I’m still toying with the idea of starting an insurance-only hedge fund.? I own a lot of insurers, and I think that I get the better of that market.
Where I have a harder time is with what to short. Shorting is tactical not structural, and I am less good at the tactical vs structural.? Having a tradable benchmark to short against would be useful, but what exists there?
There is one ETF focused on insurance that has any significant volume — KIE.? In the past, it was capitalization-weighted, but now it is equal-weighted.? That stems from a change in the index that the ETF follows, from one set by KBW to one set by S&P.
Personally, I don’t get the change, but here are my statistics on the change:
The “Old KBW” column comes from segmentation done by KBW.? The other columns are done by me.? There are some matters for judgment:
Do you include Berkshire Hathaway?? I think you should.? Do you include foreign life insurers traded on US exchanges?? I think you should.
I am also more willing to place a company in the “Conglomerate” category because of companies that are in multiple lines of insurance, without a dominant area of insurance that they are in, or, they have significant non-insurance ventures.
Anyway, the new KIE overstates the insurers in Bermuda and the Brokers.? It understates life insurers and conglomerates.
Aside from that, the new S&P index, being equal-weighted, is more mid-cap than a whole market index would be.? Also, if I put more effort into this, I would segment companies into their proportions, and there we be no conglomerates.
These may be trivial concerns to some, but if you are thinking of running a portfolio that might be shorting KIE against other insurance longs, it makes a considerable difference.
Do you have any advice on articles or books to read for getting a better grasp of the underwriting cycle?
Start here:
http://alephblog.com/2010/06/06/a-summary-of-my-writings-on-analyzing-insurance-stocks/
You can also google, or use my search box on the phrase “flavors of insurance”
Thanks, I appreciate your help.
http://alephblog.com/?s=flavors+of+insurance
Why are they pulling the P&C companies out of the KIE? Are they creating a P&C index?
Also, in your column, “actual US Traded”, why do you have the P&C business set to 0?
Thanks
P&C companies I divide into Personal, Commercial, and Conglomerate (Diversified/Mixed) for analysis purposes.
Every now and then, I take the conglomerates, and break them down by line.
Thanks David.
I looked at this in some more detail and I’m not sure this would be a reasonable index to short a portfolio against. It has 43 stocks and, as you say is equal-weighted, so I think you have to become a market timer to beat this index, going for smallcaps with high beta in rising markets and largecaps with more safety in down markets.
I think this would be difficult to time well and it would be easier to identify individual companies for shorting against the better ones.
IMO.