Asset allocation is tough, because the correlations are not stable.  Here’s an example: in the 90s, at many conferences that I went to, I was told that one of the smartest moves you could make was to invest heavily in every new class of Asset Backed Security [ABS] created, because they all tighten in yield spread terms after issuance, leading to price gains.

I didn’t believe it then, and that was a good thing, because the most exotic of ABS classes got whacked in the financial crisis.  As it was was, I had already seen debacles in Franchise Loan ABS (spit, spit), and Manufactured Housing (post-1997 vintage).  At a conference for Life Insurance, I was a skunk at the party in 2006, as one ignorant presenter suggested that AAA structured assets never went bad.  History already taught us better, and as I tried to say to the then-CEO of Principal Financial as he was exiting the conference, he needed to look at the mezzanine and subordinated structured product in his company.  Free consulting, but but worth more than the consensus.  As far as I can tell, he didn’t listen.  For many reasons the stock price is lower today.

I have many other tales where in fixed income (bonds), everyone “followed the leader,” which worked in the short run, but failed in the long run.  The point is that investor behavior correlates asset classes.  There may be underlying economic differences, such as owning a natural gas producer and utility that uses natural gas, but most of those differences get erased as most investors seek portfolios immune from factors of secular change.

So as new asset or sub-asset classes are introduced, in the short-run they are uncorrelated, and likely rally, because few own them.  But after the rally, many now own it, and the future correlations are high because so many own it.  The correlations ultimately depend on two things: the underlying economics, and investor behavior.  Investor behavior is the dominant aspect of pricing.

I don’t think there is a lot of diversification in most risky asset classes from an economic standpoint.  Does it matter whether a business is public or private?   I think the answer is no.

What that means in the present environment is that there is a gap between business risk, and those that finance business risk.  In other words, there is a difference between investment grade bonds, and risk assets.  That’s the negative correlation in this market.  Do you want diversification?  Buy some ETFs that invest in long high investment grade debt.  You will not get any effective diversification out of buying different classes of risky assets.  Those are already owned by those that compete with you.

Promises to pay from sound entities that can be relied upon in the future behave very differently than risky assets.  In your asset allocation, to the degree that you need real diversification, look at that as the critical distinction.  All other distinctions are secondary at best.

Before I get started this evening, I would like to offer an apology to those that read my recent piece, Simple Retirement Calculator.  I didn’t define all of the terms in the piece, and so here are the definitions:

• DB plan — defined benefit plan, a pension plan that offers a certain benefit, and the cost of funding that benefit varies.
• DC plan — defined contribution plan, a pension plan that allows for a certain level of contributions, and the benefit achievable varies.
• 100% J&S — 100% Joint & Survivor.  In an annuity, its payment is the same regardless of who dies first.  The one surviving does not see any reduction in payments.  In 50% J&S, the one surviving get only half the payment after the first spouse dies, which allows for a higher initial benefit than 100% J&S.
• CR — cash refund.  Some people getting an annuity hate, really hate the idea that the insurance company might make money off of them if they die early.  The cash refund option says that heirs receive the difference between the premium paid and benefits paid.  The cost of this option is a slightly lower benefit.
• Indexed — the annuity benefit rises with inflation, usually the CPI.

Now the table in the article tried to show how much of a person’s salary would be replaced at retirement, given a certain level of saving.  Another way of viewing it would be how many years of income would the accumulated value of savings be relative to their final salary at age 70.  That’s the “Accum Years Ending Pay.”  It’s surprising how few years of ending pay a person accumulates unless they save a lot.

That’s all.  Other questions, forward them my way, but please, ask, don’t demand…

-=-=-==–=-=-=-==-=–=-=-=-==–=-==–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Now there was one more item from my piece Simple Retirement Calculator, the line that read 4% — i.e., pay out 4% of the lump sum annually, an assumption that has fairly broad acceptance for managing a lump sum without annuitizing it.  I myself came to endorse the 4% rule in 2001, after doing a series of analyses using what I thought was a good risk, inflation, and asset allocation model, concluding that the average person had 95% odds of not going bankrupt if they took just 4% of the initial sum invested, adjusted for inflation annually, as a distribution.

The data through 2000 did not allow for a “lost decade” like the one we have recently experienced.  During such a time, marginal returns on capital became very low.  GDP growth slowed, and yields on Treasuries fell.

Going back to Ben Graham, who when bullish never let his asset allocation go above 75% stocks (risky assets), and 25% bonds, and when bearish never let his asset allocation go below 25% stocks (risky assets), and 75% bonds, in the same sense, I use this to offer a new distribution rule for those that don’t annuitize and have to manage a lump sum:

As a percentage of your assets, spend no more than the 10-year Treasury yield annually, plus:

• 0% if the situation is bearish (risk assets are highly priced)
  
• 1% if the situation is neutral
• 2% if the situation is bullish (risk assets have depressed prices)

As for determining risk posture, I would use things like the Q-ratio, Shiller’s CAPE, and the difference between Moody’s Baa and Aaa spreads to be my guide.  At present, by those measures it would leave me halfway between neutral and bearish in the intermediate-term, and so I would be look to distribute only 2.5%/year from endowments as income.

Chintzy?  Today yes, but it respects the idea that depressionary conditions may persist longer than we might otherwise expect.  It also adjusts as inflation rises, to the degree that it gets reflected in Treasury yields, which may be held down by the Fed.  In such a case of the Fed constraining longer Treasury yields, gold prices and the prices of other materials may rise dramatically, because there is no penalty for holding commodities in real terms.

This views the asset markets through the eyes of a conservative but clever bond investor, who realizes that future equity returns are highly correlated with Baa-rated bond yields, and future bond returns are highly correlated with Treasury yields.

But, think of what this formula would have done in the early ’80s, when endowments were constrained, and they took little as income.  This formula would have anticipated the future, and allowed endowments to spend more aggressively, anticipating the recovery.

So let Treasury yields, the Q-ratio, Shiller’s CAPE, and the difference between Moody’s Baa and Aaa spreads be your guide in distribution formulas.  Better to distribute less now, than find yourself or your institution impoverished later.

I consider Tadas Viskanta to be a friend of mine.  I write my eclectic blog, and Tadas occasionally features me on his daily curation of the economics/finance/investment blogosphere.

But it is not friendship that leads me to write the following: this is a really good book.  Why?  Every day, Tadas curates the best thoughts in finance.  He finds them, he motivates them, and links to them.  If I had just one site to visit everyday, it would be his, not mine.  He’s really good at finding the best content in finance.

But it goes a step further than that.  Tadas is a very good blogger in his own right.  It’s not that he comes up with new insights, but he is very good at taking the insights of others and weaves them into a greater insight than the separate thoughts of the individuals.  He finds themes, and he finds disagreements.  Each provides good food for thought.

Now, if Tadas can do this on a daily basis, let’s call him the Chief Synthesizer of the economics/finance/investment blogosphere — then, what happens if he decides to take several steps back, and synthesize the grand themes he has seen in six years of writing his blog.

It’s been a violent period, after all.  Tadas has been blogging from the peak of residential real estate (October 2005), through the tail of the boom (October 2007), to the bust (March 2009), to the present.  He keeps it relevant, and he doesn’t take sides, which allows him to source the best content better.

So as he synthesizes the themes of the last six or seven years, he comes down to really basic ideas for each chapter: Risk, Return, Stocks, Bonds, Portfolio Management, Does Active Investing Work, ETFs, Global Investing, Alternative Assets, Behavioral Finance, Using Media, and the Lost Decade.  He handles them deftly, highlighting differences, but giving a consensus opinion.

The book is modest, in that it does not promise you greater profits if you follow his advice.  It is a realistic book, because most of us know that the basic principles of investing are straightforward, but they get clouded by academics and hucksters.  After you read this book, you may or may not earn more, but you will probably be safer.

Also, the book is an easy read; I glided through it in less than three hours.

Quibbles

The editor could have done more work to make the index complete; I was surprised to find myself mentioned in the book more times than the index noted.

Who would benefit from this book: Most amateur investors would benefit from the book, and many, though not all professionals would benefit from the book’s basic approach. Think of it this way — what if you could explain basic concepts to the uninstructed more clearly? Wouldn’t it help you in your business?  If you want to, you can buy the book here: Abnormal Returns: Winning Strategies from the Frontlines of the Investment Blogosphere.

Full disclosure: I asked the publisher for the book and he sent it to me.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.  This is my main source of blog revenue.  I prefer this to a “tip jar” because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.  Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don’t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don’t, I mention that I scanned the book.  Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.  Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.  Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don’t change.

The main idea is this: if any unpaid third party recommends a stock to you, avoid it.  I am not talking about the media here, but those who are paid to advertise stocks.

My example tonight is Circle Star Energy [CRCL.OB].  This is another company with negative earnings, negative book value, and no revenue.  It has never earned anything.  They started out with nothing; how did they get a market cap of $60-70 million by doing nothing operationally?

I received a flyer in the mail today touting Circle Star.  It featured the research of this entity, which I find weak.

The company originated as a development stage tech company in 2007, Digital Valleys Corp, which never earned a dime.  As drilling for natural gas became hot, it changed its name to Circle Star Energy.

So the company issued equity and assumed debt in exchange for various nonproducing oil & gas interests in Kansas.

After that the company issued convertible debt and equity.  In the process, they acquired more land with rights to drill, but still did not achieve their first dollar of revenue,

They filed with the SEC as if they were a producing energy company, but there were no revenues.  After that they changed their auditor.

The scam here is paying for energy interests in inflated stock.  The sellers dispose of the stock as they can for a profit, maybe they are the ones paying for the worthless research.  I don’t know who is benefiting from the worthless research, because the disclaimers indicate that no one affiliated with the purveyors of the research have an interest in Circle Star.

I don’t care what the assets are, if the company has no revenues.  My experience is that most M&A decisions work against the more motivated of the parties, and that seems of be Circle Star in this case.

This company is an eventual zero, admitting that one of the properties could be a freak that the major oil companies missed, which is not likely.

So again, don’t buy penny stocks.  You will lose.  These are unproductive companies, with management teams that can advertise and deal, bu not produce.

Sorry that I have not been posting much of late.  April is always rough for me.  Taxes play some role in April, because I get a certain amount of my tax data late, but the main reason stems from some charitable boards on which I serve, which meet in/near April.

One of the questions that came to me was how we could educate some of the workers to put away more of their income for retirement, because we don’t have a Defined Benefit plan.  After a little discussion, I said that I could give them good friendly advice.  As most committees go, when someone volunteers to solve a problem, discussion ends.

Now, what I have done is pretty simple, and violates one of my rules — I don’t believe in constant compound interest.  Markets don’t work that way, but for some perverse simplifying reason, retirement planning models do.

What I have done is create a model for retirement income, attempting to express it in terms that someone non-knowledgeable could understand.  You can download the Simple Retirement Calculator (free to download) that I created.

My base case assumes 3% inflation, pay keeps pace with inflation, and the real return on investing is 2% over inflation.  Other assumptions: one works for 45 years from age 25 to 70, and that the options for payout are limited to those that respect spouses and heirs.

So what can one 25 years old expect from saving over a 45 year period of time?

This table expresses what is needed in order to have effective income during retirement.  The average investor can’t control asset returns.

J&S 100% Cash Refund -> Spouse gets 100% after death of annuitant, heirs get a payment annuitants got less than the lump sum value at retirement.  Indexed benefits increase at the rate of the CPI.

With a 2%% real return, it takes a lot of saving to replace current income in retirement, even over 45 years. Note that the real return assumption has the largest impact on the results.

Much as I think DB plans are superior to DC plans for the average person, most companies in the present environment will not subsidize a DB plan to the degree that will allow a person to retire at the same level of purchasing power that they had while employed.

There are many ways that I could improve the results of this model, but the improvements would only be incremental.  The main point of this model indicates that most people do not save enough, if all of their retirement outcomes rely on a defined contributions plan.

Let me know what you think  in the comments below.  Thanks.

Federal Reserve

• Long Term U.S. Credit Boom Chart http://t.co/Ywub8HQH By bailing out short-term credit cycles, the Fed created a big asset bubble $$ Apr 28, 2012
• Quantitative Deleting: The Fed’s $400 Billion ‘Gift’ http://t.co/qavtYcQy Fed’s actions lower cost of funding the US Treasury’s deficit 4now Apr 26, 2012
• Bernanke Takes On Krugman’s Criticism Ignoring Own Advice http://t.co/AZ37nx1W Blind & Blinder $$ Apr 26, 2012
• I think Ben needs one too. Barkeep, make that a double for the the Fed Chairman! $$ RT @soooouuuuurrrrr: @AlephBlog I need a drink. Apr 25, 2012
• That’s all folks — the FOMC show is over!! $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Stocks loving Bernanke, who says he doesn’t act to please markets, but I think that he does, b/c he aims to reduces rates & spreads $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Good Qs on Labor force participation rate and the “bond bubble.” Bernanke obfuscates. Apr 25, 2012
• But the real canard here with the enhanced guidance is that the Fed is poor at forecasting & consistently drags toward current conditions $$ Apr 25, 2012
• When will Fed “transparency” finally be understood to not mean “increased reliability?” Apr 25, 2012
• Interesting that long Treasuries r rallying off of the FOMC second stmt after falling on the first. Not much difference between the 2. $$ Apr 25, 2012
• So, short-term inflation up, LT unch. ST Unemp down, LT unch. ST GDP up, 2013-4 down, LT unch. Tightening 6 mos closer than Jan, FF path up Apr 25, 2012
• Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, PCE average change 2012-14 +0.22%, +.10%, +.09%, longer run 0% (natch) $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, unemployment average change 2012-14 -0.40%, -.21%, -.08%, longer run -.01% $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, GDP average change 2012-14 0.16%, -.08%, -.24%, longer run 0% $$ Apr 25, 2012
• The enhanced guidance of the FOMC is causing more confusion than enhancing understanding $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Overview of FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy; Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming 6 months sooner than Jan12 Apr 25, 2012
• Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End average change 2012-2014, +.015%, +.044%, +.206%, long-run -.015% $$ Apr 25, 2012
• PDF isn’t as friendly as HTML… but that’s probably intentional on the part of the Fed. $$ Apr 25, 2012
• here they are, Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents http://t.co/OzeYZbRa $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Clocks must be slow at the Fed’s website… Apr 25, 2012
• Bond/stock trading bots set loose within the next minute! Apr 25, 2012
• @bondscoop When the FOMC said they would do this, I said “Do they really get what they are setting themselves up for?” Tight coupling. Apr 25, 2012
• @bondscoop Thanks. I’ve got the ancillary data loaded into a spreadsheet to make a quick comparison Apr 25, 2012
• @bondscoop That’s not out yet, right? Apr 25, 2012
• Redacted Version of the April 2012 FOMC Statement http://t.co/wJbPNf5P Shaded up views on housing, inflation & global financial risk. $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Of course, that can only last so long as inflation stays low. Brian Wesbury thinks inflation might be rising http://t.co/YfLFURA3 $$ Apr 24, 2012
• Gundlach Says Fed Won’t Preemptively Raise Rates http://t.co/YTfjQ6Wj W/debt building up 1 thing saving us: interest rate collapsing $$ Apr 24, 2012
• There r historical accidents. The worst that we r dealing w/is Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman with his mistaken views on the Great Depression! Apr 24, 2012
• Awash in money and piles of debt http://t.co/C9hbSWmf Up next: More QE, financial repression, inflation, deficit spending -> stagflation $$ Apr 23, 2012
• $$ Coming soon +1 RT @ReformedBroker: Hilsenrath: After-Hours Sell-Off in Netflix Pushes Fed Governors Toward to Further Easing… $NFLX Apr 23, 2012

China

• Are these companies feeling the Chinese slowdown? http://t.co/bIO0m2vF Machinery companies: Volvo, ABB, $CAT seeing China orders fall $$ Apr 26, 2012
• China Internet Crackdown Silences Another http://t.co/ukw0qzWg More closure of accts found 2b spreading “malicious political rumors.” $$ Apr 26, 2012
• Why Wukan Will Remain a One-off http://t.co/LO3tK7kT Optimistic piece shows when there is enough pressure in China, change can happen $$ Apr 26, 2012
• China Tire Demand Slows as Economy Decelerates, Bridgestone Says http://t.co/yUK3UEye Q is how much things slow for the Chinese economy $$ Apr 26, 2012
• China Escalates Crackdown On Internet Amid Scandal http://t.co/QblN4v3S China wants the internet 4 its economy, but not its politics $$ Apr 26, 2012
• China and Social Media Today vs. Japan bubble in 80s http://t.co/0uxQ40xV Vitaliy Katzenelson shares his reasoning on bubbles $$ Apr 26, 2012
• Why China’s Economic Policies Are a Failure: Andy Xie http://t.co/WZjILv4J Building redundant capacity, cronyism, recipe for disaster $$ Apr 25, 2012
• China Hidden Liabilities for Central Government Seen @ CNY10.94Trl http://t.co/gaqD4suu Opaque governments w/lots of debt can b trouble 2 $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Shide Group Mired in Financing Crisis, Massive Debt http://t.co/Iws3h9Ec Beware complex companies w/lots of debt. Default probs higher $$ Apr 25, 2012
• The Startling Plight of China’s Leftover Ladies http://t.co/WWK3en7R Leftover Chinese men r not good enuf 4 them, even w/sex ratio tilted $$ Apr 24, 2012
• Behind a Chinese City’s Growth, Heavy Debt http://t.co/6eKX3kJp Bo Xilai leaves behind a legacy of debt 4 taxpayers to fund $$ #surprise Apr 23, 2012
• Cities get a sinking feeling: report http://t.co/xQE2d46k If China’s cities aren’t careful about their water tables, they’re sunk $$ Apr 23, 2012
• Can China Reflate the Housing Market? http://t.co/rMtYHX0Y Maybe one more time, but eventually you can’t resuscitate a corpse $$ Apr 23, 2012
• US barnyards help China super-size food production http://t.co/38GkPJ0T China builds protein industry by purchasing live animals from US $$ Apr 23, 2012
• Beijing’s Cracked Consensus http://t.co/1Xep2j6s Don’t assume the fall of Bo Xilai 2b 2big; the CC Party still fights 4 the CC Party $$ Apr 23, 2012
• Farmers Retool to Feed China http://t.co/c0loHf82 Dairy processors make longer-lasting milk powder 2sell2 China. They like almonds 2 $$ Apr 23, 2012
• China May Finally Let Its People Move More Freely http://t.co/fiTQgY5c Of hukou: how China uses household registration 4 control purposes Apr 23, 2012
• The End of China’s One-Child Policy? http://t.co/dK7sUMTq China is getting old before it gets rich. Toxic combo. Watch wages rise. $$ Apr 23, 2012
• The China Rising Leaders Project http://t.co/QuKsr7w2 Very long piece giving very detailed info on next generation of China’s leaders $$ Apr 23, 2012
• China’s Biggest Banks Are Squeezed for Capital http://t.co/uveB69fJ Too much and overaggressive lending strains their balance sheets $$ Apr 24, 2012

Eurozone

• Spain’s current unemployment rate exceeds the US rate during the Great Depression http://t.co/bj86umZp Ugly chart: http://t.co/M6uchbAx $$ Apr 28, 2012
• Why Spain Won’t Reform http://t.co/aIuYUctZ Cultural argument that Madrid historically does not act on problems outside of Madrid $$ Apr 28, 2012
• Rising Italy-to-Spain Yields Keep Banks on Life Support http://t.co/kSdshke5 Many banks simply cannot refinance their maturing debt $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Continuing flow of capital out of Greece http://t.co/psvzWbJk E.g. Greek refineries r unable to obtain credit & rely on Iran for crude $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Spanish property crisis will require Ireland-style banking system recapitalization http://t.co/pDLNF2X7 But who has the money 2do it? $$ Apr 23, 2012
• Bundesbank’s Weidmann Says What No EU Politician Wants to Hear http://t.co/ecLHlLIJ EZone monetary policy loose; fiscal union negligible Apr 23, 2012
• Holland, Not Hollande, Is Europe’s Latest Worry http://t.co/AeQtOIVv If Dutch don’t care 4 austerity, little hope 4 rest of the EZone $$ Apr 23, 2012

Pensions

• How Retirement Benefits May Sink the States http://t.co/oIEsAWhh Companies emigrate 2 states where future tax pressures r lower $$ #bye Apr 28, 2012
• Point Man on Pensions http://t.co/DaXsdkgx PBGC director has experience in restructuring; serves him well negotiating w/dud companies Apr 23, 2012
• Tidbit in last article: FV of DB pension liabs for $SWY > market cap. Actuarial profession goofed on DB plans valuations; ests r liberal $$ Apr 23, 2012
• The Multiheaded Pension Monster http://t.co/oBDNBZYN Multiemployer DB plans- not enough coverage: moral hazard, low PBGC guarantees $$ Apr 23, 2012

Energy

• Chevron sticks with oil. And it pays off. http://t.co/uUlsjbBK FD: + $CVX | That said, buy & hold conventional NG could b good idea now $$ Apr 28, 2012
• Tough Talks Loom at Chesapeake http://t.co/OkMGyu8J Having a CEO who has differing interests from common shareholders is a risk $CHK $$ Apr 28, 2012
• Saudi oil puzzle, continued http://t.co/z76fSKTZ Prices r high, but the Saudis keep stockpiling oil. Why? $$ #idunno #gouging #painfreak Apr 25, 2012

Information Issues

• Saudi Clerics Out-Tweet Liberals Forcing King to Balance http://t.co/A1TcHeSJ Don’t underestimate the influence of Wahhabi Islam. $$ Apr 26, 2012
• Google Stores, Syncs, Edits in the Cloud http://t.co/BrRSauno Walter Mossberg likes $GOOG Drive, thinks $MSFT Skydrive worth a try $$ Apr 25, 2012
• PGP Creator Phil Zimmermann Has a New Venture Called Silent Circle http://t.co/KNJQJ4X4 There’s also a promise of no backdoors 4 anyone $$ Apr 24, 2012
• A New Email Encryption App Your Network Admin Might Not Like http://t.co/7b967z7e Enlocked can encrypt email w/a click, could go viral $$ Apr 24, 2012
• Surveillance State evils http://t.co/BKkmM78J Don’t say anything that you don’t want the government 2 know. Repeal the Patriot Act! $$ Apr 23, 2012
• Astounding. Reprogram it $$ RT @AnnieLowrey: This essay awarded a perfect score by a robo-grader is just delightful. http://t.co/Vc1ORC8T Apr 23, 2012

Company Issues

• Heat Turned Up on Falcone http://t.co/zaiW1Jzu The deal w/the devil comes due for payment; Falcone faces checkmate or LS bankruptcy $$ Apr 28, 2012
• Woes at Law Firm Deepen http://t.co/to4dZbJY Dewey & LeBoeuf’s troubles w/debt & revenue shrinkage. Law does not work well 4 big biz $$ Apr 28, 2012
• Health Insurers to Give Back $1.2 Billion, Goldman Says http://t.co/VX0V9sL9 health overhaul limits <20% premium for expenses & profit $$ Apr 26, 2012
• US Airways Said to Approach AMR Bondholders on Merger http://t.co/iArkC4nq The unsec bondholders r the economic equity of $AAMRQ now $LCC Apr 25, 2012
• Genworth Credibility Eroded as Australia Plan Shelved http://t.co/oyJJ4OCC I’ve almost always ben a sceptic on $GNW. Toxic lines of biz $$ Apr 24, 2012
• Google Unveils Drive Storage Service http://t.co/5R1CAkR0 I use Microsoft Skydrive as a real time backup of my files. $$’ Apr 24, 2012
• MGIC Posts $19.6 Million Loss as Borrowers Struggle on Loans http://t.co/fvoY6cZN Regulators should halt $MTG’s ability 2 write new biz $$ Apr 23, 2012

Rest of the World

• Bubble Down Under? http://t.co/jk4UBFzA “Name a credit bubble built on a commodity bull market built on a bigger Chinese credit bubble?” Apr 26, 2012
• North Korea Poised to Rattle Region With Nuclear Blast http://t.co/MJmALgYi Will believe when it happens; NK always seems 2 get tech wrong Apr 26, 2012
• Swiss housing market inching towards bubble http://t.co/KCbYrs6x Makes me wonder when the Swiss Central Bank will break its Euro peg $$ Apr 24, 2012

Financial Markets

• Conference Notes http://t.co/VF5FIPOg On 4/13, Chicago Booth held its 7th Annual Distressed Investing & Restructuring Conference. $$ Apr 26, 2012
• No surprise when they only put 3.5% down $$ RT @pdacosta: Falling home prices drag new buyers under water http://t.co/bayZVELO Apr 26, 2012
• TARP Profit A Myth, Claims TARP Inspector General Christy Romero http://t.co/iv77kkne Q is related to foreclosure prevention aid & GSEs $$ Apr 26, 2012
• My Sister’s Pension Assets and Agency Problems by Jeremy Grantham http://t.co/ANDMdZae On the value of a non-constrained mandate $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Force Fed by Ben Inker of GMO, last 3 pgs of http://t.co/ANDMdZae Goes through the problems of Asset Allocation with yields so low $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Wall Street Promotes Junk Bonds as Europe Erupts http://t.co/5kIRG7Oi grabbing for yield — it’s the national pastime! $$ Apr 25, 2012
• US 10 Year Bond Yielding 0.5% http://t.co/Zrnj9zdL Japan scenario for the US? The 10Y at 0.5% seems farfetched, but everyone hates bonds $$ Apr 25, 2012
• REITs Spring an Unnerving Surprise http://t.co/qgStDii0 I’ve warned b4 on Private REITs http://t.co/liQr20vq More bad surprises coming $$ Apr 25, 2012
• So, if Egan-Jones did do ABS & governments, that would have been news to me. Surprising to see the SEC going after them $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Credit Rater Egan-Jones Lied, SEC Charges http://t.co/c1ym3feC Firm was known 4 its corporate bond ratings by a contingent claims model $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Misleading ETFs http://t.co/Z8uKHfA7 Buyer beware, read your prospectuses and semi/annual reports; go to the sponsor websites 4 more data $$ Apr 24, 2012
• Who Gets the Equity Risk Premium? http://t.co/gqdPYexG LT holders, brokers, taxes, firms that issue & retire shares at inopportune times $$ Apr 24, 2012
• Commodities don’t provide “diversification” in a crisis http://t.co/7ue9vvjJ Commodities provided diversification when few did it; no more Apr 23, 2012

Catastrophe Bonds

• @merrillmatter If I ran a life insurance portfolio, a closed end fund, an open end HY fund, I would buy cat bonds, u need a balance sheet $$ Apr 24, 2012
• @merrillmatter With all the goofy ETFs issued, surely someone could create $CATB, the Cat bond ETF. Would b very tough 2 source bonds 4 $$ Apr 23, 2012
• @merrillmatter That’s why many high yield funds buy them w/both hands. Also special hedge funds that tear Cat bonds apart 2 get the best $$ Apr 23, 2012

The Perils of Sitting

• On the sitting kills you piece, would like to get a copy. Est’d increase in death rate from 0.76% to 1.06%/yr. Big %, not so big absolute $$ Apr 23, 2012
• Confirmed: He Who Sits the Most Dies the Soonest http://t.co/aif1e8xX I found this article worrisome. I sit > half of my waking hours. $$ Apr 23, 2012

US Economy

• New Mad-Cow Discovery Stirs Fears http://t.co/DPm6aLzI This story will have legs, 4 2b exact. Beef will b down until scope clears $$ Apr 25, 2012
• On the Social Security 2012 Report to Congress http://t.co/RPG3qz1p Age <53 today can expect to get 75% of the value a baby boomer got $$ Apr 24, 2012
• Rosenberg: U.S. Clients View Canada as ’51st State’ http://t.co/EqVvLFpX Careful, w/rates so low, housing is looking bubbly & banks?? $$ Apr 24, 2012
• Fees and Anger Rise in California Water War http://t.co/9GjE5jwx Bad geography to get water to, unless you want to try desalinization. $$ Apr 24, 2012
• @moorehn Heidi, I was 1 of the 8 bloggers @ the 1st blogger summit at the Treasury, & not 1 of the noisier ones. I spoke twice in the 90mins Apr 24, 2012
• @moorehn So here is my Q4 Geithner: How do we get out of the entitlements crisis? We have promises equal to 4-5x GDP!? [Amid the deficit] $$ Apr 24, 2012
• Housing market no longer yours for a steal http://t.co/xb2E2JIy Low end res RE is not accepting lowball offers to buy as it used to $$ Apr 23, 2012
• You Won’t BELIEVE How Bearish Investors Are On Treasuries http://t.co/q9t2sZdE 2% bullish, 81% bearish in Barron’s poll. FD: + $TLT $$ Apr 23, 2012

Miscellaneous

• US College Education Bubble, Planning for the Wrong Future http://t.co/BScEbQJI But many smaller job fields req college & pay well. $$ Apr 28, 2012
• Hong Kong Glued to ‘Bride Wannabes’ http://t.co/6p9RCs0X Reality TV aids lovelorn 30-something women, ending w/a mass marriage 4 some $$ Apr 26, 2012
• But really, with Agriculture doing so well in the US, isn’t it time to finally cut farm subsidies? And beef up (oops) USDA food safety? $$ Apr 25, 2012
• Government Keeps Picking Winners, Losers on the Farm http://t.co/PKiJBHIp Farmer complains healthy food gets less subsidy than unhealthy Apr 25, 2012

Since coming back to work in Baltimore in 2007, I’ve tried to be more active in the Baltimore CFA Society.  That has taken on a number of different forms:

• Serving on the program committee, lining up speakers as I can — sometimes I find it hard to get well-known friends to do it… surprising to me.  Ask me to speak, I’ll be there.
• Speaking at the International Markets Summit that the Towson University Investment Group put on this Spring
• Writing for the Baltimore Business Review in 2011 and 2012, jointly sponsored by the the Baltimore CFA Society and the Towson University College of Business and Economics.
• Being a judge at the Washington/Baltimore Investment Research Challenge.

But now the program season ends with a bang, with Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley.  What questions would you ask the Governor of one of the bluest states in the US, one that has the advantage of living next door to the money vortex known as Washington, DC?  It’s not as if there aren’t any problems:

• We face a significant budget deficit, and the most likely solution is a special session of the legislature that raises taxes, when taxes are already high.
• The government pension funds are significantly underfunded, and don’t ask about government retiree healthcare…
• Maryland (outside of Montgomery County, and maybe Howard and Baltimore Counties [note to non-Marylanders, Baltimore City is a county, and is different from Baltimore County which is kind of a ring around Baltimore City.]) isn’t the best place to run a public corporation.  Taxes and regulations are high, and it is not a right-to-work state.

That said, aside from proximity to DC, Maryland has a number of things going for it:

• An educated workforce
• The biotechnology industry, aided by the NIH & Johns Hopkins
• The REIT and Hotel industries have a large presence here

So, if you want to, and can make it, there are a limited number of seats to come and hear Martin O’Malley speak.  Please come.  If you can’t come, and you would have a question for the Governor, list it in the comments below.  I will take the best question, and ask the Governor that.

Following this is the press release for our meeting:

Center Club 100 Light Street, Baltimore, MD 16th Floor, Harbor Room

Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley Speaks to the Baltimore CFA Society: Maryland’s Jobs, Economy, and Innovation

Baltimore, MD, April 26, 2012:  In a time when the economy is under stress and the economies of many states are depressed, Martin O’Malley, Governor of Maryland, comes to speak to the Baltimore CFA Society at Noon on May 3^rd, on Maryland’s Jobs, Economy and Innovation.  The meeting will be at the Center Club in Downtown Baltimore.

Though seating is limited, the event is open to the public and registration is available at this web address: Register & Pay.   Check-in starts at 11:45 AM.

In particular, Governor O’Malley will discuss the role of innovation and entrepreneurship in strengthening Maryland’s economy. Financial services play a key role in Maryland’s economy. How will the Invest MD program build on recent success?

Join us for a lively talk and discussion with the current Governor of the great State of Maryland.

BALTIMORE CFA SOCIETY

The Baltimore CFA Society was founded in 1948.  Its mission is to facilitate the exchange of ideas, networking and professional development while adhering to a Code of Ethical Standards.  The Baltimore CFA Society has promoted Baltimore and Maryland businesses through the Baltimore Business Review (www.baltimorebusinessreview.org).  The society’s diverse membership represents over 600 financial service professionals from across the State of Maryland. 

-End-

Comments

• No significant changes from last time.  They shaded up their views on housing, inflation, and global financial risk.  That’s all.
• In my opinion, I don’t think holding down longer-term rates on the highest-quality debt will have any impact on lower quality debts, which is where most of the economy finances itself.
• Also, the reinvestment in Agency MBS should have limited impact because so many owners are inverted, or ineligible for financing backed by the GSEs, and implicitly the government, even with the recently announced refinancing changes.
• The key variables on Fed Policy are capacity utilization, unemployment, inflation trends, and inflation expectations.  As a result, the FOMC ain’t moving rates up, absent increases in employment, or a US Dollar crisis.  Labor employment is the key metric.
• The Fed is out of good policy tools, so it will use bad policy tools instead, and for longer than before.
• Do they want the yield on 30 year TIPS to go negative?  Looks that way.
• GDP growth is not improving much if at all, and the unemployment rate improvement comes more from discouraged workers.  Inflation has moderated, but whether it will stay that way is another question.

Questions for Dr. Bernanke:

• Is it possible that you don’t really know what would have worked to solve the Great Depression, and you are just committing an entirely new error that will result in a larger problem for us later?
• Why do think extending the period of accommodation by a little more than a year will have any significant effect on the economy, aside from stock and bond prices?
• Discouraged workers are a large factor in the falling unemployment rate. Why do you think the economy is doing well?
• Couldn’t increased unemployment be structural, after all, there is a lot more competition from labor in emerging markets?
• Why do you think that holding down longer-term rates on the highest-quality debt will have any impact on lower quality debts, which is where most of the economy finances itself?
• Why will reinvestment in Agency MBS help the economy significantly?  Doesn’t that only help solvent borrowers on the low end of housing, who don’t really need the help?
• Isn’t stagflation a possibility here?  I mean, no one expected it in the ‘70s either.
• Could we end up with another debt bubble from keeping short rates so low?
• If the Fed ever does shrink its balance sheet, what effect will it have on the banks?

This book is highly optimistic that we will restore a gold standard to our world.  Much as I would like it, because it restrains the power of governments that increasingly behave like thugs, I don’t think a gold standard is likely to replace the status quo.

The book has many good areas to commend it, where it deals with history, explaining the problems of the past.  It trashes the concept of the SDR of the IMF, it is the Euro on an even weaker footing.

But the book is weak, because it does not recognize that the standard for money and the regulation of banks are separate issues.  Merely instituting a gold standard will not bring stability.  One must regulate heavily the degree that banks borrow short and lend long.  We had many crises during the gold standard in the 19th century, none as bad as the Great Depression, but they all stemmed from a lack of bank regulation.  I have no sympathy for the concept of “free banking.”  Anyone that is making a large number of promises needs to be regulated; he is a systemic risk.

Chapter seven is the critical chapter of the book, and it fails because it doesn’t go far enough.  In the chapter, Russia adopts a gold standard, and requires payment in gold for exports.  Fair enough, but as other nations attempt to adopt a gold standard, they would find their exporters objecting, leading to no adoption of a gold standard.

Chapter seven is the only thing that makes this book unique, and it is why I requested it from the publisher.  That makes this book a “fail.”

On the bright side, I now know that a gold standard would be difficult to appear, unless hyperinflation drove people to a commodity standard.  (And the odds of that are better than 20% over the next 20 years.

Quibbles

I do not recommend this book.

Who would benefit from this book: No one.  If you want to, you can buy the book here: The Golden Revolution: How to Prepare for the Coming Global Gold Standard.

Full disclosure: I asked the publisher for the book and he sent it to me.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.  This is my main source of blog revenue.  I prefer this to a “tip jar” because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.  Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don’t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don’t, I mention that I scanned the book.  Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.  Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.  Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don’t change.

There is more money to be lost than made in most controversial IPOs, on average. Don’t get me wrong, this is a good book, and the author knows what she is talking about, but whether one should buy Facebook in its IPO next month is a huge open question, and I would encourage you to read this book to think through the problem.

If you read the book, you will get a healthy dose of skepticism, mixed with the idea that many large IPOs in tech have been successful, like Google.  The main idea is that you have to do due diligence.  All snowflakes have six corners, but they are all different.

The book gives you five different ways to value Facebook, and those methods are all over the map, as they should be for a company where the economics are yet to be determined.  At least it is profitable.

The range of valuation gives everyone something to hang onto, but the thought process should force everyone to think about how Facebook will monetize all of their users.  Will the users behave in a way that allows Facebook to make money off them?  So far, yes, but the future is far more volatile than I can imagine.

In general, I would advise readers to avoid IPOs.  Most people lose money in buying them on the secondary markets.  Better you should buy stock in less flashy businesses like utilities, insurance, and energy stocks.  You will make more money there — businesses with a high earnings yield tend to do better than other stocks, and Facebook does not make it there, for now.  Buying Facebook implies a company that will grow far more rapidly than most, and far a long time, which is not common.

If you are thinking about buying shares of Facebook, spend five bucks or so, and get this book.  It’s less than a brokerage commission, and worth more than most in educating you about the value of Facebook.

Quibbles

None; this is a good book.  What matters most is how you think about it.

Who would benefit from this book: If you want to buy the Facebook IPO, buy this book and learn something.  Be aware before you buy, or be dissuaded before you do nothing.  If you want to, you can buy the book here: The Facebook IPO Primer.

Full disclosure: The publisher asked if I wanted to read the book electronically.  I said “yes” and I downloaded it and read it.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.  This is my main source of blog revenue.  I prefer this to a “tip jar” because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.  Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don’t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don’t, I mention that I scanned the book.  Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.  Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.  Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don’t change.