Day: July 23, 2011

Cash Versus Valuations

Cash Versus Valuations

From reading your blog, it isn’t clear whether you are a value investor or a valuation based investor. When you wrote that you would sell something only if you had a better opportunity, it sounds different from a traditional value investor (buy at a discount to fair value and sell when it approaches fair value, all assuming you can determine a fair value that the market is not properly recognizing). That is, perhaps you have x% in equities, split among a variety of holdings, and you are generally keeping an eye out for new opportunities, so that when a stock become really attractive, you will sell your least attractive (from a future returns perspective) holding in order to fund the new purchase.

Elsewhere, though, you wrote about the benefits of holding cash.

Perhaps you could write a post clarifying how these might relate. If you have cash, you don’t need to sell something (potentially good, or you wouldn’t have been holding it in the first place) in order to buy when a good opportunity comes along. When do you deploy cash (change the % of equity vs cash or bonds) rather than swapping equities? Or raise it? Do you have a macro view that governs when to increase/decrease your equity exposure? Or would you consider selling stock to “buy” cash (ultra short duration fixed income) as a “better investment opportunity”?

Are moves like this more selling driven (i.e. time to lighten up on equity, or this stock has gone up to a level of very low future returns)? Or are they buying driven (i.e. ABC is a great opportunity at this price, how should I pay for it? Cash or swapping out a position?)? Or is it just a complicated circumstance based mix?

Thanks for considering these issues.

ps I really appreciate the honesty and integrity you appear to bring both to your investing and your writing about investing.

pps Do you index at all? Or only hold individual securities?

This reader asks some interesting questions, and I want to give him some answers.

First, I am a value investor — I try to buy equities that have a margin of safety, with some potential for positive surprises.? I don’t buy securities where the balance sheet is weak.? But I have a more expansive view of value, because I am willing to buy into industries that have good growth prospects relative to their valuations.? In 2002, my biggest sector was technology.? Today, with big company technology so cheap, it is my third largest sector.

I do vary my stock holdings versus cash, but I limit my cash to 20% of my stock portfolio at maximum because I have been generally good at picking stocks over the years.? Cash is useful, but I try to vary it in proportion to valuations.

Take a look at my eight rules, they will tell you a lot.? One of my main ideas is that people aren’t good at making decisions when they have a big menu in front of them, but they are good at binary comparisons.? They can say, “This is better than that” with reasonable accuracy.

So most of the time, I do swap trades, trading things I like better for things I like less, much like a bond trader would.? When I am more bullish on the market, I add in an extra buy, and when I am bearish, I add in an extra sell.? But I stick with the essential idea of swap trades, because it forces the idea of the binary tradeoff.

That’s how I do it.? Now I wish it were working better for me over the last year, but I’m not worried because my methods have worked well for a long time.

PS — I never index.

Many Different Ways to Default

Many Different Ways to Default

In the book This Time Is Different, Reinhart and Rogoff take a more expansive view of default.? So do I.? To them/me, massive inflation is a type of default.? Any means of paying off a debt burden by handing off something less valuable than what was received, plus interest, is a form of default.

Yes, the Zimbabwe option is available.? Print money with abandon, issue debts with abandon in your own currency.? Use what you get from that to finance your budget deficit.? That has been done, but it is a form of default.

I give no credibility to those who say a sovereign nation can always issue more debt in their own currency, particularly when there are large voting blocs in society that will oppose inflation, or the fear of higher taxes from additional indebtedness.

Book Review: Lords of Finance

Book Review: Lords of Finance

 

I really enjoyed this book.? It taught me a lot regarding the four main central bankers and the problems that they faced between WWI and WWII.? Add in Lord Keynes and you have real party.

WWI Reparations were too large for the Germans to afford.? But worse, France and England relied on those repayments so that they could repay America on their loans.? That made the squabble over reparations far worse.

What is more fascinating is how WWI with reparations helped lead to WWII.? The resentment of the Germans to occupation, reparations, etc., led to a fighting spirit, combined with antisemitism because of hatred of bankers, and you have a lot of what drove the war.

You will learn a lot if you read this book.? It is long, but valuable.? I recommend the book highly, subject to my disagreements.

Quibbles

Crises do not come as a result of a gold standard but from overly levered banking where liabilities are short and assets are long.? The book showed minimal understanding of basic principles of banking.

As a result, don’t listen to Keynes as much as Fisher.? Fisher understood the real cause of the Depression: too much debt.? Once debt came back to normal levels in 1941, the economy normalized.? WWII did not get us out of the depression, rather, it prolonged the suffering for those at home.

Who would benefit from this book:

Those wanting a good historical understanding of the financial facts between the First and Second World Wars will get it here.? You will understand the players and their motivations.

If you want to, you can buy it here: Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World.

Full disclosure: I asked the publisher for the book and he sent me a copy.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

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