National Atlantic Notes – The Aleph Blog

Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control

Posted on 9 February 20089 February 2008 by David Merkel

I have to be careful as I write this post, because I have agreements with my former employer. I will stick with what is publicly understood, and avoid internal knowledge of what my former employer thought when I last worked with them.

Today, after the close, Hovde Capital filed a 13D, seeking to own more than 17% of National Atlantic, and asking for seats on the board of directors. Now, what I want to say to my readers might agree with what Hovde Capital might want. Don’t make too much out of this. First, the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance might turn Hovde down. Second, realize that any party acquiring 10% or more of any publicly traded company has to file two days after making any trade. That is the signal that I would be looking for.

National Atlantic is my largest holding, and I am aware of other parties considering buying National Atlantic, but they fail the urgency test for me. There’s lots of talk but no action. Don’t take any action off of Hovde’s SEC filing. There are too many uncertainties here, and wise investors will wait for favorable levels for investing.

Full disclosure: long NAHC

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