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Getting a Job in Insurance

Getting a Job in Insurance

Photo Credit: Boston Public Library

Well, I never thought I would get this question, but here it is:

Thank you for your dedication to your blog.

I was wondering if you have any skill development advice for recent graduates to gain a job in insurance – is technical or programming skills the most important or perhaps making business cases, or showing that you can make sound and reasonable conclusions?

Thank you for your time.

Kind regards,

There are many things to do in insurance.? Some are technical, like being an actuary, accountant, investment analyst/manager/trader, underwriter, lawyer or computer programmer.? Some take a great deal of interpersonal skills, like being an administrator, marketer or agent.? Then there are the drones in customer service and claims.? Ancillary jobs can include secretaries, janitors, human resources, and a variety of other helpers to the main positions.

Before I begin, I want to say a few things.? FIrst, if you work in insurance, be kind to the drones and helpers.? It is the right thing to do, but beyond that, they don’t have to go beyond their job description — they know their opportunities are limited — it is only a job.? Treat them with respect and kindness, and they will go above and beyond for you.? I learned this positively first-hand, and a few of them 20-30 years older explained it to me when I noticed they weren’t helping others who were full of themselves.

Second, the insurance industry does a lot to train drones, helpers, agents, marketers, underwriters, and younger people generally, if they are willing to work at it.? There are self-study courses and exams that vary based on what part of the industry you are in.? Take the courses and exams, and your value goes up — it is not obvious how that will work, but it often pays off.

Third, it is not a growing industry, but lots of Baby Boomers are retiring, and leave openings for others.? Also, drone and helper positions often don’t pay so well at the entry level, and turnover is somewhat high.? The same is true of agents — more on that later.

Fourth, watch “The Billion Dollar Bubble,” and episodes of Banacek if you want.? The actual practices of how they did things in the ’60s and ’70s don’t matter so much, but it gets the characterization of the various occupations in insurance right.

FIfth, insurance is a little like the “Six Blind Men and the Elephant.”? Actuaries, Accountants, Administrators, Marketers, Underwriters, and Investment Managers (and Lawyers and Programmers) each have a few bits of the puzzle — the challenge is to work together effectively.? It is easier said than done.? You can read my articles on my work life to get a good idea of how that was.? I’ve written over 30 articles on the topic.? Here are most of the links:

DId I leave out the one on insurance company lawyers?? Guess not.

Sixth, it is easier to teach those with technical skills how the business works than to teach drones and helpers technical skills.? It’s kind of like how you can’t easily teach math and science to humanities and social science majors, but you can do the reverse (with higher probability).? It is worth explaining the business to computer programmers.? It is worth explaining marketing and sales to actuaries.? Accountants get better when they understand what is going on behind the line items, and maybe a touch of what the actuaries are doing (and vice-versa).

Seventh, only a few of the areas are close to global — the administrators, the underwriters, the actuaries, and the marketers — and that’s where the fights can occur, or, the most profitable collaborations can occur.

Eighth, insurance companies vary in terms of how aggressive they are, and the dynamism of positions and ethical conundrums vary in direct proportion.

So, back to your question, and I will go by job category:

  1. Drones and helpers typically don’t need a college education, but if they show initiative, they can grow into a limited number of greater positions.
  2. Computer programmers probably need a college degree, but if you are clever, and work at another insurance job first, you might be able to wedge your way in.? While I was an actuary, I turned down a programming job, despite no formal training in programming.
  3. Lawyers go through the standard academic legal training, pass the bar exams, nothing that unusual about that, but finding one that truly understands insurance law well is tough.
  4. Accountants are similar.? Academic training, pass the accounting exams, work for a major accounting firm and become a CPA — but then you have to learn the idiosyncrasies of insurance accounting, which blends uncertainty and discounting with interest.? The actuaries take care of a lot of it, but capturing and categorizing the right data is a challenge.
  5. Actuaries have to be good with math to a high degree, a college degree is almost required, and have to understand in a broad way all of the other disciplines.? The credentialing is tough, and may take 5-10 years, with many exams, but you often get study time at work.
  6. Agents — can you sell?? Can you do a high quality sale that actually meets the needs of the client?? That may not require college, but it does require significant intelligence in understanding people, and understanding your product.? Many agents can fob some bad policies off on some simpletons, but it comes back to bite, because the business does not last, and the marketing department either revokes your commissions, or puts you on a trouble list.? “Market conduct” is a big thing in insuring individuals.? The agents that win are the ones that serve needs, are honest, and make many sales.? Many people are looking for someone they can trust with reasonable returns, rather than the highest possible return.? One more note: there are many exams and certifications available.
  7. Marketers — This is the province of agents that were mediocre, and wanted more reliable hours and income.? It’s like the old saw, “Those who cannot do, teach. Those who cannot teach, administrate.”? It is possible to get into the marketing area by starting at a low level helper, but it is difficult to manage agents if you don’t have their experience of rejection.? Again, there are certifications available, but nothing will train you like trying to sell insurance policies.
  8. Underwriters — as with most of these credentials, a college degree helps, but there is a path for those without such a degree if you start at a low level as a helper, show initiative, and learn, learn, learn. Underwriters make a greater difference in coverages that are less common.? Where the law of large numbers applies, underwriters recede.? The key to being an underwriter is developing specialized expertise that allows for better risk selection.? There are certifications and exams for this, pursue them particularly if you don’t have a college degree.? Pursue them anyway — as an actuary, I received some training in underwriting.? It is intensely interesting, especially if you have a mind for analyzing the why and how of insured events.
  9. Investment personnel — this is a separate issue and is covered in my articles in how one can get a job in finance.? That said, insurance can be an easier road into investing, if you get a helper position, and display competence.? (After all, how did I get here?)? You have to be ready to deal with fixed income, which? means your math skills have to be good.? As a bonus, you might have to deal with directly originated assets like mortgages, credit tenant leases, private placements, odd asset-backed securities, and more.? It is far more dynamic than most imagine, if you are working for an adventurous firm.? (I have only worked for adventurous firms, or at least adventurous divisions of firms.)? Getting the CFA credential is quite useful.
  10. Administrators — the best administrators have a bit of all the skills.? They have to if they are managing the company aright.? Most of them are marketers, and? a few are actuaries, accountants,or lawyers.? Marketing has an advantage, because it is the main constraint that insurance companies face.? It is a competitive market, and those who make good sales prosper.? VIrtually all administrators are college educated, and most have done additional credentialing.? Good administrators can do project, people and data management.? it is not easy, and personally, few of the administrators I have known were truly competent.? If you have the skills, who knows?? You could be a real success.

Please understand that I have my biases, and talk to others in the field before you pursue this in depth.? Informational interviewing is wise in any job search, and helps you understand what you are really getting into, including corporate culture, which can make or break your career.? Some people thrive in ugly environments, and some die.??Some people get bored to death in squeaky-clean environments, and some thrive.

So be wise, do your research, and if you think insurance would be an interesting career, pursue it assiduously.? Then, remember me when you are at the top, and you need my clever advice. 😉

 

On Finding a Job in Finance

On Finding a Job in Finance

Photo Credit: Chris-H?vard Berge

I was approached by a younger friend for advice.? This is my response to his questions below:

Thank you for agreeing to do this for me. I would love to have an actual conversation with you but unfortunately, I think that between all of the classes, exams, and group project meetings I have this week it would prove to be too much of a hassle for both of us to try to set up a time.

1. What professional and soft skills do you need to be successful in this career and why?
2. What advice would you give to someone considering working in this field?
3. What are some values/ethics that have been important to you throughout your career?
4. I understand that you currently run a solo operation, but are there any leadership skills you have needed previously in your career? Any examples?
5. What made you decide to make the switch to running your own business?

Thanks again,

ZZZ

What professional and soft skills do you need to be successful in this career and why?

I’ve written at least two articles on this:

How Do I Find a Job in Finance?

How Do I Find a Job in Finance? (Part 2)

Let me answer the question more directly.? You need to understand the basics of how businesses operate.? How do they make money?? How do they control risk?

Now, the academics will show you their models, and you should know those models.? What is more important is understanding the weaknesses of those models because they may weakly explain how stocks in aggregate are priced, but they are little good at understanding how corporations operate.? The real world is not as ideal as the academic economists posit.

It is useful to read broadly.? It is useful to dig into a variety of financial reports from smaller firms.? Why smaller firms?? They are simpler to understand, and there is more variation in how they do.? ?Learn to read through the main financial statements well.? Understand how the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement interact.? Look at the footnotes and try to understand what they mean.? Pick an industry and compare all of the companies.? I did that with trucking in 1994 and learned a boatload.? This aids in picking up practical accounting knowledge, which is more powerful when you can compare across industries.

As for soft skills, the ability to deal with people on a firm and fair basis is huge.? Keeping your word is big as well.? When I was a bond trader, I ate losses when I made promises on trades that went wrong.? In the present era, I have compensated clients for losses from mistaken trades.

Here’s another “soft” skill worth considering.? Many employers are aghast at the lousy writing skills of young people coming out of college, and rightly so.? Make sure that your ability to communicate in a written form is at a strong level.

Oral communication is also important.? If you have difficulty speaking to groups, you might try something like Toastmasters.

Many of these things come only with practice on the job, so don’t think that you have to have everything together in order to do well — the important thing is to improve over time.? Young people are not expected to be as polished as their older colleagues.

What advice would you give to someone considering working in this field?

It’s a little crowded in finance.? That is partially because it attracts a lot of people who think it will be easy money.? If you are really good, the crowding shouldn’t be much of a hurdle.? But if you don’t think that you are in the top quartile, there are some alternatives to help you grow and develop.

  • Consider developing your skills at a small bank or insurer.? You will be forced to be a generalist, which sets you up well for future jobs.? It also forces you to confront how difficult the economics of smaller firms are, and how costly/difficult it is to change strategy.? For a clever person, it offers a lot of running room if you work for a firm that is more entrepreneurial
  • Or, consider working in the finance area of an industrial firm.? Finance is not only about selling financial products — it is about the buyers as well.
  • Work for a government or quasi-governmental entity in their finance area.? If you can show some competence there, it would be notable.? The inefficiencies might give you good ideas for what could be a good business.

What are some values/ethics that have been important to you throughout your career?

Here are some:

  • Be honest
  • Follow laws and regulations
  • Work hard for your employer
  • Keep building your skills; at 57, I am still building my skills.
  • Don’t let work rob you of other facets of life — family, friends, etc.? Many become well-paid slaves of their organization, but never get to benefit personally outside of work.
  • Avoid being envious; just focus on promoting the good of the entity that you work for.
  • Try to analyze the culture of a firm before you join it.? Culture is the most important aspect that will affect how happy you are working there.

I understand that you currently run a solo operation, but are there any leadership skills you have needed previously in your career? Any examples?

This is a cute story:?Learning Leadership.? I have also written three series of articles on how I grew in the firms that I worked for:

There’s a lot in these articles.? They are some of my best stories, and they help to illustrate corporate life.? Here’s one more:?My 9/11 Experience.? What do you do under pressure?? What I did on 9/11 was a good example of that.

I know I have a lot more articles on the topic on this, but those are the easiest to find.

What made you decide to make the switch to running your own business?

I did very well in my own investing from 2000-2010, and wanted to try out my investing theories as a business.? That said, from 2011-2017, it worked out less well than I would have liked as value investing underperformed the market as a whole.

That said, I proceed from principle, and continue to follow my investment discipline.? It follows from good business management principles, and so I continue, waiting for the turn in the market cycle, and improving my ability to analyze corporations.

Nonetheless, my business does well, just not as well as I would like.

I hope you do well in your career.? Let me know how you do as you progress, and feel free to ask more questions.

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 25

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 25

In my view, these were my best posts written between February and April 2013:

Wall Street Hates You

I have a saying, ?Don?t buy what someone wants to sell you. Buy what you have researched.?

And so I would tell everyone: don?t give brokers discretion over you accounts, and don?t let them convince you to buy unusual bonds, or obscure securities of any sort.? By unusual bonds, I mean structured notes, and eminent men like Joshua Brown and Larry Swedroe encourage the same thing: Don?t buy them.

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part III

Why being careful with credit ratings is smart.

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part IV

Be wary of odd asset classes; they are odd for a reason.

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part V

Where I do odd things in order to serve my client.

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part VI

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part VII

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part IX

Odd stuff, but particularly insightful into some of the perverse dynamics inside investment departments.

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part VIII

How I led the successful effort to modify the Maryland Life Insurance Investment Law, and acted for the good of the public.

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part X (The End)

Where I explain the odd bits of being portfolio manager, while succeeding with structured bonds amid difficult markets.

Berkshire Hathaway & Variable Annuities

I explain the good, bad, and ugly off of Berkshire Hathaway’s reinsurance deal with CIGNA.

Advice to Two Readers

Where I opine on some Sears bonds, and also on flu pandemic risk at RGA.

What I Would & Would Not Teach College Students About Finance

Mostly, I would teach them to think broadly, and realize the most of the complex investment math is easy to get wrong.

My Theory of Asset Pricing

My replacement for MPT using contingent claims theory.

On Insurance Investing, Part 4

On finding companies with conservative insurance reserving

On Insurance Investing, Part 5

On the squishy stuff, where there are no hard guidelines.

On Time Horizons

People shorten and lengthen their time horizons at the wrong time.

The Education of an Investment Risk Manager, Part IV

On two odd situations inside a life insurance company.

The Education of an Investment Risk Manager, Part V

On how we replaced a manager of managers.

Value Investing Flavors

Explains how there are many ways to do value investing.

Classic: Using Investment Advice, Part 1

Classic: Using Investment Advice, Part 2

Classic: Using Investment Advice, Part 3

Classic: Using Investment Advice, Part 4 [Tread Warily on Media Stock Tips]

Understand yourself, understand the advisor, understand the counsel that is offered, and finally, we wary of what you here through the media, including me.

Classic: Avoid the Dangers of Data-Mining, Part 1

Classic: Avoid the Dangers of Data-Mining, Part 2

There are many ways to torture the data to make it confess what you want to hear. ?Avoid that.

Classic: The Fundamentals of Market Tops

Where I explain what conditions are like when market tops are near.

At the Towson University Investment Group?s International Market Summit, Part 5

Where I answer the question:?Where does academic theory fail in finance and in economics?

Classic: Separating Weak Holders From the Strong

Classic: Get to Know the Holders? Hands, Part 1

Classic: Get to Know the Holders? Hands, Part 2

Articles that explain the fundamental??basis that underlies technical analysis.

Classic: The Long and Short of Trend Investing

How to play trends without getting skinned.

Full Disclosure: long RGA and BRK/B

Ten Years of Investment Writing

Ten Years of Investment Writing

I’m late on this.? My first foray into public writing on investing was when I started writing at RealMoney on October 17th, 2003.? But how did I get there?

Sadly, almost all of the works of RealMoney prior to 2008 are not accessible.? My first effort was writing Jim Cramer the day after General American Life Insurance failed on August 10, 1999.? He wrote a short piece asking why no one was paying attention to the failure of a major life insurer.? He wanted to know what happened.? I had heard about the failure, and so I searched for more data on it, and I saw Cramer’s article, only one hour old, so I sent him an e-mail as “your friendly neighborhood investment actuary.”

I explained the situation to him in about three hundred words, and lo and behold, my e-mail was featured in a post by Cramer that very day saying how amazing it was that he could get such a cogent explanation that was not available elsewhere on the web.

Not wanting to wear out my welcome with Cramer, I e-mailed him maybe eighty times over the next four years, with occasional e-mails to Herb Greenberg and Howard Simons.? I e-mailed mostly bond market and insurance information.? But in the period from 2000-2003, information on the bond market from an active institutional participant was interesting.? At least, I thought so, and Cramer usually returned my e-mails, as did Herb Greenberg.

In August 2003, after I had taken a job as an insurance equity analyst at a financial services only hedge fund, Cramer e-mailed me, asking me to write for RealMoney.? I don’t have the actual e-mail, but he said something to the effect of “You write better than most of our contributors.? Please come write for us.”

I went to my boss to ask permission, and he refused.? After some pleading on my part, he eventually relented.? That said, when Cramer wanted me to appear on “Mad Money,” he refused, and did not give in.? He did not want the name of his firm associated with Cramer.? I was disappointed, but I understood.

At RealMoney, I wrote about a wide variety of topics as I do at Aleph Blog.? My editor one day called me and after we chatted for a while she said to me, “Did you know that you are our most profitable columnist after Cramer?”? I expressed surprise, and asked how it could be.? She said that I wrote more comments in the columnist conversation than most, and my comments were substantial.? Also, readers would read and re-read my posts, which was rare at RealMoney.

My objective was to teach investors how to think.? I did not want to get into the “buy this, sell that” game.? My most unpleasant memories revolve around bad calls that I made on a few stocks.? I think it was fewer than five stocks, but when you get it badly wrong, passions are heightened.

Cramer and I often disagreed with each other at RealMoney.? I felt I had friends with Cody Willard and Howard Simons, and a few others like Aaron Task, Roger Nussbaum, Peter Eavis, etc.? If I didn’t mention you, please don’t take that as a slight, I just can’t remember everything now.? I thought highly of most of the cast at RealMoney, including the news staff, who would occasionally call me for advice on bonds, insurance, or investing theory issues.

I resisted the idea of starting a blog.? I said to my editors at RealMoney, “The Columnist Conversation is my blog.”? But in early 2007, while trolling the comment streams on Jim Cramer’s blog, and making comments defending him, a number of readers told me that I was one of the best writers on the site, so why didn’t I emerge from Cramer’s shadow?

I thought about this hard for about a month, and then I did it, after doing my research.? I created Aleph Blog, with the first post coming on 2/17/2007, and the first real post on 2/20/2007.? That first real post was prescient, and laid out a lot of what would happen in the bust.

But as I started, the Shanghai Market crashed, and Seeking Alpha pushed one of my posts to the top of their front page.? Cody Willard pushed another post of mine to his media contacts.

I was off and running without doing that much to advertise my blog.? I appreciated that because I think the best way of advertising my blog is to write good content.? I don’t generally like to quote large amounts of the writing of others, and add a few comments from me.? To me, that seems lazy.? I would far rather spend some time, and give you my thoughts.? I’m not always right, but I am always trying to give you my best.

After ten months of blogging, I stopped contributing to RealMoney because I liked the editorial freedom that bloggng offered.? I was never writing for RealMoney in order to get paid, so not getting paid at Aleph Blog was not a problem.

At Aleph Blog, I write about what resonates within me.? That usually produces the best results, though because I write about a wide variety of topics, some people don’t know what to expect of me, and aren’t interested in what I write.? I understand that, and I am not unhappy with a smaller audience.

What I did not expect when I started blogging was that I would do:

  • Book Reviews
  • The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager
  • The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager
  • The Education of an Investment Risk Manager
  • The Rules

and other series at my blog.? I did not consider that I might be a conference blogger for notable institutions like Bloomberg and the Cato Institute.

I also did not realize that I would take aggressive stances against a wide number of semi-fraudulent financial practices like penny stocks, structured notes, private REITs, and a wide variety of other bad investments.

It’s been a lot of fun, and I did it to give something back.? With great power comes great responsibility, and that is why I blog.? Nothing more, nothing less.

May the Lord Jesus Christ bless you.

Thanks for reading me.

David

The Education of an Investment Risk Manager, Part IX (The End)

The Education of an Investment Risk Manager, Part IX (The End)

I’m bringing this series to a close with some odds and ends — a few links, a few stories, etc.? Here goes:

1) One day, out of the blue, the Chief Investment Officer walked into my office, which was odd, because he rarely left the executive suite, and asked something like: “We own stocks in the General Account, but not as much as we used to.? How much implicit equity exposure do we get from our variable annuities?”? The idea was this: as the equity markets go up, so does our fee stream.? If the equity market goes up or down 1%, how much does the present value of fees change?? I told him I would get back to him, but the answer was an easy one, taking only a few hours to calculate & check — the answer was a nickel, and the next day I walked up to the executive suite and told him: “If we have 20% of our liabilities in variable annuities it is the equivalent to having 1% of assets invested in the stock market.

2) This post, Why are we the Lucky Ones? could have been a post in this series.? At a small broker-dealer, all sorts of charlatans bring their ideas for financing.? The correct answer is usually no, but that conflicts with hope.? Sadly, Finacorp did not consult me on the last deal, which is part of the reason why they don’t exist now.

3) The first half of the post, The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part IX, would also fit into this series — the amount of math that went into the analysis was considerable, but the regulatory change that drove it led us to stop investing in most RMBS.

4) While working for a hedge fund, I had the opportunity to sit in on asset-liability management meetings for a bank affiliated with our firm.? I was floored by the low level of rigor in the analyses — it made me think that every bank should have at least one actuary to do analyses with the level of rigor in the insurance industry.

Now, this doesn’t apply to the big banks and investment banks because of their complexity, but even they could do well to borrow ideas from the insurance industry, and do stress testing.? Go variable by variable, on a long term basis, and ask:

  • At what level does this bring line profits to zero?
  • At what level does this bring company profits to zero?
  • At what level does this imperil the solvency of the company?

5) This story is a little weird.? One day my boss called me in and said, “There’s a meeting of corporate actuaries at the ACLI in DC.? You are our representative.? They will be discussing setting up an industry fund to cover losses from failures of Guaranteed Investment Contracts.? Your job is to make sure the fund is not created.”

His concern in 1996 was that it would become a black hole, and would encourage overly aggressive writing of GICs.? He didn’t want to get stuck with losses.? I told him the persuasion was not my forte, but I would do my best.? I said that my position was weak, because we were the smallest company at the table, but he said to me, “You have a voice at the table.? Use it.”

A few days later, I was on the Metroliner down to DC.? I tried to understand both sides of the argument.?? I even prayed about it.? Finally it struck me: what might be the unintended consequences from the regulators from setting up a private guaranty fund?? What might be the moral hazard implications?

At the meeting, I found one friend in the room from AIG.? We had worked together, and AIG didn’t like the idea either.? In the the early parts of the meeting it seemed like there were 10 for the industry fund, and 3 against, AIG, Principal, and us.? Not promising.? We talked through various aspects of the proposal, the three representatives taking the opposite side — it seemed like no one was changing their minds, but some opinions were weaker on the other side.

By 3PM the moderator asked for any final comments before the vote.? I raised my hand and said something like, “You have to think of the law of unintended consequences here.? What will be the impact on competition here?? What if one us, a large company decides to be more aggressive as a result of this?? What if regulators look at this as a template, and use it to ask for similar funds more broadly in life insurance??? The state guaranty funds would certainly like the industry to put even more skin into the game.”

The room went silent for a few seconds, and the vote was taken.

4-9 against creating the guaranty fund.

The moderator looked shocked.

The meeting adjourned and I went home.? The next day I told my boss we had won against hard odds.? He was in a grumpy mood so he said, “Yeah, great,” barely acknowledging me.? This is the thanks I get for trying something very hard?

6) In early 2000, I had an e-mail dialogue with Ken Fisher.? I wanted to discuss value investing with him, but he challenged me to develop my own proprietary sources of value.? Throw away the CFA syllabus, and all of the classics — look for what is not known.

So I sat down with my past trading and looked for what I did best.? What I found was that I did best buying strong companies in damaged industries.? That was the key idea that led to my eight portfolio rules. Value investing with industry rotation may be a little unusual, but it fit my new view of the world. I couldn’t always analyze changes in pricing power directly, but I could look at industries where prices had crashed, and pick through the rubble.

In Closing

My career has been odd and varied, which has led to some of the differential insights that I write about here.? In some ways, we are still beginning to understand investment risks — for example, how many saw the financial crisis coming — where a self-reinforcing boom would give way to a self-reinforcing bust?? Not many, and even I did not anticipate the intensity of the bust.? At least I didn’t own any banks, and only owned sound insurers.

Investment risk is elusive because it depends partly on the collective reactions of investors, and not on external shocks like wars, hurricanes, bad policy, etc.? We can create our own crises by moving together in packs, going from bust to boom and back again.

It is my hope after all these words that some will approach investing realizing that avoiding risks is as important as seeking returns, and sometimes, more important.? It is not what you earn, but what you keep that matters.

Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 22

Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 22

These articles appeared between May 2012 and July 2012:

On Distribution Formulas

Most formulas for distributing income from an endowment or a a savings/investment fund are too liberal.? If you want the purchasing power to last, distribute less.

Correlating Risky Assets

How do correlations come into existence with risky assets.? This piece explains.

Simple Stock Valuation

An exploration of Eddy Elfenbein’s simple stock valuation model.

Don?t Become the Market

When any firm becomes the dominant provider of a good or service, it should ask whether it has mispriced.? A veiled critique of JPM’s whale trade in the credit markets.

In Defense of Nothing

Manufacturing is overrated.? We’ve got enough things, now we need services to make our lives richer.

Little Things are Important

When leverage is high, little things failing can lead to large and bad results.

High Profits

Labor is not scarce, so profit margins are high.? Will that last forever?? No, but it might be a while.

23,401 Auctions

391 Auctions

A pair of pieces suggesting that the markets could be better off if we held auctions once a second, or once a minute.

The Rules, Part XXXII

Dynamic hedging only has the potential of working on deep markets.

Arbitrage pricing can reveal proper prices in smaller less liquid markets if there are larger, more liquid markets to compare against.? The process cannot work in reverse, except by accident

The Rules, Part XXXIII

When politicians don?t have answers, they blame speculators, financiers (Wall Street), or foreigners.? They do anything to take the spotlight off their culpability or ineptitude.

Aim for the Middle

Very basic advice that tells you that the best returns come from taking moderate risk.

Works if Small, Fails if Large

Another bogus theory of asset allocation that works today, because markets favor it, and not enough people are using it.

Strong Hands

On the value of long-term investors holding stocks that you hold.

Logical Links

If there are a lot of links in a chain of reasoning, it is likely to be wrong.

Modified Glass-Steagall

I suggest a number of reforms that would be more effective than reinstating Glass-Steagall.

Don?t Blame Money Market Funds

On the hypocrisy of the SEC and the banking regulators

Do Insurance Stocks Do Better than Average Over the Long-Run?

The answer is probably, but not certainly.? Really, it is a mess.

On Life Insurance and Life Reinsurance

Explains why I like the life reinsurance oligopoly

On Bond Ladders

The most robust strategy for interest rates; always second-best, and never the worst.

On Internal Indexes, like LIBOR

An Analysis of Three-Month LIBOR 2005-2008

On Floating Rates

In most scandals, not enough attention is paid to those who should have been questioning the situation and did not.? There were parties angling for higher LIBOR and lower LIBOR.? Anytime you borrow or lend using an index, you assent to the method of the index.? What, you didn’t analyze it?

The Failure of Government-Provided Prosperity

The government has almost no control over prosperity, and yet it tries to take credit for it, and ends up ruining prosperity through deficits and loose monetary policy.

Grow Embedded Value

The main idea in investing is finding investments that will compound your money at an above average rate, with a margin of safety.

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part I

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part II

The beginning of my eight-part series on mortgage bonds.? I did it well for three years.

Packages! Packages!

A tale of my younger investing days, when I would mail companies for data.

Missing Earnings Estimates

Why occasional earnings misses are desirable.

Forget Your Cost Basis

All good investment decision-making is forward looking.? Whether you are buying or selling, it doesn?t matter where prices have been in the past.

Concentrated Interest

This piece generated a lot of heat, but I still stand behind it.? The concentrated interest of a profit motive is a good thing, and all of the government services do not affect what you have done at all.? The entrepreneur is a hero, whether in business, government, or elsewhere.

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