US Economy

 

• Two bright spots in the US Economy: Manufacturing http://t.co/ypyMuQ6D Oil & Gas http://t.co/kMqYETNa Is housing next? $$ #cyclicals Feb 09, 2012
• @The_Analyst That’s one reason why I typically don’t comment on nonfarm payrolls; calculation of the number is complex; hard to analyze. $$ Feb 08, 2012
• Farmers Plan Biggest Crops Since 1984, Led by Corn http://t.co/fpS3Ftys Farmers put Vegas to shame when it comes to risk. #rolldembones $$ Feb 08, 2012
• Total Says SunPower Can Withstand China Solar Panel Competition http://t.co/oWPxaYrZ FD: long $TOT ; Watch other solar companies fold $$ Feb 07, 2012
• American exposure http://t.co/bI6FR9hp What r the odds that continued European crisis will throw sand in2 the gears of America’s recovery? Feb 07, 2012
• I think CR is right if we limit it to the housing that the GSEs lend on; I don’t think it is true of the… http://t.co/9bjWKPPQ Feb 07, 2012

 

Eurozone

 

• A few thoughts about the Euro snafu? http://t.co/IVQ525GO The cost of Greece leaving the Euro would be very high? but so is the status quo. Feb 10, 2012
• Inside the Head of Mario Draghi http://t.co/2LkA1ZUL Favors large banks and an expanded role for central institutions in the Eurozone $$ Feb 10, 2012
• On Banknotes http://t.co/LghRIk35 Of safe boxes & paper money, particularly 1000 CHF-notes. Quick, hide $$ 4 a store of value against chaos! Feb 10, 2012
• Graphic detail: European banks five-year subordinated CDS http://t.co/HQI1njNf HT @Alea_ The LTRO has decreased EZ-bank CDS & raised stocks. Feb 10, 2012
• Euro Finance Chiefs to Defer on Greece http://t.co/okFLAYbb They await the deeds, rather than hearing the words $$ Feb 09, 2012
• Sarkozy Most Unpopular as Election Nears Confronting Unprecedented Rebound http://t.co/PAn88rE0 Broader EZ effects: policy disagreements Feb 09, 2012
• Homeowners Who Would Be Moguls Make Comeback in UK http://t.co/cdCxHeyo Back a lot sooner than I expected or hoped. Spec leverage rises $$ Feb 09, 2012
• UK Failure, Contagion, and Musings on Switzerland http://t.co/wIFZlcO9 Euro Banking crisis -> Swiss crisis -> like Iceland ^ Banks/GDP $$ Feb 09, 2012
• European repo has been contained! http://t.co/rzFKRou2 The ink on the LTRO is still wet, what happens when it the refi date comes? $$ Feb 09, 2012
• Europe Crisis Cuts at French Welfare State http://t.co/5bCYU6QI Pretty gloomy article. No wonder Sarkozy is doing badly in the polls. $$ Feb 09, 2012
• Merkel Approval at Highest Level Since ?09 http://t.co/xHazv1AZ Coalition wouldn?t have a governing majority if elections were held now $$ Feb 08, 2012
• Irish Urge Children to Leave as Export Gain Masks Lost Jobs http://t.co/StOYG2xi Perhaps we should call this the Irish export jobs famine. Feb 07, 2012
• Denmark?s Credit Crunch Worsening as Retrenching Banks Spur Vicious Circle http://t.co/fU8kf1c0 What did Soros say? http://t.co/ShMY4LWN Feb 07, 2012

 

Quantitative Investing/Methods

 

• @kyles09 Where do you get figures for implied correlation? Pretty certain the figure I cited was for realized. Feb 10, 2012
• Jeremy Grantham’s investing strategies for 2012 http://t.co/eOgHqgth Favors: Quality & Value stocks, developed mkts. Dis: Bonds & Emerg mkts Feb 10, 2012
• Defensive Stocks Lose First Time Since 1999 as Equities Resume Bull Market http://t.co/LlGPWxFs Odd, but telling of how surprised most are Feb 09, 2012
• @tomkeene Simple ARMA models are used by those that have no structural model, & r highly subject to abuse, torturing data to make it confess Feb 09, 2012
• The Inner Broker Resurfaces http://t.co/raWp25LN Correlations r down. Stock-picking returns. But why have correlations fallen? Ideas? $$ Feb 09, 2012
• @DavidSchawel @PlanMaestro When I ran option hedging auctions among inv banks, we got the best execution when we limited the # & went AON $$ Feb 09, 2012
• Technical indicators point to need for caution http://t.co/3KxlReTy I’ve been selling little by little into the rally. $$ Feb 09, 2012
• Contra: PRESENTING: The Great Market Disconnect Seen All Around The Globe http://t.co/qGlUl0qq No reason y they should b connected $$ Feb 08, 2012
• A Market Timing Rule that Works http://t.co/ntVw7hiz Volatility timing reduces portfolio volatility by 1/3 w/o sacrificing total return $$ Feb 08, 2012
• Contra: Is the 4% Rule Still Viable? http://t.co/Qz85NqIt I expected better from Smartmoney; a 4%/yr distribution is liberal if anything Feb 08, 2012
• Stocks are cheap! http://t.co/AOezqb95 Expensive! http://t.co/e9kVzPgh Comes down to your view on where profit margins are going $$ Feb 08, 2012
• Dividends Are All The Rage ? The Clamour For Equity Yield http://t.co/pC1nlWVJ Low growing dividends w/strong BalSht is the preferred combo Feb 08, 2012
• Hedge Fund profits flow mostly to Industry Insiders http://t.co/I73p7vUK W/2 & 20%, it takes a lot of gross returns 2 give big net 2 clients Feb 07, 2012
• Contra: Junk Bonds Still Offer Margin for Error http://t.co/NW6q32fa When Tsy rates r low, normal junk spreads s/b higher & reflect risk Feb 07, 2012
• Buy growth and inflation hedge vehicles http://t.co/0q0QoqlD Model moves from neutral to Inflation. Commodity prices jumpy of late $$ #boing Feb 07, 2012

Fed Policy / Banking

 

• Fed’s ‘Operation Twist’ Tangles Treasury Trade http://t.co/nxCMTCqa Fed has acquired 20-30Y Tsys = 91% of new issuance post-Twist. $$ Feb 10, 2012
• Banks Not Off Hook With $25B Mortgage Agreement http://t.co/Q6ObUnyA Only takes care of securitization, & not origination/underwriting $$ Feb 10, 2012
• Why Dodd-Frank has already failed http://t.co/CZm7qnoP Regulators didn’t use their tools in the last boom, so better tools won’t help. $$ Feb 09, 2012
• Bernanke Talks His Book http://t.co/romgydli Inflation implied by TIPS has been rising over the last four months, w/Ben Bernanke silent $$ Feb 09, 2012
• Investors too complacent with the Fed?s pledge? http://t.co/G7c1yKDV Volatility on a number of swaptions r multiple standard devs cheap $$ Feb 08, 2012
• Global liquidity fail ? the role of skewed incentives http://t.co/Ehgu0Ajm Liquidity is more tenuous when leverage is layered $$ #dominos Feb 08, 2012
• Bernanke Economy Shows Critics Wrong on Fed http://t.co/18CYlDZc Too early. Sterilized base money takes 5-7 years 2 produce inflation $$ Feb 08, 2012
• The Fed’s next hike will come at the end of 2014 http://t.co/UNW0mo0g Too definite. The economy is always more volatile than expected $$ Feb 08, 2012
• The Fed Votes No Confidence http://t.co/qps0mbbD Charles Schwab argues that overly loose Fed policy unnerves economic decisionmakers $$ Feb 07, 2012
• Banks Pay Homeowners to Avoid Foreclosures http://t.co/t8xQpEq7 ‘Bout time. Now we can clear the decks on the low end of housing $$ Feb 07, 2012

 

Politics / Governement

 

• Judge Suggests US Misled Court on Immigration Policy http://t.co/jaRY1V2f What happens when #SCOTUS is deceived & issues opinion off it? Feb 10, 2012
• I’ve interacted with Bruce Bueno De Mesquita over his book. It’s a good book, but a lot… http://t.co/CXmUh349 Feb 10, 2012
• USPS Loses $3.3B, Warns of Cash Drain http://t.co/d8DKwMzC The loss is for the last quarter; somthing is going to have to give here. $$ Feb 09, 2012
• Contra: Live, From the Nation?s Capital, the Supreme Court http://t.co/3Ob69SHI Big mistake if #SCOTUS televises; cheapens deliberations. Feb 09, 2012
• World Food Prices Rose Most in 11 Months http://t.co/jJ5EHmAG #Agflation continues; we can print $$, credit, but can’t print food. Feb 09, 2012
• Misreading Catholic Barometer Is a Political Risk http://t.co/42JGnZWo Amer Catholics favor contraception, but dislike dissing bishops Feb 09, 2012
• @ToddSullivan “Voting no were Reps. John Campbell (R-Calif.) and Rob Woodall (R-Ga.)” $$ http://t.co/LoU2rUQz Wonder what they own? Feb 09, 2012
• “Can you imagine if you had to exchange your currency every time you crossed the state line?” The Confederation come? http://t.co/4C1crjn4 Feb 09, 2012
• LA?s Six-Figure Carpenters Show Clout of Utility Union http://t.co/GuHB4OOc Nice work if you can get it; pity the poor taxpayers though $$ Feb 08, 2012
• Buffett Wants to Pay Higher Taxes?on Less Than 1% of His Income http://t.co/HB5rzRin Buffett asks for tax raises where he does not earn Feb 08, 2012
• Is falling U.S. unemployment a statistical mirage? http://t.co/JTuqoKXF More on the falling labor participation rate & discouraged workers Feb 08, 2012
• Not a Fan of Santorum, but anything that deadlocks the Republican Convention is a good thing. Here is for someone totally new. Feb 08, 2012
• The optimal endgame for the Republicans is that the convention deadlocks, & they choose someone else. The four remaining r fatally flawed $$ Feb 08, 2012
• 6 Catholics he may not want 2 offend: #SCOTUS RT @BloombergView: @RameshPonnuru on Obama’s smackdown of Catholics $$ http://t.co/eJkuQRRN Feb 07, 2012
• For Sale: AIG’s Subprime Bonds http://t.co/zs89CIJy Color me wrong on this one; never thought the loan would get paid back at par $$ Feb 07, 2012
• Are Credit Ratings Massively Overrated? http://t.co/YtOLGnj2 Acid test: will regulators outsource the credit risk function to a formula? $$ Feb 07, 2012
• Answer: Unlikely, because then they have no one to blame when something goes wrong. $$ Feb 07, 2012

 

Asset Management

 

• Vanguard’s Forex-Hedged Foreign Bond ETFs http://t.co/194ZRxI2 Frustrating to see them finally do a foreign bond fund & then they hedge. Ugh Feb 09, 2012
• Buffett: Bonds Among Most Dangerous Assets http://t.co/x5sJUaak Loss of purchasing power, default, w/no upside. $$ Feb 09, 2012
• The Difference Between Owners and CEOs http://t.co/0Vtg8bmZ Companies w/dominant shareholders are typically more price-sensitive on buybacks Feb 09, 2012
• everything is connected http://t.co/XADlN5wL Very difficult to improve overall processes inside investment firms w/o looking @ everything $$ Feb 09, 2012
• The twilight of the Bond King http://t.co/2SthSbdU Long article, but way 2 early 2 write off Bill Gross. Pimco primer: http://t.co/SUXjeKhz Feb 09, 2012
• RT @Frank_McG: @AlephBlog reminds me when nortel mkt cap eclipsed sum of same for all cad banks, back in 2000 – the new math….for a w … Feb 08, 2012
• Merely to claim that $AAPL is an outlier begs the question of data reasonableness. Anyone know what had the largest negative surprise? Feb 08, 2012
• Apple Results Distorting S&P 500 Earnings, Golub Says http://t.co/i9qJ2rpT If you’re going to remove the best, then remove the worst too Feb 08, 2012
• sudden shifts in capital flows ? a risk for EM investors http://t.co/oVHjYiJb Increases in reserves can lead to asset bubbles. $$ Feb 08, 2012
• BlackRock?s Fink Says Be 100% in Equities http://t.co/KmXXIFXY That’s quite a call; leaven it with short hi-qual debt and long Tsys $$ Feb 08, 2012
• Gold not a reliable inflation hedge http://t.co/XofX5KBX A lot depends on how long the hedge horizon is; noisy in short-run certainly $$ Feb 08, 2012
• The End of Wall Street As They Knew It http://t.co/takMaT4e Continued delevering means opportunities in finance r limited & so is future pay Feb 07, 2012
• Just wanted to highlight a blog that has been having a discussion w/ @epicureandealmaker : Synthetic Assets http://t.co/iCMb0VXQ Good stuff Feb 07, 2012
• Gorman Embracing Vegemite in New Wall Street?s 15% Bogey at Morgan Stanley http://t.co/drNTToLN $MS looking more promising currently $$ Feb 07, 2012
• @BarbarianCap $FNF is one bizarre company, almost like a merchant bank. Now that mortgages aren’t a gravy train, they go elsewhere $$ Feb 07, 2012
• Why Dividend Stocks Aren’t the New Bonds http://t.co/FiK2kPnV Just because a stock pays a div doesn’t mean it ceases 2b a stock #caploss Feb 07, 2012

 

Money Market Funds (Resulted in this article)

 

• @MarcHochstein worth to be published daily? Didn’t think so, and I am generally one that favors FMV acctg. FM NAV is a useful internally. Feb 09, 2012
• @MarcHochstein I say that b/c a published floating NAV would cause more instability. Would bankers like the fair market value of bank net + Feb 09, 2012
• @MarcHochstein Reinforces my view that academic economists r more frequently wrong than those working in business. We deal w/real world. $$ Feb 09, 2012
• Money market mutual funds provide more transparency than banks http://t.co/SIXd9Yq2 frequent disclosure down 2 the individual security level Feb 09, 2012
• Will SEC Rules Make Treasurers Flee Money-Market Funds? http://t.co/yrgSqFta If I were a treasurer, I would probably buy CP directly. $$ Feb 09, 2012
• Simplifies my logic & pushes it forward RT @MarcHochstein: @AlephBlog you’re the Blog of the Day, hope I did it justice http://t.co/Uu18unUF Feb 08, 2012
• @MarcHochstein You did it justice. Thanks, many thanks. Feb 08, 2012
• @MarcHochstein Had some interesting arguments with the folks at ICI.org . They seem to be playing for all marbles, and will lose. Feb 08, 2012
• @MarcHochstein I’m an actuary by training, and have developed stable value funds w/more complex protections, this one is simple, FWIW Feb 08, 2012
• @MarcHochstein I’ve actually talked w/some in the MMF industry; they prefer that nothing be done; I don’t think that’s realistic politically Feb 08, 2012
• @MarcHochstein So if the loss at the MMF had the NAV down to .9925, renormalizing to 1.0025 means ~1% of shares would disappear. Feb 08, 2012
• @MarcHochstein But it has to be lower than 1.005, or you’d have to set the NAV @ 1.01, which MMF don’t want. 1.0025 is the average. Feb 08, 2012
• @MarcHochstein 1.0025 is artificial; it just has to be great than 1 so that a run increases the NAV, and biases yields higher in the future Feb 08, 2012
• @MarcHochstein Yes, the number of shares is reduced, and the NAV re-normalized @ 1.0025, so that if there is a run, the MMF strengthens Feb 08, 2012
• Ready for the next great ETF? Because of the undue persecution of money market funds,there is a lack of demand for A2/P2 commercial paper $$ Feb 08, 2012

 

Blogging

 

• Blogosphere, We Get It? http://t.co/EDBeJoJi Checked my blog. Only said “we get it” twice in 5 yrs & always followed by the word “wrong.” $$ Feb 08, 2012
• And the point is, I get it wrong. Frequently. In economics & investing, the game isn’t simply 2 avoid errors, but 2 minimize their damage $$ Feb 08, 2012
• Kauffman Blogger Survey: Economic Sexiness Coming http://t.co/2SLEfv2B A mixed group of forecasters sees better times ahead $$ Feb 07, 2012

 

Miscellaneous

 

• How to Be a Better Boss? Spend Time on the Front Lines http://t.co/0w90dQJG Mgrs can learn a lot by spending time in the trenches $$ Feb 10, 2012
• Best Disclaimer Language Ever http://t.co/orYSFN2k “The future is unknowable. We have good intentions but all of our projections and…” $$ Feb 09, 2012
• MF Global Trustee Sheds New Light on Chaos at Firm http://t.co/bTRwHARE Key Q: how much $$ transferred in final 5 days can b clawed back? Feb 07, 2012