Search Results for: double speed

Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2019 Update

Graphic Credit: Aleph Blog, natch… same for the rest of the graphs here. Data is from the Federal Reserve and Jeremy Siegel

Here’s my once a quarter update. If you owned the S&P 500 at the end of 2019, it was priced to give you a return of 2.26%/year over the next 10 years. That said, the market has changed a lot in the last 2.6 months –as of the close of business on March 18th the market was priced to give you a return of 7.28%/year over the next 10 years. Finally, you have a chance to double your money over the next ten years, while a 10-year Treasury would give you 1.5%/year over the same horizon. To match the expected returns on stocks at this point in bonds, you would have to invest in junk debt, but junk typically doesn’t go longer than 10 years, and who knows what the defaults will be over the next two years?

Now, actual returns from similar levels have varied quite a bit in the past, so don’t take the 7.28%/year as a guarantee. WIth a 2%/year dividend yield, price returns have ranged from -0.95%/year to 6.89%/year, with most scenarios being near the high end.

At the end of 2019, valuations were higher than any other time in the past 75 years, excluding late 1964, and the dot-com bubble. It is not surprising there was a bear market coming. Because “there was no alternative” to stocks, though, it took an odd external event or two (COVID-19, oil price war) to kick bullish investors into bear mode. This was not a supply and demand issue in the primary markets. This was a shift in estimates of investors regarding the short-term effects of the two problems extended to a much longer time horizon.

Two more graphs, and then some commentary on portfolio management. First, the graph on the channel the market travels in, subject to normal conditions:

This graph shows how the model estimates the price level of the S&P 500. It is most accurate at the present, because the model works off of total returns, not just the price level. The gap between the red and blue lines is mostly the effect of the present value of future dividends, which are reflected in the red line and not the blue.

The maximum and minimum lines have hindsight bias baked into them, but it gives you a visual idea of how high the market was at any given point in time — note the logarithmic scale though. If you are in the middle using linear distance, you are a little closer to the bottom than the top.

And finally, that’s how well the model fits on a total return basis. Aside from the early years, it’s pretty tight. The regression explains more than 88% of the total variation in returns.

Implications for Asset Allocation

If you haven’t read it, take a look at my article from yesterday. I am usually pretty disciplined about rebalancing, but this bear market I waited a while, and created two schedules for my stock and balanced fund products to adjust my cash and bond versus stock levels. I decided that I would bring my cash levels to normal if the market is priced to give its historical return, i.e. 9.5%/year over the next ten years. That would be around 2100 on the S&P 500. Then I would go to maximum stock when the market is offering a 16%/year return, which is around 1300 on the S&P 500.

The trouble is this is psychologically tough to do when the market is falling rapidly. I am doing it, but when I rebalance at the end of the day I sometimes wonder if I am throwing my money into the void. Remember, I am the largest investor in my strategies, and if my ideas don’t work, I will lose clients, so this is not an idle matter for me. I’m doing my best, though my call on the market was better during the first decade of the 2000s, not the second decade.

In the process, I bought back RGA at prices at which I love to have it, and have been reinvesting in many of the companies I own at some really nice levels… but for now, things keep going down. That’s the challenge.

In summary, we have better levels to invest at today. Stocks offer better returns, but aren’t screaming cheap. Some stocks look dirt cheap. Most people are scared at the speed of the recent fall. I view my job as always doing my best for clients, and that means buying as the market falls. I will keep doing that, but I have already lost a few clients as a result of doing that, even though I tell them in advance that I will do that. So, I will soldier on and do my best.

Full disclosure: long RGA for clients and me

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 42

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 42

Photo Credit: michel D’anastasio

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In my view, these were my best posts written between May 2017 and July 2017:

The Biggest Problems For Investors Today

The “two-minute question” with a half hour response.

Perceived Versus Real Risk Tolerance

Why questions about objective measures of risk tolerance need to be asked before querying someone about their subjective risk tolerance.

Overvaluation is NOT Due to Passive Investing

Active managers as a group are very similar to the index.? That shares move from active to passive managers does not affect their valuation, just as one active manager selling to another does not.

Goes Down Double-Speed (Update 4)

Why the current bull market, the second longest on record, is both amazing and boring at the same time.

The Doubling Rule

The Doubling Rule, Redux

Slightly more complex than the “Rule of 72” but more accurate as you get further away from 8%.

The Rule of K: If R is the interest rate multiplied by 100, money doubles in K/R years, where K = 70 + (R ? 2)/3

Why Social Security Should not be Invested in the Stock Market

This was rejected at the founding of Social Security because of the socializing of America’s private companies as a result.? Also, given that politicians would never make decision immediately after a crisis, there would be the tendency to buy in when expensive, and becoming the ultimate dumb money of the market.? Assets subject to the whims of politicians rarely get managed well — they are the worst at greed and fear.

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Note: this is the last “Best of Aleph Blog” post for a while.? My policy was don’t decide on what’s best for a year.? As it is, given that my posting rate has slowed, these posts may come even more rarely, because there won’t be enough in some three month windows to justify a post.

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 37

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 37

Photo Credit: michel D’anastasio

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In my view, these were my best posts written between February 2016 and April 2016:

On Investment Charlatans

Mostly regarding some scammers pitching preferred stock, but without calling it that.? Always be wary of those that won’t be direct with you.

If Someone Tries to Sell You, Don?t Buy It

?Don?t buy what someone else wants to sell you. ?Buy what you have researched that you want to buy.?

They Can?t Help You

On a Letter from an Expatriate

On another type of charlatans, the political sorts.? Two of the few things I had to say prior to the elections in 2016 — the first one about how the problems were bigger than the government could solve, yet the politicians would still promise solutions.? The second was in the same vein, but at greater length.

Fly Away From Helicopter Money

Last set of charlatans, the ones at the Fed.? Using money finance has always led to bad results.? Much as I think the Fed talks about monetary policy lags, and then acts like they don’t believe that, that is a small error compared to helicopter money.? (This one got me a 15-minute interview on an English-speaking financial radio in Seoul, Korea.)

A World Deep in Debt?

Picturing Pensions

Two real long-term problems that our world will have to face.? High private and governmental debt around the world, which may lead to some weak nations defaulting on dollar-denominated debt.? “Weak parts of the Eurozone and Japan are possibilities, along with a number of emerging markets.”? Pensions are another issue, and most of the news globally is depressing.? So much for not having children and not saving.

Financial Market Liquidity Isn?t That Important for the Economy as a Whole

If All Investments Were Private

Though I always consider illiquidity to be a risk factor, for the economy as a whole, liquidity is overrated.? Public policy should not be geared to making all/more assets tradable.? Things that are genuinely illiquid should remain so, lest you have financial crises like the recent housing bubble, where too much money was lent against illiquid assets.

Actual asset performance is more important than liquidity. Analyze your investment selections carefully.

Estimating Future Stock Returns

Estimating Future Stock Returns, Follow-up

The first two articles on The Economic Philosopher’s stock valuation model that I have written.? As an update, the market is currently priced for a 3.8%/year return over the next ten years, not adjusted for inflation.? This is the best model available on future returns, bar none.

Goes Down Double-Speed (Update 3)

On the current bull market, and how it is the second longest on record.? And still is.

Think Half of a Cycle Ahead

On the virtue of realizing that present conditions won’t continue indefinitely, and thinking about when and how the turn will come.

Big Returns, Narrow Doors

“My advice to you tonight is simple. ?Be skeptical of complex approaches that worked well in the past and are portrayed as new ideas for making money in the markets. ?These ideas quickly outgrow the carrying capacity of the markets, and choke on their own success.”

The Rules, Part LXIV

The Rules, Part LXIV

Photo Credit: Steve Rotman || Markets are not magic; government economic stimulus is useless with debt so high

Weird begets weird

I said in an earlier piece on this topic:

I use [the phrase] during periods in the markets where normal relationships seem to hold no longer. It is usually a sign that something greater is happening that is ill-understood. ?In the financial crisis, what was not understood was that multiple areas of the financial economy were simultaneously overleveraged.

So what’s weird now?

  • Most major government running deficits, and racking up huge debts, adding to overall liability promises from entitlements.
  • Most central banks creating credit in a closed loop that benefits the governments, but few others directly.
  • Banks mostly in decent shape, but nonfinancial corporations borrowing too much.
  • Students and middle-to-lower classes borrowing too much (autos, credit cards)
  • Interest rates and goods and services price inflation stay low in the face of this.
  • Low volatility (until now)
  • Much speculative activity in cryptocurrencies (large percentage on a low base) and risk assets like stocks?(smaller percentage on a big base)
  • Low credit spreads

No one should be surprised by the current market action.? It wasn’t an “if,” but a “when.”? I’m not saying that this is going to spiral out of control, but everyone should understand that?The Little Market that Could?was a weird situation.? Markets are not supposed to go up so steadily, which means something weird was fueling the move.

Lack of volatility gives way to a surfeit of volatility eventually.? It’s like macroeconomic volatility “calmed” by loose monetary and fiscal policy.? It allows people to take too many bad chances, bid up assets, build up leverage, and then “BAM!” — possibility of debt deflation because there is not enough cash flow to service the incurred debts.

Now, we’re not back in 2007-9.? This is different, and likely to be more mild.? The banks are in decent shape.? The dominoes are NOT set up for a major disaster.? Risky asset prices are too high, yes.? There is significant speculation in areas?Where Money Goes to Die.? So long as the banking/debt complex is not threatened, the worst you get is something like the deflation of the dot-com bubble, and at present, I don’t see what it threatened by that aside from cryptocurrencies and the short volatility trade.? Growth stocks may get whacked — they certainly deserve it from a valuation standpoint, but that would merely be a normal bear market, not a cousin of the Great Depression, like 2007-9.

Could this be “the pause that refreshes?”? Yes, after enough pain is delivered to the weak hands that have been chasing the market in search of easy profits quickly.? The lure of free money brings out the worst in many.

You have to wonder when margin debt is high — short-term investors chasing the market, and Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman, and other valuation-sensitive investors with long horizons sitting on piles of cash.? That’s the grand asset-liability mismatch.? Long-term investors sitting on cash, and short-term investors fully invested if not leveraged… a recipe for trouble.? Have you considered these concepts:

  • Preservation of capital
  • Dry powder
  • Not finding opportunities
  • Momentum gives way to negative arbitrages.
  • Greater fool theory — “hey, who has slack capital to buy what I own if I need liquidity?”

Going back to where money goes to die, from the less mentioned portion on the short volatility trade:

Again, this is one where people are very used to selling every spike in volatility. ?It has been a winning strategy so far. ?Remember that when enough people do that, the system changes, and it means in a real crisis, volatility will go higher than ever before, and stay higher longer. ?The markets abhor free riders, and disasters tend to occur in such a way that the most dumb money gets gored.

Again, when the big volatility spike hits, remember, I warned you. ?Also, for those playing long on volatility and buying protection on credit default ? this has been a long credit cycle, and may go longer. ?Do you have enough wherewithal to survive a longer bull phase?

To all, I wish you well in investing. ?Just remember that new asset classes that have never been through a ?failure cycle? tend to produce the greatest amounts of panic when they finally fail. ?And, all asset classes eventually go through failure.

So as volatility has spiked, perhaps the free money has proven to be the bait of a mousetrap.? Do you have the flexibility to buy in at better levels?? Should you even touch it if it is like a knockout option?

There are no free lunches.? Get used to that idea.? If a trade looks riskless, beware, the risk may only be building up, and not be nonexistent.

Thus when markets are “weird” and too bullish or bearish, look for the reasons that may be unduly sustaining the situation.? Where is debt building up?? Are there unusual derivative positions building up?? What sort of parties are chasing prices?? Who is resisting the trend?

And, when markets are falling hard, remember that they go down double-speed.? If it’s a lot faster than that, the market is more likely to bounce.? (That might be the case now.)? Slower, and it might keep going.? Fast moves tend to mean-revert, slow moves tend to persist.? Real bear markets have duration and humiliate, making weak holders conclude that will never touch stocks again.

And once they have sold, the panic will end, and growth will begin again when everyone is scared.

That’s the perversity of markets.? They are far more volatile than the economy as a whole, and in the end don’t deliver any more than the economy as a whole, but sucker people into thinking the markets are magical money machines, until what is weird (too good) becomes weird (too bad).

Don’t let this situation be “too bad” for you.? If you are looking at the current situation, and think that you have too much in risk assets for the long-term, sell some down.? Preserving capital is not imprudent, even if the market bounces.

In that vein, my final point is this: size your position in risk assets to the level where you can live with it under bad conditions, and be happy with it under good conditions.? Then when markets get weird, you can smile and bear it.? The most important thing is to stay in the game, not giving in to panic or greed when things get “weird.”

Short-Term Rational, but Intermediate-Term Irrational

Short-Term Rational, but Intermediate-Term Irrational

Don’t look at the left side of the chart on an empty stomach

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This will be a short post.? At present the expected 10-year rate of total return on the S&P 500 is around 4.05%/year.? We’re at the 94th percentile now.? The ovals on the graph above are 68% and 95% confidence intervals on what the actual return might be.? Truly, they should be two vertical lines, but this makes it easier to see.? One standard deviation is roughly equal to two percent.

But, at the left hand side of the graph, things get decidedly non-normal.? After the model gets to 2.5% projected returns, presently around 3100 on the S&P 500, returns in the past have been messy.? Of course, those were the periods from 1998-2000 to 2008-2010.? But aside from one stray period starting in 1968, that is the only time we have gotten to valuations like this.

My last piece hinted at this, but I want to make this a little plainer.? For sound effects while reading this, you could get your children or grandchildren to murmur behind you “We know it can’t. We know it can’t.” while you consider whether the market can deliver total returns of 7%/year over the next 10 years.

There are few if any things that remain permanently valid insights of finance.? Anything, even good strategies, can be overdone.? Even stable companies can be overlevered, until they are no longer stable.

In this case, it is buying the dips, buying a value-weighted cross section of the market, and putting your asset allocation on autopilot.? Set it and forget it.? Add in companies always using spare capital to buy back shares, and maxing out debts to fit the liberal edge of your preferred rating profile.

These have been good ideas for the past, but are likely to bite in the future.? Value is undervalued, safety is undervalued, and the US is overvalued.? A happy quiet momentum has brought us here, and for the most part it has been calm, not wild.? Individually prudent actions that have paid off in the past are likely to prove imprudent within three years, particularly if the S&P 500 rises 10-15% more in the next year.

People have bought into the idea that market timing never matters.? I agree with the idea that it usually doesn’t matter, and that it is usually is a fool’s game to time the market.? That changes when the 10-year forward forecast of market returns gets low, say, around 3%/year.

Remember, the market goes down double-speed.? Just because the 10-year returns don’t lose much, doesn’t mean that there might not be better opportunities 3-5 years out, when the market might offer returns of 6%/year or higher.

Also, remember that my data set begins in 1945.? I wish I had the values for the 1920s, because I expect they would be even further to the left, off the current graph, and well below the bottom of it.

This isn’t the most nuts that things can be.? In fact, it is very peaceful and steady — the cumulative effect of many rational decisions based off of what would have worked best in the past, in the short-run.

As a result, I am looking 10 years into the future, and slowly scaling back my risks as a result.? If the market moves higher, that will pick up speed.

At the Cato Institute?s 34th Annual Monetary Conference (Panel 3)

At the Cato Institute?s 34th Annual Monetary Conference (Panel 3)

Photo Credit: Frank N. Foode
Photo Credit: Frank N. Foode

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Moderator: Judy Shelton -?Co-Director, Sound Money Project, Atlas Network

Gerald P. O?Driscoll Jr.?-?Senior Fellow, Cato Institute

Kevin Dowd -?Professor of Finance and Economics, Durham University

Tyler Goodspeed -?Junior Fellow in Economics, University of Oxford

==========================

O’Driscoll — What CBs can’t do? They aren’t prescient. ?Policy discretion — results aren’t measured, and politicians blame the Fed when things go wrong, and take credit when things go right.

Politicians and Central bankers engage in “symbiotic rent-seeking.”

Fed reform would involve reducing the Fed’s scope, improving its performance and enhance?its accountability.

Fed should let assets roll off the balance sheet and even sell off securities on the long.

Eliminate Fed 13.3 powers to eliminate lender of last resort powers. ?Can’t implement a policy rule without that.

Wants to keep the regional Fed banks.

Dowd: “Money often costs too much” Ralph Waldo Emerson

John Law and money printing. ?Sir Robert Giffen: “Governments, when they meddle with money, are so apt to make blunders.”

Allowing people to use their money freely is often viewed with scepticism.

ZIRP is not stimulative. ?It is a trap.

QE/LSAP

QE — greatest Wall Street bailout of all time.

Argues that ZIRP causes productivity to drop. ?Real Private Non-residential investment has only now come back.

Can’t calibrate hedges because markets are too stable. ?In a crisis, that would shift.

QE has not worked in Japan. ?Policy is increasingly delusional.

NIRP [negative rates] — doesn’t make sense. ?If it makes your brain hurt you are sane.

Must abolish cash to do NIRP. ?The most vulnerable people depend on cash. ?Loss of cash is a loss of civil liberty. ?Bad guys use every amenity, including?cash.

Helicopter money is a form of redistribution, which should belong to Congress. ?End of sound money. Hyperinflation.

The most costly money is the money that is free.

Goodspeed: We all ought to read more financial history: Those sympathetic to the elimination of large institutions today will learn. ?Aids imagination. ?Gives you kind of a “control group” to work with.

Prior to 1863, the US states had a wide number of approaches. ?There was public, mutual, and no insurance for deposits. ?He looks at contiguous counties in different states with different insurance regimes.

They had no effect on bank failure initially. ?Over the long run, though, the more double liability resulted in less defaults. Public insurance — ?More exposure to real estate and interbank lending, and other types of opaque lending. ?Double liability took less risk prior to crises, but took more risk after crises, adding to system stability.

Seems to be that growth was the same across the counties with public vs double liability.

Scottish banks with unlimited liability. ?During a balance of payments crisis — uses an extension option against British speculators.

Upshot: Socializing losses does not work well in the long-term.

Q&A

1) Benefit of QE?

Banking system bailout, nothing else

2) Ed Teryakin — what should Congress do to change the mandate of the central bank to get a better outcome?

O’Driscoll — long weak recovery; U-3 unemployment low?because of people who have left the labor force

3) Walker Todd — lend in a panic only on collateral of recognizable value for lender of last resort powers?

O’Driscoll: Texas S&L crisis — collateral rules get fuddled.

4) Real purpose of stress tests?

To calm the public. ?The tests are bad, particularly in Europe.

5) John Flanders, Central Methodist University — Canadian experience many fewer defaults. ?Weren’t US banks over-regulated?

Unit banks less stable. ?Law of small numbers in Canada. ?But are fewer bank failures a good thing?

6) How did we end up with a central bank? ?George and Martha Washington owned shares in the Bank of England.

Goodspeed: US banking has always had more failures. MD & VA tobacco planters defaulting on Scottish banks in 1772.

Dueling notions on the need for central banks with the Founding Fathers. ?George Selgin tossed in a comment.

7) CPA — aren’t buybacks a waste of funds. ?Bernanke said there would be a wealth effect, and then spending will rise. ?Spending did not rise. ?Wealth effect is not big.

8 ) Isn’t it a bad thing that there were no Canadian bank failures — not enough risk taking? ?Morphed into a question on risk-based capital:

O’Driscoll: RBC is a disaster.

Goodspeed: Canada was not starved of capital. ?Banks regulations can lead to their own set of problems. (DM: RBC creates its own weaknesses, but the one covering insurance in the US is pretty good.)

 

The Rules, Part LX

The Rules, Part LX

Rapid upward moves in volatility almost always presage a bounce rally.

Again, I am scraping the bottom of the barrel, but this is a common aspect of markets. ?When things get tough, scaredy-cats buy put options. ?That pushes up option implied volatilities. ?The same doesn’t happen when prices are rising, because that happens slower. ?Prices fall twice as fast as they rise in the stock market.

Emotions play a big role with options, and many do not use them rationally. ?Rather than using them when the market is rising in order to hedge, more commonly they hedge after the market has fallen.

As implied volatility rises, the ability to make money from hedging falls, as the cost of insurance goes up. ?As a result, hedging peters out, and the market will be receptive to positive news, given that most who want to hedge have hedged. ?Their pseudo-selling is over, and a bounce rally will happen.

Volatility tends to mean-revert, and as the reversion from high levels of volatility happens, the value of stocks rise. ?People buy equities as fears dissipate.

Volatility, both actual and implied, are tools to have in your arsenal to help you understand when markets might be overvalued (low volatility) or undervalued (very high volatility). ?Use this knowledge to guide your portfolio positioning. ?At present, it is more reliable then many other measures of the market.

Next time, I end this series. ?Till then.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Rest of the World

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  • Morgan Stanley Leads Japan M&A for 1st Time Since 1997 http://t.co/QnzC26Wj7a Global expertise is @ a premium w/many deals across borders $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • Can Phone-Charging Stove Cut Wood Pollution and Save Lives? http://t.co/XY66nqo3xO Cook food w/less fuel & pollution; make electricity $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • Carney?s Housing Alarm Bell Nudges BOE Toward Stimulus Exit http://t.co/001OJ0Nj4o But will he really do it? Economic growth isn’t fast $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • In Thailand, It’s Crippling D?j? vu All Over Again http://t.co/wKMJIarSij Democracy does not fit the cultures of some nations well $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • OPEC Rift Emerging Over Iraq Output, Possible Return of Iran http://t.co/o329Mykhxa OPEC? Forgot about them. Iraq oil production grows $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Aussie Set for Longest Drop Since 1997 After Takeover Rejected http://t.co/H2NqgiyDbP A currency is less valuable when use is restricted $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Rice Bond Flop Adds to Yingluck Protest Misfortune http://t.co/3IFN70XXof Feels a little like 1997, could b messy in emerging markets $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • How Poland Became Europe’s Most Dynamic Economy http://t.co/mZCypvUwd8 Great, but just watch the outsized entitlement liabilities $$ $SPY Nov 29, 2013
  • Paul Krugman’s Blind Spot http://t.co/CsdsuCEMLb The countries that did not increase their deficits have done better than those that did $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Zeppelins Seen Hauling Caterpillars to Mine Siberia http://t.co/u6gK2dcwMv Fascinating way 2 move heavy machines 2 mines in Siberia $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Rich Russians Sparring With Putin Over $48B Olympics Bet http://t.co/oZYB1yjLc7 Cloudy view of who pays 4 & benefits from building Sochi $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Pope Urges Countries Regulate Markets in Poverty Battle http://t.co/3IBNhhdqaV Jorge Bergoglio doesn’t understand the Bible; thus he errs $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • In Iran, Obama Achieves 50% of His Goals http://t.co/sOrvEn0zPK If everyone is unhappy, it might be a good deal; looks like Iran is happy $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • Europe’s Easy-Money Policy Snubs German Savers http://t.co/4Dx9vNk2nd Germans should take vacations in Portugal, Italy, Greece, & Spain $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • Islamists Settle on Turkey-Syria Border as War Blurs Lines http://t.co/cytuvPcIg8 Multiple player wars r inherently unstable & risky $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • Extremist Tide Poses Growing Threat to Europe, Katainen Says http://t.co/oZpeYEvTpi Euro puts nations in a straitjacket, fuels extremists $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • All for One: Xi Jinping and China’s New Deal http://t.co/ZReOpUO5ro Argues that the Chinese govt continues to centralize, not so sure $$ Nov 24, 2013
  • The Weekend Interview with Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal http://t.co/pMd7xoDxjr Policies that favor Israel & Saudi Arabia r the same $$ Nov 24, 2013

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Financial Sector

 

  • San Jose Pension Crush Spurs Bid to Ease California Pacts http://t.co/rLYJrZE3OT State laws will change 2allow cuts 2 nonaccrued benefits $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • Foreclosed Sales at US Auctions Double as Prices Gain http://t.co/AG75jENQ14 This is a good sign; B careful 2get a clean title if buying $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Wall Street Props CLO Boom as Rules Lift Costs http://t.co/BZPdxJePL2 Get them out the door b4 new regulations require risk retention $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Banks may pay $105B more to settle mortgage tab http://t.co/BhJdAHIwpR Did the banks even *make* $150B from 2005-8? Who gets the fine $$ ? Nov 27, 2013
  • Could banks charge fees for deposits? http://t.co/six4Q4UG8U Yes they could if the Fed tries to loosen policy further $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • How Regulators Will Toughen the Volcker Rule http://t.co/j5N620NF7P This is an impossible task & will result in lawsuits galore $$ #fail Nov 27, 2013
  • Speed Traders Meet Nightmare on Elm Street With Nanex http://t.co/k6ZUSSIprs Slanted article downplays Nanex’s insights on the markets $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • London Gold Fix Calls Draw Scrutiny Amid Heavy Trading http://t.co/cVB0xib8bZ Very difficult to eliminate all unfairness in benchmarks $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Wall Street May Take Derivatives Regulator to Court http://t.co/R9KrxGlPn6 Arbitrariness in issuing regulations leads 2 pushback $$ $SPY Nov 25, 2013
  • Tackling The Fed: Jeb Hensarling’s Promise At Cato http://t.co/z2JqO2fAfQ After 100 yrs, it is time to review our $$ state of affairs Nov 25, 2013
  • Nonprofit that flipped homes to investors faces scrutiny http://t.co/tIBCJ9hfYC Not necessarily illegal, perhaps unethical, sneaky $$ Nov 25, 2013

 

Companies? & Industries

 

  • Repsol Deal With Argentina Was Propelled by Pemex http://t.co/trdr6hL6Oe Pemex mediates/wins, $REP loses, gets $$, $YPF free, Argent wins Nov 29, 2013
  • How Alyssa Milano Created a Fan-Gear Fashion Empire for Women http://t.co/XhCMON9WC8 Create clothes women like in team colors, not pink $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Judge Approves ResCap Settlement W/Housing Regulator http://t.co/5sVjJyEIkw Unsec debt recovers 35%; I remember when they were hot stuff $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Maker of Nutella and Tic Tacs Confident in Family Hands http://t.co/SmFZnx3YUT Profitable organic growth &staying private. Smart strategy $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Clean Wind Farms Catch Up to Dirty Big Oil http://t.co/flu7fSKHXb The comments section is replete w/replies on the many ways birds die $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Kobe Bryant’s $50M Shows Salary Cap Is Ruining NBA http://t.co/LPGUIX4vH2 Easiest way 2ruin a professional sports team is pay star 2much $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • For-Profit Colleges Face Consumer Bureau Probe on Lending Roles http://t.co/6EwvbpIYKf Student debt is a lousy deal avoid it if u can $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • Western Digital unwraps hybrid-data-storage system http://t.co/yiz1SR1HE1 Best of both worlds @ reasonable cost SSD&HDD $$ FD: + $WDC Nov 25, 2013
  • Monsanto vs. Mutant Crop Developers in Global Seed Market http://t.co/rYzs7109QS There r multiple ways of creating new strains, y fight? $$ Nov 24, 2013

 

Politics & Policy

 

  • Obama?s call to close Vatican embassy is ‘slap in the face’ to Roman Catholics http://t.co/BcN3f8za2s True enough, but I don’t c the need $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Stay Home, America http://t.co/r11xLhn31Y Commentary on trying to turn Thanksgiving into a shopping day & what it costs us as a culture $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • What a Higher Minimum Wage Does for Workers and the Economy http://t.co/zawtVXr35p Democracy doomed if people vote 4 $$ from Treasury->them Nov 27, 2013
  • Should We Bail Out Cities? http://t.co/k64XxNAiR5 Answer: no, we shouldn’t. Most bailout r in areas we knew were high risk already $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Not so sure: Democrats Give Up 2014 With the Filibuster http://t.co/AV5HU94NLH It’s a long way to the 2014 & 2016 elections $$ $SPY $TLT Nov 25, 2013
  • Rebirth Eludes Baltimore as Camden Reality Lags Promises http://t.co/e8NKriEsWV Professional sports arenas r economic idol 4 destruction $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • The Senate Goes Nuclear, Fallout to Come http://t.co/GBifaO09X8 A discourse on protecting the rights of the minority, a la the Founders $$ Nov 24, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Warren Buffett and Time-Horizon Arbitrage http://t.co/92rVk5rbYF Buffett as a quality GARP manager; challenge is finding durable moats $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Why Are Takeover Prices Plummeting? http://t.co/23tjJCDIkl Interesting 2c a lack of fervor among acquirers during high valuations $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Madness & Sanity http://t.co/4HJTIUOLi8 It is flattering to be quoted at such great length; Good thing that I do not enforce copyright $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Stock Market Trading: The 20 Rules Of Engagement http://t.co/Hnm2anKYVx Useful rules 4short-term traders from the estimable Todd Harrison $$ Nov 27, 2013

 

PPACA / Obamacare

 

  • Hit-and-Miss Obamacare Site Still Frustrating at Deadline http://t.co/Urchj3yyQc It could never have been fully fixed by 11/30 $$ $TLT $SPY Nov 29, 2013
  • A Fight Over Contraception Won’t Help Obamacare http://t.co/Wv0iQ10e2c Tie PPACA 2 abortion & the fight is unlikely 2 ever end $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Even Subsidized Obamacare Plans Haven’t Found Takers Yet http://t.co/ERjKs9etHm Particularly among the young & healthy it doesn’t help $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Is Obamacare Challenging Enough for Obama? http://t.co/8ICoSBbtT1 Astounding to hear an ideologue like Margaret Carlson criticize Obama $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Manias, Panics and ObamaCare Crashes http://t.co/2xklhLaW8p PPACA was fatally flawed, the work of ideologues who don’t get healthcare $$ Nov 24, 2013

Other

 

  • Startup Scrambles to Replace the Egg http://t.co/h2RU6UXGuY Intriguing idea 2try 2replace eggs w/ingredients commonly fed 2 chickens $$ $TSN Nov 25, 2013
  • When Marketing Is Strategy http://t.co/aiUTS3C3O5 Adapt your products & services 2 meet needs of consumers 4 convenience & effectiveness $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • Magnus Carlsen’s Win in Chess Championship Shows Powerful Role of Computers http://t.co/pyG2He9iz9 Computers improve the abilities of men $$ Nov 24, 2013
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Companies & Industries

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  • Ackman Makes Big Bet on Fannie, Freddie http://t.co/PdkKSwbUUq Depends on whether the government will sell it off cheaply if at all $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • Maersk CEO Says Balancing Supply of Ships to Demand Is Years Off http://t.co/OVUJsS0gpO Will take 2+ years 4 the shipping mkt 2 normalize $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • GE To Exit Retail Lending, Refocus on Industrial Businesses http://t.co/krR5qVddsY I recommended $GE do that 8 years ago @ RealMoney. $$ Nov 15, 2013
  • Freddie Taps Reinsurer to Offset Loan Risks http://t.co/aeHzuaIwWV Would b a little skeptical of $ACGL ; financial reinsurance is risky $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • An iPhone Tester Caught in Apple’s Supply Chain http://t.co/Skt16fbqbo Very difficult to assure fair dealing w/high demand 4 labor $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Amazon, Postal Service to Start Sunday Package Deliveries http://t.co/TMHg1BIrdP USPS lives at the pleasure of Amazon $$ Nov 12, 2013

?

Rest of the World

 

  • They’ll Pay You to Live in Switzerland! http://t.co/nAhFS0MOO2 Minimum income plan may replace other safety nets, sounds like a disaster $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • Spain Free-for-All Pitting Apollo Against Blackstone http://t.co/8ggvCGBNv3 Global demand 4 vacations in Spain support lodging prices $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • China Leadership Pledges Expansion of Economic Freedoms http://t.co/yJhlS8bKyl More kids, more freedom w/real estate, SOEs get taxed more $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • Japan’s Lenders Roiled by Credit for Criminals http://t.co/KadKx16r6I Many Japanese banks lend to the Yakuza, embarrassing them & govt $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • Secret Israel Housing Boom Defies Settlement Discord http://t.co/PGfpjFKRsP Settlements keep growing w/tacit assistance of Israeli govt $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • Terrifying Charts For Saudi Arabia http://t.co/jbVyUlDfHQ Fascinating charts showing possibility of falling oil revenue 4 Saudi Arabia $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • CIA warily watches for threats to US now that 87 nations possess drones http://t.co/Dew0nwV1xx drones from Israel & China compete vs US $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Banks in Sweden Told to Reduce Market Reliance for Mortgages http://t.co/Lecx4QO08V Not sure that basing off of kronor deposits is best $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Gold Vault Opens in China as Bullion Goes From West to East http://t.co/BVhFqCNSrG If you didn’t trust fiat currencies u would buy gold 2 $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Bloomberg Is Said 2Curb Articles That Might Anger China http://t.co/eP0LbI1rHm @Bloomberg hides articles critical of China from China $$ Nov 12, 2013

 

Obamacare

?

  • Obamacare Is Whatever Obama Says It Is http://t.co/5vVzcjcFpv Other presidents would be impeached for taking the law into their own hands $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • Obamacare’s Creative, Or Illegal, Rule-Making http://t.co/QgUi9mG0gw Obama was critical of Bush’s signing statements & this is worse $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • Sebelius Drops New Bombshell: Employer Plans Will Also Drop Workers From Coverage http://t.co/sDQxErpTiw “Substandard” plans of employers $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • ObamaCare Questions Nobody Asked http://t.co/GXw5PmNxEy Laws must fit a culture; Americans don’t have a high degree of “social trust” $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • Hope Is All Obamacare Has Left http://t.co/M5MzuvG1Od Tactical retreat 4a time comes to mind, but are they humble enough to consider it? $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Rieder: An empty pledge comes back to haunt Obama http://t.co/TG1LjSM7wm Obama promised people they could keep their insurance & doctor $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • The Obamacare Debacle Should Have Obama And Biden Seriously Considering Resignation. http://t.co/eqoNgu841Z Nice thought, but not likely $$ Nov 12, 2013

?

?

Central Banking

 

  • Bank Regulation Dominates Yellen Confirmation Hearing http://t.co/wzXnBemjwI Given all of the regulatory failures of the Fed this is fair $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • Yellen Rejoins QE Debate as Hearing Gives Critics Forum http://t.co/OJgjwPqfxS Pursuing policies that have never worked as if reasonable $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • Central Banks Risk Asset Bubbles in Battle With Deflation http://t.co/sseHM2iFPU Imbalances r growing. Which way will policymakers err? $$ Nov 13, 2013
  • White House Takes Lessons From Bernanke Close Call http://t.co/d7AOphMltK Works 2manage approval process 4 Yellen, given unpopular policy $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Race to Bottom Resumes as Central Bankers Ease Anew: http://t.co/CEE1QS13kL Everybody aims 4advantage; as a result no one gets advantage $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Yellen’s Confirmation Hearing Likely to Stir Up Other Fed Issues http://t.co/eIgTuaYvnI Incompetent Fed gets 2 spread incompetence via DF $$ Nov 12, 2013

 

Financial Markets

 

  • Moody?s Lowers Ratings of Four US Banks After Review http://t.co/3F6tQyzmm9 $GS $MS $JPM $BK will not b bailed out, thus ratings fall $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • Bid Wars Wane in US Housing Markets on Supply Rise http://t.co/1R2LH3qOHq Note: we never eliminated the housing glut; reality returns $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • O?Shaughnessy warns on crisis in long-duration bonds http://t.co/wHmJB6pt9Q Really depends on how strong economic growth is from here $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • Rules Force Banks to Innovate for Survival http://t.co/y3guFfxVdj! Same old thing — Returns on assets r low, so lever up 4 high ROEs $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Pension Terminations May Spike in the Near-Term http://t.co/UjIqJ3ipiD DB pensions will continue 2 shrink; no reason y it should speed up $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Nonbank Mortgage Servicers Rapid Growth Alarms Investors http://t.co/bE7WrXxmk5 Independent mtge servicers grow & have compliance issues $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Group Pushes for Bigger ‘Tick’ Sizes http://t.co/xgkRDHnwfG Very dumb; deregulate tick sizes,& let markets compete 4 business $$ Nov 12, 2013

 

Politics & Policy

 

  • In Blow to Coal, TVA to Shut 8 Units http://t.co/9xOAXI25PE Coal has issues in the short run, will provide power to the world 20+ yrs out $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • A Nuclear Cleanup Effort Leaves Questions Lingering at Scores of Old Sites http://t.co/mm6KzJ47BO Long article; radiological waste maps $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • Bad idea: Firms Get More Wiggle Room on Soured Deals http://t.co/B1sakHXSQc Goodwill should b rigorously tested & written down frequently $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Patty Murray, Democrats’ Budget Leader, Faces a New Test http://t.co/bq430FlJgT A lot of theater here; whatever cuts spending wins $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • No state has all of its employee benefit plans funded at an acceptable earnings rate, as well as rainy day funds, highway, funds, etc $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • State and local government austerity is over http://t.co/4usGgnZDGI Jobs r growing, & so is investment. Only problem: underfunded plans $$ Nov 12, 2013

 

Other

?

  • Woods Makes Caddie?s Beef Jerky Golf-Bag Accessory at $54-Pound http://t.co/5RsL9zX1qu At the Merkel house we r planning on making jerky $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • Silicon Valley Nerds Seek Revenge on NSA Spies With Coding http://t.co/YkemYyJRLu They double the length of encryption keys; Nyaah, NSA! $$ Nov 16, 2013
  • StreetEYE – Tops on Twitter http://t.co/n5X0euq6IP Interesting ranking of those who share on finance on Twitter $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Focusing too narrowly in college could backfire http://t.co/sqAMID8KyG Narrow degrees presume too much about the future; be prepared $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Record Number of Foreign Students Flocking to US http://t.co/PCwwPyeE6o This rescues a wide number of incompetent colleges $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • Strange Doings on the Sun http://t.co/HdgxOoAbz4 We do not understand the Sun well; sunspots r few, & magnetic poles puzzle. $$ #humility Nov 12, 2013
  • Baby Boom in Stronger States Signals US Birth Recovery http://t.co/DPrkEofea8 No surprise, the US has always been more optimistic w/kids $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • I Am The One Who Blogs: TRB Turns Five http://t.co/xQuhAHQB9D @reformedbroker is one of the heroes of financial blogging; I salute him $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • When enough people do power poses, it will lose its impact, and will cease to give confidence. http://t.co/sp0j1bAO8n Nov 11, 2013

Cato Conference / Hard Currencies

  • R. David Ranson #catoonmoney argues that easy monetary policy has not created faster economic growth http://t.co/fUxhAJfL2F $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • PANEL 4: THE CASE FOR A NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION AND FUNDAMENTAL REFORM #catoonmoney Kevin Brady going to speak on Fed Reform $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • Argues that European nations would be better off w/their own national currency. Fiscal union not well defined $$ #catoonmoney Nov 14, 2013
  • Leszek Balcerowicz Former Chairman, National Bank of Poland finishes a rambling, interesting talk on Eurozone & US $$ policy #catoonmoney Nov 14, 2013
  • Cato Monetary policy conf, panel 2 — ALTERNATIVES TO DISCRETIONARY GOVERNMENT FIAT MONEY #catoonmoney Sumner will provide alternatives $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • U.S. Mint?s Silver-Coin Sales Reach Annual Record http://t.co/IBJLw2wICe U can laugh; fascinating 2c so many trying to preserve value $$ Nov 14, 2013
  • Gold is much harder to manipulate; same for any money with real backing. http://t.co/HnXQLaqU2a Nov 12, 2013

?

Comments, Retweets, Replies

  • @Frank_McG I don’t think I mentioned bitcoins, but there are certainly some that trust in them… Nov 14, 2013
  • “Junk science causing people to avoid food that is good for most, and yummy too.” ? David Merkel http://t.co/xQhXrM0hyd $$ Nov 12, 2013
  • RT @SJosephBurns: Learning curves of different professions–> http://t.co/Nuy9CVTYp9 Nov 11, 2013
  • RT @AmbroseEP: Oxygen thinning. Shiller P/E ended week 47pc over-valued. Good blow-off chart from Husmann. http://t.co/XPq6hmzUR6 Nov 11, 2013

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Market Impact

 

  • Keep the Economists off the Trading Desk http://t.co/3E3OoDJLrS As Howard Simons said, “Stocks are not GDP futures.” Ignore the economy $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • ‘Skew’ Measure Points to Excessive Market Optimism http://t.co/sT8aVfJ2MI Calls priced high, puts priced low & we r not so bad u know? $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Bear hunting http://t.co/nvnCpNfl1G Bear shortage has a few wondering who is left to buy from existing stockholders $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Amazing fact #1: Market has been unexpectedly strong since May 1 | Amazing fact #2: Market?s YTD 2013 returns have never been negative $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • 3 ?amazing? facts about the stock market http://t.co/SKog36iBgE Amazing fact #3: The stock market?s Sept and Oct have both been positive $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Wall Street is way too bullish http://t.co/dBNe8oaeho Collapsing time horizons may presage a bearish turn for the risky asset markets $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • BlackRock?s Fink Says There Are ?Bubble-Like Markets Again? http://t.co/cgj8MI5vls “Fed policy is contributing to ‘bubble-like markets.'” $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Five Bad Ways to Pick a Mutual Fund http://t.co/9ZXV7y0lWv Good as far as it goes. Important: don’t chase performance or ratings $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • How Our Brains Betray Us http://t.co/ZFzTZT4t1t We tend 2b 2 optimistic about the future,& not realistic enough about the present $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • JP Morgan’s Subprime Troubles Ran Deep http://t.co/df0Ok7fQG4 The originators r all dead, so they go after one of the last standing $JPM $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Bond-fund charts of the day, rising-rates edition http://t.co/q7DDAectXI Where @felixsalmon finds the speed of rates rising matters a lot $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Six Ways to Ensure Qualified Borrowers Can Get Mortgages http://t.co/S7XBegLn4k Unrealistic article, though the part on servicing is good $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Is Your Pension Courting Catastrophe? http://t.co/0kMj4FdCpO Good summary & resources, but few pensions invest 2much in CAT bonds $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Are CAT Bonds The Answer to Today?s Retirement Planning Woes? 2 Early 2 Tell?More Transparency Needed! http://t.co/M7taq4X2XE Not4retail $$ Oct 28, 2013

 

Companies & Industries

 

  • Phillips 66 to Build Texas Terminal to Export Propane, Butane Overseas http://t.co/XIUbREChpH Exporting nonstandard fuels from fracking $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • PwC Agrees to Purchase Booz to Expand Advisory Services http://t.co/TW21OqwH5Q Conflict of interests: auditing firms 4 which they consult $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Now Amazon Is Just Giving Money Away http://t.co/mdtioUbM4K $AMZN -> great nonprofit that eats businesses continues like Galactus $$ #nomnom Oct 31, 2013
  • Stop Subsidizing Colleges? 100-Year Debt Binge http://t.co/76w7ngChue Colleges r more fragile than 2 last 100 years; don’t lend 2 them $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Dell?s Mitzvah Rescued Buyout as JPMorgan?s Lee Warned of Perils http://t.co/hKyGu1VCnj Da dirt, da whole dirt & nuttin but da dirt $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Who?s Right About Apple?s Cash Pile: Cook or Icahn? http://t.co/ZJNFMpVtXu Simple: Cook. Most of the $$ is overseas & can’t easily return Oct 30, 2013
  • How Mobile Technology is Changing the Way We Dine Out http://t.co/Su0Po5ezxx Social media affects how people choose restaurants $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Why Consol is Diving Into Natural Gas While Others Jump Out http://t.co/m3nIsWFv8a Oil > Natgas > Coal | Simple, huh? $CNX $$ Oct 30, 2013

 

Insurance News

?

  • Harbinger Insurer Switches to Iowa Watchdog From Maryland http://stks.co/hsV7 Decamping 4 a more friendly & sophisticated regulator $$ $HRG Nov 02, 2013
  • Berkshire Hathaway defends asbestos claim-paying record vs stories by Mark Greenblatt of Scripps News http://t.co/lYcEQH13Ea FD: + $BRK.B $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Buffett?s $40B Cash Pile Provides Acquisition Fuel http://t.co/WYZ5AWsBaj Would view largest private companies look4 transitional probs $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Lincoln National Wins $4 Billion Annuity Reinsurance Deal http://t.co/E3v9AwvDb4 I find this dubious, but $WFC is the likely loser $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Crop Insurance Hazards Shown in Lost Pheasants in Grasslands http://t.co/s96GcQn8jw W/Ag doing so well, we need to end the Ins subsidies $$ Oct 30, 2013

?

Other

 

  • No Bones About It: Day of the Dead Is Finding New Life http://t.co/AGzU8olA1b Life is for the living; let the dead bury their own dead $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Little Sign of Housing Bubble in Land Prices http://t.co/P8LyXzvyZu Overinvested for a long time; we shouldn’t subsidize home ownership $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • The 50 Greatest Breakthroughs Since the Wheel http://t.co/Hy0ePPNa9W Ambitious article that explains why innovation benefits us all $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Drones Delivering Pizza? Venture Capitalists Wager on It http://t.co/njvc3uysge Sadly, the pizza was cold when it arrived. $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • If New York Freezes in January Blame Siberian Snow Now http://t.co/7oMGUa8poK These tendencies r weak, like most things on global warming $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Cheaper Laser Sensors for Self-Driving Cars Are on the Way http://t.co/Nx09HA3zEW If sensors r that expensive, driverless cars r far-off $$ Oct 30, 2013

?

NSA / Privacy

 

  • Furious Tech Giants Fight Back Against NSA Surveillance http://t.co/KSNmBfE2v4 Ripple effect from Snowden’s revelations get bigger weekly $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Edward Snowden Has Japan Copying China?s Playbook http://t.co/iZ1sKibSSd Excessive secrecy creates environment for government wrongdoing $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • How anti-NSA backlash could fracture the Internet along national borders http://t.co/gswU55LYiS Democratic nations hate being NSA snooped $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • NSA infiltrates links to Yahoo, Google data centers worldwide, Snowden documents say http://t.co/Sr5YZD4u74 $$ shot: http://t.co/fTFufojKwz Nov 01, 2013
  • Tax delinquents by the thousands have security clearances, GAO finds http://t.co/8VnAziQSVN Easier 2 suborn someone who is in debt $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Obama Unaware as US Spied on World Leaders: Officials http://t.co/DTz36LPrPE The surveillance state takes on a life of its own $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • The NSA?s Rent Is Too High http://t.co/xSGkk8GZvy Even if what they do were legitimate, they cost Americans far too much $$ Oct 30, 2013

 

PPACA / Obamacare

 

  • Health Policies Canceled in Latest Hurdle for Obamacare http://t.co/eT3EkcotYp I’m grandfathered for now, but how long will that last? $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Obamacare?s Biggest Threat Isn?t the Website http://t.co/az9Imf0qBK burdensome complexity subsidy-based plan; failure universal coverage $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • You Can Keep Your Health Plan* http://t.co/Wi5xqZvdrB *Except if it not a health plan that the Obama Administration does not like $$ #lies Oct 31, 2013
  • Obama Tempers Insurance Pledge as Health Fight Rages http://t.co/fpZPH27KML An arrogant man who doesn’t understand economics and lies $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Yes, People Are Losing Their Insurance Under Obamacare http://t.co/8aqWoASQfl Affects some people who buy their health plans on their own $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • The ObamaCare Awakening http://t.co/P01zM98SNZ Americans are losing their coverage by political design. That’s a feature, not a bug $$ #lose Oct 30, 2013
  • Insurers Oppose Obamacare Extension as Danger to Profits http://t.co/nsIz2wSoyT Clever Obama got the insurance companies2carry water4him $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Americans lose coverage, Democrats say Obama too rosy about health care law http://t.co/jGg1lWtJA7 My plan was canceled; i had no choice $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • How Jon Stewart became President Obama?s biggest problem http://t.co/YAJ8fOnFJZ Lousy efforts from the govt deserve 2b exposed $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Desperately Needed: More Geriatricians http://t.co/THkwfgtFqn We cannot create more Geriatricians via fiat in the sort run $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • The First Cracks http://t.co/UAnrYjlzXQ Some Democrats begin to question PPACA/Obamacare $$ Oct 30, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Will Toilet Rules Prove EU’s Waterloo? http://t.co/0jLUpeIA1a Standardizing toilet specifications across different cultures is futile $$ Nov 02, 2013
  • Japan Stocks Sink to Monthly Worst in Developed Markets http://t.co/XHJewfR5NZ Really difficult 2c how Japan normalizes econ policy $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Ignore Greek Elections: Stocks Might Be the Best Buy in over 60 Years http://t.co/7tKWQ365RW Good call from @valuewalk timely/contrarian $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Greek Recovery Makes Stocks World?s Best as Paulson Buys http://t.co/m25XYjWQsE Buy on the rumor, sell on the news, stick a fork in it $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Eike Batista’s Empire Soared, Then Melted Into Bankruptcy http://t.co/3lh9catSFf At best, a huckster. At worst, a robber. A cheater $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Japan Salaries Extend Fall as Abe Urges Companies 2 Raise Wages http://t.co/jOprQhpTsk Abe has quite an imagination; markets will dictate $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • OGX Bankruptcy Filing Caps Batista?s $30 Billion Demise http://t.co/MkIdlrCKNv He seemed incredible to me at first, he is credible now $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Political Gridlock, Beijing Style http://t.co/xCrcTd2htZ Entrenched economic interests fight Party leadership seeking economic reform $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Rebuilding Reserves Means U-Turn on Treasuries http://t.co/5EH3t378gb The $$ is not the only game in town, better liquidity than others $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • India Breast Cancer Surge Hinders Private Exams for Women http://t.co/Fumyl2WHTO Big problem, few resources; makes me feel sorry for them $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Study Sheds Light on the Dark Side of China’s Urbanization http://t.co/GZFyxNKEHn Communism alienates from the means of production $$ #China Oct 30, 2013
  • The Lust Beneath Japan’s Sex Drought? http://t.co/APyIFrlth7 Japan’s sex culture is perverse, & their society shrinks as a result $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • The China Americans Don’t See http://t.co/E8FwXk1H6W China is weaker than it looks b/c it can’t handle dissent against the Party $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers http://t.co/9LiFTr8BED Every dog has its day, & this bond mgr rates a healthy “arf” $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Man Making Ireland Tax Avoidance Hub Proves Local Hero http://t.co/Iy2CVenb3f Controversial fellow who is not universally admired $$ Oct 30, 2013

 

Monetary Policy

 

  • Fed?s Bubble Alarm Stuck on Snooze http://t.co/Wwx4fARLH4 Not in Fed’s interest 2 go bubble hunting, do bad enough w/inflation & unempmt $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • JP Morgan sees ‘most extreme excess’ of global liquidity ever http://t.co/WurN40hJfP Global QE leads to a surfeit of spendable funds $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Yalies Yellen, Hamada Put Tobin Twist Theory to Work in QE http://t.co/Okj2CGXZfo Op Twist might work at low debt levels, not at high $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Sen. Paul Ties His Fed Bill to Vote on Yellen Nomination http://t.co/5hBSNbsOCg Auditing Fed’s monetary policy decisions is a good idea $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • http://t.co/SrNx6yfP2T Negative interest rates are a way for the government to steal from those that want to keep their risk profile low $$ Oct 28, 2013

?

Politics & Policy

 

  • Prosecutor Pleasantly Surprised to Find There’s a Law Against Fraud http://t.co/nqneLdc6JP Regulators use FIRREA to prosecute finl fraud $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Wife Poisoning Husband?s Lover Tests Weapons Law at High Court http://t.co/0p7Otz5hyD Upheld, would federalize all crimes using chemicals $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Speedy Lunches Urged at SEC as Union Decries Time-Clock Watching http://t.co/RpXErNaSct Never knew SEC workers had a union $$ #huh Nov 01, 2013
  • Policymakers think of investment like magic; just because u invest does not mean everyone will be better off; investment can b a waste $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • 12 Steps toward a Simpler, Pro-Growth Tax Code http://t.co/vQWaVnHUw8 Problem is 2Much deferral of income tax & favoring investment $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Gross Says America?s Privileged 1% Should Pay Higher Taxes http://t.co/c9i5W8i9R2 Real problem is definition of income; 2much deferral $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Counties Made for Horse and Buggy Reject Savings http://t.co/oZshDLJGA6 Ppl value tangible/local govt & don’t begrudge its costs so much $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Budget Deficit in US Narrows to 5-Year Low on Record Revenue http://t.co/9puVuXTbNm But it needs 2 shrink further, it is 2 big $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Obama’s Broken Promise of Better Government Through Technology http://t.co/bWn3F3Pphy Bigness of govt tends to sabotage tech development $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Christie Confounded as Padded Services Send New Jersey Taxes Soaring http://t.co/HTRKeQwchD NJ & corruption? We r supposed 2b surprised? $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • The expected future payments from defined benefit plans is the acid test for municipal finances; that includes social security & medicare $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Pension Pinch Busts City Budgets http://t.co/dUid8OAyuI W/underfunded plans, watch the cash cost curve: what u expect to pay going fwd $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • The Great Pension-Bonus Giveaway Fiasco http://t.co/JWiO616X5e One of the stupidest things in pensions, allowing ppl 2spike benefits $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Evangelical Pastors, Marriott CEO United on Immigration http://t.co/1AG0STUpK2 So long as we do not give them benefits, immigrants r good $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Armed agents seize records of reporter, Washington Times prepares legal action http://t.co/NCJ33BSDjG State & Military abuse reporter $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Software Helps GOP House Majority Leader Isolate ?Astroturf? Emails http://t.co/eDPLGwo1a7 Easy 2c lazy ppl who only have time 2 copy $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Mystery of the ‘Missing’ Global Warming http://t.co/3xkNAd50JA Argues that rising water temperatures r more indicative of the problems $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Colorado Secessionists Struggle as Trend Lifts Democratic Votes http://t.co/BJ9g0CbS6K Secessionists r unrealistic; Congress won’t do it $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Reagan Revolution Misses Tax Fiefdoms Flourishing in US http://t.co/feUsHyGL5B Many local municipalities levy taxes; some do little $$ #IL Oct 30, 2013
  • Obamacare and the Death of Liberalism http://t.co/VLVk1GiJrT Liberalism ends when entitlement promises fail; I say give it 10-15 years $$ Oct 30, 2013

 

Wrong

  • Wrong: Germany Hits Back at US Over Economic Criticism http://t.co/hsoeuvvtLd Neomercantistic Germany’s surpluses will not get paid back $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Wrong: Startup Defeats the Captcha, Wins One for the Machines http://t.co/vVAMnaBdJG Captchas have evolved beyond what has been cracked $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Wrong: The political middle is dying. But it?s not redistricting?s fault. http://t.co/zRplttRK5w We need to force the middle to govern $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • An interview with Alan Greenspan http://t.co/eLgAExy6bQ One constant w/Greenspan is he will not accept blame for the mistakes he made $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Wrong: PPP and Japanese Inflation Expectations (Extremely Wonkish) http://t.co/1G5MpBSnhw As usual, Krugman says inflation won’t hurt $$ Oct 30, 2013

?

Replies, Retweets, & Comments

  • $$ @ritholtz It is a plan if you prefund the deductible, which many medical service providers r requiring w/PPACA plans b4 service granted Oct 31, 2013
  • @viccan1 I don’t believe in conspiracy theories Oct 31, 2013
  • First, this isn’t new. I had professors talking about this in the early 1980s. Second, what may work when… http://t.co/MDJSt6EHaQ Oct 30, 2013
  • I do not want to spend my days, writing out the i’s & j’s. But i’s & j’s are an enigma, when squashed between a double sigma $$ #mathpoetry Oct 30, 2013
  • If you too should choose to skew sir, with the skew-goose, please sir, do sir — w/apologies to Dr. Suess $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • http://t.co/prav9FGJ2h “Now Fink tells us. He was more of a cheerleader for QE at its start.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/MNHiiBTfnp $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • “The difficulty w/prosecution is apportioning blame. Easier to go after the corporation.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/qOh82vAqvU $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • RT @RCdeWinter: This seems truer and truer every day. http://t.co/cKGi6IBdJH Oct 30, 2013
  • RT @TFMkts: Exactly how has QE helped jobs? NFP pattern no looks no different before and after QE http://t.co/Y0IUuDxT3B Oct 30, 2013
  • RT @mccarthyryanj: Amazing hire of @MattGoldstein26 by @DealBook. A really big loss for Reuters Oct 30, 2013
  • “Consider Stocktwits. They created cashtags. To refer to Google, you would type $GOOG. Twitter?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/ZxWfSQjwze $$ Oct 28, 2013

 

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