Sorted Weekly Tweets – The Aleph Blog

Posted on 24 March 2012 by David Merkel

Central Banking

Been using FRED since it was a bulletin board in 1991. Great job, FRED team! http://t.co/kksvwllM Mar 24, 2012
The Villain http://t.co/yYReRb4r On Bernanke, the man who expanded the power of the Fed far beyond constitutional limits, if there r any $$ Mar 24, 2012
Bernanke Sees Need for Higher Household Spending to Fuel Growth http://t.co/3LQUTGji Yes Ben, we will spend more while we are inverted $$ Mar 24, 2012
Fed?s Evans Calls for Stronger Commitment to Low Rates http://t.co/vSKfU36q Read paper; don’t buy it. ARIMA, no out of sample tests $$ Mar 24, 2012
Bernanke Says Low Rates Didn’t Fuel Bubble http://t.co/XlF50zKV Perhaps Bernanke can’t remember minor crisis; RMBS extension mid-2003 $$ Mar 24, 2012
That crisis created a very sharp move up in rates http://t.co/jfNAVN3o $$ Mar 24, 2012
Bernanke: the man, the legacy and the law http://t.co/zA7OeFc4 ?courts have shied away from developing jurisprudence on monetary policy.? $$ Mar 24, 2012
@fatdaz It is my firm belief that no economic entity can dominate entirely; central banks have been destroyed b4; will happen again $$ Mar 24, 2012
Masters of the Universe Start to Challenge Ben Bernanke http://t.co/31Pr1yrQ Markets are more powerful than Central Banks, watch out Fed! Mar 23, 2012
European Banks Would Have Passed Fed?s Stress Test http://t.co/z5bCBeYy Ultimate insult 4 stringency of Fed’s stress tests $$ #devildetails Mar 20, 2012
Bernanke Stands to Gain Capital-Market Experts With Nominees http://t.co/oX8xOdEU We need some people that doubt neoclassical economics $$ Mar 20, 2012
Bernanke Returns to Academic Roots to Justify Fed?s Existence http://t.co/ORfma5sE Safe audiences let him talk publicly w/little risk $$ Mar 20, 2012
Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets http://t.co/CQu827KD Ignores E-Zone contagion, increase in int rate volatility, etc $$ Mar 19, 2012
Bernanke: “I Want to Bring Back Irrational Exuberance” http://t.co/p0qlQwXe @brucekrasting on overheating in some debt asset classes $$ Mar 19, 2012

China

Ai Weiwei: ?You?re There but You?re Not Existing? http://t.co/d7mLxHXm RARE interview w/Ai Weiwei, describing his detention in China $$ Mar 24, 2012
China?s stock-market supervision suffering http://t.co/QEBPC5ya “Understaffed securities regulator, weak legal system cited” $$ #nosurprise Mar 21, 2012
@Roy_Cam They can’t make money b/c of overcapacity; China invested too much in steel & global growth stinks. US exports of steel r rising $$ Mar 20, 2012
@Roy_Cam We only import 30% of steel used in US, 4% of which comes from China = 1.2% of steel used is from China http://t.co/FTWt80oa $$ Mar 20, 2012
@Roy_Cam You are right there, and that’s one reason why profitability is declining in steel industry globally. $$ Mar 20, 2012
China to increase fuel prices 6-7% http://t.co/dBwrepDj Pump prices at record highs; biggest rise since June 2009 #ouch $$ Mar 20, 2012
Sad Industry Mantra: Make Steel, Lose Money http://t.co/Pu9e6qFj Insanity; doing same thing, expecting different results. Future bailout $$ Mar 20, 2012
The State-Owned Enterprises of China http://t.co/55nvgUMs I think a “big bang” would work, but the Communist Party would never do it $$ #Mao Mar 20, 2012
Chinese property *alert* http://t.co/eklWzXkU Property sales value contracted 20% year on year in the two months ending in February. $$ Mar 20, 2012
China’s new home prices “no longer rising” http://t.co/UL4T3yzQ The Chinese Gov’t always gets what it wants, until it gets too much of it $$ Mar 19, 2012
Chinese Companies Forced to Falsify Data, Government Says http://t.co/tH0MUiYn AN example of why I don’t trust Chinese economic data. $$ Mar 18, 2012
@Xiphos_Trading Don’t know if there will be a crash or not, but there has been a lot of malinvestment in China, like Late 80s Japan $$ Mar 18, 2012

Europe

Those Catchy Spanish (Yield) Curves http://t.co/qoGmGl7E Yields backing up in the Spanish bond market; this could be the next crisis $$ Mar 24, 2012
Euro-Zone Banks Get Show of Faith http://t.co/ZWqd8Df5 US MMFs begin adding back yieldy E-zone bank CP $$ #wedontlearnwereallydontlearn Mar 24, 2012
On second thought, hold off moving that business to Ireland http://t.co/Bdu6ezon Ireland heading into recession; possibility of default? $$ Mar 23, 2012
@Mapsofworld Gun to the head, I think it fails entirely, but that opinion is not held with high probability $$ Mar 22, 2012
@Mapsofworld If the E-zone doesn’t move 2a full fiscal union, the Euro will either fail entirely, or become the currency of a smaller group Mar 22, 2012
The Safe Haven of the Nordic Currencies Is No More http://t.co/FquH5ZWW It’s a little early to get categorical about this $$ Mar 21, 2012
A Wall St. Firm Advises Greece, With Discretion http://t.co/Y12GeNZq $BLK is one powerful firm that many govts in crisis turn 2 4 help $$ Mar 21, 2012
Swiss Secrecy Besieged Makes Banks Fret World Money Lure Fading http://t.co/qV197Px1 What good r Swiss banks if no secrecy, tax evasion $$ Mar 20, 2012
Germany on a Different Track http://t.co/Gl3BNXBA While Much of EZone Deals W/Busts, Property Prices r Rising in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich Mar 20, 2012

Rest of the World

Israel Billionaires Put Own Interest Ahead of Holders http://t.co/QSTpBn6E What’s mine is mine; what’s yours is negotiable $$ Mar 24, 2012
Late Shah?s Son Selected As Iran?s Person Of The Year http://t.co/phWmAFRQ This is VOA so take it w/a grain of salt; still funny 2thinkabout Mar 24, 2012
Latin American Nations in Worse Shape for Crisis, IDB Says http://t.co/zlZvDJi4 “result of lower budget surpluses b4 interest payments” $$ Mar 20, 2012
What is the real rate of interest telling us? http://t.co/Vbk13I02 Excess capacity in devel world post bubble pop, send cap 2 emerg mkts Mar 20, 2012

Insurance

@CflGator Life companies should be simple, but product design exploded to the point where reserving can’t keep up; I own only 1 life co. Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator Variable & Universal life products have secondary gtee issues; there r a variety of long dated term products w/rsv issues $$ Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator and P&C insurance — life insurance is capital intensive; they are sticking with their simplest biz, aside from long-tail P&C $$ Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator It really depends; they wrote a lot of complex life products. On the bright side, a company in runoff is a cash cow. $$ Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator That’s the tough Q. $HIG offered significant secondary guarantees when they were the #1 annuity writer. May not b prop reserved $$ Mar 21, 2012
Hartford Shares Jump On Split, Analysts Like It Too http://t.co/APFbv4UA Not so fast on $HIG; regulators must approve a split; c my cmmt Mar 21, 2012
Should Hartford?s Annuity Holders Be Worried? http://t.co/HfuZO3QO Probably not; small annuitants have protection from guaranty funds $$ Mar 21, 2012
Annuity Case Chills Insurance Agents http://t.co/rHkg68Lw I’m always skeptical of products w/high commissions & surrender charges $$ Mar 19, 2012

Fixed Income

Why Fixed Income Funds May Fall Short http://t.co/cHmF3hOj On the difficulties of combating tracking error in fixed income ETFs. $$ Mar 24, 2012
Top Junk Pummels Treasuries for Safest Profits http://t.co/E5vl2qHB That’s the rearview mirror; will be harder to squeeze more returns out Mar 21, 2012
The differentiation of Agency MBS risk profiles http://t.co/IJN2mbCm Interesting to see long avg life on high coupon underwater mortgages $$ Mar 21, 2012
Bond Bear Market Yet to Roar http://t.co/oNENX9jc The selloff has been piddling so far, has not affected equities, & it may reverse $$ Mar 21, 2012
Do High Yield Bonds Know Something Stocks Don?t? http://t.co/986Evuok Equities & Inv Grade corps outperforming HY Corps- call provisions? $$ Mar 19, 2012
RE: @thearmotrader Thanks, you did the post that I wanted to do.? Now I just have to point to it. http://t.co/Ru22nvom Mar 19, 2012

Exchange Traded Products

“@HerbGreenberg mentions that once the creation/redemption mechanism ?breaks? (my word, not his), that the ETF/ETN sh? http://t.co/jxK0bZfX Mar 23, 2012
RE: Not likely, but maybe.? If they were forced to see that they were getting a negative (or very low positive) yield? http://t.co/nnxLt2oj Mar 23, 2012
Exchange-Traded Notes Are Worse Than You Think http://t.co/FAO4IS3H Path-dependent fees, shadow NAVs, high fees, tracking error, credit risk Mar 21, 2012
Who Uses Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Anyway? http://t.co/cYpkVMr5 Retail owns 80%+. Normal ETFs r mostly held by institutions $$ Mar 21, 2012
Know Your Client ? Leveraged ETF Version http://t.co/gqPtiZtF Doesn’t matter if leverage is internal or external, client needs come first $$ Mar 21, 2012
Money Managers Serving Clients First, Ego Second http://t.co/gY9bd1iR Using the investment vehicles of competing firms — a good thing $$ Mar 21, 2012
RE: @finadd “Our results indicate that the extensive purchases of risky private-label mortgage-backed securities by t? http://t.co/cn5TM1cR Mar 20, 2012
@amy_calistri at the levels implied by the CEF pricing at some funds, it would shave the yield 3% $DHF $MAV $HIX, 5% $PHT, 12% $PHK $$ Mar 19, 2012
@amy_calistri Right. I watch the premiums on credit-sensitive CEFs as a measure of frothiness. If the underlying at some HY CEFs were bot + Mar 19, 2012
Anybody know what was up with $EFT today? Floating-rate loan CEF up 4%+, Closed near par last Friday… odd. $$ Mar 19, 2012
‘Junk’ ETFs: Tread Lightly http://t.co/lXftKjwB Check the Price vs the NAV before you buy; also, if w/ds start, index bonds will get hit Mar 19, 2012

Individual Equities

Leon Black?s Bid Gets No Respect as Great Wolf Surges http://t.co/kqS6pNyU Used 2call this stock “little dog;” badly managed frm beginning Mar 24, 2012
@merrillmatter Bezos is scary-smart. I don’t own $AMZN either $$ Mar 21, 2012
Just watched it. Wow, very impressive RT @merrillmatter: Skynet shall be renamed SkyBezos — Order Fetch http://t.co/6l9R9bHn $$ Mar 21, 2012
+1, ugh RT @abnormalreturns: [post] America officially ran out of good corporate names today. http://t.co/lLGEmeAB $ABT $KFT $AAPL $NKE $MCD Mar 21, 2012
You’re on a roll today @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog soon our robot overlords will deliver our bread and circuses to us in the Bezos Colosseum Mar 21, 2012
No RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog I want to start a consultancy that veto’s stupid company names. Would your anti-consultancy veto that? 🙂 Mar 21, 2012
Amazon Wrings Profit From Fulfillment as Spending Soars http://t.co/McHUqMhe Tough work 4 laborers, though. $AMZN pushes pretty hard $$ Mar 21, 2012
Kraft to Be Renamed Mondelez After Grocery Unit Is Spun Off http://t.co/GONE6x47 Pronounced ?Mohn-dah-LEEZ.? Sigh, who got paid 4 this? $$ Mar 21, 2012
The 400% Man’s New Big Bet http://t.co/33rHut9y Implicitly a bet that $BRKa will always be able to buy back stock @ 1.1x book value $$ Mar 21, 2012
In a Major Restructuring, $HPQ To Combine Printer and PC Groups http://t.co/Aj3zaKaY FD: +HPQ; seems like a marginal idea, maybe works $$ Mar 20, 2012
Why $HPQ Really Needs A CEO Succession Plan http://t.co/hkPDVkAy Good cultures should promote from within; HP used to have that $$ FD: +HPQ Mar 20, 2012
Buffett Message Is ?Do as I Say, Not as I Do? http://t.co/Gcblc8oZ Alice Schroeder very acidic on Buffett; half right & half wrong $$ Mar 20, 2012
$AAPL to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash http://t.co/uxf6jEBP About time, if there aren’t opps 2use the $$ Mar 19, 2012

Money Market Funds

@MarcHochstein Thanks, I found the CFA Institutes comment today, and their view is similar 2 mine in some ways: http://t.co/8yPLcXfX $$ Mar 22, 2012
@MarcHochstein investment restrictions moved back to 2008 norms. The ability 2 have credit events frees MMFs to pursue best advantage $$ Mar 21, 2012
@MarcHochstein My idea will work 4 MMFs using inv policies prior 2 2008. The MMF folks aren’t earning $$ now, but they could with + Mar 21, 2012
@MarcHochstein After reading this: http://t.co/aUoaN4kb Ask them, what if you traded Merkel’s idea 4 a loosening of investment rules? $$ Mar 21, 2012
@MarcHochstein 1 more thing; if they have any sympathy toward my idea, I live near DC & would be willing to testify to the SEC $$ Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Does that help? I still think my proposal, one of the few compromise proposals out there would work best of all. Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Having been a life actuary, most regulatory progress happens when actuaries talk w/smarter regulators & forge compromise Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Does that help? MMFs are just saying “We r fine, nothing needs 2b done.” 2me that strategy prob loses. Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Would ask them if they have any way of stopping MMF runs on a private basis; this is the SEC goal; solve that, they leave Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein More humbly, I would ask them if they really think they can beat the SEC. SEC’s proposal is horrible, but saying “no” loses Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Not so humbly, I would ask that u show them my proposal that I sent to the SEC, & ask them to back it http://t.co/vuNL8tQE Mar 20, 2012

Market Dynamics

The Easy Money’s Been Made, Four Reasons for Caution http://t.co/9kAXqEU4 E-zone calm, risk tolerance+ , VIX low, FOMC may move soon Mar 24, 2012
?and then all of a sudden, THE BULLS WENT BERZERK! http://t.co/bJKCVJha Lots of bullishness out there, though Howard Marks thought otherwise Mar 21, 2012
@byrneseyeview That’s true, & I did a presentation on that. One more complicating factor were financials, which looked cheap but weren’t $$ Mar 21, 2012
@byrneseyeview Found it. Here: http://t.co/YupRW6yD It’s on a number of topics; it was well-received $$ Mar 21, 2012
Contra: The Biggest Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of http://t.co/0tzkPyiA Value can’t b a bubble. Growth can b a bubble. Growth & ROE meanrevert Mar 21, 2012
Is this time really different? http://t.co/eePs0aIV It’s never different. It’s always different. Profit margins will mean-revert; Q is when Mar 21, 2012
Biggs boosts bullish bets on stocks to 90% net long http://t.co/5fYQDhUC Won’t be the first 2 say this, but makes me doubt the rally $$ Mar 21, 2012
The Ax is Back http://t.co/B1j3f7nH @reformedbroker Reduced profits on Wall Street translates into reduced perks, bonuses & jobs $$ Mar 21, 2012
Public Companies: The End Is Near http://t.co/KejHwYDu There r still advantages 2being publicly traded, but has eroded since Sarbox, etc $$ Mar 20, 2012
S&P 500 Rises to Four-Year High as Apple Plans Dividend http://t.co/RnBf9yEw $AAPL raises the div yld on the S&P 500 by 0.08%. Big! $$ Mar 19, 2012
Shares and shibboleths http://t.co/CspyJCNX The equity premium over a diversified portfolio of investment grade bonds is ~1%/yr IMO $$ Mar 19, 2012
Hubble, Bubble, Index Trouble http://t.co/2q3CPx4g Been saying this for years, indexing changes market dynamics, what happens @ reversal? $$ Mar 18, 2012

Politics

Why Are Your Neighbors Just Like You? http://t.co/0lcPOuLZ On the demise of really knowing your neighbors; we try 2 reach out; few others do Mar 24, 2012
@traderscrucible @interfluidity My blog (& Steve’s) have always had a strong public policy emphasis. Dreaming, but we suggest better policy. Mar 23, 2012
Agent Based Models http://t.co/0etJ20fL “Why not keep it simple, and just say, you pay an asset tax for every dollar over $100B?” $$ Mar 23, 2012
The Warren Buffett Chain Letter http://t.co/31FFSrmm Draconian adjustments. What Buffett did & didn’t say. 3% deficit ejects Congress $$ Mar 21, 2012
Migration of sovereign debt from private hands to public institutions http://t.co/rQbDTXg3 &the debt sits til liquidity is needed -> crisis! Mar 21, 2012
To Stay On Top, The US Must Invest In Research Universities http://t.co/P4kyUqY0 FD: + $INTC; do it w/yr own $$ not taxes; c my comment Mar 20, 2012
RT @BarbarianCap: “cnbc: California Cities Scrambling to Avoid Becoming Insolvent” > the die was cast years ago; clowns, path depende … Mar 20, 2012
Stopping the National Debt: A Movement Led By a Cowboy, a Colonel, & a Citizens’ Cavalry http://t.co/frqAXCpy Natl Debt Relief Amendment Mar 20, 2012
Who is REALLY paying in the $25bil TBTF mortgage settlement http://t.co/T2h1B5CO $5B from banks, rest MBS holders eg pension plans, insurers Mar 19, 2012
The JOBS Act: Plutocracy in Action http://t.co/Fjo3Ppet Another article on the previous topic; don’t downgrade information quality $$ Mar 19, 2012
Small Biz Jobs Act Is a Bipartisan Bridge Too Far http://t.co/AwBXg184 Would not mess w/securities laws in that way to create growth $$ Mar 19, 2012
Public Unions Send Medical Bills to Taxpayers http://t.co/Lb2XgAv9 CA Sup Ct foolishly makes healthcare nonreducible. CA will die $$ Mar 18, 2012
As Unions Lose Their Grip, Indiana Lures Manufacturing Jobs http://t.co/vj177CT2 Like my article that few like http://t.co/WgdN7Mmq $$ Mar 18, 2012
Pension Legislation Could Cut Contributions, Hike Taxes http://t.co/Tj1UlUz8 Stupid proposals that weaken DB pensions, companies r strongnow Mar 18, 2012

Regulation

Where is the Center for Audit Quality When We Actually Could Use It? http://t.co/jWt09bcw JOBS Act: destroy info reliability to create jobs Mar 23, 2012
Fed?s Fisher Says ?Too-Big-to-Fail? Problem Remains http://t.co/eLvHGmXt Richard Fisher favors breakup of the biggest banks. $$ Mar 21, 2012
@carney just read your piece on the net capital rule. Similar to my piece last November http://t.co/tl28NPku Good piece. $$ Mar 21, 2012
Top Court’s Patent Rejection Alarms the Biotech Industry http://t.co/oK11WlvR ’bout time we forced a more fundamental review of patents Mar 21, 2012

Economics

Solar?s 80% Plunge Hurts Utilities From Hawaii to Spain http://t.co/m9eACVTp Overcapacity drives down prices of PV panels for now. $$ Mar 21, 2012
Mean Time Between Failures http://t.co/zkT0z9cX The “recovery” is getting long in the tooth, eg it may end soon; graph: http://t.co/xOHA1IYA Mar 20, 2012
Obama?s tax hikes threaten a new US recession http://t.co/uNHwBpeJ Looking @ 4 more years of divided govt & stalemate $$ #debtbombgrows Mar 20, 2012
@The_Dumb_Money I would have liked to see the Banks/Etc. who owned the servicers bear more of the cost $$\ Mar 20, 2012
Partial equilibrium intuitions about choice http://t.co/215kIrmS @interfluidity more difficult to solve general equilibrium Qs than partial Mar 19, 2012
Understanding the New Price of Oil http://t.co/TaMTaneR No surprise here; most cheap oil has been found, the price of oil should rise $$ Mar 18, 2012

Miscellaneous

@merrillmatter Factoid: 100,000,000,000 to 1 for a monkey to type the word “banana” from random typewriter jumping Mar 21, 2012
Is a Calorie a Calorie? http://t.co/4hyTfSvr Yes, but different nutrients come w/calories. Also, a unit of fat has 2x cals vs carbs/protein Mar 21, 2012
Madoff’s Lament: I Was An Honest Money Manager Once http://t.co/OGp2xRHR The outside world should ignore Madoff now. Attention feeds him. Mar 21, 2012
Trust no one http://t.co/cFYBkCA7 & http://t.co/ILP0dPlA Independent & regular journalists face conflicts of interest in giving speeches $$ Mar 20, 2012
On Slime and Water http://t.co/8iezy0FK Pink Slime in burgers, and shortages of potable water in most of the globe, except Canada & US. $$ Mar 18, 2012
The NSA Is Building the Country?s Biggest Spy Center (Watch What You Say) http://t.co/iUsN5D0t Time to increase encryption key sizes $$ Mar 18, 2012
@TimABRussell I always read all the books I review; in rare cases when I don’t, I tell readers that I skimmed it. $$ Mar 18, 2012

Central Banking

?? Been using FRED since it was a bulletin board in 1991. Great job, FRED team! http://t.co/kksvwllMMar 24, 2012

?? The Villain http://t.co/yYReRb4r On Bernanke, the man who expanded the power of the Fed far beyond constitutional limits, if there r any $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? Bernanke Sees Need for Higher Household Spending to Fuel Growth http://t.co/3LQUTGji Yes Ben, we will spend more while we are inverted $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? Fed?s Evans Calls for Stronger Commitment to Low Rates http://t.co/vSKfU36q Read paper; don’t buy it. ARIMA, no out of sample tests $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? Bernanke Says Low Rates Didn’t Fuel Bubble http://t.co/XlF50zKV Perhaps Bernanke can’t remember minor crisis; RMBS extension mid-2003 $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? That crisis created a very sharp move up in rates http://t.co/jfNAVN3o $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? Bernanke: the man, the legacy and the law http://t.co/zA7OeFc4 ?courts have shied away from developing jurisprudence on monetary policy.? $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? @fatdaz It is my firm belief that no economic entity can dominate entirely; central banks have been destroyed b4; will happen again $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? Masters of the Universe Start to Challenge Ben Bernanke http://t.co/31Pr1yrQ Markets are more powerful than Central Banks, watch out Fed! Mar 23, 2012

?? European Banks Would Have Passed Fed?s Stress Test http://t.co/z5bCBeYy Ultimate insult 4 stringency of Fed’s stress tests $$ #devildetails Mar 20, 2012

?? Bernanke Stands to Gain Capital-Market Experts With Nominees http://t.co/oX8xOdEU We need some people that doubt neoclassical economics $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? Bernanke Returns to Academic Roots to Justify Fed?s Existence http://t.co/ORfma5sE Safe audiences let him talk publicly w/little risk $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets http://t.co/CQu827KD Ignores E-Zone contagion, increase in int rate volatility, etc $$ Mar 19, 2012

?? Bernanke: “I Want to Bring Back Irrational Exuberance” http://t.co/p0qlQwXe @brucekrasting on overheating in some debt asset classes $$ Mar 19, 2012

China

?? Ai Weiwei: ?You?re There but You?re Not Existing? http://t.co/d7mLxHXm RARE interview w/Ai Weiwei, describing his detention in China $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? China?s stock-market supervision suffering http://t.co/QEBPC5ya “Understaffed securities regulator, weak legal system cited” $$ #nosurprise Mar 21, 2012

?? @Roy_Cam They can’t make money b/c of overcapacity; China invested too much in steel & global growth stinks. US exports of steel r rising $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? @Roy_Cam We only import 30% of steel used in US, 4% of which comes from China = 1.2% of steel used is from China http://t.co/FTWt80oa $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? @Roy_Cam You are right there, and that’s one reason why profitability is declining in steel industry globally. $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? China to increase fuel prices 6-7% http://t.co/dBwrepDj Pump prices at record highs; biggest rise since June 2009 #ouch $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? Sad Industry Mantra: Make Steel, Lose Money http://t.co/Pu9e6qFj Insanity; doing same thing, expecting different results. Future bailout $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? The State-Owned Enterprises of China http://t.co/55nvgUMs I think a “big bang” would work, but the Communist Party would never do it $$ #Mao Mar 20, 2012

?? Chinese property *alert* http://t.co/eklWzXkU Property sales value contracted 20% year on year in the two months ending in February. $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? China’s new home prices “no longer rising” http://t.co/UL4T3yzQ The Chinese Gov’t always gets what it wants, until it gets too much of it $$ Mar 19, 2012

?? Chinese Companies Forced to Falsify Data, Government Says http://t.co/tH0MUiYn AN example of why I don’t trust Chinese economic data. $$ Mar 18, 2012

?? @Xiphos_Trading Don’t know if there will be a crash or not, but there has been a lot of malinvestment in China, like Late 80s Japan $$ Mar 18, 2012

Europe

?? Those Catchy Spanish (Yield) Curves http://t.co/qoGmGl7E Yields backing up in the Spanish bond market; this could be the next crisis $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? Euro-Zone Banks Get Show of Faith http://t.co/ZWqd8Df5 US MMFs begin adding back yieldy E-zone bank CP $$ #wedontlearnwereallydontlearn Mar 24, 2012

?? On second thought, hold off moving that business to Ireland http://t.co/Bdu6ezon Ireland heading into recession; possibility of default? $$ Mar 23, 2012

?? @Mapsofworld Gun to the head, I think it fails entirely, but that opinion is not held with high probability $$ Mar 22, 2012

?? @Mapsofworld If the E-zone doesn’t move 2a full fiscal union, the Euro will either fail entirely, or become the currency of a smaller group Mar 22, 2012

?? The Safe Haven of the Nordic Currencies Is No More http://t.co/FquH5ZWW It’s a little early to get categorical about this $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? A Wall St. Firm Advises Greece, With Discretion http://t.co/Y12GeNZq $BLK is one powerful firm that many govts in crisis turn 2 4 help $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Swiss Secrecy Besieged Makes Banks Fret World Money Lure Fading http://t.co/qV197Px1 What good r Swiss banks if no secrecy, tax evasion $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? Germany on a Different Track http://t.co/Gl3BNXBA While Much of EZone Deals W/Busts, Property Prices r Rising in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich Mar 20, 2012

Rest of the World

?? Israel Billionaires Put Own Interest Ahead of Holders http://t.co/QSTpBn6E What’s mine is mine; what’s yours is negotiable $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? Late Shah?s Son Selected As Iran?s Person Of The Year http://t.co/phWmAFRQ This is VOA so take it w/a grain of salt; still funny 2thinkabout Mar 24, 2012

?? Latin American Nations in Worse Shape for Crisis, IDB Says http://t.co/zlZvDJi4 “result of lower budget surpluses b4 interest payments” $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? What is the real rate of interest telling us? http://t.co/Vbk13I02 Excess capacity in devel world post bubble pop, send cap 2 emerg mkts Mar 20, 2012

Insurance

?? @CflGator Life companies should be simple, but product design exploded to the point where reserving can’t keep up; I own only 1 life co. Mar 24, 2012

?? @CflGator Variable & Universal life products have secondary gtee issues; there r a variety of long dated term products w/rsv issues $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? @CflGator and P&C insurance — life insurance is capital intensive; they are sticking with their simplest biz, aside from long-tail P&C $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? @CflGator It really depends; they wrote a lot of complex life products. On the bright side, a company in runoff is a cash cow. $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? @CflGator That’s the tough Q. $HIG offered significant secondary guarantees when they were the #1 annuity writer. May not b prop reserved $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Hartford Shares Jump On Split, Analysts Like It Too http://t.co/APFbv4UA Not so fast on $HIG; regulators must approve a split; c my cmmt Mar 21, 2012

?? Should Hartford?s Annuity Holders Be Worried? http://t.co/HfuZO3QO Probably not; small annuitants have protection from guaranty funds $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Annuity Case Chills Insurance Agents http://t.co/rHkg68Lw I’m always skeptical of products w/high commissions & surrender charges $$ Mar 19, 2012

Fixed Income

?? Why Fixed Income Funds May Fall Short http://t.co/cHmF3hOj On the difficulties of combating tracking error in fixed income ETFs. $$ Mar 24, 2012

?? Top Junk Pummels Treasuries for Safest Profits http://t.co/E5vl2qHB That’s the rearview mirror; will be harder to squeeze more returns out Mar 21, 2012

?? The differentiation of Agency MBS risk profiles http://t.co/IJN2mbCm Interesting to see long avg life on high coupon underwater mortgages $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Bond Bear Market Yet to Roar http://t.co/oNENX9jc The selloff has been piddling so far, has not affected equities, & it may reverse $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Do High Yield Bonds Know Something Stocks Don?t? http://t.co/986Evuok Equities & Inv Grade corps outperforming HY Corps- call provisions? $$ Mar 19, 2012

?? RE: @thearmotrader Thanks, you did the post that I wanted to do.? Now I just have to point to it. http://t.co/Ru22nvom Mar 19, 2012

Exchange Traded Products

?? “@HerbGreenberg mentions that once the creation/redemption mechanism ?breaks? (my word, not his), that the ETF/ETN sh? http://t.co/jxK0bZfX Mar 23, 2012

?? RE: Not likely, but maybe.? If they were forced to see that they were getting a negative (or very low positive) yield? http://t.co/nnxLt2oj Mar 23, 2012

?? Exchange-Traded Notes Are Worse Than You Think http://t.co/FAO4IS3H Path-dependent fees, shadow NAVs, high fees, tracking error, credit risk Mar 21, 2012

?? Who Uses Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Anyway? http://t.co/cYpkVMr5 Retail owns 80%+. Normal ETFs r mostly held by institutions $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Know Your Client ? Leveraged ETF Version http://t.co/gqPtiZtF Doesn’t matter if leverage is internal or external, client needs come first $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Money Managers Serving Clients First, Ego Second http://t.co/gY9bd1iR Using the investment vehicles of competing firms — a good thing $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? RE: @finadd “Our results indicate that the extensive purchases of risky private-label mortgage-backed securities by t? http://t.co/cn5TM1cR Mar 20, 2012

?? @amy_calistri at the levels implied by the CEF pricing at some funds, it would shave the yield 3% $DHF $MAV $HIX, 5% $PHT, 12% $PHK $$ Mar 19, 2012

?? @amy_calistri Right. I watch the premiums on credit-sensitive CEFs as a measure of frothiness. If the underlying at some HY CEFs were bot + Mar 19, 2012

?? Anybody know what was up with $EFT today? Floating-rate loan CEF up 4%+, Closed near par last Friday… odd. $$ Mar 19, 2012

?? ‘Junk’ ETFs: Tread Lightly http://t.co/lXftKjwB Check the Price vs the NAV before you buy; also, if w/ds start, index bonds will get hit Mar 19, 2012

Individual Equities

?? Leon Black?s Bid Gets No Respect as Great Wolf Surges http://t.co/kqS6pNyU Used 2call this stock “little dog;” badly managed frm beginning Mar 24, 2012

?? @merrillmatter Bezos is scary-smart. I don’t own $AMZN either $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Just watched it. Wow, very impressive RT @merrillmatter: Skynet shall be renamed SkyBezos — Order Fetch http://t.co/6l9R9bHn $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? +1, ugh RT @abnormalreturns: [post] America officially ran out of good corporate names today. http://t.co/lLGEmeAB $ABT $KFT $AAPL $NKE $MCD Mar 21, 2012

?? You’re on a roll today @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog soon our robot overlords will deliver our bread and circuses to us in the Bezos Colosseum Mar 21, 2012

?? No RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog I want to start a consultancy that veto’s stupid company names. Would your anti-consultancy veto that? 🙂 Mar 21, 2012

?? Amazon Wrings Profit From Fulfillment as Spending Soars http://t.co/McHUqMhe Tough work 4 laborers, though. $AMZN pushes pretty hard $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Kraft to Be Renamed Mondelez After Grocery Unit Is Spun Off http://t.co/GONE6x47 Pronounced ?Mohn-dah-LEEZ.? Sigh, who got paid 4 this? $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? The 400% Man’s New Big Bet http://t.co/33rHut9y Implicitly a bet that $BRKa will always be able to buy back stock @ 1.1x book value $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? In a Major Restructuring, $HPQ To Combine Printer and PC Groups http://t.co/Aj3zaKaY FD: +HPQ; seems like a marginal idea, maybe works $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? Why $HPQ Really Needs A CEO Succession Plan http://t.co/hkPDVkAy Good cultures should promote from within; HP used to have that $$ FD: +HPQ Mar 20, 2012

?? Buffett Message Is ?Do as I Say, Not as I Do? http://t.co/Gcblc8oZ Alice Schroeder very acidic on Buffett; half right & half wrong $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? $AAPL to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash http://t.co/uxf6jEBP About time, if there aren’t opps 2use the $$ Mar 19, 2012

Money Market Funds

?? @MarcHochstein Thanks, I found the CFA Institutes comment today, and their view is similar 2 mine in some ways: http://t.co/8yPLcXfX $$ Mar 22, 2012

?? @MarcHochstein investment restrictions moved back to 2008 norms. The ability 2 have credit events frees MMFs to pursue best advantage $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? @MarcHochstein My idea will work 4 MMFs using inv policies prior 2 2008. The MMF folks aren’t earning $$ now, but they could with + Mar 21, 2012

?? @MarcHochstein After reading this: http://t.co/aUoaN4kb Ask them, what if you traded Merkel’s idea 4 a loosening of investment rules? $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? @MarcHochstein 1 more thing; if they have any sympathy toward my idea, I live near DC & would be willing to testify to the SEC $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? @MarcHochstein Does that help? I still think my proposal, one of the few compromise proposals out there would work best of all. Mar 20, 2012

?? @MarcHochstein Having been a life actuary, most regulatory progress happens when actuaries talk w/smarter regulators & forge compromise Mar 20, 2012

?? @MarcHochstein Does that help? MMFs are just saying “We r fine, nothing needs 2b done.” 2me that strategy prob loses. Mar 20, 2012

?? @MarcHochstein Would ask them if they have any way of stopping MMF runs on a private basis; this is the SEC goal; solve that, they leave Mar 20, 2012

?? @MarcHochstein More humbly, I would ask them if they really think they can beat the SEC. SEC’s proposal is horrible, but saying “no” loses Mar 20, 2012

?? @MarcHochstein Not so humbly, I would ask that u show them my proposal that I sent to the SEC, & ask them to back it http://t.co/vuNL8tQE Mar 20, 2012

Market Dynamics

?? The Easy Money’s Been Made, Four Reasons for Caution http://t.co/9kAXqEU4 E-zone calm, risk tolerance+ , VIX low, FOMC may move soon Mar 24, 2012

?? ?and then all of a sudden, THE BULLS WENT BERZERK! http://t.co/bJKCVJha Lots of bullishness out there, though Howard Marks thought otherwise Mar 21, 2012

?? @byrneseyeview That’s true, & I did a presentation on that. One more complicating factor were financials, which looked cheap but weren’t $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? @byrneseyeview Found it. Here: http://t.co/YupRW6yD It’s on a number of topics; it was well-received $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Contra: The Biggest Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of http://t.co/0tzkPyiA Value can’t b a bubble. Growth can b a bubble. Growth & ROE meanrevert Mar 21, 2012

?? Is this time really different? http://t.co/eePs0aIV It’s never different. It’s always different. Profit margins will mean-revert; Q is when Mar 21, 2012

?? Biggs boosts bullish bets on stocks to 90% net long http://t.co/5fYQDhUC Won’t be the first 2 say this, but makes me doubt the rally $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? The Ax is Back http://t.co/B1j3f7nH @reformedbroker Reduced profits on Wall Street translates into reduced perks, bonuses & jobs $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Public Companies: The End Is Near http://t.co/KejHwYDu There r still advantages 2being publicly traded, but has eroded since Sarbox, etc $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? S&P 500 Rises to Four-Year High as Apple Plans Dividend http://t.co/RnBf9yEw $AAPL raises the div yld on the S&P 500 by 0.08%. Big! $$ Mar 19, 2012

?? Shares and shibboleths http://t.co/CspyJCNX The equity premium over a diversified portfolio of investment grade bonds is ~1%/yr IMO $$ Mar 19, 2012

?? Hubble, Bubble, Index Trouble http://t.co/2q3CPx4g Been saying this for years, indexing changes market dynamics, what happens @ reversal? $$ Mar 18, 2012

Politics

?? Why Are Your Neighbors Just Like You? http://t.co/0lcPOuLZ On the demise of really knowing your neighbors; we try 2 reach out; few others do Mar 24, 2012

?? @traderscrucible @interfluidity My blog (& Steve’s) have always had a strong public policy emphasis. Dreaming, but we suggest better policy. Mar 23, 2012

?? Agent Based Models http://t.co/0etJ20fL “Why not keep it simple, and just say, you pay an asset tax for every dollar over $100B?” $$ Mar 23, 2012

?? The Warren Buffett Chain Letter http://t.co/31FFSrmm Draconian adjustments. What Buffett did & didn’t say. 3% deficit ejects Congress $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Migration of sovereign debt from private hands to public institutions http://t.co/rQbDTXg3 &the debt sits til liquidity is needed -> crisis! Mar 21, 2012

?? To Stay On Top, The US Must Invest In Research Universities http://t.co/P4kyUqY0 FD: + $INTC; do it w/yr own $$ not taxes; c my comment Mar 20, 2012

?? RT @BarbarianCap: “cnbc: California Cities Scrambling to Avoid Becoming Insolvent” > the die was cast years ago; clowns, path depende … Mar 20, 2012

?? Stopping the National Debt: A Movement Led By a Cowboy, a Colonel, & a Citizens’ Cavalry http://t.co/frqAXCpy Natl Debt Relief Amendment Mar 20, 2012

?? Who is REALLY paying in the $25bil TBTF mortgage settlement http://t.co/T2h1B5CO $5B from banks, rest MBS holders eg pension plans, insurers Mar 19, 2012

?? The JOBS Act: Plutocracy in Action http://t.co/Fjo3Ppet Another article on the previous topic; don’t downgrade information quality $$ Mar 19, 2012

?? Small Biz Jobs Act Is a Bipartisan Bridge Too Far http://t.co/AwBXg184 Would not mess w/securities laws in that way to create growth $$ Mar 19, 2012

?? Public Unions Send Medical Bills to Taxpayers http://t.co/Lb2XgAv9 CA Sup Ct foolishly makes healthcare nonreducible. CA will die $$ Mar 18, 2012

?? As Unions Lose Their Grip, Indiana Lures Manufacturing Jobs http://t.co/vj177CT2 Like my article that few like http://t.co/WgdN7Mmq $$ Mar 18, 2012

?? Pension Legislation Could Cut Contributions, Hike Taxes http://t.co/Tj1UlUz8 Stupid proposals that weaken DB pensions, companies r strongnow Mar 18, 2012

Regulation

?? Where is the Center for Audit Quality When We Actually Could Use It? http://t.co/jWt09bcw JOBS Act: destroy info reliability to create jobs Mar 23, 2012

?? Fed?s Fisher Says ?Too-Big-to-Fail? Problem Remains http://t.co/eLvHGmXt Richard Fisher favors breakup of the biggest banks. $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? @carney just read your piece on the net capital rule. Similar to my piece last November http://t.co/tl28NPku Good piece. $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Top Court’s Patent Rejection Alarms the Biotech Industry http://t.co/oK11WlvR ’bout time we forced a more fundamental review of patents Mar 21, 2012

Economics

?? Solar?s 80% Plunge Hurts Utilities From Hawaii to Spain http://t.co/m9eACVTp Overcapacity drives down prices of PV panels for now. $$ Mar 21, 2012

?? Mean Time Between Failures http://t.co/zkT0z9cX The “recovery” is getting long in the tooth, eg it may end soon; graph: http://t.co/xOHA1IYA Mar 20, 2012

?? Obama?s tax hikes threaten a new US recession http://t.co/uNHwBpeJ Looking @ 4 more years of divided govt & stalemate $$ #debtbombgrows Mar 20, 2012

?? @The_Dumb_Money I would have liked to see the Banks/Etc. who owned the servicers bear more of the cost $$\ Mar 20, 2012

?? Partial equilibrium intuitions about choice http://t.co/215kIrmS @interfluidity more difficult to solve general equilibrium Qs than partial Mar 19, 2012

?? Understanding the New Price of Oil http://t.co/TaMTaneR No surprise here; most cheap oil has been found, the price of oil should rise $$ Mar 18, 2012

Miscellaneous

?? @merrillmatter Factoid: 100,000,000,000 to 1 for a monkey to type the word “banana” from random typewriter jumping Mar 21, 2012

?? Is a Calorie a Calorie? http://t.co/4hyTfSvr Yes, but different nutrients come w/calories. Also, a unit of fat has 2x cals vs carbs/protein Mar 21, 2012

?? Madoff’s Lament: I Was An Honest Money Manager Once http://t.co/OGp2xRHR The outside world should ignore Madoff now. Attention feeds him. Mar 21, 2012

?? Trust no one http://t.co/cFYBkCA7 & http://t.co/ILP0dPlA Independent & regular journalists face conflicts of interest in giving speeches $$ Mar 20, 2012

?? On Slime and Water http://t.co/8iezy0FK Pink Slime in burgers, and shortages of potable water in most of the globe, except Canada & US. $$ Mar 18, 2012

?? The NSA Is Building the Country?s Biggest Spy Center (Watch What You Say) http://t.co/iUsN5D0t Time to increase encryption key sizes $$ Mar 18, 2012

?? @TimABRussell I always read all the books I review; in rare cases when I don’t, I tell readers that I skimmed it. $$ Mar 18, 2012

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