Weekly Sorted Tweeets – The Aleph Blog

Posted on 28 April 201229 April 2012 by David Merkel

Federal Reserve

Long Term U.S. Credit Boom Chart http://t.co/Ywub8HQH By bailing out short-term credit cycles, the Fed created a big asset bubble $$ Apr 28, 2012
Quantitative Deleting: The Fed’s $400 Billion ‘Gift’ http://t.co/qavtYcQy Fed’s actions lower cost of funding the US Treasury’s deficit 4now Apr 26, 2012
Bernanke Takes On Krugman?s Criticism Ignoring Own Advice http://t.co/AZ37nx1W Blind & Blinder $$ Apr 26, 2012
I think Ben needs one too. Barkeep, make that a double for the the Fed Chairman! $$ RT @soooouuuuurrrrr: @AlephBlog I need a drink. Apr 25, 2012
That’s all folks — the FOMC show is over!! $$ Apr 25, 2012
Stocks loving Bernanke, who says he doesn’t act to please markets, but I think that he does, b/c he aims to reduces rates & spreads $$ Apr 25, 2012
Good Qs on Labor force participation rate and the “bond bubble.” Bernanke obfuscates. Apr 25, 2012
But the real canard here with the enhanced guidance is that the Fed is poor at forecasting & consistently drags toward current conditions $$ Apr 25, 2012
When will Fed “transparency” finally be understood to not mean “increased reliability?” Apr 25, 2012
Interesting that long Treasuries r rallying off of the FOMC second stmt after falling on the first. Not much difference between the 2. $$ Apr 25, 2012
So, short-term inflation up, LT unch. ST Unemp down, LT unch. ST GDP up, 2013-4 down, LT unch. Tightening 6 mos closer than Jan, FF path up Apr 25, 2012
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, PCE average change 2012-14 +0.22%, +.10%, +.09%, longer run 0% (natch) $$ Apr 25, 2012
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, unemployment average change 2012-14 -0.40%, -.21%, -.08%, longer run -.01% $$ Apr 25, 2012
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, GDP average change 2012-14 0.16%, -.08%, -.24%, longer run 0% $$ Apr 25, 2012
The enhanced guidance of the FOMC is causing more confusion than enhancing understanding $$ Apr 25, 2012
Overview of FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy; Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming 6 months sooner than Jan12 Apr 25, 2012
Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End average change 2012-2014, +.015%, +.044%, +.206%, long-run -.015% $$ Apr 25, 2012
PDF isn’t as friendly as HTML… but that’s probably intentional on the part of the Fed. $$ Apr 25, 2012
here they are, Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents http://t.co/OzeYZbRa $$ Apr 25, 2012
Clocks must be slow at the Fed’s website… Apr 25, 2012
Bond/stock trading bots set loose within the next minute! Apr 25, 2012
@bondscoop When the FOMC said they would do this, I said “Do they really get what they are setting themselves up for?” Tight coupling. Apr 25, 2012
@bondscoop Thanks. I’ve got the ancillary data loaded into a spreadsheet to make a quick comparison Apr 25, 2012
@bondscoop That’s not out yet, right? Apr 25, 2012
Redacted Version of the April 2012 FOMC Statement http://t.co/wJbPNf5P Shaded up views on housing, inflation & global financial risk. $$ Apr 25, 2012
Of course, that can only last so long as inflation stays low. Brian Wesbury thinks inflation might be rising http://t.co/YfLFURA3 $$ Apr 24, 2012
Gundlach Says Fed Won?t Preemptively Raise Rates http://t.co/YTfjQ6Wj W/debt building up 1 thing saving us: interest rate collapsing $$ Apr 24, 2012
There r historical accidents. The worst that we r dealing w/is Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman with his mistaken views on the Great Depression! Apr 24, 2012
Awash in money and piles of debt http://t.co/C9hbSWmf Up next: More QE, financial repression, inflation, deficit spending -> stagflation $$ Apr 23, 2012
$$ Coming soon +1 RT @ReformedBroker: Hilsenrath: After-Hours Sell-Off in Netflix Pushes Fed Governors Toward to Further Easing… $NFLX Apr 23, 2012

China

Are these companies feeling the Chinese slowdown? http://t.co/bIO0m2vF Machinery companies: Volvo, ABB, $CAT seeing China orders fall $$ Apr 26, 2012
China Internet Crackdown Silences Another http://t.co/ukw0qzWg More closure of accts found 2b spreading ?malicious political rumors.? $$ Apr 26, 2012
Why Wukan Will Remain a One-off http://t.co/LO3tK7kT Optimistic piece shows when there is enough pressure in China, change can happen $$ Apr 26, 2012
China Tire Demand Slows as Economy Decelerates, Bridgestone Says http://t.co/yUK3UEye Q is how much things slow for the Chinese economy $$ Apr 26, 2012
China Escalates Crackdown On Internet Amid Scandal http://t.co/QblN4v3S China wants the internet 4 its economy, but not its politics $$ Apr 26, 2012
China and Social Media Today vs. Japan bubble in 80s http://t.co/0uxQ40xV Vitaliy Katzenelson shares his reasoning on bubbles $$ Apr 26, 2012
Why China’s Economic Policies Are a Failure: Andy Xie http://t.co/WZjILv4J Building redundant capacity, cronyism, recipe for disaster $$ Apr 25, 2012
China Hidden Liabilities for Central Government Seen @ CNY10.94Trl http://t.co/gaqD4suu Opaque governments w/lots of debt can b trouble 2 $$ Apr 25, 2012
Shide Group Mired in Financing Crisis, Massive Debt http://t.co/Iws3h9Ec Beware complex companies w/lots of debt. Default probs higher $$ Apr 25, 2012
The Startling Plight of China’s Leftover Ladies http://t.co/WWK3en7R Leftover Chinese men r not good enuf 4 them, even w/sex ratio tilted $$ Apr 24, 2012
Behind a Chinese City’s Growth, Heavy Debt http://t.co/6eKX3kJp Bo Xilai leaves behind a legacy of debt 4 taxpayers to fund $$ #surprise Apr 23, 2012
Cities get a sinking feeling: report http://t.co/xQE2d46k If China’s cities aren’t careful about their water tables, they’re sunk 😉 $$ Apr 23, 2012
Can China Reflate the Housing Market? http://t.co/rMtYHX0Y Maybe one more time, but eventually you can’t resuscitate a corpse $$ Apr 23, 2012
US barnyards help China super-size food production http://t.co/38GkPJ0T China builds protein industry by purchasing live animals from US $$ Apr 23, 2012
Beijing’s Cracked Consensus http://t.co/1Xep2j6s Don’t assume the fall of Bo Xilai 2b 2big; the CC Party still fights 4 the CC Party $$ Apr 23, 2012
Farmers Retool to Feed China http://t.co/c0loHf82 Dairy processors make longer-lasting milk powder 2sell2 China. They like almonds 2 $$ Apr 23, 2012
China May Finally Let Its People Move More Freely http://t.co/fiTQgY5c Of hukou: how China uses household registration 4 control purposes Apr 23, 2012
The End of China’s One-Child Policy? http://t.co/dK7sUMTq China is getting old before it gets rich. Toxic combo. Watch wages rise. $$ Apr 23, 2012
The China Rising Leaders Project http://t.co/QuKsr7w2 Very long piece giving very detailed info on next generation of China’s leaders $$ Apr 23, 2012
China?s Biggest Banks Are Squeezed for Capital http://t.co/uveB69fJ Too much and overaggressive lending strains their balance sheets $$ Apr 24, 2012

Eurozone

Spain’s current unemployment rate exceeds the US rate during the Great Depression http://t.co/bj86umZp Ugly chart: http://t.co/M6uchbAx $$ Apr 28, 2012
Why Spain Won’t Reform http://t.co/aIuYUctZ Cultural argument that Madrid historically does not act on problems outside of Madrid $$ Apr 28, 2012
Rising Italy-to-Spain Yields Keep Banks on Life Support http://t.co/kSdshke5 Many banks simply cannot refinance their maturing debt $$ Apr 25, 2012
Continuing flow of capital out of Greece http://t.co/psvzWbJk E.g. Greek refineries r unable to obtain credit & rely on Iran for crude $$ Apr 25, 2012
Spanish property crisis will require Ireland-style banking system recapitalization http://t.co/pDLNF2X7 But who has the money 2do it? $$ Apr 23, 2012
Bundesbank?s Weidmann Says What No EU Politician Wants to Hear http://t.co/ecLHlLIJ EZone monetary policy loose; fiscal union negligible Apr 23, 2012
Holland, Not Hollande, Is Europe’s Latest Worry http://t.co/AeQtOIVv If Dutch don’t care 4 austerity, little hope 4 rest of the EZone $$ Apr 23, 2012

Pensions

How Retirement Benefits May Sink the States http://t.co/oIEsAWhh Companies emigrate 2 states where future tax pressures r lower $$ #bye Apr 28, 2012
Point Man on Pensions http://t.co/DaXsdkgx PBGC director has experience in restructuring; serves him well negotiating w/dud companies Apr 23, 2012
Tidbit in last article: FV of DB pension liabs for $SWY > market cap. Actuarial profession goofed on DB plans valuations; ests r liberal $$ Apr 23, 2012
The Multiheaded Pension Monster http://t.co/oBDNBZYN Multiemployer DB plans- not enough coverage: moral hazard, low PBGC guarantees $$ Apr 23, 2012

Energy

Chevron sticks with oil. And it pays off. http://t.co/uUlsjbBK FD: + $CVX | That said, buy & hold conventional NG could b good idea now $$ Apr 28, 2012
Tough Talks Loom at Chesapeake http://t.co/OkMGyu8J Having a CEO who has differing interests from common shareholders is a risk $CHK $$ Apr 28, 2012
Saudi oil puzzle, continued http://t.co/z76fSKTZ Prices r high, but the Saudis keep stockpiling oil. Why? $$ #idunno #gouging #painfreak Apr 25, 2012

Information Issues

Saudi Clerics Out-Tweet Liberals Forcing King to Balance http://t.co/A1TcHeSJ Don’t underestimate the influence of Wahhabi Islam. $$ Apr 26, 2012
Google Stores, Syncs, Edits in the Cloud http://t.co/BrRSauno Walter Mossberg likes $GOOG Drive, thinks $MSFT Skydrive worth a try $$ Apr 25, 2012
PGP Creator Phil Zimmermann Has a New Venture Called Silent Circle http://t.co/KNJQJ4X4 There?s also a promise of no backdoors 4 anyone $$ Apr 24, 2012
A New Email Encryption App Your Network Admin Might Not Like http://t.co/7b967z7e Enlocked can encrypt email w/a click, could go viral $$ Apr 24, 2012
Surveillance State evils http://t.co/BKkmM78J Don’t say anything that you don’t want the government 2 know. Repeal the Patriot Act! $$ Apr 23, 2012
Astounding. Reprogram it $$ RT @AnnieLowrey: This essay awarded a perfect score by a robo-grader is just delightful. http://t.co/Vc1ORC8T Apr 23, 2012

Company Issues

Heat Turned Up on Falcone http://t.co/zaiW1Jzu The deal w/the devil comes due for payment; Falcone faces checkmate or LS bankruptcy $$ Apr 28, 2012
Woes at Law Firm Deepen http://t.co/to4dZbJY Dewey & LeBoeuf’s troubles w/debt & revenue shrinkage. Law does not work well 4 big biz $$ Apr 28, 2012
Health Insurers to Give Back $1.2 Billion, Goldman Says http://t.co/VX0V9sL9 health overhaul limits <20% premium for expenses & profit $$ Apr 26, 2012
US Airways Said to Approach AMR Bondholders on Merger http://t.co/iArkC4nq The unsec bondholders r the economic equity of $AAMRQ now $LCC Apr 25, 2012
Genworth Credibility Eroded as Australia Plan Shelved http://t.co/oyJJ4OCC I’ve almost always ben a sceptic on $GNW. Toxic lines of biz $$ Apr 24, 2012
Google Unveils Drive Storage Service http://t.co/5R1CAkR0 I use Microsoft Skydrive as a real time backup of my files. $$’ Apr 24, 2012
MGIC Posts $19.6 Million Loss as Borrowers Struggle on Loans http://t.co/fvoY6cZN Regulators should halt $MTG’s ability 2 write new biz $$ Apr 23, 2012

Rest of the World

Bubble Down Under? http://t.co/jk4UBFzA ?Name a credit bubble built on a commodity bull market built on a bigger Chinese credit bubble?? Apr 26, 2012
North Korea Poised to Rattle Region With Nuclear Blast http://t.co/MJmALgYi Will believe when it happens; NK always seems 2 get tech wrong Apr 26, 2012
Swiss housing market inching towards bubble http://t.co/KCbYrs6x Makes me wonder when the Swiss Central Bank will break its Euro peg $$ Apr 24, 2012

Financial Markets

Conference Notes http://t.co/VF5FIPOg On 4/13, Chicago Booth held its 7th Annual Distressed Investing & Restructuring Conference. $$ Apr 26, 2012
No surprise when they only put 3.5% down $$ RT @pdacosta: Falling home prices drag new buyers under water http://t.co/bayZVELO Apr 26, 2012
TARP Profit A Myth, Claims TARP Inspector General Christy Romero http://t.co/iv77kkne Q is related to foreclosure prevention aid & GSEs $$ Apr 26, 2012
My Sister?s Pension Assets and Agency Problems by Jeremy Grantham http://t.co/ANDMdZae On the value of a non-constrained mandate $$ Apr 25, 2012
Force Fed by Ben Inker of GMO, last 3 pgs of http://t.co/ANDMdZae Goes through the problems of Asset Allocation with yields so low $$ Apr 25, 2012
Wall Street Promotes Junk Bonds as Europe Erupts http://t.co/5kIRG7Oi grabbing for yield — it’s the national pastime! $$ Apr 25, 2012
US 10 Year Bond Yielding 0.5% http://t.co/Zrnj9zdL Japan scenario for the US? The 10Y at 0.5% seems farfetched, but everyone hates bonds $$ Apr 25, 2012
REITs Spring an Unnerving Surprise http://t.co/qgStDii0 I’ve warned b4 on Private REITs http://t.co/liQr20vq More bad surprises coming $$ Apr 25, 2012
So, if Egan-Jones did do ABS & governments, that would have been news to me. Surprising to see the SEC going after them $$ Apr 25, 2012
Credit Rater Egan-Jones Lied, SEC Charges http://t.co/c1ym3feC Firm was known 4 its corporate bond ratings by a contingent claims model $$ Apr 25, 2012
Misleading ETFs http://t.co/Z8uKHfA7 Buyer beware, read your prospectuses and semi/annual reports; go to the sponsor websites 4 more data $$ Apr 24, 2012
Who Gets the Equity Risk Premium? http://t.co/gqdPYexG LT holders, brokers, taxes, firms that issue & retire shares at inopportune times $$ Apr 24, 2012
Commodities don’t provide “diversification” in a crisis http://t.co/7ue9vvjJ Commodities provided diversification when few did it; no more Apr 23, 2012

Catastrophe Bonds

@merrillmatter If I ran a life insurance portfolio, a closed end fund, an open end HY fund, I would buy cat bonds, u need a balance sheet $$ Apr 24, 2012
@merrillmatter With all the goofy ETFs issued, surely someone could create $CATB, the Cat bond ETF. Would b very tough 2 source bonds 4 $$ Apr 23, 2012
@merrillmatter That’s why many high yield funds buy them w/both hands. Also special hedge funds that tear Cat bonds apart 2 get the best $$ Apr 23, 2012

The Perils of Sitting

On the sitting kills you piece, would like to get a copy. Est’d increase in death rate from 0.76% to 1.06%/yr. Big %, not so big absolute $$ Apr 23, 2012
Confirmed: He Who Sits the Most Dies the Soonest http://t.co/aif1e8xX I found this article worrisome. I sit > half of my waking hours. $$ Apr 23, 2012

US Economy

New Mad-Cow Discovery Stirs Fears http://t.co/DPm6aLzI This story will have legs, 4 2b exact. 😉 Beef will b down until scope clears $$ Apr 25, 2012
On the Social Security 2012 Report to Congress http://t.co/RPG3qz1p Age <53 today can expect to get 75% of the value a baby boomer got $$ Apr 24, 2012
Rosenberg: U.S. Clients View Canada as ?51st State? http://t.co/EqVvLFpX Careful, w/rates so low, housing is looking bubbly & banks?? $$ Apr 24, 2012
Fees and Anger Rise in California Water War http://t.co/9GjE5jwx Bad geography to get water to, unless you want to try desalinization. $$ Apr 24, 2012
@moorehn Heidi, I was 1 of the 8 bloggers @ the 1st blogger summit at the Treasury, & not 1 of the noisier ones. I spoke twice in the 90mins Apr 24, 2012
@moorehn So here is my Q4 Geithner: How do we get out of the entitlements crisis? We have promises equal to 4-5x GDP!? [Amid the deficit] $$ Apr 24, 2012
Housing market no longer yours for a steal http://t.co/xb2E2JIy Low end res RE is not accepting lowball offers to buy as it used to $$ Apr 23, 2012
You Won’t BELIEVE How Bearish Investors Are On Treasuries http://t.co/q9t2sZdE 2% bullish, 81% bearish in Barron’s poll. FD: + $TLT $$ Apr 23, 2012

Miscellaneous

US College Education Bubble, Planning for the Wrong Future http://t.co/BScEbQJI But many smaller job fields req college & pay well. $$ Apr 28, 2012
Hong Kong Glued to ?Bride Wannabes? http://t.co/6p9RCs0X Reality TV aids lovelorn 30-something women, ending w/a mass marriage 4 some $$ Apr 26, 2012
But really, with Agriculture doing so well in the US, isn’t it time to finally cut farm subsidies? And beef up (oops) USDA food safety? $$ Apr 25, 2012
Government Keeps Picking Winners, Losers on the Farm http://t.co/PKiJBHIp Farmer complains healthy food gets less subsidy than unhealthy Apr 25, 2012