China

 

• China’s first bond default could be good market medicine http://t.co/8ShFniYM Bond trader: “We don’t really have a credit risk culture.” $$ Mar 31, 2012
• Is China’s slowdown worse than previously estimated? http://t.co/CkZw8tLK Could b business conditions that are worst since 2009. $$ Mar 31, 2012
• China Banks Said to Underestimate Local Government Risks http://t.co/qpPicyEe China has a clever bureaucracy; always has; big CYA $$ Mar 25, 2012
• Chinese capitalism is just another knockoff http://t.co/w2hSozQL China is not Capitalist; it rewards Party members, not citizens. $$ Mar 25, 2012
• Debating a ?Hard Landing? http://t.co/NMnYk2XX friendly debate – Andrew Batson & Patrick Chovanec over China facing a ?hard landing? in 2012 Mar 25, 2012
• I Am Jordan’s Complete Lack of Surprise: Chinese Co’s Forced to Falsify Data http://t.co/BMj7ux0T Command & control economy, not free $$ Mar 25, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

• The Nature of a Crowded Trade http://t.co/sf1phJjP A July 2008 article of mine where I reflected on the high correlations of the prior 3 yrs Mar 31, 2012
• A Market Lacking Diversification http://t.co/khXUVjaL Correlation conditions similar to 2006-2008, only diversifier hi-qual long bonds $$ Mar 31, 2012
• Pension Deficit for 100 US Company Plans Increased 41% in 2011 http://t.co/FdIZTltW Low long hi-qual rates & cruddy returns on risk assets Mar 31, 2012
• 2277 Stocks and Still Not Diversified? http://t.co/iu0Pw8Ty Recommended solution is similar 2a levered version of the Permanent Portfolio $$ Mar 31, 2012
• New from Aleph Blog The Rules, Part XXXI: The offering of liquidity through limit orders is a real service to th… http://t.co/ZiuzWIo5 Mar 30, 2012
• Passive Aggressive: Index-Linked Securities and Individual Investors http://t.co/ZrjMCKCz Curbs stock picking, encourages factor timing $$ Mar 29, 2012
• Bankers are telling corporate clients this is their chance to refinance http://t.co/Eh9tHEX6 The window of cheap junk financing is open $$ Mar 28, 2012
• New from Aleph Blog Replacing Defined Contributions: I think that it is pretty certain that defined contribution… http://t.co/Dis34ql2 Mar 27, 2012
• What Will Replace the 401(k)? http://t.co/miLAuoYc How about DB pensions where it depends on how much the employee kicks in plus match? $$ Mar 27, 2012
• US Stocks Advance Following Bernanke?s Comments http://t.co/D7sORuIU Stox react 2 increases in inflation expectations. TIPS & Bonds fall $$ Mar 26, 2012
• Hedge Funds Capitulating Buy Most Stocks Since 2010 http://t.co/XHwxzxNO Short-term money alert! Will propel mkt 4 a while, then… $$ Mar 26, 2012
• If Bloomberg Business Week is a better magazine than old Businessweek (I think so), what magazine should we use now 4 a dumb $$ indicator? Mar 26, 2012

 

Asset Management

 

• Nontraded REITS should be a nonstarter for clients http://t.co/O1ZuMvX8 And here’s one that just announced a 72% loss: http://t.co/la8d29my Mar 31, 2012
• Oaktree IPO Could Pay 2 Founders $117.2M Each http://t.co/Yufla6Jk The Most Important Thing is getting rewarded 4 building AUM 😉 $$ Mar 31, 2012
• The Trouble With Exchange Traded Notes http://t.co/ZL7dVpjO Unsecured credit, total return swaps, low level of regulatory protection $$ Mar 31, 2012
• Good 4 all of us RT @frankvoisin: My interview Research Magazine’s April issue: http://t.co/zioono6R Also features @VitaliyK @alephblog $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Bain Gave Staff Way to Swell IRAs by Investing in Deals http://t.co/4LlAExBt Letting employees in on the fun shares the wealth. Good $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Lying By Omission: Mutual Funds, Track Records & Departing Managers http://t.co/4MUyNRYs Track recrds shuld b suspended when critical ppl go Mar 29, 2012
• New from Aleph Blog A Pox on Promoted Stocks (2): By this time, I would think that it would be worth the the tim… http://t.co/DJkH6E4W Mar 28, 2012
• The Measured Approach to Value http://t.co/XiZOUMOn Features investors Vitaliy Katzenelson & Croft-Leominster, & smaller Frank Voisin & me Mar 28, 2012
• GoodHaven Realizes Its Vision http://t.co/zJVmCFMa The CIO of Markel, Tom Gayner showed them favor and invested with them. Good for them. $$ Mar 27, 2012
• What This Industry Needs is a Good Disruption http://t.co/imKDcElR There r a few areas of the financial industry that justify their fees $$ Mar 27, 2012
• Found PDF slide presentation: http://t.co/0GfhME7m The Market for Financial Advice: An Audit Study $$ Worth a read, paper not free @ SSRN Mar 26, 2012
• Treasuries Rise for Fourth Day on Global Growth Concern http://t.co/JYpanHTu Funny how the sentiment has reversed; who is surprised? $$ Mar 25, 2012

 

Monetary Policy

 

• @kyles09 No, not a believer in MMT, MMR, or neoclassical macro. 2 much aggregation, not everything happens at once, goods/services central + Mar 30, 2012
• @kyles09 and $$ only facilitates goods/services. Debt is important, but not central, some goods owned outright, w/no liabs. Money is a + Mar 30, 2012
• @kyles09 creation of a culture, not the government, because @ the edges, FX & commodities will crowd out bad currencies. MMT -> inflation $$ Mar 30, 2012
• What Does Bernanke Know? http://t.co/LydpOqk1 Introduces “The Guy Rate” http://t.co/zNVeUYmP Unemployment of older guys has hi costs Mar 29, 2012
• Demand for U.S. Debt Is Not Limitless http://t.co/NWKHcpCD In 2011, the Fed purchased 61% of Treasury issuance. That can’t last. $$ Mar 29, 2012
• Bitter Money Fights Shaped U.S History http://t.co/36jWnkQq Abandoning Gold Helped Dollar Gain Preeminence http://t.co/QbYMkTNL $$ Mar 28, 2012
• For the last tweet, those r2 good articles by Simon Johnson & James Kwak, authors of ?13 Bankers? & co-founders of The Baseline Scenario $$ Mar 28, 2012
• Housing bubbles and interest rates http://t.co/9TfzMpt2 Makes my point that asset price levels should be part of monetary policy $$ Mar 31, 2012

 

Banking & Finance

 

• FiveBooks Interviews > @Ritholtz on Causes of the Financial Crisis http://t.co/RQQZfHTz Many good perspectives from 6 authors on the crisis Mar 31, 2012
• Geithner?s Math Puzzle Beyond Numbers for DeMarco http://t.co/Eg9BjcgE Principal forgiveness would have moral hazard impacts. $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Why not make LIBOR off of binding offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group $10M short-term unsecured? Avg — LIBOR/LIBID $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Libor Links Deleted as UK Bank Group Backs Away From Rate http://t.co/HOy8TOof British Bankers? Association distances itself from LIBOR $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Branson?s Virgin Money Seen Disrupting U.K. Retail Banks http://t.co/bPcD8im7 Always been a Branson skeptic; he have audited financials? Mar 30, 2012
• Why not make LIBOR off of binding bids/offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group 10 million dollars sh? http://t.co/wK3HyopV Mar 29, 2012
• Is Hartford Financial’s market exit a death knell for the annuity crowd or just more Hartford haplessness? http://t.co/AUEVqxWQ Both. $$ Mar 29, 2012
• The Birth (and Death) of the Moral Age of Wall Street http://t.co/eStszd7i At one point the moral code of $GS had some meaning, not much now Mar 29, 2012
• @BarbarianCap More subtle than that; for insurance accounting &the concept of release from risk, it is the conservative side of realistic $$ Mar 27, 2012
• A Proposal for the Resolution of Systemically Important Assets and Liabilities: The Case of the Repo Market http://t.co/WYQGAVVx +1 $$ Mar 26, 2012
• But, disagree. Would b simpler and more effective to disallow repo financiers unrestricted access to collateral even in counterparty default Mar 26, 2012
• Obama Relies on Debt Collectors Profiting From Student Loan Woe http://t.co/pYWwgLq2 How independent debt collectors get people 2 pay $$ Mar 26, 2012
• A Bailout by Another Name http://nyti.ms/GRTNMM GSE writedowns would constitute a direct & sizable gift from taxpayers 2 the largest banks Mar 26, 2012
• Banks? preemptive strike against Dodd-Frank http://t.co/wjHW0nyv Banks adjusting strategies in order to keep doing as much biz as possible Mar 26, 2012
• MF?s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says http://t.co/cYaT9sHy The most likely cause may prove to b correct $$ #corzine Mar 26, 2012
• BOE’s Tucker: Rehypothecation Consequences ‘Under the Radar’ http://t.co/0X8ZQMMH Good. Rehypothecation should b reviewed, perhaps limited Mar 26, 2012
• @EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest I would still lay the blame @ the door of $GS mgmt. Could have grown via retained earnings &stayed private $$ Mar 26, 2012
• @EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest Also, there r real advantages 2 partnership culture in an investment bank; risk control works a lot better $$ Mar 26, 2012
• The Age of the Shadow Bank Run http://t.co/deJRQGgy Borrow short, lend long; clip a spread. Surprise! During the crisis you lose big! $$ Mar 25, 2012
• The Interest Rate Swaps that Are Bankrupting Local Governments http://t.co/yHQZ1r3u Not true. Gov’ts tried to minimize taxes w/swaps, failed Mar 25, 2012
• Three?s a Crowd http://t.co/KHtbrqpe Disagree w/the conclusion, because $GS did not have to go public; problem is mgmt, not shareholders $$ Mar 25, 2012

 

Pensions

 

• Brazil?s pension system http://t.co/90O97tQ4 They allow people to retire too early & offer too much. More unsustainable than Medicare $$ Mar 30, 2012
• @AlexRubalcava Perhaps a cash balance plan would do that. DB plans are not expensive because of explicit costs. They r expensive b/c + Mar 28, 2012
• @AlexRubalcava during boom times benefits look free and get set too high, leading to high costs in the bust phase & plan terminations. $$ Mar 28, 2012

 

Politics

 

• Obama Is a Loser Who Wins, Like FDR in 1936 http://t.co/K0x9go0T Don’t assume a bad economy insures the defeat of Obama. FDR won in ’36 $$ Mar 31, 2012
• The Rejection of Austerity Begins http://t.co/CgWKa9x6 Until failure, ppl vote 4 politicians who promise magic prosperity thru govt fiat $$ Mar 30, 2012
• Germany: The Final Frontier… Whose True Debt/GDP Is Now 140% http://t.co/KgW2d76E When you add up the guarantees, doesn’t look so good. $$ Mar 29, 2012
• Justices Suggest Parts of Health-Care Law May Be Thrown Out http://t.co/cMvKHR20 B best 2 throw the whole law out; let Congress start over Mar 29, 2012
• Contra: Court Can?t Let Broccoli Get in Way of Health Care Law http://t.co/5Yp2o8tB Sup Ct is moving 2 define interstate commerce better Mar 26, 2012
• Death Tax Defying http://t.co/FrkL5yLB Eliminate the estate tax; Tax everyone on unrealized capital gains. $$ Same result. Mar 25, 2012
• Intelligence community can keep data on Americans with no ties to terrorism for up to 5 years http://t.co/PCM7ldiG Stinks; call the ACLU $$ Mar 25, 2012

 

US Economy

 

• Why Natural-Gas Prices Could Fade to Red http://t.co/GApb0xie When everyone tries 2 frack @ once, there is too much natgas, price falls Mar 30, 2012
• US coal production declines as industry faces further stress http://t.co/l3WpZtDC Fracking has unpredictable consequences; affects energy $$ Mar 29, 2012
• Bidding Wars Erupt as U.S. Supply of Homes for Sale Falls http://t.co/JsgIdewr In certain locales, & on the low end, there r bidding wars Mar 29, 2012
• The Biggest Bellwether In The World Is Giving Some Ominous Comments About Growth http://t.co/vHWs9lwB $FDX says things r slowing down $$ Mar 29, 2012
• Planned Pipelines to Rival Keystone XL http://t.co/qQZ1Dsj2 Enterprise Products Partners & Enbridge may build competing pipelines $$ Mar 28, 2012
• ‘Pink slime’ producer suspends operations http://t.co/CvptYPhU Goes from 4 factories to 1. 600 people will probably lose their jobs $$ Mar 28, 2012
• @valuewalk @The_Analyst It is better for students to start small businesses. Forget economics, it is a waste. Profit/loss best teacher $$ Mar 27, 2012
• The Economic Surprise Index is now trending down http://t.co/eJCEEdvy @soberlook reminds us that not everything is going well $$ Mar 27, 2012

 

Miscellaneous

• Like it? I’ve actually bought cars that way! RT @mprobertson: http://t.co/UHdFL0Eu How to buy a car using game theory. very interesting. $$ Mar 31, 2012
• Eating Chocolate Regularly May Make You Leaner, Survey Suggests http://t.co/l8c6MMpA This means one dark chocolate Dove promise/day $$ Mar 27, 2012
• The second most dangerous people in the world are smart people with wrong postulates. Mar 25, 2012
• The most dangerous people in the world are politicians who peddle the views of the smart people with wrong postulates. $$ Mar 25, 2012
• Madoff FBI Files Reveal How He Fooled His Own Employees http://t.co/lmq2AoZG Gives hope to those accused; Madoff controlled data tightly. Mar 25, 2012