative variables that have been associated with potential outperformance.  What are some of these factors? Valuation (including yield) Price Momentum (and its opposite in some cases) Insider Trading Industry factors Neglect Low Volatility Quality (gross margins as a fraction of assets) Asset shrinkage […]

Numerator vs Denominator

Every now and then, a piece of good news gets announced, and then something puzzling happens.  Example: the GDP report comes out stronger than expected, and the stock market falls.  People scratch their heads and say, “Huh?” A friend of mine who I haven’t heard from in a while, Howard Simons, astutely would comment something […]

Managing Money for Retirement

Investing is difficult.  That said, we can make it harder still.  We can encourage people with little to no training to try to do it for themselves.  Sadly, many people get caught in the fear/greed cycle, and show up at the wrong time to buy and/or sell.  We get there late, and then our emotions […]

Retirement – A Luxury Good

Recently I was approached by Moneytips to ask my opinions about retirement. They sent me a long survey of which I picked a number of questions to answer. You can get the benefits of the efforts of those writing on this topic today in a free e-book, which is located here: http://www.moneytips.com/retiree-next-door-ebook.  The eBook will be […]

Redacted Version of the September 2014 FOMC Statement

July 2014 September 2014 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that growth in economic activity rebounded in the second quarter. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. This is another overestimate by the FOMC. […]

Goes Down Double-Speed (Update 2)

This is the third time I have written this article during this bull market.  Here are the other two times, with dates: Goes Down Double-Speed 2/17/2011 Goes Down Double-Speed (Updated) 5/22/2013 The first time, we had doubled since the bottom.  Second time, up 2.5x.  Now it is a triple since the bottom.  That doesn’t happen often, and […]