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February 2015
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Aleph Blog
- Advice on Organizing Asset Allocations and Managers 26 February 2015
  I was reading an occasional blast email from my friend Tom Brakke, when he mentioned a free publication from Redington, a UK asset management firm that employs actuaries, among others. I was very impressed with what I read in the 32-page publication, and highly recommend it to those who select investment managers or create asset […]
  David Merkel
- A New Exercise in Industry Rotation 17 February 2015
  At Abnormal Returns, over the weekend, Tadas Viskanta featured a free article from Credit Suisse called the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015. It featured articles on whether the returns on industries as a whole mean-revert or have momentum, whether there is a valuation effect on industry returns, “social responsibility” in investing, and the existence […]
  David Merkel
- One Dozen Reasons Why the Average Person Underperforms In Investing, Part 1 13 February 2015
  Brian Lund recently put up a post called 5 Reasons You Deserve to Lose Every Penny in the Stock Market. Though I don’t endorse everything in his article, I think it is worth a read. I’m going to tackle the same question from a broader perspective, and write a different article. As we often say, […]
  David Merkel
- On Bitcoin 12 February 2015
  I’ve generally been quiet about Bitcoin. Most of that is because it is a “cult” item. It tends to have defenders and detractors, and not a lot of people with a strong opinion who are in-between. There’s no reward for taking on something that has significance bordering on religious for some… even if it proves […]
  David Merkel
- Fade High Price-Sensitivity Assets in Crude Oil 4 February 2015
  This will be a short post. If we get a significant updraft in the price of oil, and Saudi production policy has not changed, you might want to sell crude oil price-sensitive assets. The marginal cost of production for a lot of crude oil that is shale related is around $50/barrel, and that is where […]
  David Merkel
- An Idea Whose Time Should Not Come 4 February 2015
  I get fascinated at how we never learn. Well, “never” is a little too strong because the following article from Bloomberg, Meet the 80-Year-Old Whiz Kid Reinventing the Corporate Bond had its share of skeptics, each of which had it right. The basic idea is this: issue a corporate bond and then package it with […]
  David Merkel
- Learning from the Past, Part 3 1 February 2015
  I wish I could tell you that it was easy for me to stop making macroeconomic forecasts, once I set out to become a value investor. It’s difficult to get rid of convictions, especially if they are simple ones, such as which way will interest rates go? In the early-to-mid ’90s, many were convinced that […]
  David Merkel
- Talking About Value Investing and Fed Policy 30 January 2015
  Here is the second part of my interview on RT Boom/Bust. It was recorded while the FOMC was releasing its statement, so I had no idea at that time as to what the announcement had been. The interview covers my view of Apple (not one of my strong points), Fed Policy, and what should value […]
  David Merkel
- Talking Mostly About Earnings 29 January 2015
  I was on RT Boom/Bust yesterday. The segment that I taped here was mostly on corporate earnings. There’s only seven minutes of me here — so enjoy it if you will.
  David Merkel
- Redacted Version of the January 2015 FOMC Statement 29 January 2015
  December 2014 January 2015 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Shades GDP up. This is another overestimate […]
  David Merkel

Disclaimer:

David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures. Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions. Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

Copyright David Merkel (c) 2007-2014 Disclaimer: David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures. Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions. Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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