Month: January 2012

Recent Tweets

Recent Tweets

  • @DavidSchawel Shrink the balance sheets then for true profit; sell AFS assets, & use proceeds to buy back debt. Makes BalSht cleaner also $$ Jan 13, 2012
  • Could protectionism, tariffs, & a VAT lead 2 inflation? RT @historysquared: $$ : Latest in the Ongoing Global Trade War http://t.co/QuwgmmxO Jan 13, 2012
  • The value of free enterprise has nothing to do with money or wealth http://t.co/mPHesBRu right 2 ?life, liberty, &the pursuit of happiness.? Jan 13, 2012
  • The lure to leave the euro may prove irresistible http://t.co/upM8V9Hd Better to be Argentina than Latvia. Still better to be the US! $$ Jan 13, 2012
  • Amid downturn, more older Americans employed than ever before http://t.co/BBCCUy0A Retirement will be considered abnormal in the future $$ Jan 13, 2012
  • Americans Clueless, Pay Wall Street $20 Billion for Bad Swaps http://t.co/hCIZwSeY Swaps weren’t problem, Auction rate preferreds were $$ Jan 13, 2012
  • Accounting Quirk Lurks as Wild Card in Banks’ Earnings http://t.co/yfiwHRVs Acctg is best when mkt-based or amortizd cost, not hybrid $$ Jan 13, 2012
  • Little Alarm Shown at Fed At Dawn of Housing Bust http://t.co/HU4b513h FOMC transcripts always highlight how clueless the FOMC is. $$ Jan 13, 2012
  • Fed?s Steps Toward Transparency May Hinder Effort http://t.co/14hSqGs6 With increased data mkts unpredictably wind tighter to Fed policy $$ Jan 13, 2012
  • Here’s something to consider: http://t.co/63fsJc2y The last time ICI updated the FAQ on fund flow? http://t.co/G5XJr24E Jan 13, 2012
Book Review: The Hedge Fund Mirage

Book Review: The Hedge Fund Mirage

In 2003 a financial gun was put to my head, telling me to relocate or be severed.? I took severance because of all the ties my family had to the area.? I landed at a hedge fund near me, one well enough run to be immune to the criticisms of this book.

The first thing you have to understand is that corporate form is not a factor in performance.? It does not matter whether you manage a mutual fund, unit investment trust, hedge fund — what matters are your ideas, not the legal form you inhabit.

But, some of the problems with hedge funds, as a opposed to open-end mutual funds, is that:

1) Many hedge funds go out of business, and as they do, their bad performance is not recorded, and sometimes lost.

2) Hedge funds with good performance give the databases their early performance.? Bad early performance does not get reported.

3) The activity of investors chasing trends is more pronounced in hedge funds than in mutual funds, with a loss of returns of 5% in hedge funds, versus 3% in mutual funds.? This is all due to greater volatility.

4) Double alpha is generally not achievable, because most managers good at longs are not good at shorts, and vice-versa.? Going long and short are different skill sets.

The Author has a lot of experience with hedge funds, having invested with them for many years.? He knows the foibles, the pitfalls, and most of the factors that lead to subpar results.? Above all, he understands that there is no magic to hedge funds.? Just because you call you investment fund a hedge fund does not mean you will deliver market-beating results.

Aside from the book some of the works the book cites are valuable, particularly the work by Dichev and Yu, which deals with how hedge funds do well when they are small and do badly when they are big.? Trend chasing always leads to bad results, and institutional investors are not immune.

Quibbles

None.

Who would benefit from this book: Most investors would benefit from this book.? Particularly those that advise institutional clients and high net worth individuals would benefit. If you want to, you can buy it here: The Hedge Fund Mirage: The Illusion of Big Money and Why It’s Too Good to Be True.

Full disclosure: The publisher asked if I wanted the book.? I said ?yes? and he sent it to me.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

Too Many Par Claims versus Sub-Par Assets

Too Many Par Claims versus Sub-Par Assets

The world is a maze of debt.? Debts layered on debts.

The Earth and its productivity is roughly the same or better than prior years.? What is the problem with the economy then?

The problem is this: there are entities that made bad loans in the past that expect to be paid back in full.? They assumed the future would be far better than it turned out to be.? There is no way that the loans will be paid back in full.? The solution is paying back at a discount, whether through compromise or insolvency.

Wait. Many of the lenders are leveraged as well, and can’t take significant losses.? Paying back at a discount will bankrupt a number of banks, which will in turn bollix the economy.

So, we have to go slow?? Does this bring us back to the problem of how one eats an elephant?? “One bite at a time.”? That is the method of Japan, leaving an over-indebted government, and reasonably indebted private sector.? But it took two decades.

Whether it is in the Euro-zone, China, or America, it would be better to let entities fail, and deal with the mess.? Yes, GDP will drop a lot, but it will rocket out of the troubles 2-3 years out, the way that Eastern Europe did post-Warsaw Pact.

Ending? the economic malaise means ending the debt overhang.? Where is the government, or set of governments willing to attack this and reduce debts economy-wide?? I know it is a tough prescription, but economies don’t work well when they are overindebted.

The Rules, Part XXVIII

The Rules, Part XXVIII

Rebalancing of any sort in investing presumes an underlying stability to the economic system, and thus, market returns.? Rebalancing will not protect against socialism, war, or an overleveraged position.

The concept of rebalancing requires the idea of reversion to mean.? It will not protect you when profound shifts are happening, where the market are moving to a new equilibrium different from the old one.

Many shifts in the markets are precipitous; they don’t allow for slow adjustment.? That’s why many lose out when sharp shifts occur.? Especially in leveraged positions, the question comes: “Do I take my loss, invest more, or just let it ride?”

The best answer is forward-looking, only asking what is most likely.? The best preparation is also forward-looking, but with a glance to the past, asking what could happen at worst, which is worse than the worst of the past.

There are times when it seems that stability is no more, or that the boundaries for stability are far larger than normal, such as now.?? At such a time, it may pay to follow market trends, realizing that there many participants like you that are struggling to figure out the situation that everyone is in.

The point is to be forward-looking.? Ignore the past.? Ask what is most promising over your favored time-horizon.

So when it makes sense, add to a position that has lost money.? When it doesn’t make sense, sell the whole position and realize the loss.? Could this be simpler?

Recent Tweets

Recent Tweets

  • Here’s A Credit Card That Looks To Trap ID Thieves By Making Them Think They’re Clever http://t.co/BjtE1Pcy Thieves that goof get fingered Jan 12, 2012
  • $MSFT Said to Plan Marketing Reorganization That Includes Job Cuts http://t.co/tnmiw372 Cuts s/b a last resort option 4 morale reasons $$ Jan 12, 2012
  • @The_Analyst But, no, I don’t think it will happen. Federal regulators are in bed with those that they regulate. All will claim confidential Jan 12, 2012
  • @The_Analyst They should at least be as good as the appointed life actuaries who have to hand the risk model over in full to the regulators. Jan 12, 2012
  • Big ETFs likely to get bigger http://t.co/sMV3gXRB Makes sense; broad aggregate asset class exposures should have large ETFs to implement $$ Jan 12, 2012
  • Vikram Pandit Is on the Right Track http://t.co/W1nKvtrV Banks should make their risk models & data bases public; indep ests validate them Jan 12, 2012
  • Greek Crisis Dries Up Drug Supply http://t.co/6adxylUd This is one of the sadder things about the Eurozone crisis $$ Even aspirin gone Jan 12, 2012
  • This Winter’s Weirdly Warm Weather Explained http://t.co/QwmcdVCT The Arctic & North Atlantic Oscillations explain the drastic difference $$ Jan 11, 2012
  • Red Kite Evangelicals Reap 47% on Copper Bet http://t.co/ZEKFYRtF Doing well? Doing good? Why choose? Jan 11, 2012
  • The great hedge fund humbling of 2011 http://t.co/CAJPuxZD Average fund dropping 4.8% & some stock-focused funds down 19% on average $$ Jan 11, 2012
  • @MarcHochstein True. Almost every bubble leaves something good behind; think of all the dark fiber laid in the early 2000s now being used $$ Jan 11, 2012
  • Awaiting a Greek Payout http://t.co/YrjsFuIb Could Greece?s next rescue payout go straight into the pockets of London hedge funds? $$ #yes Jan 11, 2012
  • Insurers Lifting Rates as Storms Defy Models http://t.co/SF6gQeWf After disasters, well-capitalized insurers benefit from rising premiums Jan 11, 2012
  • Building Skyscrapers Signals Excess, Forecasts Crashes, says Barclays http://t.co/PzkWBb81 Overly cheap capital creates white elephants $$ Jan 11, 2012
  • Yale’s Crash Confidence Index Shows Just How Fearful Investors Have Become http://t.co/eL3jG5j4 Short-term bullish indicator $$ Jan 11, 2012
  • Gen Y: Post Traumatic Stock Syndrome http://t.co/jMmRDwI6 In order to make $$ in the markets, you must survive the bad times. $$ Jan 11, 2012
  • Europe?s $39T Pension Threat Grows http://t.co/HHGm0NcV and in the US: Social Security – January 2012 and Beyond http://t.co/WrElghGi $$ Jan 11, 2012
  • Europe Banks Hoarding Cash Resist Draghi http://t.co/X2yqiTdR Euro-area banks have more than 600 billion euros of debt maturing this year Jan 11, 2012
  • An Imaginary Dustup? The Incalculable Harm of Regulation http://t.co/cB7j2N6e Agricultural regulations anger a farmer; he explains the cost Jan 11, 2012
Recent Tweets

Recent Tweets

  • Turkey Said to Tell India Help on Iran Oil Payments May End http://t.co/smdFrxQK Lot of second order effects from the Iran embargo. $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • EU Is Said to Consider Iran Oil-Embargo Exemptions Rather Than Blanket Ban http://t.co/12qgDjBD Mainly to help Greece, Italy & ENI $E $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • @D_T_A_F Well, they’ve been doing it consistently since the beginning of QE, at which point they changed their OMO methods. U might b right. Jan 10, 2012
  • Italy Is Biggest Risk to Euro, Says Fitch http://t.co/hNct22ZO E-Zone cannot survive if 3rd largest member can’t maintain financing $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • U.S. Inquiry of MF Global Gains Speed http://t.co/SVxElxzI The key might be the actions of the Treasurer prior to the bankruptcy $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • @groditi FM Global is still around http://t.co/7JE2tl9D MF Global is not. My inner insurance nerd is showing. FMG is a great company. $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • THE WORLD?S MOST PROSPEROUS BANK http://t.co/2jOeSujR Remember, that the national creditworthiness that the Fed is using to generate the $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • Geithner Presses China on Iran http://t.co/cL7KcKZp Tough sell; 11% of oil used from Iran http://t.co/FWLf6mXC & http://t.co/3tNMilGQ $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • @D_T_A_F Mmmm…. so they want people to think long-run inflation will be higher than otherwise? That’s not what they usually want. $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • Avoiding Innovation’s Terrible Toll http://t.co/Y20HSLrk Set up a new unit to creatively destroy your old one, before anyone else $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • Why does the Fed buy the longest TIPS? Scarcity -> Higher price -> lower real yield -> higher inflation expectations http://t.co/VOIG2gUk $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • RE: @iheartWallSt Desk commentary.? Escapes the strictures one must follow for “research.”? Can say what you want the? http://t.co/mUVhA0JQ Jan 10, 2012
  • Even Ron Paul Can?t Save America From Fiscal Disaster http://t.co/l6ldUddF Americans ask 4 the impossible; problem not politicians but us Jan 10, 2012
  • Buffett?s Apprentice Books Gains on First Buys http://t.co/j7R3j4Lg Purchases of 7 stox by Combs in the 9 mos ended 9/30 advanced ~14% $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • SEC Seeks Full Disclosure of Banks? Sovereign Debt Holdings http://t.co/B5sYTqCs Note: the banks only have to do this if they want to $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • An Exit Strategy From the Euro http://t.co/4K6DI0ZE It would benefit Europe in the long run to have macro flexibility back. $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • A Boom in Starter Capital for Hedge Funds http://t.co/uTvaIJ1c Excess cash seeks: diversification, flexibility, special ideas, returns $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • Gina Raimondo Math Convinces Rhode Island of America?s Prospects With Debt http://t.co/ZMjbs2IW Nixon: China :: Dems : pub pension cuts $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • The Danger Debt Poses to the Western World http://t.co/Wfnf1d1E A German take on the global mess of extend & pretend. Long, but gets it $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • Where to look for ideas in Distressed Investing? http://t.co/eDnCO7QA Hunter covers the bases; shows us the areas where he looks 4 value $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • The Global Impact of a China Hard Landing http://t.co/CQcfMH8Y Could be significant, to some degree China drives the world economically. $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • Why Europe stocks are too cheap to ignore http://t.co/6cGcyuKd It’s difficult to lose money on cheap companies w/low debt. $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • Speculators Raise Wagers on Price Gains by Most in 17 Months http://t.co/7Qosgt0H The risk-on trade proceeds; whether it succeeds?… $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • More U.S. Part-Timers Find Full-Time Jobs http://t.co/9CtmJbX6 Reluctantly, I am getting less pessimistic. $$ Jan 10, 2012
  • Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built?and what we can do about it http://t.co/Ko5Eri0b ht: Michael Pettis Jan 09, 2012
  • But this buttresses my contention that hedge funds, aside from global macro and CTAs, hate volatility.? Anyone that w? http://t.co/snQjCYh7 Jan 09, 2012
  • @groditi That’s fine, thanks for the effort. Jan 09, 2012
  • @groditi I can see how you can get the $VXX historical prices, but not those of the VXX options. Jan 09, 2012
  • @The_Analyst That’s the reason why I think unionized jobs don’t get destroyed by foreign competition, but by technology $$ Jan 09, 2012
  • The Great Leading Indicator Smackdown http://t.co/EwNbt7NJ ECRI is a black box, but they usually do better at forecasting than the LEI $$ Jan 09, 2012
  • Corporate Profit Growth Slows as Europe Drags http://t.co/KyieZhsW Profit margins meeting the force of gravity, from punk demand $$ Jan 09, 2012
  • Correlation Nation (lets go to the charts) http://t.co/egTJ4iOb Bifurcated market boils down to liquidity/certainty vs not $$ #riskonriskoff Jan 09, 2012
  • China December Loans, Money Supply Signal Easing Conditions http://t.co/pT2WqTbR Please reflate the real estate market, please, please $$ Jan 09, 2012
  • China loan growth quickens http://t.co/FbKZVW4l With asset prices falling, China attempts to reflate through monetary policy $$ Jan 09, 2012
  • Pension reform welcome, but bankrupt Illinois needs more http://t.co/sp6xAzGF Retroactive repeal of ill-gotten benefits ->test constitution Jan 09, 2012
  • State finance officials should face the truth on pension promises http://t.co/CYYQ73Ad CA pension liabs > reported, reliant on hi inv return Jan 09, 2012
  • Merkozy On the Verge of Losing Sarkozy http://t.co/tu1j68Fu For that matter, Merkel is not that secure politically either $$ Jan 09, 2012
  • It’s a Man vs. Machine Recovery http://t.co/dt2uJnn2 Companies have been buying technology instead of hiring, and Okun’s Law is broken $$ Jan 09, 2012
  • On Trading Central Tendency http://t.co/x92jkx2Z @brucekrasting has too much fun showing how more transparency by the Fed could backfire $$ Jan 09, 2012
  • Top business leaders including Pimco’s Bill Gross support Ron Paul http://t.co/AFxAuF3t I find this surprising & I’m not sure I believe it. Jan 09, 2012
  • Shale Bubble Inflates on Near-Record Prices http://t.co/derIaWa0 Current land prices rely on fracking not being curtailed by regulation $$ Jan 09, 2012
  • Germany Auctions Bills With Negative Yield http://t.co/pUXUcGaU Never a good sign with too much demand for liquidity & certainty $$ Jan 09, 2012
  • Paulson After Worst Year Takes Cue From Griffin Climbing Back http://t.co/a324XoAj Very difficult to achieve, even for Griffin. $$ Jan 09, 2012
  • It’s not that machines are destroying jobs; they are making some jobs obsolete as productivity rises.? There is a nee? http://t.co/03IYCHhH Jan 09, 2012
  • Hedge Fund Returns In 2011 http://t.co/O89qAtlY Dismal year, what else? Make me feel better about my returns… $$ http://t.co/AxznD8LD Jan 07, 2012
  • Eastman Kodak Shares, Bonds Hammered on Bankruptcy-Prep Report http://t.co/5Ct7mA9I Bonds trading at $30; what if the patents r worth $$ Jan 07, 2012
  • David Rubin Pleads Guilty in Muni-Bond Trial http://t.co/wNZUGsgY I knew this guy back in my GIC-selling days. Couldn’t get his bizmodel Jan 07, 2012
  • I really appreciated this paper because it clarified a number of issues for me regarding repo. One thing they missed? http://t.co/zYq0U5ow Jan 07, 2012
  • Fed?s New Wordplay to Yield Negligible Results http://t.co/QprfJ6e1 @cabaum Transparency is good. Talk is cheap. It won?t do much harm. $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • New Markets Movement: Bring Back the IPOs http://t.co/Q7G8SazO Will take a lot more than changing the tick size to create more entrepreneurs Jan 06, 2012
  • Alcoa to Cut Smelting Capacity by 12% http://t.co/HTmIN0iY Given startup/shutdown costs, implies lower extimated level of global growth $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • How Art History Majors Power the US Economy http://t.co/6bNzBvyg Disagree. Best thinkers r all-arounds, who can write, calc, code, etc $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • US Universities Feast on Federal Student Aid http://t.co/1QYSJ6Hs Most of the subsidies for College r captured by colleges not students $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • Dementia?s First Signs May Appear by Age 45 http://t.co/ECLv3Jte Starts slow & picks up speed. Can’t remember the rest $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • Australia?s Strength Questioned by Philip Bowring http://t.co/diETnNpY Commodity producers vulnerable to a global slowdown. Also leverage $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • Italy Last Among Libya?s ?Friends? for New Oil Concessions http://t.co/4r5yKJol Libya?s ?friends? in order: France, US, Britain & Italy $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • Death-Defying Metal Thieves Tap Soaring Prices as U.K. Tightens Sales Law http://t.co/03octIHD Many don’t defy death successfully $$ #RIP Jan 06, 2012
Two Reasons for Life Insurance

Two Reasons for Life Insurance

A reader wrote to me:

I periodically read your blog and it seems like you have a strong grasp of the insurance industry. ?As well, given your background as a life actuary I imagine you might have some valuable insights on whole-life products. ?I am having a baby in the late spring and have been considering the right composition of my life insurance coverage (term vs. whole life), and have thus far had a lot of trouble making sense of the whole life math and why it is a compelling option for me. ?I have received quite a lot of data from an insurance broker with the IRR’s, cash surrender values at different periods, etc., but unfortunately can only get this data in PDF form without really understanding the assumptions behind how the cash surrender value grows, or how the dividends get calculated. ?In short, I have been unable to come to a more developed thesis than the idea that whole life is just a way to lock yourself in to a middling return while the insurance company benefits from your float and makes a spread off you, while taking insurance company credit risk for decades, with some benefit in the ability to pass down a decent amount of money tax free to one’s kids when they die. ?

How do you view whole life, do you own any yourself? ?If so, I’d love to understand your logic. ?I recently re-read part of Buffett’s 94 letter in which he states how he buys whole life policies from people about to stop paying premiums for more than the cash surrender value and can only surmise that somehow at the point he is buying them there is probably a higher IRR than in the beginning of the policy (which makes sense given the math I have seen.) ??

I am skeptical because I can’t figure out the answer, which makes me not inclined to lock myself in to a life-long financial commitment with an institution that might not be around in 70 years.

For most of my life, I have had term insurance.? It was cheap, and protected my wife against an untimely death of me when we were less-than-well-off.? At present, we are uninsured on my life because my wife has enough assets that if I die, she can fund the educations of the remaining kids, and live thereafter, with perhaps some work on her part.? She’s really bright, but who would be smart enough to hire her?

In general, I think it is smart for young people to buy 20 or 30-year term insurance.? It takes care of the period where your family is most vulnerable.? You get coverage when you are young and healthy, because you don’t know what tomorrow will bring.? Then save and invest to build up assets to meet the needs you may have when the term policy runs out.? If you still need insurance at that point, and are healthy, get underwritten again for a new policy.

There is one place where a whole life policy can make sense. Sometimes mutual insurers use a portfolio method for interest rate crediting. In an environment like this, where interest rates have fallen so much, that means they are crediting to new money the same rate that they are getting old money. That is quite a bonus, so if you can find that, it may prove to be cheaper than getting a long term insurance policy.

As for the second reason to buy life insurance, it is one of the most enduring ways to scam the taxman.? Death benefits are not taxed by the states or the federal government, and unless the person dying was the policy?s owner it is immune from estate tax.

This creates a wide number of vehicles that wealthy people use together with annuities and trusts to transfer wealth out of their estate, and into death benefit proceeds that will pass to their heirs outside their estate.

This is one reason why I believe the estate tax has to go. It does not accomplish its stated ends. The wealthy find all manner of clever ways to escape it. It would be far better to eliminate the ability to shelter income from taxation while they are living. Besides, the government needs the money now.

Closing Points

?First, don’t worry about the credit risk, within limits, the state guarantee funds stand behind the insurance companies. For most people that should be enough.

Second, as for Buffett buying life policies, this is done only when an investor buys a policy from someone who is expected to live less long than the actuarial tables would’ve predicted at the time of policy issuance. The policy is more valuable than the cash surrender value; the investor attempts to make money off the difference.

This is a controversial area, and I am generally against the practice. It should not be legal; it endangers the tax favored status of life insurance, because it allows people without an insurable interest to benefit from the proceeds of life policy. That said, the market would go away if insurers were willing to deal more favorably with those who have impaired lives, and want to cash out their insurance policy.

Third, I have run into really advanced methods for scamming the taxman that involve asset-backed securities, trusts, and what else? Life insurance. In general, I think the U.S. Treasury should use their anti-abuse rules in order to invalidate these transactions, because they lack true economic purpose. That is, even if they are structured in such a way as to give the appearance of economic purpose, there is no reason that a businessman in his right mind would structure the business in that way, except to avoid taxes.

Finally, remember that the agent has a different motive than you. He wants to earn a commission. Commissions are low, and prices are easily comparable on term policies. There are services that will even do the comparison for you. The only way that an insurance agent will earn high commission is by selling a policy that is complex, not comparable to other policies, and builds up assets. The insurance company pays a high commission on such policies because they can earn investment returns off of the excess premiums that you pay in relative to a term policy.

Stock Idea Series

Stock Idea Series

Every now and then an idea strikes me, and I wonder if it would be worth trying.? Here’s one: much of the stuff that passes for analysis of stocks on the web leaves me cold.? It feels like a computer spit out a few ratios, with standard verbiage.

What if I chose some stocks at random, and analyzed them?

I set up a random selector for 10 stocks relative to their market capitalization.? My first group of 10 came out as follows:

  1. Sun Life Financial Inc. (USA)
  2. Vodafone Group Plc (ADR)
  3. ORIX Corporation (ADR)
  4. C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
  5. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone C
  6. Ms&Ad Insurance Group Holding
  7. National Grid plc (ADR)
  8. Greenhill & Co., Inc.
  9. Carnival Corporation
  10. TTM Technologies, Inc.

I’ve heard of #10, but don’t know what it does.? I have not heard of #6, despite my knowledge of the insurance industry.? The other 8 I know something about.? My inclination would be to go for the ones I know nothing about.? Odds are there is no coverage of them at all, at least in the US.? I would likely choose #6.? So what is it?

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. is a Japan-based holding company. Through its subsidiaries and associated companies, the Company operates four business segments in both domestic and overseas markets. The Domestic Non-Life Insurance segment is engaged in non-life insurance businesses. The Domestic Life Insurance segment is engaged in the life insurance businesses. The Overseas segment is engaged in the overseas related businesses. The Financial Service and Risk Related segment is involved in two divisions. The financial service division is engaged in the asset management, financial security, 401 k, alternative risk transfer (ART), personal loan and venture capital businesses. The risk related service division is engaged in the risk management, nursing care and asset evaluation businesses, among others. As of March 31, 2011, the Company had 121 subsidiaries and 28 associated companies.

It’s not a small company.? The market cap is $11 billion.? This one seems complex — looks like fun. 🙂

Run the random selector again, and I get this:

  1. Gladstone Commercial Corporati
  2. Alliant Techsystems Inc.
  3. Cemex SAB de CV (ADR)
  4. 3D Systems Corporation
  5. Canandaigua National Corporati
  6. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company
  7. PHI Inc.
  8. Royal Bank of Canada (USA)
  9. Edison International
  10. Rayonier Inc.

I know something about 7 out of 10. Numbers 1, 4, and 5 are a mystery to me, and respectively, they are a REIT, a 3D printer company, and a small bank holding company.? I would probably choose #4 for the analysis, because it is more fun for me to analyze a nonfinancial company.? Maybe I should choose differently because I understand financials better than many.? Advice is requested.

I filter out companies with less than $10 million of market cap, and CEFs & ETFs.? Now, I’m not sure how much time it would take me to write these out.? If it’s too much, I won’t do it.? But if I did do it, how much interest would you have?

Now, the natural inclination is for those with some interest to write me, and those with no interest to be silent.? I’d really like to hear from those with no interest.? Regardless, let me know in the comments section.? Thanks.

Industry Ranks January 2012

Industry Ranks January 2012

I?m working on my quarterly reshaping ? where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio.? The first part of this is industry analysis.

My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic.? Green industries are cold.? Red industries are hot.? If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the question, ?Where are trends under-discounted??? Price momentum tends to persist, but look for areas where it might be even better in the near term.

If you are a value player, look at the green zone, and ask where trends are over-discounted.? Yes, things are bad, but are they all that bad?? Perhaps the is room for mean reversion.

My candidates from both categories are in the column labeled ?Dig through.?

If you use any of this, choose what you use off of your own trading style.? If you trade frequently, stay in the red zone.? Trading infrequently, play in the green zone ? don?t look for momentum, look for mean reversion.

Whatever you do, be consistent in your methods regarding momentum/mean-reversion, and only change methods if your current method is working well.

Huh?? Why change if things are working well?? I?m not saying to change if things are working well.? I?m saying don?t change if things are working badly.? Price momentum and mean-reversion are cyclical, and we tend to make changes at the worst possible moments, just before the pattern changes.? Maximum pain drives changes for most people, which is why average investors don?t make much money.

Maximum pleasure when things are going right leaves investors fat, dumb, and happy ? no one thinks of changing then.? This is why a disciplined approach that forces changes on a portfolio is useful, as I do 3-4 times a year.? It forces me to be bloodless and sell stocks with less potential for those with more potential over the next 1-5 years.

I like some technology names here, some energy some healthcare-related names, P&C Insurance and Reinsurance, particularly those that are strongly capitalized.? I?m not concerned about the healthcare bill; necessary services will be delivered, and healthcare companies will get paid.

A word on banks and REITs: the credit cycle has not been repealed, and there are still issues unresolved from the last cycle ? I am not interested there even at present levels.? The modest unwind currently happening in the credit markets, if it expands, would imply significant issues for banks and their ?regulators.?

I?m looking for undervalued and stable industries.? I?m not saying that there is always a bull market out there, and I will find it for you.? But there are places that are relatively better, and I have done relatively well in finding them.

At present, I am trying to be defensive.? I don?t have a lot of faith in the market as a whole, so I am biased toward the green zone, looking for mean-reversion, rather than momentum persisting.? The red zone is pretty cyclical at present.? I will be very happy hanging out in dull stocks for a while.

P&C Insurers and Reinsurers Look Cheap

After the heavy disaster year of 2011, P&C insurers and reinsurers look cheap.? Many trade below tangible book, and at single-digit P/Es, which has always been a strong area for me, if the companies are well-capitalized, which they are.

I already own a spread of well-run, inexpensive P&C insurers & reinsurers.? Would I increase the overweight here?? Yes, I might, because I view the group as absolutely cheap; it could make me money even in a down market.? Now, I would do my series of analyses such that I would be happy with the reserving and the investing policies of each insurer, but after that, I would be willing to add to my holdings.

Do your own due diligence on this, because I am often wrong.? One more note, I am still not tempted by banks or real estate related stocks.? I am beginning to wonder when the right time to buy them as a sector is.? As for that, I am open to advice.

Recent Tweets

Recent Tweets

  • I don’t think changing the tick size will change the fact that there are games surrounding trading.? It will change w? http://t.co/XXnyKemI Jan 06, 2012
  • When Nurses Catch Compassion Fatigue, Patients Suffer http://t.co/54tvbIQV Programs being created/used to help nurses avoid burnout $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • ‘ @mbusigin Okay, so about 2% up, not bad. That’s usually pretty correlated with short rates, but not now. $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • @mbusigin @fundmyfund How strongly? There is a lot of single-family housing available for rent, which should hold rates down. Jan 06, 2012
  • The sinkhole http://t.co/DTW4vtDm DB plans 4 companies in the broadly-based S&P 1500, the deficit rose from $315 billion to $484 billion $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • Apartment Vacancy Rate falls to 5.2% in Q4, Lowest since 2001 http://t.co/6E2rL2CZ Will it eventually lead to increases in rental rates? $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • Flip This Economy http://t.co/0LBARLcQ A new study shows how short-term speculators made the housing bubble much, much worse. $$ Jan 06, 2012
  • Not Even Corp Mgmt Believe Their Own Equity Return Assumptions http://t.co/AdkRWujq With rates so low stocks must earn monster returns 2fund Jan 05, 2012
  • Sweden Shows Europe How to Cut Debt, Weather the Recession http://t.co/R9VBpkSL Monetary independence is the most important Swedish lesson Jan 05, 2012
  • The Public Deposit Option: An Alternative To ?Regulate and Insure? Banking http://t.co/Fvo6q2TJ Turn banks into deposit utilities, maybe? $$ Jan 05, 2012
  • China: the vultures are coming http://t.co/uyn6U7OV Distressed investing in China not straightforward; Does not have a clear rule of law Jan 05, 2012
  • China No Country for Old Men as Government Battles ?Demographic Tsunami? http://t.co/7pU1JqCz The “one child policy” hammers at China $$ Jan 05, 2012
  • Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Risks http://t.co/zih7AS0e As the monetary base rises, so does the price of gold? Seems to. $$ Jan 05, 2012
  • No:EU lawmaker turns up heat on US over bank rules http://t.co/Gs5rvupn Banks should not use their own models 2 mark positions, set capital Jan 05, 2012
  • Gavekal on Japanese Debt Scenarios http://t.co/fsqvKx8A Likes Japanese equities combined with protection against the currency & bonds $$ Jan 05, 2012
  • Macro Imploding http://t.co/iokKGr6h It’s just a matter of time before we abandon concepts like the monetary and fiscal multipliers. $$ Jan 05, 2012
  • @groditi I think that might be driving some of the negative earnings guidance revisions, but no one connects the dots. Jan 04, 2012
  • RT @groditi: @AlephBlog I see very little mention of how high FCFs due to depressed capex /wc could translate to depressed/delayed earni … Jan 04, 2012
  • Bond Exotica Gains Favor in Era of Low Rates http://t.co/jBOGzNJt I would worry, but we’re probably nearer the beginning than the end $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • @TraderNewsFeed I respect your opinion; let’s see what happens, I very well could be wrong, and you right. Jan 04, 2012
  • Equity Risk Premium Near An Extreme http://t.co/R1cYReUa Relies on the idea that profit margins will not mean-revert. $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • @TraderNewsFeed in 2nd and 3rd tier city residential real estate markets. http://t.co/yVjV9Fa4 & http://t.co/mOq9JrjB 2/2 Jan 04, 2012
  • @TraderNewsFeed You don’t get large moves in asset prices w/o debt-finance. The LTVs may be lower, but px moves have inverted borrowers 1/2 Jan 04, 2012
  • Pawnbrokers of last resort: when a pound of flesh is not enough http://t.co/yA3I0eZ8 Secured lending heightens risk when collateral falls Jan 04, 2012
  • China?s Home Prices Slide Amid Speculation of Reserve Ratio Cut http://t.co/2NJHYrZx Leverage collapse cannot b solved in ordinary ways $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • Chinese President Hu Jintao warns of cultural warfare from West http://t.co/lyOVkowA Difficult 2 channel prosperity away from freer thinking Jan 04, 2012
  • Refinancing Race to Dominate Third Year of Crisis: Euro Credit http://t.co/OwRkKSCe Lots of room 4 slips&stumbles in the 1Q12 refinancing $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • I just keep buying value stocks; worked in the Great Depression; should work now. http://t.co/JLv5g3Re Jan 04, 2012
  • Who are the most central members of the China?s leadership as we enter 2012? http://t.co/wwt0VY6X Interesting analysis of connections $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • Fed Will Detail Rate Plans, Easing Market Guesswork http://t.co/RNWNk8Wn More transparency will bring more volatility, not less $$ #ppht Jan 04, 2012
  • Downward revision on home sales data? http://t.co/uDhRiBVE NAR large revision down sales numbers 4 past several yrs going back to 2007 $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • Bond Bulls May Yet Have Reason for Cheer http://t.co/Qk3EQDfA When I see this argument get more common, I worry about a reversal $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • Mary Schapiro’s skeletons in the closet http://t.co/TeGlvBqK Alleges proxy used by NASD soliciting member approval 4 the merger fraudulent Jan 04, 2012
  • @ReformedBroker Wait. You used “value” and “Eastman Kodak” in the same sentence. Not allowed. Did Bill Miller get the memo? $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • NYSE Liffe US Announces DTCC GCF Repo Index Futures http://t.co/9JpHjbu7 ht @izakaminska; may allow for hedging of future repo rates $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • @izakaminska I suppose the GCF Repo Index Futures settle for cash. My Q: What are the systemic implications of hedging future repo rates? $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • The collateral crunch gets monetary http://t.co/rGlB3N7z Monetary multiplier collapsing in Eurozone. Protect solvency, do not lend. $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • ?Princeling? General Attracts Notice with Criticism of Party http://t.co/4ZnfegKp Do children earn their own way or can parents help? $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • Buffett?s Defense Fails to Beat S&P 500 in ?11 http://t.co/BLynhyuo Buffett is doing fine. Just watch the growth in book value. $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • World?s Biggest Economies Face $7.6T Debt http://t.co/lVdUlLng Rollover risk in 2012. Who can see the tipping point 4 sustainability? $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • Bridgewater Takes Grim View of 2012 http://t.co/WeP3QYw7 Deleveraging bodes ill 4 most asset classes except long duration high quality Jan 04, 2012
  • Iranian currency slides under latest U.S. sanctions http://t.co/99wYHIGq The sanctions do have some bite, average people in Iran hurt more Jan 04, 2012
  • @PieFarmer No. Hedgies that try 2 arb r trying to collect a risky yield. As vol rises, that gets harder 2 do. $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • For Europe, Bad to Worse http://t.co/4DfbYeWl Likely Recession, Continuing Debt Woe May Make ’12 a Tougher Slog Than ’11 $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • Why Hedge Funds Tripped in a Volatile Year http://t.co/y0H4HqVw In aggregate, hedge funds r yield seekers & r hurt by volatility $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • Regulators Fleeing Ratings Dodd-Frank Banned Embrace No-Risk Greek Bonds http://t.co/6UGoNV2t Regulators go from one ditch into another $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • the haircut http://t.co/KfqiOplW @researchpuzzler on the need to have a margin of safety built into all investment assumptions $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • Tail Risk and Embalming Fluid, in 2012 http://t.co/BtBzo2Ey Argues that we will not be able to grow out of the debts incurred by gov’ts. $$ Jan 04, 2012
  • Brace Yourself For An Eventful 2012 http://t.co/hCcauPUR Makes the case that Germany could leave the euro in 2012 & hurt CHF in process Jan 04, 2012
  • @DonMartinCFP Thanks, Don — so you look at this? http://t.co/ErnQtMXd Jan 04, 2012
  • Muni Bonds http://t.co/y8fuhimH There are long term difficulties, but taxes will be raised and benefits cut. Muni bonds will do fine. $$ Jan 03, 2012
  • Auld Lang Syne: Remembering 2011 http://t.co/ctFUISOD Damodaran points out how high the equity premium is now. Makes me more bullish $$ Jan 03, 2012
  • @The_Analyst If you leave it all in the cash account, yes, if not, no. Which makes sames day liquidity a problem; three day lags… Jan 03, 2012
  • Political Calendar Hints at 2012 Volatility http://t.co/8kH5seL5 2012 likely to be a volatile year, much as 2011 was $$ Jan 03, 2012
  • Are Brokerage Accounts Safe? http://t.co/QBXChAvg We should press to eliminate the ability to rehypothecate using customer capital $$ Jan 03, 2012
  • @YooDman I agree w/you, but if the generals could get along w/o KJ Un, they would have done so already. This would try to pull KJU away… Jan 03, 2012
  • If I were Secretary of State, I would find out what Rock groups & basketball players Mr Un Kim likes & send several goodwill delegations. $$ Jan 03, 2012
  • Banker Who Fled Kim Jong Il Says New Leader to Open N. Korea http://t.co/cX4jHROu “Swiss education & his reported fondness 4 basketball” Jan 03, 2012
  • Paul Sees Top-Two Finish in Iowa While Wary of Backing Rivals http://t.co/4elw3fqP Has the least trouble with Romney, but can’t endorse $$ Jan 03, 2012
  • @DonMartinCFP What change in conditions would lead you to allocate money away from bonds? Jan 03, 2012
Theme: Overlay by Kaira