Search Results for: Flavors of Insurance

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Japan

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  • Japan World-Beating Stocks Seen Repeating Gains in 2014 http://t.co/v5QR4nVKd3 Analysts follow trends; they r wrong at turning points $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Abenomics Drives Japan Hedge Funds to World?s Top Performers http://t.co/fDmMBWIxgL Let’s c if Japan can survive the increase in debts $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Asia: From baby boom to bust http://t.co/eaDLDS3oAL Watch Japan 4a preview of what will happen across all of Asia; it won’t b pretty $$ Dec 28, 2013

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China

 

  • China Confronts Workforce Drop With Retirement-Age Delay http://t.co/TdsDKG1p5u China gets to the problem very late & way too small $$ $FXI Dec 26, 2013
  • China is so worried about its cash crunch that it banned the term http://t.co/y0eN3A58iB Worry when central bankers care about language $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • China Credit Squeeze Eases as Central Bank Resumes Using Regular Cash-Injection Tool http://t.co/D5UNiQuQSv Papers over solvency issues $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • China’s Pain Points http://t.co/Ry2XaZHYT8 underfunded health&pension systems; environment probs; water shortages; corruption; rigged courts Dec 26, 2013
  • China Promise Clashes With Clampdown on Foreign Business http://t.co/ycKPAWqGa2 They want the best of both worlds, and can’t get both $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • PBOC?s Opacity Leaves Markets Guessing Amid Cash Crunch http://t.co/TsgynBHdo6 No guess what PBOC policy will b, makin’ it up as they go $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • China Cash Crunch Pushes Up Short-Term Rates http://t.co/MgWmHwdQuC The fragility of the Chinese financial system comes into view $$ $FXI Dec 23, 2013
  • Was 2013 the Year We Lost China? http://t.co/Fmz3RixLW7 It’s difficult 2 say whether we ever “had” China, it pursues its own goals $$ $FXI Dec 23, 2013

 

PPACA / Obamacare

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  • Obamacare Hits Snag in States as US Site Finds Footing http://t.co/3q1SnLxu59 Surprised that some of the states would do worse than Feds $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Obamacare’s Web site Exchange Woes Trace to Cato’s Michael Cannon http://t.co/SDhb9sdATZ One Q is whether the natl exchange can subsidize $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • What to Do When ObamaCare Unravels http://t.co/w2iNS1HhWd Cute alternative 2 PPACA, but I think it could b even more expensive than PPACA $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Rule Change on Health Insurance Rattles Industry http://t.co/Fyntbs0rjS The lowball estimate of what Obamacare would cost comes back2bite $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Obama Repeals ObamaCare http://t.co/0RerlzDqA2 It was bad enough under Bush, y does Congress tolerate a president behaving like a king? $$ Dec 23, 2013

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Rest of the World

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  • Thai General Refuses to Rule Out Coup as Unrest Drags On http://t.co/PfqhKwIpSD A Thai friend of mine said military is needed in politics $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • BlackRock Buys Turkey Shares After Turmoil Spooks Markets http://t.co/bbcxmWIXHM $TUR down >26% in 2013 http://t.co/cHkL6E2TUd; $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Iranians Pile Into Stocks as Nuclear Deal Spurs 133% Gain http://t.co/mZ7J47vnPp Wall Street getting slow; no $IRAN ETF available yet $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Even in Straitened Times, Portugal Loves Its Bimby Cooking Robots http://t.co/j8a732IuKA Y isn’t this sold in the US? It does it all $$ $SPY Dec 26, 2013
  • Jihadists in Syria Draw Children of Muslims Who Settled in Europe http://t.co/r5suj7cZ6l Romantic youths want their lives 2b more than $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • UN to nearly double peace-keepers in South Sudan as violence explodes http://t.co/X9Z94O0mXF UN always increases malfeasance, bad 4 all $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Ukraine Upheaval Spurred by 28% Rates Limiting Buyers http://t.co/5VFiYvnpRk Capital flees when civil disturbances arise, thus high rates $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • US Plans to Ask UN for More Troops in Turbulent South Sudan http://t.co/I60iRC1Nmb UN is not a lot of help in situations like this $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Swiss Banks Employ Army of Advisers for US Amnesty Plan http://t.co/qRLXTt1JS7 Differing strategies as US exposure & reporting varies $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • South Sudan Refugees Swell As Americans Are Evacuated http://t.co/Iq2VxuFYNz Throw a bunch of warlords together, call it a govt & u get? $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Russia Crisis Haunts Deutsche Bank?s Smith Seeing China Bust http://t.co/nRm4PPTlvA Suspect a China debt crisis would not affect US $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Venezuela Devalues Bolivar for Tourist Dollars by 44% http://t.co/rOdpVu4xRd Almost 2 the point where the dollar will replace the bolivar $$ Dec 23, 2013

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NSA

 

  • Report on NSA ‘secret’ payments to RSA fuels encryption controversy http://t.co/1YTaHu4mfK Put in a backdoor so that NSA could access $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Edward Snowden, after months of NSA revelations, says his mission?s accomplished http://t.co/MdMFbSKaYK His life’s work is complete @ 29 $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • The One Big Question About RSA and Its Relationship With the NSA http://t.co/vR7GCsCa38 RSA builds “backdoor” 4 NSA 2 use, gets secret $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • NSA Struggles to Make Sense of Flood of Surveillance Data http://t.co/0gjztWYMSM Inside look at how data surveillance got out of control $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Finnish Security Researcher Cancels RSA Talk in Protest http://t.co/v0hsM2y548 RSA deliberately built faulty random number generator 4NSA $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Snowden Criticizes US Panel Overseeing Surveillance http://t.co/kLI7XmeKlN Panel exists 2whitewash bad behavior of intelgnc establishment $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Market Impact

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  • A Fund That Invests Like Buffett http://t.co/u9duSaR9oA I’m impressed; I’m putting their firm on my 13F list to track them quarterly $$ $SPY Dec 28, 2013
  • Our Outlook for the Stock Market http://t.co/N1IV6w32dj Morningstar gives their relatively bullish view of what 2014 will hold 4 stocks $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Muniland?s ?Best of 2013? http://t.co/KhaiAVmjzg @catelong is one of the best on municipal bonds & here is her summary of 2013 $$ $MUB Dec 28, 2013
  • 40% of fund managers surveyed r overweight euro-area equities http://t.co/vPYGQFvagC Bull Calls United in Europe, Strategists C 12% Gain $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • So, I’m skeptical of the article in the last tweet, unless the managers r long term investors & value players b/c flexible $$ runs in crises Dec 26, 2013
  • Half & Half: Why Rowing Works http://t.co/h46bRNMLAR A 50-50 mix of stocks & bonds w/rebalancing outperforms 100% stocks in choppy mkts $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • You Too Can Invest Like Warren Buffett?Maybe http://t.co/FU6MZzsmyj U would have to able to predict moats & not lever up too much $$ #tricky Dec 26, 2013
  • Investment Strategy Rises From Obscurity http://t.co/O8yIIqjTpZ US Govt loses $7B/yr on MLPs; Article features $IEP $CVR $CVRR $KMP $ETP $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Wall Street Landlord Loses Round 1 in Ohio School Tax Fight http://t.co/FgKOrnq283 Maybe school district should pass landlord profits tax $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Companies Binge on Share Buybacks http://t.co/JyW5QaRRP4 2% divs +3% buybacks ~5% shareholder yield. Is that enough reward 4 equity risk? $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • The TSC Streetside Chat: Robert Wilson, Part 2 http://t.co/IzzNlzE776 13 years old but prescient; he died in a suicide yesterday $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Financial Scammers Increasingly Target Elderly Americans http://t.co/raIvTr0B9a Tonight’s topic @ Aleph Blog – watch out 4 older friends $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • How Investigators Untangled the ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ Scandal http://t.co/AJwcx4XONC Penny stocks, overtrading, market manipulation $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • The Buyback Rally http://t.co/ZkBJsWBpe4 From @eddyelfenbein : 2% dividend yield + 3% buyback yield = 5% total yield on the market $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Hunt for Returns Prompts IPO Renaissance as US Leads Way http://t.co/dVURwoYGkn Capital will b deployed unproductively as the rally ends $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Secret Handshakes Greet Frat Brothers on Wall Street http://t.co/0t2zWLzL1A Part of what led to the crisis- connections&no smarts $$ $MS $GS Dec 23, 2013
  • Junk Loans Top ?08 Record as Safeguards Stripped http://t.co/9uZAwYeEaN Amazing how much biz u can do if u just leave aside risk control $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • The lavish lifestyles of placement agents http://t.co/0NU8cD5yl0 With pension monies, there is almost never a reason to pay commissions $$ Dec 22, 2013

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Companies & Industries

 

  • Twitter Posts Biggest-Ever Decline After Macquarie Downgrade http://t.co/zopyq0AKeb $TWTR needs 2show real income to validate valuation $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Twitter?s Ballooning Market Cap http://t.co/vm1xl8MRwb Every sell is a good sell. At worst, wait for relative strength to shift $TWTR $$ Dec 27, 2013
  • GM Robo-Glove to Meat Hook Smooth Human-Machine Teamwork http://t.co/G0dbUgbXIc The future of manufacturing: human-robot teams $$ $SPY $TLT Dec 26, 2013
  • $AMZN Makes Up to Customers After Backup Hits $UPS http://t.co/UUNGKJVJvI It is possible to overload the shipping system; $20 giftcards $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Panasonic Debt Goes to First From Worst on Revamp http://t.co/MsBhqKmMee Amazing what can happen when a mgmt team rationalizes businesses $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Bug Bites Cut Florida Orange Crop to Lowest in 2 Decades http://t.co/0muOIlUFmI Fortunately Brazil is having a good crop; citrus greening $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Reactors on Slow Road to Demolition http://t.co/jd3sbJiMHk Much hangs on creating a long-term site for storing nuclear waste $$ $D $EXC $ETR Dec 26, 2013
  • Twitter?s Ballooning Market Cap http://t.co/mhik2Xp8Nn The price discounts more than the future, it discounts the hereafter $$ $TWTR $SPY Dec 26, 2013
  • If Cadillac Keeps Growing Like This, It’ll Be America’s Bestselling Luxury Car http://t.co/YnijUf5SiC We r talking $GM; they will fail $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Wind Farms in Maine Stir a Power Struggle http://t.co/lhpmyeD75l I’m sorry, most people know that they don’t own their view, give it up $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • V.F. Corporation Common Stock Stock Chart http://t.co/5zEipUBEWf; Interesting 2c @Bloomberg & @yahoofinance mess up on $VFC ‘s 4 for 1 split $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Financial Sector

 

  • Banking Needs a New Regulatory Structure http://t.co/tgx7X4lSrq Rather, end interstate branching, & hand bank regulation back2 the states $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Will the Regulatory Screws Loosen in 2014? http://t.co/vxkuqAUCe9 Both sides r dreaming. Neither the regulators or banks r giving up $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • FDIC Recommendations to Curb Interest Rate Risk http://t.co/uRJw5tTcNS But will they bifurcate repo 2reveal the interest rate risk inside $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Examiners-in-Residence Should Be Pulled Out of Megabanks http://t.co/UcrvNoAmzu They will resist pressure better if they work together $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • How Thomas Curry Is Trying to Redeem the OCC http://t.co/iIbFR7Lqqv U can get a lot done in DC if u don’t care who gets the credit $$ $TLT Dec 26, 2013
  • Target?s Redcard Proves Less Vulnerable to Data Breach Than Bank Cards http://t.co/GDBN5KHvsK Added security makes the card harder2hack $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Angry Bart Takes His Parting Shot http://t.co/Wi5YChLExh How Wall St fights regulation: Direct kill; defund; exemptions; litigate $$ $GS $MS Dec 26, 2013
  • Why the US Leaves Its Credit-Card System Vulnerable to Fraud http://t.co/QN4egphZ8c Expensive to add more security & change hardware $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Politics & Policy

 

  • Deaton on US inequality and the Pareto criterion http://t.co/pdhMXzehju Hard to equalize; rich families have more resources 4 their kids $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Moguls Rent South Dakota Addresses to Dodge Taxes Forever http://t.co/4IYvqqrr66 Our own tax haven in Black Hills; set up a trust in SD $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Government Pulls in Reins On Disability Judges http://t.co/psmXNK7fXZ Disability Trust fund goes bust in 2016, judges urged 2b stricter $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Five Lessons of 2013, Guaranteed to Be Forgotten http://t.co/dCXEniOv8U I like # 3. The law of the land is subject to executive action. $$ Dec 26, 2013

 

Other

  • The marriage gap: Think again, men http://t.co/T45sDRYDFC People who r single rely on government more, v. married who rely on each other $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Two trends I’m watching next year http://t.co/Cx1gKdLaSR Cultural changes may limit HH formation & much capital formation is intangible $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Detroit Wins $55M in Concessions From 2 Banks http://t.co/wOEsceACAR Derivatives around munis usually have something crooked w/them $$ $MUB Dec 26, 2013
  • The LEET Pure PC – A PS4 And Xbox One Killer For Your Entertainment Room http://t.co/3mDBrtTHb0 Pretty cool. Powerful, flexible & stylish $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • White Chocolate, a Blank Slate for Flavor, Wins Converts http://t.co/WflwRKYYJg A platform to allow other flavors to show their stuff $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Colleges Trim Staffing Bloat http://t.co/bRtEMsnfqG Finally the bloat of making college into “country clubs” starts to decline $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Most Twitter User Have Few Followers – Study http://t.co/ghZfDqVjUJ U have 2get2 over 2000 followers b4u can b certain that any1 listens $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • A Pill to Cure Addiction? http://t.co/ORYsOeoNXN “huge amount of progress understanding what drives alcoholism & makes it difficult2stop” $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Are Cranberries a Better Way to Long Life? http://t.co/o0YJDa0Uhy The antioxidants in cranberries may prolong your life $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Fake Knee Surgery as Good as Real Procedure Study Finds http://t.co/Ucvi50nsqW Result Likely2Fuel Debate Over Common Orthopedic Operation $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Study: Eating Nuts in Pregnancy May Lower Child’s Allergy Risk http://t.co/X2IQwj1QfN Something new 4 children 2 blame their mothers over $$ Dec 24, 2013
  • Almond Spike Hits Germany’s Markets http://t.co/DpEJXxwWir Bad weather in California & Spain & demand in China push prices 2 record highs $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Unwanted Memories Erased in Electroconvulsive Therapy Experiment http://t.co/nfo3lDmHDH Great. Another way to remove humanity from people $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Wrong, Etc.

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  • Wrong: The Air of Unreality in NSA Reform http://t.co/8psN0iSI1r Being a free country means we have 2 allow 4 possibility of bad events $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Disagree:Snowden Says Surveillance Is Worse Than Orwell Envisioned http://t.co/2AEb3tNk0G It may b more pervasive but it is low intensity $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Central Error: that inflation & real growth are positively correlated [1970s] http://t.co/yLXk2UnQWu Dec 23, 2013
  • Wrong: GOP lawmaker: NSA spying in US could have prevented 9/11 http://t.co/cHAnKSOsqY At best, fighting the last war; live free or die $$ Dec 23, 2013

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Comments, Retweets & Replies

 

  • Commented on The Economist | The 2016 election: Flight of the Huckabees http://t.co/Yh3tym96OO Dec 27, 2013
  • ‘ @SonofGodMovie The 2nd Commandment says it’s wrong to portray God. Your movie makes Jesus a mere man; you can’t portray his divinity $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • @ReformedBroker Nailed it. Dec 25, 2013
  • RT @minefornothing: The economy of Cyprus is now also experiencing a major credit crunch http://t.co/uRMUjaUCyf Dec 24, 2013
  • http://t.co/60MjQwGbNz “It’s the thought that counts, which is worth more than money.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Ij9Ttfesye $$ Dec 24, 2013
  • RT @michaelsantoli: Trust me, in Dec ’87 no one said “Only 1/3 done” RT @CiovaccoCapital: Bull Markets can last a long time – see 82-’00 h? Dec 24, 2013

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Market Dynamics

 

  • The Scary Risks of Safety Bubble Up http://t.co/Tv3tG8TwSH Never forget that dividend stocks r stocks & that assets r risky if overpriced $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Cheap Mortgages Are Hiding the Truth About Home Prices http://t.co/bQoXGHWVwO If Mtge rates r artificially low then housing prices r high $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Suckers! Tech Execs Selling Stock as Nasdaq Hits High http://t.co/6lPnjk7sxu Fed is the tide; who will b found swimming naked when it ebbs $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Banking Business: Complexity Cubed http://t.co/N1itJvjmbx If you want to simplify corporate structure, start simplifying the tax code $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • The 14% Rate of Corporate Profits Will Eventually Revert 2 Mean, Spoiling the Party http://t.co/6TZXKn29uX Don’t use P/E 2 measure cheap $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • Most big companies, unless they r simple start to underperform at mkt cap > $100B. Managing the complexity is virtually impossible. $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • How The Equity Q Ratio Anticipates Stock Market Crashes http://t.co/2LiEi9zFzR & The Q Ratio and Market Valuation http://t.co/9tM6srmneq $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • Check Here to Tip Taxi Drivers or Save for 401(k) http://t.co/cNg8wSSDmh Stupid efforts at manipulating behavior eventually fail $$ #quitit Apr 10, 2013
  • Questions to Ask Your Adviser About Fees http://t.co/78kLdmlTGN Main things what do you pay & find out who else is paying him Apr 09, 2013

 

Europe

 

  • Merkel?s No-Nuke Stumble May Erode Re-Election Support http://t.co/B8c0441GDR An unforced error; far better 2 invest in Nuke plant safety $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Swedish Banks Make Money Ditching Cash as Krona Goes Virtual http://t.co/pcWOQztjwL It is a mistake to make $$ disappear. Ask Cyprus why $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Economic Crisis Hits the Netherlands http://t.co/63VuWJta03 Imagine a nation where 120% LTV loans & trading homes every 3 yrs is common $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • ECB Survey Challenges Image of Poor Southern Europe http://t.co/ITmwyBr5ng I suspect this study is wrong or measuring the wrong thing $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • Why Thatcher Wouldn?t Succeed in Our ?Lean In? Culture http://t.co/CKpMa4GYov U have to + in the concept of killing sacred cows w/courage $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • Portugal austerity plan frays http://t.co/ukBVsCYNeE Top court struck down wage cuts and lower pensions for state workers; what now, Troika? Apr 09, 2013
  • Soros: Europe faces ‘slow death’ Japan is trying to escape http://t.co/SEtqiNEBBU Seems 2 argue for massive QE, but no sign that QE works Apr 08, 2013
  • Why Rescue Fragile Banks? Outsource Them Instead http://t.co/ixYB95jHug Exile TBTF banks to the E-Zone; let them pay 4 the bailouts Apr 08, 2013
  • Europe Builds Own Chapter 11 http://t.co/kHrgFmMHc2 Moves closer to the US, but still is not as flexible in rehabilitating corporations Apr 07, 2013

 

Credit Markets

 

  • Foreclosures Jump in New York as US Sees Decline: Mortgages http://t.co/oaz5prhQVA Judicial f/c states catch up w/the rest of the US $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Pimco’s Gross Turns Positive on 10-Year Treasurys http://t.co/8uBxkzWxgK Guessing what central banks will want 2 buy, mug’s game Apr 10, 2013
  • Bank Investors Press Breakups to Add Value, Burnell Says http://t.co/DQefb93MB5 Biggest banks r worth more broken up; can’t manage well $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • Banks rethink the branch, but will it work? http://t.co/JwDHF22Re4 This article is just another way 2say there r2 many banks & branches $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • The leverage story banks want to hide http://t.co/yebYHRCxn5 To avoid bank insolvency focus on liquidity of assets/liabs in stressed times Apr 09, 2013
  • Contagion Starts Small http://t.co/0PeQhSd6Qb Small->large requires domino debt failures, needing liquidity for illiquid, or safety mismatch Apr 09, 2013
  • Time bomb to the next crash is ticking as debt sales surge http://t.co/zn41h2eJ8E Investors requiring safety mismatch buying unsafe debt Apr 09, 2013
  • Where Bank Regulators Go to Get Rich http://t.co/hGnGn3hpwt An astounding array of former regulators aiding “end arounds” on regulation Apr 08, 2013

 

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Ghost of Suharto Seen in Boomtowns Leading Indonesia Growth http://t.co/nYsu2yuN5L Indonesia often booms near end of global econ cycle $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Low bond yields luring global central banks into equities: survey http://t.co/HoeVX2qHbY This is so unorthodox & cronyist it beggars belief Apr 09, 2013
  • Why Capitalism Won?t Change North Korea?s Regime http://t.co/dSxzrFaCgz Current leaders will lose out if people learn how badly they live $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • Clashes Highlight Egyptian Divide http://t.co/oaMtZkIbjC Hippocratic Oath applies to diplomacy w/”regime change:” “First do no harm!” Apr 08, 2013
  • Is the Global Economy Slowly Falling Apart? http://t.co/zMQx2ih1vE Good list of some of the major problems; overstated title/weak conclusion Apr 08, 2013

 

China

 

  • A Day in the Life of a Beijing ‘Black Guard’ http://t.co/P8ElsIJPMM Secretive groups stop Chinese citizens complaining about local govts $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • China Exports Miss Forecasts as ?Absurd? Data Probed http://t.co/Ycch2uQu04 Will b interesting 2c how people revise views on Chinese data $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • In China, off-balance-sheet lending risks lurk in the shadows http://t.co/Vg4tBss9gV Tough Q: how do the shadow banks & municipalities fund? Apr 09, 2013
  • New Bird Flu Seen Having Some Markers of Airborne Killer http://t.co/8QrkkXKaY5 No sign of mammal-to-mammal transmission, would not worry Apr 07, 2013
  • China Says It Can Manage H7N9 Virus as Infections Rise http://t.co/mfgn75pOIY No human-to-human transmission yet, SARS-like most likely Apr 08, 2013

 

Japan

 

 

US Politics & Policy

 

  • Options Few as US Leaders Told Saturday Mail Can?t End http://t.co/317ANktRxp Raise all postage prices, & double 4 junk mail $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Boomers Push Doctor-Assisted Dying in End-of-Life Revolt http://t.co/kTfahFMOwh It’s almost like the Boomers want to corrupt everything $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Medical School at $278,000 Means Even Bernanke Son Has Debt http://t.co/VrYkFx2Lcr Bad idea 2 invest where rules can b changed against u $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Obama seeks to reduce US subsidy of crop insurance http://t.co/LfxfYeC63n It is time 2 end ALL Ag subsidies; just goes 2 Big Agriculture $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • FOMC Minutes Show Several Members Saw QE Over by Year-End http://t.co/xkcGOm2ly1 Don’t think so, but if true, lighten up on risk assets $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • Andy Kessler: The Pension Rate-of-Return Fantasy http://t.co/MzvTrYHBFh Excellent piece: bad pension assumptions; will lead2 benefit cuts $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • Interview with Harvard Economist Carmen Reinhart on Financial Repression http://t.co/XkB8Mf5R1Z Sane words amid macroeconomic snake oil $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • USDA asks White House to approve sugar-for-ethanol program http://t.co/g2Ldt5ge3s Utter corruption, $$ in the pockets of the US Sugar lobby Apr 09, 2013
  • A Primer for Understanding Obama’s Budget http://t.co/O9DgmLFQQD This is y Federal Debt always goes up by more than the planned deficit Apr 09, 2013
  • Evangelicals Push Immigration Path http://t.co/KCaNhFnhGd Governments limit immigration 4 selfish reasons; migrants come b/c desperation Apr 09, 2013
  • U.S. Plans New Laser Weapon for Persian Gulf http://t.co/ZdzZZTwSs4 Don’t get too excited; it only works at short range #studyphysics Apr 09, 2013
  • O?Malley Wins on Guns, Taxes Seen as 2016 Resume-Packing http://t.co/74fFr0oKkf Raided liability funds 2 finance current spending #phony Apr 09, 2013
  • How Obamacare Will Distort the Health-Care Market http://t.co/o0yHYcgESu This was easy2c in advance; ability to adjust premiums very limited Apr 08, 2013
  • Rhode Island’s Scary State Treasurer http://t.co/ib56cMDhWI Raimondo fires back after Forbes contributor attacks her http://t.co/qHeAUIw7P7 Apr 08, 2013
  • Workers Stuck in Disability Stunt Economic Recovery http://t.co/G0gqpP8pLM Many of these people should be called unemployed, not disabled Apr 08, 2013
  • Chicago Mayor’s Pension Conundrum http://t.co/iE5grwyd14 Tip of the iceberg; this is going on in different ways in all US states Apr 08, 2013

 

 

Wrong

 

  • Wrong: This Underused Metric Points To Big-Name Bargains http://t.co/MpAgxDmzsN 4 of 8 “bargains” r insurers; no way 2calc free cash flow $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • Wrong: Kill the 30-Yr Mortgage http://t.co/XKm9fRJXaR You don’t finance long-term assets like homes w/short-term debt. Badly thought-out $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • A better long-term solution to make the residential RE mkts more stable would be to ban mortgage insurance & second lien mortgages (HEL) $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • Wrong: Stalking the Silent Financial Killer in Our Midst http://t.co/HVOm4GCjHM Please kill this while little: LTC not underwritable $$ Apr 10, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Mmm, the Flavors of Fermentation http://t.co/i7sNTIixK4 Interesting article that points out the many ways we use fermentation 4 flavoring $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Gates Helps Australia?s Richest Man in Bid to End Slavery http://t.co/UMUOLJ8nvT Noble goal 2 free those who r essentially kidnapped $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • How Thatcher Saved Britain http://t.co/Re3BWfPvPx She did not give in 2 the Unions, nor Argentina, nor USSR, nor the media; she stood alone Apr 10, 2013
  • Wood: the fuel of the future http://t.co/QZC54Ud6gy Having lived in a town where wood was the most common winter heat source, air was dirty Apr 09, 2013
  • Tour Data Suggest Tiger Woods Owes His Comeback to One Basic Skill?Sinking Putts http://t.co/WSOTrhn0iU Drive 4 show; Putt 4 dough. Apr 09, 2013
  • Label Decoder | Protein Additives http://t.co/HAx2Ta4UEu I think we are creating more health problems by eating processed foods Apr 09, 2013
  • 10 Insanely Overpaid Nonprofit Execs http://t.co/gH0Fa7EszO Caught btw managing a large enterprise & charitable mission; fight each other Apr 08, 2013
  • The Golf Shot Heard Round the Academic World http://t.co/EeFl5NFoMz Multiculturalism that cannot tolerate the ideas of conservatives Apr 07, 2013

 

Insurance

 

  • As an aside, SCOR’s balance sheet is more levered than it seems. Reminds me a little of Scottish Re (spit, spit) RGA’s looks solid FD:+ $RGA Apr 11, 2013
  • RGA, Scor in final race for Generali US unit-sources http://t.co/MUbVuvMpZv SCOR aggressive, will likely overpay | FD: + $RGA $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Ace?s Greenberg Says Takeover Spree Beats Share Buybacks http://t.co/lwYLCLUg45 Seems like Evan is trying 2 create a mini- $AIG $$ $ACE Apr 11, 2013
  • Record levels for global reinsurer capital http://t.co/y70eA0H6Xz Listen 2 1Q conf calls, listen 4 pricing, divs, buybacks. EZ $$ been made Apr 10, 2013
  • Metlife on Offensive Against Systemic Tag http://t.co/NgBhd6I1p7 Life Ins cos shouldn’t b SIFIs unless they have short-dated funding $$ $MET Apr 10, 2013
  • Insurers see promise in pay-for-performance health plans http://t.co/Hrpy0KEk4M Skeptical: does not remove incentives 4 overuse by doctors Apr 09, 2013

 

Banks

 

  • Banks Are Not as Bad as You Think: Pettis http://t.co/rPWAZy1GbD Afraid I have to disagree, bad banks set back growth in 1870s & 1930s $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Crapo Says He Opposes Setting Capital Standards With Legislation http://t.co/SshephsE7y Far better2focus on liquidity analyses under stress Apr 09, 2013

 

Technology

 

  • Regulators Feeling ‘Social’ Pressure http://t.co/sylIMHMQ65 In Age of Twitter, Old Rules That Don’t Address New Media Pose Challenges $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • Drug Conjugates: ‘Guided Missiles’ to Treat Cancer http://t.co/eA3EatBo7M Drug conjugates attack tumor cells, rather than just any cells $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • The Future Of Mobile [SLIDE DECK] http://t.co/iLu3Cr3uQ7 Long, but data-packed & a breezy read. cc @hblodget thanks, I learned some stuff Apr 09, 2013
  • Sponsors Now Pay for Online Articles, Not Just Ads http://t.co/wDOd0t57nd I get ~10/week of these at my blog. Have never taken any of them. Apr 09, 2013
  • We Just Took A Big Step Toward Having Super High-Definition Desktop Displays http://t.co/VL5LYGWACt So fine u won’t notice the pixels Apr 09, 2013
  • This Simple App Could Put E-Books On Millions Of Phones In The Third World http://t.co/wOFojOf6N2 Software & Cheap phones promote literacy Apr 09, 2013
  • Hypothermia Cure: Cooling Infants to Battle Brain Damage http://t.co/EG0o8qRu1H Interesting & Odd technology may benefit 0.1%+ of births Apr 09, 2013

 

US Economy

 

  • Murdoch-Diller Showdown Threatens to Make Fox Cable-Only http://t.co/pcIriVUDYw Endgame for the separation of content & transmission $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • North Dakota Undergoes Refining Renaissance http://t.co/UTFF2277sz U know things r hot when a new crude refinery is built from scratch $$ Apr 11, 2013
  • You Got In; Now, Please Come http://t.co/GWCQyqnIGV Speaks 2 the overcapacity problem in colleges; high fixed costs r driving pleading $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • ?Everyone believes that, given where we are with interest rates, the only eventual direction is up” I c this said daily maybe more $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • US Transports Economic Pulse : Trucks — Boats – Planes – Trains http://t.co/0kriEgfKnt Two up, two down — all in all, we muddle along Apr 09, 2013
  • I am become Ron Johnson, Destroyer of Worlds http://t.co/YUxa84LUKT @reformedbroker sets up future biz school case study. I + my $0.02 $JCP Apr 09, 2013

 

Replies, Comments & Retweets

  • Commented on StockTwits: Not really. At present I own the following for clients & me: $NWLI $RGA $AIZ $SFG $AFL &… http://t.co/q0v0UYfVRp Apr 11, 2013
  • Ouch RT @ReformedBroker: Gundlach: Forget Fed Minutes, QE is not stopping anytime soon, talk is just talk. Yellen’s down to do this til 2025 Apr 11, 2013
  • RT @ReformedBroker: “Japan is important to watch, it’s a pace car for stock market peaks, weird policy responses and currency debasement … Apr 11, 2013
  • I think so too $$ RT @ReformedBroker: Gundlach: “Emerging market corporate debt is THE best area of investment grade fixed income right now” Apr 11, 2013
  • @fundmyfund If “Everyone Ought to be Rich” then who will deliver the pizzas? 😉 Apr 11, 2013
  • @LaurenLaCapra Another idea: http://t.co/Gw1UKjS66Q DB available 4 pay: http://t.co/L2kLOZUlr0 League Tables cost $6 http://t.co/EG0FGgb6pu Apr 11, 2013
  • @LaurenLaCapra Thy this http://t.co/L9ZkQztxzD and if that’s not enough try this Google query: http://t.co/mO3CEmQwiM Take care Apr 11, 2013
  • ‘@PensionDialog 2003 vs now, interest rates were higher & valuations 4 risk assets lower. Pension returns will b lower over next 10 years $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • @ritwik_priya Saw that, though housing values have fallen across much of Europe, particularly where mortgage debt is high Apr 10, 2013
  • @PensionDialog That’s backward looking, while interest rates are forward looking. In 2003, 10Y Tsy yields were more than 2% higher than now Apr 10, 2013
  • ‘@EMostaque To some degree, others will let funding levels stay low (& hope), some will pay more $$ , some will cut benefits where possible Apr 10, 2013
  • @IraApfel Sadly, proposal will reduce assets in MMFs, which r usually more stable than banks in a crisis. Better: http://t.co/nC8D4TetbQ $$ Apr 10, 2013
  • Yes RT @asymptotix: So, if anyone must leave, it should be Germany (and Finland), not Italy, Greece, Ireland, Portugal or Spain.. Apr 09, 2013
  • @jarrodwilcox A free trade zone in Europe is a good thing & might prevent war; a common currency, the way it is going could start one Apr 09, 2013
  • @jarrodwilcox But I think WW 3 is a boogeyman. Sandwiched between Russia/USSR & the US, that big of a war wouldn’t be likely 2 happen. Apr 09, 2013
  • Probably the latest peak blossom since I’ve been here RT @EddyElfenbein: Cherry blossoms in DC http://t.co/IG9XiDIYrc Apr 09, 2013
  • RT @jarrodwilcox: @AlephBlog Euro looks like a disaster until you remember WWII. Political will to overcome divisions may still be will … Apr 09, 2013
  • Those are succinct insights in why the Euro would fail. There were other saying similar things at the time… http://t.co/7B0cpWcIhO Apr 09, 2013
  • RT @AndreCimini: @AlephBlog Yes, absolutely. Here’s a couple of very interesting articles on Canada: 1) http://t.co/HEXt7c8HKH 2) htt … Apr 09, 2013
  • @AndreCimini Cam Hui is a good guy; I usually agree w/him. Second article makes some very good points; I learned from it, tho I knew some Apr 09, 2013
  • @AndreCimini It was an interesting article. Interesting to contrast US/States v Canada/Provinces. Provinces do more; linked tighter2Canada Apr 09, 2013
  • RT @AndreCimini: @AlephBlog Here’s why CDN gov’t debt deceiving; add in provincial debt and total debt is around 86% of GDP. http://t.c … Apr 09, 2013
  • @AndreCimini Thanks, I had forgotten that. Apr 09, 2013
  • 1 straw blowing in the wind, some go other ways RT @ReformedBroker: Forward Earnings Estimates Set a New Record High http://t.co/4OxyGoYQcX Apr 08, 2013
  • @groditi Also factor in the drag from pension liabilities, reductions from spending rules from lower interest rates; I think it washes Apr 08, 2013

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FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 34 retweets received, 2 new listings, 61 new followers, 34 mentions. Via: http://t.co/cPSEMLXpb8 Apr 11, 2013

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On Multiparty Transactions

On Multiparty Transactions

I’m not an expert on game theory, but the rule of thumb I have run across is to win in games with more than two parties, you must assemble a coalition that has more than 51% of the aggregate power within the game.

Practical rule number two is that the one on the winning side that arranges/controls the communications/relationships tends to walk off with a larger proportion of the stakes won in the game.

I learned this early as a young actuary working on my pricing models, and noted that those that really made out well in insurance were the successful agents.? They brought two parties, insured and insurer together, who most of the time would not have found each other.? Then, they did policyholder service for the company and the customer controlling the flow of information in the process.? There were times when I thought it would be useful for the company to talk more directly to the insured, but marketing sometimes objected, and so we didn’t.? The agents owned all the loyalty in the transactions.

As an older actuary, I saw this writ large when I was running an annuity division.? Using regression, I did what I think was one of the industry’s most advanced studies of deferred annuity withdrawal.? The Society of Actuaries produced a similar (but broader) study roughly one year behind me.? One of the main results of the study was that withdrawal rates spike when the surrender charge ends.? The reason is because most agents try to roll the business to a new product so that they can earn another commission.? (Trivia note: I learned that those policyholders that did not roll along with the agent were very sticky business.)

Multiparty transactions exist because there is something complex going on, and the multiple parties each serve a need, providing a service, or eliminating a risk.? Let’s move to the concept of buying a house.? Here is my informal list of all of the parties:

  1. Buyer
  2. Seller
  3. Realtor for the Seller — helps convince the buyer to buy.
  4. Realtor for the Buyer, or, sub-agent for the seller — helps the buyer find a good property to buy.
  5. Title insurer — assures that there are no mistakes in the transfer of title.
  6. Mortgage insurer — insures mortgage lender against default when there is little equity for the buyer.
  7. Property & Casualty insurer — protects the lender and buyer against losses from property damage, or injury to people on the property.
  8. Mortgage lender (first lien) — provides most of the money for the purchase
  9. Mortgage lender (second lien and beyond) — provides some money for the purchase, but in foreclosure gets paid after the first lien lender.
  10. Appraiser — gives an estimate of the value of the property so that the first lien lender does not lend too much.
  11. Home Inspector — finds defects in the property so that the buyer can adjust his price down.
  12. Taxation authorities — collect taxes, so that services that make the community livable are provided.
  13. Community Association — enforces neighborhood standards, so that property values are enhanced.
  14. There are more, but I can’t think of them…

Note: I did the “smiley-face” version of the roles parties play in the process.? I could have done the cynical version, but didn’t.? Also note that not all of the parties are needed on a given transaction.? The complexity erupts because the buyer needs to borrow to complete the transaction, and the lender wants protection.

Now, going back to my earlier thoughts, in this case, the first-lien mortgage lender has things set up to his advantage.? Many of the parties to the sale of a house exist to protect his interests.? It is the dominant party in this sort of transaction.? This leads to two current problems:

  • Mortgage reinsurance captives owned by banks originating the loans.
  • P&C Insurance that is forcibly placed by the lender when the buyer does not make P&C insurance payments.

On the first point there was an article today that I found surprising because it is so late to the game.? Don’t get me wrong, it is a good article, but for an insurance analyst that spent time analyzing the mortgage insurers, it is old news.? As I wrote back in 2003 (and published in 2010):

In addition, lenders that originate low down payment mortgages often force the mortgage insurers to cede low-risk parts of the business to reinsurance captives controlled by the lenders. This is a continuing problem, with many of the mortgage insurers refusing to go along with the most uneconomic reinsurance deals.

It got worse from there, with more mortgage insurers giving in, and lenders demanding a larger proportion of the profits.? Nominally they were reinsurance premiums, but for the most part they were closer to being commissions.? Why did the mortgage insurers go along with this?? Because the first-lien lenders were the dominant party in the transactions, controlling most of the other parties.? As a result, borrowers putting small amounts of money down ended up paying more for their mortgage insurance because of the pseudo-commission paid to the mortgage lender because of the captive reinsurer.? As I have sometimes said, “Reinsurance is the ultimate derivative; it can obscure almost any transaction.”

On force-placed insurance I have written as well, and it sounds a lot like this post.? The similarity is that the insurance is primarily designed to protect the mortgage lender, and the mortgage lender again collects a commission in the process because it is at the hub of communications.? The mortgage agreements give them discretionary power.

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My simple rule to average people when involved in complex transactions is this: be cynical.? No one is interested in your well-being, and most of the transactional terms are skewed against you.? To the extent that you can borrow less, and eliminate some of the parties that would be a part of the transaction, it is to your good that you do so.? The best situation is that you buy for cash, if you have it.

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Now, this same sort of analysis can be applied to securitizations, and other multiparty transactions.? Watch for who has control; it is a valuable option to have.? But that is an essay for another day.

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