The period from November 2007 through January 2008 was challenging, but I did say a lot of good things.? Here’s a sample of the best:
Contemplating Life Without the Guarantors
Markets always beat governments, unless governments get so determined as to subvert markets.? Guarantors provide “thought insurance” so you don’t have to analyze the bond that they guarantee.? But what if the solvency of the guarantor is questioned?
The US Dollar and the Five Stages of Grieving
An important article that explains why currency interventions almost never work.? Required reading for Treasury Departments and Central Banks.
Why Did I Name This Site ?The Aleph Blog??
Cogent explanation for the odd name.? But I have gotten the question a few times as to whether I named my site after Jorge Luis Borges short story, “The Aleph.”? The answer is no, but after reading “The Aleph,” I would say that it folds into reason number four for why this is called The Aleph Blog.? Aleph is big.? Very, very big.
On the Value of Secondary and Primary Markets
They are valuable for different reasons, but they are related.
In Defense of the Ratings Agencies
The original piece, pointing out how the regulators have abandoned their responsibility, having outsourced it to the rating agencies.
Personal Finance, Part 6 ? The First Question
How much are you willing to learn, and how much work do you want to do? For people who ask my advice, that is usually the first question that I ask.
Booyah for Brainy Buybacks! (But not Brain-dead Buybacks.)
There is no simple answer to whether a buyback is the right strategy or not.? It depends on the price of the stock versus its value.
You can own/short options, but you can’t own/short volatility per se, at least not back in 2007.
We are experiencing the front end of the woes now.? This won’t be over for 20 years.
How to Read the Whole Bible, and Survive the Experience
A simple way to read the whole of the Bible, and avoid getting bored, as so many do who try to read it straight through, and give up when 10-50% done.
In Defense of the Rating Agencies ? II
Anyone can criticize, but who can offer a system that is better than the present one on a comprehensive basis?
Berky had an opportunity with almost all of the financial guarantors kicked to the curb.? It never worked out because Berky would not take modest risks.? In foresight today, those modest risks don’t seem so modest, so salute Mr. Buffett, who has forgotten more than most of us will ever know.
What Did Buffett Know about the Gen Re Finite Reinsurance Deal with AIG?
Odds are, Buffett knew a lot more than he confessed to know.? Buffett is a maven on insurance issues.
Benchmarking enforces conformity on managers, and the shorter-term the horizon, the more it makes them closet indexers.
Pandora and the Fair Value Accounting Rules
There are really tough issues here.? Everyone wants to be accurate, but over what time horizon, and how to adjust over time?? Bright investors will build in provisions for adverse deviation, and be conservative.
This didn’t prove to be an issue, in this credit cycle, though form what I heard from insiders, it got close.? If the Fed hadn’t done 0% and QE, my dire predictions might have come true.? They still might in the future.? Be wary.
Though the videos have disappeared, the story of how President George W. Bush, Jr. came to visit the factory of a friend of mine (of which I own 1.4%) is an interesting tale.? I was proud of my friend, who is a humble, but a great guy.
A Bonus from MoneySense Magazine
A free version of what Canadian magazine buyers had to pay for. How to earn more while taking less risk.
Personal Finance, Part 11 ? Your Personal Required Investment Earnings Rate
The intuitive explanation of what you need to earn in order to achieve all of your life goals.? It’s probably higher than you think.
With 401(k)s and Other Defined Contribution Plans, Watch Your Wallet
An important article — from the article:
If you are paying more than 1% of assets per year, then something is wrong, unless the asset classes are esoteric, which should not be the case for DC plans.? Remember, you have to be your own guardian with defined contribution plans.? No one will do it for you.? And, if a few of your colleagues complain at the same time, you will be amazed at how quickly it will be taken seriously, because the administrative staff of the plan sponsor usually doesn?t get that much feedback.
In general, high costs are closely correlated with low performance.? Keep a close hand on your wallet, and leave those who are charging you more than 1%, unless they are doing something special for you.
=-==-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-
I think I gave good advice in that era.? As the bubble deflated, investors needed to be more careful, and I highlighted that.? Not that I will always get it right…