Sorted Weekly Tweets – The Aleph Blog

Posted on 1 June 2012 by David Merkel

Maryland vs. Illinois

@AmyResnick One more note: MD benefits from the presence of Johns Hopkins, biotech, NIH, the REIT industry, hotel industry, etc. $$ Jun 02, 2012
@AmyResnick Martin O’Malley spoke2the Baltimore CFA society. Slick. Made many of us wonder if we lived in the same state that he governs $$ Jun 02, 2012
@AmyResnick That’s true.We live next to the US money sink, DC, and we profit from the woes of the nation along with Virginia. $$ Jun 02, 2012
@AmyResnick If my state passed a budget like that, I would b ill & annoyed. Oh wait, I live in the People’s Republic of Maryland. Never mind Jun 02, 2012

Companies

GM cuts $26bn from pension liability http://t.co/wL7hlRab $GM buys annuities from $PRU, and cashes out other pensioners; amazing gain. $$ Jun 02, 2012
Groupon Sinks to New Low as Lock-Up Expires http://t.co/NuE7dA9b A $GRPN share is now cheaper than the amount 1 can save w/a Groupon. 😉 $$ Jun 01, 2012
Chesapeake Valuation Seen Luring Major Deal http://t.co/1n6fnjzZ Natural gas assets r not worth as much; too much marginal cheap supply $$ May 31, 2012
Toyota Tsunami Recovery to Be Seen in 93% U.S. Sales Gain http://t.co/UlO4SSzC $TM stock below where it was one year ago, as w/many autos $$ May 31, 2012
“Chesapeake?s equity and net debt was valued yesterday at $9.19 for each barrel of oil equivalent” Key phrase: “barr? http://t.co/KAcfGoyH May 31, 2012
@TheStreetHub @abnormalreturns will publish my pick 4 the next decade next week. It may not beat $CHK, but there is less risk to it. $$ May 31, 2012
@TheStreetHub Once fracking starts, difficult2turn off economically; there r a lot of places to frack; don’t c NG prices rising anytime soon May 31, 2012
$JPM CIO Swaps Pricing Said 2 Differ From Investment Bank http://t.co/4jgUCTry via @BloombergNews | Not2surprising since trades moved market May 31, 2012
Icahn?s Chesapeake Stake Puts Governance Before Value http://t.co/csRUxisS Icahn has his own version of “doing well by doing good.” $$ $CHK May 31, 2012
Toll Buying Half of a 2,379-Home California Subdivision http://t.co/RDIUQiNK ?There?s not much inventory now in Orange County…? $$ May 31, 2012

Miscellaneous

Heavy rain on Baltimore. Just went out with 3 of my kids. We dug a trench diverting water awa from the house. Boy, did we get wet & dirty $$ Jun 01, 2012
@Alpha_Rook I was proud of their initiative & that they executed my idea, and not theirs, which would not have worked. Yes, it was fun. $$ Jun 02, 2012
Dating Shanghai-Style Draws 38,000 Hopefuls as Weddings Fall http://t.co/ECmp4ppU More men than women, but fewer desirable men than women $$ Jun 01, 2012
Indian-American wins U.S. Spelling Bee http://t.co/ZkjzSSAP Nandipati became the 5th consecutive Indian-American winner & 10th of last 14 $$ Jun 01, 2012
Defectors Cast New Light on Korean Camps http://t.co/TOQtTM3s US intervenes in so many places; one that is @ the top of the list ignored $$ May 31, 2012
Thx, I’m Touched & Impressed $$ RT @valueprax: Notes – AlephBlog Digest #1 – David Merkel On Corporate Bonds ( #bonds http://t.co/vXSPiApn ) May 31, 2012
Energy assets in front line of cyber war http://t.co/4UZG5wJx Ability2use stuxnet2take over SCADA systems running energy/utility assets risk May 31, 2012
10 Things Presidential Candidates Won’t Say http://t.co/8l3tPGEz 1. “I’m powerless to change the economy.” Honest talk u will never hear $$ May 29, 2012
For Healthy Eating, Bitter Is Better http://t.co/A3gPQIYV “It’s also the first step toward eating a broader, healthier diet.” $$ May 28, 2012
Sudan, South Sudan Trade Accusations Ahead of Crisis Talks http://t.co/XFpu79GQ Unless there is a way to share oil revenues, war is possible May 28, 2012
Funds May Wrong-Way Bets Before Price Slump http://t.co/u3garjlL ?surprising to see so much on the long side…trend is down in commodities” May 28, 2012
Why ‘Value’ Stocks Lag http://t.co/Uy5nwkC8 After reading this article & the comments on it, I still don’t get value is doing poorly $$ May 28, 2012
@felixsalmon I would be honored to have you as a client. I’ve done well over the last 12 years, but not the last 16 months. $$ May 27, 2012

Eurozone

Euro Area Is Running Significant Risk of Breakup, Rehn Says http://t.co/1Wx5nAEq Presence of negative German short rates is a danger sign $$ Jun 01, 2012
Negative interest rates are like antimatter. They never exist for too long, and the presence of a lot of them means things r dangerous $$ Jun 01, 2012
Berlusconi Says ECB Must Print Euros or Italy May Say ?Ciao? http://t.co/a1sAsDIJ Taking aim @ those who ejected him, back in the hunt $$ Jun 01, 2012
@The_Dumb_Money It’s the 5%+ spread over bund yields that gets people antsy; it indicates a crisis in Italian ability to pay; unstable. $$ Jun 01, 2012
“German 2-yr yields fell below 0 for the 1st time this wk while the yield on similar-maturity Spanish notes rose 11.8 bps to 5.11% today” $$ Jun 01, 2012
It may be wrong, and may harm Italy deeply, but it makes for great politics by encouraging popular resentment of fore? http://t.co/0xm4RY5l Jun 01, 2012
Why France Has So Many 49-Employee Companies http://t.co/nKcECoQK “Sir, we r up to 49 again, shall I start another new company?” “Oui!” $$ May 31, 2012
Spain Ejects Clean-Power Industry With Europe Precedent http://t.co/SFhWg1lF Amazing what happens when u stop subsidies;companies fold/leave May 31, 2012
Iceland Property Bubble Grows With Currency Controls http://t.co/o5IUO1hF Classic. Trapped cash needs 2 protect value so buys real estate $$ May 31, 2012
ECB Opposes Spain Bank Idea http://t.co/Vx9tdeua Spain has reached its notional credit limit, can’t borrow more w/o driving rates up $$ May 31, 2012
EU Proposes ‘Banking Union’ http://t.co/3lK74rxE This is an easy thing to propose, but hard to achieve without nations giving up power $$ May 31, 2012
Greek Democratic Left Demands Euro Pledge to Back Syriza http://t.co/cmkcflzR They dream that they can stay in Euro, and not pay promises $$ May 29, 2012
Leveraged Loan Defaults May Surge to 25% in Europe, Moody?s Says http://t.co/vUpMQisS If credit tightens in Europe, many defaults come $$ May 29, 2012
Greek Pro-Bailout Parties Gain Amid Euro Collapse Concern http://t.co/Ta2m8TDC “Greece is the only country…we can say it?s a failed state” May 28, 2012
Spain roundup: http://t.co/WtGRfFDP & http://t.co/KGwBE4gY & http://t.co/MvlXpx2R Credit situation for Spain as a whole is troubled $$ May 28, 2012
Unsecured Creditors Face Losses in EU?s Plan for Failing Banks http://t.co/xCQFqJqv No free lunch; watch unsec rates rise 4 bonds & CP $$ May 28, 2012
@japhychron No decoupling there that I can see. The likely credit panic is in Europe, with limited spillover the US. $$ May 27, 2012

Financial Sector

Regulators Adopt New Tools to Prevent Another Flash Crash http://t.co/8aClpGWw These regulations seem reasonable. I’m not used 2 saying that Jun 02, 2012
Volcker Rule? We need a Slurpee Rule http://t.co/a1GNBm7e “Lose $1B -> lose your job.” Great, can we apply this 2 government officials 2? $$ Jun 01, 2012
Bank says: We?re defaulting, but don?t you dare! http://t.co/PmYEk4kW Strange that many think they don’t have to pay if their creditor is BK Jun 01, 2012
Insurance Supervisors Ready to Identify Too-Big-To-Fail Insurers http://t.co/bve0otvq Less risk than banks; liab structures can’t acelr8 $$ May 31, 2012
Woman Who Couldn?t Be Intimidated by Citigroup Wins $31 Million http://t.co/CaznlXxA Post-2008 $C employee blows whistle onlousy mtges $$ May 31, 2012
Look for corporate incest, where capital structures are interlaced between parent & subsidiaries. $AIG had that in sp? http://t.co/2zz1qwmo May 31, 2012

Speculating on the Long Bond

@shamir_k @SoberLook Only 10% of my portfolio; ask u what I asked Shiller, Hoisington & Lacy Hunt: when do u leave? $$ FD: +$TLT Jun 01, 2012
@SoberLook I have too many friends who were burned on $TBT, it will b right eventually… but the trade was 2 popular amid deflation $$ Jun 01, 2012
@SoberLook True enough. I just sold my last TIPS. $TIP Thinking of kicking out my last chunk of $TLT. FD: Long $TLT (me & clients) Jun 01, 2012
Ten-Year Treasury Yield Hits Record Low http://t.co/xkfc1JP2 The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield sank to an all-time low of 1.659% $$ May 31, 2012
CHART OF THE NIGHT: What A Difference A Year Makes http://t.co/VLqVDCiK Global deflation drives people2grab 4 predictable income streams $$ May 31, 2012

Federal Reserve

He’s pretty connected $$ RT @pdacosta: Done deal? Morgan Stanley Fedster Reinhart now sees 80 percent chance of Fed easing in June. Jun 01, 2012
Rosengren Says Renewed Fed Operation Twist to Spur Growth http://t.co/5lz5Zwof If we all clap Tinkerbell will live! Hasn’t worked yet… $$ Jun 01, 2012
They assume that lowering long Treasury rates will aid growth; it did not work in the Great Depression & WWII. The Fe? http://t.co/IYHxbtML Jun 01, 2012

On Gold

David Einhorn Mocks Warren Buffett?s Stance on Gold http://t.co/JreRqj49 Good piece, I have questioned it as well: http://t.co/jNVrf700 $$ Jun 01, 2012
@vjnttp That’s why I included a link to my article on the topic; it’s more complicated than what Buffett wrote in his annual report $$ Jun 02, 2012

My Goof on NFP

@andrewhorowitz I don’t trust the ADP #s. My model uses 4 wk avg of jobless claims, adjusts4past model errors b/c errors r autocorrelated $$ Jun 01, 2012
@andrewhorowitz Yes, a little above consensus, that’s what the models show, personally I’m more bearish but the models r better than me. $$ Jun 01, 2012
@Estimize I looked at estimize for a place to lodge an NFP est, and couldn’t find it. Do you do those? May 31, 2012
@joelight It’s a blend of 2 models which have different error properties — their point estimates r 145 & 171K. Don’t know CI 4 combined $$ May 31, 2012
I don’t do this often, but here goes — projecting NFP at +158K +/- 13K May 31, 2012

US Economics

RE: @SoberLook This is what stagflation looks like.? Copper reacts to GDP. Gold reacts to real rates. http://t.co/JODgLATu Jun 01, 2012
The Surprising Global Shortage of Skilled Workers http://t.co/6fnJOUZb There r skilled workers w/o work, they don’t have the *right* skills May 31, 2012
Some people kvetch. Some start their own firms, and hire people that don’t kvetch, with skills that match.? The latte? http://t.co/XO57VQa2 May 31, 2012
Totally agree, let govts protect depositors @ most, not banks RT @simonconstable: also a stupid thing to propose. Bust companies should fail May 31, 2012

Rest of the World

Dumb: China?s Blog Censorship Rules Have U.S. Parallels http://t.co/eDmN4L4X Even in colonial times restrictions on speech in US were modest Jun 01, 2012
Intervention From Rupee to Real Shows Focus on Inflation http://t.co/Mr5sIquM Emerging Markets face inflation & policy tightens, currs rise May 31, 2012
China Has No Plan for Large Stimulus to Counter Slowdown http://t.co/Zzo9hzRG Maybe they figured out extending more loans won’t help growth May 31, 2012
Egypt’s Next Leader Won’t Be A Creature of Tahrir Square http://t.co/8UEP48Vg Revolution in Egypt subverted by military & muslim brotherhood May 28, 2012

US Politics

Startup Act Shows Silicon Valley Clout Growing in DC http://t.co/mJYKPeGu How Silicon Valley pushed 4 the JOBS Act. Scammers, PE rejoice $$ May 31, 2012
Note: the same thing will happen in 10-15 years to Social Security, but it will b cut by 25%. http://t.co/PpV5XGqO A series of bad surprises May 29, 2012
Congress Unwilling to Address Disability Plan?s Shortfall http://t.co/WrtxovbX In a few years, disability payments will b cut by 21%. $$ May 29, 2012